Trudeau in trouble, trailing NPD in Papineau according to CROP, Quebec's gold pollster - Sep 17

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Jacob Two-Two

And I disagree that this is bad tactics. In this particular election we have a lot of soft voters who are looking for a strong anti-Harper candidate. Justin's seat being in trouble makes him look weak (weaker, I mean) and casts more eyes at the NDP. It wouldn't be a good idea in many elections, but it is in this one.

Jacob Two-Two

dp

jjuares

Very Far Away wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

If legit, I don't know why the NDP would want this poll released.  Particularly so early in the campaign.  Wouldn't they want to keep it underwraps so that Trudeau doesn't know he is in danger of losing?  This galvanizes Liberals.

Let's get real though.  Even if he does lose (unlikely) someone will step aside for him in some riding in Mississauga or Ottawa or Peterborough.  Trudeau is not going anyway.

 

I totally agree. It's stupid for NDP to release something like this. These are bad tactics for any party. If these numbers are really correct, then don't even talk about them in public. 

By the way, I believe Liberal leader will be elected easily in this riding.


I don't think it will do any discernible damage to Trudeau. Partially because it simply fits in with an established narrative. The Liberals are not doing all that well in Quebec. This may be partially his own doing as he prattles on about The Sherbrooke Declaration ( although that probably helps the Liberals in Ont.) However, it is not a positive for the Liberals as they now will have questions on this. You don't win campaigns by playing defence. Having said that I can think of one campaign where the leader being in trouble in his own seat did damage a party's prospect. That was when Don Getty lost his seat in Edmonton. It created a huge buzz and I had lots of comments at the door about it even though I was living in another part of the province. This was during the campaign. Getty lost his seat but won re-election for his gov. He lost stature within the province and his party though.

mark_alfred

Perhaps a coincidence, but Trudeau is going to have a rally in Montreal today.

bekayne

No one going to address the data from the Le Devoir article?

Charles

Half the population of Papineau turns over every five years and it's a highly transient rental population (three quarters are renters). "Previouslies" carry little weight in a riding like this. What matters is getting a representative sample and again, CROP is one of best polling companies in the country. They know how to get statistically valid results. 

When you don't like the results of a poll challenge the methodology. It's been happening in the US for many years. 

swallow swallow's picture

I seem to recall polls showing Jean Chretien behind the Bloc in internal polling in St. Maurice. 

Of course, Chretien didn't lose: the question was, which party do you prefer? The Liberal party was unpopular, but Chretien himself was popular enough to win despite this. (And his old seat is no longer a Liberal prospect, without him. Even though the Liberals currently hold it through a defection from the NDP, their vote there is about 10%.) 

What was the question in Papineau? Asked to choose between the Liberal party and the NDP, most people in Quebec say NDP. I imagine that's the case if the party leaders are named, too. And I imagine Muclair could beat Trudeau in Papineau. But for most voters in Papineau, it'll be Justin or the NDP candidate, who most I'll guess do not consider a household name. (She's better known in English, but I'm thinking less so in French and other languages.) But who knows, perhaps the francophone soft-nationalist vote will coalesce behind her now! 

As for Margaret Trudeau campaigning, I dunno. How's her French? 

Charles

I understand the question was candidate/party name/leader

swallow swallow's picture

As in, wouuld you vote for Anne Lagace Dowson of the NDP, led by Tom Muclair, or (rotate randomly)?

mark_alfred

Trudeau is in Papineau right now, I think.

DaveW

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
.... The notion that CROP would throw its credibility away to get a few bucks from the NDP is inane.

precisely, some people don't grasp that;a pollster has a reputation to maintain

for example, companies and institutions also pay for external auditors/accountants to come in and comb over their books and accounts; the company is not going to soft-pedal problems it finds there, or its reputation would suffer, which is their bread and butter

Stockholm

swallow wrote:

I seem to recall polls showing Jean Chretien behind the Bloc in internal polling in St. Maurice. 

...and those polls were not wrong. Chretien came very close to losing St. Maurice when he was PM. In 1993 he only won it by 500 votes and that was after half the Liberal campaign was devoted to helping him win his seat and that was in a rural riding where they played up to the hilt the message that having a PM as their MP would mean that patronage money would be showered on the riiding! 

DaveW

Charles wrote:

Half the population of Papineau turns over every five years ...

