Manitoba PC Leadership

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Aristotleded24
Manitoba PC Leadership

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Aristotleded24

The Manitoba PC Party has been searching for a new leaders since Hugh McFadyen stepped down. After months of speculation, it's been made official: [url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2012/04/11/mb-brian-pallist... Pallister will run.[/url] Pallister was an MLA in Filmon's government, and an Alliance/Conservative MP for Portage. So far, no one else has stepped forward.

If he wins, I know exactly how the NDP will respond: "Brian Pallister was part of Gary Filmon's government, a government which privatized MTS and fired 1000 nurses. If Brian Pallister is elected, he will privatize Manitoba Hydro. The NDP will never sell Hydro and will protect public services. Vote NDP."

Man, these guys make Stu Murray look competent!

ghoris

Polls show the Tories with a lead province-wide, but still badly trailing the NDP in Winnipeg. As we just saw in the fall, the Tories can't win an election by piling up huge majorities in rural southern Manitoba - if they can't win at least 8 seats in Winnipeg they have *no* chance of forming government.

Brian Pallister is not going to win them any new supporters in Winnipeg. The last thing the Tories need is another tired old face from rural Manitoba.

The Tories may be down and out at the moment, but they still have a solid base of support and sooner or later, people will get sick of the NDP and the Tories will be in. I can't believe they are headed for another coronation. The last real leadership race they had was in 1983 (!!!) In 2000, Stu Murray was acclaimed (we know how that turned out) and the McFadyen/Schuler/Waddell 'contest' in 2006 was a bit of a joke - McFadyen won two-thirds of the vote.  Surely there are others than Brian Pallister who want a shot at being Premier?

Aristotleded24

Even that 8-seat figure is a low estimate, considering that the NDP has the potential to pick up some traditional PC seats including Lac du Bonnet, River East, Brandon-West, and Pallister's stomping ground of Portage la Prairie (which, incidentally, would give the provincial NDP a beach-head in every federal riding). I don't think Pallister would do it for them. You think the ads linking McFadyen to Filmon were stretching it, Pallister has a direct connection to the former Filmon government, and will be an easy target. As a former MP, he will also be associated with the Harper government, and if the country is ready to throw out the Conservatives in 2015, that may very well play into the provincial NDP's favour. To say nothing of the fact that the Greens have the potential to become the new third party, and even possibly chip away at the NDP's left flank. It was no coincidence during the leader's debate that Green Party leader James Beddome lamented that the NDP is no longer the party of big ideas.

ghoris

Has there been any more talk of a potential Liberal-Green merger? I seem to recall that idea being mooted after the Liberals managed a derisory 7% of the vote last time out.

Aristotleded24

There was some talk, but I'm not sure how far it will go. Frankly, I think the Greens would be far better to try and build up their own brand than to attach themselves to the Liberals. Particularly if the Wolseley seat ever becomes empty.

ghoris

I don't know - I don't think Wolseley votes NDP solely because of the dynamic presence of Rob Altemeyer. I do agree, however, that if the Greens ever were to break through, it would likely be in that seat.

By and large, though, I think it will be a struggle for the Greens to become a real mainstream party in Manitoba. I think their efforts might actually be better focused at the municipal level in the short term. If one or two credible Green candidates could get elected to Council in places like Daniel McIntyre or Fort Rouge or even River Heights, that might go a long way to raising the profile of the provincial party.

Aristotleded24

The Greens are also surprisingly strong in Brandon. They almost beat the NDP in the 2008 federal election.

Aristotleded24

So there's a [url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/immigration-spat-heats-up-1482242... between Manitoba and Ottawa[/url] regarding the federal takeover of immigration services. Manitoba has been running the Provincial Nominee Program since 1998 (Manitoba's population increase is due entirely to immigration) but that will change once the Feds take over. Community groups are not happy, and the provincial government has passed a motion asking all parties in the House to denounce the fed's move. Naturally the PCs did not go along, and as you can see, some of the Conservative MPs came to back up their provincial counterparts. I wonder if this is part of a long-term strategy on the part of the NDP to pick a fight with the federal Conservatives, so that come 2015 they can play off Harper-fagitue and paint the PCs as being mini-Harpers?

ghoris

It's been done before. In Doer's first election in 1988, the NDP ran against Brian Mulroney and Free Trade, not Gary Filmon and the Manitoba PCs.

