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Policywonk

There are two polls, the bbc poll and the yougov poll.

 

josh

Policywonk wrote:

This is the or perhaps another exit poll. I don't know if Labour should be written off just yet.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/596424816879611904

Was misidentified as an exit poll. It wasn't.

NorthReport

So are we once again having a major fail by polling companies?

It certainly appears so.

 

JKR

If Labour, the SLP, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, and the Greens, get a majority of the seats, they'll have enough seats in the UK House of Commins to prevent a referendum on leaving the E.U.

Debater

Does BBC appear to have a pro-Conservative slant?

That's what it appears like to me.

NorthReport

Another right-wing government and it may push the Scots over the edge.

It's a shame once again to see the people lose out to the big money interests.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Another right-wing government and it may push the Scots over the edge.

It looks like Scottish independence will be greatly strengthened tonight if the SNP win almost all of Scotland's seats. And if the Conservatives have a referendum on being in the EU, Scotland will likely have another referendum on staying in the UK.

Debater

I hope that the Green Leader is re-elected in Brighton.

What's going on there?

Debater

Respect's George Galloway has lost in Bradford West to Labour's Naz Shah.

Debater

Labour GAIN Bradford West from George Galloway.

mark_alfred

JKR wrote:

 

Live election results:

http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results

Ah, results are starting to come in.  Labour is ahead so far.

Debater

After 189 of 650 seats

LABOUR (82 seats) a -27% change

CONSERVATIVE (49 seats) a +2% change

SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY (39 seats) a +34% change

DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY (7 seats) a +0% change

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (3 seats) a -9% change

Debater
sherpa-finn

I am not so sure about all the quick analysis: with 40% of the ridings reporting, the only big electoral shifts so far seem to be SNP sweeping Scotland (taking mostly Labour seats) and the evaporation of the Lib-Dem vote (losing to everyone). So not exaclty the huge endorsement of Cameron + Cons or hige rejection of Miliband + Labour as pundits are implying. In fact the left-right balance of seats seems largely unchanged from teh last Parliament.

Maybe things will change when the results start coming in from other parts of England. But I suspect this election won't be settled until tomorrow.

NorthReport

The Cons are going to be very close to getting a majority. 538 is forecasting 320 seats for them right now. They only need 326

Hopefully Labour Leader steps down immediately and saves his party the bloodbath that would ensue if he doesn't.

NorthReport

There will have to be serious constitutional change in the UK if they have any hope of keeping Scotland in.

JKR

Nick Clegg should also resign. His coalition with the Conservatives has almost completely wiped out the LD's.

NorthReport

Milliband looks terrible, but I'm sure once reality sets in, he'll do the right thing. 

Policywonk

Labour seems to be gaining seats outside of Scotland, from the Liberal Democrats, but the Conservatives are also gaining seats from the Liberal Democrats. An effective majority is 323 because Sinn Fein doesn't take their seats. 

sherpa-finn

NR notes that the Cons need 326 seats for a majority in the House, given the total number of 650 seats.

FWIW, the required number for a working majority is slightly less than that, as Sinn Fein regularly elects MPs in Northern Ireland, who then never take their seats in Westminster. In the last Parliament SF had 5 absentee MPs - and three have already been elected tonight.

JKR

The Speaker also doesn't vote so the real # required to control the UK House of Commons is 323.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Milliband looks terrible, but I'm sure once reality sets in, he'll do the right thing. 

He's gone.

NorthReport

Extremely close to majority government being forecasted now

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

The Cons are going to be very close to getting a majority. 538 is forecasting 320 seats for them right now. They only need 326

The Democratic Ulster Unionist Party (DUP) votes with the Conservatives. DUP is expected to win 8 or 9 seats. So the Conservatives will have an effective majority with 316 seats. DUP is fully behind having a referendum on the EU. The biggest outcome of tonight might be that a referendum on leaving the EU will now likely happen. The ramifications of that are huge.

NorthReport

Do the Cons want to leave the EU?

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

There will have to be serious constitutional change in the UK if they have any hope of keeping Scotland in.

I don't think the Conservatives are interested in changing the constitution for Scotland.
In this election the Conservatives have been warning the English that a Labour government would be a puppet government of Scotland and that the English have to vote Conservative if they want to prevent that from happening. That strategy seems to have worked for the Conservatives in this election but it might end up tearing the UK apart. And maybe many Conservatives wouldn't mind Scotland leaving as Scotland is to the left of England.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Do the Cons want to leave the EU?

