Greece #3

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epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

KenS wrote:

KenS wrote:

Calling it a ""warning shot" I think is more than a bit of an overstatement.

It's not a threat, it's a (pointless) objection that you arent being fair to me.

epaulo13 wrote:
..and then again maybe not.

Alexis Tsipras reshuffles cabinet to get rid of bailout dissidents 

I still say there are no threats. Expecting Tsipras to govern with the Left Platform in Cabinet, or Varoufakis for that matter, is kind of silly.

Tsipras knows the limits to his power. And he could not get away with expelling MPs from the party- or anything like that.

..i understand what your saying ken but i think there is more going on. internal party politics can get ruthless.

Lafazanis was sacked from his Ministerial post after voting against the bailout deal in parliament. However, Lafazanis told Agora that he refuses to leave his position as a SYRIZA MP and vowed to fight for changing the party line and resisting new Memoranda.

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/07/18/greeces-former-energy-ministe...

Pondering

I think Tsipras may be smarter than people think.

In hindsight it is clear that it was always Germany's intent to force Greece out of the Euro at least from when Tsipras won the election. Germany could not allow a leftist government to succeed in reducing austerity even a little. If that were to happen others would follow. They didn't want to wear it, they wanted to force Tsipras to take Greece out of the euro. Even if that meant they didn't get a cent back Greece would be blamed not Germany.

http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2015/07/exclusive-yanis-varouf...

His conclusion was succinct. “We were set up.”

...

If Schäuble was the unrelenting enforcer, the German chancellor Angela Merkel presented a different face. While Varoufakis never dealt with her, he said, “From my understanding, she was very different.  She tried to placate the Prime Minister [Tsipras] – she said ‘We’ll find a solution, don’t worry about it, I won’t let anything awful happen, just do your homework and work with the institutions, work with the Troika; there can be no dead end here.’”

The divide seems to have been brief, and perhaps even deliberate. Varoufakis thinks that Merkel and Schäuble’s control over the Eurogroup is absolute, and that the group itself is beyond the law.

Obama spoke with Tsipras before the weekend of the final negotiations, within a day or two the IMF report came out stating that Greeces debts had to be restructured and they couldn't pay it all back so the IMF would not endorse the deal. I suspect Obama either told Tsipras the IMF wouldn't go for it or hinted at it. Why else would he call?

I don't think Germany was expecting the IMF to rebel. I read somewhere that the IMF only holds 10% of the debt.

So, Germany offered an even more punative deal than that which the people had rejected in the referendum. They thought they were giving Tsipras an offer he couldn't possibly accept. Then Germany would throw up their hands and say "we tried" and kick them out of the euro for breaking rules for which their had to be consequences or they wouldn't be obeyed. No other country would try to rebel.

Tsipras didn't give them the cover they wanted. He accepted the humiliating deal to force Germany to wear the responsibility of destroying Greece's economy and forcing them out of the euro.

What was the alternative at this point? Say no? Then what? The economy would be destroyed anyway and he would be blamed for taking Greece out of the euro against the wishes of the citizens.

This way the IMF is at loggerheads with Germany not Greece. The IMF is saying that the five year plan was a failure and Greece needs relief to recover. Germany's refusal to cooperate can only be understood as a deliberate destruction of the Greek economy rather than an attempt to negotiate repayment of the debt.

The rest of Europe is now aware that the Euro is a German currency and they set monetary policy.

 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
They thought they were giving Tsipras an offer he couldn't possibly accept. Then Germany would throw up their hands and say "we tried" and kick them out of the euro for breaking rules for which their had to be consequences or they wouldn't be obeyed. No other country would try to rebel.

This was Greece's third bailout.  I don't believe any EU rules specifiy any country's entitlement to a third bailout, so Germany could have pushed them off the gangplank long ago.  And if you're thinking "yes, but then they'd have had to take the blame!" I'm not sure how that differs from now, when we're talking about them being to blame.

