Uh, explain this

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The Analyst The Analyst's picture
Uh, explain this

Okay, so Probe Research shows that the PCs (43% of popular support) are up on the NDP (29% popular support) by 14 percentage points in the popular vote. 

 Manitoba Party Standings Stabilize

Other polls determined that Manitobans hate the PST hike.

Manitobans say poor fiscal management at root of PST hike

Yet the Dippers & PCs are statistically tied in Winnipeg (for popular support) and the PCs only have a 10 percentage point advantage over the Dippers in southwest Winnipeg. 

I find this amazing. I mean, isn't the southwest suppose to be the urban base  of the Tories? I mean, without rock solid NDP support I suspected it'd be one of the first areas to fold for the party. 

Are there some demographic shifts I'm not taking into account?

Regions: 
genstrike

Well, last election the NDP cleaned up everything but Charleswood, Tuxedo, and Fort Whyte (and River East in the north), so they obviously have some support.  I think apart from a couple nail-biters like St. Norbert, they won pretty much everything by 10% or more - it wasn't really all that close in ridings like Fort Richmond, Riel, Seine River, etc.  I think the mainstream media's explanation for this is that "Today's NDP" is good at appealing to the "suburban soccer mom" crowd.

Also, it doesn't say specifically which ridings specifically make up "southwest Winnipeg" - If we're talking just the fringes, I'd be a little surprised, but maybe it also includes some ridings closer in that the NDP does well in, such as up into the Fort Garry/Lord Roberts/Fort Rouge area.

Also, it doesn't look like the biggest sample size either - the chart says "Caution: Small Base" at the bottom, so I'd imagine the margin of error might be a little wide - it's +/- 3.1 on 95% certainty for the whole province.  It's been a long time since I took a statistics class, but I'd image the margin of error to be pretty high on these subgroups which are about a tenth the size.

ghoris

If the NDP and Tories are in fact still statistically tied in Winnipeg, that shows how dismal the prospects are for the Tories. They cannot win without making major gains in Winnipeg. Period. Whether you win Steinbach with 65 or 85% of the vote doesn't matter - still one seat.

Even worse for the PCs, I suspect that most people's memories about the PST hike will likely fade by October 2015, and perhaps by then the financial situation will be such that the government can even roll back the hike. Jennifer Howard is a much more adept politician than Stan Struthers, and will no doubt do a better job selling the government's fiscal policy than he did. Selinger has also put women like Theresa Oswald, Kerri Irvin-Ross and Erin Selby front and centre in some key portfolios (Jobs and Economy, Family Services and Health, respectively) so that will no doubt help reinforce the NDP's appeal to the "South Winnipeg-suburban-soccer mom" demographic mentioned above.

genstrike

ghoris wrote:

If the NDP and Tories are in fact still statistically tied in Winnipeg, that shows how dismal the prospects are for the Tories. They cannot win without making major gains in Winnipeg. Period. Whether you win Steinbach with 65 or 85% of the vote doesn't matter - still one seat.

Actually, if they are statistically tied in Winnipeg, that is really good for them.  They only need 10 more seats to get a majority, and if they win even a third of the seats in Winnipeg, that will likely be enough to put them over the top.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
Even worse for the PCs, I suspect that most people's memories about the PST hike will likely fade by October 2015, and perhaps by then the financial situation will be such that the government can even roll back the hike. Jennifer Howard is a much more adept politician than Stan Struthers, and will no doubt do a better job selling the government's fiscal policy than he did. Selinger has also put women like Theresa Oswald, Kerri Irvin-Ross and Erin Selby front and centre in some key portfolios (Jobs and Economy, Family Services and Health, respectively) so that will no doubt help reinforce the NDP's appeal to the "South Winnipeg-suburban-soccer mom" demographic mentioned above.

I doubt that. It's one thing for a government to raise a sales tax (and nearly every politician who did since the GST was implemented has paid for it), but Selinger explicitly said in the last campaign that he wouldn't. The NDP has also been quite aloof in dealing with the public backlash. As for lowering the PST in time for an election, the NDP has already had to extend its timeline by which it hopes the books come back into surplus, and for quite a few years the actual deficit has been higher than projected.

I also get the sense that the government as a whole will end up wearing it. Even if the NDP manages to push Selinger overboard before the next go (doubtful in itself) the government will still face heat. I also have the sense that the Manitoba NDP is headed in the exact same direction that there Saskatchewan counterparts were at this point in their mandate, that the internal mechanisms for dissent within the Manitoba NDP have been gutted or shut down (my sense is that there's not much else to do in the Manitoba NDP besides give money, free labour at election time, and cheer on Our Glorious Leader, which I simply don't have time for) and that the NDP will go down hard.

