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Syndicate
The superrich can't afford actual military occupations anymore. Vietnam was the first indication of that. And so now they want to be able to conquer countries with a Trojan horse named marauding international capital. I think the Greeks saw it coming, though.
Trying to understand SYRIZA, by Paul Mason
This is a useful backgrounder to SYRIZA. An excerpt:
Greece is set to go to the polls again after days of coalition talks failed to produce agreement on a new government, says the leader of the Socialist Pasok party, Evangelos Venizelos.
A final round of talks on Tuesday morning broke up without a deal.
In elections on 6 May, a majority of Greek voters backed parties opposed to austerity plans demanded by the EU and IMF in return for two bailouts.
The Greek president will appoint a caretaker government on Wednesday.
President Karolos Papoulias will meet all political leaders at 13:00 (10:00 GMT) on Wednesday to put in place an interim government until the new vote, which is expected to take place on 10 or 17 June.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18076757Half of Greek Cops Go Ultra-Nationalist At Elections
http://rt.com/news/greek-police-vote-nazis-350/
"More than half of all police officers in Greece voted for the far-right ultra nationalist party Golden Dawn - described by many as neo-Nazi - in the elections on May 6. This gave them a record 7 percent of the vote, securing 21 seats in parliament. It campaigned heavily on an anti-immigrant platform using the slogan 'So we can rid this land of filth'. The unprecedented rise of the far right has already caused alarm in the country.."
Brian Topp:
Understanding the crisis in Greece
This particular piece is running only in his Rabble blog, not also in the Globe.
Merkel: Sacrifices had to be made
1st Prize for Understatement:
The only question is WHEN the banks collapse, and what precisely happens after.
Greeks will take everything they can get out of the banks.
1.] They dont want anything in the banks when they collapse [even if you get your money, there is a delay].
2.] Looking slightly further down the road.... they want cash [or deposits outside Greece] for when Greece pulls out or is ejected from the euro.
So, "panic" does not apply to something that is totally predictable.
This also sets in motion the spin-off of capital flight across Southern Europe. Regular folks do not have large amounts in financial institutions. Other than the paranoid among them, they'll wait to get cash and/or move their euros out of the country. But people with any means know that if [when] the crisis continues, there will be currency controls. So they start moving now when the controls are still relaxed.
Greece will hold elections on June 17, and a court official will be appointed to head the interim government until then, Greek state television reported Wednesday.
Council of State head Panagiotis Pikramenos is to be named interim prime minister.
Communist Party leader Aleka Papariga said party leaders agreed that the interim government won't be able to make any internationally binding decisions. She spoke after a meeting of leaders convened by President Karolos Papoulias.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/05/16/greece-euro-crisis.html
Not saying we're going to see some kind of far-right coup in Greece, I really, really don't think Nazis can take power in any western country.
But that can't be good.
I agree not good - sounds distinctly nasty. And shows you where the fascist palookas of the police are at..The knuckleheads think they know which side their bread is buttered on..
If you were in Greece and had some money in the bank, would you be pulling your euros out now?
the polls released this week, which you can see at this link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Greek_legislative_election
seem to show Golden Dawn(it's Greek abbreviation is XA)losing siginficant support, at the same time the prospects of a SYRIZA-led independent Left coalition coming to power are increasing dramatically. If this is correct, and if the claim that there is heavy police support for Golden Dawn, there's at least the possibility of a right-wing coup(which would require the army to get out of the barracks again, but this is the sort of situation in which armies like that TEND to do such things)between now and the election.
You'd have to wonder if those cops would be able to tolerate the idea of their new political heroes being voted out of parliament almost as soon as they were voted in, especially if, on the same day, you had the people who the cops have been teargassing essentially pulling off an electoral revolution.
I really, really HOPE it doesn't go down like this, but this is the sort of situation in which a repeat of 1967 is a real possibility.
Greece and the Global Crisis of Capitalism
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/may2012/pers-m17.shtml
"Global financial institutions have a $536 billion exposure to Greek debt, but the Institute of International Finance estimates the true global cost of a Greek exit to be closer to $1.2 trillion, entailing 'killer' losses. Wirtschaft Woche magazine says an exit would cost eurozone governments alone $300 Billion. More importantly, a Greek exit will inevitably hasten the collapse of much bigger economies that are teetering on the brink such as Spain, Portugal or Italy.."
How much more valuable can home sweet home be?
