Saskatchewan Provincial Election - Nov 7 / 11
October 3, 2011 - 12:11am
We are currently 36 days away from the Saskatchewan general election and no one has posted anything about Saskatchewan politics in five months.
Seriously?
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Most likely, that's been because people were assuming the Sask Dippers were gonna go down in flames whenever that election was called.
What're your feelings on this, then? Is victory even possible, or is it just down to damage control. And if it's the latter, how many seats does the party have to win just for Lingenfelter to be able to hang on in his job?
Also...this poster would be a great image for the Sask NDP to update and revive(making it more multicultural, but still using the basic idea):
It could even be a series of posters with a series of different families. What d'ya think?
Several issues here.
On the plus side, Lingenfelter has had some success in dealing with some issues about caucus - though some ineffective incumbents are running again. The material I've seen suggests that the brass realize that negative campaigning is going to rebound, so they aren't going there.
I also think that there are some vulnerabilities on the other side. The current government have been having trouble balancing their budget during a boom. One shudders to think what happens when the economy turns. The astonisingly boneheaded potash revenue predictions in 2009 are merely the best example. The narrative that too many people are being left behind does resonate - when we ca get it heard. There is also the ethical issue around the government's handling of the multiple releases of prisoners whose sentences were incomplete. Deciding to sacrifice public safety in order to protect the minister is appalling. Election Act amendments re: ID requirements incorporated every exemption under the federal legislation except for one which allowed band officials to verify a band member's residence on a reserve. The racism is so blatant that even the corporat media noticed.
On the hard side, it is very hard to defeat any government after one term or when the economy is booming. We're up against both this time. Some mistakes early on (ie, Link forgetting to act like a premier in waiting) are the focus of some pretty hard hitting negative ads. The effective death of the Liberal Party means no vote splitting on the right.
But I'm not quite convinced it's a "save the furniture" election. Unfortunately, the NDP won far more seats last time than what 37% would usually deliver - which means that the bar for success is artificially high.
BTW, has the writ actually been dropped? I just checked CBC.ca, and they didn't have a Saskatchewan election link yet.
The other thing that may have contributed to a lack of posts about Sask politics is that there are several other provincial and territorial campaigns underway. Funny thing about so many of them being called at the same time...couldn't possibly be a coordinated right-wing tactic to bleed NDP resources dry across the country now could it? Oh no, couldn't possibly be that....
It is definitely going to be an uphill battle. The media here is so right-wing they have everybody bashing the NDP and praising the almighty Wall. Even Pat Atkinson came out and said, "Well, it looks like Brad Wall is going to be reelected."
So now it seems the strategy is to say to people, "Do you want the SK PArty to have total control over our province or do you want some opposition there to stand up for the people?"
It is pretty sad that we have been reduced to this but this just might be the only way to get through to people.
I'm concerned about the Saskatchewan NDP. Not only are they expected to get pummeled in the next election but there haven't been much signs of renewal on the horizon. Ryan Meili is out of the picture, as seem to be some of his supporters. They were the closest the Sask NDP had to some sort of popular resurgence and instead of channel that, Link dumped it. It's hard to give a thumbs-up to a lot of what the party is doing right now, the messaging is negative and manipulative, the leader is competent but right-wing, and what are the party issues that would fire up volunteers? The NDP can't play the bogeyman of Wall anymore, because Wall has been in power for several years now, and to many's chagrin quite popular. One thing the Saskatchewan NDP must do is tone down the negativity, but they must then have a counter-narrative to sell.
If you go to SaskNDP.com and check out the newest ads, you'll see that they have eschewed the negativity.
Frankly, the last three elections were all run on the "O My God!!! the Saskies are Scary!!!" meme and all three, when push comes to shove, were failed campaigns. In 1999, we lost the popular vote and barely hung on to a minority in an election we should have won in a walk. In 2003 we were saved by an incompetently run SaskParty campaign. In 2007 we got our lowest popular vote since 1938. And on top of that, we'd oversold the "scary meme for so long that Wall et al have simply failed to live up to it. He'd have needed to be Augusto Pinochet to be half as scary as we'd been claiming. May of us were very concerned we were going back to the well on that again, and I'm very relieved we seem to have finall learned our lesson.
For the record, the campaign director the first time we turned stupid on that was Brian Topp. In fairness, he probably figured out after the first time that it didn't work. It took the rest of the Calvert team another two elections and I'm still not sure some of them get it.
@ Malcolm
Maybe because some of us have been discussing provincial politics on an issue-by-issue basis, rather than just divining the fortunes of the provincial NDP.
And no, the writ has not been dropped.
One of the problems is that Brad Wall is a very good leader. Although there are a number of fronts on which he is pushing to the right, overtly or covertly, he has managed to present an image of being centrist on some significant issues - the HST, and the public decision to not pursue nuclear power (though who knows how long that will last).
Of course it is deception, but it has worked. I think they have shown their true colours in their approach to the teachers' and health care workers' strikes, but will it be enough to affect the election? According to the most recent poll, no.
Brad Wall is Sask's version of Gordon Campbell. Vilifying him for a decade led to him winning three consecutive elections. Overplaying the boogieman card does not play well with people who are not political junkies and that is most of the voters.
I think the difference, albiet with my casual out of province observation, is that Wall seems like "a nice enough guy." Campbell always came off like a jack ass even at his best.
I think the best we can do this election is to argue that the people of Saskatchewan need a strong opposition to the Sask Party because everyone remembers what Grant Devine did in his 2nd term. People can believe in that.
I think the difference, albiet with my casual out of province observation, is that Wall seems like "a nice enough guy." Campbell always came off like a jack ass even at his best.
Certainly I agree that he has that nice guy appearance. Even the glasses he now wears are the perfect blue sweater, except that he can carry it off.
On the other hand, you should have heard the vindictive tone and righteous indignation in his voice when crop insurance workers went on strike in June, even though he was the one who left them for almost two years without a contract settlement.
Wall is just as much a snake, except that he is far more dangerous because he has charm and brains.
and @knownothing.
I'd have to say no to your comment, which I suspect is facetious. On the other hand, it certainly explains why those who were the power behind the Conservative Party had to change their name.
Though I have to say our former premier is hard to forget......
He set up that shot himself - you can see his thumb on the camera shutter.
