The Manitoba NDP and provincial election 2011: strategy - future - futility?

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genstrike

Outside of Russ Wyatt, who else in Steve Ashton's camp has gone over to the Tories?

And I don't think it makes sense for people to be judging Steve Ashton for the sins of Russ Wyatt.  Especially considering it was until only very recently that Wyatt was considered to be perfectly welcome within the NDP.

ghoris

I agree with you that it does not make sense to judge Steve for the 'sins' of some of his backers (if you want to go so far as to call them 'sins'), but IMHO Russ Wyatt has not 'until only very recently been perfectly welcome' within the NDP - I would say he's actually been persona non grata for some time, going all the way back to 1998 with his abrupt last-minute departure from the Transcona council race, which pissed off a *lot* of people in the party, so much so that the NDP and the Labour Council endorsed his opponent in 2002. He was also extremely vocal in his attacks on the government over OlyWest. A lot of NDPers I have talked to also believe he was backing Thomas Steen behind the scenes in the 2008 election and I had certainly heard those rumours at the time. So I was actually quite surprised to see him taking an active role in the party by becoming Steve's campaign chair.

Again, I hear all this second-hand, but it sounds like this is about more than just Russ Wyatt.

Stockholm

Getting back to the issue of what's going to happen in the provincial election this fall. It seems to me that Selinger probably suffered a bit in the beginning because he had to live up to being gary Doer's successor and to a lot of people he was an "under-study". There is evidence that he's making his own imprint now. Even before this Probe poll, the Angus Reid poll had shown a steady climb in Selinger's personal approval numbers and I think that his handling of the flood situation gave him a chance to prove himself - and from what i hear, he gets good marks for this handling of that crisis.

Aristotleded24

The other reason that the NDP has been rising in the polls has to do with recent government announcements like expanding Birds Hill Park and rebuilding high school science labs, so the NDP has had more resources to this point. That advantage is now gone, considering that we are currently in a blackout period for government announcements due to the election. Once the campaign kicks into gear, that natural advantage will evapourate, and the PCs will have much more ammunition. Don't forget that the same key people working on McFadyen's campaign were also in charge of the campaigns that won Sam Katz an election he should have lost, and they are also responsible for the Conservatives picking up Winnipeg South Centre and Elmwood-Transcona. The NDP by contrast, while showing strength in Brandon, have been unable to win in Winnipeg, as evidenced by their failure to take back Winnipeg North.

Interestingly enough, that poll that places the NDP on top also has the Liberals very low. I'm not sure how it will translate, as Dr. Gerrard has the incumbency advantage in River Heights and the numbers aren't broken down geographically, but given recent federal results I think he is in great danger of losing the seat.

Stockholm

It would be nice symbolism to have the Manitoba Liberals completely wiped off the map in Manitoba just like in Saskatchewan.

ghoris

I would not be surprised to see Gerrard lose. The Tories are gunning hard for that seat. Apparently they had well over 500 people out to their nomination meeting.

Aristotleded24

Hey ghoris, did you hear that [url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/our-communities/lance/Steeves-throws-ha... has officially taken the plunge?[/url]

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
Yep, did hear about it. Guess he figures Sam is going to stick around for a while, otherwise he'd be laying the groundwork for a mayoral bid. Should be quite the battle in Seine River. Shows you how irrelevant the Manitoba Liberals have become that a former candidate and longtime member is defecting to the Tories

I've heard that the by-election is not going to be held until October. I suspect Katz is trying to keep the door open for Steeves to return to council if he's defeated.

ghoris wrote:
Some Tories seem to think that her departure makes Swan River a swing seat. It has been in the past, to be sure - Wowchuk barely held on in 1995 and at one point on election night she had been declared defeated. That being said, I believe the boundaries have shifted quite a bit further north since the 80s and 90s, and it's hard to believe the big margins of victory Wowchuk got in the last three elections were solely because of personal popularity.  Nonetheless, the Tories seem to think they have a real shot at a pickup here.