This trope of "Angela Merkel needs to humiliate Greece to set an example for any other country that gets too progressive" is certainly a popular one though.  She's like the Evil Stepmother, minus any visible warts.  Why can't she just keep getting out the chequebook?

josh

Pondering wrote:

I think Tsipras may be smarter than people think.

In hindsight it is clear that it was always Germany's intent to force Greece out of the Euro at least from when Tsipras won the election. Germany could not allow a leftist government to succeed in reducing austerity even a little. If that were to happen others would follow. They didn't want to wear it, they wanted to force Tsipras to take Greece out of the euro. Even if that meant they didn't get a cent back Greece would be blamed not Germany.

http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2015/07/exclusive-yanis-varouf...

His conclusion was succinct. “We were set up.”

...

If Schäuble was the unrelenting enforcer, the German chancellor Angela Merkel presented a different face. While Varoufakis never dealt with her, he said, “From my understanding, she was very different.  She tried to placate the Prime Minister [Tsipras] – she said ‘We’ll find a solution, don’t worry about it, I won’t let anything awful happen, just do your homework and work with the institutions, work with the Troika; there can be no dead end here.’”

The divide seems to have been brief, and perhaps even deliberate. Varoufakis thinks that Merkel and Schäuble’s control over the Eurogroup is absolute, and that the group itself is beyond the law.

Obama spoke with Tsipras before the weekend of the final negotiations, within a day or two the IMF report came out stating that Greeces debts had to be restructured and they couldn't pay it all back so the IMF would not endorse the deal. I suspect Obama either told Tsipras the IMF wouldn't go for it or hinted at it. Why else would he call?

I don't think Germany was expecting the IMF to rebel. I read somewhere that the IMF only holds 10% of the debt.

So, Germany offered an even more punative deal than that which the people had rejected in the referendum. They thought they were giving Tsipras an offer he couldn't possibly accept. Then Germany would throw up their hands and say "we tried" and kick them out of the euro for breaking rules for which their had to be consequences or they wouldn't be obeyed. No other country would try to rebel.

Tsipras didn't give them the cover they wanted. He accepted the humiliating deal to force Germany to wear the responsibility of destroying Greece's economy and forcing them out of the euro.

What was the alternative at this point? Say no? Then what? The economy would be destroyed anyway and he would be blamed for taking Greece out of the euro against the wishes of the citizens.

This way the IMF is at loggerheads with Germany not Greece. The IMF is saying that the five year plan was a failure and Greece needs relief to recover. Germany's refusal to cooperate can only be understood as a deliberate destruction of the Greek economy rather than an attempt to negotiate repayment of the debt.

The rest of Europe is now aware that the Euro is a German currency and they set monetary policy.

 

Wow. Did you get dizzy from that spin?

Pondering

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
They thought they were giving Tsipras an offer he couldn't possibly accept. Then Germany would throw up their hands and say "we tried" and kick them out of the euro for breaking rules for which their had to be consequences or they wouldn't be obeyed. No other country would try to rebel.

This was Greece's third bailout.  I don't believe any EU rules specifiy any country's entitlement to a third bailout, so Germany could have pushed them off the gangplank long ago.  And if you're thinking "yes, but then they'd have had to take the blame!" I'm not sure how that differs from now, when we're talking about them being to blame.

This trope of "Angela Merkel needs to humiliate Greece to set an example for any other country that gets too progressive" is certainly a popular one though.  She's like the Evil Stepmother, minus any visible warts.  Why can't she just keep getting out the chequebook?

So you disagree with the IMF? You think this deal makes it more likely that Germany will collect on the debt?

It doesn't differ from now, because Tsipras refused to take the bait. He accepted the deal. Now the stand-off is between Germany and the IMF backed by France.

Pondering

josh wrote:

Wow. Did you get dizzy from that spin?

So you think what? That Germany wants this deal to succeed and just doesn't understand that Greece can't pay their debt under these conditions?

