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Looks like the Tories have succeded in snatching defeat from the Jaws of Victory.
How's that? The election is still almost 4 weeks away - a lot can happen during the campaign.
I will say, however, that as I predicted in the previous thread, Gord Steeves' musings about privatizing MPI are already coming back to haunt the Tories.
But videos circulating online show Gord Steeves, the Tories' star candidate in Seine River, talking about private-sector auto insurance.
"For me, this comes down to a very basic philosophical question: is auto insurance a service that government needs to provide, or could this service be provided by the private sector? The obvious answer to me is yes, it could," Steeves told Shaw TV in an interview earlier this year, before he became a PC candidate.
Steeves was not made available to comment on Wednesday, but McFadyen maintained that his party does not wish to privatize Manitoba's Crown corporations.
"I think we've made it clear: we're not coming in to privatize crown corporations," McFadyen told reporters.
"Everybody has opinions. That's not party policy."
But the New Democrats have been citing Steeves's comments to illustrate what they believe is the Progressive Conservatives' plan to privatize Manitoba Hydro and Manitoba Public Insurance.
"The opposition, and Hugh McFadyen's Conservatives, would like to raise electricity rates to market rates," Selinger said.
"One of his leading candidates has suggested privatizing auto insurance is an option that he thinks is a viable option."
What a lame answer by Hugh! "Everyone has opinions". The Tory 'war room' had to know the NDP was going to make this an issue - this is the best they could come up with?
Here are my maps with all the links fixed:
Hard to believe that Hugh is backed by the same team that got Katz re-elected and moved Winnipeg South Centre and Elmwood-Transcona into the Conservative column.
Well there are weeks left. Maybe Steeves said that as a trial balloon to see how it went. I do not drive a vehicle but I think MPI's rates are probably the second lowest in the country. Someone needs to do a flip-phone ambush on McFadyen/McFayden while wearing a suit and say "hey Hugh just between you and me, we will sell MPI won't we?"
Does anyone have a transposition of the votes in the last provincial election applied to the new boundaries?
If there is one thing this election has clearly shown, it's that the entire political class in this province is out of steam and needs renewal.
First, we have the governing NDP. Once a party has been in office for so long, the need for renewal begins to show, as a party that has been in office a long time tends to hunker down rather than reach out and be bold. Despite the fact that the majority feel the province is headed in the right direction overall, there is a sense that maybe it's time for a change. Plus the fact that the NDP has been interfering in local nomination races is not good, and gives off an air of entitlement that turns voters off. And trying to fear-monger that McFadyen will privatize everything he can get his hands on? That routine is getting really old.
Next we have the PCs. Their campaign slogan is "vision, change, progress," but what exactly that means, I don't know. Their campaign is very confused, on the one hand using the same right-wing talking points about crime that resonate only with their base, yet on the other hand trying to out-NDP the NDP on health spending. One minute they want to balance the budget at all costs, the next they plan to balance the budget 4 years later than what would happen under the economic action plan launched by the current government.
Then the Liberals. I give them marks for raising some social issues that remain unresolved, but the Liberal brand simply has no traction in this province. Dr. Gerrard, despite having been around for 12 years, has simply not caught on. He seems to think he can be all things to all people, despite the fact that sometimes you have to make decisions that will inherently leave some unhappy. They've raised a couple of issues like beat cops and rapid transit, unfortunately those issues are primarily decided by the city and I really doubt that they would twist the arms of the current civic administration that much anyways. The Liberals will be absolutely squeezed out in the polarized race between the top 2 parties. If the Liberals avoid being wiped out, it will be because community activist Paul Hesse wins the Fort Rouge race on his own merits, not as a result of any affection for the Liberal brand.
Then we have the Greens. They are running the most candidates they ever have. Unfortunately, their vote is not concentrated enough to make a huge impact in any part of the province, and they simply do not have the infrastructure needed to get their message out and inspire people. Federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May came to Manitoba to try and energize things, but I don't know how people feel about a federal politician representing another province coming and telling Manitobans what they should or shouldn't do.
I love to bash the NDP nearly as much as anyone but I do not actually recall them mentioning privitization as much as this current election. I was working 60 hours a week during the last election so I easily could have missed a lot. What I do recall (and please correct me) was that they really, really emphasized Gary Doer and his smile. I think even local candidate signs emphasized Gary Doer over the NDP.
First, we have the governing NDP. Once a party has been in office for so long, the need for renewal begins to show, as a party that has been in office a long time tends to hunker down rather than reach out and be bold. Despite the fact that the majority feel the province is headed in the right direction overall, there is a sense that maybe it's time for a change. Plus the fact that the NDP has been interfering in local nomination races is not good, and gives off an air of entitlement that turns voters off. And trying to fear-monger that McFadyen will privatize everything he can get his hands on? That routine is getting really old.
I watched the debate, Greg held together well. He should have added some hst attacks onto all of his opponents. He missed alot of one-liner knockout opportunities.
I watched the debate, Greg held together well. He should have added some hst attacks onto all of his opponents. He missed alot of one-liner knockout opportunities.
That's good to hear. I have a sinking feeling that it's going to be a slam-dunk victory for the Conservatives. Hugh McFayden is the only face you see on campaign posters. The party isn't even much bothered with the credentials of individual candidates. It's very reminiscent of how the Federal conservatives have been running their campaign. It's totally focused on voting for a leader and not your representative.
Just curious why you feel it's going to be a 'slam-dunk victory' for the Tories. My brother lives in Winnipeg and he's a Tory supporter, and he still thinks the NDP is going to win.
Running leader-centred campaigns is nothing new. The Tories used to run as the 'Gary Filmon Team' and put the party name in microscopic print on everything. The last two elections it was "Gary Doer and Today's NDP."
That said, if the Tories are really putting the leader front and centre, that's stupid strategy on their part. Selinger may be dull, but people seem to think he's a safe pair of hands at least. Hugh comes across as a smirking frat boy lightweight. Last election, the Tories' numbers actually went *down* during the campaign - the more people saw of Hugh, the less they liked. I think he's a total liability for them (my brother thinks so too), but with a caucus full of has-beens and never-will-bes, I suppose they don't have much choice. If they are really putting all their chips down on the 'leadership' issue, that's a dangerous game they're playing.
I hope you and your brother are right, ghoris. Most people I chat with think that the Conservatives are going to take it. I think my riding is safe because our MLA, Jennifer Howard, is really decent and hard working for her constituents.
Have there been any poll results released so far in the election campaign to see how the parties are doing at this point?
Have there been any poll results released so far in the election campaign to see how the parties are doing at this point?
Last poll was in June
New poll out in Manitoba. NDP leads PCs by 41-32 with Liberals at 5.
http://www.cjob.com/Landing/Story.aspx?ID=1545343
And even more significantly, the NDP has a big lead in battleground Winnipeg with 46 percent to 25 for the Tories, plus the Tory and Liberal support is softer, including more "leaners" than the NDP support, which is more committed.
A couple of provisos: the poll has a small sample size (just under 600) and the polling was done by Viewpoints Research - Gary Doer's wife's firm. If we see some confirmation in the Free Press/Probe poll (which they always try to spin in the Tories' favour), that will mean the NDP is well on its way.
600? That is a really, really small sample size. I wonder if that relates to more and more people just hanging up on pollsters?
And even more significantly, the NDP has a big lead in battleground Winnipeg with 46 percent to 25 for the Tories, plus the Tory and Liberal support is softer, including more "leaners" than the NDP support, which is more committed.
