Trudeau in trouble, trailing NPD in Papineau according to CROP, Quebec's gold pollster - Sep 17

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NorthReport
Trudeau in trouble, trailing NPD in Papineau according to CROP, Quebec's gold pollster - Sep 17

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NorthReport

Why would anyone want to vote for a party that can't even get its own leader elected, eh!

Liberal support is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Of course there is a huge Liberal media complex, Abacus Data, CBC, Toronto Star, Bruce Anderson, Huffington Post, 308, etc.  that pour out Liberal lies and nonsense 24/7, but if the truth be known Liberals could end up with less seats that their measly 34 seats in 2011.

Trudeau in trouble in Papineau riding: poll

A new poll indicates that Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau could be in danger of losing his seat in Parliament.

Trudeau has represented the Montreal, Que., riding of Papineau since 2008.

According to the CROP survey commissioned by the NDP and released on Thursday, 35 per cent of respondents said they intend to vote for the Liberal leader.

NDP candidate Anne Lagace Dowson is polling at 46 per cent.

Another 10 per cent of respondents said they plan to vote for Maxime Claveau of the Bloc Quebecois.

Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate, Yvon Vadnais, came in fourth at 5 per cent.


http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-r...

NorthReport

And now EKOS just released a poll tonite showing the NDP leading and the Liberals in third place.

NDP - 30%

Cons - 30%

Libs - 27%

 

josh

The poll was paid for by the NDP. The EKOS poll was out this afternoon and mentioned in the polling thread.

. We needed this thread because?

NorthReport

This is quite a newsworthy item but Liberals just hate the truth getting out eh josh! 

CROP are by far the most accurate pollster in Quebec

NorthReport

Some recent Liberal leaders

Justin Trudeau - born with silver spoon which is still in his mouth

Ignatieff - nuff said

Paul Martin - put his companies offshore to avoid Canadian Income Taxes, to avoid Canadian Labour Laws, and to avoid Canadian Environmental Laws

Jean Chretien - Sponsorship Scandal

 

 

NorthReport

NDP poll shows it's ahead of Trudeau in his home riding of Papineau

A new poll commissioned by the New Democratic Party suggests Justin Trudeau could be in trouble in his home riding of Papineau in the Oct. 19 election.

The CROP poll handed to the media Thursday shows NDP candidate Anne Lagacé Dowson leading Trudeau in voter intentions.

Support for Dowson was pegged at 46 per cent compared to 35 per cent for Trudeau, the Liberal Party leader. Running third is the Bloc Québécois candidate Maxime Claveau with 10 per cent support among poll respondents, while Conservative candidate Yvon Vadnais has five per cent.

The Green Party candidate, Danny Polifroni, is sitting at four per cent.

The poll was based on telephone calls to 375 voters in the riding from Sept. 11-14. It has a margin of error of five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Pollsters also asked voters who they think would be the best prime minister.

A total of 50 per cent picked NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair while 26 per cent said Trudeau. Twenty-four per cent had no answer or refused to answer.

Papineau has voted Bloc in the past. There is speculation given the collapse of the Bloc’s vote in this campaign that Trudeau could actually be in trouble because the vote will not split, allowing him to come up the middle.


http://montrealgazette.com/news/national/ndp-poll-shows-its-ahead-of-tru...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

And now EKOS just released a poll tonite showing the NDP leading and the Liberals in third place.

NDP - 30%

Cons - 30%

Libs - 27%

 

Uh...30% for the NDP and 30% for the Cons is not an NDP lead-it's a dead heat.  It's a sign that NDP support is holding up,  and a bit of bad news for the Libs,  but a tie is not a lead.

6079_Smith_W

I posted this in the Trudeau thread.

As I said there, I am less concerned about Trudeau's personal fortune, and tweaking other babblers' noses.

More important is who might gain control of the Liberal Party (and quite possibly the balance of power for the entire country in a minority situation) if he does lose?

