NDP Launch New Attack Ads - Justin Trudeau, he just lost my vote

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terrytowel
NDP Launch New Attack Ads - Justin Trudeau, he just lost my vote

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terrytowel

The NDP is going after Liberal-leaning voters in an aggressive series of targeted radio ads airing for the first time this week that accuse party Leader Justin Trudeau of having bad judgment.

The three new radio ads begin with narrators who describe themselves as voters who were initially open to supporting Mr. Trudeau, but are now having second thoughts.

The ads raise doubts about Trudeau judgment over C-51, charging fees for speeches and Southwestern Ontario's auto sector.

Go to link to hear the ads

http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/new-ndp-radio-ads-aggressi...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Yes. Let's keep the NDP/Liberal pissing contest going for the next 3 weeks while Harper quietly eases to another majority.

Cut out the bullshit and attack the real enemy,FFS!

Ciabatta2

And done.  It is over for the NDP in Ontario for good.  They don't understand the double standards that make them look bad for this kind of advertizing.  They're going to get roasted for this Conservative style of advertizing.

Last election the NDP's anti Liberal ads worked because they were jokey and lighthearted and cartoony.  This would have transferred well to Trudeau critiques, because he is a bit of a loon.

But this is Harper stuff that isn't even working this election.  I feel bad for so many of the NDP candidates.  Tough.

The question now for them is will they be able to hold in Hamilton and Windsor and northern Ontario?

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Cut out the bullshit and attack the real enemy,FFS!

Harper is surely the one we should all be the most mad at.

But I think that at a certain point you've either convinced Harper supporters to defect, or you just never will.  I don't think that, three weeks before "X" day, all that many conservatives are just waiting for a good reason to stop being conservatives.

Seems like, in the U.S., some conservatives are rallying behind Donald Trump.  DONALD TRUMP.  If they can support DONALD TRUMP then what plain and simple argument would you suppose will put a "Hillary4Prez" t-shirt on their back?  Same with Harper, I think.  A certain segment of his support is like permafrost.

 

ctrl190

It's worth a shot. It's a far more offensive approach than Horwarth took when she was being coined "Rob Ford Lite." 

bekayne

terrytowel wrote:

The NDP is going after Liberal-leaning voters in an aggressive series of targeted radio ads airing for the first time this week that accuse party Leader Justin Trudeau of having bad judgment.

The three new radio ads begin with narrators who describe themselves as voters who were initially open to supporting Mr. Trudeau, but are now having second thoughts.

The ads raise doubts about Trudeau judgment over C-51, charging fees for speeches and Southwestern Ontario's auto sector.

And these "voters" only found out now?

Ciabatta2

Yeah, just so totally mindless.  You would have thought that the NDP would have only attacked the Conservatives and just ignored the Liberals.

Pondering

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Cut out the bullshit and attack the real enemy,FFS!

Harper is surely the one we should all be the most mad at.

But I think that at a certain point you've either convinced Harper supporters to defect, or you just never will.  I don't think that, three weeks before "X" day, all that many conservatives are just waiting for a good reason to stop being conservatives.

Seems like, in the U.S., some conservatives are rallying behind Donald Trump.  DONALD TRUMP.  If they can support DONALD TRUMP then what plain and simple argument would you suppose will put a "Hillary4Prez" t-shirt on their back?  Same with Harper, I think.  A certain segment of his support is like permafrost.

Harper has been in third place more than once. Keeping him there is the NDP's best bet on living either at 24 Sussex or Stornoway.

Pondering

Ciabatta2 wrote:

And done.  It is over for the NDP in Ontario for good.  They don't understand the double standards that make them look bad for this kind of advertizing.  They're going to get roasted for this Conservative style of advertizing.

It isn't a double standard it's a different base of voters, different demographic.

Sean in Ottawa

Personally I think these ads are terrible on several grounds and the opposite of what the party should do.

BTW I hate the pretend voter ads to start with.The pretend switching voter ads are not believable at all.

I imagine the Liberals will be pleased with these ads. So will Harper.

 

 

Ciabatta2

Pondering wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

And done.  It is over for the NDP in Ontario for good.  They don't understand the double standards that make them look bad for this kind of advertizing.  They're going to get roasted for this Conservative style of advertizing.