A couple of provisos: the poll has a small sample size (just under 600) and the polling was done by Viewpoints Research - Gary Doer's wife's firm. If we see some confirmation in the Free Press/Probe poll (which they always try to spin in the Tories' favour), that will mean the NDP is well on its way.
What in particular leads to the impression that Jennifer Howard works hard for her constituents? Not a rhetorical question.
I hope you and your brother are right, ghoris. Most people I chat with think that the Conservatives are going to take it. I think my riding is safe because our MLA, Jennifer Howard, is really decent and hard working for her constituents.
600? That is a really, really small sample size. I wonder if that relates to more and more people just hanging up on pollsters?
And even more significantly, the NDP has a big lead in battleground Winnipeg with 46 percent to 25 for the Tories, plus the Tory and Liberal support is softer, including more "leaners" than the NDP support, which is more committed.
A couple of provisos: the poll has a small sample size (just under 600) and the polling was done by Viewpoints Research - Gary Doer's wife's firm. If we see some confirmation in the Free Press/Probe poll (which they always try to spin in the Tories' favour), that will mean the NDP is well on its way.
It might be a small sample size, but Manitoba has a small population, about 1.2M. If 1.2M is the population, and not all Manitobans are eligible voters, and a confidence level of 95% is desired with sample size of 600, then pollsters can be 95% certain of results with +/- 4% margin of error. As far as statistical sampling goes, randomness of opinions is more important than either sample or population size.
What in particular leads to the impression that Jennifer Howard works hard for her constituents? Not a rhetorical question.
I hope you and your brother are right, ghoris. Most people I chat with think that the Conservatives are going to take it. I think my riding is safe because our MLA, Jennifer Howard, is really decent and hard working for her constituents.
She certainly send more regular updates than Pat Martin or (in my new federal riding) Joyce Bateman. Plus her performance at the Leg has been very decent. And finally, she does not rely on robo-calls for seeking support.
Well, I guess I spoke too soon - the Environics poll for CP has the Tories with a slight lead, which I suspect is within the margin of error:
PC 45
NDP 42
Lib 10
Basically, it's a dead heat. There are no regional breakdowns but the sample size was much bigger than the Viewpoints poll - 1,000 vs. under 600. That said, this poll is not all bad news for Team Orange: the undecideds favour the NDP. Selinger beats McFadyen handily on the leadership/approval front. The Tory vote is generally less efficient than the NDP vote, so even a tie in the popular vote is likely to produce a narrow NDP majority (as happened in 1986).
Plus even the Free Press seems to be taking this poll with a grain of salt:
The non-random nature of online polling makes it impossible to determine statistically how accurately the results reflect the opinions of the population at large.
Although Viewpoints is clearly connected to the NDP, they are a local firm which has done a ton of polling on Manitoba politics. I'd trust their local expertise more than a bunch of number-crunchers playing with computers in faraway Toronto.
The results of this poll are similar to the one that came out just before the 1999 election that had the NDP and the Tories in a dead heat at 42 percent with the Liberals a distant third. The NDP won 45 percent and 32 seats on election day versus 40 percent and 24 seats for the Tories.
Looks like the Probe/Free Press poll may be the tie-breaker. Either way, it's going to be a close election. I am still standing by my prediction of 30 NDP, 27 PC, but the message for NDPers to take away from this is: Work like hell until next Tuesday!
Leeann Rowat would be an effective leader and would make any government slip-ups stick, plus she would also eat into the female demographic that the NDP relies on, but I have doubts as to whether the power brokers within the party would allow that. Kind of like how they ended Denis Rocan's political career.
Is there a history of such on-line polls being close to predicting anything? I think the Freep should have taken a kilo of salt given its nature. I have suspicions about both polls; I am rarely out and about but it seems like fewer people are talking about this election that I can recall in the past 2o-some years of provincial elections. More apathy, more complacency, less connection to it, less discussion amongst the plebes than I can recall. All of the parties playing to a mythical middle could be part of that.
Well, I guess I spoke too soon - the Environics poll for CP has the Tories with a slight lead, which I suspect is within the margin of error:
PC 45
NDP 42
Lib 10
Basically, it's a dead heat. There are no regional breakdowns but the sample size was much bigger than the Viewpoints poll - 1,000 vs. under 600. That said, this poll is not all bad news for Team Orange: the undecideds favour the NDP. Selinger beats McFadyen handily on the leadership/approval front. The Tory vote is generally less efficient than the NDP vote, so even a tie in the popular vote is likely to produce a narrow NDP majority (as happened in 1986).
Plus even the Free Press seems to be taking this poll with a grain of salt:
The non-random nature of online polling makes it impossible to determine statistically how accurately the results reflect the opinions of the population at large.
Although Viewpoints is clearly connected to the NDP, they are a local firm which has done a ton of polling on Manitoba politics. I'd trust their local expertise more than a bunch of number-crunchers playing with computers in faraway Toronto.
The results of this poll are similar to the one that came out just before the 1999 election that had the NDP and the Tories in a dead heat at 42 percent with the Liberals a distant third. The NDP won 45 percent and 32 seats on election day versus 40 percent and 24 seats for the Tories.
Looks like the Probe/Free Press poll may be the tie-breaker. Either way, it's going to be a close election. I am still standing by my prediction of 30 NDP, 27 PC, but the message for NDPers to take away from this is: Work like hell until next Tuesday!
but it seems like fewer people are talking about this election that I can recall in the past 2o-some years of provincial elections. More apathy, more complacency, less connection to it, less discussion amongst the plebes than I can recall. All of the parties playing to a mythical middle could be part of that.
And voter fatigue, with the civic election last fall and the federal in spring.
But I just read an article on the CBC web-site stating that advance voter turnout is much higher than in the previous provincial election.
Doesn't that usually mean a higher turnout on voting day?
Doesn't that usually mean a higher turnout on voting day?
Not necessarily. It could mean (and the facts will probably bear this out) that those who wanted to vote will vote earlier instead of on election day without much change in overall numbers.
I was in Brandon for part of the campaign, and when I was there, it seemed to me that there were about as many signs on private property as there were on public. Heck, it seems there were even more signs on private property during the 2006 municipal elections than what I saw recently, and municipal turn-out is generally lower than provincial.
Looks like the NDP will win. The final Probe poll says the NDP leads 46-43 with a mammoth lead in Winnipeg!
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/provincial-election/ndp-clingin...
Assuming the poll results are a) accurate and b) hold. Last sprint to the ballot box.
Shades of 1999, when the last poll had the NDP and Tories in a dead heat at 42 percent. Final numbers were 45 NDP to 40 PC, which was good for 32 seats for the NDP. The Probe poll is closer to the Environics poll, but Environics was in the field after Viewpoints, so it's possible that the NDP slipped in the days following the Viewpoints poll and then regained a bit of ground recently. When the polling is this close, either party could realistically get anything from 40 to 50 percent of the vote on election day, depending on turnout, margins of error, etc.
The bad news for the Tories is that they need to beat the NDP by a good 6 or 7 points in the popular vote to win a majority. They are also not gaining ground where they need to - ie, Winnipeg. I fully expect them to gain a few seats outside the Perimeter - they will win the new La Verendrye for sure, and have a few other serious possibilities in Brandon East, Dauphin and Dawson Trail, maybe even Gimli, Interlake and Swan River. I don't see a pickup of more than 3 seats at the absolute most. More likely is that the Tories will just run up even bigger majorities in the 'yellow dog' rural seats they already hold.
