US Elections leading up to and including the 2018 Midterm Elections

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NorthReport

Republicans push hard on GOP tax plan, but voters just aren't that into it

 

Republicans are investing enormous amounts of political capital and dollars to pump up support for the GOP tax overhaul in a risky, last-ditch legislative undertaking ahead of next year’s midterm election.

President Trump is promoting the bill as a Christmas present for the American people, and a group aligned with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan has spent $20 million so far on ads and outreach in communities across the nation. Senate Leader Mitch McConnell is set to fast-track the bill through the chamber next week.

Problem is, voters just don’t seem to be that interested.

Polls show most Americans view the tax bill as benefiting the wealthy and corporations, skeptical it will do much for middle-class taxpayers. Outside analyses of the $1.5-trillion package echo those assessments despite revisions.

 

Republicans are nevertheless rushing ahead on a plan that may please wealthy donors, but it is opposed by most major categories of voters, including independents, women, minorities and young people, according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll. Even among Republicans, support is hardly overwhelming, with 60% approving of the plan, 15% disapproving and 26% unsure.

Such lackluster enthusiasm and Republicans’ failure so far to sell their tax plan to middle-class Americans raises questions about whether the issue will be the slam-dunk in the 2018 midterm election that GOP leaders predict. After the failure to repeal Obamacare, Republicans are desperate for a political win.

Most California GOP House members vote to pass tax bill, with some hoping the Senate will help fix it

“I don’t see any political reward in passing or not passing tax reform legislation,” said David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “I don’t think the Trump base of the Republican Party sees this as an issue that would suddenly cause them to run to the polls.”

Part of the problem has been the unusual speed by which Republicans are muscling through the House and Senate tax bills, which permanently slash corporate rates to their lowest level in decades, 20%, but make only temporary cuts to individual taxes while doing away with popular write-offs and deductions.

Republicans have been unable to build public momentum without the prolonged hearings and debates that would be normal for legislation of this magnitude.

But GOP donors have lost patience with the lack of legislative accomplishments, telling lawmakers not to bother calling and asking for campaign checks for the coming midterm election until they have something to show for their hold on Congress and the White House.

“From the very start, we said that failure is not an option,” Ryan said last week after House Republicans passed their version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

The speaker made it clear that Republicans were delivering on their promise. “We, collectively, asked the country in 2016 to give us a chance to go work for them,” he said. “This conference, today, did one of the greatest things we could possibly do to make good on that promise.”

Perhaps more than any other Republican, Ryan has taken it upon himself to build support for the tax plan. The Ryan-aligned American Action Network has spent $20 million since August on television and radio ads and other tools to try to bolster lawmakers, shore up voter support for the tax bill and help shape public opinion in more than 50 House districts.

Amy Walter, the national editor at Cook, called Ryan’s undertaking remarkable if not unprecedented.

“It’s one thing for the speaker to be an active fundraiser for his party,” said Walter. “I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a speaker raise money like this for a group that is promoting specific policies as robustly as this.”

She added, “Then there’s the silence on the other side.”

Democrats have launched no comparable counter-effort against the tax bill, even though Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is a fundraising powerhouse whose haul is expected to meet if not surpass Ryan’s effort, despite being in the minority party.

Instead, Democrats are relying on the content of the tax bill itself to turn away voters.

“We don’t need to match them dollar for dollar because they're pushing bad policy that hurts the middle class,” said Charlie Kelly, executive director of the Pelosi-aligned House Majority PAC.

“Ryan and the Republican outside groups have spent $19 million trying to sell this terrible tax plan, but the reality is no amount of money can dress this up and make it look good,” he said.

To be sure, Democrats are not doing nothing. The House Democratic campaign arm is running digital ads, including on Facebook, against 39 House Republican lawmakers, even some who voted against the tax bill, “because ultimately their entire party will be held responsible for this vote,” a spokeswoman said.

And in a twist, Democrats secured various web domain addresses for the name of the GOP tax bill — including taxcutsandjobsact.com and taxcutsandjobsact.org — which all direct users to a single site where people can upload their own videos explaining why they oppose the Republican tax bill.

One woman, who introduces herself as Julie and holds a cat, says, “This cat has a better life than the average middle class will have under the Republican tax bill. This cat can go to the doctor. This cat has enough food. This cat has a warm house. Under the Republican tax bill, many people won’t.”

Voter attitudes may certainly shift over time, as happened with Obamacare, which rarely polled well among voters while Obama was president and only became popular when it was seriously threatened with repeal by Trump and Republicans.

