Olivia Chow now running federally

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Rokossovsky

Brachina wrote:

 Olivia Chow doesn't have French skills or even the English skills to be a successor to Tom Mulcair, plus some people resent her refusal to endorse Joe Cressily during the race vs. Adam Vaughan. Pragmatics mean setting that aside to unseat Adam, but Successor, no, Cabinate Post yes. 

 For successor I think Megan Leslie, Nathan Cullen, Niki Ashton, Peter Julian, or perhaps a surprise choice from Quebec.

I was going to trash Chow for her oportunistic poll chasing, but before that can we please put this to bed. Olivia Chow's English is entirely fluent, and generally gramatically superior to most Canadian speakers of the language including most politicians. She does not have a standard Canadian English accent, is all.

Accent and fluency are two different things. Sample here.

I really don't have confidence in Chow since she ditched the NDP when it was polling low, ran for mayor on the promise of positive polling, and by the weight of her popularity squandered a good part of the energies of the NDP downtown political machine on a failed mayoralty race that unhappily coincided with a provincial election.

Likewise, it was clear to me, and I am sure it was clear to her that Adam would run for her seat once his path to the mayors chair was blocked by her decision to run for the job. Joe was an unlikely winner against the force of the popular Liberal candidate, and the loss of Trinity Spadina was entirely predictable. In my view she clearly set her own ambition beyond the party, and the consequences for the NDP prestige, locally, provincially and federally were serious.

Very likely had the forces not been disposed as they are, and NDP energies dispersed so, Michael Prue would still be an MPP.

While she was pursuing her career opportunity at City Hall, running a campaign that was every bit as "centerist" as that of the Andrea Horwath, she neither defended the ONDP, and the constant attacks in the MSN, nor did she even endorse Joe Cressy over vaughan.

These losses have been a serious blow to the NDP stock in Toronto. She also deprived the NDP of a local popular "captain" to lead the NDP in Toronto into the next federal election -- herself. Fortunately, it seems Thomas Mulcair has been able to forge forward and put the NDP back on track, along with the outstanding performance of the Rachel Notely and the Alberta NDP.

So, all in all, its hard for me to have faith either in her political accumen, or loyalty to the party. Opportunism wills as opportunism wants.

That said, I am sure she can kick Adam Vaughan's ass, and she will bring added credibility to the campaigns of all Toronto core candidates so I am all for it, because I predict a sweep of all downtown core ridings. 

Rokossovsky

adma wrote:

Also, how much of the kind of "Chinese community" terrytowel speaks of *remains* in Trinity-Spadina/Spadina-Fort York?  You might as well still be speaking of the Polish community on Roncesvalles as a barrier to NDP (re-)electability in Parkdale-High Park.

Another way of putting it: if the ethnic and cultural demos of a generation or two still held, Doug Ford would've done much better in said ridings.

Clearly, a substantial part of Han Dong's successful run to unseat incumbent Rosario Marchese in the last provincial election had something to do with being able to galvanize a large section of the Chinese community in Trinity Spadina behind his campaign. And this will be even more important in the upcoming election, since Spadina-Fort-York loses much of the European community in the north end of Trinity-Spadina and hands it over to University-Rosedale.

Trudeau/Dong both heavily campaigned side by side for Adam in the byelections, in the Chinese community -- that may stick.

I don't know how much influence Chow's ethnicity will have on the campaign, given her leftist identification. But, her name recognition will work for her in condoland, and there are still substantial sections "lefty-liberal" types in west of bathurst up to Ossington.

terrytowel

Misfit wrote:
TT, I looked up iron rice bowl. The public civil servants they refer to are the ones with lifetime job security. Olivia Chow has faced a review of her job by the public every three to four years with elections where she could be easily voted out if she was viewed by the public of not doing her job properly. That is not job security, not even close. And, she is currently a professor at Ryerson University.

It is safe to say Chow is a very polarizing fugure in the Chinese community. It is a combo of some who are more conservative in their views as takeitslowly says. And some who view her with the iron rice bowl mentality, despite facing the electorate every four years.

In fact anyone who works for government, whether it is an elected official or a city worker is seen as having a iron rice bowl. It is more about anyone who works in government. You can try to explain that elected officals have no job security, but all they see is elected official = job security = living off the public dime.

It also doesn't help that most Chinese read the Toronto Sun, who have countless stories of government waste. Just feeds the distrust.