Trudeau certainly isn't the most progressive politician, but neither is he the least progressive in the Liberal camp. Trudeau may have lots of style, and a legacy, and he certainly did help pull the Liberals' numbers out of the basement. But once the election is over, do they really need him?

 

NorthReport

Ken,

You need to read the fine print.

NDP at 29.9%, and the Cons at 30.6% is an NDP lead, any which way you wish to slice it.

Ken Burch wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

And now EKOS just released a poll tonite showing the NDP leading and the Liberals in third place.

NDP - 30%

Cons - 30%

Libs - 27%

 

Uh...30% for the NDP and 30% for the Cons is not an NDP lead-it's a dead heat.  It's a sign that NDP support is holding up,  and a bit of bad news for the Libs,  but a tie is not a lead.

NorthReport

Ken,

You need to read the fine print.

NDP at 29.9%, Cons at 29.6%, with Liberals languishing in last place with only 27.4%, while it may not be much, nevertheless it is an NDP lead, any which way you wish to slice it.

Ken Burch wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

And now EKOS just released a poll tonite showing the NDP leading and the Liberals in third place.

NDP - 30%

Cons - 30%

Libs - 27%

 

Uh...30% for the NDP and 30% for the Cons is not an NDP lead-it's a dead heat.  It's a sign that NDP support is holding up,  and a bit of bad news for the Libs,  but a tie is not a lead.

NorthReport
NorthReport

What does the NDP need to do now to move into majority territory

NDP at 34% support, now has a sizeable 5% lead over the Liberals, and a commanding 8% lead over the Cons. 

Cons - 26%

Libs - 29%

NDP out in front as Conservatives trail in third: Environics poll

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/09/17/ndp-out-in-front-as-conserva...

NorthReport

Too bad Canadians will never ever get the truth from Liberals!  Frown

No wonder Trudeau is afraid to provide details as the entire Liberal program is an uncosted sham!

Trudeau on defensive over economic plan heading into debate

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/09/17/trudeau-on-defensive-over-economic-plan-h...

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

What does the NDP need to do now to move into majority territory

NDP at 34% support, now has a sizeable 5% lead over the Liberals, and a commanding 8% lead over the Cons. 

Cons - 26%

Libs - 29%

NDP out in front as Conservatives trail in third: Environics poll

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/09/17/ndp-out-in-front-as-conserva...

According to this poll, to move into majority territory, the NDP needs to improve their numbers in Ontario.

bekayne

About that Papineau poll...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/3ldusy/controversy_arou...

Furthermore, the NDP has given to the media, which includes Le Devoir, an abridged version of the report that do not mention crucial data. A chart, which Le Devoir obtained from another source, shows that 14% of respondents have voted Liberal in Papineau, back in 2011. Yet, Justin Trudeau won with 38% of the votes. Likewise, 14% of the respondents said that they voted for the Bloc Québécois back in 2011. The Bloc had gotten 26% of the votes.

On the other hand, 32% if the survey respondents mentioned they voted NDP back in 2011, while the party received 28% of the votes.

Marc-André Viau, spokesperson for the NDP, indicated that the party is perfectly confident in the survey’s methodology. “Don’t forget that the riding’s borders have been changed since 2011, which has an impact on the answers”, he said.

He explained that the NDP gave the media an abridged version of the survey for the sake of simplicity.

 

KarlL

bekayne wrote:

About that Papineau poll...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/3ldusy/controversy_arou...

Furthermore, the NDP has given to the media, which includes Le Devoir, an abridged version of the report that do not mention crucial data. A chart, which Le Devoir obtained from another source, shows that 14% of respondents have voted Liberal in Papineau, back in 2011. Yet, Justin Trudeau won with 38% of the votes. Likewise, 14% of the respondents said that they voted for the Bloc Québécois back in 2011. The Bloc had gotten 26% of the votes.