Go ahead, just try bleaching your eyes out.
Of course it is deception, but it has worked. I think they have shown their true colours in their approach to the teachers' and health care workers' strikes, . . .
Also in their approach to First Nations voters. They've backed of from that bit of racism today due to the blowback.
I think the difference, albiet with my casual out of province observation, is that Wall seems like "a nice enough guy." Campbell always came off like a jack ass even at his best.
Certainly I agree that he has that nice guy appearance. Even the glasses he now wears are the perfect blue sweater, except that he can carry it off.
On the other hand, you should have heard the vindictive tone and righteous indignation in his voice when crop insurance workers went on strike in June, even though he was the one who left them for almost two years without a contract settlement.
Wall is just as much a snake, except that he is far more dangerous because he has charm and brains.
and @knownothing.
I'd have to say no to your comment, which I suspect is facetious. On the other hand, it certainly explains why those who were the power behind the Conservative Party had to change their name.
I am not sure what you are saying no to but I don't think many Saskatchewanians (including many NDPers) want Lingenfelter as our premier and you would have a hard time convincing people that we are out to win. And like Malcolm said above you can't keep playing the old scary Brad Wall card. So I think we should just shoot for strong opposition and people can take that seriously. Then we can choose a new leader and rebuild for real. I plan on working in the election but I don't feel confident about who we would put in power if we were to win.
I meant the Grant Devine part, knownothing. And I said facetious because clearly they have remaked and remodeled themselves.
And no, I am not 100 percent behind Lingenfelter either, particularly given how he won the leadership.
But I think there is enough clear damage that Wall is doing right now that there is no need to invoke the ghost of Grant Devine. And after all, even his own party, the shell that it is, does not want to be associated with him anymore.
I meant the Grant Devine part, knownothing. And I said facetious because clearly they have remaked and remodeled themselves.
And no, I am not 100 percent behind Lingenfelter either, particularly given how he won the leadership.
But I think there is enough clear damage that Wall is doing right now that there is no need to invoke the ghost of Grant Devine. And after all, even his own party, the shell that it is, does not want to be associated with him anymore.
Are you referring to Rick Swenson and the PC's or the Sask Party?
I'm talking about the PCs. Remember when he wanted to run federally in Souris-Moose Mountain and the party turned him down as an undesirable candidate? He ran as an independent and was expelled from the party (and wound up getting 30% of the vote anyway).
Though I have to say our former premier is hard to forget......
He set up that shot himself - you can see his thumb on the camera shutter.
Go ahead, just try bleaching your eyes out.
That Tory victory celebration must really have been a night to remember..."You've been bad, Saskatchewan, you've been VERY bad...and bad provinces need to be punished..."
Seriously?
What about this thread here?
The other thing that may have contributed to a lack of posts about Sask politics is that there are several other provincial and territorial campaigns underway. Funny thing about so many of them being called at the same time...couldn't possibly be a coordinated right-wing tactic to bleed NDP resources dry across the country now could it? Oh no, couldn't possibly be that....
A coordinated right wing tactic on the NDP? Actually, it couldn't possibly be that.
We have elections in NL, PE, ON, MB, SK, and NWT
First, according to doctor Wik. E. Pedia, at least four of those six jurisdictions have fixed election dates. Unless they have a crystal ball, these four governments couldn't have seen the NDP's gains in 2011, Jack Layton's death, a new leadership race, and an urgency in consolidating the NDP's gains. That leaves PEI, where the NDP doesn't really have a big presence, and the NWT, in which there is non-partisan government and candidates run without party affiliation.
Secondly, if they had that crystal ball, one of those is a non-partisan government, and another is an NDP government. Are the officially non-partisan NWT government and the Manitoba NDP somehow in on these conspiracies?
Finally, even if it were a coordinated right-wing tactic, the Liberals and Conservatives would have to spend just as much effort fighting the NDP in all these elections as well, so there wouldn't really be much in it for them.
Brad Wall's goofy love of sports, rock and roll, etc put him across as the fun premier. I think Link should try to come across as the hardworking and earnest premier. A guy that is going to break his back to give Saskers the best government, the government they deserve. His whole campaign should be about how he's working for them and how hard he's going to work. He will easily come across as smarter than Wall and should make a point of walking circles around Wall in the debate, raising the level of discussion and showing off his knowledge and experience with the issues.
The NDP should stay relentlessy positive for all but maybe the last week of the campaign, where they can start to show people how if they don't vote for the positive, hardworking, and thoughtful vision of SK, the province could miss the train.
For the hardwork image, I would refer the party to the ads of Paul Wellstone. (My apologies for the quality; maybe another babbler can find a good compendium of these elsewhere. maybe someone with labour connections can track down the American campaign team that brought Wellstone victory after victory as a pro-labour, progressive Democrat)
The election campaign starts Monday.
Deep down i'm hoping for a Manitoba-esk style rebound, a victory even! (i know im an optimist). Its sounding like the NDP will be running a very policy focused campaign versus a personality driven one.
http://www.leaderpost.com/health/Sask+Party+personal+attack+trumps+policy/5368410/story.html
Those from SK, which do you think will prevail? i don't think NewDemocrats can really say anything against that since the last federal election was largely (but not exclusively) a Jack led campaign. I FULLY agree, the positive campaigns here in Ontario have really caught on with people and i am very hopeful that in SK people will vote for a strong opposition.
Well, It is pretty gloomy outlook here but...who knows? Maybe Jack got through to more Saskatchewanians than we know.
Historically, the CCF-NDP has always done better in provincial elections than federal elections in Saskatchewan by a factor of about 10 points. If that were to hold true for this election, the NDP would be in the low 40s - enough for a respectable showing in a two way race and enough to actually win in a three or more way race.
The Premier has indicated that he will ask for the writ to be dropped tomorrow. The NDP officially launched the campaign with a rally on Friday.
I think that has more to do with Saskatchewan voters generally voting federally against whatever party is in power provincially, with the 2008 and 2011 elections being the obvious exceptions.
Well, in which case it should apply now then, shouldn't it.
I'll leave it to Malcolm or one of our other Saskatchewanite (Saskatchewanian? Saskie?) babblers to weigh in, but it seems to me Saskatchewan is not unlike Manitoba in the sense that most governments will get at least a second term, unless they've been truly terrible. And perhaps even then - after all, Devine got re-elected (thanks largely to a gerrymandered legislature, but still). I don't get the sense that the public feels Wall has done such a terrible job that they're ready to give him the boot.
