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Latest USA polling results

NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

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NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008
New Gallup Poll: Tea Party Less Popular than Russia, Communist China

 

The poll found that, surprise!, 70% of Teabaggers are conservatives, which means the 43% of the movement's so-called "independents" are white men voters who pull the lever for the GOP, but don't want to call themselves Republicans after George W. Bush's pooch-screwing and with the cast of clowns currently running the party.

What's interesting, however, is that only 37% of Americans view Teabaggery favorably.

Translation: the Teabaggers are really unpopular.

By comparison, President Obama's favorability number is nearly 20 points higher at 55% - while Russia and China come in at 47% and 42% respectively.

The good news for the Teabaggers is they are still slightly more popular than Saudi Arabia (35%) and the Quitter (36.8%).

 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Listening to the pundits today it appears to have been a good week for Obama.

Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_S...


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Doug Woodard
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Joined: Mar 30 2005

NorthReport wrote:

Obama starting to run away with 2012 presidential race as he widens his lead to 7% over Romney 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-morning-plum-is-romney-in-real-trouble/2012/08/10/5323af04-e2ce-11e1-98e7-89d659f9c106_blog.html?hpid=z2

 

We should rememeber the wise words of Comrade Stalin:

"Those who cast the votes decide nothing.

Those who count the votes decide everything."

As experience has shown, they are especially applicable to the United States.

 

 

 

 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

There appears to be quite a turnaround in the polls without Romney now taking a 4% lead over Obama

Angus-Reid / Jul / Aug / Change

Obama / 47% / 45% / Down 2%

Romney / 47% / 49% / Up 2%

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/46291/romney-gains-obama-drops-in-united...

 

 


howeird beale
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Joined: Jan 13 2011

Online polls. Really? How many seniors, who vote disproportionate to their numbers did it reach? Ohhh... its "weighted" so the three seniors it reached are counted as twenty people each.


Bec.De.Corbin
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Joined: Mar 17 2010

Blaaah, polls are like poop... depending on what you put into it is what it's going to smell and look like in the end.

Who the fuck changes thier mind on who to vote for based on a poll?


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

3 of the last 5 polls are showing Romney ahead, and these polls results are primarily before Romney added Ryan to the GOP ticket.

And don't think for one second if the GOP wins it will not have a detrimental effect on working people in Canada. 

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Intrade

 

Obama re-elected Pres in 2012 - 57.0%

Romney elected Pres in 2012 - 41.6%

Ron Paul elected Pres in 2012 - 0.3%


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Intrade

Obama re-elected 57%

Romney elected 42.1%

 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Curious about the US pollsters. Some political websites have removed both Gallup and Rasmussen from their polling stats because they seem to be inconsistent with the rest of the pollsters.

Anyway here is the latest CNN poll

 

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/08/wow_13.php?ref=fpblg

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/24/cnn-poll-obama-49-romney...

 


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

Bec.De.Corbin wrote:
Who the fuck changes thier mind on who to vote for based on a poll?

Let's be serious for a moment - nobody changes their own mind in America. Plutocrats pretend to hold free and fair elections every two and four years, and some pathetically low percentage of Americans pretend to vote. Everyone and their dog knows elections in the USSA are rigged in favour of the oligarchy.

Ralph Nader wrote:
"It is now a well-accepted fact that our system for financing presidential and congressional campaigns is fundamentally corrupt and pernicious. The only way to ensure effective and honest representation by lawmakers is through decisive campaign finance reform, with public funding of campaigns."

Ralph Nader on bought and paid-for cosmetic governments in Washington with "Defense" controlling the lion's share of the budget every year religiously as the real economy goes down the poop chute.


Slumberjack
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Joined: Aug 8 2005

The only thing that seems to change with elections is the names on donor thank you lists which exclude the general public.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

And they would be donors representing about one percent of the population in America. 

If Americans want a voice in the halls of power, they will have to hire a corporate lobbyist at tens of thousands of dollars per half-hour.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

270 needed to win

Obama - 258

Romney - 191

 

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/08/romney-tampa-fail.php?ref=fpb 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Canada is not alone in having some issues with political pollsters.

Here are some interesting comments on the US pollsters, particularily about Rasmussen and Gallup

http://www.intrade.com/v4/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/preList/493964/559391.page


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Intrade - per cent chance of winning

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 3  / 57.9% / Up 0.1%  / 42.0%  / Down 0.3% / Obama by 15.9% 

Sep 2  / 57.8% / Up 0.8%  / 42.3%    /  Up 0.7% / Obama by 15.5%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

 

 

 Wondering where that post-convention bounce went to for Romney

 


josh
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Joined: Aug 5 2002
A better betting site is IEM. Which has been around longer, is smaller but with more sophisticated participants than intrade. Obama has taken off there the last couple of days. http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm

NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Intrade - per cent chance of winning

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 3 / 58.1%  / Up 0.2%   / 42.0% / Flatlined / Obama by 16.1%

Sep 3  / 57.9% / Up 0.1%  / 42.0%  / Down 0.3% / Obama by 15.9% 

Sep 2  / 57.8% / Up 0.8%  / 42.3%    /  Up 0.7% / Obama by 15.5%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

 

 

 Wondering where that post-convention bounce went to for Romney

 


NorthReport
Online
Joined: Jul 6 2008

Rasmussen probably reduced Romney's support prior to the GOP Convention in order to try and show that he has some kind of post-convention bounce in the polls. 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


josh
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Joined: Aug 5 2002

NorthReport wrote:

Rasmussen probably reduced Romney's support prior to the GOP Convention in order to try and show that he has some kind of post-convention bounce in the polls. 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Exactly.  And his poll has 4% more Republicans than Democrats.  Which has never happened in a presidential year in the history of polling.