On the other hand, 32% if the survey respondents mentioned they voted NDP back in 2011, while the party received 28% of the votes.

Marc-André Viau, spokesperson for the NDP, indicated that the party is perfectly confident in the survey’s methodology. “Don’t forget that the riding’s borders have been changed since 2011, which has an impact on the answers”, he said.

He explained that the NDP gave the media an abridged version of the survey for the sake of simplicity.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about anything that NR posts re polling.  NR's approach is to ignore any poll that doesn't support NR's primary obession and to call bias/incompetence on those who produce results that NR doesn't want to see. Over time, that has been pretty much every reputable pollster.

NR's own record of predicting the result is so spectacularly bad that NR was the only Babble poster during the 2014 Ontario election to get it more wrong than did Ipsos (and Ipsos predicted a Tim Hudak win).

If we simply accept NRs obession and discount NRs comments accordingly, we'll all be better off.

It is of course possible that NR may happen upon good data every once in a while, but like the boy who cried wolf....

josh

All very true.

nicky

I posted this under another topic:

It's a little simplistic to dismiss this as an "NDP poll." About three weeks ago I heard that internal NDP polling showed that Trudeau was in trouble in Papineau. The party did not release that poll because they knew it would be dismissed as partisan. Instead they commissioned CROP, a respected independent pollster, to take its own soundings. They had good reason to expect their own poll would be confirmed but the point is that they sought independent confirmation.

sherpa-finn

FWIW, I have never heard of a Cndn political party "doing" its own polling. When parties or media refer to 'internal polling' those are simply privately commissioned polls, undertaken by one of the private polling companies on behalf of the party, the questions for which the party can help set. And the results of which are private. 

josh

Any poll paid for by a party should be viewed with great skepticism.

Jacob Two-Two

Not if it's from a company with an excellent reputation. The notion that CROP would throw its credibility away to get a few bucks from the NDP is inane. You do realize that people will see the truth of this poll in a very short time frame, right? CROP doesn't want people saying, "those guys? The ones who thought Trudeau was gonna lose his seat? Look how that turned out. Who cares what they think?" A polling company's track record is vastly more important than who paid for their polls. CROP has an excellent record, as I'm sure you're aware. I also think you know that they aren't going to throw that record away to do a push-poll for the NDP, so I really don't understand why you keep hammering this point when it so clearly doesn't add up.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Just because the NDP paid for the poll doesn't mean it isn't valid. Every poll that is published is paid for by somebody. You do realize that right?

 

So now that the NDP is finally commissioning polls from major companies they don't matter?

 

Trudeau is in trouble. I said it weeks ago and everyone shouted me down. Once this news spreads that he won't even be sitting in the House the progressive vote will stampede to Mulcair. That is why the Libs don't want people to talk about Trudeau losing in Papineau.

terrytowel

knownothing wrote:

Trudeau is in trouble. I said it weeks ago and everyone shouted me down. Once this news spreads that he won't even be sitting in the House the progressive vote will stampede to Mulcair. That is why the Libs don't want people to talk about Trudeau losing in Papineau.

It didn't seem to hurt Christy Clark in BC. The news was rampant that she was going to lose her own seat, and that the NDP was going to win a majority. Clark did lose her seat, but the Liberals went on to win a majority government.

josh

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
Not if it's from a company with an excellent reputation. The notion that CROP would throw its credibility away to get a few bucks from the NDP is inane. You do realize that people will see the truth of this poll in a very short time frame, right? CROP doesn't want people saying, "those guys? The ones who thought Trudeau was gonna lose his seat? Look how that turned out. Who cares what they think?" A polling company's track record is vastly more important than who paid for their polls. CROP has an excellent record, as I'm sure you're aware. I also think you know that they aren't going to throw that record away to do a push-poll for the NDP, so I really don't understand why you keep hammering this point when it so clearly doesn't add up.

CROP can simply say that this was not one their independent polls, but was done on behest of a client, and thus any comparison is apples and oranges. 