But one thing is not in dispute. In the Chinese community she is a polarizing figure for a variety of reasons. Not just one.

nicky

Rokossovsky has very clearly articulated some of my concerns about Olivia.

I think she may well be the strongest candidate we can field against Vaughan in an electoral sense but I would have hoped we could do better in terms of quality of candidate. I would be very keen about James Lockyer in preference to her.

I soured on Olivia when in an act of political idiocy she opposed the initial redistribution proposals a couple years back. It would have created three NDP seats in downtown Toronto. Rosedale would have been removed from Toronto Centre and grafted onto a new riding including the wealthiest sections of St Paul's and other areas to the north. It would of course be unwinnable for the NDP but it consolited the worst areas of both TC and St Paul's into one riding and in so doing gave us notional majorities in both St Pauls and TC.

But in doing so it would have attached much of the Annex into St Pauls. This would still have left Spadina safe for Olivia but she objected with the result that St Pauls is now safe for the Liberals and Rosdale is grafted n to the Annex making a very difficult new riding for the NDP in University-Rosedale. Futher consequent changes to TC now give the Liberals a small majority there.

So we went from 3 NDP seats to one thinks to Olivia's shortsightedness.

Then she committed an even worse blunder by engineering the nomination in the by-election for a candidate with no public profile and no reume of any significance. Having frozen ourt other possible canduidates she abandoned the NDP in the by-election by announcing she would remain neutral when it became apparent her chosen candidate would be trounced.

Then there was Helen Kennedy years ago but I will refrain from further comment on that fiasco.

The uninspiring mayoralty election further revealed her limts as a politican and squandered much political capital. She has shown horrible political judgement as well as a real lack of regard for the party that nutured her political carrer.

Nonetheless, should she be the candidate in S-FT I will back her as I backed her for mayor, out of a loyalty to the party, far greater than what she has shown, and with a real lack of enthusiam for her personally.

 

terrytowel

Nicky post explains why some have soured on Olivia. Which is what some of us long-time Trinity-Spadina residents have seen before she went federally.

Rokossovsky wrote:

I don't know how much influence Chow's ethnicity will have on the campaign, given her leftist identification. But, her name recognition will work for her in condoland, and there are still substantial sections "lefty-liberal" types in west of bathurst up to Ossington.

Rokossovsky you wrote last year

Quote:
No way she could take out Vaughan in Spadina-Fort York. Her base is in the North end of Trinity Spadina, not in condoland.

http://rabble.ca/comment/1466447#comment-1466447

Have you since changed your mind?

terrytowel

BTW here is an article where she said NO NO NO she was NOT going to run for Mayor

Asked directly if she wants to run for mayor, Chow gave a blunt “no.”

“Thank you for asking though,” she said. “I thought it was just summer idle discussion.”

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/08/22/olivia-chow-rules-out-running-again...

socialdemocrati...

Even in a riding that includes Chinatown, Chinese-Canadians made up only 16% of Trinity-Spadina in 2011. That proportion has only gone down. Now the riding is chopped in half at Dundas, which puts much of China-town in University-Rosedale. And the rapid densification of the riding has been more pronounced closer to the Lakeshore, which is disproportionately made up of voters under the age of 35, who are disproportionately voting NDP. 

Beyond that, not only is this idea of a Chinese hive-mind in dispute, it's very dubious and borderline offensive. I personally know several Chinese-Canadians who worked hard on Olivia Chow's mayoral campaign. 

Liberal strategists are making a huge mistake if they're pinning their hopes on a generalization about an entire ethnic group. 

When you see Liberals grasping at straws...

terrytowel wrote:

I know it is TOUGH but you have to face facts

IT'S OVER!

Why can't you accept it like everyone else here on this forum?

 

terrytowel

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

I know it is TOUGH but you have to face facts

IT'S OVER!

Why can't you accept it like everyone else here on this forum?

 socialdemocraticmiddle can you do me a favor and spread my "It's Over" quotes or more threads than just this one?

It seems too exclusive here, and needs to be spread over on multiple other threads.

Thanks sweetie. much appreciated.

Hugs & Kisses!

socialdemocrati...

I'm already doing you a favor, helping you with your faulty memory. You clearly needed the most help in this thread.

You're welcome. Love you, bro.

terrytowel

yes but it shouldn't be strictly on this thread, I need it spread over multiple thread.

Thanks.

socialdemocrati...

You're already doing a great job, Terry. This was the only thread where you hadn't beaten me to it.