A similar road may be ahead for the tax bill. Republicans set many of the bill’s effective dates — including the new individual tax rates and end of various itemized deductions — for the 2019 tax year, which means taxpayers may not begin to fully feel the impact until well after next fall’s midterm election.

Corry Bliss, executive director of American Action Network, takes the long view in pushing the legislation to passage, expecting that over time the group’s work — and the bill itself — will eventually increase enthusiasm among voters.

“If your taxes go down next year, you’re going to love this. If your taxes go up, you’re not,” he said. “Selling tax reform is a long-term project, and when people see results, a lot of the merits will sell themselves.”

 

 

 

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-tax-plan-unpopular-20171123-st...

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dp

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White supremists rule. Got it!

Roy Moore's incredible 'even though we had slavery' quote

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/08/politics/roy-moore-slavery/index.html

NorthReport
NorthReport

Like Trump, Moore breaking the rules of modern-day politics

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-moore-breaking-rules-modern-142644011.html

NorthReport

I suppose Moore feels he has it in the bag going off to another state for a football game during the last weekend before the election

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/10/roy-moore-alabama-philadelphia-football-army-navy-288861

NorthReport
josh

LOL.  Since when has Alabama cared about being embarassed?

NorthReport

Fox News poll out today shows jones increasing his lead to 10 per cent but all other recent polls show Moore in the lead so the Fox News poll is probably an outlier 

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/roy-moore-is-trying-to-run-out-the-clock-in-alabama

NorthReport

Republican Alabama Senator Shelby did not vote for Roy Moore. 

 

E-Day is tomorrow

NorthReport

If that’s the job description I suppose WH Spokesperson Sanders is just doing her job

 http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/donald-trump-tv-analysis/index.html

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We are one step closer to Trump's impeachment tonite.

NorthReport

'We Are in a Trump-Driven Worst-Case Situation Right Now'

The president is the common thread between the recent Republican losses in Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/we-are-in-a-trump-d...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Sounds like John McCain does not have too much time left. 

NorthReport

Paul Ryan Sees His Wild Washington Journey Coming to An End

He felt he was ‘made for this moment.’ But now, on the verge of achieving his long-sought legislative dream, he’s got his eyes on the exits.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/14/paul-ryan-retire-spea...

josh
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Tic Tok

Cochran's future in the Senate in doubt

The Appropriations Committee chairman hasn't presided over a hearing in months, and speculation is growing he will resign in January.

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/21/mississippi-senate-thad-cochra...

NorthReport

The Senate must really be missing Roy Moore, eh!

https://www.thedailybeast.com/sore-alabama-senate-race-loser-roy-moore-g...

oldgoat

I just note that this horror show of a budget that just got passed generally puts a few bucks in most people's pockets prior to the mid terms.  Coincidence?  Yeah probably.

NDPP

Marsha Gessen's Warning Ignored As Dreams of Trumpeachment Dance In Our Heads  -  by Paul Street

https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/12/22/masha-gessens-warning-ignored-as...

"...The dismal, dollar-drenched Democrats, the party of 'inauthentic opposition', are hardly more popular than the radically regressive Republicans. Their approval mark was 37 percent in a recent CNN poll, their lowest level in 25 years. Pervasive scorn for the not-so leftmost of the two great capitalist parties is richly appropriate, given its continuing champion role as 'the graveyard of social movements,' and its long history of serving the nation's financial, corporate and imperial ruling class.

It's Christmas time - a season for magical thinking. So let us sing along with that great liberal Russophobe Rachel Mad Dog Maddow: on Dasher, on Dancer, on Rachel, on Mueller! Let us all sleep snug in our beds, while dreams of Trumpeachment dance in our heads..."

NorthReport

This is what 2018 will be all about.

‘We have tapped into something’: Impeachment drive builds digital army to take on Trump

Tom Steyer's trove of data is fueling speculation about how the Democratic activist might use his new political power.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/27/trump-impeachment-digital-army...

NorthReport

The Worst Political Predictions of 2017

Spoiler alert: Everybody was wrong.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/27/worst-predictions-201...

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Aristotleded24

It is now less than half a year to the mid-terms, and not only are the Democrats going out of their way to avoid learning the lessons of the 2016 campaign, they cannot even clearly state what it is they want. Trump, on the other hand, can point to the tax cuts and construction of the wall on the Mexican border (which the Deomcratcs supported, by the way).

Don't believe the polls. The 2018 election is going to be a bloodbath for Democrats. That will continue in 2020 as Trump beats whichever corporatist the Democrats impose on their party. (No, Sanders has no chance to win that contest. The vested interests that donate to the Democratic Party have far too much to loose should Sander's public policy objectives come to pass.)

The Democrats are going nowhere. Third party or bust!

