Is this the end of areospace industry in Canada?

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SeekingAPolitic...
Is this the end of areospace industry in Canada?

******

SeekingAPolitic...

U.S. imposing 220% duty on Bombardier CSeries planes

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bombardier-cseries-duty-1.4308590

I don't want to sound alarmist but this going to be painful indeed.

Unionist

It's the end of spellcheck.

SeekingAPolitic...

Unionist wrote:

It's the end of spellcheck.

There is no need to attack my spelling considering that I have brain tumor that curtails my abiltiy to communicate clearly.  I think the story speaks for itself.  The US closed the market to canada's best hope for a major industry.  

NorthReport

Instead of getting defensive, why don't you just correct the spelling error, and thank Unionist for pointing it out.

SeekingAPolitic...

NorthReport wrote:

Instead of getting defensive, why don't you just correct the spelling error, and thank Unionist for pointing it out.

NR you provide a certain view on things, I will acknowledge that.  Lets do a case study.

I remember a time when timebandit cleaned my clock, TB saw huge problem in my logic and verbally/logic kicked my butt.  She pointed out where I went wrong and I respecfully acknowledged TB for pointing an error of my part.  Its was a teachable moment.  I do not double down on losing positions, I walk away and learn from the moment.

Lets compare this Unionist's comment, I fully acknowledge Unionist is a witty and sharp individual.  But Unionist comment was not teachable moment. I was not in the spirit to help me with my spelling rather it was to mock me for my poor spelling.  The secondary objective was to tie my poor spelling to the value of my comments in general and so to discredit my thoughts by implying that since my spelling stinks the rest of what I had to say was of dubious quality.  

Should I thank Unionist for mocking me.  Should I ask you NR to thank me for mocking you at this moment. Chew on that for a while.

Unionist

Ok, sorry for raising your spelling error.

My opinion: If the U.S. doesn't want to buy aircraft manufactured by Canadian corporations, they can fuck off and die. Why would we care exactly? Over to you.

SeekingAPolitic...

I just wanted to say that the closure of the US market will hurt canadian industry in significant way.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bombardier_CSeries_orders_and_deli...

Bombardier has an order book of 360 aircraft for Cseries, 75 of those orders are now in jeopardy and all future American orders now in limbo.  While this is troubling, the graph were net orders are presented is worst.  Without the Detla air lines order in 2016 of 75 aircraft these look numbers rather bare.  2015 -- 0     2016 -- 42   2017 -- 0 as middle year.  Delta was the big order, it gave Bombardier credability that people were interested.   I think a NDP or Liberal will find money keep the industry going, its stragetic industry.  Alot R&D happens and high value added jobs are on the line.  If the orders don't come the Cons will not surport the company for long.  The future of Bombardier is based on recent orders which delta was a big part off.  I leave at that.

 

 

voice of the damned

EDIT: Misunderstood the OP. Thought the article referred simply to US government purchases, not tariffs.

SeekingAPolitic...

The offical symbolic start of North American economic intergration was the FTA and then to NAFTA plus tons of reforms in regulation no one heard about.  In those days I was going throught my nationalist phase I remember my disappointment with the signing of FTA.  Today we export 32% of total GDP production to the world.  Of that about 77% goes to the US, so roughly 25% of our economy tied to the US.  Imagine the 4 widgets we produce, 1 in four is bought the US.  All 3 parties supported this reogranization of the economy but I believe NDP was a recent convert to the intgergation of the North America.   All was well until the day a natonalist was elected the US.  And then the hollowness of the economy intergation was exposed.

I think the whole will be paper overed and canada will submit to US demands.  But with election of Trump I can see that a trade war with the US is possbile now.  Trump does not care one bit about Canada or Mexico unless it leads to a 2nd trump admiration.  I think Trumps path to a second adminstration in part will be to trample the economy of Canada and Mexico.  While I can not blaim Con and Liberal governemts for raise of Trump.  But I can blaim the 30 years of passing Con and Libs governments in their blind faith of capitilist centred enonomic intergration.

