Brexit

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montrealer58 montrealer58's picture
Brexit

Today a poll in the UK by the Independent shows the Leave campaign ahead of the Remain campaign by 55% to 45% or 53% to 47%, depending on how you want to interpret the results.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-...

NorthReport

Too bad that many Brits dislike other nationalities so much. After Brexit maybe Londoners can vote to leave the UK, eh! 

iyraste1313

Rubbing further salt into the wounds of Europe's establishment, outspoken pro-Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage exclaimed that he said he would "destroy the old EU", together with 5-Star leader Beppe Grillo. As Reuters reports,

The European Union will start disintegrating after Italians pick the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement candidate as mayor of Rome on June 19 and Britons vote to leave the EU four days later, the leader of the UK Independence Party was quoted as saying.

 

UKIP's Nigel Farage told Italy's Corriere della Sera in an interview published on Saturday that British Prime Minister David Cameron should resign even if the 'Remain' camp won by a narrow margin in a June 23 referendum on EU membership.

 

"We can't lose this referendum ... there will be a Big Bang of British politics: nothing will remain the same," Farage said.

 

"On June 19 the 5-Star movement elects the mayor of the capital and changes Italy. On June 23 Britain leaves the EU and changes Europe. We will trigger a domino effect. After us, other northern European countries will leave, starting with Denmark," he said. "The EU is about to collapse, disintegrating in several pieces."

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The real question is why do the Europeans even want the British involved. The footie hooligans even mentioned the war. John Cleese is still hilarious and it still says a lot about the British attitude to a German dominated institution.

Quote:

England fans chanted “fuck off Europe, we’re all voting out” between violent clashes with police as the European Championship got underway.

Chants of “sit down if you hate the French” were also reported, according to the Guardian.

Bare-chested fans also sang songs about the IRA and German bombers being shot down as violence first broke out at around 6.20pm French time outside the Queen Victoria pub in the Old Port district of Marseille.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/euro-2016-england-fans-chant-about...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfl6Lu3xQW0

 

iyraste1313

The real question is why do the Europeans even want the British involved....

Brexit will bring a quick end to the European experiment, period, perhaps a deathblow to the forces of globalization and its elite oligarch backers...the Europeans per se don´t want this oligarchic system, totally nondemocratic bureaucratic system either...look around as country after country´s people are voting for the exit...and the left? Lost in the wilderness, their parties verging on extinction, and rightly so for their support of a fascist world order under unelected bureaucratic control, with of course the banksters and their global elites pulling the strings!

NorthReport

Cameron is a fool for allowing this referendum to have ever taken place.

Brexit Decision Too Close to Call in Poll as Stakeholders Lobby

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-11/opinium-poll-shows-u-k...

 

Unionist

The real question is... why do we (Canadians) care whether the U.K. stays in the EU or not? I admit I'm no expert, but what am I missing?

iyraste1313

 why do we (Canadians) care ...you may have noticed the little shock to the financials on Friday.....a taste of what´s to come...look at the markets especially the financial stocks in Europe...depite the trillions being printed buying treasuries and corporate!! bonds....it could be the spark of the collapse...canada´s already hurting bigtime! we will be facing serious hard times if BREXIT!

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Unionist: Thought I would bring up Brexit as there is more news than the US election, Russia, and Ukraine in "international news". The reason it is significant is that the whole EU could blow up if the UK goes. If a simple referendum can disentangle Britain from the EU, nationalist groups across Europe will respond in kind. I also think it is interesting as a study in Referenda.

NorthReport: Cameron and Osborne faced a split in their Conservative Party if they did not offer the Brexit referendum. If he did not agree to the referendum he would not have held his majority in the British House of Commons. If he loses Brexit, he is probably toast.

The remain camp are hoping they can corall enough moderate Tory, Lib-Dem and Labour votes to beat the right wing Tories and UKIPers who want to Leave.

Labour support for the EU is lukewarm, and they have lost a lot of votes directly to the UKIP similar to an NDP => Con shift sometimes seen in Canada. Labour need to get votes back from UKIP to seriously challenge the Tories.

