United Kingdom including European Parliament Election Results

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josh

nicky wrote:

The results so indicate a lead for the unambiguous Remain part is over the unambiguous Leave parties, at least in the popular vote.

Brexit 31.6% + UKIP 3.3 = 34.9

LibDem 20.3 + Gr 12.1 + SNP 3.5 + Plaid 1.0 + ChUK 3.4 = 40.3

polls have shown that 80% of Labour’s voters favour Remain ( 14.1 x 80 = 11.3) as well as 1/3 of Conservative voters (9.1 x.33 = 3)

that gets the Remain vote up to 54.6%, which is very consistent with recent polls.

Some 13 million fewer people voted in this election than voted in the referendum.  So your effort to extrapolate something meaningful from this vote, including overestimating the Conservative vote for reamain, and probably underestimating the Labour support for leave, is for naught.

JKR

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Would a very soft Brexit satisfy most Leavers?

Would officially leaving NATO, but continuing to supply them with troops, expertise and resources satisfy those who want Canada out of NATO?  What if it was "way less" troops and stuff?

Unlike Brexit, leaving NATO would most likely not include a “soft” option, a “hard” option, and a no-deal option. A vote on leaving NATO would be clear question unlike Brexit which has turned out to be a very complicated process with many nuances and permutations.

NorthReport

Brexit is a Conservative undertaking.

This is not a working class revolt.

josh

The vote on the EU was clear.  It’s those who have refused to accept the verdict from day one who have muddied the waters.

quizzical

so how did the labour party do were they wiped out?

NorthReport

The tragic irony in all this is that Brexit is Farage's baby, and he got the most votes today because he went around the country blaming others why Brexit has not happened.  

1 Brexit Party - 31.7%

2 Lib Dem - 18.6%

3 Lab - 14.1%

4 Grn - 11.1%

5 Con - 8.7%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

The results so indicate a lead for the unambiguous Remain part is over the unambiguous Leave parties, at least in the popular vote.

Brexit 31.6% + UKIP 3.3 = 34.9

LibDem 20.3 + Gr 12.1 + SNP 3.5 + Plaid 1.0 + ChUK 3.4 = 40.3

polls have shown that 80% of Labour’s voters favour Remain ( 14.1 x 80 = 11.3) as well as 1/3 of Conservative voters (9.1 x.33 = 3)

that gets the Remain vote up to 54.6%, which is very consistent with recent polls.

None of which matters, since no Tory government will call a referendum with Remain as an option.  The only reason you're pushing for Corbyn to go all-0ut Remain is that you want to cost him all the Labour Leave votes.  

The EU question is settled.  What matters is getting the Tories out. If you cared about that, you wouldn't have spent the last four years demonizing the person most likely to get them out, since nobody to that person's right as leader can get young voters to the polls and since Labour can't win if young voters are treated like any Labour "moderate" would treat them.

nicky

Ken, if what matters is getting the Tories out, then Corbyn’s leadership is the main impediment.

he could not damage the Labour Party more if he were a CIA plant.

Wait!! That explains everything.

nicky

“The main culprit, of course, is Jeremy Corbyn and the immoveable ideologes around him. This morning, many of the usual faces will agitate for the party to keep its current trajectory. Seamus Milne, Len McCluskey, Caroline Flint, Lisa Nandy, and many others. They are of various degrees of quality and principle. McCluskey is thoughtless, irresponsible, and acts contrary to the values he claims to represent. Nandy is pensive and clearly pained by the moment. But it doesn't really matter. This is a unique historical moment, the kind we will not live through again. It requires bravery and recognition. We will all be judged by it in the end.

There is no point wishing for it to go away. Brexit is happening. It is fundamentally a yes-or-no question. There is no point saying that you want to talk about social justice, or that a many vs few 'hinge' is better than an open vs closed one for Labour. That is like a man in an earthquake saying he'd like to talk about Star Wars. It is irrelevant. Brexit is destroying Britain. Opposing it overrules all other considerations.

