2014 Toronto mayoral election

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mark_alfred
2014 Toronto mayoral election

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mark_alfred

Here's a wikipedia page that lists who has currently registered to run, along with who potentially is running.  It's believed that Olivia Chow, with her My Journey book release, will announce that she's running shortly.  Also, there are very strong rumours of John Tory entering the race.  Currently it's Soknacki and Ford and a whack of no-names who've entered.  Stintz has declared, but hasn't officially registered yet.

mark_alfred

Coverage of a speech by David Soknacki. 

Quote:
A major difference between the two contenders is their views on public transit. Soknacki backs a new light rail transit (LRT) line for Scarborough, over Ford’s plan for a $3.5 billion subway.

Soknacki said an LRT — which the provincial government had originally committed to fund in full — would provide more service at less cost.

“I’m still astounded to be the only major mayoral candidate who believes it’s better to have more modern rapid transit — for more people, years sooner, at half the price and without a billion-dollar property tax increase.”

Soknacki also focuses on cutting taxes.  He seems to be a fiscal conservative who has some integrity.

mark_alfred

John Barber, in his article Does John Tory Still Matter, speculates the Tory likely won't run (and even if he does, Barber doubts that he could win).

mark_alfred

Toronto Star is hosting a live chat with David Soknacki tomorrow (Tuesday Jan 27) at noon. 

mark_alfred

Despite polls showing Olivia Chow ranking quite highly, Steve Paikan predicts she will be the underdog in this race.  He made an error in the Star article he linked to, which is almost a year old, but otherwise his points are interesting.

mark_alfred

CBC radio just announced that John Tory is going to enter the mayor race today. 

ETA:  Also, apparently Stintz will officially enter the race today.

NorthReport

Hate Rogers? Look who was their registered lobbyist until just a few days ago 


http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/02/hate-rogers-look-who-was-their-registe...

mark_alfred

Apparently at a Toronto Region Board of Trade meeting today, Stinz stated that to pay for transit expansion (to fight congestion) we could sell off city assets like Toronto Hydro.

Brachina

http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/02/john-tory-is-getting-nervous/

 

 Warren takes aim at John Tory again on behalf of Olivia Chow. This was an all you can eat character assassination of John Tory. Its still weird to be on the same side as Warren, at least when it comes to supporting Olivia Chow.

mark_alfred

I find that odd too.  But I guess as a Liberal who worked with Chretien quite some time ago, he still feels some anger over the ad tactics that Tory employed against Chretien for Campbell in the 1993 election, and he guesses that Chow is the best bet to beat him.

Brachina

 I will say Warren makes a useful attack dog.

ghoris

I don't think it's got anything to do with the Chretien ads. Kinsella was part of Tory's campaign in the 2003 election (won by David Miller). Kinsella went on to be quite a vocal critic of Miller and continued to promote Tory as a potential mayor even after his tenure as Ontario PC leader. Kinsella was all set to work on Tory's mayoral campaign in 2010 but Tory ultimately decided not to run. 

After the Ford Follies started, Kinsella said that he would not support Tory for mayor again but his attacks have become quite vicious in the last few weeks. He used to call Tory a friend, now he just says he's "a nice man". Not to be too inside baseball, but it makes me wonder if he is getting nervous about having backed the wrong horse and having burned too many bridges.

All of which is by way of saying, if I were Olivia Chow I wouldn't put too much stock in 'support' from Warren Kinsella.

mark_alfred

Well, it's hard to make sense of it then.  Perhaps though city politics truly is divorced from the party politics one sees federally and provincially (or at least a lot more separate).  So people are freer to just support who they like, regardless of any perceived or real party affiliation.  Miller had both NDPers, Liberals, and Conservatives in his corner, and I'm sure other candidates have a variety of people of different political persuasions in their corner.  Political operatives, like all of us, desire employment, and thus may choose to work for people that deviate slightly from their political beliefs.  Apparently Chow also has Smitherman as a declared supporter.

Brachina

  i here she even has some major Tory supporters I here, I don't remember thier names.

adma

John Laschinger, for one.

mark_alfred

Transit is an important issue in this election race.  Soknacki so far is the only candidate to say he'd reverse the wasteful decision of subways in Scarborough and replace it with LRTs.  Calgary's Mayor Naheed Nenshi had this to say on the issue:

Naheed Nenshi wrote:
I, for the life of me, cannot understand the decision on the Scarborough subway and maybe I’m missing something. I don’t understand why you’d not spend less to serve more people.  Clearly I’m missing something. I’m not that bright.