They want to renegotiate their relationship with the EU and put that new relationship to a vote in the UK. One reason they support an EU Referendum is because UKIP wants out of the EU and they are demanding a referendum. In order to keep Conservative voters from voting for UKIP, the Conservatives have promised a referendum on the EU.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_mem...

Quote:

In January 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron promised an "in/out" referendum on British membership of the European Union in 2017, after a period of renegotiation with the EU, if the Conservative Party wins an outright majority at the general election of May 7, 2015.

NorthReport

538 forecasting 326 seats and majority government

Debater

So, as of now . . .

Conservatives  -> up 17 seats

Labour -> down 29 seats

SNP -> up 49 seats

Liberal Democrats -> down 38 seats

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2015-32594267

Debater

JKR wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

There will have to be serious constitutional change in the UK if they have any hope of keeping Scotland in.

 

I don't think the Conservatives are interested in changing the constitution for Scotland. In this election the Conservatives have been warning the English that a Labour government would be a puppet government of Scotland and that the English have to vote Conservative if they want to prevent that from happening. That strategy seems to have worked for the Conservatives in this election but it might end up tearing the UK apart. And maybe many Conservatives wouldn't mind Scotland leaving as Scotland is to the left of England.

It's interesting to see the surge of the Scottish National Party happening during the same year that the t.v. series "Outlander" has become so popular. Wink

There probably isn't a direct relationship between Diana Gabaldon's popular series and tonight's vote, but it is a reminder nonetheless of the long historical tensions between the Scots & the English and the fact that many Scots still remember the way they were treated.

Debater

Caroline Lucas retains Brighton Pavilion for Green Party.

Debater

If you look at this map of the UK, you can see it coded according to party.

Look at all that yellow across Scotland!  You can see one tiny red dot in South Edinburgh.  That's all that's left of Labour in Scotland.  SNP has swept the rest of the region.

Most of England is Conservative Blue.

Green Party retains their seat in Brighton.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results

Policywonk

Debater wrote:

I hope that the Green Leader is re-elected in Brighton.

What's going on there?

Apparently she got back in.

Policywonk

Debater wrote:

If you look at this map of the UK, you can see it coded according to party.

Look at all that yellow across Scotland!  You can see one tiny red dot in South Edinburgh.  That's all that's left of Labour in Scotland.  SNP has swept the rest of the region.

Most of England is Conservative Blue.

Green Party retains their seat in Brighton.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results

Actually the reason why the Conservatives are doing so well is the collapse of the Liberal Democrats. More of their seats have gone Conservative than Labour, and the Conservatives only needed less than 20 net increase for an effective majority, which it looks like they will get. The map is a bit deceptive as it doesn't reflect population concentrations. Perhaps not as starkly as the Alberta election map, with most of the NDP seats in Calgary and Edmonton. 

TiradeFaction

Policywonk wrote:

Debater wrote:

If you look at this map of the UK, you can see it coded according to party.

Look at all that yellow across Scotland!  You can see one tiny red dot in South Edinburgh.  That's all that's left of Labour in Scotland.  SNP has swept the rest of the region.

Most of England is Conservative Blue.

Green Party retains their seat in Brighton.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results

Actually the reason why the Conservatives are doing so well is the collapse of the Liberal Democrats. More of their seats have gone Conservative than Labour, and the Conservatives only needed less than 20 net increase for an effective majority, which it looks like they will get. The map is a bit deceptive as it doesn't reflect population concentrations. Perhaps not as starkly as the Alberta election map, with most of the NDP seats in Calgary and Edmonton. 

So why did so many Liberal Democrat seats flip to the Conservatives? Most LD voters felt betrayed and punished the LDs. So why would it go to the senior coalition partner in the government they detested?

Debater

Interesting that next door to BRIGHTON PAVILION in the HOVE constitutency, the collapse of the Lib Dem vote allowed Labour to Gain the seat from the Cons:

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/E14000755

bekayne

Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls loses seat

Helen Pidd

Ed Balls speaks to other delegates during the recount in Morley and Outwood. Ed Balls speaks to other delegates during the recount in Morley and Outwood. Photograph: Craig Brough/Reuters

The shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, has lost his Morley and Outwood seat, becoming the highest profile Labour casualty of a terrible election night for the party.

Balls, who has been an MP since 2005, failed to defend his 1,101 majority in the face of a stealth ground campaign from the Conservative party.