Tsipras is just a jerk that decided to sell out Greece?

josh

Pondering wrote:

josh wrote:

Wow. Did you get dizzy from that spin?

So you think what? That Germany wants this deal to succeed and just doesn't understand that Greece can't pay their debt under these conditions?

Tsipras is just a jerk that decided to sell out Greece?

The positive way to look at it is that Tsipras was incompetent and ended up leaving himself no alternative but to cave.

NDPP

Greece, Neoliberalism and Politics by Other Means

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/07/17/greece-neoliberalism-and-politics...

"...The contrived illusion that the Greek people owe any debt to the Troika is politics - it is imperialism waged under cover of 'economics.' The Greeks borrowed money and now they must pay it back goes the logic, never mind that the Greek people exist wholly apart from 'the Greeks' who borrowed the money.

What more historical a process might one need to begin to gain ontological clarity?"

 

German Parliament Supports Attacks on Greek Workers

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/07/18/pers-j18.html

"...The wretched capitulation of Tsipras and Syriza underscores the fact that so-called 'left' parties and organisations that support capitalism are incapable of defending past social or democratic gains. The events in Greece confirm the Marxist insight that it is impossible to fight imperialist oppression without fighting for the overthrow of imperialism's fifth column at home..."

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..an important analysis by ali

The World Today - GREECE: A PEOPLE BETRAYED

This week Tariq Ali talks about the fast-moving events surrounding the Greek political crisis; the democratic referendum, and how the Greek leaders betrayed hope and surrendered as EU celebrated its kill.

Doug Woodard

How Goldman Sachs Profited from the Greek Debt Crisis:

http://www.thenation.com/article/goldmans-greek-gambit/

 

Pondering

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/weekend-roundup-75_b_782069...

This week the geopolitical balance changed decisively. As Margaret Thatcher warned long ago, a German Europe, not a Europeanized Germany, would one day be the dominant reality on the continent. The tough terms of the latest Greek bailout and the relegation of France to a junior partner in those negotiations confirm her prescience....

The French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy makes the political case for Greece remaining in Europe. Mauro Guillén contrasts the French desperation for the political unity of Europe with Germany's disciplined economic calculus. European Parliament President Martin Schulz and German Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel write that, as Social Democrats, they continue to see France as the indispensable partner with Germany in moving Europe forward. Writing from Athens, HuffPost Greece Editor-in-Chief Nikos Agouros argues that the ideological notion of the political autonomy of the modern state within the global market economy has proven a disastrous illusion despite the radical efforts of Syriza. Colleague Pavlos Tsimas asks what would have happened if Greece had voted "yes." Daniel Marans describes how Germany beat Greece at "Liar's Poker." Nobel laureate Ed Phelps doubts that even debt relief can save the Greek economy without uprooting clientelism and boosting productivity.

josh
NDPP

Alexis Tsipras and Russia - Beware the Greek Bearing Gifts

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/alexis-tsipras-and-russia-beware-g...

"...The simple truth is that the Greek political class - of which it is now clear Tsipras and Syriza are part - are totally committed to the European project and are incapable of seeing a solution outside it, however terrible the cost.

In some ways the nature of the debate about the euro in Greece is like the debate that took place in Ukraine when the Association Agreement with the EU was being discussed. No one in Ukraine ever said - or told the Ukrainian people - that membership in the EU was not on offer, while membership in the Eurasian Union was.

Until Greece's political class drops these blindly pro-EU attitudes (what the independent writer Anatoly Karlin has called a 'cargo cult') or is itself replaced - the prospect of closer ties with Russia will remain ephemeral. In the meantime it is now a certainty that a pipeline deal with Gazprom touted by Energy Minister Lafazanis is dead.

It was always essentially his project and since he is known to oppose the deal Tsipras has just concluded in Brussels his days in the government are numbered. Besides, with Greece now essentially under Merkel's thumb, she will never let it happen. As is their way, the Russians have said nothing. They will not however forget..."