Nonsense. There are several distinct parts encompassed in Papineau riding, including the central Villeray neighbourhood, almost entirely francophone. It used to be a village outside city boundaries before being absorbed. It is heavily Bloc, or largely.  Justin wrote in his bio about getting the cold shoulder there repeatedly.

Then there is the western spur of Park Ex, which is  a helter-skelter area of crowded commercial streets (bordering leafy Town of Mount Royal, another world.) The people are generally both  "old" and new immigrants -- the Greeks and Italians are solidly Liberal, as in Pierre Trudeau is a god, while the newer waves of Indian and other South Asian people are less commited to the Liberals. When I was with the NDP there, we had a Bengali-speaking liaison, and the candidate often went to Sikh functions. Quite open to NDP.

Both parts of the riding are fairly rooted, even though there are many new arrivals, so: 50 per cent turnover?

Nothing in the federal census or poll data indicates anything like that.

Sean in Ottawa

Five points about this poll:

1) 315 is a lot in a single riding and they cannot target only one part of the riding to get this many surveys. You have to dial over 30,000 sample numbers to get this many completed surveys. For a national poll this is nothing but 315 completes in one riding is a lot.

2) The standard is always to ask the vote intention question first. Doing otherwise intentionally biases the results. I don't see Crop doing this and I don't even see a local campaign wanting to spend the money on this. I expect the survey was done with basic best practices as it was likely done to inform the NDP campaign. The bias of course is if this were the Liberals they would not release it and certainly not the day it was released.

3) The idea that this is a bad strategy to release is silly becuase, if true, it is not giving the Liberals something they did not know -- they have their own polls and reports from workers. In fact there is little to gain from releasing these polls normally but this is an exception. There are a few ridings where there is a candidate all other parties would love to see defeated -- even if another party wins. If a leader is close to defeat all the other parties might collapse to let the strongest take that candidate out. This poll result may well leave the BQ and CPC campaigns wanting the NDP to win the seat to embarass Trudeau just as either of them would be delighted to see Tom Mulcair lose his. Releasing that poll encourages not just tactical voting but suggests to the other parties (CPC BQ) that they may as well hold their fire in the riding and spend their resources elsewhere hoping the NDP defeats Trudeau. Similarly, the BQ could release a poll if they were on the edge of defeating a Conservative in the hopes that the other parties might want to let them do it if they were, themselves, too far back. Not sure this strategy is certain to work but it is definitely a viable one.

4) I suspect the poll was a pleasant surprise for the NDP who decided to use it -- I doubt it was cooked. It might be a hard poll to cook in many respects becuase the demographic advantages each party (between LPC and NDP) claims are debatable with each other (both claim to appeal to youth etc.). This is unlike a bias to or from the Conservatives which can easily be done by manipulating the gender and age balance -- younger and female -- you get NDP-Liberal; older and male you get Conservative. that said, there are a number of other variables. Yes I know there are also polls suggesting the Liberals are older than NDP but...

5) Polls are a numbers game and while they say polls are accurate 19 time in 20 -- I suspect is it more likely lower -- even when done perfectly. The 19 in 20 standard comes from assumptions I doubt remain valid in 2015. Secondly that ability to reach, the time of day (in commute, home during day), the likelihood to have the point of contact (do polls on a computer or have a landline that is not blocked to unknown numbers) or the timing of the poll (in national news cycle - what stories are making the news that day) is already liable to bias the survey. The result means that a survey can be unintentionally biased in many ways.

I don't think the poll was cooked by the NDP but I also would take it with a truckload of salt. I would still think it unlikely Trudeau would lose his seat and would need a number of polls to get me to think otherwise. As well there is a lot at stake for the Liberals. If they are really say 5 points behind, the Liberals would win the seat. I say this becuase the Liberals (with or without this poll) actually know if they are in danger. If they are, there will be an operation to get out the vote in the riding and there will be many, many campaign workers to do that.

Getting out the vote is more sophisticated than ever before and can overcome huge deficits. First there are more non-voters than there used to be. This means the pool of people who would only vote with a push is larger than it used to be. Second, the technology is very sophisticated. The parties are able to track their support to the person and now they have real-time data about who has voted (thanks to the so-called "fair elections act." If they have the resources they know who to call who has said they would vote for their candidate and can send a car to get them and bring them to the polling station. You can be sure that Trudeau will have armies of people to do this in his riding.