Probe and the Free Press did their usual darndest to downplay the negatives for the Tories, but there's no sugar-coating the Winnipeg numbers - the Tories are nearly 20 points back and are trailing everywhere except the southwest, where they have a statistically insignificant lead. (Although I would imagine these 'regional breakdown' sample sizes are pretty small, so we should probably not read *too* much into them.)
The northwest Winnipeg numbers are interesting. Jim Rondeau won Assiniboia by huge margins in 2003 and 2007, so even with 'star candidate' Susan Auch running for the Tories, that's a tough hill for them to climb. I suspect the Tories are more of a threat in Kirkfield Park (a seat the NDP never won before 2007) and in St. James, where there is no incumbent. Those southeast numbers have to be discouraging for the Tories, because they've put such a big push into seats like Seine River, Riel and Southdale. With those kinds of numbers, it's hard to see them winning those seats. Similarly, there's no indication that the Tories are going to replicate their success at the federal level in northeast Winnipeg, which probably speaks more about the weakness of Jim Maloway as a federal candidate than the NDP 'brand'. At this point, I think the Tories have got St. Norbert in the bag as a pickup, and I suspect they will likely regain Kirkfield Park as well as snatching River Heights from Gerrard. But they've got uphill battles to defeat the NDP just about everywhere else in the city.
In the end result, I think we're going to see a result very similar to 1999, but slightly closer. I still believe the NDP will win 30-31 seats, the Tories 26-27, and the Liberals will be lucky to re-elect Gerrard.
Despite Navakshoff's gaffe on the flood, the person who won the PC nomination earlier was punted and is running as an independent, so the NDP should hold that one. Brandon East is looking like the NDP will squeak by, and there is a good shot at the NDP re-taking Brandon-West (which, to your point about how well the Tories need to do in Winnipeg, makes it that much harder for them). Portage and Lac du Bonnet would also definitely be in play if we were at a different point in the political cycle.
The Liberals may well take Fort Rouge, but if they do it will be entirely due to the work that Paul Hesse has done and has nothing to do with the Liberal brand itself.
If these results hold, the main take-away is that Sellinger would not have won, McFadyen would have lost. People are tired of the NDP after 12 years, but feel it better to "stick with the devil they know," especially since Manitoba has not been as hard hit by the recession as other areas, and the fact that McFadyen has not done well. Additionally, no third party has emerged to shake up the status quo, and I suspect that the Greens could very well overtake the Liberals as Manitoba's third party. This is reflected in the fact that people's impressions of all the political parties has worsened over the course of the campaign.
Looking ahead, I expect the NDP to lose in 2015. 16 years is a long time, and this is not Alberta. Additionally, Manitoba is in for a tough time, considering that more economic fall-out is around the corner and the bill for this year's flood has yet to come. I also have a strong suspicion that Harper will cut severely cut transfer payments in the coming years, and I expect that Manitoba especially will be targeted in that regard. We'll probably see something similar to what happened in Saskatchewan, in that I expect support for the Manitoba NDP to collapse below the Tories in the next year and to stay there.
I can only hope in this climate that the NDP manages to defeat Sam Katz municipally in 2014 and can also send the majority of Manitoba's Conservative MPs packing in 2015.
Just saw the Brandon Sun headline for Friday September 30, 2011. In big bold letters, it reads:
"NDP 4-PEAT?"
Good point about Brandon West. The Tories are also defending a very slim majority of 50 votes in River East, so that's not in the bag for them either.
I have usually been pretty impressed with Paul Hesse as a candidate (regardless of party affiliation) and as a spokesman/activist for urban issues. I would have liked to have seen him run for City Council, rather than running against one of the NDP's more progressive/left-leaning ministers in Jen Howard. I think he will do well, and against a weaker candidate I think he would very likely win, but everyone thought he had a real shot in Fort Rouge last time when it was an open seat, and Jen Howard still won fairly comfortably. This time he's running against an incumbent cabinet minister and the Liberals are polling in single digits. We might be surprised on election night, but right now I just don't see it.
To make things worse for the Liberals, John Harvard and Anita Neville have both issued a statement endorsing Theresa Oswald over Gord Steeves in Seine River. Harvard also issued a statement endorsing Sharon Blady in Kirkfield Park. Both have urged Liberals to vote 'strategically' for the NDP in those ridings to ensure the Tories don't win. What's left of the federal party in Manitoba is basically abandoning the provincial wing.
I'm starting to think it might almost be better for the Liberals if Gerrard loses his seat - he would have to resign as leader more or less immediately and that would open the door to some fresh blood like Hesse taking the reins. As it stands, the Liberals are facing total irrelevance - they have slid all the way down to Doug Lauchlan territory (and if you get that reference, you know way too much about Manitoba politics!)
Hesse has had more time to make himself known in his community. Having said that, I think this is more or less correct. While the Liberals have raised pertinent issues like cuts in community policing and rapid transit, most people who follow those issues closely will place the blame on Sam Katz rather than the province. The province can support municipal initiatives and provide incentives, but ultimately cannot force the City of Winnipeg to do anything. As for Hesse, it is too bad that his party affiliation is not helping him, and I agree that with the issues he has raised that civic politics would be a much better fit. He was actually going to run in the civic by-election to replace Brenda Leipsic, but stepped aside for John Orlikow.
If you look at the polling, the Greens are actually statistically tied with the Liberals, and the Greens aren't even running a full slate. I strongly suspect that the Greens will emerge from this election as Manitoba's new third party, given how much trouble the Liberal brand is in.
Is there such a thing as knowing too much about Manitoba politics? :p
He was the Liberal leader in the 1981 general election. (Okay, I didn't actually know that, I had to check Wikipedia.)
And now, crystal ball time. Here's how this prediction works: Any riding not named is predicted to stay with the same party, those ridings that are named are predicted to change from 2007. The changes include:
Brandon West: PC ---> NDP
Tyndall Park: Liberal ---> NDP
River East: PC ---> NDP
Kirkfield Park: NDP ---> PC
River Heights: Liberal ---> PC
Riel: NDP ---> PC
St. Norbert: NDP ---> PC
Showing a net swing from 2007 of:
NDP even
PC +2
Liberals -2
Leaving us with:
NDP 38
PC 21
Liberals eliminated
Any other predictions?
He was the Liberal leader in the 1981 general election. (Okay, I didn't actually know that, I had to check Wikipedia.)
He was also a candidate in Calgary during the 1979 Federal Election. I remember his print ads: "Hello, I'm Doug Lauchlan."
Aristotle, from the beginning of your post, you've predicted they won't change hands, but I'm interested as to who you're perceiving as holding the seats of Dawson Trail and La Verendrye. I seem to remember reading that Ron Lemieux is running in Dawson Trail, since his current riding of La Verendrye was drastically changed in the last redistribution, and he thought he'd be more easily re-elected there (Dawson Trail) than in La Verendrye. And, in all honesty, I don't see very many people seriously predicting that the NDP will hold La Verendrye (Dawson Trail is more contested, predictions-wise).
The Tories will win La Verendrye easily. I expect Lemieux to hold on to Dawson Trail. The result is a wash for the parties because although the Tories nominally 'gain' La Verendrye, they lose a seat in southwest Manitoba (Minnedosa) because of redistribution.
I can't really disagree with any of Aristotle's predictions (except I think he meant NDP 36, PC 21) although I'm not so optimistic about the NDP taking River East and I think the overall result will be somewhat closer to the 1999 election. I think the window of opportunity in River East was there in 2007 when the Tories got an anemic 28 percent in Winnipeg, but with them bouncing back (such as it is) to around 35 percent, Mitchelson should scrape through again. I didn't think Riel was more vulnerable than say Southdale or Seine River, but it wouldn't shock me as Christine Melnick is by far the weakest cabinet minister.