1995 was also a good year for the Filmon Tories in general, and wasn't Swan River one of the targeted ridings in the vote splitting scandal?

ghoris wrote:
Tory supporters like blogger Luc Lewandowski (Hacks & Wonks) are saying that the Tories can win six or new seven seats outside the Perimeter(!), meaning they only have to win as few as three in the city(!!!).  This ignores a few things: (1) the Tories lose a seat with the disappearance of Ste. Rose, (2) the Tories are vulnerable in some seats where their incumbents are retiring, namely Brandon West and Portage, and (3) it's a bit of a stretch to suggest that 20 point (or more) margins from 2007 are now going to completely evaporate in seats like Gimli, Brandon East, Dauphin, Interlake, etc. Do the Tories have a chance to win in these seats? Sure. Are they going to run the table? Doubtful. Again, at the risk of sounding like I have terminal Perimeteritis, I still firmly believe that if the Tories can't pick up more than seven seats in Winnipeg, they have no chance at forming a government.

There is another potential path, and that would be if the Conservatives had a reverse-Orange Crush type breakthrough in Northern Manitoba, but if that trend were possible, I'm quite sure the media would have picked up on it by now. At the very least, Tory bloggers would be talking about their northern momentum.

lil.Tommy

With Both Rosann and Bill retiring, are their any strong candidates that are looking to step up?

Elmwood, from an outsiders view, looks to be pretty safe aswell, could lil'Rebecca be eyeing that seat?

And here in Ontario, all those Liberals falling is a sign that the Grits are in real trouble; do manitobans see the retirement of a number of long time incumbants as a sign the NDP is in trouble? i've seen the polls and it looks like its close, advantage NDP... while here in ontario only a miracle could give the liberals a majority.

jas

lil.Tommy wrote:
and Bill retiring...

Guess I haven't had the radio on today. Didn't see that one coming.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/07/11/mb-blaikie-retire-polit...

 

What is going on with all these retirements? The next legislature is going to look quite a bit different.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Well, the NDP has been either the government or official opposition in Manitoba since the late 1960's.  Such an era is likely to produce a large group of extremely veteran MLA's, and what you're most likely seeing is a generational turnover occurring in conjunction with the transfer from one NDP premier to another.

Stockholm

I think its a good thing to have a lot of NDP old-timers with supersafe seats like Elmwood, Point Douglas etc...stepping down and making room for younger new faces. it sure beats the situation in Saskatchewan where the NDP has all this deadwood in their caucus sitting in safe seats in the cities that refuse to ever get out of the way.

jas

Anyone notice the recent cover stories of the Winnipeg Sun against the provincial NDP?

A few days ago, full front page photo of Greg Selinger with piles of $100 dollar bills photoshopped coming out of all his pockets.

Today's cover was a posed photograph of a woman standing with duct tape over her mouth and holding a picture of a flood-hit home. The headline was something about someone, or apparently people, being "Gagged" from talking about how the NDP has handled the flood situation. (Um, weren't they just criticizing Selinger for spending too much??)

Talk about yellow journalism. (I don't think that's a racist term.) I don't think I've ever seen anything so blatantly and sensationally partisan attempting to pass as news by a city daily.

Aristotleded24

jas wrote:
Anyone notice the recent cover stories of the Winnipeg Sun against the provincial NDP?

A few days ago, full front page photo of Greg Selinger with piles of $100 dollar bills photoshopped coming out of all his pockets.

Today's cover was a posed photograph of a woman standing with duct tape over her mouth and holding a picture of a flood-hit home. The headline was something about someone, or apparently people, being "Gagged" from talking about how the NDP has handled the flood situation. (Um, weren't they just criticizing Selinger for spending too much??)

Talk about yellow journalism. (I don't think that's a racist term.) I don't think I've ever seen anything so blatantly and sensationally partisan attempting to pass as news by a city daily.

You mean the Winnipeg Sun finally figured out that there is a world outside of the Perimiter Highway, and that world is under water? All I ever saw on the front pages of the Winnipeg Sun for the longest time was "JETS JETS JETS!"

2dawall

Uh this has been going on forever with the Sun; its just become more pronounced since the advent of the Sun Network and the Winnipeg Sun's content and cover has been more 'emotionally' consistent with what the Calgary and Toronto Sun are doing. I have noticed dozens of odious covers in the last few months. Their columnist Broadbeck is always going on about the NDP with the odd switch to saying the Tories are too soft on the NDP. All about changing the parameters of the context.

During the 90's when Cho!ces was active, most of that coalition laughed about the need for independent media save Jim Silver. Even some members of the anarko-coolist Mondragon restaurant would denounce the idea that the media had a bias. We are now dealing with the legacy of that attitude at least in part.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jas wrote:
Anyone notice the recent cover stories of the Winnipeg Sun against the provincial NDP?

