U.S. Election Prediction Thread

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ghoris
U.S. Election Prediction Thread

 

ghoris

Apologies if there's another thread somewhere else already, but I couldn't find a recent one.
Here are mine:

President

Obama 338 50%
McCain 200 45%

Obama wins all the Kerry states and picks up Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Senate

Democrats 57 (+8)
Republicans 40 (-8)
Independents 2 (NC)
Runoff 1

Democrats gain Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina, and force a runoff in Georgia as neither candidate gets 50%+1 of the vote.

House

Democrats 258 (+25)
Republicans 177 (-25)

[ 03 November 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Obama 51%

McCain 45%

Nader 1%
McKinney 1%

Other 2%

Senate
Dems 61(includes Bernie Sanders)
GOP 38
Lieberman 1

House

Dems

Dems 270

GOP 165

(Sheehan gets 15% against Pelosi)

babblerwannabe

True Progressive needs to vote for Nader/ Gonzalzes, if they don't vote for what they want this election, they are never progressive to begin with.

Obama wins 51 percentage of the popular vote.

His grandma's passing will bump a few more votes to his way.

Obama wins Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, P.A and Ohio and Nevada, and along with all the states Kerry won in 2004.

Democrats win 59 seats in the Senate, not including Berni.

Prop 8 will fail. Anti- equal marriage amendment will also fail in Florida, but passed in Arizona.

[ 03 November 2008: Message edited by: babblerwannabe ]

Black_Lotus

quote:


Originally posted by babblerwannabe:
[b]True Progressive needs to vote for Nader/ Gonzalzes, if they don't vote for what they want this election, they are never progressive to begin with.

Obama wins 51 percentage of the popular vote.

His grandma's passing will bump a few more votes to his way.

Obama wins Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, P.A and Ohio and Nevada, and along with all the states Kerry won in 2004.

Democrats win 59 seats in the Senate, not including Berni.

Prop 8 will fail. Anti- equal marriage amendment will also fail in Florida, but passed in Arizona.

[ 03 November 2008: Message edited by: babblerwannabe ][/b]


Or they can vote for McKinney/Clemente.

Am I the only one who think there's a possibility of McCain winning? I heard 25% of U.S. voters will be using e-voting machines; if anything, I think that gives McCain a great chance of steali... er winnign this election.
[img]wink.gif" border="0[/img]

robbie_dee

Obama wins 49.9% of the popular vote, McCain takes 47.5% with the third party candidates (Barr, Nader, McKinney) dividing up the remainder. Electoral College votes split evenly 269-269, with Obama taking Iowa, Nevada and Colorado (won by Bush in 2004) but McCain surprises by stealing New Hampshire (won by Kerry).

In January, the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives elects Obama president.

Do I think this is likely? No. I think Obama's probably going to walk away with a solid majority, maybe 300 electoral votes. Indeed that's what I'd like to see, I think the country needs to give Obama a solid mandate with all the problems his administration is likely to face.

Nonetheless, I do think the above scenario would be... interesting.

ElizaQ ElizaQ's picture

quote:


Originally posted by Black_Lotus:
[b]

Or they can vote for McKinney/Clemente.

Am I the only one who think there's a possibility of McCain winning? I heard 25% of U.S. voters will be using e-voting machines; if anything, I think that gives McCain a great chance of steali... er winnign this election.
[img]wink.gif" border="0[/img] [/b]


No you're not the only one. I probably just suffering from cynicism or protective pessimism though. [img]wink.gif" border="0[/img] Even though most of the polls are showing pretty good numbers in some they're recording undecideds still higher then the spread so it will depend which way they break, or if they will even bother to vote.

In the tighter States it also probably depends on just how long people are willing to stand in line. In early voting the lineups in some places are 6 to 8 hours long, which is just nutz!

There does appear to be some correlation with lack of voting places or machines in more democratic precincts in some states. Funny that....

The early vote turnout is already breaking records all over the place so tomorrow could be just crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if in some areas there won't be enough time for all the people to vote within the posted hours. Don't know what happens in that case. Maybe someone here knows. If there are still big lineup when the polls are supposed to close can they extend it. Is it a state by state sort of ruling?
I can't imagine, or maybe can imagine what would happen if people had been standing in a lineup for hours and hours and they get an announcement, 'oops sorry times up you don't get to vote!' Yuckiness...

