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JKR

All the betting sites are currently favouring a Labour government. The odds being given for Milliband to be the next PM are currently aproximately 60%.

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics#politics-british-p...

http://www.onlinebetting.com/odds-converter/

NorthReport

Labour's Scottish leader predicts Cameron will 'remain as PM' as new poll predicts SNP will win all seats north of the border

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-el...

josh

Tories aren't gaining seats, Labour is losing seats to the SNP.

NorthReport

But who will SNP support?

Policywonk

Not the Conservatives.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

But who will SNP support?

The SNP have said they will support Labour. Labour has said they will not enter into a coalition with the SNP but have not ruled out working with the SNP on a case by case basis. So if Labour and the SNP end up with more than 314 seats there will likely be a Labour minority government.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/calling-the-tune

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/labour-would-accept-snp-support-on-a-v...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

David Cameron's "(Tory)Conference Rap" (as assembled by someone calling himself "Cassette Boy")

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YBumQHPAeU

(If I were running the Labour campaign, I'd ask permission to use this in the last Labour "election broadcasts") 

 

 

josh

Final Guardian projection is for Labour and the Tories to each have 273 seats.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-...

Another has it Tories 281 Labour 276

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

JKR

All the betting sites are currently giving almost exactly even odds for either Milliband or Cameron to be the next P.M.

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics#politics-british-p...

http://www.onlinebetting.com/odds-converter/

JKR

josh wrote:

Final Guardian projection is for Labour and the Tories to each have 273 seats.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-...

Another has it Tories 281 Labour 276

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

I think you have to include the SNP in order to be able to predict whether Milliband or Cameron are going to end up forming a government. The rule of thumb I've heard being used is that if Labour and the SNP end up with 315 or more seats, Milliband will likely be the next P.M because the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the SDLP, and the Greens have all said they will oppose a Conservative led government. The key number I will be looking at will be anything over 315 seats for Labour and the SNP.

Most of these sites are predicting that the Conservatives will come in first place and Labour will come in second but more importantly that Labour and the SNP wIll get over 317 seats that would likely lead to a Milliband Labour government.

JKR
NorthReport

Polls close in less than 30 minutes

Will SNP be the kingmaker and who will they ally with?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKFTtYx2OHc

NorthReport
NorthReport

If the polls are correct, there will be an intense battle for public opinion. The parties have lined up their frontbenchers, including Ed Balls for Labour and Michael Gove for the Tories, to take to the airwaves for the key two hours after polling stations close at 10pm.

Senior Labour sources have already claimed the party is preparing to fight any attempt by Cameron to declare victory as leader of the largest party even if he does not have enough seats to command a majority.

Miliband is thought to have more paths to a majority with the help of the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and/or the Greens. He has spent the last two days repeatedly dodging questions about what he will do if he narrowly finishes second.

In a final plea to people to vote for Labour, he said: “If you do that today, then tomorrow you won’t have to wake up to the news that five years of the Tories has turned into a Tory decade – a decade where only the privileged few will do well, where there will be one rule for a few and another for everyone else. So the stakes are high in these crucial hours.”

Labour aides have said they take the same position as constitutional experts, who say there is no law giving the leader of the largest party the right to govern. “The rules are the rules” regardless of the political argument about legitimacy that Cameron may make, one Labour adviser said.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/election-2015-labour-and...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Should be out in 10 minutes I think.

Exit poll: What is it and how accurate has it been in the past?

In 2010 the exit poll was very accurate, under-predicting Labour’s seat share by three and over-predicting the Liberal Democrats by two.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/exit-poll-...

NorthReport

Jeremy Heywood: The man who will help form a government in the case of a hung Parliament

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/jeremy-hey...

NorthReport

538 forecast for UK election

Cons - 278

Lab - 267

SNP - 53

LD - 27

NorthReport
NorthReport

Much be concern in Labour camp about the exit polls.

NorthReport

First results supposedly in 5 minutes

mark_alfred

I checked out the live results link that JKR gave, but there's nothing on it yet.  Any idea when some results will start to be tabulated?

NorthReport

Sunderland South first results in Labour increased their margin of victory  however exit poll spokesperson said this is Northeast and was expected. Labour will have problems elsewhere according to him. 

L-D lost their deposit paying price for supporting Cameron

NorthReport
JKR

JKR wrote:

All the betting sites are currently giving almost exactly even odds for either Milliband or Cameron to be the next P.M.

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics#politics-british-p...

http://www.onlinebetting.com/odds-converter/

According to the betting sites Cameron has won the election and will lead a minority government or lead another coalition with the Liberal Democrats. According to the betting sites it will be another hung parliament.

NorthReport

THE BBC spokepeople seem quite obnoxious - are they right-wingers?

JKR

Labour is projected to win just 250 seats or so.

The SNP is projected to win 54 seats. So Labour and the SNP together have 304 seats, 10 less they needed to oust the Conservative government.

JKR

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win just 15 seats! A tiny amount but enough to put the Conservatives over the top.

JKR

The Conservatives are projected to win somewhere between 304 and 311 seats. Less than a majority but a comfortable minority.