For a leader to fail you have to have a few things happen either:

1) they don't really care as their campaign is going down anyway and the leader already sees the writing on the wall and would resign anyway

2) they have poor levels of volunteers, a lack of funds or incompetent people on the ground in the riding

3) the campaign has failed so badly that they are nowhere near in contention (perhaps leader ran in the wrong riding or voting has swung away from his party regionally to an extreme)

4) The leader is extremely unpopular in his own riding

5) they simply did not see it coming (see point 2 as that has to be true for this to be true)

While Trudeau is no golden boy in Quebec none of the above is true: The Liberals are behind but not out of it -- and not out of it in the region Trudeau is contesting. They have huge numbers of volunteers and likely their best people would be put to top ridings that they feel merit attention. A leader riding where the region has the party behind would certainly get this support. Trudeau is controversial but not overwhelmingly hated in his riding.

I expect Trudeau to win this seat by a double digit advantage unless something changes radically in the next few weeks.

terrytowel

Sean in Ottawa (as usual) says it the best

DaveW

Montreal Gazette has new PostMedia poll, showing a much closer race:

http://montrealgazette.com/news/national/trudeau-has-narrow-lead-over-nd...

The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll shows a tight race is unfolding in the riding with Trudeau leading by a slim five percentage points advantage.

Trudeau, the Liberal leader, has the support 33 per cent of voters compared with 28 per cent for New Democratic Party challenger Anne Lagacé Dowson, the poll says.

Support for the Bloc Québécois and Conservative candidates is pegged at 9 per cent each but the undecided rate is high, 21 per cent, showing the race to the Oct. 19 federal election is far from over.

Mainstreet surveyed 783 voters in the riding using a mixture of landlines and cell phones. With a sample this size the margin of error is plus or minus 3.49 per cent 19 times out of 20.

 

 

jjuares

terrytowel wrote:

Sean in Ottawa (as usual) says it the best


I agree. I suspect when it's all over Trudeau wins this riding by a reasonable but not overwhelming margin.

Charles

The 50% turnover was cited by Alice Funke based on census data. 

 

DaveW wrote:

Charles wrote:

Half the population of Papineau turns over every five years ...

Nonsense. There are several distinct parts encompassed in Papineau riding, including the central Villeray neighbourhood, almost entirely francophone. It used to be a village outside city boundaries before being absorbed. It is heavily Bloc, or largely.  Justin wrote in his bio about getting the cold shoulder there repeatedly.

Then there is the western spur of Park Ex, which is  a helter-skelter area of crowded commercial streets (bordering leafy Town of Mount Royal, another world.) The people are generally both  "old" and new immigrants -- the Greeks and Italians are solidly Liberal, as in Pierre Trudeau is a god, while the newer waves of Indian and other South Asian people are less commited to the Liberals. When I was with the NDP there, we had a Bengali-speaking liaison, and the candidate often went to Sikh functions. Quite open to NDP.

Both parts of the riding are fairly rooted, even though there are many new arrivals, so: 50 per cent turnover?

Nothing in the federal census or poll data indicates anything like that.

mark_alfred

Grenier is a bit skeptical:  http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-papineau-se...

That said, it's been gold for the NDP in their attacks on the Liberals.

nicky

Even on the Mainstreet numbers Justin is hardly home and dry. 33% is not very impressive for an incumbent MP who is leader of a major party. There a lot of evidence that he is running behind his party. The Papineau polls augment that evidence.

DaveW

Papineau is unlike many other ridings in Quebec in that it was a real three-way race in 2011, and since then one of those 3 parties has basically collapsed ;

so, with 2.5 parties, where do those 10,000 or so free-agent ex-Bloc votes go now?

the NDP is much much more compatible with bloquistes than Justin, who has entire swathes of the riding where he is not too welcome

In 2011:

Justin, 16,429;

NDP, 12,102;

Bloc, 11,091.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papineau_%28electoral_district%29

 

 

josh

DaveW wrote:

Montreal Gazette has new PostMedia poll, showing a much closer race:

http://montrealgazette.com/news/national/trudeau-has-narrow-lead-over-nd...

The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll shows a tight race is unfolding in the riding with Trudeau leading by a slim five percentage points advantage.

Trudeau, the Liberal leader, has the support 33 per cent of voters compared with 28 per cent for New Democratic Party challenger Anne Lagacé Dowson, the poll says.

Support for the Bloc Québécois and Conservative candidates is pegged at 9 per cent each but the undecided rate is high, 21 per cent, showing the race to the Oct. 19 federal election is far from over.