Income inequality has become much worse under the EU-Tory leadership, and the referendum is a perfect opportunity to punish the Cameron Osborne government. Cameron will have to resign if Leave wins.

'Status Quo' and 'Change' referenda tend to work out for the Status Quo, as we have seen. I think Remain will win by a small margin, even if they have to steal the vote.

iyraste1313

Brexit campaigner Farage says UK, Italy to launch EU's disintegrationJune 11, 2016Leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) Nigel Farage poses during a media launch for an EU referendum poster  in LondonView photosLeader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) Nigel Farage speaks to media at the launch for an EU referendum poster in London, Britain June 7, 2016. REUTERS/Neil Hall

MILAN (Reuters) - The European Union will start disintegrating after Italians pick the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement candidate as mayor of Rome on June 19 and Britons vote to leave the EU four days later, the leader of the UK Independence Party was quoted as saying.

UKIP's Nigel Farage told Italy's Corriere della Sera in an interview published on Saturday that British Prime Minister David Cameron should resign even if the 'Remain' camp won by a narrow margin in a June 23 referendum on EU membership.

Bookmakers still predict Britons will vote to stay in the EU, while opinion polls have see-sawed - though one on Friday gave a 10 percentage point lead to the 'Leave' side, for which Farage is a prominent campaigner.

"We can't lose this referendum ... there will be a Big Bang of British politics: nothing will remain the same," Farage said. He said he would "destroy the old EU", together with 5-Star leader Beppe Grillo.

"On June 19 the 5-Star movement elects the mayor of the capital and changes Italy. On June 23 Britain leaves the EU and changes Europe. We will trigger a domino effect. After us, other northern European countries will leave, starting with Denmark," he said. "The EU is about to collapse, disintegrating in several pieces."

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

I think the fix is in. Remain will win by a slight margin.

swallow

I think there may be enough immigrant-haters in the UK to give Leave the win. 

NorthReport

The Conspiracy theories are for losers article is worth reading again and again and again

iyraste1313 wrote:

 why do we (Canadians) care ...you may have noticed the little shock to the financials on Friday.....a taste of what´s to come...look at the markets especially the financial stocks in Europe...depite the trillions being printed buying treasuries and corporate!! bonds....it could be the spark of the collapse...canada´s already hurting bigtime! we will be facing serious hard times if BREXIT!

NorthReport

Very disappointing
The leave forces have a 6% lead according to the latest poll just out today in the guardian

ikosmos ikosmos's picture

One aspect of the campaign worth noting is the role of foaming Russophobia.

Now the Russian government has said nothing about the campaign - Kremlin watchers actually differ as to which side the Putin government would actually support - unlike the US President, German Chancellor Merkel, et al, who have practically threatened the UK with dire consequences/fallout should they vote to leave the EU. So despite the "(bogeyman) Putin is in favour of Brexit" etc., and other fabrications, (especially by PM Cameron) the truth is that the US President and German Chancellor are doing what they claim others - ie, the Russians - are doing, i.e., interfering in a domestic matter.

Accuse others of what you yourself do. It's a favorite right-wing pastime the world over.

The "Kremlin watchers" say, OT1H, that Putin wants chaos in Europe, while others, OTOH, say that a stable, status quo Europe that isn't infected with the American Russophobic virus is just fine. But where the Russians stand is actually irrelevant because they aren't playing a role in the campaign at all. Well, other than their "sneaky silence" etc. and other actions popular among "evil doers", etc.

swallow

Laughing good one. 

NorthReport

Every day it seems there is another conspiracy theory Truly amazin!

NorthReport

----

Rev Pesky

The biggest single industry in the UK is the financial services industry. That industry lives mostly on the fact that the UK has it's own currency, but also has access to the EU. The blow to the financial services indusrty by the UK leaving the EU might not be a death blow, but it would be close.

Meanwhile, it's possible that Scotland votes to remain in the EU, and that would present a very serious problem to the UK. Ireland is not even voting on the question, and there's a reasonable chance the financial services industry would move there.