It would be good if the NDP can regain some traditional seats outside of Regina and Saskatoon, like Moose Jaw North, Prince Albert-Carlton, Saskatchewan Rivers, and Meadow Lake.
No question this election will be a tough slog. Only one government has ever been defeated after one term, and that was the Conservative led coalition in power from 1929 - 1934. Of course, the Liberals had actually won the most seats in the previous election.
All this optimism, even seasoned with a dash of reality here and there, is amusing. Almost cute.
Face it folks, we've been hooped since the current NDP leader was elected. No matter how much earnestness and hard-workingness Lingenfelter attempts to exude, he's got way to much history and baggage and no amount of whitewash is going to erase it. This is the fundamental problem. The party has a cracked foundation, no amount of cosmetic fixing is going to make it stable.
Frankly, and it galls me to say it because I have no trust in the SP whatsoever, the NDP deserves to lose this election from sheer dysfunction.
There was a good write up in the Prairie Dog, I agree cause i think Lingy was a poor choice for leader and that was before reading this!
So far today the NDP started on a positve note releasing the costing of the Bright Future fund which is a great idea (modeled after successful social democratic examples like Norway). Note to the SNDP stay positive!, there are ways of critisizing without being abrasive, lets hope you learnt your lesson! My hope is the party can salvage 15-20 seats; SaskParty is overconfident and thus fails to come out and vote so the NFP lick their wounds (i.e. dump Lingy) and prepare for 2016.
http://www.prairiedogmag.com/news/?c=politics&id=958
I think Dr. Conway's hit the mark on this one.
The correct terms are Saskatchewanker and Saskatcheweenie.
Without commenting on the overall thesis of the Conway piece, he does make one significant ommission. Of the three seats the NDP won in 2007 with more than 60%, Regina Walsh Acres is unique.
Due to some emerging past issues, the SaskParty candidate withdrew prior to the vote but after nominations had closed. Thus there was no SaskParty candidate or SaskParty organization. Had there been a SaskParty candidate and campaign, it is entirely possible, even likely, that Sandra Morin would still have won. It is unlikely, though, that she'd have still polled over 60%.
Saskatchewanian, please.
Writing as an honorary Saskatchewanian: Wall is no Devine. He's much too smart for that. By his second term, it was pretty much clear that Devine was a right-wing clown in way over his head. Wall exudes a certain dull, dorky competence - nothing fancy, but he has an image as a competent manager. I hope that this is Link's last election as leader. From people I've spoken to in the SK NDP, he carries way too much baggage as being Romanow's hatchet man, and the party needs a fresh face. If he hadn't got his eye so firmly fixed on the federal scene, Noah Evanchuk might be a worthwhile possibility.
The SK NDP needs to show that if you find a mountain of potash under your land, it's pretty hard not to make money. They need to show that Wall and the SaskParty has foregone revenues through bad management that could have helped save services, especially in rural areas. It's going to be hard going as Wall isn't going to take the bait, but a young, energetic NDP leader hammering away month after month at the SaskParty's record will eventually reap dividends.
Never forget that the SaskParty is essentially a Frankenstein's monster - cobbled together from the remains of the PC and Liberal parties who hated the NDP more than they hated each other. They have a decent leader, but the ideological stresses remain, and an adept SK NDP could take a crowbar to those fissures, reminding old Liberals and old PCers exactly who they have jumped into bed with.
Link turns me off. It's not that he has baggage, it's that he comes across as a tool. Also, what are this guy's progressive credentials? Has he (ever) done or said anything seemingly left-wing? Would anyone notice if he were running for either of the other two provincial parties? Throw us some red meat Link.
Link turns me off. It's not that he has baggage, it's that he comes across as a tool. Also, what are this guy's progressive credentials? Has he (ever) done or said anything seemingly left-wing? Would anyone notice if he were running for either of the other two provincial parties? Throw us some red meat Link.
As a one time Saskatoonian I think this sounds about right. IMO The Sask. NDP suffers from natural governing party syndrome. The bright light attracts a lot of flying insects.
@ edmundoconnor
And Wall puts up a good false front on the aspects of issues which are in the public eye - the HST, nuclear power, and potash, among others - he is smart enough to appear to be conciliatory and middle-of-the-road.
Though one would have to be a fool to not see what sank his prececessor Elwin Hermanson - the mention of touching the sacred cow of crown corporations.
And his having Preston Manning waiting as keynote speaker at their victory party in Rosetown did not help either.
But anyone who looks beyond the surface can see what Wall is doing on labour issues, and even those same issues on which he appears to be so moderate.
Problem is that most of the public do not see or want to see that. And the current state of the NDP does not help.
Link turns me off. It's not that he has baggage, it's that he comes across as a tool. Also, what are this guy's progressive credentials? Has he (ever) done or said anything seemingly left-wing? Would anyone notice if he were running for either of the other two provincial parties? Throw us some red meat Link.
In fairness to Link, he had a fairly progressive record as Social Services minister under Blakeney. He's also been throwing a lot of red meat to progresives and the labour movement over the Wall government's anti-worker legislative record.
Well I think the only thing Link has IS to be progressive, he can't run a campaign running the middle ground, there would be no difference in policy between the NDP and SP. But i think you touched on it... he was a minister in the BLAKENEY government... thats far too old school to energize the party.
If they run a policy heavy platoform like it looks they are, they might just get the base out... and since the media is saying the party is dust, that just might help get the base out too. As much as the party needs a new leader and more time to rebuild, they don't deserve obliteration... just new blood
I think they have some good platform issues. People can get behind raising potash royalties.
... AND the SaskParty already made a stupid mistake... that looks bad on them:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/skvotes2011/story/2011/10/12/sk-election-health-promises-calculations-111012.html
When your in the lead should you not just try and play it somewhat safe? This is mistake that can haunt them... i.e. you can't even do simple math, why should we trust you with finances?... etc
Personally i'm a policy wonk, love it, so the more meaty it is the better... and i think the Better Futures fund on potash revenues is really very prudent.