I made that call because of the politics of active transportation.
I dunno. I admit I haven't lived there for a decade, but people in North Kildonan were pretty car-obsessed when I lived there. A few speed bumps were enough to end the career of Mark Lubosch, but I'd be surprised if a promise to create a safe crossing for a bike trail had the same kind of traction.
That being said, I am sure that Kurt Penner, who I have known for many years and who I know to be a very hard worker, has been diligently working the riding since his near-miss last time. And it may be that voters finally decide that Bonnie has passed her best-before date - she's been there for 25 years after all. Hard to say how the boundary tweaks will change things - the riding picked up some NDP-friendly territory along Donwood Drive from Rossmere, but there have also been a lot of McMansions going up in the new subdivisions along Headmaster and Bonner between Gateway and DeVries.
Ghoris, are you familiar with the bike path built on what used to be the Marconi rail line? That path basically ends at the Perimeter. There are also bike path improvements in Birds Hill Provincial Park, including a bridge that crosses Highway 59 and is on the same side of Highway 59 as the Marconi trail. Certainly Kildonan doesn't fit the urban/cycling/hippie kind of area that you would expect in Wolseley or Fort Rouge, but biking in Birds Hill Provincial Park is a popular activity. For cyclists to currently try and cross the Perimeter is dangerous, and I could easily see this idea resonating in the area, especially for those who may wish to take children with them, even if they drive their SUVs all over the city for work during the week.
I'm quite familiar with the bike path because it is within sight of my parents' house. It seems to be reasonably popular (at least for the four months of the year when it's pleasant to bike outside). The idea might get some traction, but I'll bet you dollars to donuts most of the people who bike in Birds' Hill Park are throwing the bikes in the back of the SUV and driving up there, and are going to continue to do so regardless of whether there's a crossing at the Perimeter or not. I'm not saying it's not a good idea or that it won't be a vote-getter, I just don't think it's likely to be a 'headline-grabbing' promise in most people's minds.
dp.
tp.
I wasn't aware that Election Act changes meant that we no longer receive voter registration cards, and instead, everyone is now enumerated before all provincial elections. I found this out yesterday when I was asking about my voter registration card. When I inquired today at Elections Manitoba, they claimed that 18 units had been enumerated in our building. We have [edited: 31] units.
I phoned my NDP constituency office to let them know, and the woman answering the phone said "well, apartment buildings can be very hard to enumerate..." (there isn't an appropriate emoticon for this except "omfg")
I phoned the NDP provincial head office and the woman on the phone there didn't seem to understand the implications either. She told me I could phone the constituency office and/or Elections Manitoba to find out where I vote. (I already know where I vote.) I asked her to consider the possibility that ours is not the only apartment building that has not been properly enumerated. She said "well, you must have had candidates coming through there." No. "Nobody was in the building?" The Liberals dropped off some pamphlets. "Well, most people know where to go vote." WTF? Do they think apartment dwellers only vote liberal and conservative or something? I'm in West Broadway. Probably not.
This is a serious breakdown of communications on Elections Manitoba's part, and a serious breakdown of basic comprehension on the NDP's part.
No they're not. Elections Manitoba buzzes the caretaker's number and announces him or herself. By law, they must let them in. They then go and knock on all the doors and ask the relevant questions. If nobody's home, they slip something under the door saying the occupant, "sorry I missed you, but you need to register to vote, here's how."
Do you know of anyone else who has had a similar experience? You should definitely say something about it.
I will pursue this, Aristotleded. Any suggestions as to who I should contact who I haven't already? And isn't it bizarre the reaction I got from both NDP offices??
How far up the Elections Manitoba food chain have you gone? Maybe you should find some other people this happened to and get rabble.ca to publish it?
edited.
I think part of the problem is that the NDP assumes they are going to win your area anyways, and are "picking their battles." If this happened in the south end of the city or in Brandon, I think you would get a much different response. I'm not saying that's right, but that's unfortunately how things go when the crunch comes.
Yes, I think that's true. Plus it being the day before election. I was mainly commenting on the obtuseness of the NDP office personnel.
However, if it can be shown that ours was not the only building that was incompletely enumerated, isn't there a legal problem here?
Thanks for the report, jas. I actually thought they did away with door-to-door enumeration some time ago, instead relying on the national register of electors which is updated through data gathered from Revenue Canada, HRDC, etc. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "voter registration cards" - are you talking about the card you get in the mail from Elections Manitoba showing you where and when to go vote? If so, I am surprised that they would not send out these voting cards. I recall our family being enumerated in Manitoba in the past and we always got polling cards in the mail to bring with us to vote, so we knew where to go and what polling subdivision we were in. (In my experience, the voting cards are intended to help the DROs as much as the voters.)
Hugh has been spending a lot of time lately in what he has identified as five 'targets' for the PCs in Winnipeg: Assiniboia, Radisson, Rossmere, St. James and St. Vital. I suspect these are 'second-tier' targets since I would have thought that seats like Dawson Trail, Kirkfield Park, Seine River, Southdale and St. Norbert were the most vulnerable. Even out of this group, St. Vital is quite safe for the NDP, and Radisson should be reasonably safe. Rossmere used to be a very competitive NDP-PC seat in the past but has not been close since 1999. Assiniboia will be a lot closer this time, I expect, but Jim Rondeau has a huge personal following in the riding and parachute candidate Susan Auch has a huge mountain of nearly 3,000 votes to overcome. St. James is competitive because it is an open seat, but I give the NDP a slight edge at the moment.
I have been labouring over my predictions for tomorrow. I was thinking it was going to be a real squeaker along the lines of 30 NDP to 27 Tories, but going seat-by-seat, I am having a hard time seeing how the Tories get more than 6 net gains. There is definitely a 'time for a change' sentiment out there, but I don't think the Tories have closed the deal to really motivate people to actually get out and vote against the NDP. From what I read in the media, a lot of people who have indicated they are going to vote Conservative have also said they are holding their noses, which means that many of them may simply stay home. Turnout will likely be low which historically has tended to favour incumbents. Plus I think we might see some additional last-minute leakage of what's left of the Liberal vote to the NDP, following the Harvard/Neville endorsement.
I am probably predicting with my heart rather than my head here, but my final numbers, for what they are worth, are NDP 32, PC 25, Liberal 0.
NDP: Assiniboia, Brandon East, Burrows, Concordia, Dawson Trail, Elmwood, Flin Flon, Fort Garry-Riverview, Fort Richmond, Fort Rouge, Gimli, Interlake, Kewatinook, Kildonan, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, Radisson, Riel, Rossmere, Seine River, Selkirk, St. Boniface, St. James, St. Johns, St. Vital, Swan River, The Maples, The Pas, Thompson, Transcona, Tyndall Park, Wolseley.
PC: Agassiz, Arthur-Virden, Brandon West, Charleswood, Dauphin, Emerson, Fort Whyte, Kirkfield Park, La Verendrye, Lac du Bonnet, Lakeside, Midland, Morden-Winkler, Morris, Portage La Prairie, Riding Mountain, Riel, River East, River Heights, Southdale, Spruce Woods, St. Norbert, St. Paul, Steinbach, Tuxedo.
Liberals: Goose egg!
An Angus Reid poll out today almost exactly mirrors the Probe poll: NDP 46, PC 43, Liberals 8, Greens 3.
The NDP leads in Winnipeg with 51%, while the Tories dominate rurally with 53%.
