North Korea

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WWWTT

Agreed

Before there is reunification of Korea, there has to be an end to the still-extant state of war. No peace treaty was ever signed. It is just a cease-fire.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

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As to elections, I would guess that Juche would probably still capture seats in the North. Generations of DPRK subjects have been conditioned from their earliest ages to be totally committed to Juche.

They've never seen Juche reduced to "opposition party" status though.  And given that DPRK has half the population of SK, I have to think that even "opposition party" status would be a bit of an aspirational goal.

Quote:
Before there is reunification of Korea, there has to be an end to the still-extant state of war.

If the two Koreas want to unify then it's none of my business.  But at this point I can't help thinking that just finally ending the "war" would be a pretty good start.  North Dakota and South Dakota seem to get along OK without needing to merge into "Dakota".  Maybe DPRK and SK are different enough now that it makes sense to remain separate sovereign states.  It would, however, be interesting to see if there was any discernable pattern to migrancy between them if the DMZ came down.

 

WWWTT

 North Dakota and South Dakota seem to get along OK without needing to merge into "Dakota".  

Not to mention that they are both part of the same country the United States. That's like saying if Japan never lost their colonialism power in Korea, then split Korea into north/south seperate states, then said hey, look everyone, Japanese colonialism works great! Just look at our Korean states north/south, just like two peas in a pod!

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I guess my point was just that there doesn't seem to me some pressing need to have only one "Korea" just because right now there are two.  Surely that can't be the best reason to merge two sovereign nations into one?

WWWTT

OK thanks for clearing up your position.

I threw Japan into my comment because I believe that this whole issue started with the Japanese colonialism. Similar situation in near vicinity is China. In China, there's a term called "the century of shame" when western powers with Japan disrupted China. Vietnam and Taiwan  are still seperated from mainland China. Now I doubt Vietnam will ever re unify with China, but possibly Taiwan? Pointing this out because there's a different culture history and geography shaping views of people there. I know for a fact that many of us in the west don't see a lot of this when viewing the east through our telescopic media viewers. We can imagine Germany reunifying, but not Korea.

Rikardo

Counterpunch has a good article in the US/UN total destruction of NK 1950-53. Few people know of this.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

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Few people know of this.

Few people still have patience for Counterpunch's predictable silly-talk.  They've learned nothing from The Boy Who Cried Wolf.

cco

WWWTT wrote:

Vietnam and Taiwan  are still seperated from mainland China. Now I doubt Vietnam will ever re unify with China, but possibly Taiwan?

"Reunification" seems to be an odd term given the histories involved. Perhaps an apt analogy would be if 50 million Hillary voters had decided to head north and conquer Canada this year, rename it Democratic America, and then Trump had asked when America could be reunified with Democratic America and Mexico (Vietnam in this analogy).

voice of the damned

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Few people know of this.

Few people still have patience for Counterpunch's predictable silly-talk.  They've learned nothing from The Boy Who Cried Wolf.

Well, I think it's pretty well-established, outside of Counterpunch, that the US and its UN allies rained down some pretty serious death and destruction on the Korean peninsula during the War.

Whether that proves anything about what's going to happen now is another matter. Speaking as the babbler with the best chance of being incinerated in a Korean War II,  I renewed my contract for another year a few months back, with only slightly more trepidation than usual. 

WWWTT

Sorry for the confusion cco. I shouldn’t throw Vietnam i with this because I’m only referring to a smaller northern part of Vietnam along the border with Guangxi. Sorry my bad. 

NDPP

US Will Take N Korea 'Into Our Own Hands' If China Doesn't Do More - Haley

https://on.rt.com/8ueu

"We know that, above all, North Korea wants to talk to the US about its own security assurances" - Lavrov."

NDPP

US Ready 'Anytime' For Direct North Korea Talks - Tillerson

https://on.rt.com/8ulv

"US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said all that stands between direct diplomacy with North Korea is their willingness 'to come to the table' with a desire to 'make a different choice.' 'We're ready to talk anytime they'd like to talk,' Tillerson said about North Korea on Tuesday afternoon.