NorthReport

Exit Poll 

Cons - 316, up 9 seats

Lab - 239, down 19

SNP - 58, up 52

LIb-Dem - 10, down 47

323 seats required for majority

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

This is a good lesson for Canadian Liberals. Keep supporting the Conservatives, and you will eventually lose your deposit.

Debater

You just did had to get in your daily crack at the Canadian Liberals, eh, Montrealer58? Wink

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Liberals are Liberals, and they make slimy deals with Conservatives, wherever they may be.

Debater

Exit poll: Conservatives to be largest party

The Conservatives are forecast to be the largest party with 316 seats, the BBC exit poll predicts, with Labour winning 239, the SNP 58, Lib Dems 10, Plaid Cymru 4, UKIP 2 and the Green Party 2. 

 

Debater

3 of 650 seats reporting so far.

Appear to be 3 Labour Holds.

No changes so far.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results

 

JKR

montrealer58 wrote:

This is a good lesson for Canadian Liberals. Keep supporting the Conservatives, and you will eventually lose your deposit.

It looks like the Liberal Democrats won't even have enough seats to be in another coalition with the Conservatives. So a Conservative minority government is the likely outcome of the election. The Conservatives will probably call another election within the next 5 years if they feel they can get a majority.

Debater

NATE SILVER Predictions:

Conservatives 272

Labour 271

SNP 53

Liberal Democrats 27

Plaid Cymru 4

UKIP 2

Greens 1

http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/

Debater

montrealer58 wrote:

Liberals are Liberals, and they make slimy deals with Conservatives, wherever they may be.

The Liberal Democrats are actually the equivalent to the NDP, whereas Labour is the equivalent to the Liberals.

So it was the farthest-left party in the UK which chose to boost up the Conservatives.

But I agree with you that Nick Clegg will pay the price for it.

Debater

Nate Silver is updating his numbers based on new data coming in:

Conservatives 279

Labour 265

SNP 53

Liberal Democrats 27

Plaid Cymru 4

UKIP 2

Greens 1

http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/

Debater

This Map is going to take a long time to fill in.  LOL.

UK are the slowest counters in the business.  They do it the traditional way of lining up all the candidates on stage in each riding and reading out the results.

Only 8 of 650 seats in . . .

http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results

mark_alfred

I've heard that the Conservatives will likely do better than expected, and Labour will do worse than expected, based upon the exit polls.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The British system of running all the boxes to a central regional counting station is slower. Here were count them at the polling stations and the results are sent into central. 

NorthReport

This looks like it is going to be a very sad nite for Brits based on bullshit right wing myths that get shoved at them 24/7 in the msp. Cameron may even get a majority

JKR

mark_alfred wrote:

I've heard that the Conservatives will likely do better than expected, and Labour will do worse than expected, based upon the exit polls.

Now I'm just hoping that the Conservatives don't win an outright majority. It looks like they have a chance of getting one.

NorthReport

Watching these right-wingers win another election across the pond is a real downer. 

It was so refreshing to watch the returns coming in on Tuesday nite in Alberta and to see all the right-wing, the Liberals, the Conservatives and the Greens get crushed. Hopefully it can be replicated when we go to the polls nationally in October.

Does anyone think for one second if Rachel had not got a majority on Tuesday she would even be Premier-elect now?

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

It seems like the movement is that much of the Tory vote split off to the UKIP, and Lib Dem voters have picked the Tories to stop the UKIP. Again, Liberals voted Conservative.

It now looks like an outright majority for the Tories, with Battersea and one in Wales going Tory. These are bad hits on Labour.

josh

-

The Lib Dem vote has collapsed and the Tories are getting the lion's share of their vote.

Debater

Seems to me we have seen this story before.   In Canada.  The 2011 Federal Election.

When a left-wing party is unable to appeal to centrist & conservative voters, those voters often choose a more right-wing alternative.  The collapse of the center then ends up benefitting the conservatives.

Debater

As CPC strategists such as Gerry Nicholls and Tom Flanagan have said, Harper wants to eliminate the Liberals because he views the NDP as a weaker opponent and feels that they would have a lot of trouble beating the Conservatives (as they did in 2011.)

But having said that, I've given up on trying to predict the outcome of the 2015 Federal Election, and will no longer be suggesting that people vote Liberal as the main way of beating the Harper Cons.

The provincial Alberta NDP win, while having nothing to do with Mulcair, obviously has already caused the Federal NDP to claim that they can beat the Cons even though they failed to do so in 2011.  Meanwhile, the Liberals, who had a good opportunity at one point of beating the Harper Cons, have lost their way recently, particularly on Bill C-51, and are no longer the force they once were.

In conclusion, I've reached the point where if the NDP & the Liberals each want to fight it out and each claim that they can beat the Cons, I no longer care what the outcome is.  Let them fight it out and let the chips fall where they may.

Harper may end up being the big winner.

Or maybe there will be a surprise and he will end up a loser like Prentice.

Policywonk

This is the or perhaps another exit poll. I don't know if Labour should be written off just yet.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/596424816879611904

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