Trump smells weakness and liberal government is fair pray.  All the parties realize that US buys 25% of our goods and Trump will use the knownledge get his way.  I am watching the CBC they claim that an up coming guest that explian how canada can effectively survive a trade war.  I am curious to see that segement and findout how Canada can counter the US in a trade war. 

voice of the damned

Well, it's an article of faith around here that Canada could easily find other trading-partners besides the US. When I've questioned that optimism in the past, I've been told that we just don't have leaders with enough imagination to seek out those new markets.

So, I guess if Washington wants to stop the sales of Canadian aerospace products in the US, all we need to do is make a few phone calls and find those alternative markets that are just waiting for us, right?  

SeekingAPolitic...

To actually change the focus the Canadian economy it will take generation, all the politicans make the right noises about expanding the exports to new nations.  But sadly our business class is largely focused on the US market, and makeup of the canadian industry is working against us.  We have few national champs  more middle sized companies and a ton of small business.  On average a small business will spend less on R&D and are less likely to export its products.  

https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/061.nsf/eng/h_03018.html#point7-1

A ton of good info and graphs on the issue.

http://www.investorsfriend.com/canadian-gdp-canadian-imports-and-exports/

A lot good info and graphs.

Heres the quote which refeclts the siutation.

"We hear a lot of talk about global trade. We hear about China buying Canada’s commodities. But the statistics for 2016 show that the United States still accounted for the vast majority of Canadian exports at 77%. The European union collectively, but excluding the UK. is the second largest export destination at 4.7% and China is third at only 4.4%. Things may be changing and China may quickly start to be an important  “customer” country for Canada. But the fact is, for now, when it comes to Canadian exports, the United States remains our number one destination by far. There are only 15 countries to which Canada exports more than $2 billion worth of goods annually. Most of the 192 or so countries in the world are insignificant to Canada in terms of our exports."

 

​We can change things ,alot of potential, but it will take a generation if even make strong effort.  CBC says 8:45 Quebce response by provincal leadership.  

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I agree with the sentiment that the US can fuck off and die. I also agree with the government's position that it will not do business with anyone suing us.

Fuck the USA. Let's tariff the shit out of their exports and do business with the EU.

They can isolate themselves into irrelevance.

BTW,Trump is an Orange fuckface and thankfully more and more Amercans are realizing that fact.

I  believe (and hope) he won't be President by this time next year. And I also believe (and hope) that their majority in all branches of government will come to an end in 2018. I'm no fan of the Democrats but I think they respect us much more than the Repugnicans.

Unionist

I know this sounds naive - but until such time as there is a democratic world government, I think we should start planning to produce more of what we import (i.e. need) and less of what we export (i.e. don't need). And we should try producing and consuming locally, even after we've elected that world government.

If Canada lives or dies by its exports to the U.S. - then Canada dies. I'm not looking forward to that funeral.

If this takes a generation or two, so be it. Have we got anything more important to do over the next few decades?

iyraste1313

It's a win win situation, this new trade war initiated by the USA.......

If the Political leadership of Canada do not forcefully counterattack this tariff, leading to continuous tit for tat, then the field is wide open for new political forces for national sovereignty...hopefully to be led by activists with a strong anticapitalist orientation...

whatever happens now.........movements for national, bioregional and community autonomy and self sufficiency are guaranteed to arise

SeekingAPolitic...

Unionist wrote:

I know this sounds naive - but until such time as there is a democratic world government, I think we should start planning to produce more of what we import (i.e. need) and less of what we export (i.e. don't need). And we should try producing and consuming locally, even after we've elected that world government.

If Canada lives or dies by its exports to the U.S. - then Canada dies. I'm not looking forward to that funeral.

If this takes a generation or two, so be it. Have we got anything more important to do over the next few decades?

I agree our need for the US import market is real problem.  We are giving the US the ability to politically blackmail Canada by threats to our trade dependence on the US.  

We lack in Canada imagination or poverty of imagination.  Our leaders have attended university in the Anglo Saxon world for the most.  Few I suggest have studied at the contential universites and even less in Asia.  These individual support a anglo saxon capitalism becasue they don't know any else.  They talkup capitalism (or the anglo saxon model) look how american capitalism raised up millions from poverty.  But no talks about raises about half billion chinesse who were raised up from abject poverty to something resembles middle and working class in China.  I can tell you they did not apply anglo saxons capitilism to get that result.  How did 100 million japenesse achive after ww2 what took 2 centuries to accomplish in the north america but only took 35 years in japan.  Same thing for the Germans and South Koreans they passed on Anglo Saxon as rubbish and went their own way.  And no Asians are not racially smarter or something ridiclous like that.  These nations and leaders were not trapped in any illusions that US system was the pinnalce system of economics and polictical success.  They organizated there societes in different way the American did it.  They did lack not imagation and cofidence.  I am afraid that Canada lacks the courage and confidence to something diffent than the US.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

The first and probably last thing I have ever agreed with Couillard about.