This shift away from US policy demanding North Korea negotiate on terms of its own disarmament came during the secretary of state's remarks in Washington DC to the Atlantic Council..."

Cody87

WWWTT wrote:

i believe Korea will be reunited. It will be a slow and gradual process. Perhaps I didn’t articulate this properly in earlier comments and I probably implied something quicker with Xi JinPing. But I still believe Xi JinPing will get a lot of the credit when a peace treaty is finally reached between north and south. 

Oh and by the way, don’t take this the wrong way, but maybe it’s you that’s brainwashed? Just saying. 

Okay, but how do you figure that could happen peacefully? Under what circumstances could SK be reasonably expected to submit to the authority of NK? Under what circumstances could NK submit to the global community's arbitration?

I'm asking honestly here: I'd love to have hope for a peaceful solution, and to be clear I'm not advocating a military one but merely resigned to a continuation of the status quo. I just don't see how South Koreans would ever allow a regression to a dictatorship style of government - especially one that treats it's citizens the way NK does - and I don't see Kim Jong-Un giving up his power even if he somehow had a credible guarantee it wouldn't also cost him his life.

An almost-peaceful option would be a military coup where the military then submits to the UN or China. I think this is best case scenario, but (I believe) I already addressed why this is almost impossible because everyone is watching everyone all the time.

As for your last comment, we're all blind to our ideological biases. I see the truth no better than anyone else, and maybe less than some, but I at least do my best to be fair, keep an open mind, and I have a solid history of changing my opinion when presented with new and better evidence. Sadly, many others (who are free to think how they want) do not. In the context of the discussion, though, I hope you recognize that the North Korean population does not have these luxuries.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Reform of the DPRK will have to come from within Juche. The people there don't know anything else.

WWWTT

I'm asking honestly here: I'd love to have hope for a peaceful solution, and to be clear I'm not advocating a military one but merely resigned to a continuation of the status quo. I just don't see how South Koreans would ever allow a regression to a dictatorship style of government - especially one that treats it's citizens the way NK does - and I don't see Kim Jong-Un giving up his power even if he somehow had a credible guarantee it wouldn't also cost him his life.

I believe the peace treaty will have to come first. Then open trade open cultural exchange. As the economies of China continue to get bigger, North Korea's will as well. This will take time. I also believe that there's a lot of false negative propaganda about the north. Therefore in the west, we can't imagine Korea coming together. This is also an issue for the Koreans first, China Russia Japan secondly to resolve! US Australia and other western countries should act like foreign countries.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
I just don't see how South Koreans would ever allow a regression to a dictatorship style of government - especially one that treats it's citizens the way NK does - and I don't see Kim Jong-Un giving up his power even if he somehow had a credible guarantee it wouldn't also cost him his life.

I completely agree.  SK would be fools to join their interests to DPRK, and Un is unlikely to let his God-like dynasty end in the interest of one Korea.

They're like a happy couple who separated (though not divorced) back in the 50's and went in totally different directions.  Why would they reunite now?  Again, if the peoples of Korea want this then that's their call, but I would think peace would be possible without remarriage.  Just sign the fucking treaty.

Pogo Pogo's picture

And of course either the US or China would be very upset depending on the leanings of the reunited whole.

voice of the damned

Pogo wrote:

And of course either the US or China would be very upset depending on the leanings of the reunited whole.

If there's a peace-treaty and the US pulls out, the Chinese would be losing one of their main incentives for propping up the DPRK. Though the possibility of a post-collapse tumult of refugees flooding into China might be enough to keep the Kim dynasty on their payroll.

If there's a peace treaty and the US stays on the peninsula, China would likely want to continue keeping the DPRK afloat as a buffer zone.