Adam T

The aggregate U.S election in 2006 was 52.9% Democratic - 44.9% Republican. I would expect a similar result, though slightly tighter- 53-46%

My electoral college prediction is 353-185. I agree with Ghoris on everything, except I think Obama will eke out a win in North Carolina.

For what it's worth, apparently Karl Rove also predicts an Obama win of 338-200.

The largest possible win for Obama is probably 405-133 in which McCain wins just 17 states, failing to even win his home state of Arizona.

Those 17 states are: 1.Alabama, 2.Alaska, 3.Arkansas, 4.Idaho, 5.Kansas, 6.Kentucky, 7.Louisiana 8.Mississippi, 9.Nebraska, 10.Oklahoma, 11.South Carolina, 12.South Dakota, 13.Tennessee, 14.Texas, 15.Utah, 16.West Virginia, 17.Wyoming.

In such a landslide scenario (which I don't expect) it would be likely that of these states, Obama would also lose 1.Arkansas, 2.Kansas, 3.Kentucky, 4.Louisiana, 5.Mississippi, 6.South Carolina, 7.South Dakota, 8.Texas and 9.West Virginia by at most 10%.

It is also interesting to note the regional disparity of those 17 states, they are truly the core Republican areas: 10 are considered southern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia), 3 are Mountain West States (Idaho, Utah and Wyoming), 3.are Prairie, midwestern states that border the Mountain States (Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota) and then there is Alaska (which might well have been a toss up state had McCain not put Palin on the ticket).

ghoris

quote:


Originally posted by Adam T:
For what it's worth, apparently Karl Rove also predicts an Obama win of 338-200.


Just what are you insinuating? [img]wink.gif" border="0[/img]

wage zombie

Obama 55%
McCain 42%
Barr <2%
McKinney <1%
Nader <1%

Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Indiana, Montana, Missouri.

Senate:
Dems 57
Repubs: 40
Ind: 2
Run off: 1

Doug

First results!

Dixville Notch, NH:

Obama 15
McCain 6

It's the first time they voted Democratic since 1968.

[url=http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/03/dixville.notch/index.html]http://...

And in Harts Location, NH:

Obama 17
McCain 10
Ron Paul 2

[url=http://www.hartslocation.com/]http://www.hartslocation.com/[/url]

[ 03 November 2008: Message edited by: Doug ]

Lord Palmerston

quote:


Originally posted by ghoris:
President

Obama 338 50%
McCain 200 45%

Obama wins all the Kerry states and picks up Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Florida.


This is pretty much how I think it will go as well.

ElizaQ ElizaQ's picture

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that he's going to scoop Georgia as well. It's been on my mind.

West Coast Greeny

Prez election: Enthusiasm gap, Fundraising gap, youth voter turnout and absence of Bradley effect swings election hard in Obama's favour.

Obama (D) - 54.5%, 393 EV, Pick-ups: NV, CO, NM, FL, NC, VA, OH, IA, MO, MT, GA, IN.
McCain (R) - 43.2% 145 EV, Pick-ups: Nada
Others - 2.3%

Senate election: Some Democrats get some extra help breezing in on Obama's coattails... but not that much. The fact that Democrats fall one seat short of the magic 60 number doesn't matter as much as you would think.

Dems - 58 (57 + Sanders) Pickups: The obvious ones. Georgia goes to runoff, but Dems ultimately lose.
GOP - 41 seats
Ind - 1 seat (best way to describe Lieberman, especially after this election)

House
Dems - 257
Reps - 178

Prop 8 - passes, 52.2 - 47.8

[ 03 November 2008: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]

ghoris

I think the enthusiasm gap and the expected heavy Democratic turnout will tip a few close down-ticket races in the Dems favour, for example, Al Franken in Minnesota.

People (including more than a few Democrats) obviously have real reservations about Franken because Obama is winning Minnesota by double digits, but Franken can't seem to crack 42-43 percent. A poll out today actually had him down slightly (but within the margin of error). Conversely, the relatively unknown Amy Klobuchar absolutely spanked GOP 'star' candidate Mark Kennedy 58-38 in the 2006 Minnesota Senate election. Given the current political climate, Coleman should be dead meat but he still has an excellent chance to win. If this seat slips through the Dems fingers, there is no doubt in my mind that the narrative will be that they blew it by nominating Franken.