I got a call from a polling agency yesterday asking about NDP policies, whether I supported raising potash royalties. I hope lots of people get calls and start realizing that we should be taking command of our resources in more of a Danny Williams (populist) type of way.
... AND the SaskParty already made a stupid mistake... that looks bad on them:
The mistake was a stupid enough mistake on its own - but it also opens the door for us to remind pwoplw about their fantasy 2009 budget.
After record potash reveues in 08, they based the budget on the assumption of even higher revenues in 09. Like winning the 50-50 at the first 'Rider game of the season and planing your household budget on the asumption of winning the 50-50 a every game.
I the end, it turned out there had been some royalty overpayments in 08 that were refunded in 09, so potash revenues were actually a net negative. Smething like 1/3 of projected revenue turned out to me overestimated by 113%.
So tell me again how the right are better managers?
I don't think most people honestly care about that, though. What happened during the last election was that rural voters voted against the NDP more than they voted for anything. Ghengis Khan could have been running and they'd have voted for him instead. They wanted change, some inkling that the NDP was listening and responsive and got the same old, same old. Given the givens, at this point Wall would have to do something clearly criminal before people will come back to the NDP. I really think the only way for that to happen in the future is for the party to do some serious housecleaning. One would hope that the old hands would have an understanding of this and graciously step aside for the good of the party and the province, but it hasn't happened yet.
We'll see, I suppose.
I didn't realize that the NDP candidate in Regina Coronation Park, Jaime Garcia, was a TV personality: Canada's Worst Handyman 2
"Main issues: Spending more time reading directions than actually implementing any remodeling ideas, Jaime's procrastination prevents him from starting and completing projects - greatly frustrating his mother-in-law!"
LOL
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/pledges+resource+negotiations/554...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2011/10/14/sk-ndp-offic...
The ad promising more medi clinics saying to enjoy the boom you need to be healthy is pretty good ..especially when you realize it was the NDP that made it all happen..The Saskatchewan party has been riding on the shirt tails of what the NDP has created...and they are loving it. I just don't trust them to keep it that way.. I can see if they are re elected how they will rip the province blind....as they are conservatives.
The only thing the Sask party is saying is Dwaine called Brad names years ago..that's all they can dig up? I'm old enough to know ..beware of right wing parties baring gifts ..like tuition funding...Devine had the same program and fixed it all after he got it that all other loans were at higher than normal interest rates and they didn't pussy foot around with legal action either...they used there own govt lawyers to go after student loans ..cleaning out bank accounts with garnishee orders ..Beware people of Saskatchewan to any party associated with Devine or the conservatives ...BEWARE..and don't listen to Gromley.....
Remember all those Devine conservative faces that appeared out of nowhere the day after the Sask party won..I do..they had to hide them from the public for Petes sake ..think of that! What does that tell you?
Then the awards dinner for the man that destroyed the province by making it bankrupt recieving medals and plaques ..Give me a break! That was a guy so ideological he destroyed the province because he believed the only way to destroy socialism was to bankrupt it..Dahhh
So he said at a speech in New York where we seen the US pull off the same garbage and boy are they paying.....this is the kind of political crap the Sask party looks up at....that and peeing on the graves of socialists ...yep don't ya all remember the sask party party tape..
Funny the same day that story came out I met a fella who was going to Afghansitan to fight in the war...he was saying his main motivation was because he heard the taliban desecrated the graves of the dead! Guess what buddy you don't have to go to Afghanistan to find slime like that ....the people of Saskatchewan elected it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0eQgUpkJ1Q
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns8LD5Q8ecchttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2011/10/19/sk-lingenfel...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2011/10/19/sk-lingenfel...
That's a pretty hefty hit piece on Lingenfelter and I think the party should try and turn it around to make Wall look unprincipled, otherwise the message might stick.
When Link ran for the SK NDP leadership I knew he had worked as a VP for an Alberta oil company but it was only during this election that I became aware of the fact that his title was that of VP for Government Relations.
For those unacquainted with corporate doublespeak, this is the word that is used nowadays for corporate lobbyists. So basically, Link was the senior government influence peddler for an Alberta energy firm. HOW did this guy ever become leader of the SK NDP???
It begs the question:
If your party is thirty-seven points ahead in the polls, why would you bother doing attack ads on the opposition leader? Is it even possible to blow a lead like that during a five week election campaign?
Possible, yes. Probable, no. Presumably the SaskParty has seen something in their internal numbers that has them concerned. That, or Kinsella's moonlighting.
Running this kind of dum-dum ad can only hurt the party behind it, and help the victim. Link's not perfect, but he doesn't deserve this kind of hit piece.
It begs the question:
If your party is thirty-seven points ahead in the polls, why would you bother doing attack ads on the opposition leader? Is it even possible to blow a lead like that during a five week election campaign?
Because reducing the NDP to a rump group of a few MLA's will ensure a better chance of winning the election after this one. Allowing the NDP any breathing space is not in the long term interests of the Sask. Party. The bigger the hole the NDP falls into in the election the longer it will take them to dig their way out.
Yorkton SaskParty candidate raises the tone. Why do conservatives in SK have to be so goddamn predictable?
Then again, from what I've heard the biggest thing Wall has going for him is that the NDP is led by Lingenfelter - who by all accounts has been a bit of a flop as leader. If the NDP holds its own and doesn't get wiped out in this election "Linc" might decide that being leader of the opposition indefinitely is better than being unemployed and might want to stick around. On the other hand if the NDP is decimated, Linc would quickly quit or be deposed and just about ANYONE the Sask NDP chose to replace him would have the potential of being more formidable in 2015.
If the Sask party makes itself unpopular - the NDP will be a threat whether it has 8 seats or 18. In 1982 the NDP was reduced to just 8 seats in the Grant Devine landslide, four years later in 1986 the NDP came within a hair of regaining power and making Devine a one term premier.
It begs the question:
If your party is thirty-seven points ahead in the polls, why would you bother doing attack ads on the opposition leader? Is it even possible to blow a lead like that during a five week election campaign?
Because reducing the NDP to a rump group of a few MLA's will ensure a better chance of winning the election after this one. Allowing the NDP any breathing space is not in the long term interests of the Sask. Party. The bigger the hole the NDP falls into in the election the longer it will take them to dig their way out.
Is it his previous job title or his present policies which interest you?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2011/10/19/sk-lingenfel...
