What is happening in Afghanistan, talking heads say 50% of

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SeekingAPolitic...
What is happening in Afghanistan, talking heads say 50% of

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SeekingAPolitic...

The talking heads on tv are saying this weekend that the Taliban control or in question control half the country.  He is an older article of a single taliban victory.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/24/asia/afghanistan-taliban-sangin/

I found this pdf file on SIGAR website Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction which provides congress quarterly updates about what is happening in Afghanistan and most importantly talks about the military situation in Afghanistan. 

https://www.sigar.mil/allreports/index.aspx?SSR=5

Here is the last quarterly report from Jan. 2017 for the congress.

https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2017-01-30qr.pdf

I did not read the whole but looked the information in the secuirty part(starts on page 84).  This report says that on page 90 table 3.6 november 26 2016.  The taliban control 10% of the country and 30% is in flex.

Table 3.8,3.9 page 99

-The authorized strenght of the amry 203,500

-The authorized strenght of  the paramilitary and regular police 157,000

Really strenght is 175,000 for the amry and 147,500 for the police. 10.5% short of full what should it should in Nov 2016.

Regular army loses- Page 102

"USFOR-A reported overall ANA attrition over the autumn months at 2.9% during August, 2.3% during September, and 3.1% during October.253 Corpslevel attrition figures have been classified this quarter and will be reported in the classified annex of this report.

​Attrition clean word for losses, ​average 2.7% loses over 1 month, month after month that will cripple the afghan army unless new recruits join up.

Police loses.Page 111

According to USFOR-A, the overall ANP monthly attrition rate for the last quarter was:331 • August 2016   2.34% • September 2016  2.32% • October 2016   2.5%

Without replacement of losses, 12 months of 2% attrition would reduce a unit to less than 79% of its original strength.

​The Afghanistan forces are being ground down.  Regular forces are taking average 2.7% loses to action, diesase, destriton.  That is serious losses. 

A new report should be released at the end of the month.  If the talking heads right then I assume that these losses are continuing but I save judgement until the new report is released.  I am suprised that this information is availble to the general public.

 

 

 

SeekingAPolitic...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-attack-idUSKBN17O04C

At least 140 afghan soldiers killed in surprise attack, at the end of the month we get a new report.  Government is saying 100 dead and wounded but sources inside the government say at least 140 dead.  Those kind of loses will hard on the afghan army morale.

NDPP

Mother of All Schemes: US Seeks More Chaos in Afghanistan To Justify More Intervention 

https://on.rt.com/89ls

"The US knows exactly what it is doing in Afghanistan. It is trying to egg on Taliban and ISIS fighters so that it can create more chaos, thereby justifying its intervention, says Catherine Shakdam, Shafaqna Institute of ME Studies. The number of people killed in a Taliban attack on a military base in Afghanistan, has risen to 140."

SeekingAPolitic...

I am moving trump speech and reaction to afghanistan speech to related thread.

​Talking heads on news channels are asking what will the current deployment 8,000 which is assumed will rev up do when Obamas surge to nearly 100,000 in 2010-2011 did not defeat the Talaban.  Many cynics are saying that this a poltical exercise that on trumps term afghan situation does not worsen and trump not will do down in history as the President that lost afgahnistan.

lagatta4

Duck Soup!

SeekingAPolitic...

Last night CNN reporter in Kabul mentioned the Afghan army at the moment 30 soldiers are killed a day.  He mentioned that taliban are winning.  I looked offical american estimates of taliban strength is 43,ooo and various off shoot terrorist groups.  Afghan state soldiers and paramilitary police strenght 330,000 men.  8,000 American troops and grab bag of 4 to 5 thousand international troops on various missions.  No word if the US is using mercenray troops.

lagatta4

Trump's newfound war fever is such a classic diversionary tactic from the trainwreck that we must not forget what dire consequences this will have for the Afghanis and other peoples of the region, and even for the US troops who are being sacrificed for the Big Orange Ego.

Mobo2000

Yes, exactly.   Not too concerned about the US troops myself (volunteer army and all).    There is no serious antiwar movement within the Democratic party, they are currently applauding the ramp up in Afghanistan.    Escalation of violence overseas is the best card Trump has left to play.   Perhaps Van Jones will praise his presidential manner once again.

 

Mobo2000

Fairly reasonable article by Rick Salutin on the Trumpian ramp up in Afghanistan.  

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2017/08/22/donald-trumps-flaw...

And another article in the National Post, similarly critical of further Canadian involvement.

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-canada-should-steer-clear-of...

I hope that most Canadians remain opposed to further involvement.   And hopefully openly supporting Trump or sending troops would be damaging politically for the Liberals.    But I think they'll find a way to get some skin in the game, perhaps avoiding a PR mess by refusing further support in Afghanistan, and instead supporting the US missile defence program:

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/08/22/it-may-be-time-for-canada...

 

Sean in Ottawa

Of course is the US seeks involvement in the context of NAFTA talks can we be sure there will be no trade-offs?

I guess I am not a trusting person when it comes to some things.

NDPP

Unworthy Victims: Western Wars Have Killed Four Million Muslims Since 1990

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article41491.htm

NDPP

Last 8 Months Prove US A Bonafide Regime

https://on.rt.com/8lve

"The only surprising thing about Donald Trump's recent U-turn on Afghanistan is that anyone should be surprised..."

NDPP

"Ex-President Karzai tells Afshin Rattansi evidence suggests helicopters from US bases are helping IS in Afghanistan."

https://twitter.com/ShoebridgeC/status/916408615334006784