A few days ago, full front page photo of Greg Selinger with piles of $100 dollar bills photoshopped coming out of all his pockets.

Today's cover was a posed photograph of a woman standing with duct tape over her mouth and holding a picture of a flood-hit home. The headline was something about someone, or apparently people, being "Gagged" from talking about how the NDP has handled the flood situation. (Um, weren't they just criticizing Selinger for spending too much??)

Talk about yellow journalism. (I don't think that's a racist term.) I don't think I've ever seen anything so blatantly and sensationally partisan attempting to pass as news by a city daily.

You mean the Winnipeg Sun finally figured out that there is a world outside of the Perimiter Highway, and that world is under water? All I ever saw on the front pages of the Winnipeg Sun for the longest time was "JETS JETS JETS!"

jas

I remember the weekly Vancouver Courier went through a phase where every front page was a posed, staged photo illustrating some issue of the day (rather than just going out and getting a photo of an actual event.) It was highly annoying and looked incredibly amateur but I don't remember it being partisan one way or the other. Not sure if it's still doing this.

2dawall

Well today's Winnipeg Sun has a photo of Miss Manitoba in a two-piece swimsuit and a description says she is actually at this beach location but it sure looks photoshopped.

 

http://www.winnipegsun.com/subscribe

I could not find a bigger picture but even with this one there seems to be a dark line around her just like you seen on green screen tv effects.

I am waiting for them to take a shot of Greg Sellinger with a gun to the head of a dog the same way and claim it is real too.

ghoris

Yep, did hear about it. Guess he figures Sam is going to stick around for a while, otherwise he'd be laying the groundwork for a mayoral bid. Should be quite the battle in Seine River. Shows you how irrelevant the Manitoba Liberals have become that a former candidate and longtime member is defecting to the Tories (although to be fair, Marcel Laurendeau has gone the opposite direction).

I saw last week that Rosann Wowchuk announced she is not running again. I expect to see Eric Robinson and maybe even Bill Blaikie calling it quits before the election as well. I'm sure they have all waited to the last minute to announce their retirements to avoid being dumped from cabinet.

Some Tories seem to think that her departure makes Swan River a swing seat. It has been in the past, to be sure - Wowchuk barely held on in 1995 and at one point on election night she had been declared defeated. That being said, I believe the boundaries have shifted quite a bit further north since the 80s and 90s, and it's hard to believe the big margins of victory Wowchuk got in the last three elections were solely because of personal popularity.  Nonetheless, the Tories seem to think they have a real shot at a pickup here.

Tory supporters like blogger Luc Lewandowski (Hacks & Wonks) are saying that the Tories can win six or new seven seats outside the Perimeter(!), meaning they only have to win as few as three in the city(!!!).  This ignores a few things: (1) the Tories lose a seat with the disappearance of Ste. Rose, (2) the Tories are vulnerable in some seats where their incumbents are retiring, namely Brandon West and Portage, and (3) it's a bit of a stretch to suggest that 20 point (or more) margins from 2007 are now going to completely evaporate in seats like Gimli, Brandon East, Dauphin, Interlake, etc. Do the Tories have a chance to win in these seats? Sure. Are they going to run the table? Doubtful. Again, at the risk of sounding like I have terminal Perimeteritis, I still firmly believe that if the Tories can't pick up more than seven seats in Winnipeg, they have no chance at forming a government.

 

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

"Vote NDP or we'll shoot this dog"?

 