That's a pretty hefty hit piece on Lingenfelter and I think the party should try and turn it around to make Wall look unprincipled, otherwise the message might stick.
When Link ran for the SK NDP leadership I knew he had worked as a VP for an Alberta oil company but it was only during this election that I became aware of the fact that his title was that of VP for Government Relations.
For those unacquainted with corporate doublespeak, this is the word that is used nowadays for corporate lobbyists. So basically, Link was the senior government influence peddler for an Alberta energy firm. HOW did this guy ever become leader of the SK NDP???
If the Sask party makes itself unpopular - the NDP will be a threat whether it has 8 seats or 18. In 1982 the NDP was reduced to just 8 seats in the Grant Devine landslide, four years later in 1986 the NDP came within a hair of regaining power and making Devine a one term premier.
And that was all before the 1991 election, where an orange hurricane ran through the province, and Romanow captured 55 seats. If the Liberal vote had been weaker than it was, then even more PCers would have been tossed out. After that, and the scandal over expenses, the PC party imploded, ganged up with some Liberals, and became the Stop-the-NDP Party (sorry, the SaskParty). The SK NDP has been weak at times, but it has resiliency, and could spring back to stage a surprise in 2015. Wall's been spending much more than he's taking in, and if potash royalties tank or even stumble, he'll be caught with his pants down. The SaskParty empire is one built on sand. A puff of wind in the right (or left) direction, and it crumbles.
Stockholm, you just criticized an NDP leader. Are you sure you're feeling alright?
1986 vs 1991 for Sask PC vs NDP is like 1996 vs 2001 for BC NDP vs Lib. The latter date making up for the cheated-out-of-victoryness of the former date...
Stockholm, you just criticized an NDP leader. Are you sure you're feeling alright?
Actually I've criticized lots of NDP leaders. I was never that wild about Howard Hampton and thought Frances Lankin would have been better. I thought he was a bit of a turn-off to the Ontario voters. I also made no secret of the fact that i thought Alexa MacDonough was kind of useless and that all she did was drone on and on like a wind up toy - "health care, health care, more money, more money"
Went out doorknocking yesterday and the mood wasn't so bad. But I predict low voter turnout.
I've also been out canvassing. From my gopher's-eye level, the SK NDP will do badly, but not as badly as everyone expects. A hard core of 15 MLAs will survive, 20 if we're lucky. That's much, much better than 1982, for example, when the SK NDP got its ass kicked.
The political tradition in SK, going back over 70 years, is for the Liberals/PCs/SaskParty to make such a mess of things and spend like drunken sailors, and the CCF/NDP to then troop in with dustpans and brooms to tidy up the mess. Just when they've fixed up the worst of the damage, and made the province's finances somewhat respectable again, they get turfed because the Liberals/PCs/SaskParty promise sunshine and lollipops. At least it's predictable.
Would that be enough to force the Weak Link out of politics one way or the other? There is a good reason why the NDP is taking the focus away from him.
It should be remembered that the 2007 seat count disguised what was actually a worse defeat than 1982.
1982
PCs - 54.07% - 55/64 seats (86% of seats)
NDP - 37.64% - 9/64 seats (14% of seats.
2007
SP - 50.92% - 38/58 seats (66% of seats)
NDP - 37.24% - 20/58 seats (34% of seats)
Granted the SaskParty didn't do quite as well in 07 as the PCs did in 82, but the NDP actually got a lower percentage of the popular vote. It is almost unprecedented in a FPTP system for the opposition party's seat count to so closely resemble its percentage of the popular vote. Unfortunately, this bit of dumb luck has blinded some people to the reality of what a drubbing 07 really was.
I have to admit, Edmund, it causes me concern when people talk about the last 70 years as though the pattern you rightly outline will inevitably continue. While I think it is comforting, I think far too many New Democrats have looked to it as an excuse to avoid a serious root and branch renewal of the party.
One of the things I like about the current campaign is that the NDP is actually talking about some ideas and have cast aside the absolutely stupid campaign narrative that failed in 99, 03 and 07. "OMG the Saskies are scary" isn't a platform and we should have dropped it after the first failure in 99. I'll give Lnk that - he hasn't repeated the most stupid aspect of the last three elections. (Frankly, we'd spent a decade so overselling that "Saskies are scary" meme that Brad Wall would have had to have started biting off the heads of puppies on live TV in order to live up to our rhetorical overkill. The vacuity of the previous three campaigns actually gave him cover over the last four years.)
By no means is the SNDP dead or even on its deathbed, but we need to stop kidding ourselves that past success is the guarantee of future success. It really didn't pan out for Michael Ignatieff. The part has some issues to deal with once we're through this campaign and how we choose to deal with them (or not) will determine whether or not we're competitive in 2015.
Well, the NDP should count its blessings that the electorate's more urban/rural polarized than in 1982. Otherwise, we'd be looking at a PEI-type everyone-else-to-one result...
We are also lucky that the Liberals are so moribund in Saskatchewan that there is zero chance of the NDP being overtaken by any other party. At least there is no competition on the opposition side.
1986 vs 1991 for Sask PC vs NDP is like 1996 vs 2001 for BC NDP vs Lib. The latter date making up for the cheated-out-of-victoryness of the former date...
Indeed the FPTP system unfairly gave both the BC NDP and Devine a majority with less percentage of votes than the opposition. In both cases it seemed to magnify the discontent with dumb decisions. The BC NDP in 2001 running under a "liberal" leader got less than 22% of the vote. In both provinces the party of the elite just changed vehicles. The NDP doesn't periodically shed its skin so it carries all the baggage from every government ever elected. The right wing parties in Sask. and BC don't carry the Conservative and Socred scandals even if behind the scenes you see the same political movers and shakers and corporate backers.
We are also lucky that the Liberals are so moribund in Saskatchewan that there is zero chance of the NDP being overtaken by any other party. At least there is no competition on the opposition side.
The Liberals may be worse than moribund. They are running only eight candidates, and virtually al Liberal resources will go into the longshot race in The Battlefords in hope of having their leader elected.
Add to that the fact that their leader is an idiot - which is a significant blessing to the NDP. Ryan Bater has chosen to position the Liberals to the RIGHT of the Saskatchewan Party - choosing the shoulder over the middle of the road. Conceivably, had he chosen to occupy the ideological turf most Liberals try t claim, he might have been eating into soft NDP support. Instead, he's killed off Saskatchewan's oldest political party.
