2014 Toronto mayoral election

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terrytowel

The poll from Maple Stratgies has been broken down by party voting intentions.

Rob Ford’s coalition is comprised of a base of Conservatives supplemented with a small contingent of NDP’ers who are likely drawn by his populist approach.

In fact those polled who idenitfy as NDP supporters, almost a quarter of them (24%) are supporting Ford!

http://mapleleafstrategies.com/below-the-topline-additional-observations...

josh

The Forum Research poll is the third poll in a row to find that Tory has overtaken Chow. This poll, though, is by far her worst of the whole campaign: it put her 10 points behind Tory and in a statistical tie with incumbent Rob Ford, who nominally led her by two points. Tory had 35 per cent, Ford 27 per cent, Chow 25 per cent.

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/toronto2014election/2014/08/08/tor...

ctrl190

Those are terrible numbers for Chow. The Chow camp needs to figure out how to gain momentum, and fast. The moment Tory is seen as the most-likely-to-topple-Ford candidate, Chow's soft supporters will begin to shift over to Tory.

adma

ctrl190 wrote:
The moment Tory is seen as the most-likely-to-topple-Ford candidate, Chow's soft supporters will begin to shift over to Tory.

Don't know about that so much--a lot of "soft Chow" support would rather plump for Soknacki than Tory--however, I *can* see a fair bit of remaining "soft" Ford support now figuring that John Tory is the safer and saner "free enterprise coalition" option.

In a way, John Tory clicking as a "Jim Watson" figure of stability.

adma

One thing I'm trying to recall, though (and excuse me for sounding morbid): back around that 2010-11 juncture after Ford was elected but before the Orange Crush, was (or wasn't) there any talk of Jack Layton as a potential 2014 Mayoral candidate?

terrytowel

The problem with Chow is a communications issue. She has never run in a race where she was leader. She has only had to go door knocking in Trinity-Spadina, and participate in a few local debates. She didn't even campaign that much with Jack, as she was in a fight everytime to win T-S.

As such she has not mastered the art of the 30 second soundbite, and she has struggled when giving speeches. Not getting her message out clearly. There is a language barrier, she should have taken speech lessons to correct her punctuation.

I knew this would be her downfall even before she entered the race.

She took it for granted that her name recognition and Layton legacy would carry her through.

Love him or hate him, one thing about Ford is that he knows how to attack and deflect political shots. John Tory as well.

If the public cannot understand your message, you are going to falter. As such she has not gotten it out clearly.

I get the feeling Chow is going to be the Hillary Clinton of 2008

Stockholm

adma wrote:

however, I *can* see a fair bit of remaining "soft" Ford support now figuring that John Tory is the safer and saner "free enterprise coalition" option.

In a way, John Tory clicking as a "Jim Watson" figure of stability.

I'm not so sure about that. The Ford support is from irrational people who don't know left from right - they just have this deluded view that Ford somehow represents "the people". Its interesting that when polls ask Ford supporters who their second choice is - a large majority have no second choice at all and the rest actually split pretty evenly between Chow and Tory. If you are a poor visible minority in a housing project in Etobicoke who supports Ford because he returns phone calls - what exactly would motivate you to vote strategically for John Tory to stop Olivia Chow?

Jacob Two-Two

I have no idea how well Chow is doing, but I wouldn't trust any poll from Forum. I'd advise people to leave that out of your political calculations.

terrytowel

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

I have no idea how well Chow is doing, but I wouldn't trust any poll from Forum. I'd advise people to leave that out of your political calculations.

If it was just Forum that would be one thing. But there has been the Nanos poll and Maple Leaf Strategies. All three have John Tory in the lead.

nicky

I think a lot of Olivia's support in the early polls was based on name recognition and sympathy for her as Jack's widow. This aspect of her support was not earned or based on her own merits. It is therefore subject to erosion which is what we are now seeing.

I fully expect that Justin Trudeau's support, also centred on name recognition and projection of his father's image, is vulnerable to similar erosion.

lagatta

Another zinger from good ole Rob:  "the jobless don't need transit"

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/08/12/rob_ford_the_jobless_dont_nee...

How the hell are they supposed to look for jobs?

Brian Glennie

lagatta wrote:

Another zinger from good ole Rob:  "the jobless don't need transit"

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/08/12/rob_ford_the_jobless_dont_nee...