Krago

For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5

  • Agassiz (CONS +59%): CONS-74%, NDP-15%, LIB-7%, GRN-3%
  • Arthur-Virden (CONS +55%): CONS-72%, NDP-17%, LIB-5%, GRN-5%
  • Assiniboia (CONS +31%): CONS-57%, NDP-26%, LIB-14%, GRN-3%
  • Brandon East (CONS +16%): CONS-52%, NDP-36%, LIB-6%, GRN-6%
  • Brandon West (CONS +26%): CONS-57%, NDP-31%, LIB-6%, GRN-6%
  • Burrows (NDP +6%): CONS-30%, NDP-37%, LIB-31%, GRN-2%
  • Charleswood (CONS +39%): CONS-58%, NDP-17%, LIB-20%, GRN-5%
  • Concordia (NDP +8%): CONS-42%, NDP-50%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • Dauphin (CONS +30%): CONS-59%, NDP-30%, LIB-6%, GRN-5%
  • Dawson Trail (CONS +37%): CONS-62%, NDP-25%, LIB-8%, GRN-3%
  • Elmwood (NDP +10%): CONS-40%, NDP-50%, LIB-6%, GRN-4%
  • Emerson (CONS +63%): CONS-75%, NDP-12%, LIB-6%, GRN-5%
  • Flin Flon (NDP +11%): CONS-35%, NDP-46%, LIB-16%, GRN-3%
  • Fort Garry-Riverview (CONS +7%): CONS-37%, NDP-27%, LIB-31%, GRN-4%
  • Fort Richmond (CONS +10%): CONS-45%, NDP-17%, LIB-35%, GRN-2%
  • Fort Rouge (LIB +10%): CONS-28%, NDP-28%, LIB-38%, GRN-5%
  • Fort Whyte (CONS +26%): CONS-57%, NDP-9%, LIB-32%, GRN-2%
  • Gimli (CONS +35%): CONS-63%, NDP-29%, LIB-4%, GRN-4%
  • Interlake (CONS +27%): CONS-59%, NDP-32%, LIB-7%, GRN-2%
  • Kewatinook (NDP +33%): CONS-10%, NDP-61%, LIB-27%, GRN-2%
  • Kildonan (CONS +20%): CONS-54%, NDP-34%, LIB-9%, GRN-3%
  • Kirkfield Park (CONS +35%): CONS-56%, NDP-21%, LIB-19%, GRN-4%
  • La Verendrye (CONS +51%): CONS-70%, NDP-19%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • Lac du Bonnet (CONS +38%): CONS-64%, NDP-26%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • Lakeside (CONS +53%): CONS-73%, NDP-20%, LIB-4%, GRN-4%
  • Logan (NDP +26%): CONS-27%, NDP-53%, LIB-14%, GRN-5%
  • Midland (CONS +62%): CONS-72%, NDP-10%, LIB-9%, GRN-6%
  • Minto (NDP +28%): CONS-28%, NDP-56%, LIB-10%, GRN-6%
  • Morden-Winkler (CONS +76%): CONS-82%, NDP-6%, LIB-3%, GRN-6%
  • Morris (CONS +60%): CONS-74%, NDP-14%, LIB-7%, GRN-4%
  • Point Douglas (NDP +28%): CONS-23%, NDP-52%, LIB-21%, GRN-3%
  • Portage la Prairie (CONS +53%): CONS-70%, NDP-17%, LIB-7%, GRN-5%
  • Radisson (CONS +28%): CONS-55%, NDP-26%, LIB-17%, GRN-2%
  • Riding Mountain (CONS +43%): CONS-65%, NDP-23%, LIB-7%, GRN-5%
  • Riel (CONS +22%): CONS-50%, NDP-18%, LIB-28%, GRN-3%
  • River East (CONS +29%): CONS-59%, NDP-30%, LIB-7%, GRN-2%
  • River Heights (LIB +1%): CONS-40%, NDP-16%, LIB-41%, GRN-3%
  • Rossmere (CONS +16%): CONS-54%, NDP-37%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • Seine River (CONS +27%): CONS-54%, NDP-17%, LIB-27%, GRN-2%
  • Selkirk (CONS +28%): CONS-60%, NDP-32%, LIB-4%, GRN-4%
  • Southdale (CONS +34%): CONS-60%, NDP-12%, LIB-26%, GRN-2%
  • Spruce Woods (CONS +50%): CONS-71%, NDP-20%, LIB-4%, GRN-5%
  • St. Boniface (LIB +6%): CONS-36%, NDP-19%, LIB-42%, GRN-4%
  • St. James (CONS +11%): CONS-46%, NDP-35%, LIB-14%, GRN-5%
  • St. Johns (NDP +8%): CONS-38%, NDP-47%, LIB-10%, GRN-4%
  • St. Norbert (CONS +19%): CONS-51%, NDP-14%, LIB-33%, GRN-2%
  • St. Paul (CONS +44%): CONS-67%, NDP-23%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • St. Vital (CONS +25%): CONS-50%, NDP-22%, LIB-24%, GRN-3%
  • Steinbach (CONS +73%): CONS-82%, NDP-9%, LIB-4%, GRN-2%
  • Swan River (CONS +25%): CONS-58%, NDP-34%, LIB-5%, GRN-3%
  • The Maples (LIB +5%): CONS-33%, NDP-29%, LIB-37%, GRN-1%
  • The Pas (NDP +33%): CONS-22%, NDP-55%, LIB-22%, GRN-2%
  • Thompson (NDP +12%): CONS-36%, NDP-48%, LIB-14%, GRN-2%
  • Transcona (CONS +5%): CONS-49%, NDP-45%, LIB-4%, GRN-3%
  • Tuxedo (CONS +26%): CONS-54%, NDP-15%, LIB-28%, GRN-3%
  • Tyndall Park (LIB +5%): CONS-29%, NDP-32%, LIB-37%, GRN-2%
  • Wolseley (NDP +42%): CONS-18%, NDP-60%, LIB-10%, GRN-11%