Biggest mistake the Liberals made was getting rid of Lynda Haverstock as leader. She was freaking amazing (still is, actually). But the old boys couldn't have a pretty woman in charge. Assholes.
While I'd agree that sexism played its part in the downfall of Lynda Haverstock, I think it was more an issue of the old boys club who had been running the LIberal Party out of their law offices for the previous 20 years weren't prepared to share the prospect of electoral success. It was all well and good that an outsider had (temporarily) returned the Liberals to credibility, but they couldn't have said outsider continue to run the party with the prospect of controlling the levers of patronage in play.
IOW, I think it would have played out much the same if it had been Lionel Haverstock. The only difference is that the notional Lionel Haverstock might have been invited to join the old boys club.
How did this happen exactly? For those completely unfamiliar with this aspect of Saskatchewan political history but are interested, where can we get a background?
I knew the Liberals weren't running in my neck of the woods (Saskatoon Silver Springs), but I had no idea it was that bad. Eight candidates? Even the Greens are fielding more people.
Haverstock was the sort of leader the SK Liberals fluked into, rather than actively sought out and cultivated. The 1995 election can be seen as a last stand of a party that once could count on running the province. Ever since some of the caucus bolted to form the SK Party with PC MLAs, the party has been in a death spiral. Has a provincial Liberal party ever folded? The SK Liberal party would surely be a prime candidate for the political burial ground, right along side the SK PC party.
The fact that the SK Liberal party homepage is a minor variation on the federal Liberal one (and bringing you only federal news) testifies to their almost-vertical descent in fortunes.
1. Lynda Haverstock took over the leadership of the Saskatchewan Liberal Association in the late 80s after haveing been courted by both the Conservatives and New Democrats as a potential candidate. She had a good narrative (single teenaged mom made good, by then a psycholgist specializing in farm stress). In the 1991 election that swept the Conservatives from office, Lynda was responsible for the NDP's only loss, defeating Peter Prebble in Saskatoon Greystone. In 1995, she led the Liberals to official opposition with 11 seats to the PC's five. Before the House even convened, she was overthrown in a caucus revolt led by ex-NDP MLA Glen McPherson and with the support of the Liberal old boys. She sat as an independent until the 1999 election and watched from the sidelines as the Liberal Party collapsed further, with one Liberal MLA crossing to the NDP (Belanger), four joining the PC remnant as the Saskatchewan Party (Krawetz, Bjornrud, Draude and Gantefor) and ne sitting as an independent for a time before aligning with the SP (Arlene Jule). Dr. Haverstock was subsequently appointed Lieutenant Governor and now serves as CEO for Tourism Saskatchewan.
2. There is a Liberal candidate in Saskatoon Silver Springs, Rob Stoesz.
3. You may have the link to the Liberal Party of Canada (Saskatchewan) (http://saskatchewan.liberal.ca/) as opposed to the Saskatchewan Liberal Party (http://saskliberals.ca/)
We are also lucky that the Liberals are so moribund in Saskatchewan that there is zero chance of the NDP being overtaken by any other party. At least there is no competition on the opposition side.
The Liberals may be worse than moribund. They are running only eight candidates, and virtually al Liberal resources will go into the longshot race in The Battlefords in hope of having their leader elected.
Add to that the fact that their leader is an idiot - which is a significant blessing to the NDP. Ryan Bater has chosen to position the Liberals to the RIGHT of the Saskatchewan Party - choosing the shoulder over the middle of the road. Conceivably, had he chosen to occupy the ideological turf most Liberals try t claim, he might have been eating into soft NDP support. Instead, he's killed off Saskatchewan's oldest political party.
I wouldn't say he is an idiot. He sounds like he will be a threat in Battlefords. He is taking a libertarian type stance, right on economic, left on social, same as the federal libs will do since their mushy middle has been co-opted by the Tories and NDP.
Thanks for the corrections, Malcolm.
Huh. I missed Rod Stoesz. That brings them up to nine candidates.
So she led the party to its best ever showing in 20 years and that's the thanks she got? I dare say, her decision to run as a Liberal sounds principled, given how she could have easily been elected under the NDP banner had she so chosen.
Lingenfelter is hammering Wall. Totally won the debate. Wall seemed unusually timid.
1. I think it is, at the very least, counterintuitive for Bater to run the Liberals as the riht wing alternatve to the Saskies. The Liberals don't have the cred to pull it off, and there is virtually no room to run. Had he run to the centre (ie, to the left of the Saskies but the right of the NDP) there would have been a very real possibility of eroding the SaskParty and significantly eating into NDP support. It may be that he's highly principled - in which case I have to reassess my conviction that the last Liberal with principles was Chubby Power.
2. My count of eight included Stoesz. Of course, that was me counting from the Elections Saskatchewan list which seems to have come down from the site.
3. Had the Liberals not self-destructed, I think it is quite likely that Haverstock would have become Premier in 1999. Krawetz, Draude, Gantefor and Bjornrud probably all put their Cabinet appointments off by eight years.
2. My count of eight included Stoesz. Of course, that was me counting from the Elections Saskatchewan list which seems to have come down from the site.
The SK Liberal Party has nine candidates on its website. And Elections Saskatchewan has the same nine candidates here.
What impact would that have had on Saskatchewan politics? We can safely assume that the PCs would have continued to langusih in the wilderness. Would those voting patterns be repeated at the federal level? What style of government would a hypothetical Premier Haverstock run? Would it have been a centrist government, or tacked more to the right like their provincial cousins in BC and Quebec? Would the NDP be in better shape now after having been forced to undergo a renewal process and be in good shape this election to either form the government, or would it be near the end of a successful first term and have a good likelihood of being re-elected?
1. Edmund, I obviously miscounted yesterday. Tx.
2. Curious to speculate, Ari. A Haverstock win in 99 might well have set SK politics as a contest between the moderate left and the moderate right rather than the moderate left and the generally hard right. Lynda did have her weaknesses as a leader as well, so she might well have self-destructed as leader of the opposition. One well placed Liberal of my acquaintance said that LG was the best possible job for her, since she got to be a princess.