In that the UK was not part of the Euro, their leaving wouldn't have that much of an effect. However, given that the whole world's economy is on a knife edge, who knows what will nudge it over the edge? Interesting times.

ikosmos ikosmos's picture

European Council President Donald Tusk wrote:
As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety.

Brexit means the end of western civilization. I'd say that's a little alarmist. lol.

RT: Our Daily Brexit


 

iyraste1313

I'd say that's a little alarmist....

...not so sure......the markets are in panic right now, what with the Sun coming out for BREXIT!

What it may do, is sink global confidence in the western markets, leading to a run on gold and the collapse of the currencies....remember the system is totally fragile right now, everyone oversaturated with debt, the only think still holding it together being lunatic confidence in the Central Banks, likewise overwhelmed with bad debt as they continue to buy junk (bankrupt) corporate bonds to stimulate their respective finances and markets......

of course no one in these threads take these warnings seriously, totally complacent buried in faith to the corporatocracy!

NorthReport

The bookies who are usually more accurate than the pollsters are presently forecasting a 60% chance of a not leaving vote

The vote is on Jun 23 and as we approach referendum day more and more voters will choose to remain

iyraste1313

Lawmaker Critically Shot By "Britain First" Shouting Assailant Tyler Durden's picture by Tyler Durden - Jun 16, 2016 10:15 AM 

Update: Responding to unconfirmed allegations the shooter shouted "Britain First!" before the incident, the group Britain First has said:

A single eyewitness also claimed (unconfirmed) that the assailant “apparently” shouted “Britain First” during the attack, but this is pure hearsay at the moment.

 

There is LOTS of use of words such as “apparently” and “allegedly”.

 

That hasn’t stopped the media publishing multiple articles condemning Britain First for somehow being involved.

 

Britain First obviously is NOT involved and would never encourage behaviour of this sort.

 

As an MP and and a mother, we pray that Jo Cox makes a full recovery.

* * *

Update:  As BBG adds, campaigning was suspended in Britain’s European Union membership referendum after news of the attack, which happened just before 1 p.m., came out.....

quizzical

iyraste1313 wrote:
Lawmaker Critically Shot By "Britain First" Shouting Assailant Tyler Durden's picture by Tyler Durden - Jun 16, 2016 10:15 AM 

Update: Responding to unconfirmed allegations the shooter shouted "Britain First!" before the incident, the group Britain First has said:

A single eyewitness also claimed (unconfirmed) that the assailant “apparently” shouted “Britain First” during the attack, but this is pure hearsay at the moment.

 

There is LOTS of use of words such as “apparently” and “allegedly”.

 

That hasn’t stopped the media publishing multiple articles condemning Britain First for somehow being involved.

 

Britain First obviously is NOT involved and would never encourage behaviour of this sort.

 

As an MP and and a mother, we pray that Jo Cox makes a full recovery.

* * *

Update:  As BBG adds, campaigning was suspended in Britain’s European Union membership referendum after news of the attack, which happened just before 1 p.m., came out.....

ha!

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
As an MP and and a mother, we pray that Jo Cox makes a full recovery.

For those who may not have read it yet, she did not.

bekayne

Britain First is not associated with the referendum, but is a racist political party founded by former members of the British National Party

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britain_First

quizzical

Mr. Magoo wrote:
Quote:
As an MP and and a mother, we pray that Jo Cox makes a full recovery.

For those who may not have read it yet, she did not.

wow on the article. graphic description on how he shot her.

Quote:
Cox's death also brought international reaction, including a moment of silence in Ottawa during question period in the House of Commons following an emotional tribute from NDP MP Nathan Cullen.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/jo-cox-uk-lawmaker-attacked-1.3638278

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Today the British pound is going up because of speculation the murder would provide sympathy for the Remain campaign. I am thoroughly disgusted.

josh

I am normally not an overly conspiratorial person, but there are a lot of powerful economic and political forces who believe they have a lot to lose if leave wins.

NorthReport

Does murder seal the deal?

Hopefully not. Let's hope the UK population are so repulsed by this crime they vote massively to remain.

josh

If anything, it would seal the deal for remain.

swallow

josh wrote:
I am normally not an overly conspiratorial person, but there are a lot of powerful economic and political forces who believe they have a lot to lose if leave wins.