The Tories' retention rate from 2007 is 88% versus the NDP's 78%. The Liberal and Green retention rates are dismal - the Liberals have held only half their 2007 vote and the Greens only a third. This suggests to me that the NDP has managed to squeeze some more votes out of what's left of the Liberal party to offset former NDP voters defecting to the Tories.
There is some troubling news for the NDP in that Tory support is firmer (82% of declared Tory voters will stick with them vs. 75% of NDP voters). Fully half of Liberal voters say they may yet change their minds before tomorrow. This could be a real wild card when it's this close.
Thanks for the report, jas. I actually thought they did away with door-to-door enumeration some time ago, instead relying on the national register of electors which is updated through data gathered from Revenue Canada, HRDC, etc. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "voter registration cards" - are you talking about the card you get in the mail from Elections Manitoba showing you where and when to go vote? If so, I am surprised that they would not send out these voting cards. I recall our family being enumerated in Manitoba in the past and we always got polling cards in the mail to bring with us to vote, so we knew where to go and what polling subdivision we were in. (In my experience, the voting cards are intended to help the DROs as much as the voters.)
I don't understand it either. Having that physical piece in the mail helps bring more attention to the election, which, this year, could be easily missed by many.
Anyway, I'm a moron. I miscounted the units in my building (they number 1 - 38, plus basement units, but there are only eight per floor and four floors!
).
EM's only error may have been simply that they didn't leave appropriate notification for several of us that they'd been by.
(Not only that, I didn't even notice that I'd posted the same message three times today.)
Editing my posts to prevent any future reference to my moron-ity.
Ghoris, I'm curious why you think Dauphin and Brandon West will go PC tomorrow night?
Just a gut feeling. I could be totally wrong on both of those, but for the last two elections we have seen a real polarization between Winnipeg and the rest of the province, with Winnipeg being more and more likely to vote NDP and the rest of the province (outside of the North) more and more likely to vote Conservative. If the Tories are polling at 53% outside the Perimeter, and are basically not on the radar screen in the North, then it stands to reason that they are gaining votes somewhere. Dauphin was a relatively close call last time (900 votes), much closer than 'traditional' rural swing seats like Gimli. I think the Tories have the edge in Brandon West as an incumbent seat that has traditionally voted Tory since its creation (1981, 1999 and 2003 being the only exceptions).
In the old days, it was a straight-up north-south division both inside Winnipeg and out, and the swing seats all fell right along the dividing line. But in the last two elections, we've seen rural seats that the NDP would traditionally win when it formed the government (such as Lac du Bonnet, Springfield, Ste. Rose) have stayed resolutely in the Tory category to the point where all of these seats are now out of reach for the NDP. Traditionally 'safe' rural NDP seats like Dauphin and Selkirk have become less so in recent election cycle. As you and I have discussed at length, the NDP's strength in Brandon East has been slowly but steadily eroding in the past 15 years to the point where a formerly safe seat has become competitive. Meanwhile, inside the Perimeter, you've got the NDP winning formerly 'safe as houses' Tory seats like Kirkfield Park, Assiniboia, Fort Garry, Southdale, St. Norbert and Seine River that the NDP wouldn't have dared dream it could win a decade ago. I think the political ground is shifting in Manitoba and from now on we are going to be seeing a pattern similar to Saskatchewan, with polarization on an urban-rural basis.
I would hope that we don't go down the same road Saskatchewan did, because what we see in Saskatchewan makes it very difficult for the NDP to win, given the large number of rural seats. The federal election showed that racking up majorities in the cities and crossing your fingers doesn't work.
As for the numbers there, what I hope that means is that the PCs will only win with larger margins in seats they already hold. I'm not sure if the voters in Dauphin want to throw out their Cabinet representation, with polls suggesting that the province's major population centre will re-elect this government. I've also argued that the star of the NDP is rising in Brandon, with the election of Shari Decter-Hirst to the mayor's chair, and if she keeps on her current path, she will be Brandon's mayor as long as she wants. Waddell is coming on strong in Brandon East, but it has more to do with a personal appeal than anything else. Speaking of Brandon East, it's quite obvious that Caldwell will never see the inside of the NDP Cabinet again, so the only way for Brandon to be represented at the Cabinet table is to vote for Jim Murray. Portage has also shown NDP strength in recent elections, and if the NDP was at a different point in the political cycle, it would almost certainly go NDP.
I'm not willing to write off the rural areas yet. Just 2 elections ago, the NDP was thought to have serious chances of breaking through in the rural southwest, and I wonder how history might have changed if that breakthrough materialized, and I live in hope with the rise of the NDP fortunes in Brandon. Portage will probably elect an NDP MLA one day if the NDP keeps working at it, and who knows if increased spending in areas like health care, the medical school in Brandon (McFadyen actually gaffed by suggesting it might not be feasible), and infrastructure may soften some of the hard opposition the NDP faces.
Wow that is gonna be a real nailbiter of an election night!
Manitoba NDP’s ‘Harper-esque’ ads could help the party earn its fourth consecutive majority
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/manitoba-ndp-harper-esque...
I've just looked through old constituency boundaries courtesy of Wikipedia, from 1969 onwards. It looks to me like the North has been losing population and clout. For example, while St. Rose may have once been winnable for the NDP, it has now been lumped into the much larger Aggasiz constituency, which extends all the way south to Highway 1. Dauphin has been taking on more of the Tory polls, hence the name Dauphin-Roblin. I suspect Springfield is now more of a bedroom community for rich people who want country living while commuting to Winnipeg (there was recently a controversey in that area over a group home going in). Sure things are changing in Winnipeg, but I think the NDP component of those northern ridings you mentioned is becoming more diluted.
That article is ridiculous. Calling someone out on their party's track record - how "Harper-esque"! :rolleyes:
It takes a fair degree of intellectual dishonesty to compare the NDP's ads to the "Just Visiting" attack ads lauched against Ignatieff. The distinction between attacking someone's policies and attacking them personally seems to be lost on the author.
I would hope that we don't go down the same road Saskatchewan did, because what we see in Saskatchewan makes it very difficult for the NDP to win, given the large number of rural seats. The federal election showed that racking up majorities in the cities and crossing your fingers doesn't work.
There are some very key differences though. 60% of the population of Manitoba live sin Winnipeg - Saskatchewan is much less dominated by Regina and Saskatoon. Manitoba also has 4 or 5 remote northern ridings that are supersafe NDP - Saskatchewan just has two.
Naturally I would love to see the NDP win more seats in rural MB - but the fact is that the Tories are the ones with a really big problem not being able to crack Wpg or the north. I'd rather be in the NDP's position than theirs. Every redistribution will see a seat added in Wpg and one subtracted from the depopulating rural areas.
BTW: Here are the full results of the Angus-Reid poll. Its worth noting that their last poll on vote intention in MB back in June gave the Tories a 12 point lead!
http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.03_Manitoba...
Stockholm, I know you don't think rural voters matter, and parties do have different levels of strength in different regions, but any party that writes off large regions of a particular area are in for trouble. The fact is, Winnipeg has approximately half of the seats in the Legislature, and the attitudes of the suburbanites are very right-wing. These people are the reason Sam Katz was re-elected as mayor, despite his well-documented mis-steps on nearly every issue that Winniepg faces. Also, the way Winnipeg is developing and growing is giving more strength to the right-wing suburbs while the left-wing urban areas are losing clout. My MLA practically had her constituency eliminated in the re-distrubution, while that same re-distrubution put many Tory-friendly polls into a previously safe NDP seat while leaving the other safe Tory seats in Winnipeg intact. As for the "safe" northern seats, see my previous post about the NDP areas of the North losing clout as re-distribution drags those boundaries further south. And the fact is, the NDP almost won seats in the rural southwest 8 years ago.