genstrike

Krago wrote:

For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5

It is worth absolutely nothing though, because voting patterns are completely different in Manitoba provincially and federally. Transpose the voting patterns from the last provincial election to federal boundaries, and the NDP would probably win every single seat in Winnipeg.

Aristotleded24

genstrike wrote:

Krago wrote:

For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5

It is worth absolutely nothing though, because voting patterns are completely different in Manitoba provincially and federally. Transpose the voting patterns from the last provincial election to federal boundaries, and the NDP would probably win every single seat in Winnipeg.

They'd also win Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, and possibly Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette

Aristotleded24

genstrike wrote:

Krago wrote:

For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5

It is worth absolutely nothing though, because voting patterns are completely different in Manitoba provincially and federally. Transpose the voting patterns from the last provincial election to federal boundaries, and the NDP would probably win every single seat in Winnipeg.

They'd also win Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, and possibly Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette

lil.Tommy

Stockholm wrote:

I think its a good thing to have a lot of NDP old-timers with supersafe seats like Elmwood, Point Douglas etc...stepping down and making room for younger new faces. it sure beats the situation in Saskatchewan where the NDP has all this deadwood in their caucus sitting in safe seats in the cities that refuse to ever get out of the way.

 

I don't disagree AT ALL ... but i am excited to see Jamie Garcia in Reginga Coronation Park, but i don't know if Cathy Sproule would be considered "New Blood" in Saskatoon Nutana?

Krago

Aristotleded24 wrote:

genstrike wrote:

Krago wrote:

For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5

It is worth absolutely nothing though, because voting patterns are completely different in Manitoba provincially and federally. Transpose the voting patterns from the last provincial election to federal boundaries, and the NDP would probably win every single seat in Winnipeg.

They'd also win Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, and possibly Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette


The 2007 Manitoba provincial results transposed onto the federal ridings would produce 10 wins for the NDP and 4 wins for the Tories.

  • Brandon--Souris (PC +11%): NDP-41%, PC-52%, LIB-6%, GRN-1%, OTH-0%
  • Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia (NDP +6%): NDP-47%, PC-41%, LIB-11%, GRN-1%
  • Churchill (NDP +53%): NDP-70%, PC-17%, LIB-12%
  • Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette (PC +8%): NDP-43%, PC-51%, LIB-6%, GRN-0%, OTH-0%
  • Elmwood--Transcona (NDP +39%): NDP-64%, PC-25%, LIB-10%, GRN-1%
  • Kildonan--St. Paul (NDP +17%): NDP-53%, PC-37%, LIB-9%, GRN-1%
  • Portage--Lisgar (PC +37%): NDP-25%, PC-62%, LIB-12%
  • Provencher (PC +27%): NDP-31%, PC-58%, LIB-9%, GRN-1%, OTH-1%
  • Saint Boniface (NDP +31%): NDP-59%, PC-28%, LIB-11%, GRN-3%, OTH-0%
  • Selkirk--Interlake (NDP +8%): NDP-50%, PC-42%, LIB-7%, GRN-1%
  • Winnipeg Centre (NDP +43%): NDP-60%, PC-14%, LIB-17%, GRN-5%, OTH-4%
  • Winnipeg North (NDP +31%): NDP-56%, PC-17%, LIB-25%, GRN-1%, OTH-0%
  • Winnipeg South (NDP +11%): NDP-48%, PC-37%, LIB-14%, GRN-0%
  • Winnipeg South Centre (NDP +10%): NDP-40%, PC-24%, LIB-30%, GRN-5%, OTH-0%

Stockholm

What I would really like to know is what the results of the 2007 Manitoba election would have been on the new map to be used this year!