It isn't a double standard it's a different base of voters, different demographic.

No, it is the same demographic and is a double standard.  People have a higher expectation of the NDP - their principles, platform, commitments, conduct.  That is partly set by the NDP but also by the public perception of the NDP's role and values.  Hence the "centrist" critique of a party that hasn't really moved anywhere in the last 8 years. I stand by my assertion that the NDP is failing, in part, by having campaigns run by so many people that don't understand the party and its dynamics - such as this one.

Aside, these ads I've listened again and they are amateurish and awful and vapid.  Ouch.  It was the time to go positive and not only did they go negative, they went negative in an ineffective, embarassing way that will lose them votes.  The NDP's internal polling must be *horrendous*.

The Liberals would be smart to respond in-kind with through their online posters and messageboard spammers about how the NDP just lost their votes due to not attacking Harper.  (Of course they're already at it - hence the original post and poster in this thread!)

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Yeah, just so totally mindless.  You would have thought that the NDP would have only attacked the Conservatives and just ignored the Liberals.

The NDP AND the Liberals need to back off and put their energy into shooting holes in the Conservative bubble.

There is nothing to gain from attacking each other. As a matter of fact,they have everything to lose with these stupid attack ads.

takeitslowly

terrytowel, girl please.  i still remember how you yelled at every thread back a few months ago how the liberals is over. I am really tired of your drama queen antics. No one really ever thought you would vote for the NDP. You are all over the damn map just like Justin. You are such a prime madonna, girlfriend.

 

I dont like attack ads, if that is one. I still believe we can win  and run a positive campaign.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Harper has been in third place more than once. Keeping him there is the NDP's best bet on living either at 24 Sussex or Stornoway.

It's hard to disagree with that.  But my point was that winning over those diehard Con supporters isn't as easy as singing them a lovely Socialism song.

Pondering

Ciabatta2 wrote:

No, it is the same demographic and is a double standard.  People have a higher expectation of the NDP - their principles, platform, commitments, conduct.  That is partly set by the NDP but also by the public perception of the NDP's role and values.  Hence the "centrist" critique of a party that hasn't really moved anywhere in the last 8 years. I stand by my assertion that the NDP is failing, in part, by having campaigns run by so many people that don't understand the party and its dynamics - such as this one.

Aside, these ads I've listened again and they are amateurish and awful and vapid.  Ouch.  It was the time to go positive and not only did they go negative, they went negative in an ineffective, embarassing way that will lose them votes.  The NDP's internal polling must be *horrendous*.

The Liberals would be smart to respond in-kind with through their online posters and messageboard spammers about how the NDP just lost their votes due to not attacking Harper.  (Of course they're already at it - hence the original post and poster in this thread!)

To some extent on expectations you are right:

Vote Conservative for low taxes, law and order, take care of your own.

Vote Liberal for moderation, fiscal conservatism, strong government services, socially liberal.

Vote NDP for? What?

But I'm right too. The NDP is most popular among young people and the more educated. Neither of these constituencies responds well to this style of politics.

Many of these people are also ABC voters, or "change" voters as they have been dubbed.

Headlines like "Harper and Mulcair bash Trudeau" are not good. Attack ads that could be mistaken for Harperite ads is not good.

The momentum is shifting to Trudeau and Mulcair isn't giving soft supporters a good enough reason to stick with him.

Kevin Page called the Liberal budget realistic, the NDP budget thin and based on obsolete numbers. The NDP ad throwing liberal flyers in the air and calling them pie in the sky isn't terribly convincing. Not to mention if the Liberals can't afford their promises while saying they will run a deficit how in the world with the NDP keep their promises without one?

KarlL

alan smithee wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Yeah, just so totally mindless.  You would have thought that the NDP would have only attacked the Conservatives and just ignored the Liberals.

The NDP AND the Liberals need to back off and put their energy into shooting holes in the Conservative bubble.

There is nothing to gain from attacking each other. As a matter of fact,they have everything to lose with these stupid attack ads.

As a Liberal viewing this from outside, the NDP has little choice but to go after Trudeau.  