How the hell are they supposed to look for jobs?

They quote Karen Stintz and Tory's spokesperson but The Star doesn't even mention Olivia in that article. I get the sense she's lost momentum and that can be very difficult for a candidate to re-gain.

I wonder if she were to lose in October if there's any chance she'd run Federally in 2015?

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

That Rob Ford could get more popularity than a joke candidate is a real tribute to Toronto.

Geoff

Olivia could only win if the crack head maintained at least a good chunk of his support.  Looks like Tory's finally going to win something.  Stick a fork in it, folks; this turkey's done.

josh

One of Olivia Chow’s senior operatives alleged on Tuesday morning that John Tory’s transit proposal is “segregationist.” He apologized on Wednesday morning. Warren Kinsella, who leads the so-called rapid response “war room” for Chow’s mayoral campaign, made the comment on Twitter.

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/toronto2014election/2014/08/20/cho...

What's the old saying? Something about lying down with dogs and getting fleas?

terrytowel

Olivia Chow said Wednesday morning at a transit announcement that Kinsella is only a volunteer on her campaign and said he does not speak for her campaign.

“I do not believe Mr. Tory discriminates. My campaign did not say that,” she said, adding Kinsella — one of the better known political strategists in the country — was just one of “thousands” of volunteers.

Chow did admit that Kinsella’s company does media monitoring work for her campaign.

Tory said Chow’s response was “not leadership.”

“She refused to take any responsibility for this and kind of [threw] it off as if he’s one of thousands of volunteers,” Tory said at a Wednesday afternoon press conference. “I’d like some accountability from her to say this was a senior operative on her campaign, not someone who walked off the street to stamp some envelopes.”

“[It's] totally unacceptable in the politics of Toronto in 2014,” he said, describing Kinsella’s attack as “dirty politics.”

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/08/20/olivia-chow-operative-warren-kin...

Right now Olivia is re-arranging the chairs on the Titanic.

 

Stockholm

Does that mean Tory will take responsibility for all the dirty tricks Nick Kouvalis has committed over the years - including some directed at Tory himself?

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

Does that mean Tory will take responsibility for all the dirty tricks Nick Kouvalis has committed over the years - including some directed at Tory himself?

You will have to bring up some examples (minus Tory as he doesn't seemed bothered by Kouvalis tricks against him)

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

If John Tory becomes mayor will he bring in 'negative option billing' for Toronto taxpayers? Interesting how Stintz says she wants to be CFL commissioner. I wonder who gave her that idea, John Tory?

Warren Kinsella's hand no longer seems to be on the pulse of the Toronto voter. "Media monitoring?" WTF do we do here on Rabble? Any news which is of any concern drops down to here in seconds. People might know that Kinsella was in charge of John Tory's war room when he ran against David Miller way back when.

Something fishy here...

Debater

I thought Kinsella disliked John Tory.  He's worked against him in the past, most notably when Kinsella ran Dalton McGuinty's war room in the 2007 Ontario election when John Tory was PC Leader.

I'm not a fan of Kinsella myself, but Chow is the one who hired him to help run her campaign earlier this year.  It appears they have now had a falling out.

I'm surprised that Tory has moved to the top of the polls in Toronto.  I thought he was pretty much done for.  But it seems like Chow lost some ground over the Summer, and maybe the NDP losing Trinity-Spadina in June had an effect, as well.  Tim Harper speculated that it might. 

Still, based on Tory's history of losing campaigns both provincially and municipally, Chow has still got a good shot of beating him in the end.

terrytowel

Debater wrote:

I'm surprised that Tory has moved to the top of the polls in Toronto.  I thought he was pretty much done for.  But it seems like Chow lost some ground over the Summer, and maybe the NDP losing Trinity-Spadina in June had an effect, as well.  Tim Harper speculated that it might. 

Still, based on Tory's history of losing campaigns both provincially and municipally, Chow has still got a good shot of beating him in the end.

I doubt it. As I said in my response below Chow is a very poor public speaker. She has not been able to communicate her message properly, as evidenced in her drop in the polls. Because she can't communicate with the electorate, people don't know what she stands for.

http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/2014-toronto-mayoral-election?page=3#com...