His last statement was said while rolling his eyes.

I'm a big fan of Olivia Chow, but (assuming she enters) if she too supports the subway plan here, I may reconsider my support.

mark_alfred

Here's a poll.  It's fascinating.  Tory is doing a bit better than before, and in a two-way race with either Chow or Ford he would win.  However, with both Chow and Ford in the race, along with Stintz and Soknacki, Tory comes in third and loses, and it's a toss-up whether Ford or Chow wins.  With just the three front runners, it's a three way tie.

There's other bizarre gems in it too, like this:

Quote:
In this match‐up (all three of the front runners in the race), mothers with kids are more likely than others to favour Mayor Ford (39%), and less likely to favour either John Tory (20%) or Olivia Chow (26%).

So, apparently mothers with kids are the strongest supporters of Rob Ford.

Stockholm

I guess they must see him as a good role model for their children!

mark_alfred

Matt Elliott of Metro has been posting some interesting articles debunking some of Ford's myths.  Here's one on subways.

 

Also, Olivia Chow has finally entered the race.  I'm curious what her position on subways as opposed to LRTs will be.  To me, if there isn't the population density to support a subway, then it shouldn't be built.

Brachina

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/...

 For once I agree with Ford, it is the best news I heard all day! ;D

 Some how I think Ford's in for a surprise when Olivia takes his job.

 And Stintz is disgusting for recycling that old smear, even Ford refused to drop to that level.

mark_alfred

Agreed about Stintz.

The Globe and Mail is rooting for Tory (editorial).  They do not want to see Chow win.  They feel he should attack Ford more. 

Tory obviously doesn't agree with the Globe.  Tory's focussing his attacks on Chow instead, and already has an attack site up.

mark_alfred

I think Ford is trying the same polling technique he used last time.  I got a call asking whom I would vote for in the Trinity-Spadina riding provincially (my former address).  So I chose Marchese (NDP MPP).  I then was asked whom I preferred as a second choice, and was given the options "Tim Hudak or Kathleen Wynne"?  Sensing this was a test from the Ford campaign as to whether I was a potential supporter, I chose Hudak just to please them.

The polling is very brief and somewhat odd, but it's similar to what they did last time with the two questions.  I think it's to find people who are open to far right ideas even if they hadn't chosen them in their first choice, using only choices that people will be familiar with (particularly in the second question).

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Get ready to cite Scott Piatkowski a lot in the coming months: Co-op housing smear has no merit

Skinny Dipper

mark_alfred wrote:

Agreed about Stintz.

The Globe and Mail is rooting for Tory (editorial).  They do not want to see Chow win.  They feel he should attack Ford more. 

Tory obviously doesn't agree with the Globe.  Tory's focussing his attacks on Chow instead, and already has an attack site up.

I think both John Tory and Olivia Chow's campaign team knows that the mayoral race will be between their two candidates.  While there will be policy differences which both Mr. Tory and Ms. Chow can attack each other, their supporters will need to go after the character of each candidate in order to reach the fence sitters.  Yes, Ms. Chow will be criticized for her book tour while being paid as an M.P.  Mr. Tory will be criticized for screwing over customers while at Rogers.

It will be pointless to attack Rob Ford on his drug (Doug--my joke) use and hanging around with criminals.  The voters who oppose Ford's use of drugs and criminal friends have already left him.  The people who are sticking by him seem to seek instant gratification that Ford is willing to promise them.  Rob and Doug make personal visits to inspect low-income housing buildings to give the appearance that they care about the people living there.  Rob promises subways not because they are more efficient--they are not always more efficient.  It's because they subways represent a higher social status for people using them.  Rob and Doug hand out $20 bills to people in need of immediate cash rather than propose programs or other ways to get low-income people out of poverty.  Both Mr. Tory and Ms. Chow will need to attack Rob Ford on his inefficient method of attempting to raise the social status of low income people.  They also need to offer meaningful promises that will help get the people out of poverty and raise their social status.

mark_alfred

Skinny Dipper wrote:

Both Mr. Tory and Ms. Chow will need to attack Rob Ford on his inefficient method of attempting to raise the social status of low income people.  They also need to offer meaningful promises that will help get the people out of poverty and raise their social status.

Most people recoil at the idea of needing help, even if they actually do need help.  So I'm guessing most of the candidates will campaign on being efficient managers (IE, vote for me and potholes will be fixed pronto!)