Labour's complacency on this issue, it's total absence, is now pounding it into the earth. Pushed into a dismal third place behind the Lib Dems. Down to 14.1% vote share after nine years in opposition. Down to third in Wales. Seemingly wiped out in Scotland. Labour was even beaten into second place in Corbyn's own constituency of Islington. The party is dying. Brexiters are suffocating it.”

https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/05/27/european-elections-remain-triumphant

NDPP

Communists Boycott EU Election

https://twitter.com/CPBritain/status/1131229565391724544

"EU rules would halt a future Labour government's policies for public investment in industry and infrastructure including housing and public transport ) an end to privatisation and outsourcing, cuts in VAT and action on the super-exploitation of migrant workers...

Big business has never agreed with the result of the 2016 referendum. Our rulers hope that the daily Brexit scare stories will frighten us into staying in the EU..."

NDPP

'Brings Me No Pleasure...'

https://twitter.com/CMonehen/status/1132965547681964032

People don't like having their democratic decisions ignored and subverted. 'Let's Go WTO!' 'Full BREXIT NOW'

swallow swallow's picture

"Let's go WTO"? Seriously? Surely if anything is more neoliberal than the EU, it is the WTO?

josh

WTO doesn’t control your domestic economic policy at least.

NDPP

Yes, the WTO is neoliberal but it's a lesser evil choice than the EU perhaps.

Why We Should Leave the EU on WTO Terms

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/01/07/why-we-should-leave-the-eu-on-w...

"Free from the rules of Brussels, a future Labour government could  support an ambitious wealth-generating strategy through interventions in the economy or into specific sectors [like saving British Steel!] to support job creation and to stimulate industry. Existing EU state-aid rules heavily restrict a government's ability to pursue national collective investment. WTO terms are far more preferable to Labour voters and to the country as a whole..."

Aristotleded24

For a different twist on the EU elections:

Quote:
The Green Wave has swept across Europe. We want to thank everyone who has voted for change and climate action," Ska Keller, a German MEP and one of the Greens' leading candidates for European Commission president, said in a statement Sunday following four days of continent-wide voting.

"This trust given to us by voters is both a task and a responsibility to put green polices into action," said Keller.

As The Guardian reported, the "Greens' surge was strongest in Germany, where Die Grünen finished second behind Angela Merkel's center-right CDU with almost 21 percent of the vote, according to provisional estimates—nearly double their 2014 total."

Greens also had strong showings in Finland, France, and Ireland on the back of higher-than-usual voter turnout.

"Finland's Greens... came second with 16 percent of the vote, while in a major upset, Europe Écologie-Les Verts, led by a former senior Greenpeace figure, came third in France with 13.3 percent, up from 8.9 percent," according to The Guardian. "Against all expectations, a Portuguese Green Party won its first European parliamentary seat."

Projections Sunday indicated that, overall, Greens secured 71 seats in the European Parliament—up from 52 seats five years ago. According to exit polling, the Greens' surge was bolstered by strong support from young voters.

NorthReport

Yes the Greens appear to be the biggest winners

nicky
NorthReport

 

EU gives Nigel Farage 24 hours to explain Arron Banks funds

European parliament summons Brexit party leader over failure to declare expenses

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/04/eu-gives-nigel-farage-24-hours-to-explain-arron-banks-funds

Pogo Pogo's picture

And of course Aaron Banks is tied to serious financial irregularity in the Leave campaign.

NorthReport
josh

Word is Labour may have hung on by 500 votes or so.

josh
NorthReport

Great news tonite in the UK

Maybe Trump's talk about privatizing the NHS did its job, eh!

Peterborough by-election: Labour beats Brexit Party to hold seat

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48532869

NorthReport

Peterborough apparently is a bellweather riding as well!

josh

Tories with their worst result in the constituency since 1886.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1136804308723404800

nicky

Any claim thatPeterborough was a good result for Labour is like Trump pretending he won by the biggest margin in 50 years. Whistling past the graveyard.

labour’s vote fell from 23,000 to 10,000. Its percentage from 48 to 31%. 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

Any claim thatPeterborough was a good result for Labour is like Trump pretending he won by the biggest margin in 50 years. Whistling past the graveyard.

labour’s vote fell from 23,000 to 10,000. Its percentage from 48 to 31%. 