Mainstreet surveyed 783 voters in the riding using a mixture of landlines and cell phones. With a sample this size the margin of error is plus or minus 3.49 per cent 19 times out of 20.

 

 

 

Shows the difference between paid and not for pay polling.

nicky

Even on the Mainstreet numbers Justin is hardly home and dry. 33% is not very impressive for an incumbent MP who is leader of a major party. There a lot of evidence that he is running behind his party. The Papineau polls augment that evidence.

robbie_dee

As it stands, any one of the Libs, NDP or Conservatives could still finish with the most seats, and due to the highly regional nature of current vote splits it is at least conceivable that the Liberals could win the most seats even while Trudeau loses his own seat.

I think if the Liberals win the most seats, someone else will step aside to let Trudeau win and take a crack at forming government. Conversely, though, even if the Liberals finish ahead of the NDP, if they finish behind the Conservatives AND Trudeau loses his seat he's gone. The reason is because both the Liberals and NDP will be under enormous pressure to work together to dump Harper, but Trudeau has already gone on record as saying he won't attempt to replace Harper if Harper finishes with more seats. I imagine there are a number of people in his caucus who feel differently, though, and if Trudeau gets knocked out that would give them an opportunity to pounce. Also explains why the NDP would be particularly eager to defeat Trudeau as its their best path to power.

 

Pondering

mark_alfred wrote:

Grenier is a bit skeptical:  http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-papineau-se...

That said, it's been gold for the NDP in their attacks on the Liberals.

According to the poll report posted by Le Devoir the sample included 117 male respondents and 258 female respondents. .

I had no idea Papineau has such an overwhelmingly female population! 

Very Far Away

Sean in Ottawa.

You wrote: "The idea that this is a bad strategy to release is silly becuase, if true, it is not giving the Liberals something they did not know".

How come someone like you say "silly" for someone else's idea? How would you feel if someone tells you that your post is silly?

I always thought this is an open discussion for open minded people. Everybody has an opinion, and this is mine. If we don't agree with someone else's idea, we can simply say we don't agree with him / her. How difficult is it to do that?

Also, the last sentence of your post is:

"I expect Trudeau to win this seat by a double digit advantage unless something changes radically in the next few weeks."

If this is what you expect, it means that releasing this poll won't have enough effect to beat Liberal leader in the riding, will it?

In this case, releasing the poll is useless, isn't it?

Thanks.

 

Jacob Two-Two

Seriously josh? You're giving Mainstreet more credibility than CROP? Give your head a shake, buddy. I thought you were just being a little stubborn, but that sounds more delusional. Your antipathy towards the NDP is affecting your ability to think rationally.

Jacob Two-Two

Hey VFA. Your post is silly. :p

josh

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
Seriously josh? You're giving Mainstreet more credibility than CROP? Give your head a shake, buddy. I thought you were just being a little stubborn, but that sounds more delusional. Your antipathy towards the NDP is affecting your ability to think rationally.

No, I'm giving an independently-conducted poll more credibility than a party-bought poll.

Jacob Two-Two

Well, I think that's silly. Angus Reid is, in my opinion, the most reliable polling company in Canada. This opinion has been formed over decades of seeing them consistently get better results than other companies. It's the record that matters and only the record. Do I care if the Conservatives commission a poll from them that has numbers I don't like? No. I don't care at all. I would still trust their numbers over any other pollster because it is just senseless to think they would throw away that hard-won reputation to get a job from the Cons. There is no upside for them. Honestly, you're just not thinking clearly. Good polling companies don't slap bad polls together for a paycheque. CROP is a good polling company. Mainstreet is total bullshit.

DaveW

thanks for settling that matter, JTT

DaveW

The Gazette pursues the polling issues:

http://montrealgazette.com/news/national/validity-of-ndp-sponsored-poll-...

“Where did all the people who voted Liberal in the last election go?” a Liberal official asked. “It looks like they unintentionally under-sampled 2011 Liberal voters and oversampled 2011 NDP voters.”

The NDP defended the poll.

“We have confidence in the poll’s methodology,” said NDP spokesperson Marc-André Viau.

Stockholm

Forum just released a poll of Toronto Centre where 56% of respondents said they voted Liberal in 2011 and just 21% said they voted NDP. The actual popular vote for 40% Liberal 37% NDP.

Where did all the people who voted NDP in 2011 in Toronto Centre disappear too???