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/couillard-urges-ottawa-take-hard-line-against...

I can only hope the federal government listens.

For Québec,they should with the cooperation of the Atlantic provinces impose a 500 percent tariff on our Hydro electricity exports. That would be a good start.

Unionist

alan smithee wrote:

For Québec,they should with the cooperation of the Atlantic provinces impose a 500 percent tariff on our Hydro electricity exports. That would be a good start.

Indeed.

I'll never forget how, during the 1998 ice storm, Hydro customers in the "dark triangle" (south shore) languished for weeks without power - and it was later revealed that Hydro had selectively turned off transmission to Québec customers in order to continue to meet its contractual obligations to New York.

We should stop importing oil (which we don't need) and exporting hydro until such time as all our needs are met.

Misfit

The FTA and NAFTA force us to meet US needs for our energy even if we are short for ourselves.

SeekingAPolitic...

Watching the CBC,

Tariffs on Bombardier up 80% for a whopping 300% total.

As for NAFTA US is making "Crazy" demands on Canada and Mexico CBC reporter said.  Content rules for autoparts with propasals Canada/Mexico will find extremely painful.  There are reporting that an American industry maginize reporting that Trump adminstration wants out NAFTA(not sure how credible this).  We shall see where this goes.

Rev Pesky

From SeekingAPoliticalHome:

Today we export 32% of total GDP production to the world.  Of that about 77% goes to the US, so roughly 25% of our economy tied to the US. 

Remember that GDP includes many items that wouldn't be exported in any case. Services to the elderly, local businesses dealing with local customers, et cetera.

​Exports to the USA are actually a much larger part of the Canadian economy, and while their exports to us are important, we are only about a tenth of their market. Our exports to them are a huge part of our economy.

​Also, there really isn't any way to replace them as a customer. After all, we share a land connection close to 9,000 kms long. There are large parts of the USA market that are closer to Canada than they are to other parts of the USA, and vice versa. It's almost twice as far from Vancouver to Ottawa as it is from Vancouver to Los Angeles. 

Trade with Europe, however much it is to be desired, will never amount to anywhere near what trade with the USA is. Our best bet for expanding foreign trade is to the Orient, but even that requires shipping which increases costs by quite a margin.

No, sorry to say, but we are tied to the USA for better or worse, and there is no way around that. Right now it looks awful because of the unstable ignoramus that is president. Maybe next time around they'll elect someone with a brain, and a more relaxed attitude. We can hope, I guess. 

WWWTT

Here’s a few points from my perspective. 

From what I understand, even Bombardier still believes these super high tariffs wil be shot down. Then there’s the claim from Boing that the Canadian governments unfairly subsidize to allow Bombardier to dump products.  If this is true then to what extent? And should the practice continue. 

Another tid bit is China and India markets. The fastest growing int the world. Apparently there was just a huge order with India and there is freekin huge interest from the Chinese! 

China has entered into the commercial aircraft manufacturing sector and recently released their version with bombardiers help. So the competition is getting fierce and it seems bombardier is holding their own. 

Perhaps Boing is scared Bombardier is in a better position for future growth/expansion and is pissed off US airline is helping fuel Bombardier? Obviously to some extent. 

Either way, there’s a lot of big players coming up in the world that Canadian corporations are looking to promote Canada to. US is yesterday, #2 economy and in 20 years Chinas economy will be double the US and by that time the Indian economy will be the same as US maybe bigger. It’s not the end of the world but it is the end of the old world order

SeekingAPolitic...

Rev

I would counter with info I find in world bank database.  Export of GDP.  We could produce more for the domestic market that would lessen the need for the us market.  Geographic agrument is powerful but hoping better treatment from the us is a passive move I would to think we could do something active to counter the trend of US market.  Being held hostage american trade policy does not make for healthy domestic and US - Canada politics.  Trade flows can adjusted for a cost.