The Tory candidate Andrea Jenkyns was declared the winner after parties “mutually agreed” a recount at around 7am. Rumours had swirled since polls closed that the Tories were feeling confident about their chances. Balls disappeared before midnight and surfaced grim-faced at 7am to receive the news that he was behind on around 260 after the first count.

Forty-year-old Jenkyns, a music teacher and amateur opera singer, has essentially been campaigning full time since her selection in April 2013. She even quit her job in a secondary school and sold her house in Boston, Lincolnshire, moving back home with her mother Valerie in order to dedicate herself to defenestrating Balls.

Selling herself as “non-politician” from humble beginnings, Jenkyns didn’t go to university and she worked her way up from being a Saturday shop girl to a senior retail manager.

In her late 30s she decided to retrain and has recently achieved an Open University degree in international relations and politics. On her website she describes herself as “an upfront, direct, and strong Yorkshire lass who passionately stands up for what she believes in.”

Her father was a lorry driver who built up his own haulage business. He died a few years ago after contracting the superbug MRSA in hospital in 2011 - it was this tragedy which spurred her on to run for parliament.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/08/election-2015-live-...

Debater

Policywonk wrote:

Debater wrote:

I hope that the Green Leader is re-elected in Brighton.

What's going on there?

Apparently she got back in.

Yes, Caroline Lucas won comfortably for the Greens in BRIGHTON PAVILION and increased the Green share by 10 points.

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/E14000598

Debater

LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD, like HOVE, is another constituency previously held by the Cons where the collapse of the Lib Dem vote went to Labour in large enough numbers to flip the seat from Con to Lab:

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/E14000776

Debater

So although Labour lost ground in the UK (particularly in Scotland obviously) the silver lining is that they still picked up some seats.

And the total collapse of the Lib Dems could be a warning to other centrist & center-left parties that if they help the Conservatives to govern, they may pay the price from progressive voters later on.

There is a warning here to the Canadian Liberals.  The Trudeau Liberals have lost a lot of progressive voters over their support of Bill C-51.  I have seen a number of Liberal-NDP swing voters who were previously in the Trudeau camp switch to the Mulcair NDP this month.

JKR

Debater wrote:

JKR wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

There will have to be serious constitutional change in the UK if they have any hope of keeping Scotland in.

 

I don't think the Conservatives are interested in changing the constitution for Scotland. In this election the Conservatives have been warning the English that a Labour government would be a puppet government of Scotland and that the English have to vote Conservative if they want to prevent that from happening. That strategy seems to have worked for the Conservatives in this election but it might end up tearing the UK apart. And maybe many Conservatives wouldn't mind Scotland leaving as Scotland is to the left of England.

It's interesting to see the surge of the Scottish National Party happening during the same year that the t.v. series "Outlander" has become so popular. Wink

There probably isn't a direct relationship between Diana Gabaldon's popular series and tonight's vote, but it is a reminder nonetheless of the long historical tensions between the Scots & the English and the fact that many Scots still remember the way they were treated.

It looks like nationalism has trumped other considerations in this election. It seems to me that the Conservatives played the nationalism card and it won them the election and now they are going to have to govern with the consequences of doing so. The Conservatives and UKIP won well over half the vote in England and the SNP won over half of the votes in Scotland squeezing out Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the process.

bekayne

2m ago09:23

Ed Miliband to resign, Guardian understands

The Guardian’s political editor, Patrick Wintour, confirms that the Labour leader is expected to stand down shortly.

 

JKR

Debater wrote:

So although Labour lost ground in the UK (particularly in Scotland obviously) the silver lining is that they still picked up some seats.

And the total collapse of the Lib Dems could be a warning to other centrist & center-left parties that if they help the Conservatives to govern, they may pay the price from progressive voters later on.

There is a warning here to the Canadian Liberals.  The Trudeau Liberals have lost a lot of progressive voters over their support of Bill C-51.  I have seen a number of Liberal-NDP swing voters who were previously in the Trudeau camp switch to the Mulcair NDP this month.

When the LD's agreed to form a coalition with the Conservatives five years ago, very many people thought then that the LD's were going to be decimated in this election because of making that decision. For over 4 years the LD's have been hovering under 10% in the polls so their fate today should come as no surprise.

But looking back at the situation they found themselves in after the last election, it is hard to see what the LD's should have done instead of what they did. They could have formed a very unwieldy coalition government with Labour and the nationalist parties but that would have required cooperating with the separatist SNP and even then they would have had a majority of only a couple of seats or so.