Would have been a drop in the Labour share under any leader, and the drop would have been just as deep if not deeper if Labour had centered the unwinnable fight to force the Tories to allow a vote on a referendum with Remain as an option.  We've know the whole time the Tories will never allow that vote and can't be made to, so it's pointless to keep attacking Corbyn for not undemocratically changing party policy to center that hopeless, pointless fight.

What matters is that the new Tory leader will essentially be obliged to call a snap election, which means it's once again for Labour to have a leadership change, even if there was any other possible leader who could possibly unite the party-so, for the good of the party, for there to be any chance of saving the NHS, all attacks on Corbyn need to stop.  

Nothing would be improved if Tom Watson got his way and Corbyn were replaced by somebody who spoke in empty centrist soundbites.

josh

nicky wrote:

Any claim thatPeterborough was a good result for Labour is like Trump pretending he won by the biggest margin in 50 years. Whistling past the graveyard.

labour’s vote fell from 23,000 to 10,000. Its percentage from 48 to 31%. 

And the Conservative vote dropped from 47 to 21.

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
Any claim thatPeterborough was a good result for Labour is like Trump pretending he won by the biggest margin in 50 years. Whistling past the graveyard.

labour’s vote fell from 23,000 to 10,000. Its percentage from 48 to 31%.

Did you notice that it was the Brexit Party, not the Conservatives, who were the main challengers to Labour in that seat? What does the rapid rise of the Brexit Party in the polls to the point of challenging for first place tell you about how people really feel about Brexit?

nicky

One thing the results tell me, Aristotle, is that pblic sentiment for Brexit is waning. 

In the referendum 61% voted Leave in Peterborough. Yeaterday osly 51% voted for the Leave parties (TBP 29; Con 21; UKIP 1)

They also tell me that Labour only won, despite a huge drop in support, because of the right-wing split.

The ostriches will of course delude themselves that this was a massive vindication for Corbyn, but they said that after the EU elections too.

nicky
nicky
josh

Of course the EU Guardian mistakenly assumes that all the Labour vote came from remainers.  Labour won, as Corbyn said, because it focused on austerity, not Brexit.  But Trump's visit might have been the margin of victory as well.

robbie_dee

nicky wrote:

Any claim thatPeterborough was a good result for Labour is like Trump pretending he won by the biggest margin in 50 years. Whistling past the graveyard.

labour’s vote fell from 23,000 to 10,000. Its percentage from 48 to 31%. 

The previous Labour MP, who barely won the seat by about 600 votes over the Conservative in 2017, was convicted and went to jail for "perverting the course of justice" by making fraudulent statements to try to get out of some speeding tickets. She was expelled by Labour and subsequently became the first ever MP to be formally recalled by a petition from her constituents. That kind of thing leaves a bad taste in voters' mouths. Labour was going to bleed votes here regardless of whether Brexit was an issue. The big losers here are the Conservatives, who should have won this seat under any other circumstances but for Nigel Farage eating their lunch.

JKR

It seems to me that the situation in the UK is polarizing more and more into two diametrically opposed camps, Remainers and no-deal Brexiters, even though the largest consensus position is probably a soft Brexit where the UK maintains strong ties to the EU but is independent on the issues of austerity and immigration. I think during the last few years Labour has formally supported a soft Brexit but that has been secondary to using the Brexit situation to cause an election. During this time I think Labour has also placed ending austerity above supporting a soft Brexit. As it turns out I think Labour’s first priority should have been, and still should be, supporting a soft Brexit that maintains mostly the status quo with the EU but allows the UK not to follow the EU’s policies on debt, deficits, and, austerity. I think conservatives like Boris Johnson and Farage are trying to establish a kind of Brexit where the UK will have to always adhere to right-wing austerity policies in order to compete with the EU by having lower tax rates than the rest of Europe. Brexit is part of their plan to turn the UK into a right-wing, low tax, free market, pro-corporations, jurisdiction.

josh

They wouldn't need to leave the EU to do that.

NDPP

"...Are we not going to spend the day using Peterborough to share dodgy maths and bar charts like we did after the European elections? If so then it's Leave 51%, Remain 46%. Are we not doing that? No? How come? Oh..."