I agree with you that it's dangerous to write off whole regions and that the NDP should not completely turn its back on rural voters. That being said, even in the high-water-mark election of 2003 (in terms of rural support), just one rural seat changed hands (Gimli - a bellweather that bucked the trend in 99). I'm all for trying to reach out to voters in southern Manitoba, but getting nothing but the middle finger in return time and again gets a little tiresome after a while.
Rural results from 2003:
Arthur-Virden: 42%
Lac du Bonnet: 45%
Lakeside: 39%
Minnedosa: NDP loses by 13 votes
Portage la Prairie: 42%, same in 2007
Russell: 41%
I get the frustration about the NDP not doing well in rural areas, having lived in Brandon for a good number of years. But these are very strong results. Look at Portage, where the NDP did very well the last 2 times in what is traditionally an NDP dead zone. The needle is moving slowly, but I think under the right conditions, they can move into the NDP column, and I still think that strong NDP showings in Brandon and Portage may have a halo effect on surrounding areas.
You also have to remember that in rural constituencies, incumbency and local party networks play a larger role than party ideology and provincial leaders, because social life is far more inter-connected than what you would find in a city. Conversely, a party wave in one direction or the other can easily take out a hard-working MLA in an urban area simply by being in the wrong party. Some of these PC guys have been around a long time, and would have a huge advantage regardless. Look at Minnedosa, where the PCs almost lost the seat in 2003 because the incumbent had stepped down, and yet held the seat more comfortably in 2007 because the PC MLA had 4 years to make herself known to people. And for the NDP to have strong results like those in PC incumbent seats is pretty impressive.
Fair enough, but as they say, close is only good enough in horseshoes and hand grenades. In 2007 the NDP was generally down across the board in rural Manitoba, Portage being an exception. And I'd venture to guess that the NDP's recent strength in Portage and Brandon vis-a-vis other constituencies outside the Perimeter has more than a little to do with the fact that these seats are each centred on a single large population centre and are not particularly 'rural' in that sense. A constituency like Brandon West has a lot more in common with, say, Assiniboia than it does with the Spruce Woods constituency that surrounds it.
Bump! It's election day!
http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.03_Manitoba_Vote.pdf
Interesting to note that in a national ARS poll from ~1 month ago, Selinger had the 3rd highest approval rating of any premier in the country! And that helps bring the party preference votes up.
More interesting is that on the economy, job creation, and managing the deficit the NDP LEADS the PC's! These are all so-called right-wing issues, which one would expect the PC's to lead in.
And the MB PC leader is a dud. No wonder so many moderate voters, esp. in Winnipeg, who might be natural PC supporters are now comfortably aligned with the NDP. What's not to like?
I had predicted that the NDP will win a 4-peat before the election began. Gonna be a fun night!
Polls close 8 PM Manitoba time?
How's voter turnout? Heavy?
Is your coverage streaming online anywhere?
I think they're pulling the vote ;o)
Polls close 8 PM Manitoba time?
How's voter turnout? Heavy?
Despite the high advanced poll turnout and a beautiful day (29 degrees apparently), I'm hearing it's been pretty slow...
I agree with you that it's dangerous to write off whole regions and that the NDP should not completely turn its back on rural voters. That being said, even in the high-water-mark election of 2003 (in terms of rural support), just one rural seat changed hands (Gimli - a bellweather that bucked the trend in 99). I'm all for trying to reach out to voters in southern Manitoba, but getting nothing but the middle finger in return time and again gets a little tiresome after a while.
NDP has surged to second place in southwestern ontario - traditionally royal blue. I do not recommend ever giving up. Strategize and campaign four years out.
BTW, I am watching CBC Manitoba's coverage here: http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canada/Manitoba/1304130959/ID=2141255983
The Free Press also has streaming coverage on its website: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com
As I write this, the CBC website has the Tories leading in 4 of 8 seats, with the NDP over 50% of the vote.
Its way too early, wait until at least 9:45
Edit: This race is going to be very tight, best of luck to the NDP!
NDP is in the lead, but by riding and not popular vote, if I'm reading the stats correctly.
Very few polls from Winnipeg so pop vote reflects that
33 ndp 22 pc 0 l
NDP down 3 seats PC up 5 Lib down 2 PCs need to gain 12 seats -- are not doing it
vote 48% PC 43% NDP
Chief's doing fine in Point Douglas. That's nice to see.
Based on the results with 10/67 polls in, it looks like Lac du Bonnet is going to be a nailbiter.
8 ridings closer than 50 votes and 16 closer than 200 that is reason there is no call yet
Current numbers:
NDP 36
PC 19
LIB 1
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/live-manitoba-provincial-...
Liberals have only 7% in vote-- leader hanging on
NDP Majority has been called
Majority declared.
I think the recent federal success has helped the NDP brand.
Very close popular vote. PC's appear to be ahead slightly in popular vote.
Liberals declared re-elected in their one seat held by leader Jon Gerrard.
Can someone from Manitoba explain how it is the NDP can win a lot of seats in South Winnipeg in provincial elections, yet the area is a dead zone for the NDP federally?
Congrats to Greg Selinger and the Manitoba NDP!
Its a very hard act to come out of Gary Doer's shadow, a man who was deeply charismatic and connected with the spirit of Manitobans. He truely captured all centre-leaning voters and got a popular vote of around 49.5%. Previously, Selinger's govt was polling around the 20s, and pushed forward to victory.
But now a deeper question remains, should the Manitoba NDP push PR? I think the right wing may hop on board with this. AV might be a possibility.
Kerri Irvin-Ross won! Woo hoo!
This is actually a surprising result precisely in its sameness. I did think there'd be more nailbiting, and was even hoping for some excitement. It's a very solid endorsement for the NDP.
So are any Manitoba PC backers screaming about "gerrymandering" yet?
(on edit)
Btw, CBC now finally showing the NDP ahead in the popular vote. Wonder if that trend will continue the rest of the night.
Still a very close popular vote, but the NDP has inched ahead now.
NDP 45.48%
PC 44.37%
Liberals declared re-elected in their one seat held by leader Jon Gerrard.
Why would they run Hesse against Jennifer Howard? That's a waste of a candidate.
Selinger is actually looking at net gain of one seat. The Tories are currently trailing in St. Norbert, which I figured was an easy pickup for them. As it stands, the Tories have gained ZERO seats in Winnipeg. The only change has been that the NDP has gained one seat from the Liberals.
Spoke too soon. Kirkfield and St. Norbert just flipped to the Tories, but margins are extremely close.
Woohoo!
CBC is reporting that in the mock votes for high school students, NDP wins 34 seats. Greens come third.
That's encouraging, too.
Brandon West narrowly called for the PCs. Fingers crossed for a re-count.
What an asshole Don Plett is - "When you win 44% of the vote, you should be in government!" and calling the NDP a "campaign of fear". You don't win government with 44% when the other guys get 46%, dummy. Wow, they are SUPER-bitter right now.
Only 3 seats outstanding:
Tories lead in Kirkfield Park by 53 votes.
Tories lead in St. Norbert by 18 votes.
NDP leads in Interlake by 340 votes.
Selinger just interrupted Hugh's speech. Bad form. Guess they were pissed Hugh took so long to concede.