Olivia and the NDP thank you for your support.

terrytowel

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

You're already doing a great job, Terry. This was the only thread where you hadn't beaten me to it.

Olivia and the NDP thank you for your support.

Why are you thanking Olivia she hasn't even replied to this thread?

socialdemocrati...

She's really grateful that you're so confident in the NDP. The whole Chinese community passed on the message at the last meeting. You weren't there?

terrytowel

Can you get with the program? I'm with the Scarborough Chinese community now. Not the Chinese community in Trinity-Spadina anymore.

I thought you realized that.

If you are paying attention to my "It's OVER!" narrative you should of realized that

socialdemocrati...

You're slipping Terry. First you show up to this thread without your famous "IT'S OVER" tagline. Now you're out of touch with the community in Trinity-Spadina.

terrytowel

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

You're slipping Terry. First you show up to this thread without your famous "IT'S OVER" tagline. Now you're out of touch with the community in Trinity-Spadina.

Like I said I can only speak of PAST expereince living in Trinity-Spadina for 20 years. Since I don't live there anymore, I don't what is going on in terms of community meetings with the Chinese community. I'm more in tune with the Chinese community in Scarborough.

So if there was a meeting of Chinese community in Trinity-Spadina I would be unaware of it,

socialdemocrati...

That's ok, Terry. I know that you're no longer in touch with downtown Toronto, and you forgot to say "IT'S OVER" for the Liberals in this thread. That's why I thought I'd quote some of your posts over the past few weeks. 

I want to dedicate this song to you and Olivia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyTpu6BmE88

terrytowel

socialdemocraticmiddle LOL you definately have a sense of humour.

socialdemocrati...

Thanks :D I'll be here if you need me. Hopefully you won't forget again.

adma

terrytowel wrote:
It also doesn't help that most Chinese read the Toronto Sun, who have countless stories of government waste. Just feeds the distrust.

Probably explains why you write in single-sentence paragraphs.

Like Joe Warmington.

Why do you write like that?

Oh, and you're proved my point: Chow-hating Chinese have voted with their feet.

So, if there's so few of them left, why do you still portray them as a threat?

Resentment?

The revenge of the squeezed-out?

Maybe you deserve Scarborough, and Scarborough deserves you.

So rather than harping on about Olivia, harp on about Rathika.

Sean in Ottawa

Terry Towel hated poor Olivia so much he left downtown. Now he is banished to outer Scarberia. Wink

 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Probably explains why you write in single-sentence paragraphs.

Like Joe Warmington.

+1

Not for the dig at terrytowel, but for speaking truth about Joe Warmington.

Remember back about 6 or 7 years ago when his little picture/icon was of him in a fedora, like he was some old timey "newsman" from the 40's?

Rokossovsky

terrytowel wrote:

Nicky post explains why some have soured on Olivia. Which is what some of us long-time Trinity-Spadina residents have seen before she went federally.

Rokossovsky wrote:

I don't know how much influence Chow's ethnicity will have on the campaign, given her leftist identification. But, her name recognition will work for her in condoland, and there are still substantial sections "lefty-liberal" types in west of bathurst up to Ossington.

Rokossovsky you wrote last year

Quote:
No way she could take out Vaughan in Spadina-Fort York. Her base is in the North end of Trinity Spadina, not in condoland.

http://rabble.ca/comment/1466447#comment-1466447

Have you since changed your mind?

Yes! Liberals have badly fumbled the ball on decisive issues that left-of-center people in Toronto simply can not abide. The effect of the vote for C51 may not impact Liberal vote share in many places in Canada, but in the downtown core Toronto sorely bruised by G20 mayhem, support for the bill has not impressed core Vaughan supporters.

He may survive, but his chances have been reduced, as the poll in this thread suggests.

Who could have predicted the asinine Liberal position on C-51? Moreover, true to form, Adam believes he can actually bafflegab his way through it and defend it as he recently did on CFRB 1010 to Desmond Cole.

His arrogance knows no bounds and he really believes that "progressive-center-lefties" are so stupid as to swallow this shit.

terrytowel

adma wrote:

terrytowel wrote:
It also doesn't help that most Chinese read the Toronto Sun, who have countless stories of government waste. Just feeds the distrust.

Probably explains why you write in single-sentence paragraphs.

I've noticed that too. Not sure why I write in single-sentence paragraphs here at babble. I sure don't do that on other boards I visit. I think it might be the width/length of this comment box. It bigger than your average comment box. So big I think I subconscienly feel I'm going to run out of room. I know it should be the reverse.

ctrl190

What would be the possiblity of Linda McQuaig or Jennifer Hollett bowing out - or perhaps a Toronto NDP incumbent in a much safer seat than SFY - stepping down and letting Olivia run?