 


Aristotleded24
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NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Intrade - per cent chance of winning

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 4 / 58.5% / Up 0.3% / 41.5% / Down 0.2% / Obama by 17%

Sep 4 / 58.2% / Up 0.1% / 41.7% / Down 0.3% / Obama by 16.5% 

Sep 3 / 58.1%  / Up 0.2%   / 42.0% / Flatlined / Obama by 16.1%

Sep 3  / 57.9% / Up 0.1%  / 42.0%  / Down 0.3% / Obama by 15.9% 

Sep 2  / 57.8% / Up 0.8%  / 42.3%    /  Up 0.7% / Obama by 15.5%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

 

 

 


NorthReport
Online
Joined: Jul 6 2008

 

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/

............RCP POLL AVERAGE / ELECTORAL VOTES 

States / Obama / Romney / Obama  / Romney

Colo.   / 47.6% / 46.6% / 9............/ 0

Fla.    / 47.4% / 46.4% / 29.......... / 0

Iowa   / 45.0% / 44.8%  / 6............/ 0

Mich.  / 47.8% / 45.4% / 16.........../ 0

Nev. / 49.0% / 45.7% / 6.............../ 0

N.H. / 48.3% / 44.8% / 4.............../ 0

N.C. / 45.3% / 47.3% / 0.............../ 15

Ohio / 46.6% / 45.2% / 18............./ 0

Va. / 47.3% / 46.7% / 13.............../ 0

Wis. / 48.2% / 46.8% / 10............./ 0

Swing-State Votes ...  /111............./ 15

Leaning/Likely State Votes 221....../ 191

Total Overall Votes--------/ 332....../ 206


NorthReport
Online
Joined: Jul 6 2008

Intrade - per cent chance of winning

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 5 / 58.5% / Flatlined / 41.3% / Down 0.2% / Obama by 17.2%

Sep 4 / 58.5% / Up 0.3% / 41.5% / Down 0.2% / Obama by 17%

Sep 4 / 58.2% / Up 0.1% / 41.7% / Down 0.3% / Obama by 16.5% 

Sep 3 / 58.1%  / Up 0.2%   / 42.0% / Flatlined / Obama by 16.1%

Sep 3  / 57.9% / Up 0.1%  / 42.0%  / Down 0.3% / Obama by 15.9% 

Sep 2  / 57.8% / Up 0.8%  / 42.3%    /  Up 0.7% / Obama by 15.5%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

 

 

 


NorthReport
Online
Joined: Jul 6 2008

Electoral College votes - 270 needed to win

Obama - 256

Romney - 191

 

http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard


NorthReport
Online
Joined: Jul 6 2008

Intrade - per cent chance of winning

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 5 / 59.9%  / Up 1.4%    / 40.2%   / Down 1.1% / Obama leads by 19.7%  

Sep 5 / 58.5% / Flatlined / 41.3% / Down 0.2% / Obama by 17.2%

Sep 4 / 58.5% / Up 0.3% / 41.5% / Down 0.2% / Obama by 17%

Sep 4 / 58.2% / Up 0.1% / 41.7% / Down 0.3% / Obama by 16.5% 

Sep 3 / 58.1%  / Up 0.2%   / 42.0% / Flatlined / Obama by 16.1%

Sep 3  / 57.9% / Up 0.1%  / 42.0%  / Down 0.3% / Obama by 15.9% 

Sep 2  / 57.8% / Up 0.8%  / 42.3%    /  Up 0.7% / Obama by 15.5%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

 

 

 


NorthReport
Online
Joined: Jul 6 2008

 

Intrade - per cent chance of winning

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 11 / 61.2% / Up 1.3%   / 38.7%  / Down - 1.5% / Obama leads by 22.5% 

Sep 5 / 59.9%  / Up 1.4%    / 40.2%   / Down 1.1% / Obama leads by 19.7%  

Sep 5 / 58.5% / Flatlined / 41.3% / Down 0.2% / Obama by 17.2%

Sep 4 / 58.5% / Up 0.3% / 41.5% / Down 0.2% / Obama by 17%

Sep 4 / 58.2% / Up 0.1% / 41.7% / Down 0.3% / Obama by 16.5% 

Sep 3 / 58.1%  / Up 0.2%   / 42.0% / Flatlined / Obama by 16.1%

Sep 3  / 57.9% / Up 0.1%  / 42.0%  / Down 0.3% / Obama by 15.9% 

Sep 2  / 57.8% / Up 0.8%  / 42.3%    /  Up 0.7% / Obama by 15.5%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

 

 

 


NorthReport
Online
Joined: Jul 6 2008

Check out the chart on the website.

 

Polling Data

Poll / Date  / Sample / MOE / Obama (D) / Romney (R) / Spread /

RCP Average / 9/4 - 9/10 / -- / -- / 49.0 / 45.4 / Obama +3.6

ABC News/Wash Post / 9/7 - 9/9 / 710 LV / 4.5 / 49 / 48 / Obama +1

CNN/Opinion Research / 9/7 - 9/9 / 709 LV / 3.5 / 52 / 46 / Obama +6

IBD/CSM/TIPP9 /4 - 9/9 / 808 RV / 3.5 / 46 / 44 / Obama +2

Rasmussen (Tuesday) / 3-Day Tracking / 1500 LV / 3.0 / 48 / 45 / Obama +3

Gallup (Tuesday) / 7-Day Tracking / 3050 RV / 2.0 / 50 / 44Obama +6

 

 

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_electi...


Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

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