Personally, I think Franken has the potential to be an excellent Senator and a real progressive hell-raiser, who seem to be in short supply in the Senate Democratic caucus. The Dems will almost certainly have a big mandate after the dust settles, and it would be nice to have a few more Senators in the mould of Paul Wellstone and Russ Feingold and fewer in the mould of Harry Reid and Ben Nelson.

Closer to home (for me) is the extremely close Washington governor's race. Even though she has a somewhat lackluster record, I hope that Christine Gregoire can ride Obama's coat-tails a bit to re-election, not just because she's a Democrat, but because Dino Rossi seems to be an extremely shady character with a lot of questionable backers. Again, a Democratic state that is going to go overwhelmingly for Obama but at the same time seems poised to elect a Republican to statewide office.

Another head-scratchers - the Alaska Senate being as competitive as it is. Seriously, if Alaskans are stupid/venal enough to elect Stevens, the Senate will do the right thing and vote to expel him.

Michelle

[url=http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/dixville.notch/index.html?iref=to... Notch voted Obama in a landslide.[/url]

This tiny town usually gives a landslide to the Republicans, so this is very interesting.

quote:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama emerged victorious in the first election returns of the 2008 presidential race, winning 15 of 21 votes cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.

People in the village in New Hampshire's northeast corner voted just after midnight Tuesday.

It was the first time since 1968 that the village leaned Democratic in an election.

Obama's rival, Republican John McCain, won 6 votes.

A full 100 percent of registered voters in the village cast ballots. And the votes didn't take long to tally.

The town, home to around 75 residents, has opened its polls shortly after midnight each Election Day since 1960, drawing national media attention for being the first place in the country to make its presidential preferences known.


Adam T

Congressional predictions
Democrats gain
1.Alaska-at large, Ethan Berkowitz over Don Young
2.Arizona 1, Ann Kirkpatrick (Open Seat)
3.California 4, Charlie Brown (Open Seat)
4.Colorado 4, Betsy Markey over Marilyn Musgrave
5.Connecticut 4, Jim Himes over Chris Shays
6.Florida 8, Alan Grayson over Ric Keller
7.Florida 24, Suzanne Kosmas over Tom Feeney
8.Idaho 1, Walt Minnick over Bill Sali
9.Illinois 10, Dan Seals over Mark Kirk
10.Illinois 11, Debbie Halvorson (Open Seat)
11.Maryland 1, Frank Kratovil (Open Seat)
12.Michigan 7, Mark Schauer over Tim Walhberg
13.Michigan 9, Gary Peters over Joe Knollenberg
14.Minnesota 3, Ashwin Madia (Open Seat)
15.Minnesota 6, Elywn Tinklenberg over Michelle Bachman
16.Nevada 3, Dina Titus over Jon Porter
17.New Jersey 3, John Adler (Open Seat)
18.New Jersey 7, Linda Stender (Open Seat)
19.New Mexico 1, Martin Heinrich (Open Seat)
20.New York 13, Mike McMahon (Open Seat)
21.New York 25, Dan Maffei (Open Seat)
22.New York 29, Eric Massa over Randy Kuhl
23.North Carolina 8, Larry Kissell over Robin Hayes
24.Ohio 15, Mary Jo Kilroy (Open Seat)
25.Ohio 16, John Boccieri (Open Seat)
26.Pennsylvania 3, Kathy Dahlkemper over Phil English
27.Virginia 11, Gerry Connolly (Open Seat)
28.Washington 8, Darcy Burner over Dave Reichert

Republican gains
1.Florida 16, Tom Rooney over Tim Mahoney
2.Louisiana 6, Bill Cassidy over Don Cazeyoux
3.Pennsylvania 11, Lou Barletta over Paul Kanjorski
4.Texas 22, Pete Olson over Nick Lampson

The Louisiana 4 primary was delayed to today because of one of the hurricanes. Unless the Democrats become unpopular very quickly they will gain a 25th seat when Paul Carmouche wins the open seat.

U.S Senate
1.Alaska, Mark Begich over Ted Stevens
2.Colorado, Mark Udall (Open Seat)
3.Minnesota, Al Franken over Norm Coleman
4.New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen over John Sununu
5.New Mexico, Tom Udall (Open Seat)
6.North Carolina, Kay Hagen over Elizabeth Dole
7.Oregon, Jeff Merkley over Gordon Smith
8.Virginia, Mark Warner (Open Seat)

57 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 independents who caucus with the Dems (Joe Lieberman will not switch parties)
Georgia Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss is forced to a runoff again Jim Martin.