There were three reasons why Tom Mulcair was ever in the game at all:

1. Strong performance in the House of Commons re Duffy et al. roughly concurrent with some Trudeau gaffes.

2. Relentless CON advertising contra-Trudeau of the "just not ready" kind.  Until that, Mulcair was not even close, support-wise.

3. Rachel Notley's win showing anything is conceivable for the NDP.

But most of all, the CONS' anti-Trudeau advertising, which has laid out a map for the NDP on how low his numbers can be driven with an effective negative message.

Also, and let's not kid ourselves, ego will be a factor.  If you are McGrath, Lavigne or even Mulcair himself, true success is a win, but relative success and living to fight another day is confirming second place.  Third is abject failure and a poltical obituary the day after.  

 

 

Pondering

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Harper has been in third place more than once. Keeping him there is the NDP's best bet on living either at 24 Sussex or Stornoway.

It's hard to disagree with that.  But my point was that winning over those diehard Con supporters isn't as easy as singing them a lovely Socialism song.

They probably can't be won over, but their numbers have shrunk enough to drop them into 3rd place. That is achieved when the heat is kept on them. When the NDP switch their focus to the Liberals they help themselves but they also help Harper.

The NDP has been trying to squeeze the Liberals out of the centre, destroy the party so the NDP becomes the alternative to Harper.

All the NDP succeeds in doing is splitting the centre-left vote letting Harper slip up the middle. This has happened so much that the ABC crowd will swing one way or another on the 19th. The NDP thought they could make it them.

In my opinion the better strategy would have been to take Harper's conservatives out. They are a shell, a mirage. The PCs are gone. The reformers reign supreme and the social conservatives are bewildered. Social conservatives can be won over by following the lead of the Pope turning away from the condemnation of individual sin to target the sin of environmental degradation and poverty.

The Conservatives disintegrated for a reason. They don't form a natural group so they will disintegrate again as soon as they don't have the iron hand of Harper holding them together. There are lots of cracks. They just need a little push.

Then the NDP replaces the Conservatives as the defacto alternative.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
They probably can't be won over, but their numbers have shrunk enough to drop them into 3rd place.

Quote:
All the NDP succeeds in doing is splitting the centre-left vote letting Harper slip up the middle.

If Harper is, in fact, in third place (and I hope he is) then how, mathematically, will this happen?  Wouldn't it only happen if Mulcair supporters or Trudeau supporters suddenly realize that they're actually Harper supporters?

Stockholm

The Liberals have been runniug attacks ads against the NDP the whole campaign and no one seemed to mind that - but the moment the NDP retaliates all the pearl clutching begins...yawn!

jjuares

Stockholm wrote:

The Liberals have been runniug attacks ads against the NDP the whole campaign and no one seemed to mind that - but the moment the NDP retaliates all the pearl clutching begins...yawn!


Exactly. The escalator ad mentions Harper and Mulcair.

mark_alfred

I have no problem with the ads.  They relate to an issue; they're not empty character assassination.  Do I want someone for prime minister who voted for Bill C-51 and then, when confronted by students, justified it by saying he only did it to avoid attacks from Harper since the election was close (otherwise it might be a different story)?  Nope.  Is it wrong for a competitor to point this out?  Some people did switch their votes, and some on the fence may too.  

Heck, the Liberals have been quite negative toward the NDP.  Trudeau himself during the debates brought up Mulcair debating bulk water exports in the distant past, which isn't relevant to anything, but obviously the Libs feel this attack can shake some votes loose.  And in television ads Trudeau himself accuses the NDP of wanting to make cuts (an unfounded accusation).  Neither the NDP nor Cons go as far as to have the leader directly do the attacking in ads.  Only the Libs go this far. 

I'm not sure why people feel the NDP should just stand there and take punches in the face without a response.  And they're not empty character smears like Con ads are -- they relate to an issue.

When you're sliding in the polls, go negative.  Dix stayed positive and went down in flames.

Pondering

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
They probably can't be won over, but their numbers have shrunk enough to drop them into 3rd place.

Quote:
All the NDP succeeds in doing is splitting the centre-left vote letting Harper slip up the middle.

If Harper is, in fact, in third place (and I hope he is) then how, mathematically, will this happen?  Wouldn't it only happen if Mulcair supporters or Trudeau supporters suddenly realize that they're actually Harper supporters?

