Why did Judy Wasylycia-leis lose the mayoral race?

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The Analyst The Analyst's picture
Why did Judy Wasylycia-leis lose the mayoral race?

Okay, given the prospects of a re-match in 2014, I think this is a good question to ask. There's the obvious incumbency bias in Winnipeg. But it's alos noteworthy to list one of the reasons she gave:

"She said that she simply “wasn’t prepared to counter the kind of attacks that Sam Katz made” against that pledge, including a robo-call campaign in which the mayor warned that seniors and “homeowners on the poverty bubble” would lose their homes because of the increase. (Since the election, Winnipeggers have seen new or increased frontage levies, garbage / recycling fees, sewer / water fees PLUS a 3.5% property tax increase.)" - Christian Cassidy

http://www.communitynewscommons.org/our-city/wasylycia-leis-i-should-hav...

I found this staggering. You're running against a conservative pseudo-populist with a plan that includes raising taxes and yet have no idea how to counter "tax hikes will hurt you" rhetoric?!!

I was speaking to an NDP partisan a few months ago who claimed that Katz's attacks were unprecedentedly nasty. I don't buy it, especially given some of the anti-tax rhetoric that's been coming out of the Federal arena. With years of experience in federal politics, Judy should've been more than ready to counter Sammy's fiscal fantasy rhetoric.

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Aristotleded24

The web page does not work.

Unionist
The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Unionist wrote:
Try this:
">http://www.communitynewscommons.org/our-city/wasylycia-leis-i-should-hav...

Thanks. That is indeed the right link.

Aristotleded24

The Analyst wrote:
I found this staggering. You're running against a conservative pseudo-populist with a plan that includes raising taxes and yet have no idea how to counter "tax hikes will hurt you" rhetoric?!!

I was speaking to an NDP partisan a few months ago who claimed that Katz's attacks were unprecedentedly nasty. I don't buy it, especially given some of the anti-tax rhetoric that's been coming out of the Federal arena. With years of experience in federal politics, Judy should've been more than ready to counter Sammy's fiscal fantasy rhetoric.

She never really had to counter that rhetoric as a federal politician. She was Judy Wasylicia-Leis, the popular MP for a safe NDP seat in Winnipeg North, and as such didn't really have to worry about attacks because she would just get re-elected anyways. Her biggest mistake was treating the city election campaign as if she were simply running for a safe North End NDP seat, and wasn't prepared to ask tough questions. She also could have done far more to pin Katz' failures on rapid transit than what she did.

jas

The Analyst wrote:

I found this staggering. You're running against a conservative pseudo-populist with a plan that includes raising taxes and yet have no idea how to counter "tax hikes will hurt you" rhetoric?!!

Not to mention that Sam did, of course, raise taxes shortly after winning re-election, lol. 

Re: her campaign: I got the feeling that her heart wasn't completely in it from the beginning, that there was, deeper down, some indecision or uncertainty that reflected in her campaign. Hopefully, if she's running in 2014, this will have been resolved.

That said, I was astounded at the anti-campaign on the ground that the Katz team must have been running. I only recognized this in retrospect when I recalled comments made one day by younger co-workers who I had previously taken for utterly apolitical (and, imo, not the most astute anyway) making rather detailed criticisms of W-L and her platform points, but much of it being false or outrageous exaggerations. I challenged them on this, causing them to immediately pull up her website (they knew where it was and how to find it) and of course they could not back up their outrageous claims. But the fact that these two, whom I'd never before heard utter any political opinion whatsoever, had been politicized to this degree about a municipal campaign was astonishing to me. It shows how simple, moronic repetition of false claims is also employed to influence opinion on the ground.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

jas wrote:

Re: her campaign: I got the feeling that her heart wasn't completely in it from the beginning, that there was, deeper down, some indecision or uncertainty that reflected in her campaign. Hopefully, if she's running in 2014, this will have been resolved.

A relative of mine thought that she was using the Mayoral run as cover for retirement. If she's running in 2014, it appears that might not be the case. 