Overall I'm liking this solution the most. The government could start printing its own currency again, and Greeks could tell creditors they aren't paying. The country could be back to work on Monday. It could be the start of a trend.
As I see it, Greece has a choice. The can accept the austerity budget or they can STFU, default on its debts, get booted from the Euro and take the consequences. Honestly, the Greek people seem to want the moon on a stick. YOU racked up the debt. YOU defrauded your way into the Eurozone. YOU were happy to have a culture that turned a blind eye to rampant tax evasion (and not just by the rich). YOU were happy to go on an unsustainable spending spree once you'd been admitted to the Eurozone.
Don't want the austerity package? Fine. Walk away and don't expect any other country to bail you out for your folly. You had a good run and now you've been found out. Just remember, YOU DID THIS.
Greece isn't buying into the austerity nonsense, which is strangling their country, as well as many, many other countries, so yes of course according the rich, who hold the bonds, Greeks are bad people. Even Merkel and Obama are saying slow down the austerity. Go figure!
"You had a good run and now you've been FOUND OUT"????
For the love of Goddess, abnormal...
The Greek people didn't "defraud (their)way into the Eurozone"-THE GREEK GOVERNMENT DID THAT.
It was the bad books kept by the ND government(mainly hiding the massive cost overruns of the Athens Olympics)combined by massive tax cheating, especially by the rich (and a badly underfunded tax collection agency)that caused the problem. You can't hold the workers, the pensioners and the poor. You can't impose collective punishment on an entire country for the shady financial dealings of its rulers.
Also, it's not as if you've been funding the Greek social welfare system entirely out of your own pocket, so how can you feel so bloody entitled to pass collective sentence like that?
The economic-royalist arrogance reflected in your post is what is driving people all over Europe, the rest of the world(and, coming soon, perhaps, North America)closer and closer to revolution. Are you really sure you want to associate yourself with people who are the moral equivalent of the residents of "The Capitol" in THE HUNGER GAMES? Trust me, they wouldn't even let you try on one of those wigs, buddy.
What did Greeksbuy with their spending spree? They printed a lot of IOU's which was not money spent by Greeks but which were given to Euro banks and the one percent. Goldman Sachs and other banks were the ones who sold them debt fraudulently and without ensuring the Greeks could even pay it back. In America it's called fraudulent conveyance. In Europe it's not legal since formation of the ECB.
Greeks don't have to pay if they don't want to. They weren't allowed to have a referendum on bailing out the banks because the bankers and finance industry know that oligarchy would lose out to democracy.
Greece: New Elections After Governmental Failure - by Christos Kefalis
http://dissidentvoice.org/2012/05/greece-new-elections-after-governmenta...
"The establishment of a left government in Greece could be the sign for a broader radicalization in other European countries as well. The fear with which the ruling classes react to this prospect makes clear it is a valid prospect, which may not lead to a direct overthrow of capitalism, but will move a big step forward.
If however, the government of the left fails to materialize or be followed properly, then all kinds of dangers from the ultra-right and the right will become intensified.."
Absolutely. They have a choice. Accept an externally imposed austerity package or accept austerity as result of being booted from the Euro. The second option is going to be far worse.
No, being booted from the Euro will force Greece to use her own currency. Once this happens, she will have more control over monetary policy and will have more options to pull out of this mess.
The whole idea of the Euro is ridiculous anyways. There are far too many differences in culture, politics, and economics for a unified Europe to work anyways. This is not the first time it's been tried. It's been tried by the Romans, by Napolean, and by Hitler. Each time it failed miserably, and this current go around will be no different. If the EU project doesn't fail outright, it will certainly be constrained.
The Real Deal : George Galloway (and vid)
http://presstv.com/Program/241135.html
Galloway discusses Europe, austerity and Greece
Greece Reflects Growing Economic Turmoil - by Stephen Lendman
http://warisacrime.org/content/greece-reflects-growing-economic-turmoil
"Straightjacket Eurozone rules trap 17 dissimilar countries. Greece proved most vulnerable. It's cratering under imosed austerity. Expect hard times to get harder unless public rage forces revolutionary change. That's a bridge not yet crossed..."
I know austerity isn't working out too well for Greece; but defaulting on all of thier sovereign debt, abandoning the Euro, introducing the drachma isn't a solution either.