Krago

I'm not able to give you those (someone has already paid me to do the work), but I can give you these:

Stockholm

This is great - can you do these "before and after" maps for the rest of the province as well?

Vansterdam Kid

Krago, you're a machine. Again, thanks for these maps!

Krago
Aristotleded24

So here are the seats I think each party should target:

NDP:

  • Brandon West
  • River East
  • Portage la Prairie
  • Lac du Bonnet
  • Morden-Winkler
  • Tyndall Park*

PCs:

  • Brandon East
  • Swan River
  • Dauphin
  • La Verendrye
  • Riverheights
  • Gimli
  • Interlake
  • Dawson Trail
  • Selkirk
  • Assiniboia
  • Kirkfield Park
  • St. James
  • Fort Richmond
  • Riel
  • Rossmere
  • Seine River
  • Southdale
  • St. Norbert
  • St. Vital

Liberals

  • The Maples
  • Fort Rouge
  • Fort Garry-Riverview

* Tyndall Park most closely resembles the former Inkster constituency, which was held by Liberal Kevin Lameroux, so for the purposes of this exercise I consider Tyndall Park an incumbent Liberal seat, notwithstanding the fact that the seat remains vacant due to the expected general election.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

genstrike wrote:

For what it's worth, I've talked to Ashton a few times and I've never found him personally unpleasant.

I lived in Thompson for a few years and generally found Steve Ashton to be quite affable.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

jas wrote:

Anyone notice the recent cover stories of the Winnipeg Sun against the provincial NDP?

A few days ago, full front page photo of Greg Selinger with piles of $100 dollar bills photoshopped coming out of all his pockets.

Today's cover was a posed photograph of a woman standing with duct tape over her mouth and holding a picture of a flood-hit home. The headline was something about someone, or apparently people, being "Gagged" from talking about how the NDP has handled the flood situation. (Um, weren't they just criticizing Selinger for spending too much??)

Talk about yellow journalism. (I don't think that's a racist term.) I don't think I've ever seen anything so blatantly and sensationally partisan attempting to pass as news by a city daily.

 

The Winnipeg Sun, like all of Canada's Trash Tabloid Sun papers, is modelled after the UK Sun.

And here's some info on what that fine publication has done in the past:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sun_(United_Kingdom)#The_1980s

2dawall

What about voter suppression? There was an article somewhere either here or Canadian Dimension about voter suppression in the last federal election; I remember  that locally we were getting calls from somewhere in North Dakota and I wonder if that will happen again in the provinicial election. Stuff recently happened in Wisconsin and it might be the same group. What will the local unions do to prevent that? They have been advertising more heavily lately but will they develop a strategy to counter whatever dirty tricks are upcoming? Better yet hire some private detectives to track down the stuff and videotape for ads warning of what is going on.

Aristotleded24

A couple of developments I want to comment on:

In South Winnipeg, [url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2011/08/16/mb-ndp-norbert-r... NDP candidate has been barred from running for nomination.[/url] Apparently the excuse given by the Executive is that Mangat used to be a Liberal. Apparently Mangat supported Ashton over Selinger for the leadership, so some are speculating that this decision is payback.

Next we have the [url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2011/08/28/mb-conservative-... Platform,[/url] or as I like to call it, "A Beginner's Look At Bungling An Election That Was Yours To Win." Manitoba is currently in a deficit position, and the Economic Action Plan that the NDP rolled out and is currently implementing has the deficit eliminated by 2014. The PCs have been vocal in opposing the deficit measures and have previously insisted on balancing budgets year over year. Well, they suddenly went back on that platform plank, and said their plan will now take four years longer to bring the province's books out of red ink. Apparently it's designed to quell fears that a PC government would implement severe cuts to social spending a-la Mike Harris. I've long been critical of this government campaigning against the former Filmon government in each election, but this PC platform tells me that those fears are resonating beyond NDP partisans.

ghoris

Interesting. Cris Aglugub, former NDP MLA for The Maples (1999-2007) has been nominated by the Tories to run in Tyndall Park. Aglugub was defeated for the nomination in 2007 by the sitting MLA, Mohinder Saran. More interestingly, the man that Aglugub beat to win the nomination in The Maples in 1999, Kaur Sidhu, is also running for the Tories in Rossmere. Sidhu attempted a comeback in 2007 but complained he was 'muscled out' by the chief of staff to then-Premier Doer, Michael Balagus. Even more interestingly, Balagus was accused of having pressured Mangat to drop out of the St. Norbert race too.