Over-riding all this is that Manitobans are jaded enough that they would vote out the entire political establishment in this province if they could. My sense is that the next election will be far nastier than anything we have ever seen, that it will be a competition between which party can best turn out its own base while regular people tune out the election entirely, and that we will probably see record low turnout.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I also get the sense that the government as a whole will end up wearing it. Even if the NDP manages to push Selinger overboard before the next go (doubtful in itself) the government will still face heat. I also have the sense that the Manitoba NDP is headed in the exact same direction that there Saskatchewan counterparts were at this point in their mandate, that the internal mechanisms for dissent within the Manitoba NDP have been gutted or shut down (my sense is that there's not much else to do in the Manitoba NDP besides give money, free labour at election time, and cheer on Our Glorious Leader, which I simply don't have time for) and that the NDP will go down hard.

Who do you think will be running if (as the present trajectory seems to indicate) Selinger loses the next election?

Aristotleded24

We'll have to see which 3 NDP MLAs get re-elected first.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

We'll have to see which 3 NDP MLAs get re-elected first.

I'm pretty confident Steve Ashton will be one of 'em.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

We'll have to see which 3 NDP MLAs get re-elected first.

threehundredeight.com is projecting nine NDP seats

Aristotleded24

There are rumours that Drew Caldwell may run for Mayor of Brandon.

PrairieDemocrat15

It is still amazing what little political gains the PCs have made out of the NDP's fall from grace. The NDP has lost 20% of its 2011 support and the PCs have only gained 5% since the election. Where things stand now, those 15% of voters who shifted from the NDP to the Liberals may decide the 2016 election. If they say with the Liberals, we may have a similar situation to that which elevated Gary Filmon to office: vote-splitting on the left. If the NDP is able to court those people back under the orange banner, Selinger may just snatch victory from the jaws of defeat (again).

Although I prefer an NDP government to a PC one, I think some time in the Opposition benches would do the party well. It has lost touch with its base and done several things a leftist government shouldn't (of which raising a regressive sales tax is one). I just hope the Liberals don't replace them as the main alternative to the Conservatives.

Aristotleded24

As I said upthread, I believe the only factor that will determine whether Sellinger steps down is whether or not Sellinger wants to step down, and I get the sense that he could very well want to stay on beyond when his popular mandate has expired. The only other NDP leader to step down while this party was in government was Gary Doer, and he went when he wanted.

Unionist

Aristotleded24 wrote:

 The only other NDP leader to step down while this party was in government was Gary Doer, and he went when he wanted.

Well, technically speaking, Howard Pawley's NDP was still in power in 1988 when he decided to step down as party leader rather than lead the party into the next election - which was won by Gary Filmon's PCs.

Unless I've got things mixed up as usual.

 

Policywonk

Unionist wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

 The only other NDP leader to step down while this party was in government was Gary Doer, and he went when he wanted.

Well, technically speaking, Howard Pawley's NDP was still in power in 1988 when he decided to step down as party leader rather than lead the party into the next election - which was won by Gary Filmon's PCs.

Unless I've got things mixed up as usual.

Technically indeed. He had just lost a non-confidence vote over a budget.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

I certainly wonder if some of Pallister's mistruths and missteps (which are being out shined by NDP minister lies and blunders in the press right now) will sink his support in south Winnipeg. I can sorta imagine a scenario where Pallister screw ups push some south end suburban swing voters the Libs, which, coupled with draining NDP support, could give them a strong position in Winnipeg.

Aristotleded24

Unionist wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

 The only other NDP leader to step down while this party was in government was Gary Doer, and he went when he wanted.

Well, technically speaking, Howard Pawley's NDP was still in power in 1988 when he decided to step down as party leader rather than lead the party into the next election - which was won by Gary Filmon's PCs.

Unless I've got things mixed up as usual.

I should have clarified that I meant while this particular NDP government was in office.

You might be able to speak to this better than me, but I also had a sense that there had been a great deal of discord within the NDP at the time that Pawley stepped down, and that he did so partly because he knew he had lost control and that he wanted to fall on his sword so the party would have some hope. In the same circumstances, I honestly can't see Sellinger sacrificing himself in such a fashion for the good of the party.

PrairieDemocrat15

Since this thread is call "explain this," can someone tell my why Pallister is filing an elections act complaint over the government's celebration of women's sufferage in Manitoba around the same time as the by-elections? Or could someone explain why he chose to misleadingly write about hypothetical NDP healthcare quene abuses in an op-ed (which was rejected by the Free Press and even the SUN) when the government has recently produced so many very real scandals? Even the true blue Free Press editorial board scolded him for that.

NorthReport

 

Selinger rallies the troops at NDP convention

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2014/02/08/selinger-rallies-the-troops-at-ndp...