Overall, I agree that the most realistic scenario(apart from the status quo, which is always the most likely possibility in Korea) is a peace-treaty, but with no immediate German-style move toward reunification, but rather the two countries maintaining their respective political systems, with perhaps increased but still heavily restricted migration between the two. Also maybe a revival of the Sunshine investments by South Korean businesses into the North, but with China still being the main external political influence on the DPRK.

WWWTT

President of South Korea is now in China. I watched the coverage on CCTV 4. State news is speaking very highly and positive of this visit!  If anything additional comes up I’ll post it here. 

http://www.india.com/news/agencies/south-korean-leader-starts-fence-mending-trip-to-china-2746453/

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

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with perhaps increased but still heavily restricted migration between the two.

I'm just guessing here, so correct me if I'm off by an order of magnitude or whatever, but...

Number of DPRK citizens permitted to emigrate from DPRK in 2016: 0

Number of world citizens applying for citizenship in DPRK in 2016: 0

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

With those estimates, Magoo, you are either right on, or off by a factor of infinity, not just an order or three.

voice of the damned

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
with perhaps increased but still heavily restricted migration between the two.

I'm just guessing here, so correct me if I'm off by an order of magnitude or whatever, but...

Number of DPRK citizens permitted to emigrate from DPRK in 2016: 0

Number of world citizens applying for citizenship in DPRK in 2016: 0

I was thinking that, in the event of a peace treaty, you might see North Korea permitting some of its citizens to migrate to the south as workers, sort of the way they allow(or did allow, up until the recent sanctions) some of their citizens to go to other nations as workers, and send home remittances.

Not that I'm a huge fan of those hire-a-North-Korean programs. By all accounts, the host countries allow the workers' North Korean handlers to keep them in heavily restricted conditions that make Harper's TFW program look like a socialist collective. I gather the idea is to prevent the workers from having exposure to outside ideas(I'm pretty sure this would violate the Charter Of Rights if put into practice in Canada with the assistance of the government.)

As for people right NOW trying to move to North Korea, not too many, though there have been a few defectors from that country asking to return. There are some right now who say they were tricked into coming to South Korea, via exaggerated promises, by brokers.

https://tinyurl.com/yb8otb8c

But yeah, not too many people without a prior connection to North Korea wanting to move there, I'd imagine. The recently deceased Charles Robert Jenkins, an American soldier who defected northward in the mid-1960s and was allowed to go back a few years ago, does not seem to have enjoyed his stay at all.

 

NDPP

US Secretary of State Issues New Ultimatum To North Korea

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/12/16/nkor-d16.html

"Tillerson declared: 'North Korea must earn its way back to the [negotiating] table. The pressure campaign must, and will continue..."

NDPP

Canada And US To Host North Korea Meeting in Vancouver Next Month (and vid)

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-and-u-s-to-host-north-korea-meeti...

"Canada and the United States will co-host a major international meeting of foreign ministers o the North Korea crisis next month in Vancouver. Tillerson and Freeland also talked about the Ukraine-Russia crisis and the political turmoil in Venezuela. Freeland announced she would travel to Ukraine on Wednesday..."

See also 'Questions on Security'

 

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

North Korea may be behind a massive cyber attack on a South Korean bitcoin exchange that caused it to collapse

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-south-korea-bitcoin-heist-201...

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Looks like we'll be going with nonviolent economic sanctions, rather than a "bloody nose" military strike.

If they want to be a pariah state, they can be a pariah state.  Juche, after all, means "self-reliance".

NDPP

UN Imposes Harsh New Sanctions on N Korea

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/12/23/nkor-d23.html

"The London-based Telegraph this week reported, based on three sources, that the White House had drawn up advanced plans for a pre-emptive attack on North Korea..."

 

Russia Puts S-400 Triumph Missile Defense System At North Korean Border

https://youtu.be/NKhF1r_YV-U

This deployment of the S-400 is a very significant development. Anything from about Pyongyang north can now be hit. Any US plans for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea now risk serious Russian S -400 consequences.  