Jacob Two-Two

No comparison. In BC, there were only two parties fighting for government, the BCNDP was a mess, and Christy was the incumbent. On the federal scene there's a three-way race, the Libs aren't even the Opposition, and they are fighting with the NDP to be the anti-Harper vote. If this becomes accepted as true, the Libs are toast.

terrytowel

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
No comparison. In BC, there were only two parties fighting for government, the BCNDP was a mess, and Christy was the incumbent. On the federal scene there's a three-way race, the Libs aren't even the Opposition, and they are fighting with the NDP to be the anti-Harper vote. If this becomes accepted as true, the Libs are toast.

Oh please the NDP was LEADING in all the polls, and Clark was danger of losing her seat. According to your logic it would make no sense for progressives to vote for a losing party. Instead Clark pulled off the impossible but still lost her seat. Plus the BC Liberals aren't even progressive to begin with! They are made up of Blue Liberals and Social Credit members.

Jacob Two-Two

josh wrote:

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
Not if it's from a company with an excellent reputation. The notion that CROP would throw its credibility away to get a few bucks from the NDP is inane. You do realize that people will see the truth of this poll in a very short time frame, right? CROP doesn't want people saying, "those guys? The ones who thought Trudeau was gonna lose his seat? Look how that turned out. Who cares what they think?" A polling company's track record is vastly more important than who paid for their polls. CROP has an excellent record, as I'm sure you're aware. I also think you know that they aren't going to throw that record away to do a push-poll for the NDP, so I really don't understand why you keep hammering this point when it so clearly doesn't add up.

CROP can simply say that this was not one their independent polls, but was done on behest of a client, and thus any comparison is apples and oranges. 

Have you ever heard any polling company say this? Because I haven't. And I think it would be stupid if they did. You're basically saying,"We fix polls for our clients". Even if it's true, nobody would ever admit it. Credibility is everything in the polling game. CROP isnt going to throw theirs away over something so small. Your premise just doesn't hold water, josh. Stop trying to bail the boat with it.

Brachina

 Its funny Josh and Pondering gripe about neoliberals and then cheerleader for the Liberals, how can anyone take them seriously.

josh

Public Policy Polling in the U.S. does this all the time.  They do public polls and private polls, paid by clients, which they often publish.  The private polls they publish have friendlier results for their clients than the public polls they do in the same race.

If the Liberals or the Conservatives paid a pollster to do a poll, and the results were positive to the party doing the paying, you'd be claiming that the poll was tainted.  And rightfully so.

terrytowel

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
Have you ever heard any polling company say this? Because I haven't. And I think it would be stupid if they did.

yeah but we talk about Forum all the time! Smile (that is a joke by the way)

terrytowel

josh wrote:

Right.  The only thing I'm cheering for is for getting rid of the Conservatives.

Josh don't you know? Liberals = Conseravtives. They are one in the same here on Rabble.

Northern-54

I have hired pollsters during campaigns.  Usually, it is to test "lines" or "messages" as to effectiveness in changing votes.  As such, there are questions that proceed the vote intention question.  This leads to different results than otherwise. 

On the other hand, many of the "private" polling does the same thing, asks questions prior to the vote intention question.  So, the poll that asked questions about Duffy prior to the vote intention question will have a reduced Conservative vote. 

I would not expect private and public polls to produce equivalent results unless I knew that there were no "Push" questions asked first in either of them.

josh

Brachina wrote:

 Its funny Josh and Pondering gripe about neoliberals and then cheerleader for the Liberals, how can anyone take them seriously.

Right.  The only thing I'm "cheering" for is for getting rid of the Conservatives.

sherpa-finn

Obviously some privately commissioned polls are done in a wholly manipulative manner to generate results with quotable statistics that can be made public: as in the "80% of all dentists recommend Crest toothpaste" variety.