(ETA: Lest I sound like I am ragging on the 'party brass' here, I will just say this - there is always a lot more to these riding nomination shenanigans than meets the eye.)

2dawall

PC candidate Gord Steeves might have made the Tories slightly vulnerable here:

 

"The Manitoba Tories are distancing themselves from comments made by one of their star candidates. Tory candidate Gord Steeves said during a televised interview in May that he believed automobile insurance in Manitoba should be provided by the private sector, not government."

 

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2011/08/29/privatize-auto-insurance-steeves-h...

The question is whether the NDP will have the acumen to nail it right or will they drop the ball. If Donne Flanagan will still alive, the former NDP communications guru, would have known exactly how to skewer the Tories but that is not the case. Luckily for the Tories (or not luck, but by crook) the Sun has put this in the leadup to a summer long weekend so it might not get the attention it deserves. Many, many people take this entire last week off and therefore the story may fade completely.

ghoris

Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb. Plays right into the NDP's "Hugh has a hidden agenda to sell Hydro" line. What's more, it's just plain dumb from both a policy and political perspective. We can have an argument about the merits of privatizing MTS, hell someone could probably even make a case for privatizing Hydro that might persuade a few people. But I'll guarantee you there is not a single solitary Manitoban who actually believes their insurance rates wouldn't skyrocket if we got rid of Autopac.

Stockholm

ghoris wrote:

Interesting. Cris Aglugub, former NDP MLA for The Maples (1999-2007) has been nominated by the Tories to run in Tyndall Park. Aglugub was defeated for the nomination in 2007 by the sitting MLA, Mohinder Saran. More interestingly, the man that Aglugub beat to win the nomination in The Maples in 1999, Kaur Sidhu, is also running for the Tories in Rossmere. Sidhu attempted a comeback in 2007 but complained he was 'muscled out' by the chief of staff to then-Premier Doer, Michael Balagus. Even more interestingly, Balagus was accused of having pressured Mangat to drop out of the St. Norbert race too.

(ETA: Lest I sound like I am ragging on the 'party brass' here, I will just say this - there is always a lot more to these riding nomination shenanigans than meets the eye.)

Say what you want about the party brass, but when I see that two people who were maneuvered out of NDP nominations are now only too happy to run for the rabidly rightwing Tories, it tells me that the NDP has dodged a bullet by not having these people as candidates. Do you really want NDP MLAs who think that running for the PC instead of the NDP is no different from quitting a job at CIBC to take one at the Royal Bank?

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
Say what you want about the party brass, but when I see that two people who were maneuvered out of NDP nominations are now only too happy to run for the rabidly rightwing Tories, it tells me that the NDP has dodged a bullet by not having these people as candidates. Do you really want NDP MLAs who think that running for the PC instead of the NDP is no different from quitting a job at CIBC to take one at the Royal Bank?

I don't, but that's a decision for the NDP members in the local communities to make, and I'd like to have a bit more confidence in local associations than what you have displayed.

But it's funny, because in Brandon, the opposite has happened. The NDP was looking for someone to run in Brandon West. Several names were floated as possibilities, including former school trustee George Buri. Instead, the party brass packed the process so that Jim Murray would be acclaimed. Who is Jim Murray? He is a right-wing school trustee who almost everyone in Brandon would say would be a better fit with the PCs, and now Buri is running for the Liberals. So you can't have it both ways.

The brass really needs to trust the local members a great deal more. The party deserves a rebuke for these shenanigans.

Stockholm

Do the local members also have a right to be told by Aglugub and Sidhu that if they don't get the NDP nomination, they won't think twice and joining the Conservatives and running for them instead?

Aristotleded24

What are you saying? There's no way to tell what someone may do in the future, so I don't know how anybody could have known that.

lil.Tommy

So this Back and forth in Elmwood is starting to get rediculous; now i don't know Shaneen Robinson but for a party that needs some new blood and fresh ideas, wouldn't she have been the better choice? my MAN friends can fill me in here.

 

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Maloway-wins-NDP-nominatio...

Aristotleded24

lil.Tommy wrote:
So this Back and forth in Elmwood is starting to get rediculous; now i don't know Shaneen Robinson but for a party that needs some new blood and fresh ideas, wouldn't she have been the better choice?