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1136893800796884992

 

WATCH: "The EU's brutal treatment of the periphery states show just how far-fetched ideas of remain and reform/rebel really are. The EU doesn't tolerate 'rebellion' it crushes it. @EddieDempsey  #brexit

https://twitter.com/labourleave/status/1136918508732919808

NorthReport

A few factors that contributed to the results

- Conservatives were basically leaderless which helped Labour

- previous MP who was a Labour MP was recalled for the 1st time ever and even went to jail didn’t help Labour

- Trump’s comments about privatizing the NHS just prior to the election helped Labour

Peterborough results

1 Labour 31% Down 17%

2 Brexit 29% Up 29%

3 Conservatives 21%  Down 25%

4 Liberal Democrats 12% Up 9%

5 Grn 3%

By-Election Voted 48%

Previous Election Voted 68%

Brexit Referendum

Leave 61%

Remain 39%

 

JKR

josh wrote:

They wouldn't need to leave the EU to do that.

I don’t think being in the EU allows the UK to have independent trade agreements with other countries. I think people like Farage and Boris Johnson are looking forward to signing the UK up to many right-wing trade agreements.

josh

JKR wrote:

josh wrote:

They wouldn't need to leave the EU to do that.

I don’t think being in the EU allows the UK to have independent trade agreements with other countries. I think people like Farage and Boris Johnson are looking forward to signing the UK up to many right-wing trade agreements.

I don't know what would make a trade agreement right-wing.  They typically don't have worker and environmental protections.

robbie_dee

Rajeev Syal, "Seven Reasons Labour won the Peterborough byelection," The Guardian 7 June, 2019

Quote:

***

4. Labour concentrated on local issues

Voters told Labour it would lose if it fought Peterborough on Brexit, leadership and the economy. So it focused on three issues that have particularly worried local voters: a rising crime rate, the state of local schools, and fly-tipping. This strategy caused some concern, particularly after the EU elections revealed that a single national issue, Brexit, could dominate all others. Before the count on Thursday night, one Labour fixer said: “If we pull this off, it will show that you can run a local campaign and beat a huge national issue. We have policing, fly-tipping and education; they have Brexit, Brexit and more Brexit.”

5. Momentum mobilised hundreds of activists

Despite internal rows over Brexit and tensions between the head of Momentum, Jon Lansman, and Corbyn’s key advisers, the grassroots organisation that swept Corbyn to the top of the party is still a significant force.

Momentum claims it mobilised nearly 1,000 activists to knock on doors or make calls in the runup to the byelection. This included activists carpooled to Peterborough from North Wales, London, Winchester, Leeds, Grantham, Leicester, Brighton, Bretton, Northampton and Norwich. Others made thousands of calls using Momentum’s distributed phone bank system to mobilise local party members and persuade swing voters. More than 300 people canvassed on the Saturday before polling day and 500 knocked on doors on polling day.

Canvassers successfully squeezed the Lib Dem and Green vote on the doorstep by warning that a misplaced vote could give the Brexit party a foothold. One Guardian reader from the city said he had been visited by Ed Miliband and several activists this week imploring him to vote tactically for Labour – and he was won over.

bekayne

NDPP wrote:

"...Are we not going to spend the day using Peterborough to share dodgy maths and bar charts like we did after the European elections? If so then it's Leave 51%, Remain 46%. Are we not doing that? No? How come? Oh..."

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1136893800796884992

 

So in other words, support for leave is declining.

bekayne

The % for the Brexit Party was 1) double what UKIP got in 2015 and 2) half of what Leave got in 2016, basically confirming the Brexiters current standing of around 25% in the polls.  Which seems to be a ceiling for them (they can't squeeze any more blood out of the Tory stone.)

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

One thing the results tell me, Aristotle, is that pblic sentiment for Brexit is waning. 

In the referendum 61% voted Leave in Peterborough. Yeaterday osly 51% voted for the Leave parties (TBP 29; Con 21; UKIP 1)

They also tell me that Labour only won, despite a huge drop in support, because of the right-wing split.

The ostriches will of course delude themselves that this was a massive vindication for Corbyn, but they said that after the EU elections too.