So she led the party to its best ever showing in 20 years and that's the thanks she got? I dare say, her decision to run as a Liberal sounds principled, given how she could have easily been elected under the NDP banner had she so chosen.
I think her decision to go with the Liberals was principled. And there is no doubt in my mind that it was sexism that led to the caucus revolt that took her out of the leadership. My father was a long-time Liberal party member - he was so furious at what happened that it was the end of his support for them. The idea that she would have faced anywhere near the opposition to her leadership if she had been male is ludicrous.
I won't for a second dispute that sexism was a significant part of what happened to Lynda Haverstock at the hands of the Liberal old boys. There was a vicious pettiness to it that probably wouldn't have been there if she hadn't been a woman. But I also think that, once the Liberals looked like they had a shot at power, the old boys would have overthrown whatever placeholder (as they saw it) happened to hold the leader's chair, regardless of sex or anything else. Yes, it likely would have been less vicious had it been Lionel Haverstock - but I still think Lionel would have been overthrown too.
On the debate:
I think Link was uncomfortable in the early stages, but he really warmed up as it wore on. He came out swinging on the potash royalties, and sounded extraordinarily reasonable by changing the rate from a nickel in the dollar to a dime. His line about how the CEO of PCS is making $100 million a year, and could give some of that up, was especially well-done. Wall sounded like he's always sounded: a smooth, soft-voiced apologist for big business who wants to asset-strip the province.
Lingenfelter could have been better, but he could have been a heck of a lot worse. He landed some punches, and drew some blood. Not enough, but some. I loved Link alluding to Wall was connected the Devine government without even mentioning his name, and how Wall didn't touch that allegation with a bargepole.
The CBC in BC this morning said no one one. The only station carrying it in BC was Sun and I have not tuned in to them yet and have no intention to any more than I would tune in to Fox TV.
So what do the Sask. folk think, did Link impress enough to get a boast in the polls?
There was no "knockout punch." Link started off stiff and got better. Wall started out glib and stayed glib. Link was more substantive.
Wondering if Link won simply by showing up and holding his own--by the sound of things, there wasn't a "Bob Skelly 1986" circumstance...
Who knows what people are thinking? Sometimes I wonder if this province even has a pulse.
A Sask poll!
http://www.insightrix.com/?action=d7_article_viewer_view_article&Join_ID=353893 Looks bad: SaskParty - 60% NDP - 33% Greens - 3% Liberals - 2.8%(i didn't even want to mention this, but it made me laugh) BUT... since Nov09 the NDP have gained 10% and the SaskParty have lost 6%; to me its looking like MAN in reverse; the Saskies will win the rural lands with a dash of urban ridings (might even lose some if the NDP can concentrate/get out the vote) while the NDP wins in the cities. Would a held-on result be enough for Link to stay on as leader? Those of us here thought Link did a decent job in the debate but only 14% thought he won... but 32% thought they were about the same, i think that can be seen as some thing good. What is positive here is that almost half support the NDP's Royalty review so it looks like keeping on track with a policy based election might just save the farm.Insightrix polling has never actually been tested against a general election - nor, really, against anyone else's polling - so who really knows what this poll is worth.
That said, IF this poll is accurate, then the NDP vote has eroded from 2007 (which was already our lowest popular vote since 1938) while the erosion of the Liberal vote has gone to the SaskParty as well. The 3% for the Liberals is a complete chimera since they are only running candidates in only 9/58 of the constituencies - which suggests an actual Liberal vote of less than one half of one percent.
There are no regional breakdowns, however past performance suggests enormous SaskParty majortiies in most rural seats, which leaves some opportunity for the NDP in the cities. However, if these numbers are accurate, that would suggest that five to nine urban seats would be vulnerable.
All that said, this poll is significantly better than the last poll published (by another company whose name escapes me right now, which had never released a SK poll before).
And, as Pundits Guide is quick to remind us, riding by riding calculations based on a standard swing are notoriously unreliable. (I'm astonished that the hack who runs 308dotcom has managed to hoodwink so many people with his junk analysis.)
The death of the SK NDP, if it has been reported by anyone, has been greatly exaggerated. I have a feeling that the positive campaign that the party has been fighting will pay dividends in places. Not enough, certainly, but some. Comparing and contrasting their ads with the SaskParty's is voyaging from politeness, optimism, and reason, to some twisted version of Republican-lite.
I'd say we're looking at mid-30s in terms of numbers. Not great, but the urban/rural split will mean that the SaskParty will heap up huge majorities in the rural areas; while the NDP holds on to its redoubts in Saskatoon and Regina, and lives to fight another day.
While a boom might well persist in Saskatchewan, the SaskParty's continued mismanagement of the province's finances should/ought to catch up with it (I found it particularly rich of the SaskParty to accuse the NDP of fiscal management).
I have no doubt the SNDP will live to fight another day. But if the NDP only achieves in the mid-30s of the popular vote, that is still our lowest popular vote since 1938 (18.73) when we didn't even run a full slate (31/52). With the collapse of the Liberals, that means a popular vote split in the order of 60-35, which would be slightly more than three points down for the NDP and almost eight points up for the SaskParty. A mid-30s popular vote means the loss of seats (the first time in the party`s history it would have lost seats after a term in opposition).
I have no doubt the SNDP will live to fight another day. But if the NDP only achieves in the mid-30s of the popular vote, that is still our lowest popular vote since 1938 (18.73) when we didn't even run a full slate (31/52). With the collapse of the Liberals, that means a popular vote split in the order of 60-35, which would be slightly more than three points down for the NDP and almost eight points up for the SaskParty. A mid-30s popular vote means the loss of seats (the first time in the party`s history it would have lost seats after a term in opposition).
It seems that it is following in the BC mould. In BC the NDP only once went way below its base level but its normal base is less than 50% so it seldom wins elections. And like in Saskatchewan the Harcourt NDP and the Clark government spent enormous amounts of political capital balancing the books after Socred mismanagement. They got nothing in return after pissing off many of their natural allies with cuts and freezes on necessary social programs. No matter the sacrifices real people made the MSM and the BC Liberals still talk about the NDP fiscal mismanagement and over spending when the auditors reports show they ran the most fiscally responsible government since WAC Bennett. The current government that is up to its ears in red ink and signing off the books P3 deals as fast as they can still tries to use that line against the NDP.
