A new American civil war

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CMOT Dibbler
A new American civil war

 

CMOT Dibbler

We hear a lot about the various civil wars that the United States has funded over the years. However, no one seems to entertain the possibility that a civil war could happen in the United States itself. Why is this? Is the US really so stable that a incredibly bloody internal conflict is beyond the realm of possibility?

Caissa

What would be the fissure?

Stargazer

Vermont wanting to secede from the US of A? The still bitter feelings between the north and the south?

[ 08 May 2008: Message edited by: Stargazer ]

wage zombie

economic collapse + energy crisis + debt camps?

Caissa

Are you talking a civil war with defineable territorial splits or are you talking class conflict?

CMOT Dibbler

Fuck, shit and bugger! That was a very strange opening post. Let me try to be a bit clearer.
Is Civil War, a possibility in the United States, or do the political realities of that country make such a conflict impossible?

CMOT Dibbler

quote:


Originally posted by Caissa:
[b]Are you talking a civil war with defineable territorial splits or are you talking class conflict?[/b]

territorial.

Michael Hardner

quote:


What would be the fissure?

Conservative/Liberal...

What else ?

Nanuq

"Conservative/Liberal...

What else ? "

That wouldn't last long. The conservatives have all the guns.

Doug

quote:


Originally posted by CMOT Dibbler:
[b]
Is Civil War, a possibility in the United States, or do the political realities of that country make such a conflict impossible?[/b]

Nothing's impossible, but it's not something I'd call likely anytime soon.

CMOT Dibbler

quote:


Originally posted by Doug:
[b]

Nothing's impossible, but it's not something I'd call likely anytime soon.[/b]


Why Not?

melovesproles

quote:


Why Not?

Because there is not a lot of daylight between the political elite in the US and any grassroots rebellion would be stomped down by the state.

CMOT Dibbler

quote:


Originally posted by melovesproles:
[b]

Because there is not a lot of daylight between the political elite in the US and any grassroots rebellion would be stomped down by the state.[/b]


Colombia has a strong military, and they are currently involved in a civil war.

What do you mean when you say there isn't enough daylight between the political elites in the US?

Fleabitn

"Is Civil War, a possibility in the United States, or do the political realities of that country make such a conflict impossible?"

It's not the political reality, but the weapons reality that would make a civil war in the USA a non-starter. In the US Civil War (~1860's) both sides were similarly armed--cavalry, cap and ball, short range artillery.
Today, even with a percentage of gun-toting yanks dusting off their AK-47's and the like, the forces of US control--militarized police, US army, Blackwater etc. can bring significantly more devastating firepower to the battle.

It is no stretch of the imagination to see US power parasites launch all the weapons at their disposal, including nuclear weapons, against their own citizens, inside the fatherland. The grunts on the ground will have no problem killing fellow citizens, following the inevitable propaganda campaign of demonisation and promises of bonus pay for severed ears collected.

Any attempt at open rebellion would be put down swiftly and ruthlessly with nary a compassionate thought in the diseased brains of the power psychopaths.

melovesproles

quote:


Colombia has a strong military, and they are currently involved in a civil war.


But where do they get that strong military from? Who is the number one recipient of American funding and weaponry in the Western hemisphere(#3 in the world behind Israel and Egypt)? Its like Comparing Jupiter and one of its moons. I suppose if the US became dwarfed by two much much larger superpowers who decided to use it as a battleground to fund and fight a proxy war we could see a Colombia style situation but thats not on the immediate horizon.

quote:

What do you mean when you say there isn't enough daylight between the political elites in the US?

The second post nailed it, where exactly is the fissure? I don't see anything significant enough to cause a civil war. The American left is more than willing to contort itself into a pretzel-compromise, collaborate, whats the dif? So I don't see "Liberals" or the "left" starting a civil war. Without control of the state they wouldn't have a chance anyways as they are less likely to own guns and more likely to favour non-violence than their fellow Americans.

As for a potential right wing populist uprising against a "Liberal" government, even with all their guns I don't think it would be much of a fight. Waco and Ruby Ridge were little reminders to that crowd under Clinton, we'll probably see something similar under another Democratic president if they get too fidgety.

CMOT Dibbler

quote:


The second post nailed it, where exactly is the fissure?

So you believe that even with the enormous laundry list of horrible social, economic and environmental problems the US is facing, the world' s only superpower is still a reasonably stable place?
Under what conditions do you feel a civil war would arise?