Corbyn never wanted Leave to win the referendum; it's just that he accepted the results as a democratic end to the matter.  And there was never anything he could have said in the referendum campaign that could have turned a Leave victory into a Remain victory; it was one thing to vote Remain on anti-xenophobia grounds, as I did, there was no argument that Corbyn or anyone else could have made that could possibly have turned northern Leave voters into northern Remain voters, because the North and Northeast of England were left out in the cold by EU economic policies.  
That, by itself, guaranteed the Leave victory.  No message by any possible Labour leader could have erased the reality of EU neglect-along with Tory and New Labour neglect-of that region.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

One thing the results tell me, Aristotle, is that pblic sentiment for Brexit is waning. 

In the referendum 61% voted Leave in Peterborough. Yeaterday osly 51% voted for the Leave parties (TBP 29; Con 21; UKIP 1)

They also tell me that Labour only won, despite a huge drop in support, because of the right-wing split.

The ostriches will of course delude themselves that this was a massive vindication for Corbyn, but they said that after the EU elections too.

It doesn't matter what public sentiment is on Brexit when it isn't possible to get a Tory government ever, under any circumstances, to allow the Commons to vote on a referendum with Remain as an option.

Face facts-soft Brexit, which preserves the good of the EU arrangement without chaining the UK forever to the bad, is the best possibility.  It's a waste of time trying to reverse Brexit when it isn't possible and when no good would come of reversing it.  Keeping the immigration parts of the EU-which are its only progressive and positive features-is enough.

NorthReport

It was only a by-election where less than 50% voted

The results deflected Farage’s braying for one nite at least

Nothing has changed as far as leaving the EU is concerned

Support for Remain appears to be growing and Johnson’s leadership combined with the threat of losing the NHS should be enough for moderate UKers to want to pass on Brexit

 

 

NDPP

'Remain and Revolt': A Lame Variation of the Bogus 'Remain and Reform'

https://www.thefullbrexit.com/remain-and-revolt

"...The EU's structure is based around insulating international capital from the vagaries of democratic politics. Reforming them is not therefore a serious socialist or democratic agenda but a liberal fantasy. 

Certainly, the parliamentary Labour Party - even its tiny Corbynista contingent, has no stomach to go into battle not merely against European authorities, but against the British state's own courts..."

Corbyn's Brexit-'soft' (BS) = NO Brexit. It's a politrick to persuade Leavers to vote Labour-Remain. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

josh wrote:

JKR wrote:

josh wrote:

They wouldn't need to leave the EU to do that.

I don’t think being in the EU allows the UK to have independent trade agreements with other countries. I think people like Farage and Boris Johnson are looking forward to signing the UK up to many right-wing trade agreements.

I don't know what would make a trade agreement right-wing.  They typically don't have worker and environmental protections.

So WTF is CETA?

NDPP

USW Submission to the Standing Committee on International Trade Regarding CETA

https://www.usw.ca/news/publications/policy-research-and-submissions/usw...

"...We are troubled by the government's continued effort, despite evidence to the contrary, to brand the CETA as a 'progressive' trade deal...If ratified, CETA will further bind our economy to a currently-flawed global economic system that has not only hurt Canadian workers but which will also undermine our democracy, environment and national autonomy..."

 

Macron Tells Trudeau That France Will Ratify CETA 'ASAP'

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/macron-trudeau-ceta-1.5166152

"Opposition to CETA is particularly strong among nationalists and euro-skeptics..."

Those damn Yellow Vests and 'deplorables' in the way again. Not like Canucklheads who go along with pretty much anything neoliberal or supranational nowdays and certainly don't protest 'free trade' anymore...That was soooo 1980s.

nicky

Ken, it is hard to count the number of times you have repeated the ridiculous nonsense that the Tory government will never allow another referendum. You have never offered any source for this canard which is as false as Boris’ claim that the UK was sending £350 M to Europe every week. So please stop insulting our intelligence and stop repeating this in justification of your Corbynites hagiography.

if you had been payin* any attention to the news you would know:

1. Labour is endorsing this position, despite Corbyn’s incoherent drift on the issue

2. A second referendum was in fac5 voted on in the Commons and failed by a small margin a few weeks ago

3. Public opinion is behind it

4. Several Conservative leadership contenders are now saying it is the only way forward

5. The Conservative government does not control the legislative agenda on this. Speake4Bercow this week made that plain. Indeed this is how the Commons did vote on the issue recently.

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