Sean in Ottawa
Cody87

Aristotleded24 wrote:

It is now less than half a year to the mid-terms, and not only are the Democrats going out of their way to avoid learning the lessons of the 2016 campaign, they cannot even clearly state what it is they want. Trump, on the other hand, can point to the tax cuts and construction of the wall on the Mexican border (which the Deomcratcs supported, by the way).

Don't believe the polls. The 2018 election is going to be a bloodbath for Democrats. That will continue in 2020 as Trump beats whichever corporatist the Democrats impose on their party. (No, Sanders has no chance to win that contest. The vested interests that donate to the Democratic Party have far too much to loose should Sander's public policy objectives come to pass.)

The Democrats are going nowhere. Third party or bust!

I could be very wrong, but I remember hearing that most of the seats up for election in 2018 are currently held by Democrats. So they have more to lose than to gain, in theory.

I still think Oprah would beat Trump in 2020, although the pro-Trump crowd has more ammo against her than I initially thought.

NDPP

The CIA Democrats

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/03/07/dems-m07.html

"An extraordinary number of former intelligence and military operatives from the CIA, Pentagon, National Security Council and State Department are seeking nominations as Democratic candidates for Congress in the 2018 midterm elections. The potential influx of military industrial personnel into the legislature has no precedent in US history..."

cco

There is no provision in the American constitution for cancelling or even postponing federal elections. Elections continued to be held in Union-controlled territory during the American Civil War.

Sean in Ottawa

cco wrote:

There is no provision in the American constitution for cancelling or even postponing federal elections. Elections continued to be held in Union-controlled territory during the American Civil War.

This question was considered by the Congressional Rrsearch Service in 2004. Apparently Congress has this power and could delegate it to the Executive Branch merely by passsing a Statute. In this case the threat was presumed to be a terrorist attack. Another threat to an election would of course be foreign manipulation. I think that threat could not be considered less than terrorism in law and so if Congrees wanted to give the power to postpone an election to Trump they could.

What this means is that Trump could not wait till 2020 and cancel a Presidential election after losing the House. The House would have to either be retained in 2018 or the 2018 election would also have had to be cancelled. A loss of the House would prevent Trump from being granted the authority that this Congressional report suggests resides with the House and not the President.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/RL32471.pdf

All that said, I think the US would become ungovernable if the House tried this over Russian interference. I suspect that the US would face a national strike among other things. It would be in crisis. I do not think the House politically would be able to do this. But here at least is the mechanism if anyone wanted to see it.

I think Trump likely would not have enough support from Republicans to do this in the House. They would be faced with either permanently ending elections or a bloodbath when they resumed. So while interesting I do not see this as realistic.

josh
Rev Pesky

Ryan not running confirmed today. There's no doubt that is a blow to the Republicans as the mid-terms approach. Apparently more that 3 dozen (CBC) House Republicans are not running this time around, making it a possiblity the Democrats will win the House. 

NDPP

Pelosi: 'I Don't See Anything Inappropriate' in Rigging Primaries

https://t.co/8hMMWoHtzh

"The Intercept has published a secretly taped audio recording of one of the most powerful Democrats in America pressuring a progressive candidate to drop out of a Colorado primary race...make no mistake: this is the single most damning piece of evidence ever published exposing the Democratic Party's war on progressives..."

NDPP

How Clintonites Are Manufacturing Faux Progressive Congressional Campaigns

https://t.co/BCSBPxIJFT

"...What we are witnessing is the inevitable counter-insurgency by the forces of entrenched political power in Washington, and capital more generally. While Bernie Sanders was no revolutionary, his campaign ignited a grassroots upsurge that now threatens the power of the neoliberal wing of the Democratic Party and the neoliberal Clinton political machine that, for all intents and purposes, controls it..."

NorthReport

CNN poll: Democrats' 2018 advantage is nearly gone

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/cnn-poll-generic-ballot-narrows/...

NDPP

US Primaries: Military-Industrial Candidates Win 4 Democratic Congressional Nominations

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/05/24/prim-m24.html

"On Tuesday, candidates with links to the military or intelligence services won all four of the Democratic primary contests in which they are running. These results mark a significant advance in what amounts to the takeover of the Democratic Party by the national security apparatus. The four victories for Tuesday brings to at least 12 the number of former military-intelligence operatives who have been nominated by the Democratic Party as its congressional candidates, with at least 25 more on the ballot next month in nearly a dozen states, from Maine to California.

There has been virtually no discussion in the corporate media about the significance of this rising force in the Democratic Party, or the critical role that a military-intelligence 'faction' would play if the Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives in November..."

josh

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