 

NDPP

North Korea Denounces New UN Sanctions As An 'Act Of War'

https://on.rt.com/8vid

"The fresh sanctions are tantamount to [a] complete economic blockade of the DPRK...If the US wishes to live safely, it must abandon its hostile policy towards the DPRK and learn to co-exist with the country that has nuclear weapons,' the ministry stated..."

WWWTT

Don't worry everybody. If NORAD can do a bang up cats ass job of tracking a figment of imagination, then they should do real good when those NK ICBM's come in at 20 000KM/HR at an altitude of 2,000km.

https://www.noradsanta.org/

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

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If the US wishes to live safely, it must abandon its hostile policy towards the DPRK and learn to co-exist with the country that has nuclear weapons,' the ministry stated...

Does Korean transliterate an "N" the same as an "S"?

Because the last I heard, these were U.N. sanctions, not U.S. sanctions.

Also, didn't take long for the nukes that DPRK "needs" for "self-defense" to become an offensive threat, yes?

Quote:
then they should do real good when those NK ICBM's come in at 20 000KM/HR at an altitude of 2,000km.

Well, there's also the S-400 Triumph Missile Defense System mentioned in post 430.  If Russia could knock down a DPRK nuke, but chooses not to, they'll have some 'splaining to do to the world, won't they?  When it comes to preventing nuclear winter, I should think they have the same duty to the whole world as any other country -- and by placing those anti-missile batteries, they just volunteered.

WWWTT

We went through this already, there's no defence against a missle moving at 20K km/hr at over an altitude of 2K km. Everything I've read so far either states this or overstates the capacity of hittling an ICBM to reasure American's. Now for short to mid range missles, From what I've read, there's a 50/50 chance. As well, NK has subs with the capacity of launching their ICBM's. The US is pissed off for good reason!

The only time I hear about NORAD is around this time of year when they get all serious about a figment of imagination.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

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As well, NK has subs with the capacity of launching their ICBM's. The US is pissed off for good reason!

The world should be pissed off for good reason.  DPRK is bringing disarmament back to the 1980's because they're feeling "dissed".

I'm curious though:  if missiles are essentially invulnerable to interception, what's this "S-400" we just heard about?  Just a waste of time?  Post #430 made it sound like a game-changer.  But what say you?

WWWTT

Sorry mr Magoo I had a good reply for you but lost it. Anyways I’ll start again. 

The russian anti middle system you mentioned from what I found isn’t as good as the US systems now in place in and around South Korea and Japan.  Long range ICBM that the North now have from what I found are untouchable because of their altitude and super high speed. And with the sub capacity to launch ICBM that the North have, they can wipe out the US. 

Since there was a unanimous vote at the UN to sanction North Korea recently, it looks like every country knows that North Korea is now untouchable. 

But what gets me is that how did the North successful develop their ICBM’s? And why are the stats of their speed and flight altitude so similar to the Russian Satan 2? Keep in mind Mr Magoo that these ICBM are not possessed by the US France Britain China or India. From what I have found, only two countries have them Russia and North Korea. Now I’m sure since Europe US and China can launch satellites into space, they have the tech to develop a similar ICBM but from my understanding they do not process anything right now with the same capabilities 

WWWTT

OK I did some searching on the Russian S-400 system

https://www.defencenewsindia.com/russias-s-400-triumf-versus-us-patriot-...

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/revealed-us-navys-plan-defeat-...

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-tests-its-next-generation-anti-aircraft-s...

And then there's this link that raises some serious question about the S-400, S-300 systems

https://www.rferl.org/a/weher-was-the-s-300-s-400-missile-defense-system...

I also cheched out the installation of the S-400 for North Korea. Russia is putting up a strong front against the US in this action and making it more difficult for the US to actually pull through on their threats to invade the North.

