2018 Midterm and Beyond Elections

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NorthReport
2018 Midterm and Beyond Elections

What Do We Know About The 2018 Midterms Right Now?

Republicans are off to a terrible start.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-do-we-know-about-the-2018-midt...

NorthReport

How to Tell If Democrats Are Gaining Momentum for 2018

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-11/how-to-tell-if-democr...

NorthReport

Democrats moving senior staffers to Orange County in an effort to flip Republican House seats

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-republican-orange-county-targe...

NorthReport

Not yet mid-terms but nevertheless the Democrats need to start showing they can win again.

Is Georgia Poised for a Democratic Upset?

Demographic changes in the Atlanta suburbs could swing the state’s special election to the Dems—if challenger Jon Ossoff can take advantage of them.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/georgia-special-election-...

NorthReport

Sanders: Democrats should have put more into Kansas special

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/sanders-democrats-kansas-elections...

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Democrats link party rivals to DeVos as 2018 fights emerge

Teachers unions and others are attacking charter supporters in California, New York and New Jersey for doing the administration's 'dirty work.'

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/pro-charter-democrats-branded-as-t...

NorthReport
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The answer is, in short: Lots more Republicans are unhappy about the job Ryan is doing than felt the same way about Boehner or Gingrich, or Democrats felt about Pelosi.

More than three in ten (31%) of Republicans or Republican leaners disapprove of how Ryan is doing the job as Speaker. That's significantly higher than the number of GOPers who didn't like the job Gingrich (23% disapproval) or Boehner (19%) were doing.

"He's being punished by Republicans for not being able to pull together the GOP to pass the [American Health Care Act]," explained Neil Newhouse, a prominent Republican pollster. "It seems he's shouldering the blame rather than Trump."

A Republican House member and Ryan ally, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Ryan, echoed that sentiment. "Just like the [healthcare] bill itself, he is the victim of the Freedom Caucus, which cannot pass legislation on its own, but has the ability to stop anything," said the GOP member. "When they do, they damage the president, the Speaker and the entire Republican Conference as well. They possess the most dangerous thing in politics -- power without accountability."

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/cordray-ohio-election-banks-237272

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Here’s why Georgia’s special election isn’t the big threat to Trump Dems are making it out to be

  • Democrats are putting too much stock in the Georgia special election.
  • A Democratic win would embarrass President Trump, but not much.
  • Democrats need to spend more time on creating a winning national agenda.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/18/heres-why-georgias-special-election-isnt-...

NorthReport

Ossoff presently leading with 71% ov the vote but very early returns

NorthReport

Ossoff is forecast to win 48% of the vote and it appears to be headed that way tonite. Not too shabby!

Pogo

The thing with Gerrymandering ridings is that you try and spread your support to take as many of the other guys as possible.  It doesn't create votes it just spreads them to best advantage.  For every extra riding the votes are used to win, the margin of victory drops.  Still very unfair of course.  But the other side of the coin is that if the gerrymandering sides' support craters then a bunch of the thin margin victories can turn into defeats.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Ossoff is forecast to win 48% of the vote and it appears to be headed that way tonite. Not too shabby!

Republican candidates get 51%, Democrats 49%.  Ossoff has to hope that some of the voters for other Republicans don't vote in the runoff.

Pogo

They needed a win.  If symbolic victories are okay, then why didn't they throw some cash into the Kansas campaign?  Of course that was a symbolic victory that they maybe wanted to avoid...

josh

It's not over.  The runoff's on June 20.  It's still a tossup.

NorthReport

Trump Probably Won’t Defy Midterm Gravity

Here’s the other thing we know and which cases like the Georgia special election on Tuesday — and the one in Kansas last week — serve to demonstrate: Trump can’t defy gravity. These were bad results for Republicans. They’re consistent with what you’d expect from a public that would like to elect some Democrats to counterbalance an unpopular president and the Republicans’ hold on both branches of Congress.

You can debate exactly how bad these elections were for Republicans, of course. Each special election is subject to its own circumstances. But the narrative that “Democrats don’t have any wins yet” is dumb. Kansas’s 4th Congressional District, where Democrat James Thompson lost to Republican Ron Estes by just under 7 percentage points, is as red as Alabama. A Democrat coming close there is the sort of thing you’d see only in a really bad or perhaps even catastrophic midterm for the GOP.

The Georgia case is more ambiguous. Democrat Jon Ossoff — after winning a 48 percent plurality of the vote in the all-parties primary on Tuesday — is roughly even money to win the runoff against Republican Karen Handel. But the district has changed a lot, having gone from extremely red in 2012 to competitive in 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost to Trump by less than 2 percentage points there. I’m on the side that says the result on Tuesday is more consistent with a pretty bad outcome for Republicans in 2018, rather than a really bad one, although that might change depending on how the runoff goes.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-wont-defy-midterm-gr...

NorthReport

Just doesn't look good anyway you slice it - allowing this to happen we must ask ourselves, how stupid can Democrats be!

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-congressional-map-is-historical...

NorthReport

The Normal Rules Of Politics Still Apply To Trump — And To Republicans In Congress

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-normal-rules-of-politics-still-...