But most "internal polling" commissioned by political parties is done to inform key campaign decisions re policy, communications and allocation of resources, etc.  Given that they are often very much more focused that the national polls (on a specific riding, issue or demographic) the results are often very insightful.

But these results are usually held tightly for obvious reasons, - and leaked only to media when there is a perceived strategic advantage. In this case, to presumably fluster the Trudeau campaign and compel him to spend a little more time back in Papineau. Or to start to get the public wondering about what a Liberal Party without Trudeau in the House might look like.   

terrytowel

The sample size was 315 people. Did they phone people at random or did they just focus exclusively on one polling area?

Ciabatta2

If legit, I don't know why the NDP would want this poll released.  Particularly so early in the campaign.  Wouldn't they want to keep it underwraps so that Trudeau doesn't know he is in danger of losing?  This galvanizes Liberals.

Let's get real though.  Even if he does lose (unlikely) someone will step aside for him in some riding in Mississauga or Ottawa or Peterborough.  Trudeau is not going anyway.

terrytowel

Ciabatta2 wrote:

If legit, I don't know why the NDP would want this poll released.  Particularly so early in the campaign.  Wouldn't they want to keep it underwraps so that Trudeau doesn't know he is in danger of losing?  This galvanizes Liberals.

Let's get real though.  Even if he does lose (unlikely) someone will step aside for him in some riding in Mississauga or Ottawa or Peterborough.  Trudeau is not going anyway.

Exactly wouldn't it be more shocking and better theatrics if he lost on election night? If true the NDP is giving the Liberals a leg up. If Trudeau can't campaign in Papineau he has extended family who can. Sophie, his brother and Margaret Trudeau. So why would the NDP want to do any favors for the Liberals?

Brachina

 The point is to make Trudeau look weak and demoralize his team.

terrytowel

Brachina wrote:

 The point is to make Trudeau look weak and demoralize his team.

It is only going to fire them up even more, and get more nasty. You don't think they have their own internal polling?

jjuares

sherpa-finn wrote:

Obviously some privately commissioned polls are done in a wholly manipulative manner to generate results with quotable statistics that can be made public: as in the "80% of all dentists recommend Crest toothpaste" variety.

But most "internal polling" commissioned by political parties is done to inform key campaign decisions re policy, communications and allocation of resources, etc.  Given that they are often very much more focused that the national polls (on a specific riding, issue or demographic) the results are often very insightful.

But these results are usually held tightly for obvious reasons, - and leaked only to media when there is a perceived strategic advantage. In this case, to presumably fluster the Trudeau campaign and compel him to spend a little more time back in Papineau. Or to start to get the public wondering about what a Liberal Party without Trudeau in the House might look like.   


Absolutely. And to answer Ciabatta2 and Terry Towel. Yes, the release of the poll will fire up the Liberals and may make Trudeau visit his seat more often. That is the point. It also creates doubt. If the people of Papineau know him the best and even they are not going to vote him into office what does that say? Anyone who has followed politics for awhile knows about this old tactic. Release an internal poll with good news and keep the others under wraps. As for the claim that a leading question was asked I have not seen any of evidence of that. Finally, this poll is not out of line for the results we are seeing for Quebec as a whole so why are people so surprised.

terrytowel

jjuares wrote:
Absolutely. And to answer Ciabatta2 and Terry Towel. Yes, the release of the poll will fire up the Liberals and may make Trudeau visit his seat more often.

If true NO it won't make Trudeau visit his seat more often. He has star power he has not unleashed. His wife, his brother and his mother. All three can equally campaign in place of Trudeau.

jjuares wrote:
That is the point. It also creates doubt. If the people of Papineau know him the best and even they are not going to vote him into office what does that say? Anyone who has followed politics for awhile knows about this old tactic. Release an internal poll with good news and keep the others under wraps. As for the claim that a leading question was asked I have not seen any of evidence of that. Finally, this poll is not out of line for the results we are seeing for Quebec as a whole so why are people so surprised.