Even with that skew - McQuaid was still ahead 41% to 40%!

terrytowel

David Akin reports that the NDP has sent out a fundraising letter based on that Papineau poll

Saying "If Justin is at risk of losing his own seat, how can he defeat Stephen Harper?"

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/644988559418617856

jjuares

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
Well, I think that's silly. Angus Reid is, in my opinion, the most reliable polling company in Canada. This opinion has been formed over decades of seeing them consistently get better results than other companies. It's the record that matters and only the record. Do I care if the Conservatives commission a poll from them that has numbers I don't like? No. I don't care at all. I would still trust their numbers over any other pollster because it is just senseless to think they would throw away that hard-won reputation to get a job from the Cons. There is no upside for them. Honestly, you're just not thinking clearly. Good polling companies don't slap bad polls together for a paycheque. CROP is a good polling company. Mainstreet is total bullshit.

I agree, you have settled this in my opinion. It also is fair to note that the NDP almost certainly released this poll because of the results. I would be willing to bet that every party is sitting on poll results that are not good news.

quizzical

they didn't sit on it though they released it right away as someone complained about above.

and how can you sit on a poll? they're out of date by the next day.

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
I posted this under another topic: It's a little simplistic to dismiss this as an "NDP poll." About three weeks ago I heard that internal NDP polling showed that Trudeau was in trouble in Papineau. The party did not release that poll because they knew it would be dismissed as partisan. Instead they commissioned CROP, a respected independent pollster, to take its own soundings. They had good reason to expect their own poll would be confirmed but the point is that they sought independent confirmation.

knownothing wrote:
Trudeau is in trouble. I said it weeks ago and everyone shouted me down. Once this news spreads that he won't even be sitting in the House the progressive vote will stampede to Mulcair. That is why the Libs don't want people to talk about Trudeau losing in Papineau.

The 2011 totals alone confirm the plausibility of Trudeau losing his seat. Both polls in this thread have him at the same level of support he had in 2011. The reason Trudeau won handily is because the Bloc candidate in that riding was a former MP who helped to stem an orange tide sweeping through the province. This time the Bloc has no such advantage, so it's up on the air. If the non-Trudeau vote coalesces behind any candidate, Trudeau will not retain the seat.

jjuares

quizzical wrote:

they didn't sit on it though they released it right away as someone complained about above.

and how can you sit on a poll? they're out of date by the next day.


By sitting on it I mean not releasing it. Sheesh. Yes, they released it and they picked a good day to do it-debate day. As Lennon would say they are playing mind games.n

terrytowel

jjuares wrote:
quizzical wrote:

they didn't sit on it though they released it right away as someone complained about above.

and how can you sit on a poll? they're out of date by the next day.

By sitting on it I mean not releasing it. Sheesh. Yes, they released it and they picked a good day to do it-debate day. As Lennon would say they are playing mind games.n

And fundraising off of it

Ciabatta2

Yeah it just looks stinky on the part of the NDP.  Trudeau has a lot of sympathy built up after waves of battering from the Conservatives.  As unfair as it may be (and irrational), most neutrals won't like the look of the NDP gloating about Trudeau maybe losing his seat a month before the election.  Bad play.  Certainly a double standard, but regardless it doesn't reflect well.

KarlL

I don't think that anyone can entirely discount the possibility that Trudeau could lose Papineau.  It has happened before that a relatively popular third party leader has lost in a regional sweep (NDP Leader David Lewis losing to Ursula Appolloni in York South in 1974) but it is a very unusual event, not least because of the extra publicity they get from the campaign.  David Lewis also got tangled up in wage and price control issues.

It also happens to Opposition leaders on rare occasion, Ignatieff being the most recent case in point, though he was languishing 11 points or more behind where Trudeau currently sits nationally (I recognize the Quebec numbers are far different). And he was very much seen as a donkey.

But it is more often seen in a local protest vote against a sitting or incoming Prime Minister or Premier (Clyde Wells in NL, Robert Bourassa in one of his winning elections, Christy Clark in BC) and Mackenzie-King on at least one occasion OR in a battering like David Peterson in 1990 and in the federal sphere, Campbell in the 1993 wipeout.  

Opposition and especially Third Party Leaders don't tend to develop the same level of local animousity and to some extent seem to get "adopted" by a broader than usual base in their constituencies as a sort of mascot.