Do you think all the happiness around the Jets had something to do with it, too? (...and the awesome summer we had...?
)
Selinger' speech cut over McFadyen's.
McFadyen announces he's stepping down?
Don't let the door hit you on the way out, Hugh!
Interestingly, Hugh got more votes (percentage-wise) than Gary Filmon did in either 1995 or 1999, in which the Tories got 31 and 24 seats, respectively (versus 19-21 tonight, depending on the outcomes in St. Norbert and Kirkfield Park).
The Tories have no leader waiting in the wings and they still have a caucus full of deadwood. They are going to spend some more time in the wilderness.
Absolutely. Selinger mentioned that in his ads. Maybe not the Jets per se, but the overall sense of optimism.
Lou asked why the NDP won in South Winnipeg while they don't do well federally, and I'm confused that the same people who just re-elected Greg failed to elect Judy last year. What happened?
Here is my take. The common thread is that since last year, Winnipeggers have re-elected the incumbent administrations at the civic, provincial, and federal levels, because of that optimism. Much of the provincial win was on the back of Doer's popularity, and that machinery was allowed to grow roots into the communities. Obviously many who voted for Harper and Kazt voted for Selinger.
There's an elephant in the room. This election was McFadyen's to lose, and he did. There was a sense that people were tired of the NDP, the NDP was trailing in the polls, and McFadyen should have been able to ride that to victory. He knew that the NDP was going to go after him on privatizing health care, I have no idea why he wasn't able to effectively counter that. Here are his other mis-steps:
So what now that he has stepped down? Obviously they need new leadership, but I'm not sure the power-brokers will allow what the PC Party needs. Remember that Stuart Murray was told to back off the Crocus scandal in the early 2000s, and had the PCs gone after that, they could have done better. I think someone like Leeann Rowatt would do wonders, she would cut into middle class women's votes that go NDP, and she's likeable. Who else could it be?
It seemed to work for Grant Devine in 1986
Who else could it be?
Well, they're talking Myrna Driedger...
Really happy with this outcome, because it reinforces the fact that the NDP are good financial stewards.
NDP back in the lead in St. Norbert - 150 votes up with just 4 polls to go!
Sharon Blady still trailing by 50 votes in Kirkfield Park. Those last two polls are taking *forever* to count - must be advance polls, or maybe they're recounting them.
Nevakshonoff re-elected in Interlake by about 500 votes.
An astounding result.
What an asshole Don Plett is - "When you win 44% of the vote, you should be in government!" and calling the NDP a "campaign of fear". You don't win government with 44% when the other guys get 46%, dummy. Wow, they are SUPER-bitter right now.
Looks like the NDP won over 60% of the seats and the Tories won just over a third of them, despite being within 2 points of each other in the popular vote. Let's hear it for FPTP!
What is Jon Gerrard like politically? I heard he was actually more progressive on social issues than the NDP in Manitoba - is that true?
Dr. Gerrard has spoken a great deal about the shortcomings of health care, and what he feels the NDP can do to be more pro-active and preventive. He raises a great deal of civic issues, like cuts to community policing and the lack of rapid transit, but most people who follow those issues place the blame on the city. On education, I don't think he has ever supported the tuition freeze. As for finance, he leans more towards the right, talking about making Manitoba "competitive" or being a "have province (whatever that's supposed to mean) and he is in favour of reducing "job killing" pay-roll taxes.
Sharon Blady still trailing by 50 votes in Kirkfield Park. Those last two polls are taking *forever* to count - must be advance polls, or maybe they're recounting them.
CTV has already called both seats as you stated them.
Will the Manitoba NDP use its renewed majority mandate to bring in proportional representation electoral reform?
Where's Fidel when you need him, to point out that this is a "phony 24% majority"?
Free Press is calling St. Norbert for the NDP but CBC has not made the call. Dave Gaudreau has a 85-vote lead with 2 polls left to report.
NDP leading in Kirkfield Park now by 29 votes with 1 poll left to report.
Free Press and Global calling St. Norbert and Kirkfield Park for the NDP.
My friend just texted me and said Kelly de Groot has conceded in Kirkfield Park.
Looks like the final numbers are 37 NDP (+1), 19 PC (Unchanged), Liberal 1 (-1).
Never did I think that the NDP would *gain* seats this election.
If this regional split in the voting patterns continues in Manitoba, I wonder if, at some point, you'd see right-wing calls for Southern Manitoba (minus Winnipeg, of course)to try and break off from the rest of the province?
I doubt that Ken. I really don't think people in Brandon would go for it. As for why the NDP did poorly there, I think it boils down to 2 things:
1) The NDP is at a point in the political cycle where people are starting to get tired, and the baggage of being in government is beginning to weigh them down. This is a challenge for incumbent seats, as the party has to spend more resources on defense and has fewer resources to allocate to winning over new areas. The fact that the NDP held onto seats, never mind produced a net gain, is mind-boggling.
2) I've said above that rural politics has far less to do with party leaders or ideology and more to do with personal connections and the local party networks. Every incumbent rural MLA won his or her seat quite comfortably, it just so happens that there are more incumbent PCs than there are incumbent NDPers. Have a look at the strong showings the NDP had in rural ridings during its high-water mark in 2003 as posted above. The 2 best ridings for the NDP that year (Minnedosa and Gimli) were also ridings where there was no PC incumbent running.
Hmmm, River East was not particularly close this time. Mitchelson won by 800 votes. That's actually her best result since 1995.
According to Elections Manitoba's website, the NDP won Kirkfield Park by 29 votes and St. Norbert by 157. Guess Selinger door-knocking in St. Norbert was more than a token effort.
The Liberals had such a pitiful night that they finished *fourth* in 11 ridings: Assiniboia, Concordia, Dauphin, Gimli, Interlake, Kewatinook, Lakeside, River East, Rossmere, St. Johns, Wolseley. One wonders if they might have done even worse if the Greens had run a full slate.
In the end result, only one seat changed hands - the NDP gained Tyndall Park (formerly Inkster) from the Liberals. That has to be some kind of record.
Shifting west to Brandon, Drew Caldwell once again wins Brandon East by a comfortable margin despite concerns that have been rasied before, and Jim Murray of the NDP nearly wins Brandon West in an election campaign where the party was primarily concerned with seat losses in the rest of the province.
That, along with last year's election of Shari Decter-Hirst, tells me that there is a future for the NDP in Brandon. But the Brandon NDP is going to have to start thinking seriously about succession plans. Drew Caldwell won't be around forever. Who would take his place? Perhaps local labour council President Jan Chaboyer, which would be great, but she's currently on council, so how does the NDP hold onto that seat municipally? Shari won't be around forever either, so how does the NDP take the top spot in a post-Shari era? Who among the Brandon NDP can take back Errol Black's old council seat, given that I don't see him giving it another run?
A few things to think about.
As for the Tories in Brandon East, even with Mike Waddell and taking on some Tory-friendly polls from Brandon West in the last re-distribution, it seems there is a very low ceiling for the PCs in Brandon East. Yes the PCs have been getting a larger percentage of the vote, but that has everything to do with Drew's vote going down while the PC totals remain relatively flat. It's just not an area where Tories have any appeal, and even federally the NDP wins polls in that part of town.
Will the Manitoba NDP use its renewed majority mandate to bring in proportional representation electoral reform?
Where's Fidel when you need him, to point out that this is a "phony 24% majority"?