He isn't now but he has been several times. Scan the list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_el...

 

Pondering

mark_alfred wrote:

I have no problem with the ads.  They relate to an issue; they're not empty character assassination.  Do I want someone for prime minister who voted for Bill C-51 and then, when confronted by students, justified it by saying he only did it to avoid attacks from Harper since the election was close (otherwise it might be a different story)?  Nope.  Is it wrong for a competitor to point this out?  Some people did switch their votes, and some on the fence may too.  

Heck, the Liberals have been quite negative toward the NDP.  Trudeau himself during the debates brought up Mulcair debating bulk water exports in the distant past, which isn't relevant to anything, but obviously the Libs feel this attack can shake some votes loose.  And in television ads Trudeau himself accuses the NDP of wanting to make cuts (an unfounded accusation).  Neither the NDP nor Cons go as far as to have the leader directly do the attacking in ads.  Only the Libs go this far. 

I'm not sure why people feel the NDP should just stand there and take punches in the face without a response.  And they're not empty character smears like Con ads are -- they relate to an issue.

When you're sliding in the polls, go negative.  Dix stayed positive and went down in flames.

Depends on the goal. Is it to strengthen the party's position long term or just win this one election and govern from the centre with a toe on the left?

jjuares

mark_alfred wrote:

I have no problem with the ads.  They relate to an issue; they're not empty character assassination.  Do I want someone for prime minister who voted for Bill C-51 and then, when confronted by students, justified it by saying he only did it to avoid attacks from Harper since the election was close (otherwise it might be a different story)?  Nope.  Is it wrong for a competitor to point this out?  Some people did switch their votes, and some on the fence may too.  

Heck, the Liberals have been quite negative toward the NDP.  Trudeau himself during the debates brought up Mulcair debating bulk water exports in the distant past, which isn't relevant to anything, but obviously the Libs feel this attack can shake some votes loose.  And in television ads Trudeau himself accuses the NDP of wanting to make cuts (an unfounded accusation).  Neither the NDP nor Cons go as far as to have the leader directly do the attacking in ads.  Only the Libs go this far. 

I'm not sure why people feel the NDP should just stand there and take punches in the face without a response.  And they're not empty character smears like Con ads are -- they relate to an issue.

When you're sliding in the polls, go negative.  Dix stayed positive and went down in flames.


The escalator ad was an attack ad partially on the NDP. During one debate Trudeau stated the governance issue on the Clarity Attack. Hell, the Liberals have risen through the polls through attacks.

Aristotleded24

mark_alfred wrote:
When you're sliding in the polls, go negative.  Dix stayed positive and went down in flames.

This contention about "no attack ads" is bunk. Sure people say they don't like attack ads. They also tell their bosses that they are sick on Fridays and Mondays. Take from that what you will.

takeitslowly

Justin going up the escalator is lying everyday  that Mulcair is promising more cuts.

terrytowel

takeitslowly wrote:

terrytowel, girl please.  i still remember how you yelled at every thread back a few months ago how the liberals is over. I am really tired of your drama queen antics. No one really ever thought you would vote for the NDP. You are all over the damn map just like Justin. You are such a prime madonna, girlfriend.

The entire opening thread has been cut, pasted and credited to the Globe and Mail. How is that DRAMA? It is not even my text.

Rev Pesky

mark_alfred wrote:
...Trudeau himself during the debates brought up Mulcair debating bulk water exports in the distant past, which isn't relevant to anything...

Any position a politician has taken, distant past or no, is relevant. It's absolutely relevant. And I'm not sure what you mean by distant past...what ten years ago? Fifteen years ago? That's hardly distant past.

mark_alfred wrote:
...And in television ads Trudeau himself accuses the NDP of wanting to make cuts (an unfounded accusation).

In fact Andrew Thompson did say that cuts would have to be made to achieve the balanced budgets that Mulcair promised. And even if he hadn't, the promise was for balanced budgets. If revenues failed to materialize as desired, cuts would have to be made. Now, it's certainly possible to make cuts, the question is where, but that wasn't part of the NDP promise.

mark_alfred wrote:
...Dix stayed positive and went down in flames.