Stockholm

ctrl190 wrote:

What would be the possiblity of Linda McQuaig or Jennifer Hollett bowing out - or perhaps a Toronto NDP incumbent in a much safer seat than SFY - stepping down and letting Olivia run?

ZERO

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

ctrl190 wrote:

What would be the possiblity of Linda McQuaig or Jennifer Hollett bowing out - or perhaps a Toronto NDP incumbent in a much safer seat than SFY - stepping down and letting Olivia run?

ZERO

One thing Stockholm and I agree on. That would be a public relations nightmare for that to happen. I suspect they left Spadina-Fort York open in hopes Olivia might be persuaded to run again.

Gary Shaul Gary Shaul's picture

"I wouldn't underestimate the Fords. They have no shame as well as an abnormal sense of entitlement to be in top positions of power." (Misfit)

That is true. However, it doesn't take away from the reality that the left is not much different. 

"someone like her stepson Mike Layton to take down Tory and return the mayor's chair to the left" Robbie_Dee

The "left" held the Mayor's seat precisely because David Miller built a centre-left coalition. The "left" cannot win the Mayor's seat in the megacity - at least not anytime soon. Chow could not win the mayor's race running under the NDP banner. Sure, she could have likely beaten Ford in a two-way race. But who really expected that? Giambrone, Pantalone and Chow never stood a chance. The stakes were just too high for these backroom misadventures. 

I don't understand why Chow left federal poitics in the first place. The NDP was Official Opposition with their best shot ever at forming a government in 2015. She was doing a good job as an MP - often carrying the flag for issues that other MPs had reservations about - e.g. Afghanistan, US war resisters etc. Chow could have accomplished more as a federal minister than as Toronto mayor. I will still be be rooting for her although I don't share the same visceral reaction to Vaughan as many others here do. I would take Vaughan against a Harper Con in a heartbeat but that's not going to be a problem in this riding. 

Backroom politics and political dynastiies are alive and well at all levels of government and in all parties. 

Rokossovsky

ctrl190 wrote:

What would be the possiblity of Linda McQuaig or Jennifer Hollett bowing out - or perhaps a Toronto NDP incumbent in a much safer seat than SFY - stepping down and letting Olivia run?

What a strange question.

terrytowel

Gary Shaul wrote:

I don't understand why Chow left federal poitics in the first place. The NDP was Official Opposition with their best shot ever at forming a government in 2015. She was doing a good job as an MP - often carrying the flag for issues that other MPs had reservations about - e.g. Afghanistan, US war resisters etc. Chow could have accomplished more as a federal minister than as Toronto mayor.

At the time Trudeau was riding high in the polls and the NDP was stuck in third place. The narrative back then was the NDP had no shot of winning. Then comes poll after poll after poll that showed Chow beating both Ford and Tory without even breaking a sweat. In fact the hopes was that Ford and Tory would split the vote on the right, and allow her to come up the middle.

Only problem is that Tory ran as a Liberal, attracting votes from both the left and the right. Now that the NDP is surging, I guess Olivia wants back in the game.

Rokossovsky

Gary Shaul wrote:

"I wouldn't underestimate the Fords. They have no shame as well as an abnormal sense of entitlement to be in top positions of power." (Misfit)

That is true. However, it doesn't take away from the reality that the left is not much different. 

"someone like her stepson Mike Layton to take down Tory and return the mayor's chair to the left" Robbie_Dee

The "left" held the Mayor's seat precisely because David Miller built a centre-left coalition. The "left" cannot win the Mayor's seat in the megacity - at least not anytime soon. Chow could not win the mayor's race running under the NDP banner. Sure, she could have likely beaten Ford in a two-way race. But who really expected that? Giambrone, Pantalone and Chow never stood a chance. The stakes were just too high for these backroom misadventures. 

I don't understand why Chow left federal poitics in the first place. The NDP was Official Opposition with their best shot ever at forming a government in 2015. She was doing a good job as an MP - often carrying the flag for issues that other MPs had reservations about - e.g. Afghanistan, US war resisters etc. Chow could have accomplished more as a federal minister than as Toronto mayor. I will still be be rooting for her although I don't share the same visceral reaction to Vaughan as many others here do. I would take Vaughan against a Harper Con in a heartbeat but that's not going to be a problem in this riding. 

