UK election prediction thread
April 19, 2010 - 5:57pm
Post zero
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Okay, even though thanks to a certain Icelandic volcano, I will now be unable to vote in the UK election (left it to the last minute to register), I'm consoling myself now with speculation on who will win what where.
I'm going to start off with a fairly modest prediction. The SNP will hold on to their 2005 total, might lose Glasgow East, but will gain a few others. I'm not going to be surprised if they get into double figures, or somewhere close to it. Salmond's claim of 20 seats next time around was a classic example of over-bidding. I think he would be delighted for the party to get into double figures, and make inroads especially into central Scotland.
Because of the vagaries of FPTP, Labour could come in third in terms of popular vote but win the largest shares of seats while even if the Lib Dems win the most number of votes they are almost certain to be the third party in twerms of seats.
It's unlikely we'll know for certain on election night who the PM will be. Of course, by convention, as Brown's government is in office they are entitled to remain until they are defeated in a confidence vote so Labour has the advantage in a hung parliament.