This must be the most widespread misunderstanding of what happened in the BC election. Yes, the NDP said they were going to stay positive, but from the  beginning of the campaign they harped and harped on how bad the (BC) Liberals were, and spent almost no time providing a positive look at their own platform. The NDP did not stay positive, they started negative, and continued that way until voting day.

But the real problem wasn't the advertising, negative or not, the real problem was that Dix had a record of falsifying a government document while he was a government functionary. He re-dated a document so as to protect Glen Clark who was premier at the time. That put him in the position of not being able to go after the Liberals for any of their rank corruption because they could just drag this episode out. Believe me, there were plenty of New Democrats who despised Dix for that failure of judgement.

Then Dix changed his mind mid-campaign about the Kinder Morgan pipeline and that was that. Meanwhile the Liberals sold a wonderful picture of the bright future of LNG, and how we'd all be enjoying the free money. 'Course it was all bull, but the NDP, for all their negativity didn't bother to point out how empty the LNG promise was. Oh well, next time, I guess.

Viridian Viridian's picture

Rev Pesky wrote:
In fact Andrew Thompson did say that cuts would have to be made to achieve the balanced budgets that Mulcair promised. And even if he hadn't, the promise was for balanced budgets. If revenues failed to materialize as desired, cuts would have to be made. Now, it's certainly possible to make cuts, the question is where, but that wasn't part of the NDP promise.

Hedging I don't blame you. Our flip flopping ray of sunshine Trudeau has repeatedly stated the NDP are bringing austerity. 

Some people here seem to think the negative ad campaign is somehow beneath Canadians. The Liberals negative campaign has disproven that theory, as have the Conservatives repeated successes using blatant misinformation. 

takeitslowly

Liberal budget plan includes a 6.2 billion cuts in spending

mark_alfred

Rev Pesky wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:
...And in television ads Trudeau himself accuses the NDP of wanting to make cuts (an unfounded accusation).

In fact Andrew Thompson did say that cuts would have to be made to achieve the balanced budgets that Mulcair promised. And even if he hadn't, the promise was for balanced budgets. If revenues failed to materialize as desired, cuts would have to be made. Now, it's certainly possible to make cuts, the question is where, but that wasn't part of the NDP promise.

Oh come on.  The Liberals also said they're cutting things.  Income splitting for instance, as the NDP shall be cutting too.  Also, in 2019, the Liberals plan for balanced budgets, so "if revenues failed to materialize as desired, cuts would have to be made."  McCallum the Knife said "nothing is off the table" when it came to their plans to cut.  Trudeau should have included himself in his attack.

Anyway, arguing the merits of an attack is irrelevant.  The fact is, as acknowledged by yourself, that the Liberals have attacked the NDP in this television ad.  The NDP so far have not done the same.  They've focused on the Conservatives.  The fact that they're now starting to respond in kind to the Liberals really shouldn't be a shock, should it?

JKR

Stockholm wrote:

The Liberals have been runniug attacks ads against the NDP the whole campaign and no one seemed to mind that - but the moment the NDP retaliates all the pearl clutching begins...yawn!

I think the Liberals are doing well in this election because so far they have done a better job than the NDP in telling ABC voters what they want to hear. I think if the NDP wants to win it has to start appealing to ABC voters better than the Liberals. They simply have to have a stronger message for ABC voters than the Liberals have. I think that at this point in the election this would require the NDP to come out and say that they will undo all the damage the Conservatives have done during the last 9 years, all the damage that the ABC crowd wants to see rectified. At this point that probably requires that the NDP say at once that they will repeal Bill C-51, that they will protect civil liberties, that they will create more jobs with living wages, that they will pressure the provinces and give incentives to the provinces to increase the minimum wage to $15, that they will establish a national childcare program, that they will establish a national pharmacare program, that they will build more affordable housing, that they will re-establish the long term census, that they will pull us out of Iraq and Syria, that they will raise corporate taxes, that they will put more money into healthcare, that they will get rid of tax loopholes that benefit the very richest Canadians, that they will protect the environment, that they will give humanitarian aid to desperate refugees, etc.... I think if the NDP can start conveying that message effectively to ABC voters they will do well.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Good analysis.

JKR

Ken Burch wrote:

Good analysis.