I'm not sure that demonizing Harper and picking a fight with the federal Tories is going to pay any real dividends in the short run, and probably not in the long run either. The Tories have 11/14 seats in Manitoba, a historic high-water mark surpassed only by Dief's clean sweep in 1958. They even won a majority of seats in Winnipeg. That suggests to me that there is not a groundswell of anti-Harper sentiment that there might be in places like, say, Montreal or Vancouver that the provincial party can tap into. I suppose there might be some 'Harper fatigue' by 2015, but there's just as likely to be 'Selinger/NDP fatigue'.

Aristotleded24

Of course the Conservatives are at their high-water mark in Manitoba, so federally they have nowhere to go but down. I can't imagine Harper's doing himself many favours with farmers over the Canadian Wheat Board. I've even heard rumours that there are grumblings against the Conservatives in Brandon, which could very well be the case in other areas as well. And with the NDP tied with the Conservatives nationally, to me the only way that could be explained would be by a rise in NDP support in Manitoba coming at Conservative expense. The Conservative team in Manitoba doesn't seem that strong, think Shelly Glover, Joy Smith, and Lawrence Toet. I imagine that even a decent campaign would win back Elmwood-Transcona, and more effort would help in St. Boniface and Winnipeg South Centre. I haven't heard much support for the Conservative changes to immigration in Winnipeg, and since immigration is what's fuelling Winnipeg's population growth, I can't imagine the Conservatives winning many votes on this issue. Merv Tweed may not even run in Brandon in 2015, so the NDP will have a realistic shot in that seat as well.

I do think that if it wasn't for the fact that people were tired of the NDP, that it would be much more plausible that the next federal election could see a Conservative wipe-out on the scales of 1993 and 1980.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

ghoris wrote:

It's been done before. In Doer's first election in 1988, the NDP ran against Brian Mulroney and Free Trade, not Gary Filmon and the Manitoba PCs.

I'm not sure that demonizing Harper and picking a fight with the federal Tories is going to pay any real dividends in the short run, and probably not in the long run either. The Tories have 11/14 seats in Manitoba, a historic high-water mark surpassed only by Dief's clean sweep in 1958. They even won a majority of seats in Winnipeg. That suggests to me that there is not a groundswell of anti-Harper sentiment that there might be in places like, say, Montreal or Vancouver that the provincial party can tap into. I suppose there might be some 'Harper fatigue' by 2015, but there's just as likely to be 'Selinger/NDP fatigue'.

 

Let's not forget that there's prenounced vote-splitting among the centre-left federally in Winnipeg that just doesn't exist provincially. 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

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Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2012/07/28/mb-brian-pallist... clock has run out, Pallister is the next leader.[/url] I think it's quite likely the NDP will win in 2015.

David Young

There will be a vacancy in the Senate from Manitoba next March when Conservative Terry Straton has to retire.

Pallister can just wait a few months untill then, and Harper will probably appoint one of the sitting Manitoba Conservative M.L.A.s to fill the vacancy,  thus giving Pallister his safe-seat by-election back into the Legislature.

Wanna bet?!

 

Aristotleded24

David Young wrote:
There will be a vacancy in the Senate from Manitoba next March when Conservative Terry Straton has to retire.

Pallister can just wait a few months untill then, and Harper will probably appoint one of the sitting Manitoba Conservative M.L.A.s to fill the vacancy,  thus giving Pallister his safe-seat by-election back into the Legislature.

Wanna bet?!

