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josh

bekayne wrote:

montrealer58 wrote:

Those polls don't factor Ukip.

It's not the polls, it's the prediction models. 12-19% is supposed to give them only 1 seat?

 

Apparently, that is possible because their vote is not concentrated.

 

NorthReport
lagatta

That was funny, though of course it is sadder when "New Labour" does essentiallly the same. The UK Green party has a (middle-aged) boy band video, with Tories, Labour LibDems and UKIP: relevant in MANY countries in terms of "austerity" (and Labour doing f-all against it) but are the Greens a credible ecoleft alternative? There are many flavours of Green, from very progressive to frankly on the right.

https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2015/04/08/greens-launch-boy-band-ele...

NorthReport

Labour continues to narrow the gap - it's a real horse race now!

Party / GE / Apr 4 / Apr 7 / Apr 8 / Apr 9 / Apr 10 / Change

Conservatives / 302 / 283 / 287 / 284 / 282 / 281 / Down 21 seats

Labour / 256 / 277 / 271 / 274 / 275 / 277 / Up 21 seats, now within 4 seats of the Conservatives

SNP / 6 / 40 / 42  / 41 / 41 / 41 / Up 35 seats

Liberal Democrats / 56 / 26 / 27 / 28 / 28 / 28 / Down 28 seats

326 seats needed for majority

 

NorthReport

General Election 2015: Tories switch to campaign Plan B as they suffer in opinion polls

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-el...

NorthReport

Don't much about the Greens apart from the Canadian Greens who are just basically another right-wing party, as if we don't already have enough of those.

4 of the last 5 polls show Labour in the lead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom...

NorthReport

Labour 40 seats short of majority, so Miliband better up his game.

Lab 286 seats, Up 28 seats

Cons - 273 seats, Down 34

SNP - 48 seats, Up 42 seats

Lib - 19 seats, Down 38 seats 

 

326 required for majority

 

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

swallow

NorthReport wrote:

Don't much about the Greens apart from the Canadian Greens who are just basically another right-wing party, as if we don't already have enough of those.

4 of the last 5 polls show Labour in the lead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom...

I think the Greens of England and Wales are firmly positioned as a left-ecologist party. Probably mroe so than Labour. 

lagatta

Yes, I got that impression. I wish I knew more about the UK Greens. The Québec Greens have taken a sharp turn to the left, and proclaim themselves ecosocialist. They used to have very questionable social policies, for example wanting welfare benefits to be "in kind" so beneficiaries would have to have "healthy eating habits" (which is very different from helping poor people access healthful foods).

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Labour 40 seats short of majority, so Miliband better up his game.

Lab 286 seats, Up 28 seats

Cons - 273 seats, Down 34

SNP - 48 seats, Up 42 seats

Lib - 19 seats, Down 38 seats 

 

326 required for majority

 

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

The SNP have already said they are willing to go into coalition with Labour, so from that poll, they are 2-4 seats over the top. Clegg is very likely to lose his seat (as is Farage), and if the LibDems are left with any seats at all they will not be cooperating with the Tories any more. Canadian Liberals should note that the destruction of the Liberal Party is directly related to how much you collude with the Conservatives. Clegg has done more to destroy the British Liberal Party than any man since Jeremy Thorpe. May Justin Trudeau follow in his footsteps.

NorthReport

Party / GE / Apr 4 / Apr 7 / Apr 8 / Apr 9 / Apr 10 / Apr 11 / Apr 12 / Change

Conservatives / 302 / 283 / 287 / 284 / 282 / 281 / 283 / Down 19 seats

Labour / 256 / 277 / 271 / 274 / 275 / 277 / 274 / Up 18 seats

SNP / 6 / 40 / 42  / 41 / 41 / 41 / 42 / Up 36 seats

Liberal Democrats / 56 / 26 / 27 / 28 / 28 / 28 / 27 /Down 29 seats

326 seats needed for majority

 

 

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Labour 40 seats short of majority, so Miliband better up his game.