1960 - 17%

1990 - 24%     86 cents AM = 100 cents CAD

2000 - 44%    67 cents AM = 100 cents CAD PEAK---

2001 Jan 33 billion dollars of exports to US that month. Surplus of 11 billion US that month.  from 1997 earliest record in database to 2017 this month had the 2nd largest surplus on record. total exports that month 39 billion to all countries 33 billion in exports to US was part the 39 billion.  That was 85% off all exports went to US market. As off july 2017 that number stands at 75%. Suplus 3 billion with US.

 

2002 - 40%    63 cents AM = 100 cents CAD

2008 - 34%    94 cents AM = 100 cents CAD

2009 - 28%    88 cents AM = 100 cents CAD GLOBAL COLLASPE

2016 - 31%

I wanted the point out that Canada was less intergrated with US economy in past but I found that intrigued me was mapping the currency on it.  I willing to say that currency levels played large role with FTA and NAFTA in growth canadian exports to the US.  Then I went to the Stas Can export database add in raw exports numbers to above the numbers.

SeekingAPolitic...

WWWTT wrote:

Here’s a few points from my perspective. 

From what I understand, even Bombardier still believes these super high tariffs wil be shot down. Then there’s the claim from Boing that the Canadian governments unfairly subsidize to allow Bombardier to dump products.  If this is true then to what extent? And should the practice continue. 

Another tid bit is China and India markets. The fastest growing int the world. Apparently there was just a huge order with India and there is freekin huge interest from the Chinese! 

China has entered into the commercial aircraft manufacturing sector and recently released their version with bombardiers help. So the competition is getting fierce and it seems bombardier is holding their own. 

Perhaps Boing is scared Bombardier is in a better position for future growth/expansion and is pissed off US airline is helping fuel Bombardier? Obviously to some extent. 

Either way, there’s a lot of big players coming up in the world that Canadian corporations are looking to promote Canada to. US is yesterday, #2 economy and in 20 years Chinas economy will be double the US and by that time the Indian economy will be the same as US maybe bigger. It’s not the end of the world but it is the end of the old world order

Lets deal with india first.  The thing with trade is what you produce the other person must be interested in buying and more by a wide margin they can afford.   Lets see what Canada exports to India. in 2016

 11113 Code - Dry Pea and Bean Farming 1,133,881= 1 billion 133 million 881 hundreds of thousands 

21239 - Other Non-Metallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying565,383

21211 - Coal Mining448,148

32212 - Paper Mills275,628

21223 - Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc Ore Mining258,199

32211 - Pulp Mills196,318

21222 - Gold and Silver Ore Mining154,711

32518 - Other Basic Inorganic Chemical Manufacturing129,633

41811 - Recyclable Metal Wholesaler-Distributors75,540

33141 - Non-Ferrous Metal (except Aluminum) Smelting and Refining63,285

33451 - Navigational, Measuring, Medical and Control Instruments Manufacturing44,515

33331 - Commercial and Service Industry Machinery Manufacturing42,426

33399 - All Other General-Purpose Machinery Manufacturing35,460

31122 - Starch and Vegetable Fat and Oil Manufacturing34,581

32521 - Resin and Synthetic Rubber Manufacturing29,339

33641 - Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing27,305

33422 - Radio and Television Broadcasting and Wireless Communications Equipment Manufacturing23,735

33111 - Iron and Steel Mills and Ferro-Alloy Manufacturing23,628

32599 - All Other Chemical Product Manufacturing19,769

33411 - Computer and Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing19,632

33329 - Other Industrial Machinery Manufacturing18,650

33291 - Metal Valve Manufacturing18,236

32519 - Other Basic Organic Chemical Manufacturing17,479

33361 - Engine, Turbine and Power Transmission Equipment Manufacturing17,386

41819 - Other Recyclable Material Wholesaler-Distributors16,714

Sub-total3,689,580

Others293,397

Total (All Industries)3,982,978

What we import from India

32411 - Petroleum Refineries

388,874

 

33991 - Jewellery and Silverware Manufacturing

316,971

 

32541 - Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing

250,562

 