If Tom Mulcair is running away with the election, then maybe Trudeau will lose Papineau but that isn't where we are today.  If anything, the Liberals have come up a bit in QC in some of the recent polls.

 

 

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

terrytowel wrote:

David Akin reports that the NDP has sent out a fundraising letter based on that Papineau poll

Saying "If Justin is at risk of losing his own seat, how can he defeat Stephen Harper?"

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/644988559418617856

Not sure if this is news... as someone on the NDP mailing list, a fly sneezing is usually considered sufficient reason for them to send out another fundraising letter.

sherpa-finn

josh wrote:

Shows the difference between paid and not for pay polling.

Absolutely. Because Mainstreet did their Postmedia poll for free, as a public service to Canadians.

[Snorts with derision]

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The riding poll at 308 has Trudeau thirty points ahead of the NDP in Papineau(at least the one they had on their yesterday).   At least one of those polls has to be way the puck(see how I worked a hockey pun in there?)wrong.

sherpa-finn

Just to be clear, the riding by riding projections on 308 are not polls, per se. But an application of national or provincial poll results to the 2011 election figures in order to try to translate voter intention numbers into projected seat distributions. So no "real" local numbers are behind 308's riding-specific numbers.

Though I too watch them like a hawk to try and track 30 or so swing ridings.

(Cross posted with a much grumpier Stockholm!)

Stockholm

Ken Burch wrote:

The riding poll at 308 has Trudeau thirty points ahead of the NDP in Papineau(at least the one they had on their yesterday).   At least one of those polls has to be way the puck(see how I worked a hockey pun in there?)wrong.

Pardon me for losing my temper but for the gazillionth time 308 DOES NOT CONDUCT POLLS!!!!! Grenier does not have a polling company. he has never conducted or commissioned a poll in his life. He is a self-styled "poll analyst". His site takes the average of all the national polls that OTHER people have conducted and he then assumes that every riding in the country will swing accoridng to the national polling average. I'm am SICK TO DEATH of people referring to his half baked "projections" at the individual riding level as if they were actual polls of those ridings. He is just doing a very crude hypothesis of what HE thinks will happen in each riding.

Stockholm

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Yeah it just looks stinky on the part of the NDP.  Trudeau has a lot of sympathy built up after waves of battering from the Conservatives.  As unfair as it may be (and irrational), most neutrals won't like the look of the NDP gloating about Trudeau maybe losing his seat a month before the election.  Bad play.  Certainly a double standard, but regardless it doesn't reflect well.

While there may be a small segment of people in English Canada who still feel sorry for "poor little Justin" and want to protect him from the big bad bullies in the other parties - i can assure you that sentiment is 100% non-existent in francophone Quebec. There is a reason why federal Liberal support is barely in double digits in francophone Quebec - its because Trudeau is an object of ridicule and derision. No one there feels sorry for him - they think he's a joke and they think that the rest of Canada must be nuts not to see what a vacuous airhead he is

KarlL

Ken Burch wrote:

The riding poll at 308 has Trudeau thirty points ahead of the NDP in Papineau(at least the one they had on their yesterday).   At least one of those polls has to be way the puck(see how I worked a hockey pun in there?)wrong.

To really put the cat amongst the pigeons, 308 lists Papineau as a safer seat for Trudeau than Outremont for Tom Mulcair.  NEITHER WILL LOSE THEIR SEATS!, though Gilles Duceppe may well lose his.

Pondering

Stockholm wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Yeah it just looks stinky on the part of the NDP.  Trudeau has a lot of sympathy built up after waves of battering from the Conservatives.  As unfair as it may be (and irrational), most neutrals won't like the look of the NDP gloating about Trudeau maybe losing his seat a month before the election.  Bad play.  Certainly a double standard, but regardless it doesn't reflect well.

While there may be a small segment of people in English Canada who still feel sorry for "poor little Justin" and want to protect him from the big bad bullies in the other parties - i can assure you that sentiment is 100% non-existent in francophone Quebec. There is a reason why federal Liberal support is barely in double digits in francophone Quebec - its because Trudeau is an object of ridicule and derision. No one there feels sorry for him - they think he's a joke and they think that the rest of Canada must be nuts not to see what a vacuous airhead he is

That's not true. Many Quebecers think well of him, they just think better of Mulcair. Separatists hate him with a passion but they are in a minority.

lagatta

Yes, Anne's candicacy is a breath of fresh air. I'm so sick of the "separatists" slur. That is not at all what this particular election is about.

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