And the same could be said remain wins, too. 

josh

What forces are those?

swallow

The forces of English nationalism, Britain-firsters, immigrant-haters, and assorted racists. They do have a good deal of power, even if they are not the City of London. 

iyraste1313

“These are the dirty tricks the establishment will pull not to lose power.

The killer of Jo Cox was reportedly known to be mentally ill and taking meds; those who knew him said he was apolitical, and at least one witnesses was quoted as saying the killer shouted “Britain First” says he said nothing of the sort.

Nonetheless, the media and pro-EU politicians are running with the “Britain First assassinates anti-Brexit politician” narrative….”

iyraste1313

And the equity market exuberance over Jo Cox's death is being erased...

josh

swallow wrote:

The forces of English nationalism, Britain-firsters, immigrant-haters, and assorted racists. They do have a good deal of power, even if they are not the City of London. 

No economic power.

6079_Smith_W
bekayne

iyraste1313 wrote:

“These are the dirty tricks the establishment will pull not to lose power.

The killer of Jo Cox was reportedly known to be mentally ill and taking meds; those who knew him said he was apolitical, and at least one witnesses was quoted as saying the killer shouted “Britain First” says he said nothing of the sort.

Still going to stick with that?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/jo-cox-dead-thomas-mair-suspect...

Thomas Mair was named as a supporter in an online publication of the Springbok Club, an organisation which has defended the white supremacist apartheid regime in South Africa.

...The link between Mair and the Springbok Club goes back ten years when its online magazine, the Springbok Cyber Newsletter, was inquiring about the whereabouts of “Thomas Mair, from Batley in Yorkshire [who] was one of the earliest subscribers and supporters of “S.A. Patriot” who has moved from his address in the Fieldhead Estate district of the town.

https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2016/06/16/alleged-killer-british-mp...

According to records obtained by the Southern Poverty Law Center Mair was a dedicated supporter of the National Alliance (NA), the once premier neo-Nazi organization in the United States, for decades. Mair purchased a manual from the NA in 1999 that included instructions on how to build a pistol.

 

josh

6079_Smith_W wrote:

Nigel Farange's new billboard:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/16/nigel-farage-defends-uki...

Horrible to be on the same side as rascists and nativists, but if I lived in the UK I would vote for it.  The EU is economic neo-liberalism run amuck.  It needs to go.

6079_Smith_W

There are plenty in the same boat as you. A number of my friends have been talking about it. Here's some food for thought:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/16/brexit-eu-referendu...

Besides, you'd probably not be welcome at the celebration:

https://tompride.wordpress.com/2016/06/16/brexit-supporters-call-jo-cox-...

 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

iyraste1313, nice chart! However watch the pound rise before the UK close, and then the stocks go up in North America as the rich Brits move all their money into USDs. If you are participating in capital flight from the UK and market manipulation, what you want to do is keep the pound as high as possible so you can cash out as many dollars as you can. Then you can buy "boring" US dividend shares which pay 3% or whatever.

On a macro scale you could place enough bets with the betting shops with a few million pounds to keep the odds down, and then use the currency markets to make out like a bandit with your billions.

 

josh

6079_Smith_W wrote:

There are plenty in the same boat as you. A number of my friends have been talking about it. Here's some food for thought:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/16/brexit-eu-referendu...

Besides, you'd probably not be welcome at the celebration:

https://tompride.wordpress.com/2016/06/16/brexit-supporters-call-jo-cox-...

 

 

Thanks.