The LPC here in Canada could find itself in a similar situation that the LD's were in in 2010 if the CPC gets a strong minority with over 165 seats and the NDP comes in a weak second. Would the LPC form a coalition with the 2nd place NDP if it required outside support from the BQ? Hopefully the LPC would but that would have negative consequences for the LPC, as would propping up a CPC government.

josh

Looks like the Tories will end up with a majority, 330 seats, with 37% of the vote. 1% more than last time. Labour will get only 232 seats even though their vote, 31%, is up 1% over last time. The joy of FPTP in a five-way race.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

In Scotland, there was a rout of all Unionist parties. This broke the back of Labour's chances.

Even last night, Labour showed it could snatch a Tory riding in England. The problem is that the Tories were better at the reverse.

If more Lib-Dem voters had gone Labour, the deal with the SNP would have gone through. If even more Lib-Dem voters went Labour, Labour would have had a majority.

There is no evidence that Labour lost votes to Ukip. In England, the number of Labour votes went up.

It looks like a lot of Tories went Ukip, and a lot of Lib-Dems went Tory to stop that from happening.

Also, the Tories have become much more generally Eurosceptic, which neuters much Ukip and Labour sentiment.

In Canada and the UK, Liberal votes are up for grabs. They way they shift can have a huge effect, as we saw in Alberta, and now last night in the UK.

Despite his loss and resignation, Ed Miliband has not left the Labour Party in bad shape. He ran a good campaign, and contributed to an increase in the popular vote. Unfortnately other parties were better able to capitalize on that than him.

josh

It was Lib Dem votes going to the Tories in England that gave the majority.  Even with an additional 56 seats in Scottland. Labour would have had less than 300 seats.

And it's pretty hard to conclude that Millband has left the party in good shape when its vote merely went up from 29% to 31%

 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

It woudn't have happened if Liberals had voted Labour. Even if the Liberal vote had held, Labour would have got more votes than the Conservatives in many seats, and we might be looking at a Lib-Lab coalition, which they had when I was living there.

Miliband did better in the popular vote than Brown did. Maybe the next one will do better than that. Labour it seems still has some recovery to do from the Blair-Brown years.

The new Labour leader won't be fighting against Cameron in 2020, we already know that.

Policywonk

montrealer58 wrote:

In Scotland, there was a rout of all Unionist parties. This broke the back of Labour's chances.

Even last night, Labour showed it could snatch a Tory riding in England. The problem is that the Tories were better at the reverse.

If more Lib-Dem voters had gone Labour, the deal with the SNP would have gone through. If even more Lib-Dem voters went Labour, Labour would have had a majority.

There is no evidence that Labour lost votes to Ukip. In England, the number of Labour votes went up.

It looks like a lot of Tories went Ukip, and a lot of Lib-Dems went Tory to stop that from happening.

Also, the Tories have become much more generally Eurosceptic, which neuters much Ukip and Labour sentiment.

In Canada and the UK, Liberal votes are up for grabs. They way they shift can have a huge effect, as we saw in Alberta, and now last night in the UK.

Despite his loss and resignation, Ed Miliband has not left the Labour Party in bad shape. He ran a good campaign, and contributed to an increase in the popular vote. Unfortnately other parties were better able to capitalize on that than him.

Obviously the campaign was not good enough to attract more Liberal Democratic voters than the Conservatives. The Labour vote share went up in the UK as a whole so they have something to build from, but the prospects look dim. Proportional Representation (depending on the degree of proportionality) would have given the Conservatives and the UKIP almost 50% of the seats, but then again with people having more incentive to vote for other parties such as the Greens to get them past whatever electoral threshold is in place the results might look somewhat different. 

josh

Given the choice between austerity-lite and austerity, voters opted for the real thing.

under Miliband the party never effectively challenged the Tory narrative about the deficit. How could it, since it clearly accepted the Tory premise that, despite Britain retaining sovereignty over its currency, and even though Britain can currently borrow at historically low rates, the country was still somehow so much at risk of going the way of Greece or Ireland as to require a “triple lock” on spending. Every time Ed Miliband hummed a vaguely populist tune on the economy, Ed Balls, his shadow chancellor, would break into a rousing chorus of “No new spending.” (Watching Balls go down to defeat was one of the day’s few compensations.) The only politician to confront the austerity con head-on was Nicola Sturgeon—and look where that got her.

http://www.thenation.com/blog/206729/fear-wins-big-britain

NorthReport

That makes sense josh

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