There's no real parallel between Tory and Chow.  His policies are the same as Ford's policies, but with less controversy.

theleftyinvestor

mark_alfred wrote:

There's no real parallel between Tory and Chow.  His policies are the same as Ford's policies, but with less controversy.

Tory is a conservative with whom you can have a reasonable respectful conversation. To his credit, that is a good quality, but that doesn't mean I'd want him as mayor.

I am just surprised Tory is running for anything again. His electoral record is so poor, both behind the scenes and as a candidate, I can't fathom why he keeps trying at this point.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Old Sun TO has a poll on Chow. 

mark_alfred

Karen Stintz is adopting the Mike Harris approach to government finance: Stintz says utility sale could help pay for new subway line.

mark_alfred

Video of most recent debate at Ryerson:  link

theleftyinvestor

The debate Wednesday was such a clusterfk. No moderation or fact-checking whatsoever meant that Ford could just keep repeating his imaginary budget savings claims, and the debate became about he-said she-said rather than being kept grounded in reality.

Unionist

mark_alfred wrote:

Video of most recent debate at Ryerson:  link

It's been taken down.

 

Maysie Maysie's picture
Pogo Pogo's picture

Wow.  Maybe you could get away with that 50 years ago...

jerrym

Oliva did well in the first mayoral debate.

Quote:
 Wednesday’s CityNews debate between candidates Ford, Olivia Chow, John Tory, Karen Stintz and David Soknacki started with civil opening statements but descended into a yelling match and never really recovered.

Chow in particular, took hard shots at Mayor Ford for his leadership on the transit file, saying he plays “political games” with his “subways, subways, subways” mantra regardless of evidence.

“You are embarrassing our city,” Chow said of Ford’s “crazy lying.”

But Ford, for his part, remained steady on his feet, sticking closely to his oft-repeated campaign lines of saving the “taxpayers’ money,” often managing to make himself heard over his opponents.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03/26/toronto-mayoral-debate-live-rob-...

For what it's worth here is the result of an online poll for the debate:

Quote:

Rob Ford 43.57%  (349 votes)  

Olivia Chow 31.34%  (251 votes)  

John Tory 14.11%  (113 votes)  

Don't blame me: I voted for Kodos. 6.24%  (50 votes)  

David Soknacki 2.62%  (21 votes) 

 Karen Stintz 2.12%  (17 votes)   

Total Votes: 801

http://globalnews.ca/news/1233238/toronto-election-no-big-winner-in-firs...

jerrym

Here are some of the best lines of the debates, including a couple by Olivia:

Quote:
 

"You’ve let the citizens of this city down. You’ve let the reputation of this city down. Maybe you’d like to address that. (Tory, to Ford)

“I don’t really need to take any lessons from you, because we’re not on the golf course right now.” (Chow, to Tory)

“How could you get away with all this crazy lying? Because there’s not truth.” (Chow, to Ford)

“John, you had your chance at the province and you fell flat on your face. You know it and I know it.” (Ford, referencing Tory’s time as leader of the Ontario PC party)

http://www.torontolife.com/tag/john-tory/

mark_alfred

Chow will be the only mayoral candidate to go to the Garrison Ball.  Seems Ford wasn't invited (Kelly was instead), and anyone else who wanted to go had to buy tickets.  Chow was the only candidate who thought ahead to get tickets before they were sold out.

arielc

Chow said that anyone from Toronto in Hong Kong "shares the shame" of having Ford as mayor. The newspaper writes that "a conservative estimate of the number of Torontonians in Hong Kong would reach more than 100,000."

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/#!/content/1.2596152

What a great move!
:)

mark_alfred

arielc wrote:

Chow said that anyone from Toronto in Hong Kong "shares the shame" of having Ford as mayor. The newspaper writes that "a conservative estimate of the number of Torontonians in Hong Kong would reach more than 100,000."

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/#!/content/1.2596152 What a great move! :)

That's great stuff.  She really knows how to campaign. 

theleftyinvestor

She is encouraging Torontonians in Hong Kong to oust Ford...

Under what conditions can an expat in HK vote in the mayoral election? I suppose if they own property in Toronto. Otherwise I don't see how they'd have a right to vote.

Sineed

Catchfire wrote:

Get ready to cite Scott Piatkowski a lot in the coming months: Co-op housing smear has no merit

Royson James has been there already:

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2014/03/15/chows_past_also_sheds_l...