The only other hope the Democrats have of getting to 60 seats (and I'm not 100% sure how important that magical number is, there are a whole bunch of Democrats who might support a Republican filibuster on any number of issues) is by winning the Kentucky seat of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. That would be nice, but I don't think it will happen. The Democratic challenger, Bruce Lunsford would be one of those 60 who I think would be likely to frequently join Republican filibusters.

Governors
Democrats gain
Missouri, Jay Nixon (Open Seat)

I see I agree with Ghoris on everything. Ghoris made one mistake though, in adding up the new House totals. The Democrats have 236 seats not 233, they gained 3 in special election victories this year.

So, the House becomes
261 Democrats
174 Republicans

The last time the Democrats had numbers this large, their majority was padded with a lot of conservative southern representatives. Though there are still some of them, the new caucus is much less philosophically divided.

If the Democrats don't get to 60 seats in the Senate, they will try and get a handful of Senators to join them in ending filibusters. The best bets are:
1.Arlen Spector, Pennsylvania
2.George Voinovich, Ohio
3.Olympia Snowe, Maine

Of those, only Spector was around when the Republicans successfully filibustered Clinton from 1993-1994.

[ 04 November 2008: Message edited by: Adam T ]

jas

quote:


Originally posted by ElizaQ:
[b] If there are still big lineup when the polls are supposed to close can they extend it. Is it a state by state sort of ruling?
I can't imagine, or maybe can imagine what would happen if people had been standing in a lineup for hours and hours and they get an announcement, 'oops sorry times up you don't get to vote!' [/b]

I'd like to know this, too. If the utter ineptitude of U.S. election organizers prevents people from exercising their constitutionally guaranteed right (am I right, here?) what kind of legal action is available to those? Does anyone know? IOW, it should be illegal to deny any citizen who is registered to vote, and has their ID, a chance to vote in a timely and convenient fashion. Why is this not illegal?

I wonder how many Wal-mart employees are going to be fired today for having the audacity to wait to exercise their democratic right.

ElizaQ ElizaQ's picture

quote:


Originally posted by jas:
[b]

I'd like to know this, too. If the utter ineptitude of U.S. election organizers prevents people from exercising their constitutionally guaranteed right (am I right, here?) what kind of legal action is available to those? Does anyone know? IOW, it should be illegal to deny any citizen who is registered to vote, and has their ID, a chance to vote in a timely and convenient fashion. Why is this not illegal?

I wonder how many Wal-mart employees are going to be fired today for having the audacity to wait to exercise their democratic right.[/b]


Since posting the question I've read a couple of reports about some States confirming that if necessary they'll keep the polls open for anyone who is still in line at the posted closing time.

The Obama campaign has a huge ground group of something like 6000 volunteer lawyers that's working to ensure this sort of thing.

ElizaQ ElizaQ's picture

Speaking of the lawyers. Just came across this on Kos which gives an example of how organized this aspect may be.

[url=http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/4/9578/77830/635/652289]Voter Intimidation in St. Louis County[/url]

quote:

We had a tip come in our on Strikeforce Hotline that there are police circling Berkley Middle School in the Airport Township.

There are two issues in play:

1. Police are circling the polling place, which according to our source, is making people in line uneasy.
2. Poll workers are harassing voters over identification.

Obviously, voter intimdation in a predominately African American pocket of the metro area (77% African American, 2000 Census) is a very big deal. At this time, we haven’t been able to determine whether or not the intimidated voters are being turned away or being given a provisional ballot.

Upon receiving the tip, we alerted the Obama lawyer at the polling place closest to our current location, who then called the "secret squirrel" hotline to provide the information we were given. Shortly thereafter (and I mean like 4 seconds after he hung up), we received a phone call from the boiler room for more information. We were then told that the campaign was dispatching a platoon of lawyers to deal with the problem immediately.


josh

52-47-1, 338-200 Obama.

Dems pick up 7 seats in the senate and 24 in the house.

Michelle

DID YOU VOTE? All US babblers' accounts are suspended until they tell us they voted. [img]wink.gif" border="0[/img]

(Except for Sven, unless he's voting for Obama.)

josh

Of course.

Michelle

Good man. [img]wink.gif" border="0[/img]

remind remind's picture

271 McCain
267 Obama

And riots in the streets.