I think what sometimes hurts the NDP's ability to come up with a good campaign plan is that they have a hard time accepting that many of their supporters and potential supporters are primarily ABC voters who often also like the Liberals, Greens, and BQ, especially when they believe that these other parties are well positioned to oust the Conservatives. In this election, instead of getting fully behind ABC voters who are extremely motivated after 9 years of Harper, the party seemed to try to also get support from current Conservative supporters. This approach doesn't seem to have worked because the Conservative base is not budging away from Harper and trying to appeal to Conservatives has turned off ABC voters. By supporting deficits, the Liberals strategically sided with the ABC voter and by supporting surpluses the NDP weakened their link with the ABC voter. I think this was not a good recipe for success for the NDP. As they say in the U.S., "you gotta dance with the one that brung ya."

KarlL

The NDP will be going negative on Trudeau in English Canada for the balance of the campaign and will need to introduce some different negative ads into the mix in Quebec, given some slippage to the Cons and Bloc.  

Absent some huge gaffe by Trudeau, there's little to no chance of the NDP finishing first in seats now (and a less than even-odds chance of the Liberals doing so).  The target has shifted and the best plausible electoral outcome for the NDP is to leapfrog the Liberals for second place and then play for minority government in the wake of defeat of the Conservatives following the SFT.

I don't like it, obviously, but it is inevitable.

I only hope that the NDP does not forget to keep the pressure on the CONs in Quebec, BC and Saskatchewan because it will be a whole lot less palatable if the Cons take enough of those seats to win a majority.

Jacob Two-Two

This is a huge overreaction to a few bad polls.

mark_alfred

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
This is a huge overreaction to a few bad polls.

By whom?  People here, or the NDP war room?

mark_alfred

JKR wrote:
Stockholm wrote:

The Liberals have been runniug attacks ads against the NDP the whole campaign and no one seemed to mind that - but the moment the NDP retaliates all the pearl clutching begins...yawn!

I think the Liberals are doing well in this election because so far they have done a better job than the NDP in telling ABC voters what they want to hear. I think if the NDP wants to win it has to start appealing to ABC voters better than the Liberals. They simply have to have a stronger message for ABC voters than the Liberals have. I think that at this point in the election this would require the NDP to come out and say that they will undo all the damage the Conservatives have done during the last 9 years, all the damage that the ABC crowd wants to see rectified. At this point that probably requires that the NDP say at once that they will repeal Bill C-51, that they will protect civil liberties, that they will create more jobs with living wages, that they will pressure the provinces and give incentives to the provinces to increase the minimum wage to $15, that they will establish a national childcare program, that they will establish a national pharmacare program, that they will build more affordable housing, that they will re-establish the long term census, that they will pull us out of Iraq and Syria, that they will raise corporate taxes, that they will put more money into healthcare, that they will get rid of tax loopholes that benefit the very richest Canadians, that they will protect the environment, that they will give humanitarian aid to desperate refugees, etc.... I think if the NDP can start conveying that message effectively to ABC voters they will do well.

We live in a sound bite culture.  So I don't think it's possible to convey all that without a pile of money.  The NDP have had news releases, townhalls, events, and will be releasing their platform.  Their programs were targeted by Libs and Cons as being wildly over budget (Libs said $24 billion whereas Cons said $8 billion).  They NDP responded quickly by releasing their fiscal plan.  I'm not sure what else they can do.

Regarding soundbites: 

Liberals:  "Tom Mulcair will be giving cheques to millionaires.  I will tax the rich, and give more to the middle class.  That's real change."  Repeated a gazillion times.  So, hey, he's gonna give me more money.  Also, "And Tom Mulcair promises more cuts," repeated over and over. 

The Cons:  "The NDP can't manage money," repeated over and over. 

The NDP's catchlines:  "Ready for change," & "Stephen Harper, it's time to let him go."  I can't recall any attacking catchline targeting Trudeau, though.

Jacob Two-Two

By KarlL and others who want to characterize the election as "over" in defiance of all common sense. A few weeks ago the Liberals were third in the polls and it was "over" for them, until it was the Conservatives, and then the NDP. The parties are functionally tied. One thing happens and one takes the lead, another thing happens and another takes the lead. These aren't trends, they're just tides. If there's going to be any real movement it will probably not happen until the very end.

terrytowel

JKR wrote:

At this point that probably requires that the NDP say at once that they will repeal Bill C-51, that they will protect civil liberties

They need to drop their rhetoric on C-51. They spent all their political capital on that issue. It is not a ballot issue and neither will it move votes. The economy & jobs are the number 1 issue, and the more they let the Liberals frame the narrative on job, the more the NDP will fall in the polls. They need to drop all talk on C-51 and start talking about the economy.