I do like Dix's response. When asked about a BC Liberal on-line attack ad trying to show he personally orchestrated the Clark years he just said, "they must be really desperate."
Even if Wall and the SK PArty win big I don't think it means people trust or like them. I just think people in this province are the farthest thing from revolutionary in the whole damn country. They truly believe that if a government stands up to big business than the jobs will go away. I mean sure it is possible but are we just supposed to let Potash Corp walk all over us?
@ knownothing
I wouldn't say that people here don't stand up. They certainly got up in arms over the proposed BHP Billiton deal, even though that same line about losing jobs was used in that case.
The fact that Wall was able to fool people into thinking he was defending Saskatchewan resources as if it were a crown corporation, and stand up to the prime minister, is a testament to how great a politician he can be when he is on his game. It was a great piece of political theatre - expecially great because it was a complete pack of lies.
Of course now that it is a case of PotashCorp paying a fair share after the province and shareholders saved their hides, he is singing a completely different tune.
There are other lines Wall knows he cannot openly cross - yet - although he would dearly love to.
Funny that he should make his first mis-step on the decision to bring schools back after Labour Day, making the announcement at a tourism event, and before saying anything to the school divisions,
Of course, the purpose of the schools announcement was to distract attention from the Potash Corp 3d quarter report. Even the Insightrix polling says the NDP's policy of a royalty review is more popular that the Wall position.
Interesting too that Wall is committed to revenue sharing with municipalities, but he considers a resource revenue deal with First Nations completely unacceptable.
well perhaps he doesn't see First Nations as supportive of his con govt - do yeah think?
I think any illusions that many First Nations/Métis folk held about the SaskParty being remotely interested in their welfare were smashed after the comments of the SaskParty's Yorkton candidate. People like Jim Pankiw still walk among us as members of the SaskParty.
Talking to someone familiar with Sask politics. Said he's now predicting 12 - 16 seats.
Your thoughts, Malcolm?
There have been two published polls, both bleak.
See http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
Insighttrix. SaskP 60%, NDP 33.3
Forum. SaskP 66, NDP 30
The Greens and Libs poll infinitessimally in each.
Last election: SaskP 50.9, NDP 37.2
Insightrix swing: 14% = 14 NDP seats (this includes Regina Walsh Acres where there was no SaskP candidate last time so comparison is dubious)
Forum swing: 22.3% = 7 NDP seats (Including RWA)
These are of course based on a uniform province wide swing and there may be some hope that the swing in less in NDP held seats. Forum Research, however, suggests that it may be greater in these seats:
Regina: SaskP 61, NDP 35
Saskatoon: SaskP 66, NDP 30.
These are appalling numbers given that the NDP carried 7 of 12 Saskatoon seats last time and 8 of 11 in Regina.
308 projects 15 NDP seats by weighting the polls but seven of those seats are on the knife-edge in its estimation.
Another way of looking at the prosepects may be to compare the Federal results where the Cons outpolled the NDP by 56.4 to 32.4. These numbers are similar for the NDP and suggest that The SaskP is getting most tof the 8.2% which voted Liberal. If the federal results are strictly replicated there would be a swing of only 8.2% which if applied uniformly would save the NDP 15 seats.
Does anyone know which seats would have gone NDP if the federal vote were transposed to the provincial boundaries?
The Sask Party have been building huge suburbs in the urban areas like Harbour Landing in Regina and these are all Tory voters. Gonna be a different demographic than last time.
@6079 The BHP fiasco was a strategic ploy by Harper and Wall to create a fake threat of one international company being bought out by another international company. The only reason people in this province got up in arms about it is because HArper, Wall, and the right-wing media here told them to.
Our only hope is low voter turnout.
Yes, I realize that it was staged, knownothing. That is what I said. It is still the height of irony that they built that lie around the story that the people were protecting Saskatchewan's control of its own resources.
People actually were up in arms, and a lot of them believed they were fighting for that principle.
All it took in the election before last was one peep by Hermanson about looking at privatization of the crowns, and he blew his chance at winning. I think that sentiment is still there, even though the SaskParty are doing everything they can to erode it, and doing as much damage as they can without coming right out and putting them on the block.
And there are a few other issues where I think Wall knows he would face opposition if he acted openly.
You are right about them eroding fear towards privatization. I fear we may lose our beloved crown corps.
Or "incumbency bounce".
I remain of the firm belief that the SaskParty will deny that they are in a mountain of debt right up to the point when they deem it possible for them to sell the Crowns. A crisis will be (and is being) engineered, and the public, having been softened up by years of nibbling at the edges, will swallow it, or there will be less resistance than there otherwise would be. Even if the backlash is stronger than they anticipated (and the NDP effectively whacks them around the head with their fiscal incompetence), and they get thrown out at the next election, they can rest easy knowing that under NAFTA, the government cannot re-provincialize the Crowns.
Sparked by Malcolm's thoughts in another thread, I should point out that the SK Green Party is displaying some rightward drift of its own. While they too are troubled by the lack of affordable housing in the province, they would 'incentivize' the private sector to build more housing. Would this be the same private sector that has done such a bang-up job of providing affordable housing and reasonable rent in Saskatchewan? I can't imagine some of the veterans from the Saskatchewan Green Alliance days can be too pleased with that little item.
The bringing in of Elizabeth May at their campaign launch, the lack of even a distinctive logo (even the Ontario party has one), and their previous leader out campaigning for the SK NDP must have caused at least some to be uncomfortable with the way things are going.
Not saying it's impossible, but I think it's hard to imagine topping the mess that the NDP had to clean up after last time.
More likely, I'd see them waiting until the time has run out on their own clock, and they realize they are going to lose the next election. That would be the obvious time to pull the real mercenary stuff like selling Sasktel, SaskPower or SGI.
One positive thing I'm hearing is that the canvass marks are coming in better than last time in most of the Regina ridings.
More likely, I'd see them waiting until the time has run out on their own clock, and they realize they are going to lose the next election. That would be the obvious time to pull the real mercenary stuff like selling Sasktel, SaskPower or SGI.
They do that, and Saskatchewan voters will put them six feet under for a generation. If the SaskParty rolls out Grant Devine to tout the selling of the Crowns, you know they're heading to oblivion.
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Continued here.
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