In addition she made a HUGE mistake choosing purple as her campaign colors. 4 years ago George Smitherman used the color purple, and sublimable people might associate purple with George and a losing campaign.

Debater

Olivia has always liked the colour purple as far as I know.  Weren't several of her outfits from her days as an MP from the Layton era in purple?

The colour purple, of course, does have some historical meanings in other contexts.  It used to be the colour associated with royalty, and the expression 'who will get to wear the purple next'? meant who would become the next King, etc.

It's also the name of the Alice Walker novel & the movie from the 1980's starring Oprah Winfrey.

terrytowel

Debater wrote:

Olivia has always liked the colour purple as far as I know.  Weren't several of her outfits from her days as an MP from the Layton era in purple?

She only had one jacket that is purple. She mostly wore her yellow jacket as that is her favorite color.

She should have chosen more appealing, neutral colors for her campaign. Since yellow is her fav, maybe a combo of colors with yellow as the dominate one.

lagatta

This is interesting; my first reaction to her colour scheme was how ugly it is.

Yes, she seems to be choosing yellow clothing. Yellow is sunny and hopeful - but it was also a very nasty slur against people of East Asian origin, and far more common when Olivia was a girl.

Geoff

What colour are John Tory's suits?  Just wondering.

lagatta

A standard Tory colour. Dark blue would be the most symbolic.

I'm a woman, and I tend to wear dark clothing as well. Don't think I own anything yellow.

Sean in Ottawa

I am not shocked. What would be her next career move if she does not win. She certainly has something to offer.

I am not surprised-- I thought for a long time that this was a long shot as I figured Ford would fade and an anti-Chow move would happen on the Right.

I wondered from the start if her run was a miscalculation -- her federal seat lost and nothing gained.

She might have done better turning to the ONDP if she wanted out of Ottawa. Certainly transit which is a key issue for her has huge possibilities at the provincial level.

terrytowel

Olivia campaign colors

versus John Tory Campaign Colors

btw I'm not surprised that Olivia wouldn't pull it off

Lord Palmerston

Will the "strategic vote" stampede to Tory?

https://twitter.com/TorStarEditor/status/504830349873258496

Maysie Maysie's picture

Will this make a difference?

Rob Ford appeared inebriated at high school football practices, documents alleged

Quote:
 In the months before Toronto Mayor Rob Ford was banned from coaching high school football, he allegedly threatened a teacher, appeared inebriated for a crucial practice and at an equipment handout and forced his teenaged players to roll around in goose scat as he berated them with profanity after winning a big game.

Charming.

nicky

I hope this guy isn't right but he makes a pretty good argument:

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/08/27/why_rob_ford_will_w...

 

lagatta

Tory colours were easy to predict. I don't get any prize for the dark blue!

terrytowel

nicky wrote:

I hope this guy isn't right but he makes a pretty good argument:

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/08/27/why_rob_ford_will_w...

Latest Forum poll John Tory led with 34 per cent, Ford had 31 per cent, Chow had 23 per cent, and David Soknacki had 4 per cent.

Ford's former press secretary said it is unlikely as their are not enough conservative voters in Toronto to get him re-elected. But Ford is getting support from NDP voters, almost 25% of his support is from that camp.

Dispite that I always said Ford had a realistic shot, and what we need to do is make sure their are enough councillors to vote and deny him his powers and continue to make him mayor in name only.

josh

John Tory maintains a narrow lead over Rob Ford after Karen Stintz dropped out of the Toronto mayoral race, according to a new poll by Forum Research. The poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday, found that Tory is still ahead of Ford, but the lead is narrowing. Meanwhile, support for former NDP MP Olivia Chow is steadily decreasing. The Aug. 25-26 poll, which surveyed 1,945 people, found that Tory had 36 per cent of the vote, Ford had 31 per cent and Chow had *26* per cent.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Yes she has always liked the colour.  It represents spiritual awareness, physical and mental healing and Red Purple brings both luck and good fortune.

Quote:

Regarding colours with the understanding of the Five Element theory allows to understand the five ‘main’ colours as a process, showing the Chinese Taoistic thought of the Five Elements as a further and more refined step to understand and categorize or analyse the Yin-Yang philosophy, as the Theory of the Five Elements describes the interaction and relation between Yin and Yang, between phenomena.