As far as the effectiveness of the S-400 goes, there are some saying it's effective, some not. The US systems seem to have more combat experience (no surprise there) so for the time being I'm going to stick with the US system being more effective but wouldn't count out the Russian's ability. Either way, invading the North in no way be a cake walk for the US! Or vise versa for the North invading the south. Millions will die for sure if any invasion happened!

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Long range ICBM that the North now have from what I found are untouchable because of their altitude and super high speed. And with the sub capacity to launch ICBM that the North have, they can wipe out the US.

That's fascinating.  They've apparently had some sort of ICBM technology for about two months now, but already they're launching them from submarines?  And can "wipe out" the U.S.?

Quote:
nd then there's this link that raises some serious question about the S-400, S-300 systems

Gosh!  If only the United States had the superior missile technology that you think the People's Republic of k00Kery has.

But let me ask:  why does it seem like you're sort of gleeful with regard to your optimistic assessment of DPRK's missile systems?  I mean, you seem genuinely excited that they *might* have an ICBM that *might* be able to carry a nuclear payload that *might* kill millions.

Do you feel that's something a progressive such as yourself should applaud?  Asking for a friend.

WWWTT

What do you think a progressive is? Someone who lets bullies  push them around? Even before I get into that, I find some of this missile tech interesting. I also find it refreshing to see a small country stand up to the US. Now I sincerely believe that there’s something a little more to their ICBM that western news media isn’t telling us but countries like China and Russia know because of the unanimous UN vote sanctioning them. I also believe that the threat of a US invasion was very real in the recent past and that other countries covertly helped the North develop these ICBM programs as a deterrent to the US colonialism idealism. There’s a lot of talk about a new world order coming, revolving around China. Seems odd that China is very vocal about the North going too far and then the North gets this military capacity. 

My guess in moving forward is that the North will want to cooperate and negotiate after the Chinese spring festival which comes late this year. So probably by March 2018

Sorry I made an error and must correct(but in a way I didn't, depending on what calendar you use)The next spring festival is actually next year in 2018 around Feb.15, the year of the dog. It will not be later this year (2017 gregorian calendar) as I mentioned in this comment. Sorry for the confusion

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
What do you think a progressive is? Someone who lets bullies  push them around?

I do like to hope that a progressive country -- or the progressive humans who support it -- might see economic sanctions as a money thing, not "violence" and not "an act of war" and would similary act non-violently. 

Do you suppose DPRK will use their "defensive" weapons of mass destruction offensively, WWTT?  Should they?  To protest most of the world wanting sweet fuck all to do with them?

WWWTT

You give the North Koreans very little credit for their very progressive approach! They will use their advanced weapons program to negotiate from a level playing feild. Now that the North can effectively do to the US what the US has said it would do to the North, they will have an serious edge now that they did not pocess a year ago. The link below supports my theory. As it develops I will keep updating.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/12/05/asia-pacific/politics-diplo...

It's funny, when the other posters here were commenting on the Trump idiotic comments painting the US into a corner, I actually gave a ratts ass about this topic. But now that the North has taken the lead and advanced its strike capacity to include the entire US, this topic is becoming a great interest!!!! More babblers should be getting into this subject and the events as they unfold!

NorthReport

Let's hope they do.

SOUTH KOREA PREDICTS NORTH KOREA'S KIM JONG UN WILL HOLD TALKS WITH THE U.S. IN 2018 DESPITE NUCLEAR THREATS

http://www.newsweek.com/south-korea-predicts-north-koreas-kim-jong-un-wi...

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
You give the North Koreans very little credit for their very progressive approach!

Because there's nothing progressive about spending 98% of their resources to build and test new nuclear weapons, and threatening the world with them every time their emotionally fragile leader feels dismissed.