Fidel

The equivalent of the old Anglo-Saxon Witan, the U.S. college of electors, will have the last say.

Le T Le T's picture

quote:


DID YOU VOTE? All US babblers' accounts are suspended until they tell us they voted.

You social democrats are always trying to force people to pledge allegiance to your sinking ship of electoral demockracy.

[img]wink.gif" border="0[/img]

ghoris

quote:


Originally posted by Adam T:
I see I agree with Ghoris on everything. Ghoris made one mistake though, in adding up the new House totals. The Democrats have 236 seats not 233, they gained 3 in special election victories this year.

Well, I guess great minds do think alike.

I actually do think that the final numbers will be D 258, R 177, the changes (expressed as +/- 25) were over the 2006 election, as opposed to 'at dissolution', as it were.

ghoris

There are two states that are not 100% final. Some networks have called Missouri for McCain but he's only up by 6,000 votes out of nearly 2.9 million cast. Nobody is calling North Carolina yet - it looks like there are provisional and absentee ballots outstanding - but Obama is up by 12,000 votes.

So assuming McCain wins Missouri and Obama wins North Carolina, the final presidential tally will be 362-173, with a popular vote split of 52-46.

Congress: Democrats actually have to be a bit disappointed at this. Obama's coattails have proved somewhat limited, particularly in Minnesota, California and Florida. That being said, Congress (ie the Democratic Congress) was almost as unpopular as Bush going into this election, so the chance of there being another Democratic wave on the scale of 2006 were limited.

Four Senate seats are still technically undecided (AK, OR, GA and MN) but Republicans are leading in all of them and the only one that still has lots of outstanding votes at the moment is OR. The Democrats won five Senate seats (NH, VA, NC, NM and CO) but none of those were real surprises and in each case the winner appears to have outpolled Obama statewide.

There are 10 House seats outstanding, MSNBC is projecting a final tally of 258-177 (ahem [img]biggrin.gif" border="0[/img] ).

Some of the more disappointing results:

Alaska has, it appears, re-elected both its corrupt, venal, sleazy House member and its corrupt, venal, sleazy [b]convicted felon[/b] Senator. Even the Republican Senate leader has said that Stevens will not allowed to take his seat - what more does it take to get rid of guys like this? I guess I state that gives Sarah Palin an 80% approval rating has just too many stupid people in it. Alaska deserves to replace Mississippi as the nation's backwater and laughingstock.

Oregon is still counting votes but incumbent Republican Smith is still leading by 15,000 votes. There seems to be a lot of confusion about whether all the votes in Portland have in fact been counted, owing to the fact that Oregon allows voters to mail in their ballots, so it could still go to the Dems, but it's discouraging to see in a state where Obama blew out McCain 55-43.

And worst of all, that snivelling turd Norm Coleman, who shamelessly exploited the untimely death of Paul Wellstone to get elected in 2002, appears to have eked out a narrow win over Al Franken in the Minnesota Senate race. It's only 600 votes out of nearly 2.9 million cast and will go to an automatic recount, but again, Obama carried the state by 10 points so it's disappointing to see Republicans winning the downticket races in Minnesota (besides Coleman, whacko Michelle Bachmann won her House seat and the Democrats failed to pick up Jim Ramstad's seat).

The Obama victory is wonderful, historic, etc, but all the crowing we heard during the primaries about how he was going to help downticket races simply did not materialize. Even worse, some analysts have suggested that record numbers of black and Hispanic voters who turned out in support of Obama also voted to ban gay marriage in places like California and Florida.

[ 05 November 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

remind remind's picture

Well Stevens is out in Alaska, and we still have 2 states outstanding, Minnesota
and Georgia.

Quote:

Sen.
Ted Stevens' election defeat marks the end of an era in which he held a
commanding place in Alaska politics while wielding power on some of the most
influential committees in Congress.

It also moves Senate Democrats within two seats of a filibuster-proof 60-vote
majority and gives President-elect
Barack Obama a
stronger hand when he assumes office on Jan. 20.

On the day the longest-serving Republican in Senate history turned 85, he was
ousted by Alaska voters troubled by his conviction on federal
felony charges and eager for a new direction in Washington, where Stevens
served since Lyndon
B. Johnson was president.

 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081119/ap_on_el_se/stevens

h/t NSpector

___________________________________________________________
"watching the tide roll away"