Jacob Two-Two

Yeah like anyone should take your advice. We know where your bread is buttered terrytowel. The NDP went up in the polls when C-51 became an issue. They sank again when people stopped talking about it. This is definitely a good issue for the NDP if they can keep people focused on it but that may not be easy to do. The NDP don't have the resources to lead the election narrative like that.

Unionist

terrytowel wrote:

They need to drop all talk on C-51 and start talking about the economy.

No worries. [url=http://www.ndp.ca/plan]Tom's plan[/url] doesn't even mention C-51, or anything else about civil liberties. On the economic front, it talks about cutting small business tax, but doesn't mention corporate tax rates at all. Nor the $15 minimum wage.

I think we're on the right track.

 

mark_alfred

terrytowel wrote:

JKR wrote:

At this point that probably requires that the NDP say at once that they will repeal Bill C-51, that they will protect civil liberties

They need to drop their rhetoric on C-51. They spent all their political capital on that issue. It is not a ballot issue and neither will it move votes. The economy & jobs are the number 1 issue, and the more they let the Liberals frame the narrative on job, the more the NDP will fall in the polls. They need to drop all talk on C-51 and start talking about the economy.

I dunno.  They've talked a lot about being sound fiscal managers to stave off criticism here.  I think remaining on the defensive is an error.  Their standing up for people's rights is a strength.  The other parties' cowardess on this is a weakness of those parties.  Seems a good idea to shift the focus of the fight to your strengths.  I believe you're wrong that people don't care about their rights.  People want honest leaders who broker policy in the best interests of the citizens, rather than gutless worms who just look at polls and make policy up on the fly.  Trudeau's actions on Bill C-51 suggests the latter rather than the former.  This reflects on how policy will be approached as whole too, rather than simply on Bill C-51.

KarlL

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
By KarlL and others who want to characterize the election as "over" in defiance of all common sense. A few weeks ago the Liberals were third in the polls and it was "over" for them, until it was the Conservatives, and then the NDP. The parties are functionally tied. One thing happens and one takes the lead, another thing happens and another takes the lead. These aren't trends, they're just tides. If there's going to be any real movement it will probably not happen until the very end.

 

I am not saying, or at least I shouldn't be saying that the election is "over".  There are a lot of dynamics to be played out yet and I would certainly concede the possibility that the NDP may come second ahead of the Liberals, whether in popular support or seat count.  I think first place is now a stretch and probably beyond the NDP's own control (i.e., it would need a big screw-up by one of the other two parties and even then one that did not also play into the hands of the other).

What I meant to say is that shooting for first when one is 6-points back of both other parties and the trend is in the wrong direction will take one kind of advertising campaign and going for second will take another.  An anti-Trudeau campaign could help the NDP leapfrog the Liberals but will also drive seats into the Conservative column as they and the Liberals have more head-to-head fights that are currently on the bubble.

To WIN, the NDP needs to recover lost ground in Quebec, Saskatchewan and BC outside Vancouver, in neither of which are the Liberals the primary obstacle. In most of these places, knocking the Liberal vote down by a third is not going to deliver the riding to the NDP, you'd need to actually take on the Conservatives (and in Quebec the Bloc as well).   To PLACE, the NDP needs to defeat Liberals in the cities as well as more limited recovery in QC, SK and BC.  

As a Liberal, i would obviously like you to go for the win, because that will mean taking on the CONs as well but I don't think that that is where the NDP campaign is heading.

Sean in Ottawa

I have no problem with attack ads right now -- but these are not good ads in my opinion and I don't think they will work at all.

KarlL

dp

Brachina

Stockholm wrote:

The Liberals have been runniug attacks ads against the NDP the whole campaign and no one seemed to mind that - but the moment the NDP retaliates all the pearl clutching begins...yawn!