32519 - Other Basic Organic Chemical Manufacturing

228,859

 

31523 - Women's and Girls' Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing

202,544

 

31412 - Curtain and Linen Mills

181,454

 

31171 - Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging

153,208

 

31522 - Men's and Boys' Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing

117,030

 

33635 - Motor Vehicle Transmission and Power Train Parts Manufacturing

112,604

 

33291 - Metal Valve Manufacturing

72,774

 

31411 - Carpet and Rug Mills

72,357

 

31121 - Flour Milling and Malt Manufacturing

67,885

 

33111 - Iron and Steel Mills and Ferro-Alloy Manufacturing

57,524

 

31621 - Footwear Manufacturing

53,591

 

33531 - Electrical Equipment Manufacturing

53,200

 

31321 - Broad-Woven Fabric Mills

51,036

 

33361 - Engine, Turbine and Power Transmission Equipment Manufacturing

48,007

 

33151 - Ferrous Metal Foundries

47,020

 

33712 - Household and Institutional Furniture Manufacturing

46,966

 

32799 - All Other Non-Metallic

Mineral Product Manufacturing

46,383

 

31519 - Other Clothing Knitting Mills

42,985

31529 - Other Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing

40,645

33221 - Cutlery and Hand Tool Manufacturing

37,729

31699 - Other Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing

36,536

31142 - Fruit and Vegetable Canning, Pickling and Drying

35,858

Sub-total2,762,603

Others1,275,433

Total (All Industries)4,038,037

I want to post this part before speaking to info above.

And the source is Trade Data Online. Industry Canada

http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/tdo-dcd.nsf/eng/Home

 

 

SeekingAPolitic...

Thank You Mr Trump you going get my canadate in Mexico elected.

the setup article

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-twitter-bombs-and-...

In Mexico, “informed people are in favor” of striking a deal, said Jorge Guajardo, formerly Mexico’s ambassador to China and now a senior director at McLarty Associates. “But that doesn’t play well politically.” He added, “The mood is set in Mexico for the president to pull out, to call his negotiators back to Mexico City.”

I admit I will be happy to see these talks fail. It damage the liberals here in Canada, but boy this whole affair is killing the credility of the current market friendly leader of Mexico. Mr. Lopez Obrador is leftist populist.  I was hoping he would win in the 2012 elections but came in second.  This time this know NAFTA thing is mana from the sky.

I introduced hopefully the new leader of Mexico

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/oct/4/andres-manuel-lopez-obra...

Mr. Lopez Obrador favors a leftist approach to the economy, proposing massive spending on education, infrastructure and other economic developments to revive Mexico’s sluggish economy, which has averaged less than 1 percent growth since 1993. Like Mr. Trump, he is a skeptic of free trade and a sharp critic of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Mr. Trump wants to renegotiate.

Critics argued that his economic policies are unrealistic given Mexico’s reliance on international trade and the lack of revenue to finance Mr. Lopez Obrador’s social welfare programs.

“He’s inspired by a superficial reading of FDR’s New Deal,” said Alberto Fernandez, a political scientist at the New School. “It’s incompatible with the Mexico of today because the government doesn’t have a way of financing public programs of the magnitude AMLO proposes.”

​I wonder how many time FDR heard the line, we have dont have the money for social projects.  If there is a will then it can be accomplished.

SeekingAPolitic...

SeekingAPoliticalHome wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

Here’s a few points from my perspective. 

From what I understand, even Bombardier still believes these super high tariffs wil be shot down. Then there’s the claim from Boing that the Canadian governments unfairly subsidize to allow Bombardier to dump products.  If this is true then to what extent? And should the practice continue. 

Another tid bit is China and India markets. The fastest growing int the world. Apparently there was just a huge order with India and there is freekin huge interest from the Chinese! 

China has entered into the commercial aircraft manufacturing sector and recently released their version with bombardiers help. So the competition is getting fierce and it seems bombardier is holding their own. 

Perhaps Boing is scared Bombardier is in a better position for future growth/expansion and is pissed off US airline is helping fuel Bombardier? Obviously to some extent. 