 

3 Week Bank Shutdown Cost Greek Economy 3 B EUR. - Report

http://www.rt.com/business/310183-athens-economy-banks-shut/

"The three week closure of Greek banks, with ATM withdrawals limited to 60 EUR. a day, has cost the country's economy $3.3 billion, which excludes lost tourism revenue, according to a report."

Doug Woodard
Doug Woodard

Bank IT, Grexit, and Systemic Risk:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/07/bank-it-grexit-and-systemic-risk

I'm a little sceptical but it's an interesting take on things.

NDPP

Statement of the Central Committee of the KKE on the New Agreement-Memorandum

http://inter.kke.gr/en/articles/STATEMENT-OF-THE-CENTRAL-COMMITTEE-OF-TH...

"...SYRIZA consciously exploited the people's desire for the consequences of the 2 memoranda to be abolished, which would mean at least a recovery of the losses of the popular strata. It exploited the visions and dreams of leftwing people and radicals who longed for a 'left-wing' 'pro-people' government...

It used popular demagoguery, as well as its public commitment to big capital that it will support the recovery of its profitability and that it will restrict the regrouping and recovery of the labour-people's movement. It won the toleration and even support of the basic core of the bourgeois class in Greece, as well as of foreign imperialist centres, like the USA.

These alliances with the USA, France, Italy, which the government is proud of, are in no way a 'shield' for the people's interests. In reality these are 'dead weights' that drag the working class popular strata into the dangerous and sharpening confrontation amongst the imperialists.

The KKE from the beginning argued and demonstrated that SYRIZA did not want and was not able to prepare the people for the confrontation against the memoranda and the monopolies, because it has no orientation for resistance and conflict. On the contrary, it did what it could to keep the people passive so that they would sit and wait to cast their 'protest vote' in the elections. It deceived the people that it could pave the way for pro people changes inside the predatory alliance of the EU..."

josh

Jerome Roos ‏@JeromeRoos ·

Today #Greece raised VAT on food from 13% to 23%, making the hungry, poor & unemployed pay even more for sustenance just to service the debt

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Today #Greece raised VAT on food from 13% to 23%

In the interest of accuracy, it's not on all food, it's on some food -- mostly pre-prepared food and restaurant food.

NDPP

Greece is Selling State Assets

https://youtu.be/K6Bxlkxq7yw

The vampires descend...

"Johnny Depp has already bought a small island, Strogilo..."

http://hollywood.greekreporter.com/2015/07/16/johnny-depp-buys-greek-isl...

 

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

The Solution is (after all) in our hands

quote:

What are the duties of a bottom up movement in the Memorandum years though, because well said dear author, but what now?

First of all, we fight the measures. Yes, through the beaten track, that is strikes, marches, riots, etc. but through a new perspective. We should think of new ways. No more Syntagma Sq trap. If our mobilisation is unpredictable, it would be more effective and difficult to suppress. Neighbourhood gatherings, people’s assembly, people from the country coming into towns and so much more that the author cannot think of.An “attack” of such a magnitude will be difficult to deal with.
 
Secondly, the “clash” or the “revolution” or whatever you want to name it, would still mean nothing, if we don’t provide for the next day. Ensure that there is bread, milk and petrol.Be prepared for the battle; strengthen self-organised cooperatives; Bottom-up co-ordination and management of the agricultural production in order to become self-sufficient; self -organised “banks” and “insurance bodies”.
 
Thirdly, we should create counter-structures in all operating levels, through open democracy, without hierarchy and bureaucracy
. In the future we want to stop paying taxes to the state; instead, the communities will collect this amount of money and dispose it in support of social needs. However utopian it may sound, even schools and hospitals could work this way.
 
Of course, I don’t believe I have the magic recipe. I am just brainstorming. My point is that no Left government can do the great productive reconstruction and restart the economy; we need to do it ourselves by self-organising the land and the factories.

If no Left government can redistribute wealth, we should to do it by confiscating businesses, when they don’t pay our salaries, and operate them ourselves.
 