Thread drift: which superpower is fighting for control of the Colombia besides the United States?

CMOT Dibbler

quote:


Nothing's impossible

Even a carnivorous peanut butter and jelly sandwich?

melovesproles

quote:


Thread drift: which superpower is fighting for control of the Colombia besides the United States?

None that I know of, but the civil war is 40 years old now so the context of the Cold war is somewhat relevant.

quote:

So you believe that even with the enormous laundry list of horrible social, economic and environmental problems the US is facing, the world' s only superpower is still a reasonably stable place?

Where do you see the schism in the political class of the US leading to a civil war? So far one poster said Liberal/Conservative. I don't think that will happen because of what I said above. I think a further deterioration of the environment could lead to a civil war over important resources like water although its just as likely that the States would find a nearby water rich country to rally against.

nonsuch

Yes, there will be at least one civil war, and probably several, in the next 20 years.

Why? The peons eventually will figure out that they're getting zero dividend from the imperial wars they're financing and manning. That's not so much a civil war as a revolution. It will be sponataneous, ill-conceived, disorganized, and put down very quickly and violently. This will cause more unrest.

At the same time, there will be much discontent, protests and jailings, over unemployment, gas prices and hunger. More oppressive, anti-constitutional measures will be taken.

Blocks of progressive states will want to secede.
The federal government will come down all hot an heavy, making the situation worse.

A lot of national guards, mostly under 18 (because the grown-ups have been shipped off to Iraq) will be called upon to quell local rebellions, and they won't be be able to.

It's not a question of guns; it's a question of who holds the guns. Most of the guys holding the guns won't fire on their neighbours and cousins. The cold-blooded mercenaries are 5000 miles away, and spread way too thin.

When the smoke finally clears, the US will be split into 8 or 10 seperate territories, not counting Alaska, Hawaii and protectorates (all unharmed, waiting to see which way the cat jumps). Canada, probably five.

This is, for the people involved, a very bad thing, but for the continent, ultimately a good thing. Smaller, politically and economically consistent territories will make more stable countries. And they will be able to do less harm to the rest of the world.

Nanuq

quote:


Most of the guys holding the guns won't fire on their neighbours and cousins.

You have been following what's been happening in the former Yugoslavia, right?

There are numerous big countries around the world with ethnic and economic divisions far greater than what you find in the U.S. If India, Russia, Canada, Brazil, China, and Mexico have managed to pull through, the US is likely to as well.

nonsuch

Maybe so.

The US had a civil war, not all that long ago, and i'm not sure that's even healed: North vs South is one possible starting-point. Religion is another.

Yugoslavia is a different situation: that was an artificially, and recently, created country. The people fighting one another there were different nationalities, with ancient territorial claims, old enmities.

Then again, it may not be all that different.

Toby Fourre

Civil wars seem to grow out of disparity (real or imagined) between groups. It really gets going when people can blame their misfortune on another group and attacking that other group looks like a solution. From the outside looking in this looks insane, and it is, but it all can go out of control very quickly.

Is a new American civil war possible? Maybe, but the signs aren't really there yet. As the Bushites and their successors squeeze the formerly middle class and the afflicted start looking for scapegoats the stresses could build.

If it happens, it will probably hit a boiling point very quickly, a few months, or even weeks.

There is another factor which is already in place: a plethora of hate mongers. Those nasty, hate spewing talk show hosts are not harmless.

al-Qa'bong

quote:


Originally posted by Caissa:
[b]What would be the fissure?[/b]

Wal-mart vs. Costco.

Papal Bull

quote:


Originally posted by Nanuq:
[b]

You have been following what's been happening in the former Yugoslavia, right?[/b]


Yeah, but Yugoslavia is a really bad analogy for demographic make up in the US.

But hey! Let's all just go talk to John Titor!

bruce_the_vii

I don't think there could be open warfare about disparity, the target of more social spending can't be approached like that very well. However there has been modern "beer riots" in the usa already. In 1984 and again in 2002 Americans became upset at the deficit, government ineptitude and disparity. Citizens leaked what was private on to the street. They did this with comments, double entendres, so it was invisible to many including the government. However the damage done to privacy was pretty extreme, the protest was virolent but not effective.

[ 25 May 2008: Message edited by: bruce_the_vii ]

[ 25 May 2008: Message edited by: bruce_the_vii ]

[ 25 May 2008: Message edited by: bruce_the_vii ]