Below a brief list of associations.
Note that colours are ‘in motion’ as well. A colour can consist of a “main, dominating” colour and a shade of another colour. Such a mixture of a colours can lead to a combined interpretation.

PURPLE - spiritual awareness, physical and mental healing, hence strength, abundance, red purple brings luck and fame. Purple (紫; zǐ) refers to the North Star (Polaris), which in ancient China was called the Ziwei Star, the North Star was in traditional Chinese astrology the abode of the Celestial Emperor. (see also: Purple Forbidden City)

http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/Chinese_Customs/colours.htm

DaveW

a pundit muses on Fords "likely" re-election:

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/08/27/why_rob_ford_will_win_again_in_toronto.html

 

sorry, a repeat of link above,

but I am not sure if he overestimates name recognition, as several "star"candidates have flopped face-first lately, despite every household knowing who they were , hello, PK Peladeau....

 

 

terrytowel

ctrl190 wrote:

For the Chow campaign, they need to treat October 1 as election day. At that point, whoever is the most likely to defeat Ford - Tory or Chow - will be the annointed "anti-Ford" candidate and swallow the majority of votes from the weaker second place candidate.

I wouldn't quite annoint Tory as mayor-in-waiting. He has self-sabotaged his almost-certain political victories twice now. Both Chow and Tory still have a lot of money in their coffers and a key endorsement, TV ad or social media campaign could shift momentum. In my estimation Chow probably has more volunteers and feet on the ground than Tory. 

That is what George Smitherman thought, yet his GOTV organization were actually pulling people to the polling booth who would vote for Ford!

Speaking of ground game, the Toronto Sun reported that the Ford camp said they have more volunteers door-knocking and GOTV than 2010.

John Tory people told Macleans they have a ground game made up of 3,000 plus volunteers and are in good shape for E-day.

ctrl190

For the Chow campaign, they need to treat October 1 as election day. At that point, whoever is the most likely to defeat Ford - Tory or Chow - will be the annointed "anti-Ford" candidate and swallow the majority of votes from the weaker second place candidate.

I wouldn't quite annoint Tory as mayor-in-waiting. He has self-sabotaged his almost-certain political victories twice now. Both Chow and Tory still have a lot of money in their coffers and a key endorsement, TV ad or social media campaign could shift momentum. In my estimation Chow probably has more volunteers and feet on the ground than Tory. 

Still, even as a supporter, I must admit Olivia's campaign has been very disappointing. She has been light on policy and overshadowed by Tory on the public transit and accountability narrative. Olivia's Achilles heel has always been her stubborn loyalty to her inner circle. This has been observed in her anointing of political predecessors - Helen Kennedy in 2006, and Joe Cressy in 2014, to disappointing results - and her dependency on NDP Hill staff to run her mayoral campaign, like Nathan Rotman and Jamey Heath, two of Jack's closest confidants.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

1. The big deal is going to be Rob Ford's "Rehabilitation". The violins will be out with the Salvation Army. Rob'll be hurtin' and we can't be hatin', eh? Give the little guy another chance, eh?
2. If Toronto re-elects Rob Ford because "they wanted to see what it was like", Toronto is going to see what it is like, all right.
3. The decline of Ms. Chow's political career seems to be irreversable.

 

Skinny Dipper

Olivia Chow's campaign has been lackluster in my opinion.  She has focused on buses, trees, and services for children.  While these are nice, they are not vote getters in a municipal mayoral campaign.  When she touted her expanded bus service program, she ignored the proposal for a downtown relief subway line.  She claimed that it should not be an issue as it won't likely be built until 2030.  That may be true.  However, that lack of original interest showed that she had not long-term vision for Toronto that people could support.  John Tory has his faulty SmartTrack proposal that leaves gaps in transit expansion in parts of the city.  However, it shows that he is thinking long term.  People can latch onto that.  Perhaps, they may not support the specifics of SmartTrack.  They will support the idea that John Tory has some sort of long term vision for Toronto's transit.

Ms. Chow wants to create a bigger tree canopy for Toronto.  Again, that's nice, but it won't get voters wowed into supporting her.  She does have a jobs plan to get young people planting trees.  Unfortunately, I think many young people and their families want jobs as doctors, lawyers, business professionals, scientists, and technologists.  Tree planting as a future career is probably not a top priority for many young people and their families.  I'm sure it's probably a good career if one is working in the forestry industry.  However, within Toronto, I don't think the tree canopy issue will attract a lot of attention.