Either way, there’s a lot of big players coming up in the world that Canadian corporations are looking to promote Canada to. US is yesterday, #2 economy and in 20 years Chinas economy will be double the US and by that time the Indian economy will be the same as US maybe bigger. It’s not the end of the world but it is the end of the old world order

Lets deal with india first.  The thing with trade is what you produce the other person must be interested in buying and more by a wide margin they can afford.   Lets see what Canada exports to India. in 2016

 11113 Code - Dry Pea and Bean Farming 1,133,881= 1 billion 133 million 881 hundreds of thousands 

21239 - Other Non-Metallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying565,383

21211 - Coal Mining448,148

32212 - Paper Mills275,628

21223 - Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc Ore Mining258,199

32211 - Pulp Mills196,318

21222 - Gold and Silver Ore Mining154,711

32518 - Other Basic Inorganic Chemical Manufacturing129,633

41811 - Recyclable Metal Wholesaler-Distributors75,540

33141 - Non-Ferrous Metal (except Aluminum) Smelting and Refining63,285

33451 - Navigational, Measuring, Medical and Control Instruments Manufacturing44,515

33331 - Commercial and Service Industry Machinery Manufacturing42,426

33399 - All Other General-Purpose Machinery Manufacturing35,460

31122 - Starch and Vegetable Fat and Oil Manufacturing34,581

32521 - Resin and Synthetic Rubber Manufacturing29,339

33641 - Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing27,305

33422 - Radio and Television Broadcasting and Wireless Communications Equipment Manufacturing23,735

33111 - Iron and Steel Mills and Ferro-Alloy Manufacturing23,628

32599 - All Other Chemical Product Manufacturing19,769

33411 - Computer and Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing19,632

33329 - Other Industrial Machinery Manufacturing18,650

33291 - Metal Valve Manufacturing18,236

32519 - Other Basic Organic Chemical Manufacturing17,479

33361 - Engine, Turbine and Power Transmission Equipment Manufacturing17,386

41819 - Other Recyclable Material Wholesaler-Distributors16,714

Sub-total3,689,580

Others293,397

Total (All Industries)3,982,978

What we import from India

32411 - Petroleum Refineries

388,874

 

33991 - Jewellery and Silverware Manufacturing

316,971

 

32541 - Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing

250,562

 

32519 - Other Basic Organic Chemical Manufacturing

228,859

 

31523 - Women's and Girls' Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing

202,544

 

31412 - Curtain and Linen Mills

181,454

 

31171 - Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging

153,208

 

31522 - Men's and Boys' Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing

117,030

 

33635 - Motor Vehicle Transmission and Power Train Parts Manufacturing

112,604

 

33291 - Metal Valve Manufacturing

72,774

 

31411 - Carpet and Rug Mills

72,357

 

31121 - Flour Milling and Malt Manufacturing

67,885

 

33111 - Iron and Steel Mills and Ferro-Alloy Manufacturing

57,524

 

31621 - Footwear Manufacturing

53,591

 

33531 - Electrical Equipment Manufacturing

53,200

 

31321 - Broad-Woven Fabric Mills

51,036

 

33361 - Engine, Turbine and Power Transmission Equipment Manufacturing

48,007

 

33151 - Ferrous Metal Foundries

47,020

 

33712 - Household and Institutional Furniture Manufacturing

46,966

 

32799 - All Other Non-Metallic

Mineral Product Manufacturing

46,383

 

31519 - Other Clothing Knitting Mills

42,985

31529 - Other Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing

40,645

33221 - Cutlery and Hand Tool Manufacturing

37,729

31699 - Other Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing

36,536

31142 - Fruit and Vegetable Canning, Pickling and Drying

35,858

Sub-total2,762,603

Others1,275,433

Total (All Industries)4,038,037

I want to post this part before speaking to info above.

And the source is Trade Data Online. Industry Canada

http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/tdo-dcd.nsf/eng/Home

 

 

India 

What catches the eye.

1.Trade is largely balanced:) in dollar terms.  India trade represents 0.8% of trade Canada was part of 2016

2.But look at we export to India and look at what India exports to Canada.  Anything curious? to me is that the most our exports are raw material or barely processed goods.  Let me explain the concept for Value Added products, for example the trade in gold, silver, jewelery between India and Canada.

Canada Exports to India Gold and Silver Ore Mining 154,711.  In 2016 we sent about 158 million to India in raw gold and silver.