Lab 286 seats, Up 28 seats

Cons - 273 seats, Down 34

SNP - 48 seats, Up 42 seats

Lib - 19 seats, Down 38 seats 

 

326 required for majority

 

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Highly unlikely that anyone will get a majority. But Labour's likely to be in the best position to form a government, either with the SNP or the LDs.

NorthReport

Or maybe both.

NorthReport

This race is far from over but.....

Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

Poll takes Tories to 39% ahead of Labour on 33%, as Lib Dem support stays at 8% and Ukip drops back two points to tie with Greens on 7%

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-...

NorthReport

General Election 2015: Conservatives have six-point lead, poll finds

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11531506/General-E...

NorthReport
josh

NorthReport wrote:

This race is far from over but.....

Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

Poll takes Tories to 39% ahead of Labour on 33%, as Lib Dem support stays at 8% and Ukip drops back two points to tie with Greens on 7%

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-...

In contrast, the Ashcroft poll displayed a similar trend to last week’s surveys showing support for the Conservatives dropping: Panelbase gave Labour a six-point lead over the Conservatives; Survation for the Daily Mirror put Labour four ahead; and TNS had the party three ahead.

. . . .

YouGov for the Sunday Times had the parties neck and neck, while YouGov for the Sun gave Labour a three-point lead.

Taking in the ICM result, the Guardian’s updated average of recent polls puts the Tories on 33.7% and Labour on 33.6%. Support for the Lib Dems has edged up slightly, with Nick Clegg’s party on 8.2%. Ukip continues to gradually shed support and is now on 13.3% compared with 15% at the beginning of the year. The Greens are on 5.3%.

 

NDPP

Artist Taxi Driver Interviews Liz Crow : UK's Excruciating Austerity

https://youtu.be/O21MD04FhH0

'We Are Figures'

https://twitter.com/rgplizcrow

'650 narratives of austerity'

NorthReport
NorthReport

Could SNP's strength cost Labour the election?

SNP has almost doubled lead over Labour in Scotland, poll shows

Support grows for Nicola Sturgeon with 52% of decided voters pledging to vote SNP, giving party 28-point lead over Labour

Nicola Sturgeon  SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said her party would ‘put an end to Westminster austerity’. Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/snp-has-almost-doubled-l...

NorthReport
montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

If the Tories are at 39%, and given all the other parties in the race, I think they are in slim majority territory. It could be an outlier poll.

The Tory Party calling itself the party of the working people is an old gaffe.

6079_Smith_W

Nigel Farage relaxing at The Jolly Racist

Northern PoV

Depression Alert: Recent electoral results from here and there....

Australia: Harper Clone (and they have a PR not FPTP system)

New Zealand: Harper Clone (He won 50%+ in their PR (not FPTP) system)

Israel: Harper Mentor (PR system there too)

UK:  Harper clone maybe headed for re-election in their messy FPTP system?

Democracy and even PR voting systems are trumped by media control, it seems.  Lets try and make Canada the exception.

josh

Northern PoV wrote:

Depression Alert: Recent electoral results from here and there....

Australia: Harper Clone (and they have a PR not FPTP system)

New Zealand: Harper Clone (He won 50%+ in their PR (not FPTP) system)

Israel: Harper Mentor (PR system there too)

UK:  Harper clone maybe headed for re-election in their messy FPTP system?

Democracy and even PR voting systems are trumped by media control, it seems.  Lets try and make Canada the exception.

 

Cameron's not as bad as Harper.  And Netanyahu is much worse.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

montrealer58 wrote:

josh wrote:

Northern PoV wrote:

Depression Alert: Recent electoral results from here and there....

Australia: Harper Clone (and they have a PR not FPTP system)

New Zealand: Harper Clone (He won 50%+ in their PR (not FPTP) system)

Israel: Harper Mentor (PR system there too)

UK:  Harper clone maybe headed for re-election in their messy FPTP system?

Democracy and even PR voting systems are trumped by media control, it seems.  Lets try and make Canada the exception.