Absolutely. The truth is, all the parties could do much better at being representative of the population than they are currently, and an open seat in Elmwood was a great opportunity to renew the organization and move fresh faces up through the ranks. Now that Maloway is back, I wouldn't be surprised to see Elmwood fall out of the NDP column, even though it was the Elmwood area that voted for Jim in the federal election.

2dawall

Maloway's behavior only re-asserts blatant stereotypes about the politics of personal ambition, personal agendas, and total disregard for the voting population and the constiuents. An easy, huge target for the Tories. This is so, so bad.

Aristotleded24

2dawall wrote:
Maloway's behavior only re-asserts blatant stereotypes about the politics of personal ambition, personal agendas, and total disregard for the voting population and the constiuents. An easy, huge target for the Tories. This is so, so bad.

Espeically since the Tory candidate in Elmwood played a key role in taking the federal seat from the NDP.

ghoris

Aristotleded24 wrote:

lil.Tommy wrote:
So this Back and forth in Elmwood is starting to get rediculous; now i don't know Shaneen Robinson but for a party that needs some new blood and fresh ideas, wouldn't she have been the better choice?

Absolutely. The truth is, all the parties could do much better at being representative of the population than they are currently, and an open seat in Elmwood was a great opportunity to renew the organization and move fresh faces up through the ranks. Now that Maloway is back, I wouldn't be surprised to see Elmwood fall out of the NDP column, even though it was the Elmwood area that voted for Jim in the federal election.

Wait a second, I thought 'the party' was supposed to keep its nose out of nomination races and leave everything up to the wisdom of the local membership?

Maloway is a dreadful candidate who has been around far too long and should have taken the hint when the voters 'retired' him in the federal election. That said, this is one of the safest NDP seats in the province. Maloway held it even in the 1988 disaster, and the Elmwood half of the federal riding stayed loyal to him in May. If the NDP loses Elmwood, they're going to lose virtually everything. I don't see a meltdown of that scale at this point.

Aristotleded24

First off, how was that post a contradiction of my preference that local ridings be allowed to choose their own candidates?

Secondly, if there is anything the federal election taught us, it's that there is no such thing as a "safe seat." Elmwood-Transcona, held by the NDP in 1993, was a "safe NDP seat." If you go a couple hours down the road to Brandon East, that seat was also held by the NDP in 1988, but there is a realistic chance that it could fall out of the NDP column this time around. Besides, maybe Elmwood residents will get tired of Maloway (nobody on the public news boards seems to like him, if that is any indication) but at the same time, maybe some of the southern MLAs, like Kerri Irvin-Ross and Erin Selby have worked hard enough that they will win their seats. Who knows?

ghoris

On the first point, I guess I misunderstood your post.

On the second point, fair enough, but I still do not see the massive shift to the Tories at the federal level being replicated at the provincial level, particularly after Maloway still won Elmwood fairly easily.

I note (with some satisfaction) that the NDP campaign kickoff is taking place in my old riding of River East tomorrow. The NDP has traditionally had its campaign kickoff in its top target ridings and it has always gone on to win those seats in the election, so maybe this is a sign that the party is finally putting resources into River East. It was always a source of constant frustration for me when I was active in the party that provincial office would talk a big game about making River East a target seat, and then quietly write it off about two weeks after the writ was dropped. But after Bonnie Mitchelson barely squeaked in by 49 votes last time, I guess they have finally realized that with a little work and resources, it is totally winnable. Speaking of too-long-in-the-tooth politicians that need to retire, I was somewhat surprised to see Bonnie offering again (she was first elected in 1986, same as Jim Maloway and is second only to Steve Ashton as the MLA with the longest continuous service). I suspect there was some arm-twisting by PC HQ to get her to run again, since it would be a lot tougher to retain the seat without the advantage of her incumbency. 2007 candidate Kurt Penner is running again for the NDP and hopefully, with some real backing from provincial office, he can knock her off this time.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
The NDP has traditionally had its campaign kickoff in its top target ridings and it has always gone on to win those seats in the election, so maybe this is a sign that the party is finally putting resources into River East.

How about putting resources into Brandon West, Portage, and Lac du Bonnet as well? All 3 of those seats were represented by incumbent PCs who would have been in Cabinet if McFadyen won, and all 3 MLAs are not running again.

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