Quote:
As well, she will have to live with the story that won’t die. She and husband Jack Layton lived in a subsidized housing building, a co-op for low- to moderate-income citizens, while they both were politicians in the 1990s, making a combined $120,000, twice the moderate income level, yet paying just $800 a month for a three-bedroom downtown.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

theleftyinvestor wrote:

She is encouraging Torontonians in Hong Kong to oust Ford...

Under what conditions can an expat in HK vote in the mayoral election? I suppose if they own property in Toronto. Otherwise I don't see how they'd have a right to vote.

I would assume they can if they've retained Canadian citizenship and are registered to vote in the GTA.  Many countries allow people who are citizens but live abroad to cast votes in local and national elections...France even has "overseas department" seats in the National Assembly(one was just established for French citizens living in the U.S. and Canada in the last election).

theleftyinvestor

"registered to vote in the GTA" - GTA is misused as it includes cities other than Toronto. GTA residents outside of Toronto cannot vote in Toronto unless they own property there. Similar to the misuse of referring to Rob Ford's voters as "905ers", as 905 only starts outside the Toronto megacity limits.

Anyway - this is a municipal election. Why should someone without a current attachment to Toronto be voting for its mayor?

Who Can Vote

You can vote in Toronto’s municipal election if you are:

  • a Canadian citizen; and
  • at least 18 years old; and
  • a resident in the City of Toronto; or
  • a non-resident of the City of Toronto, but you or your spouse own or rent property in the City; and
  • not prohibited from voting under any law

Note

You may only vote once in the City of Toronto municipal election regardless of how many properties you own or rent within the City. You must vote in the ward where you live.

Students in Residence

There is a special rule for students who may be living away from home while they attend school. If you are a student and consider your "home" to be the place where you live when you are not attending school, which means you plan on returning there, then you are eligible to vote in both your "home" municipality and in the municipality where you currently live while attending school.

So any HK resident who can oust Ford would either have to be a CDN citizen student abroad whose home municipality is Toronto, or a CDN citizen owner of property in Toronto.

terrytowel

Rob Ford just accepted an endorsement from former steroid user & stripped Olympic medalist Ben Johnson.

The mayor was asked what he thought about Johnson's own record.

"You know what? I support Ben 100 per cent," Ford said. "We’ve all made mistakes in life. I’ve supported him since Day 1 and that’s the bottom line."

felixr

70% of Torontonians think Mayor Ford has a substance abuse problem according to Forum's latest poll.

Sineed

In today's Star:

Quote:

Olivia Chow led Rob Ford and John Tory in the latest poll on the mayoral election, maintaining an advantage she has held in most of the polls conducted in these early days of the 2014 campaign.

Chow had 34 per cent support, Ford 27 per cent, and Tory 24 per cent in the survey, taken Monday. She enjoyed a wider lead, of eight points, only on the day she launched her campaign in mid-March; she was in a statistical tie with Ford in the last public poll, conducted on March 27.

I was one of the 884 people polled. The article also goes on to say that 49% of voters say they will never vote for Ford, though I don't recall that being a question.

Thus far, it seems that RoFo and Tory are splitting the right-wing vote as was predicted by numerous pundits for months. If these polling numbers remain consistent in the coming months, it'll be interesting to see how the right handles this. I have popcorn at the ready.

Sineed

felixr wrote:

70% of Torontonians think Mayor Ford has a substance abuse problem according to Forum's latest poll.

I've been polled twice now (one of the benefits of having a land line), and the substance abuse question kinda squicks me. It feels prurient, like American-style politics.

zerocarbs

I can't get over how feeble all of the candidates are. Chow will probably win, but not because she's any good, just because Tory is such a hopeless campaigner and the way Ford/Stintz are splitting the rest of right wind vote (which incidentally would win if we had PR - careful what you wish for).

Skinny Dipper

We will likely not hear the candidates present big campaign announcements until the beginning of September.  They may present select promises for September in order to keep the momentum in their campaigns going.  It's likely that most of the candidates are reaching out to their core supporters first so that they can aquire volunteers for campaigning and for raising funds.

felixr

Chow's opponents are weak. The fact that RoFo is leading their pack is a damning indictment of their lot. Perhaps this race will end with a tacit "stop-Ford" movement, with Chow being the most likely beneficiary.

Pogo Pogo's picture

zerocarbs wrote:

I can't get over how feeble all of the candidates are. Chow will probably win, but not because she's any good, just because Tory is such a hopeless campaigner and the way Ford/Stintz are splitting the rest of right wind vote (which incidentally would win if we had PR - careful what you wish for).

  You don't look for PR as a route to power, but as a route to democracy.

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