If the Left cannot save us, let us save ourselves! If you can’t do it, we can. The solution is after all in our hands.

NDPP

Ukraine's PM 'Yats': 'Greece Should 'Emulate Ukrainian Success Story'

https://youtu.be/eJHFjFcpTDY

LOL!

josh

Civil war and economic collapse? They already have one, why would they want the other? Besides, Greece was on the other side in WWII.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
"Johnny Depp has already bought a small island, Strogilo..."

Evidently the island was privately owned.

Quote:
The island was at one time inhabited by a member of the family of the current owners. Behind the long beach there are the ruins of an old house and some enclosures used for goats. This makes it an ideal place to build a new house.

Did folk really think that mere days after coming to a very provisional agreement, Greece was suddenly holding an unannounced yard sale of islands, and that Johnny Depp made an impulse purchase?

josh

It was July 23, 1967 when the Beatles traveled to Greece and almost bought a Greek Island. The Beatles were at the peak of their acid-dropping, weed-smoking phase and were arguably at their creative peak too.

In his autobiography, Paul McCartney says they arrived to Greece on a mission to buy an island and turn it into a hippie commune where nobody would interfere with their lifestyle.

http://www.pappaspost.com/when-the-beatles-almost-bought-a-greek-island/

They also took heat because there was a military coup in Greece a couple of months earlier.

NDPP

Your Piece of Greece: Warren Buffett Reportedly Buys Greek Island

http://sptnkne.ws/3Rh

"American business magnate, one of the world's most successful investors, Warren Buffet has reportedly bought the Greek island of Aglos Thomas for 15 mn euro, according to the website of the Greek newspaper Proto Thema and become yet another celebrity with his own piece of Greece.

According to Proto Thema Warren Buffett believes that there are plenty of opportunities in Greece at the moment. Dozens of islands are currently up for sale in Greece."

 

Keiser Report: Two Faced Greek Govt

https://youtu.be/lkMzkqpirCw

"In this episode, Max and Stacy discuss Greek prime ministers bearing referendums as privatization schemes move full steam ahead as billionaires and celebrities begin buying up Greek islands on the cheap..."

iyraste1313

If the Left cannot save us, let us save ourselves! If you can’t do it, we can. The solution is after all in our hands....

...thanks for this! and with the government weakened to not interfere? It's a good time to prepare alternatives from the bottom up.....and only then can a party be reestablished to take control based on a program from the community up!

But somehow legally controlled from the bottom!

bekayne

josh wrote:

It was July 23, 1967 when the Beatles traveled to Greece and almost bought a Greek Island. The Beatles were at the peak of their acid-dropping, weed-smoking phase and were arguably at their creative peak too.

In his autobiography, Paul McCartney says they arrived to Greece on a mission to buy an island and turn it into a hippie commune where nobody would interfere with their lifestyle.

http://www.pappaspost.com/when-the-beatles-almost-bought-a-greek-island/

They also took heat because there was a military coup in Greece a couple of months earlier.

Magic Alex!

NDPP

Nothing new for brit trash to go off stealing other people's land of course..

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Huh. Aren't "buying something" and "stealing something" pretty much opposites?

Brachina

NDPP wrote:

Nothing new for brit trash to go off stealing other people's land of course..

 That's a bigoted thing to say, its only a minority of Brits that do that, most are nice folks.

NDPP

Frequently they're not.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I see.  Can you flesh that out?  Use the Beatles as the example.  How were they intending to "steal" anything?

NDPP

Definitely not up to disparaging The Beatles or Maharishi just now Magoo. So we'll give the Fab 4 a pass and perhaps wait and see who buys Piraeus instead eh?

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Definitely not up to disparaging The Beatles or Maharishi just now Magoo.

I guess a lot can change in just under four hours.

NDPP

Yes even less. And I should have added 'any more'..

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Well, do tell us when you're again in the mood.  Because I'm still really curious how The Beatles were just "Brit trash" who were "stealing other people's land".