Backroom politics and political dynastiies are alive and well at all levels of government and in all parties. 

If Vaughan were running in a suburban riding he would show a completely different political face, and be much more "center-right" than he appears running in one of the most left-leaning ridings/wards in the country. Listen to his defense of C51 as an example. He assiduously cultivated a "progressive" image by attacking Ford, and promoting popular progressive causes, but you can see when the rubber hits the road, his solutions are entirely neo-Liberal, as recent statements about funding LPC infrastructure promises through privatized "pension plan" buyouts shows.

He smoothed the way for gifting of millions and millions of dollars worth of TCHC property under the rubric of housing revitalization at Alexandra Park, in a secret P3 deal, resulting in wholely owned public property being exchanged for 25 years leases for RGI housing, brokered through a confidentiality agreement that prohibits public scrutiny of the financial details.

Alexandra Park "Revitalization" Contract: Amendments 4,5 and 7 are missing;

The public simply have no idea what we are paying for what services, and what we are being "returned" if anything in this partnership.

In the 2014 federal budget debate he called for the Conservative government to give tax breaks to land developers, in order to encourage them to build affordable housing, rehashing the solution that Tony Clement proposed to solve the affordable housing gap during his tenure as Minister responsible for housing under Mike Harris.

Rokossovsky

Maybe. She hasn't said yes, yet. My sense is that their might be a fight about it.

socialdemocrati...

 

I don't get how people could think that University-Rosedale is the safe seat, and Spadina-Fort York is the swing seat. 

Spadina-Fort York now includes the south end of Trinity-Spadina and Toronto Center. It's SOLID ORANGE.

University Rosedale now oddly takes Kensington Market and snakes northeast AROUND Toronto Center to fucking Rosedale. It's actually one of the most offensive examples of gerrymandering. Deliberately watering down the downtown community and student community with the mansions of the superrich.

Rokossovsky

University-Rosedale has big CPC/LPC split. Will vote consolidate around one or the other? Hard to tell, but in byelection for Toronto Center, Tories stayed home.

socialdemocrati...

The way the ridings are set-up, Toronto Center should be more competitive for the NDP, and so should University-Rosedale. But it's made Spadina Fort-York just a bit more challenging. Basically, the NDP gives up one safe riding from 2011 in exchange for 3 tight races in 2015. The stakes are higher, but the rewards are bigger.

Rokossovsky

By the way, this formulation is a direct result of Chow's intervention in the process to add a downtown riding.

What it does, is make NDP chances greater in more ridings if NDP is doing well, while eliminating safe seats, if NDP is not doing well.

Rokossovsky

We agree.

Rokossovsky

With Vaughan, Spadina-Fort-York is the most challenging.

Stockholm

If Olivia Chow had not run for mayor at all and was running for re-election, its not clear to me whether she would opt for Spadina-Fort York or University-Rosedale...she actually lives about two blocks north of the border between the two ridings so she is technically liuving in University-Rosedale, but that's no big issue.

Stockholm

Keep in mind that in 2011 the NDP just had a name on the ballot in Toronto Centre and virtually no active campaign at all - and still got over 30% of the vote! Imagine if there had been a serious campaign then?

socialdemocrati...

I'm not sure I agree about the challenge. We're using the past to predict the future, which isn't always accurate. But it's the best way we have.

We know from 2011 if the Federal NDP has a 10 point lead on the Liberals, and if Chow is in the riding, all parts of Trinity-Spadina go orange. It's a dominant win. Vaughn might make it a bit more competitive, and the Liberals are doing better than 2011, but I think that just makes it a narrower win.

The NDP's dominance in Trinity-Spadina holds for both halves. But the north chunk is paired up with Rosedale this year, which crushed the NDP in Toronto-Center. There is almost no NDP presence in Rosedale. So that takes it down from a dominant win to a toss-up, IMO.

We also know from 2011 that if the Federal NDP has a 10 point lead on the Liberals, they still can't win Toronto Center in its old configuration. But in 2015, when you subtract Rosedale, and you subtract Bob Rae, it takes it from an uphill battle to a toss-up.

That's what the 2011 numbers indicate, anyway.

socialdemocrati...

I'm right on the border myself. When I finally put in some volunteer hours, I'm honestly not sure which riding will need my help.

Rokossovsky

To win, you have to look at political contingencies and trends, not polling results.