It didn't hurt Christy Clark one bit, and I doubt it would hurt Trudeau

jjuares

terrytowel wrote:

jjuares wrote:
Absolutely. And to answer Ciabatta2 and Terry Towel. Yes, the release of the poll will fire up the Liberals and may make Trudeau visit his seat more often.

If true NO it won't make Trudeau visit his seat more often. He has star power he has not unleashed. His wife, his brother and his mother. All three can equally campaign in place of Trudeau.

jjuares wrote:
That is the point. It also creates doubt. If the people of Papineau know him the best and even they are not going to vote him into office what does that say? Anyone who has followed politics for awhile knows about this old tactic. Release an internal poll with good news and keep the others under wraps. As for the claim that a leading question was asked I have not seen any of evidence of that. Finally, this poll is not out of line for the results we are seeing for Quebec as a whole so why are people so surprised.

It didn't hurt Christy Clark one bit, and I doubt it would hurt Trudeau


I agree it may not work. I should have been clear this is why it was done. As I said in another thread there are lots of leaders who have lost their seat and won the general election. But no matter how it gets spinned it is not good news for the Liberals.

Misfit Misfit's picture

The poll could've been released to convince the Bloc supporters to vote NDP to flush Trudeau out. 46% NDP support is just 4% shy of 50%. Some of that 46% might slip back to the Liberals but if they can get the Bloc supporters on side, they can seal over 50% of the vote and guarantee that Trudeau goes. I also think that if Trudeau loses his seat, he could very easily step down as leader. I also think Trudeau stepping down would be very good for the Liberal party.

Very Far Away

Ciabatta2 wrote:

If legit, I don't know why the NDP would want this poll released.  Particularly so early in the campaign.  Wouldn't they want to keep it underwraps so that Trudeau doesn't know he is in danger of losing?  This galvanizes Liberals.

Let's get real though.  Even if he does lose (unlikely) someone will step aside for him in some riding in Mississauga or Ottawa or Peterborough.  Trudeau is not going anyway.

 

I totally agree. It's stupid for NDP to release something like this. These are bad tactics for any party. If these numbers are really correct, then don't even talk about them in public. 

By the way, I believe Liberal leader will be elected easily in this riding.

Stockholm

terrytowel wrote:

If true NO it won't make Trudeau visit his seat more often. He has star power he has not unleashed. His wife, his brother and his mother. All three can equally campaign in place of Trudeau.

This I gotta see. Margaret Trudeau pounding the pavement in Villeray and Park Extension...reminding all those trendies of the good old days of the "Maggie and Pierre show". Honestly I can't think of anything more likely to drive DOWN support for Justin Trudeau than having Margaret Trudeau campaign for him in Papineau 

Misfit Misfit's picture

The poll could've also been released to draw soft Liberal supporters and undecided voters to the NDP in southern Ontario and elsewhere.

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

If true NO it won't make Trudeau visit his seat more often. He has star power he has not unleashed. His wife, his brother and his mother. All three can equally campaign in place of Trudeau.

This I gotta see. Margaret Trudeau pounding the pavement in Villeray and Park Extension...reminding all those trendies of the good old days of the "Maggie and Pierre show". Honestly I can't think of anything more likely to drive DOWN support for Justin Trudeau than having Margaret Trudeau campaign for him in Papineau 

Considering she has gone public about suffering mental illness, and is now an ambassador for The Canadian Mental Health Association, Margaret is more beloved then ever before.

No one can touch her because of the work she has done on behalf of mental illness. I doubt she would go door to door, but she would give speeches. She does appeal to women of her generation and women do make 51% of the population.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Terry, what's the point? IT'S OVER!

terrytowel

Misfit wrote:
Terry, what's the point? IT'S OVER!

Not in Papineau

Jacob Two-Two

I never thought Justin would lose his seat either, but I trust CROP. Not to say that one poll is conclusive, but it seems the danger is real.

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