For the world, it's a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, scaled up a little:
Greek bonds instantly hit zero, indeed, all assets any Euro bank carries is now set at about 1/3 it's value and falling. Overleveraged banks (and there are far to many of them) become insolvent, economic confidence tanks, Italian and Spanish soverign yields skyrocket, and Europe (and possibly the rest of the world) is faced with either: 1) Spending trillions of taxpayer dollars to, yet again, bailout these insolvent banks or 2) Letting these banks go under, finding that banks holding assets in these other banks are now ALSO insolvent, and then that banks will no longer lend to other banks and buisnesses, and then that scores of buisnesses fail and GDP crashes and unemployment skyrockets, and then and only then, spending more trillions of taxpayer money bailing out the banks to save the financial system.
Greece, meanwhile is so, so much worse off:
The drachma devalues to a level of 2:1 to make it's exports viable. Virtually every single bank becomes completely inviable as goes under as the value of the government bonds it holds hits zero. The Greek government is forced to print scores of drachmas and devalue its currency further to simply allow personal deposits and a banking system to simply exist in the country. This causes the drachma to devalue even further to about 4:1. Unemployment might go down, yes Greece's manufacturing sector boots up, but everyone's bank accounts and paycheques have been slashed by 70-80%. To put this in perspective, try budgeting for yourself when gas is $4.00/litre, milk is $20.00/gallon, a computer is $5000 and that Audi you've been eyeing is now the price of a Ferrari.
Meanwhile, with the recent mini-bank run and increased fears over the idea of the stuff I wrote out above (again, most Greeks recognize going to the drachma is not a good idea) the pro-austerity parties have closed the gap.
Last two polls (May 17):
NDs (pro-austerity conservatives) 19.5 to 23.1%
SYRIZA ("radical left") 21 to 22%
PASOK (pro-austerity social democrats) 13.2 to 14%
Independent Greeks (anti-austerity nationalist conservatives) 7.2 to 7.5%
Democratic Left (SYRIZA and PASOK dissidents) 5.5% to 5.6%
KKE (communists) 5.1 to 5.3%
XA (fascists) 4.3% to 5.5%
No other party over 3% threshold
Scenario 1: NDs 123, SYRIZA 66, PASOK 41.
Pro-austerity coalition: 163 seats (13 seat majority)
Scenario 2: SYRIZA 119, NDs 60, PASOK 43, Ind Greeks 24, KKE 17, Dem. Left 17, KKE 17
SYRIZA+KKE+Dem. Left = 153 seats (3 seat majority)
The Greek banks are only held 'slvent' artificially anyway- even if there is no default and they stay with the euro.
As far as the banks and the financial system goes, there is little difference: euro or drachma, default or not.
No question that the short term with default, exit and drachma is going to be worse going. But the doom and gloom that it never stabilizes is just doom and gloom. There is a more predicatble end to it than there is with the endless agony of trying to stay in the euro.
The only way Greeks would be better off with the euro is if SYRIZA and partners can negotiate that default be accepted, allowing Greece to ease off on the austerity measures some, stay in the euro, and the fiscal rules on everyone for staying in the eurozone go out the door.
I can't see that is remotely possible- though it is what hardball negotiators will be looking for. Germany can afford to buy social peace in Greece [though I cant see Merkel and the CDU surving that]. But then Italy and Spain are next. And that just is not possible.
I think the new government's strategy will be hardball to get everything-back way off on austerity, while keeping the euro. But they will be able to do that because they are ready for what they are more likely to get: "we tried, but it looks like we're on our own."
We cross-posted.
Which is why the left does not advocate ditching the euro. And I think they will make a sincere effort to get everything, but... [as noted above]. I suspect that most Greeks also understand this basic strategy, even if it is never explicitly articulated by a party.
Temporary voter shifts aside, the pro-austerity parties are never going to get a majority. And with the 50 seat bonus, if SYRIZA comes in first, thats it. They might even be in the drivers seat if they end up a shade behind ND, just because of the continuing stalemate. They only need a mandate to play hardball (and chicken). Greeks may not have complete confidence in that, but they are not going to give the mandate back to pro-austerity forces ( who have to glue themselves together). I think that slim majority by the pro-austerity forces is unlikely. But even if they get it, they wont have a mandate, and they may continue to not agree to try.
How did austerity work for Latin Americans since the 1980's?
The banks have no power to enforce anything. They have the power to bribe politicians, though.
There is a third choice - halt or drasticly slow austerity, help Greece crack down on tax evaders, write down a big chunk ... say 65% ... of Greece's sovereign debt, and figure out some way to get that country to actually start producing s**t.