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Mexico's Presidential election 2012

Doug
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Joined: Apr 17 2001

Apparently the woman who handed out the slips of paper giving the candidates' order of speaking upstaged them all with her cleavage in the first of two debates before the election on July 1. The job of three of those candidates was to upset the strong lead PRI candidate Enrique Pena Nieto is enjoying. Which was probably difficult given that the debate was on at the same time as a Mexican soccer playoff game. Debate centered around the economy, corruption and the ongoing drug war.


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M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

Quote:
The key concerns for Mexicans ahead of the July vote are undoubtedly the country’s gang violence – tens of thousands dead since 2006 and no end to the drug trade in sight – and the economy. The really tough questions about the rapidly widening wealth gap, the corruption that allows organized crime to flourish, the PAN’s militarization of the country, and the disgrace of up to 50,000 deaths in a so-called “crackdown” on crime were telling by their absence.

If the PRI does in fact win – and does so cleanly – it may be in large part down to the perception that the old ruling party knew how to handle the so-called drug cartels, negotiating pacts and keeping turf wars to a minimum. As a former student of mine told me, “We’d rather have a corrupt country at peace than a corrupt country with this kind of violence.”

Although many feel he burned his bridges in 2006, the only candidate offering any change to the old economic order is AMLO [Andrés Manuel López Obrador], who is arguing for a re-think of Mexico’s neoliberal model and a greater emphasis on social policy to combat crime. Still portrayed in the mainstream as a loony leftist, he’s about as “radical” as France’s François  Hollande.

Counterpunch


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Lopez Obrador as PRD almost beat Caderon in last election.

 

Last
PAN 36% PRD 35% and PRI 22%
Opinion Polls in March 2012
PAN 24% PRD 21% and PRI 42%

PRI is just like Liberal Party of Canada
PRD similar NDP
PAN - Conservative.

Right?


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

Obrador did beat Calderon in the 2006 election, but Calderon was declared President through massive vote fraud. This precipitated a crisis that lasted for several weeks.


Doug
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Joined: Apr 17 2001

Mexico just can't catch a break. Drug war, poverty, a political party having to use a second-hand logo from the Canadian Alliance...


Doug
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Joined: Apr 17 2001

With a month to go, the PRD is closing in on the leading PRI!

 

a poll released Thursday by the newspaper Reforma said Pena Nieto led with only 29 percent support, with Lopez Obrador close at 26 percent while Vazquez Mota fell to 18 percent. The poll was conducted in late May and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. A month earlier, Pena Nieto had led the leftist 32 percent to 21 percent.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Anyone knows when mexican general elections close time and preliminary online website?

 

I feel PRI would be victory. =S  but i hope PRD wins! will see tomorrow


DaveW
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Joined: Dec 24 2008

the drug war has turned the relatively stable Mexico I knew in the 1970s into the new Colombia, with a civil war verging on State collapse in several regions;

as they say: pobre Mexico, tan lejos de Dios, tan cerca de los Estados Unidos...

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

PRI 51.26% PRD 25.51% PAN 19.66% 

http://www.google.com.mx/elections/ed/mx/results


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

DaveW wrote:

the drug war has turned the relatively stable Mexico I knew in the 1970s into the new Colombia, with a civil war verging on State collapse in several regions;

as they say: pobre Mexico, tan lejos de Dios, tan cerca de los Estados Unidos...

 

Did the PRI have any particular proposals for ending the drug war? 

(It wouldn't surprise me if their proposal was to fight the druglords by shooting left-wing students)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tlatelolco_massacre


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

PRD stronghold in Southern Mexico, PRI in Northern Mexico. PAN very few riding.

