Saskatchewan Provincial Election - Nov 7 / 11

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6079_Smith_W

Interesting too that Wall is committed to revenue sharing with municipalities, but he considers a resource revenue deal with First Nations completely unacceptable. 

 

janfromthebruce

well perhaps he doesn't see First Nations as supportive of his con govt - do yeah think?

edmundoconnor

I think any illusions that many First Nations/Métis folk held about the SaskParty being remotely interested in their welfare were smashed after the comments of the SaskParty's Yorkton candidate. People like Jim Pankiw still walk among us as members of the SaskParty.

Hunky_Monkey

Talking to someone familiar with Sask politics. Said he's now predicting 12 - 16 seats.

Your thoughts, Malcolm?

nicky

There have been two published polls, both bleak.

 See http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

Insighttrix. SaskP 60%, NDP 33.3

Forum. SaskP 66, NDP 30

The Greens and Libs poll infinitessimally in each.

Last election: SaskP 50.9, NDP 37.2

Insightrix swing: 14% = 14 NDP seats (this includes Regina Walsh Acres where there was no SaskP candidate last time so comparison is dubious)

Forum swing: 22.3% = 7 NDP seats (Including RWA)

These are of course based on a uniform province wide swing and there may be some hope that the swing in less in NDP held seats. Forum Research, however, suggests that it may be greater in these seats:

Regina: SaskP 61, NDP 35

Saskatoon: SaskP 66, NDP 30.

These are appalling numbers given that the NDP carried 7 of 12 Saskatoon seats last time and 8 of 11 in Regina.

 308 projects 15 NDP seats by weighting the polls but seven of those seats are on the knife-edge in its estimation.

 Another way of looking at the prosepects may be to compare the Federal results where the Cons outpolled the NDP by 56.4 to 32.4. These numbers are similar for the NDP and suggest that The SaskP is getting most tof the 8.2% which voted Liberal. If the federal results are strictly replicated there would be a swing of only 8.2% which if applied uniformly would save the NDP 15 seats.

Does anyone know which seats would have gone NDP if the federal vote were transposed to the provincial boundaries?

 

 

knownothing knownothing's picture

The Sask Party have been building huge suburbs in the urban areas like Harbour Landing in Regina and these are all Tory voters. Gonna be a different demographic than last time.

@6079 The BHP fiasco was a strategic ploy by Harper and Wall to create a fake threat of one international company being bought out by another international company. The only reason people in this province got up in arms about it is because HArper, Wall, and the right-wing media here told them to.

Our only hope is low voter turnout.

 

6079_Smith_W

Yes, I realize that it was staged, knownothing. That is what I said. It is still the height of irony that they built that lie around the story that the people were protecting Saskatchewan's control of its own resources.

People actually were up in arms, and a lot of them believed they were fighting for that principle.

All it took in the election before last was one peep by Hermanson about looking at privatization of the crowns, and he blew his chance at winning. I think that sentiment is still there, even though the SaskParty are doing everything they can to erode it, and doing as much damage as they can without coming right out and putting them on the block.

And there are a few other issues where I think Wall knows he would face opposition if he acted openly.

 

knownothing knownothing's picture

You are right about them eroding fear towards privatization. I fear we may lose our beloved crown corps.

adma

knownothing wrote:
Our only hope is low voter turnout.

Or "incumbency bounce".

edmundoconnor

I remain of the firm belief that the SaskParty will deny that they are in a mountain of debt right up to the point when they deem it possible for them to sell the Crowns. A crisis will be (and is being) engineered, and the public, having been softened up by years of nibbling at the edges, will swallow it, or there will be less resistance than there otherwise would be. Even if the backlash is stronger than they anticipated (and the NDP effectively whacks them around the head with their fiscal incompetence), and they get thrown out at the next election, they can rest easy knowing that under NAFTA, the government cannot re-provincialize the Crowns.

edmundoconnor

Sparked by Malcolm's thoughts in another thread, I should point out that the SK Green Party is displaying some rightward drift of its own. While they too are troubled by the lack of affordable housing in the province, they would 'incentivize' the private sector to build more housing. Would this be the same private sector that has done such a bang-up job of providing affordable housing and reasonable rent in Saskatchewan? I can't imagine some of the veterans from the Saskatchewan Green Alliance days can be too pleased with that little item.

The bringing in of Elizabeth May at their campaign launch, the lack of even a distinctive logo (even the Ontario party has one), and their previous leader out campaigning for the SK NDP must have caused at least some to be uncomfortable with the way things are going.

6079_Smith_W

Not saying it's impossible, but I think it's hard to imagine topping the mess that the NDP had to clean up after last time. 

More likely, I'd see them waiting until the time has run out on their own clock, and they realize they are going to lose the next election. That would be the obvious time to pull the real mercenary stuff like selling Sasktel, SaskPower or SGI.

 

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

One positive thing I'm hearing is that the canvass marks are coming in better than last time in most of the Regina ridings.

edmundoconnor

6079_Smith_W wrote:

More likely, I'd see them waiting until the time has run out on their own clock, and they realize they are going to lose the next election. That would be the obvious time to pull the real mercenary stuff like selling Sasktel, SaskPower or SGI.

They do that, and Saskatchewan voters will put them six feet under for a generation. If the SaskParty rolls out Grant Devine to tout the selling of the Crowns, you know they're heading to oblivion.

edmundoconnor
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