Rokossovsky

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

I'm not sure I agree about the challenge. We're using the past to predict the future, which isn't always accurate. But it's the best way we have.

No it isn't. The best way is to understand is by understanding voter dynamics and interests in the riding.

We need to look at the riding, its politics and the camps involved, Liberal, NDP and Conservative. Adam Vaughan is a challenge because he is still a popular candidate elevated to local start status, partly with the complicty of the NDP, in that they refused to challenge his "progressive" credentials, or even run a candidate against him when he was Councillor.

I am not talking about statistical analysis of past polling results. If they were that valuable, Rosario Marchese, and incumbent should have held his seat in the last provincial election, according to the metric you are using. Instead, Han Dong, a new comer completely trounced the NDP.

NDPrs have been falling over backward not to challenge Vaughan for years due to local political considerations on City Council, and so he has solidified a strong orangizational relationship to the NDP base. Indeed, Vaughan and the NDP politicos in the riding continue to have a political "friendship" even today.

Unlike Freeland or Morneau, whose relationship to the ridings in question is tenuous at best, Vaughan has strong political connections that cross party lines and embed him in the NDP core voter base. He has far more personal profile in Toronto, in comparison to the other, much weaker candidates. He is the Liberal champion of its "Cities" Agenda, proposing solutions to issues that are very attractive to progressive voters that are high on the agenda of Toronto voters trapped in miasma of catastrophic planning and funding failure in Toronto.

This has been substantively erroded by present LPC position on C51, but he still carries weight as a "progressive" voter choice attractive to swing voters, and even NDP core members.

He will be carrying the flag for the Liberals in the downtown core on these issues, from which the other candidates expect to get "urban agenda" credibilty to lift their boats.

socialdemocrati...

You're definitely right about what Vaughan brings to the table. I remember in the by-election, I had neighbors who were genuinely wondering "why did Vaughan go Liberal instead of NDP"? He has progressive support. Whether he deserves it or not is a completely different question.

That's why Olivia Chow is an important factor. Adam Vaughan beat Joe Cressy. But I don't think he could have beaten Olivia Chow. She's one of the most well known politicians outside of the party leaders. Her progressive bonafides are unquestionable. And her long stint in the NDP and proximity to Jack Layton certainly don't hurt either. In the mayor race, Olivia Chow beat or tied John Tory in most areas of the riding, which shows how loyal her base is, even in the face of a "more viable" alternative. Even if you don't think Chow trumps Vaughan, she at least cancels his advantage out.

Which means that the dynamics of the riding will largely follow the dynamics of the federal campaign. If the Liberals are the most viable alternative to Harper, you'll see Vaughan outperform even John Tory in that downtown core. But if the NDP looks to be on the verge of forming a government...

 

Rokossovsky

I have always thought a Vaughan/Chow race would be 50/50, but the Liberal brain trust is doing a good job at giving the NDP better odds.

Rokossovsky

Sadly he appeared at one of the larger C-51 demonstrations hoping to corral votes, and to make it look like he was onside a little, or at least doing what Liberals do best which is "listening" to people before they fuck them over.

socialdemocrati...

For the people who are highly in tune with politics, that's probably why Adam Vaughan can at least be competitive against Olivia Chow. They see him making those moves and treat him as a practical and progressive. So let's say, pessimistically, that the race is 50/50.

That means that the federal race will be the big tiebreaker. If the Liberals are ahead of the NDP, voters will probably pick the Liberals to stop the Conservatives. If the NDP is ahead of the Liberals, Chow will cement the win.

I think that's a pretty safe prediction.

Rokossovsky

More importantly, in fact, having a star candidate like Chow in the mix in the downtown core will likely increase chances for NDP in University-Rosedale and Toronto Center. That is a big plus.

I would prefer another quality candidate in SFY, but the strategic positives of a Chow candidacy are clear.

adma

And, because of the nature of the component old ridings and the parts thereof, you cannot judge "safety" simply through transposition.  That Spadina-Fort York "looks" so safe according to 2011 results is because it overwhelmingly consists of former Trinity-Spadina parts with only a smidgen of Toronto Centre--but that's more the wind-blown effect of Olivia's incumbency + catastrophic Liberal collapse skewing appearances upward.  Otherwise..would it even have gone NDP in 2006 or 2008; let along if you transposed the subsequent condo-boom conditions back to 2006 and 2008?  Oh, the notional NDP share would still have been *high*; but that's more because Trinity-Spadina had the Chow machine and Toronto Centre had no such thing...

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