India Exports to Canada Jewellery and Silverware Manufacturing 316,971. In 2016 India sent us 317 million in Jewellery and Silverware.

Lets get down to mechanics of this situation.  We Canada mine gold and silver ore and then will sell it to India.  Miners in Canada are very payed but the transaction action stops in the Canadian economy.  Now what happens in India.  For example lets say that Canada exported to India 1 oz silver which is around 31 grams.  The price silver oz is 22 to 23 dollars at present.  So Canada got 22 dollars for the oz of silver(I dont want to confuse people by introducing concepts shipping cost domestic/international).  Let stick with the oz that India owns.  To keep it simple smelting process would done in India, processing the ore to make into the refined silver so India enjoys a small profit for smelting.  Now back to 1 oz of silver, the jeweller orders the smelter for 1 oz of silver.  The jeweler than create up 2 silver rings and sell into Canadian market of jewellery at 120 dollars a piece.

Canada sells silver ore(In the example above I gave to Canada the refined price of silver, does little or no processing on the ore.  I dont know price silver ore but it world a fraction of of the price before smelting.  

Canada created some wealth mining the ore.  

India created some wealth in the refining process

India created some wealth jewellery creation setup.

As your go down this path we started with silver ore and ended with rings.  As you follow the silver being manulpated by the human brain (Engineery/design) to human hand (jewellery/refiner/miner).  Value added begins very small in mining process to designing and creating the jewellery with add lots of value.  The trick to creating wealth and jobs trying capture as much Value Added content.

But looking at the whole situation I can conclude that we (Canada) export raw (limited added value) and they export back more refined and manufactured products(middle added value) back to Canada.  Since trade is largely balanced there very little pressure on Canadian government to do anything.

I think India is behind 20 years of China in regards to its Canada trade profile.  Next I will put the China numbers.

****Keep in mind what can we sell into a China/India market and that they can afford to buy.

Rev Pesky

From SeekingAPoliticalHome:

I would counter with info I find in world bank database.  Export of GDP.  We could produce more for the domestic market that would lessen the need for the us market. 

The difference between selling to the USA, and selling to the domestic market is the difference between selling within a family, and selling to the neighbours. You can keep yourself really busy knitting socks for your kid sister, but as soon as you want something that is not produced within the family, you need outside money.

Canadians grow a lot more wheat than we could possibly consume, primarily because we have a large area of land that works very well for growing wheat. But if I want a cup of coffee in the morning, somehow I have to find someone willing to sell me the coffee, because we don't have a large area of land that works for growing coffee.

So just increasing the domestic market doesn't necessarily do anything for the country.

The trade relationship between Canada and the USA is the largest trade relationship in the world. Here's a little factoid that encapsulates how large and important it is:

The trade across Ambassador Bridge, between Windsor, Ontario and Detroit, Michigan, alone is equal to all trade between the United States and Japan.

You're not going to change that without serious effects on the economy of Canada. And as I mentioned before, while trade with Canada is important to the USA, trade with the USA is essential for Canada.

I sure agree that right now, with that bombastic asshole as president, getting along with the USA is difficult, but presidents have terms, and term limits. Our trade relationship with the USA goes on and on. 

 

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Although trade with Canada is a relatively small part of the U.S. economy, it is much more important to many border states. These states, particularly the Great Lakes states, have enough political weight that it is difficult to believe any federal government could feasibly reduce trade with Canada by more than a few percent.

SeekingAPolitic...

As I see it the exporting goods and serivces 1.  Getting foreign currency to pay for imports.  2.  I don't know the term for the idea that a country has a advantage in trade of certain services and goods so it stick to those items.  1. Totally agree you dont want a balance of payments crisis.  2.  Great you have wheat surplus, this is peanuts. 

Total of all merchandise 43,629.8 for aug 2017

Farm and fishing products [C111]2,169.8

Live animals [111]191.2

Wheat [112] 638.4

Canola [113]430.6

Fruits, nuts and vegetables [114]243.3

Other crop products [115]404.9

Other animal products [116]84.6

Fish, shellfish and other fishery products [121]176.9

AG exports are not going save the day.  They represent 5 % of what we export.  Must we be trapped exporting raw commondities.