It has an executive so powerful it could crush the leftwing government of Greece; a legislature so weak that it cannot effectively determine laws or control its own civil service. A judiciary that, in the Laval and Viking judgments, subordinated workers' right to strike to an employer's right do business freely.Its central bank is committed, by treaty, to favour deflation and stagnation over growth. State aid to stricken industries is prohibited. The austerity we deride in Britain as a political choice is, in fact, written into the EU treaty as a non-negotiable obligation. So are the economic principles of the Thatcher era 

 

 

Unionist

josh wrote:

It has an executive so powerful it could crush the leftwing government of Greece; a legislature so weak that it cannot effectively determine laws or control its own civil service. A judiciary that, in the Laval and Viking judgments, subordinated workers' right to strike to an employer's right do business freely.Its central bank is committed, by treaty, to favour deflation and stagnation over growth. State aid to stricken industries is prohibited. The austerity we deride in Britain as a political choice is, in fact, written into the EU treaty as a non-negotiable obligation. So are the economic principles of the Thatcher era 

Which is why I asked upthread - why do we (foreigners) care? The people of the U.K. will need to decide their fate and future. But suggesting there's something inherently good about European unity? 

6079_Smith_W

Just remembering how things went down the last couple of times they didn't have unity. And this did, and potentially does still have an effect on us.

Again, not to say there aren't good arguments about how it is being done, but one can't separate the question from who is pushing it, and stands the most to gain right now (as in the article I posted).

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Odd discussion.

On the topic of Greece:  "they should leave, and hopefully destroy the EU as they go!!!"

On the topic of Britain:  "they should stay in the EU!  Don't let creepy nationalists and xenophobes have their way!!!"

swallow

Who said that, Magoo? 

Josh, the Brexiters look to me much like the Trump-backers. But yes, point taken about the diifferent types of pwoer each side has. 

bekayne

So, not so "apolitical" then.

The man charged with the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox has appeared in court and been remanded in custody.

Thomas Mair gave his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain", when he appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36567005

 

josh
NorthReport

Whew!

Ever hear of WW1 & WW2 as in before the European Community as Smith said upstairs?

Memories are short.

 

 

NorthReport

And so it should! 

Brexit’s Angry Voices Stilled by Murder of U.K. Lawmaker Cox

The flag over the British Parliament is flying at half-staff. On the grass on the square opposite sits a picture of Jo Cox, the Labour Party lawmaker who was killed on Thursday, surrounded by flowers and candles.

A suspect has been charged. The political debate remained silent on Saturday. The question Britons are asking themselves is whether it will resume with the same polarizing vitriol that has characterized the four-month campaign over whether the U.K. should leave the European Union.

Jo CoxJo Cox Photographer: Yui Mok/Press Association via AP Photo

Before Cox’s death, that debate had reached levels of anger almost unprecedented in the U.K. The closeness of the polls as the June 23 referendum approached led both sides to escalate their language. Just this week, the “Remain” camp described Nigel Farage, leader of the U.K. Independence Party, as “engaging in the politics of the gutter” over a poster showing a crowd of refugees entering the EU. Earlier, former Prime Minister John Major called “Leave” leader Boris Johnson, a former mayor of London, a ”court jester.

The “Leave” camp has sent its own barbs: When President Barack Obama said he wanted Britain to stay in the EU, Johnson wrotethat the “part-Kenyan” president may have issues with the country’s imperial legacy. One of the pro-separation groupstweeted after the massacre in an Orlando gay nightclub that Britons should “Act now before we see an Orlando-style atrocity here before too long.” At one point Johnson said the EU shared Adolf Hitler’s goal of unifying Europe, albeit by different means. Other “Leave” campaigners went further, mocking up German Chancellor Angela Merkel as Hitler.

-----

Trump Parallels

As with Trump, the “Leave” campaign had found that anti-establishment, anti-immigration messages were gaining traction with voters angry that globalization had left them insecure, and with the notion that migrants were pushing down wages and putting pressure on public services. As with Trump, it has been happy to stretch the truth far further than regular politicians, for instance putting up posters falsely announcing that Turkey was joining the EU.

The campaign now has a problem. Its two messages were that immigration needed to be controlled and that the referendum was a chance to strike back against establishment authority figures. The killing of a member of Parliament who had been an aid worker and campaigned for refugees makes those difficult to deploy.

The 52-year-old man charged with Cox’s murder, Thomas Mair, declared “death to traitors, freedom for Britain" when asked to give his name Saturday during his first court appearance in London, according to the Press Association.

 


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-17/brexit-s-angry-voices-...

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