 

Cameron's not as bad as Harper.  And Netanyahu is much worse.

UK Ally and fellow Anglophone country USA: HILLARY CLINTON WHO SUPPORTED THE GENOCIDE OF 1,000,000 IRAQI PEOPLE. How many people are going to be exterminated when she becomes president?

The question is, why do Anglophones in general support these mass-murderers?

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

++

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

montrealer58 wrote:

UK Ally and fellow Anglophone country USA: HILLARY CLINTON WHO SUPPORTED THE GENOCIDE OF 1,000,000 IRAQI PEOPLE. How many people are going to be exterminated when she becomes president?

The question is, why do Anglophones in general support these mass-murderers?

Obviously, the reasons are historical, as with any question one might ask about why certain groups of people behave in certain ways. People behave the way they do because of their interactions with the world into which they are born. That world in turn is the product of all of the history that led up to it, from the paleolithic onwards. In this particular case, the most important recent historical factors are the dominance of the British Empire in the 18th and 19th centuries, and its smooth replacement by the U.S. Empire in the 20th.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
The question is, why do Anglophones in general support these mass-murderers?

Maybe they have other planks in their platform besides "Oh, and don't forget I supported the invasion of Iraq eleven years ago."

Or maybe it's just something about the English language that brings out the worst in people.

6079_Smith_W

When it is Morrissey singing in it, absolutely. Makes me want to squash kittens every time I hear that guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49lPGmnYDw4

(okay, not really him)

 

 

NorthReport

The Cons are starting to pull ahead.

Cons - 286

Lab - 271

SNP - 43

LIB - 26

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

 

NDPP

Sputnik: Episode 071 (and vid) George Galloway MP etc

http://rt.com/shows/sputnik/244605-uk-blair-malcolmx-murder/

"A sensational new book, 'Blair Inc: The Man Behind the Mask' tours the horizon of Britain's most controversial prime minister. Francis Beckett, co-author of Blair Inc, a Labour man and one of the country's leading Blair-ologists, joins Sputnik to tell us about the private dealings of Tony Blair..."

NorthReport
NorthReport

Interesting that Cameron just didn't even bother to show up for the BBC debate.   Frown

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

I think Cameron would have annoyed his supporters if he appeared on the BBC.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

C - 280

L - 277

SNP - 42

LD - 27

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

This has it Labour 282 Tories 280, with the SNP at 48.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

terrytowel

Interesting that strategic voting is called "Tactitcal Voting" in the UK

They have the same voting problems we do!

NorthReport

'Adorable' Ed Miliband mobbed by Chester hen party as approval ratings continue to soar

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/adorable-e...

NorthReport
josh

Poll that last week had Tories up 39-33, now has them up 34-32.  Clearly, last week's poll was an outlier.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/20/tories-still-ahead-labour-latest-guardian-icm-poll

NorthReport

Looks like Conservatives are pulling away from Labour

Cons - 283

Lab - 269

SNP - 47

LD - 26

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Looks like Conservatives are pulling away from Labour

Cons - 283

Lab - 269

SNP - 47

LD - 26

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

One should bear in mind that the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the SDLP, and the Greens have all said they are going to vote against the Conservatives and support Labour. So it would make sense to include all the parties when predicting who has the greatest chance of forming the next government. If Labour, the SDP, Plaid Cymru, the SDLP, and Greens end up with more than 322 seats, Labour will most likely form the next government. It should also be mentioned that the Liberal Democrats have also said that they are open to being in a coalition with Labour.

josh
6079_Smith_W

Britain’s criminally stupid attitudes to race and immigration are beyond parody

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/20/britain-criminally-...

NorthReport

Conservatives appear to be pulling away

Cons - 286 seats

Lab - 267 seats

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

josh
JKR
NorthReport

Polls starting to show a sift in favour of the Conservatives, one pollster now show Cameron with a 6% lead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom...

NorthReport
JKR

According to the talking head on the tele, the next prime minister will most assuredly be Ed Milliband if Labour and the SNP together win 314 or more seats.

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