JKR

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
"Johnny Depp has already bought a small island, Strogilo..."

Evidently the island was privately owned.

Quote:
The island was at one time inhabited by a member of the family of the current owners. Behind the long beach there are the ruins of an old house and some enclosures used for goats. This makes it an ideal place to build a new house.

Did folk really think that mere days after coming to a very provisional agreement, Greece was suddenly holding an unannounced yard sale of islands, and that Johnny Depp made an impulse purchase?

Oh yeah, he's a pirate of the Caribbean, not a pirate of the Aegean!

NDPP

Meanwhile this:

The Trail of the Troika (doco)

https://youtu.be/BLB3uu1IXM0

JKR

NDPP wrote:

Definitely not up to disparaging The Beatles or Maharishi just now Magoo.

The mantra I received from Maharishi's TM movement was "magoo!"

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

The good news:  it does bring inner peace.

The bad news:  you have to say it, like, a million times.

Quote:
Meanwhile this

Meanwhile, what about those "Brit trash" Beatles and their theft?

bekayne

The Beatles, the Maharishi, Magoo. On a Greek island. That would've been the best Mr. Magoo cartoon ever!

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Mr. Magoo mistakes a bong for a carafe of water and hilarity ensues.  With baklava!

JKR

bekayne wrote:

The Beatles, the Maharishi, Magoo. On a Greek island. That would've been the best Mr. Magoo cartoon ever!

CBS actually had a tv sytcom based on that idea with Mr. Magoo/Jim Bakus called Gilligan's Island. Bob Denver played Gilligan/Maharishi.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

NDPP wrote:

Meanwhile this:

The Trail of the Troika (doco)

https://youtu.be/BLB3uu1IXM0

..txs ndpp. good information

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Who was the Maharishi?  DO NOT say "the Professor".

ed'd to add:

Oops.  So Gilligan was the Maharishi?  Well, I always did suspect him of smoking the roofs of the huts.

JKR

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Who was the Maharishi?  DO NOT say "the Professor".

ed'd to add:

Oops.  So Gilligan was the Maharishi?  Well, I always did suspect him of smoking the roofs of the huts.

Gilligan or the Maharishi?

NDPP

SYRIZA's Thessaloniki Programme vs Euro-Troika Austerity

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&I...

Dimitri Lascaris interviews Dr Strathis Kourelakis, leading member of the Left Platform of SYRIZA, who defends the original mandate for national reconstruction given to SYRIZA.

'The government and Tsipras have absolutely no political legitimacy for doing what they have done. They are violating the popular mandate. They are violating the mandate of the referendum of July in the most blatant way - the 'No' has become the 'Yes'. It is a complete reversal of all our commitments and all our values."

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Thousands Protest As Greek Parliament Approves Second Round of Austerity Measures

Demonstrators tell TRNN's Dimitri Lascaris why they oppose reforms demanded by Greece's creditors and why they support leaving the Eurozone.

josh

NDPP wrote:

SYRIZA's Thessaloniki Programme vs Euro-Troika Austerity

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&I...

Dimitri Lascaris interviews Dr Strathis Kourelakis, leading member of the Left Platform of SYRIZA, who defends the original mandate for national reconstruction given to SYRIZA.

'The government and Tsipras have absolutely no political legitimacy for doing what they have done. They are violating the popular mandate. They are violating the mandate of the referendum of July in the most blatant way - the 'No' has become the 'Yes'. It is a complete reversal of all our commitments and all our values."

Here's a good article from Kouvelakis, arguing that Syriza has not only rejected the fight against neo-liberalism, but politics itself.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/07/greece-debt-euro-grexit-kouvelakis/

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

#TalkReal in Athens: Democracy Rising - Syriza and Europe

After months of negotiations Greece reaches a bad agreement with Eurozone partners. What will happen now? Can Greece be a catalyst for a wider European mobilisation? With Costas Douzinas, Margarita Tsomou, Srecko Horvat, Jerome Roos, hosts Lorenzo Marsili...

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