WWWTT

Sorry Mr Magoo but that’s a little over the top. North Korea will do what North Korea feels it needs to do in order to survive. Obviously they got to this point with the help of some big players in the region and like I said before, will probably start seeking some form of negotiations come soon after the Chinese New Year (Koreans have a very similar new year festival to the Chinese). This debate that you want to revolve around demonizing North Korea is really not moving the discussion along. 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
North Korea will do what North Korea feels it needs to do in order to survive

Any country on earth could say the same.

cco

Maybe they should start talking about North Korea's "right to exist". It's been a pretty successful reframing of the debate on the other end of the continent.

NDPP

North Korea - UN Security Council's 15:0

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/48496.htm

"Choking a country into submission..."

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
It's been a pretty successful reframing of the debate on the other end of the continent.

When Israel claims to feel threatened, or when Dubya talks about the Axis of Evil, or terr'rists who hate us for our freedoms and are waiting by the border for any sign of weakness, we seem to understand this to be propaganda, intended to help a government secure more power or put a moratorium on more rights or escape any kind of (treasonous!) reasonable criticisms.

But when Un (or his father) do it, or when Maduro (or his "father") do it, it's like some kind of Jedi mind trick.  Suddenly the shadowy, un-nameable, unproven threats and coups and assassins and mafias ARE REAL or something.

If the U.S. really wanted to take over DPRK, they could have done it back when they couldn't have launched a firecracker over their tallest farmhouse.  But Un has to tell the same bedtime story every night -- "The Imperialists are coming for us and that's why we can't have things like the internet, or free elections, or food.  Be strong!"

voice of the damned

@Magoo

Andrei Lankov, a Russian-born scholar who studied in North Korea during the Cold War(and is now a decided non-supporter of the regime) does think that the Kims might have a not entirely implausible fear of attack from the west.

Today, Kim Jong Un is in control, and he has the same long-term task as his father and grandfather: to ensure the survival of the regime under the control of himself and his eventual familial successor. There are three major threats to that — obstacles which, judging by Kim’s policies, he has not only identified but is methodically working to neutralize.

The first threat is foreign attack, something that clearly keeps Kim, like his father, up at night. This might seem paranoid. But it’s not paranoia when they really are out to get you. Look at the fate of Saddam Hussein, or the Taliban leaders of Afghanistan, once frequently bracketed together with Pyongyang by U.S. officials. But it’s the sorry fate of Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi that taught the Kim family its firmest lesson. In 2003, the Libyan strongman agreed to surrender his nuclear weapons development program in exchange for generous economic benefits promised by the West — the first time such a deal had been publicly struck by a state formerly hostile to the United States.

But when revolution broke out in Libya in 2011, it was the NATO no-fly zone that doomed Qaddafi’s regime. That story ended with Qaddafi’s violated body strung across a car bonnet. A decade ago U.S. diplomats and journalists, then full of enthusiasm about Libyan nuclear disarmament deal, used to say that North Korean leaders “should learn the lessons of Libya.” And there’s no doubt that they have, even if they’ve drawn very different conclusions.

And just to be clear, this isn't the same thing as the argument(heard from various "anti-imperialist" quarters) that the North Korean regime are benevolent humanitarians lovingly striving to protect their people from harm. In all likelihood, Kim Jeong Un wanting to prevent an attack on the DPRK is like Marie Antoinette wanting to protect an attack on France. Nothing to do with love for the people, everything to do with personal survival.

https://tinyurl.com/lwjomzn

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I don't want to argue too hard here, because you're actually living in Korea and such.

But I wonder whether the unfortunate moral of the story is that Qaddafi showed weakness, and that's the kiss of death for strongman dictators?  Your timeline suggests eight years between Qaddafi agreeing to ease up on the nukes, and Qaddafi getting the Mussolini treatment.  What changed?  Surely it's not just a given that if you cease developing WMDs, they come to get you.

WWWTT

First off, I don't think Libya Afghanistan Iraq Vietnam are "jedi mind tricks". This is also a complicated issue, with Japan, the former agressor that created this whole can of worms to begin with.

Here's an interesting article with a bit of history that may shed some light on this.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/did-stalin-lure-the-united-stat...

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