 

There is problem with mix our exports which has been hidden by high oil prices, but exposed now.  We have for generation has surplus trade balance.  That has truned around over the last few years.  Oil collaspe, minerals and maufacturing can not longer cover imports of goods.  And in serivices we chornic defecit.  Exporting raw materials is no longer covering import of manufactured goods.  

No I don;t want take your coffee away but coffee is small change. 

So just increasing the domestic market doesn't necessarily do anything for the country.  Well it allows us as society to consume more goods.

You're not going to change that without serious effects on the economy of Canada. And as I mentioned before, while trade with Canada is important to the USA, trade with the USA is essential for Canada. 

I agree its essential but does mean mean 85% in 2000.  Or 75% can we not move to 65 % .  I am curious about your attiude, is your reluctance based on rejection of modern mercantilism, or believe one should not intervene in the market trade flows or futile to change things because geographic reality preculdes any effective action?

 

 

WWWTT

@SeekingAPoliticalHome

Ok it appears you are doing some homework and I will take your word for it because I don't have time to verify so good for you in your dilegence!

I'm only prepared to debate Aerospace industry because that's what this thread is about, not international trade in general (however there are clear obvious connections that are integral to the debate so perhaps I can not escape this fact?)

Bombardier recently did sign a sweet ass deal with India that's a huge win for Canada!!!!!! Or should I say a sweet ass SPICY deal! LOL!

https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN1C41TY-OCABS

As well there's f'n huge interest from China for Bombardier's C series Jets and I believe the turbo props as well. There is also emerging economies around the world INCLUDING African nations that show huge future promise (but for some reason, no one thinks African countries are of any potential, which I believe is blatant fucking racism!)

From an older article I read dated 2011, China plans to build 100 aeroports in the next 20 years!!! That's huge potential unseen in the rest of the world. This is attached with new laws in China requiring carriers (航空公司)to cater to local domestic flights that would use smaller single isle jets (100-150 passengers) and economical turbo prop planes. There's huge potential for Bombardier!

The intent of my contribution to this thread is to forward  that the US market isn't the future of Canadian interests. And when it comes to high tech aerospace, we shouldn't let the US dictate where Canada stands!

SeekingAPolitic...

Total of all merchandise   export Aug 2017 43,629.8      import Aug 2017 47,043.2

Farm, fishing and intermediate food products [C11]2,678.7​  1,394.0  ​Surplus

Energy products [C12]7,131.4​  2,371.5  ​Surplus

Metal ores and non-metallic minerals [C13]1,456.2​  1,153.3  Surplus

Metal and non-metallic mineral products [C14]5,022.4​  3,585.3  Surplus

Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products [C15]2,659.  3,870.8  ****deficit****

1Forestry products and building and packaging materials [C16]3,406.6​  2,056.3  Surplus

Industrial machinery, equipment and parts [C17]2,852.4​  4,531.4    ****deficit****

Electronic and electrical equipment and parts [C18]2,324.7​  5,334.0   ****deficit****

Motor vehicles and parts [C19]7,394.1​  9,332.9   ****deficit****

Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts [C21]1,854.1​  1,387.1  ​Surplus

Consumer goods [C22]5,654.4  10,122.2    ****deficit****

Special transactions trade [C23]312.7  997.5    ****deficit**** 

Other balance of payments adjustments [C24]883.1   906.9    ****deficit****

We have surplus situations in raw materials but deficits in industry products.  Some  people view this as natural to me it screams for industrial policy.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Unionist wrote:

I know this sounds naive - but until such time as there is a democratic world government, I think we should start planning to produce more of what we import (i.e. need) and less of what we export (i.e. don't need). And we should try producing and consuming locally, even after we've elected that world government.

If Canada lives or dies by its exports to the U.S. - then Canada dies. I'm not looking forward to that funeral.

If this takes a generation or two, so be it. Have we got anything more important to do over the next few decades?

Democratically elected world government? It will never happen. Countries like the US, China, and Russia will not tolerate such an incursion into their sovereignity. Even La Meute would object to that. Many other countries are corrupt democracies and out-and-out dictatorships.

It's a nice thought however. I've always thought I would make a good world President. You could run, but you couldn't hide. Maybe you'd hate me, but that would be OK so long as you feared me.