Whoever is running needs to start building up their political organization and public messaging machine right now. 

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

jas wrote:

That said, I was astounded at the anti-campaign on the ground that the Katz team must have been running. I only recognized this in retrospect when I recalled comments made one day by younger co-workers who I had previously taken for utterly apolitical (and, imo, not the most astute anyway) making rather detailed criticisms of W-L and her platform points, but much of it being false or outrageous exaggerations. I challenged them on this, causing them to immediately pull up her website (they knew where it was and how to find it) and of course they could not back up their outrageous claims. But the fact that these two, whom I'd never before heard utter any political opinion whatsoever, had been politicized to this degree about a municipal campaign was astonishing to me. It shows how simple, moronic repetition of false claims is also employed to influence opinion on the ground.

 

This article is worth a read. Replace "liberals" with "left-wingers" and you'll have a very succinct account of the issues facing left-leaning activists and politicians in Canada.

jas

Yes, I'm reminded of the slogans that ushered in the Socreds (BC Liberals) in 2001: "fudge-it budget" and "Fast Ferries". Thirteen years later, the BC Liberals have doubled (some think tripled, if you count off-the-book obligations) the provincial debt. On the books it's now $62 billion. The Fast Ferries "scandal" of 2000 was a drop in the bucket compared to a number of recent BC Liberal projects. Yet you still hear people talking about Fast Ferries as if that's some reason to, at all costs, keep the NDP out. Or about Glen Clark's porch. It's incredible. It's incredible how opinion will maintain even in an onslaught of facts. It's the tenacity of stupidity. That's how parties like the Liberals get in.

ETA: so I think that's what the article is pointing out. You have to cater to stupidity as much as, if not more than intelligence. You have to play the game, and you have to play it ruthlessly.

 

So is Judy running?

 

 

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

jas wrote:

 

So is Judy running?

 

 

 

Candidates can't legally "formally" declare until May 1.

And there's other restrictions, as Colin Fast notes:

Colin Fast wrote:
As one example, Coun. Scott Fielding recently held an event on Waverley Street to announce his plan to redirect Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) funding toward new roads and underpasses. It’s clearly a campaign activity, but Fielding claims that standing on a street corner in River

Heights is part of his job as councillor for St. James.

Fielding isn’t alone. Colleagues like Paula Havixbeck and John Orlikow have used their current positions and resources to hammer potential mayoral opponents, and Mayor Sam Katz recently overhauled his paid office staff as part of a possible re-election bid.

Meanwhile, outsiders can’t spend a dime. Gord Steeves was chastised by the city clerk’s department for buying balloons when he announced his intent to run for mayor, and Judy Wasylycia-Leis had to hold a volunteer meeting in her own home because renting a hall would break the law.

http://metronews.ca/voices/urban-compass-winnipeg/995491/winnipeg-electi...

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/bowing-out-before-race-for-mayor-... news on the mayoral election front:[/url]

Quote:
John Orlikow boasted in January he would easily be elected Winnipeg's next mayor.

But Friday afternoon, the councillor from River Heights said he won't run after all.

"Running for mayor is not the right decision for me at this time," Orlikow said in a statement on his web page, citing his obligation to his family as outweighing his earlier confidence.

Orlikow is known as a progressive and his withdrawal clears the way for the only other centre-left contender, Judy Wasylycia-Leis.

zerocarbs

jas wrote:

It shows how simple, moronic repetition of false claims is also employed to influence opinion on the ground.

That's how Ford won Toronto, and may win again.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

jas wrote:

 

ETA: so I think that's what the article is pointing out. You have to cater to stupidity as much as, if not more than intelligence. You have to play the game, and you have to play it ruthlessly.

 

 

The main rationale for message discipline is that voters have divided attentions (that is, lives to lead) and varying degrees of interest in politics. In an environment oversaturated with information of all sorts, one has to repeat, repeat and repeat again to break through the noise. More pithy points are easier to remember. Those are the basics of message discipline.