PRI 36.95%
PRD 29.38%
PAN 29.09%


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

Is that an exit poll, or the latest partial returns?


jjuares
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Joined: Jan 21 2012

I was hoping the PRD would have done better.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

whole mexico but not finish at 8% booths (12.137/143,132)

 

PRI 36.18% (1.3 million)
PRD 32.23% (1.2 million)
PAN 26.86% (1.0 million)

Josefina's riding Mexico City - PRD highest percent 52% and her PAN is 3rd in District Federal
Pena's riding State of Mexico - PRI 42% and PRD 35%
Andres's riding Tabasco - PRD 63%

Calderon's riding to PRI 43%, PRD 29%, PAN 22%


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

20% out of 143,000

PRI 36.4% (3.5 million) = 18 or 19 states
PRD 33.0% (3.1 million) = 9 states (from 15 in 2006)
PAN 25.86% (2.5 million) = 3 or 4 states (16 in 2006)


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

It might not be over after all, then.  That looks like the PRD might still have a chance.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Any results from the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate? Hopefully the PRD will have improved to the point of being in serious contention in 2015.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

I'm guessing this will be the time when "computer trouble" shuts down the returns for a few hours...and then, when they start coming out again, Pena Nieto will suddenly be ten points up. 

 

 


Ippurigakko
Online
Joined: May 30 2011

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/07/02/mexico-presidential-electi...

PRI's Pena Nieto wins Mexican presidency, early results show Leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador refuses to concede

 

Poor Andres, I was really hoping he wins.

 

88% out of 143,000

PRI 37.72% (16.8 million) = 20 states
PRD 32.05% (14.2 million) = 8 states
PAN 25.45% (11.3 million) = 4 states

 

PAN supporters switch to PRI that reason they trying to stop PRD victory? perhaps but I think Mexican vote for Pena cause they think PRI is easily in power but they vote him as person and handsome guy, not party, just like Justin Trudeau, i guess

digusting....


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

so far still 94% reporting
PRI 37.99% (18 million)
PRD 31.76% (15 million)
PAN 25.46% (12 million)


NDPP
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Joined: Dec 28 2008

Mexico's Return to 'Perfect Dictatorship'

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/07/03/mexicos-return-to-perfect-dictato...

"Back to the future with the PRI..'


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

As small good news, in Congress the Progressive Movement has 136 seats and the New Alliance Party (founded by the Union of Education Workers) has 10, so the PRI/PVEM alliance has only 240, short of a majority, while the conservative PAN has 114.

The Progressive Movement is a left-wing electoral alliance of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (broad left front, 101 seats), the Labour Party (left-socialist, 19 seats) and the social democratic Citizens' Movement (16 seats).

The PRI/PVEM alliance could be compared to a Liberal/Green alliance in Canada, in the sense of the old "natural governing party" label for the Liberals. 


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

Why the hell does the Green Party of Mexico ally itself with the PRI? 

I mean...seriously...the party that supposedly represents environmental values working with the party that created the Mexican oil industry?  Weird beyond weird. 

On another point...why was Obrador not able to improve on his vote from 2007?  He actually LOST some ground(losing Chiapas, of all places,  to the PRI).  Will this be the end of Obrador as a presidential candidate?  I hope the PRD has some better prospects rising through the ranks(and perhaps their increased legislative caucus will produce some potential new presidential timber for the future).

 

 


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Ken Burch wrote:
why was Obrador not able to improve on his vote from 2007?  He actually LOST some ground(losing Chiapas, of all places,  to the PRI).  Will this be the end of Obrador as a presidential candidate?

According to Wikipedia, Obrador wanted to pay for his program not with increased taxes, but with mild austerity. I'm guessing that any candidate that proposed raising taxes on Mexico's elite would not do very well.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

Well, he didn't propose raising taxes on Mexico's elites and STILL didn't do well.  What the hell does that tell us?


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

I meant to point out that the eight percent maximum disparity clause in Mexico's weird electoral system capped PRI's Chamber of Deputies seat total to 207 (157 FPTP mandates and fifty list seats); otherwise, the party would have been entitled to sixty-seven PR seats, for a total of 224, which would have given the PRI-PVEM coalition an overall Chamber majority.

Explanation: Mexico has a mixed system, 300 winner-take-all-single-district, and 200 by PR. Unlike the German/Scottish MMP system, the 200 PR seats are not "compensatory" (top-up), but are in parallel with the 300 local seats. However, as a gesture towards the compensatory system, once the total number of a party's MPs exceeds its vote share by more than 8%, it switches to the normal compensatory calculation, capping the excess seats. Unique.


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