 Actually the attack ads against the NDP began before the election in Quebec, Trudeau has dipped his hand into the muck often enough.

 So I support this, but its not enough by itself, there needs to be something bold policy wise to go with it, something to excite people, not just fear Trudeau. People already respect Tom more, its not enough, because the policies offered by the NDP haven't excited the electorate.

Sean in Ottawa

These ads have only served to prepare me for a massive defeat.

They are the wrong style of ad and on the wrong topics.

This is not an effective response to the Liberal ads: The Liberal ads were on policy-- taxes -- criticising NDP policy. The NDP response is -- 1) an unhelpful attack on Trudeau personally 2) the raising of C-51 (if that's all you got now Trudeau will destroy the NDP) and 3) an auto sector ad focusing on what some unknown Liberal said not about policy or what Trudeau said.

Garbage. An embarassment to every party worker in the country.

You needed a strong ad buy not the musing of fake voters on what many people will think is petty (the speaking fees and what some unamed "advisor" says). Without naming the person the ad comes across as sleaze. Amateur.

The NDP could have had an ad saying why you cannot trust the Liberals (thier past history broken promises) -- an ad contrasting what the NDP would do with the vagueness of the Liberals. An ad on the the record of Trudeau voting for Harper's policies.

The NDP is going down and somebody in communications over there should be unemployed. This is downright pathetic.

Step 1 ) make a good platform

Step 2) sell it

Step 3) compare others with your platform

Go big or go home -- don't waste time with small petty shit. The NDP communications clearly are not getting out and talking to real voters.

Not one of these ads focuses on anything anyone will vote on.

The start of the auto sector ad almost suggested they might go there but then you realize it is a quote from some unnamed advisor-- what an effing dud. Fire the creator of that ad now.

Bring in someone who believes in the platform and is willing to sell it. Go after the Liberals but do it on platform issues that people are talking about and voting on.

Maybe the NDP will crater down to 20% and we can look forward to the next generation and hope they do better.

The current NDP leadership squandered the best chance to win ever. They blew the legacy of Layton with a campaign of fear and pettiness -- the opposite of what got them to opposition.

A case study in stupidity.

Let's not reward this absolute crap by defending it. That won't help the party at all.

 

 

JKR

terrytowel wrote:

JKR wrote:

At this point that probably requires that the NDP say at once that they will repeal Bill C-51, that they will protect civil liberties

They need to drop their rhetoric on C-51. They spent all their political capital on that issue. It is not a ballot issue and neither will it move votes. The economy & jobs are the number 1 issue, and the more they let the Liberals frame the narrative on job, the more the NDP will fall in the polls. They need to drop all talk on C-51 and start talking about the economy.

Now that the NDP has promised that they support surplus budgets it is difficult to add a big economic stimulus package to the platform to match the Liberals "going into deficit to improve the economy" gambit which is all smoke and mirrors but still very effective. From what I have heard this election from people who might vote NDP, their primary issue and concern is simply "getting rid of Harper." For likely NDP voters that concern seems to override other concerns including the economy and jobs. Bill C-51 allowed the NDP to portray itself as the "anti-Harper party." During the campaign so far the NDP seems to have lost that title.

mark_alfred

JKR wrote:
From what I have heard this election from people who might vote NDP, their primary issue and concern is simply "getting rid of Harper." For likely NDP voters that concern seems to override other concerns including the economy and jobs. Bill C-51 allowed the NDP to portray itself as the "anti-Harper party." During the campaign so far the NDP seems to have lost that title.

Maybe TPP, bring the troops home, increase corporate taxes, universal child care spaces, national cap and trade, proportional representation, sign the Arms Trade Treaty (Cons are opposed, NDP in favour, what's the Lib's position?) could bring back the mantle of "anti-Harper party".  There's lots of stuff of the NDP that signal opposition to Harper.

The other reality is people both want change and competence.  Mulcair can represent both.  Two times during the Munk debate where the audience laughed was when Harper said he's very close to Obama (laughter) and when Mulcair pointed out that if Trudeau is too frightened to take a stance on C-51 due to Harper, how do people feel he'll do with Putin (laughter).  There's lots of opportunities to exploit the public's feelings that Harper doesn't get along with people (IE Obama) and Trudeau is not likely a reliable negotiator.

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