Which seat are we talking about? His own seat is Portage la Prairie, and that seat is far from being safe for the PCs. Besides, there'a vacancy in Fort Whyte with McFadyen gone, and I would not be surprised if the NDP won that one as well.

Aristotleded24

Pallister will run in Fort Whyte in the [url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/fort-whyte-byelection-early-test-... that is scheduled for September 4[/url] The NDP has nominated Brandi Schmidt, and is going hard for this seat. While this is staunchly Tory, I would not be surprised to see an NDP win, especially given the lack of enthusiasm for Pallister. Looking to the next election, there are several Tory seats which would be vulnerable. Brandon-West, Lac du Bonnet, Portage la Prairie, and River-East are all low hanging fruit right there, and there could even be others, depending on how initiatives such as those in health care in rural areas continue to shape up.

Most of the Tory seats are in rural areas where they win with anywhere from 65-80% of the vote. While what the party says resonates very well with the rural-right wing element in Manitoba, the PCs don't realize that a) what they're saying does not resonate outside of this bubble, and b) they need to win over voters outside of this universe in order to win. The fact that they are also effectively the Manitoba provincial branch plant of the Harper conservatives won't do them any favours either.

Lord Palmerston

Aristotleded24 wrote:

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2012/07/28/mb-brian-pallist... clock has run out, Pallister is the next leader.[/url] I think it's quite likely the NDP will win in 2015.

I remember when Pallister was running for the leadership of the federal PC's...really right-wing.  Hard to see him break out of the rural rump.  Meanwhile the NDP has taken conservative positions on issues like taxation, government spending, and especially criminal justice.  

PoliSciStudent

Any idea what level of support the PCs would need to actually challenge the NDP? They were only a few points behind them in last year's election but were soundly defeated. I guess it's more about spreading out their vote but I was just shocked to see how bad they did despite their popular vote, I remember at one point on election night it looked like they may win the popular vote.

As well have the PCs, or any party, brought up proportional representation?

Aristotleded24

The PCs rack up all of their support in rural ridings, but trail badly in Winnipeg where the majority of seats are. As long as the Northern seats remain NDP, and the NDP leads in Winnipeg, the PCs do not have a chance. And who knows whether the rural PC areas will remain PC forever?

I'm not sure that the PCs ever brought up PR, because that would deny them from ever winning a majority themselves.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Well, Pallister is clamping down on info, deliveringn few policy statements (aside from some comments on the federal legislative hole in women's property rights onn reserves & the "freeze hydro rates until new stations are reviewed"), and just jabbing the NDP. 

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/columnists/unveiling-of-pallist...

Aristotleded24

Early results have Pallister leading with Bob Axworthy of the Liberals pulling a strong second. I guess Axworthy's line of being the only candidate to live in the riding really struck a chord.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2012/09/13/mb-refugee-benef... to backfill federal funding cuts for refugees[/url]

I'm pleasantly surprised that the provincial government made a move this bold. More moves like this and the PCs will be exposed as the Manitoba branch plant of Harper's Conservatives that they are. They will be worried about holding seats, never mind winning new ones in that scenario.

janfromthebruce

now that is good news A24.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Manitoba-Party-set-to-come-out-of... Party trying to become the new right-wing alternative to the NDP?[/url]

Quote:
The creation of a new "big tent" centrist party, made of up Liberals, Greens and disgruntled Tories, is aimed at unseating the NDP in Winnipeg in the next provincial election. As it stands, those who support a new party do not believe new Progressive Conservative Leader Brian Pallister will have enough support to unseat the NDP in critical ridings in south and west Winnipeg.

"I think there’s a lot of frustration out there," said Peter Holle, president of think-tank Frontier Centre for Public Policy and backer of the Manitoba Party. "I think there’s a lot of interest in something new."

janfromthebruce

So it just shows everyone that liberals and greens are "not" progressive, and that right wing supported think tanks, such as Frontier Centre for Public Mischief are into the "tricking" and scheming the public into supporting their right-wing zombie party, because they won't buy the "real thing".