A. I think Manitoba and one other province had something like STV several decades ago. We need PR federally in order to do anything about the neoliberalorama that works from the top-down in this once frozen Puerto Rico, which leads to another interesting point about neoliberal ideology,
B. Not only has Manitoba never caused an outbreak of proportional voting in neighboring provinces before, Manitoba is also not an economic powerhouse nor can it set the trend with respect to corporate taxation levels with conservative Alberta on the one side and Liberal Ontario on the other with some of the lowest corporate taxes on the continent. This is how the neoliberalorama works in bananada in case you were wondering. Or perhaps some would just prefer that the conservative party gets their fair share of the vote shake in at least one other province where they are still hampered by past crookery and robbery under the former Divinity Government, oops! I mean Filmon's gang who made sure to pawn off the most profitable public utility to rich friends of the conservative party. I guess the NDP does scare them a little in Saskatchewan where a significant amount of public enterprise is safe in even the Saskatories' hands afraid to pull a Grant Devine of things so soon.
We should absolutely try for PR, though, in:
1.) Canada's most populous province in Puerto Ontario, which is also home to the colonial administrative outpost of Ottawa as well as that other centre of power, Bay Street. They want some proportionalizing on their doorsteps in a major way. Winnipeg doesn't scare them - too far away.
2.) PR at the national level would definitely go a long way toward democratization of our semi-frozen Puerto Rico where even the Polar bears are without pots to piss in and windows to throw it out of. By gum!
PR at the national level would definitely go a long way toward democratization of our semi-frozen Puerto Rico where even the Polar bears are without pots to piss in and windows to throw it out of. By gum!
So the federal NDP (which already has a bigger proportion of seats in the House than its popular vote) would win federal power through the FPTP system, and then pass voting reform legislation to make sure it couldn't possibly ever do that again? Not likely!
PR at the national level would definitely go a long way toward democratization of our semi-frozen Puerto Rico where even the Polar bears are without pots to piss in and windows to throw it out of. By gum!
So the federal NDP (which already has a bigger proportion of seats in the House than its popular vote) would win federal power through the FPTP system, and then pass voting reform legislation to make sure it couldn't possibly ever do that again? Not likely!
Well if you're waiting for the ReformaTories and LIEbranos to do it, you'll be waiting a heckuva long time - at least another 140 years by the looks of things. Perhaps as soon as when heck unfreezes over, which shouldn't be very long at all.
So when will you be putting up lodging for a homeless Polar bear and her baby cubs? They're sweating it out in heck up North, and you want the NDP to give up ground to the Tories in Manitoba. By gum!
I wouldn't write them off just yet. For all their weaknesses, they did come pretty close to beating the NDP in the popular vote, and this is a government whose baggage is only going to get heavier and heavier. Don't forget that there are federal transfers to be negotiated in the next few years, and given Harper's vindictive tendancies, I fully expect Manitoba to be singled out for some pretty harsh treatment from the Feds. Similar to how Mulroney cut transfers which ended up undermining Bob Rae's government, and how some have suggested that Walding was paid off to bring down Howard Pawley.
Fair enough. I guess I'm feeling my oats a bit right now. ;)
Manitoba has, in some respects, become a mirror-image of BC, where the NDP routinely scores in the low-to-mid 40s...and still loses the election because the vote is so polarized that the Socreds/Liberals still manage to best them by a couple of percentage points, which in turn is enough to win the seat count in a straight two-horse race. The conventional wisdom in BC is that the NDP only wins when the 'free enterprise'/non-NDP vote is divided. It's hard to argue with that analysis - for example, the BC NDP actually did worse in terms of popular vote in 1991 than in 1986, but won a two-thirds majority because the other 60% of the vote was divided between the Liberals and the Socreds. Ditto 1996, where the BC NDP lost the popular vote but still won the election.
We are now, I think, seeing the same trend in reverse in Manitoba - the Tories will generally win where the Liberals are doing well enough to peel votes off the NDP. There have been twelve elections in the 'modern' era of Manitoba politics (1969 and after). The NDP has won eight of these (1969, 1973, 1981, 1986, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011) and the Tories four (1977, 1988, 1990, 1995). In the eight elections won by the NDP, the Liberals won a grand total of 17 seats (an average of 2 per election), versus 31 in the four elections won by the Tories (an average of 8 per election). So, for example, in 1990 and 1995 the Tories won majorities (albeit barely) with 42 and 43 percent of the vote - less than they got tonight. The difference was they led the NDP by 13 and 10 points, respectively, because the Liberals were pulling in roughly a quarter of the vote, thus allowing the Tories to take advantage of vote splits.
When the NDP formed government in 1999, the Tories still got a respectable 41 percent of the vote, but the Liberal vote collapsed 11 points from 24 to 13 percent, all of it going to the NDP. (Filmon won 5 more seats than McFadyen did tonight with 3 percent less of the popular vote.) Loathe as I am to agree with someone like Jim Downey, he hit the nail on the head when he said that the continued weakness of the Liberals is the Tories' number-one stumbling block to forming government. As long as it's a polarized two-horse race, the NDP can win healthy majorities with only a slight edge in the popular vote due to the extremely inefficient Tory vote (they won some seats in southern Manitoba with 85 percent of the vote!)
Can't sleep, so I figured I'd crunch some of the election numbers. Here are the 10 closest PC near-misses and the margin they lost by. They would have had to win all of these to win a bare majority.
Kirkfield Park - 29 votes
St. Norbert - 157 votes
Interlake - 460 votes
Kewatinook - 534 votes
Dawson Trail - 730 votes
Southdale - 767 votes
Gimli - 800 votes
Seine River - 931 votes
St. James - 1,008 votes
Fort Richmond - 1,107 votes
Of these ten, only the first two were real 'squeakers', and half of these seats were not even what I'd call particularly 'close'. For example, the Kewatinook number is misleading since the overall total votes cast there are much lower than in other seats.
There is a large cluster of seats just below these 10 which all had roughly 1,200-vote margins - Brandon East, Dauphin, Swan River, Flin Flon, Selkirk and Riel. Again, it's a bit misleading to look at the raw vote totals since a 1,200-vote margin in a riding like Flin Flon is like a 2,500+ vote margin in a Winnipeg seat in terms of the percentage of the vote.
Only one of the PC victories was particularly close - Reg Helwer won Brandon West by a slender 146-vote margin.
In the end result, only one seat changed hands - the NDP gained Tyndall Park (formerly Inkster) from the Liberals. That has to be some kind of record.
Wow.
But very excited to hear about Kirkfield Park this morning. Way to go, Blady. That was a tough one.
Manitoba has, in some respects, become a mirror-image of BC, where the NDP routinely scores in the low-to-mid 40s...and still loses the election because the vote is so polarized that the Socreds/Liberals still manage to best them by a couple of percentage points, which in turn is enough to win the seat count in a straight two-horse race. The conventional wisdom in BC is that the NDP only wins when the 'free enterprise'/non-NDP vote is divided. It's hard to argue with that analysis - for example, the BC NDP actually did worse in terms of popular vote in 1991 than in 1986, but won a two-thirds majority because the other 60% of the vote was divided between the Liberals and the Socreds. Ditto 1996, where the BC NDP lost the popular vote but still won the election.
We are now, I think, seeing the same trend in reverse in Manitoba - the Tories will generally win where the Liberals are doing well enough to peel votes off the NDP.
I think that analysis is correct. What the right wing in BC and Saskatchewan has discovered is that when the baggage gets too heavy they form a new party. In BC the NDP will likely win the next election because the Cons will surge ahead and likely supplant the Liberals in second place. Then in the election after the Liberals will be non existent and the two way race will be back and the NDP will lose by a few percentage points.
Continued here.