Better social services for children are nice.  Which group of voters will benefit?  Will this attract a large number of voters to support Ms. Chow?

One thing about Olivia Chow's campaign is that its team have made the assumption that with originally four right-of-centre candidates (Ford, Tory, Soknacki, and Stintz), the right would be split and she could win with the left.  Instead, John Tory has captured a lot of support from the right and centre.  He has also captured support from all parts of the city including the old city of Toronto.

I think that Olivia Chow has about less than a week to re-prioritize her campaign on changing the focus of her main issues.  Otherwise, John Tory will likely win.

Ms. Chow's elected political career may be over soon.  Technically, she is not elected to anything right now.  However, I won't feel bad for her.  She does receive a parliamentary pension for her minimum six years of elected service.  No doubt, someone will appoint her to some board or agency after the election.  Perhaps, John Tory or Kathleen Wynne can give her an appointment.

terrytowel

How long before John Tory says "You cannot stop Rob Ford by voting for Olivia Chow"

Skinny Dipper wrote:

One thing about Olivia Chow's campaign is that its team have made the assumption that with originally four right-of-centre candidates (Ford, Tory, Soknacki, and Stintz), the right would be split and she could win with the left.  Instead, John Tory has captured a lot of support from the right and centre.  He has also captured support from all parts of the city including the old city of Toronto.

Why did Andrea Horwath go after the Rob Ford/Toronto Sun/Tim Horton's voter with a populist message? Because polling showed that  Ford is getting almost 25% support from NDP voters.

Olivia took for granted the NDP vote. Assuming that if someone identified as an NDP supporter, would automatically vote for her. Not the case as almost a quarter of Ford support is from the NDP.

Skinny Dipper wrote:

Ms. Chow's elected political career may be over soon.  Technically, she is not elected to anything right now.  However, I won't feel bad for her.  She does receive a parliamentary pension for her minimum six years of elected service.  No doubt, someone will appoint her to some board or agency after the election.  Perhaps, John Tory or Kathleen Wynne can give her an appointment.

Well there were rumours that PM Harper wanted to appoint her Lt Gov of Ontario, to clear the way for John Tory to win. She denies such an offer. But she gets her pension, plus Jack's pension. John Tory has said she is a 'millionaire' so Olivia might be down. But she won't be out for long. She will find something to do.

Debater

Perhaps Olivia Chow could run for provincial NDP leader if Andrea Horwath steps down after the convention.  She might be a stronger leader than Horwath and could be more popular than Horwath in the GTA and give Kathleen Wynne a closer competition in that region.

But it's not over yet.  The 3 candidates are still close.  The media is trying to re-habilitate Ford & whitewash his appaling behaviour.  As for John Tory, considering he has ruined almost everything he has touched in the past (eg. the Kim Campbell campaign in the 1993 election which he oversaw, his previous Toronto mayoral run, his provincial loss to Dalton McGuinty) he could still implode by the time Election Day comes around.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

My 42 year old son, who lives in Trinity-Spadina, was saying this week, only half jokingly, that he might have to consider a strategic vote for Rob Ford if it comes down to a contest between Ford and Tory. His reasoning is that Tory would be much more capable of pushing a right wing agenda through council than Ford, who would likely be legislatively paralyzed for another term. Better no legislation than more right wing legislation.

 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Don't forget Tory was CEO of Rogers as well, and they have been known to send out bills for things that people didn't want. You don't want John Tory sending you a 'negative option' property tax bill. Interesting how Tory was the CFL commissioner and how Karen Stintz said she wanted that job after she quit her campaign.

Debater

I don't see how any progressive voter could seriously vote for Rob Ford over John Tory.  That line of reasoning seems very flawed to me.  If Rob Ford were re-elected, he would have more political capital and be able to exert more influence at council than he currently is.  I don't think you can just assume his agenda would be held up.  It might embolden him even further.  Harper is becoming more right-wing the longer he stays in office, not more moderate.

adma

Michael Moriarity wrote:
My 42 year old son, who lives in Trinity-Spadina, was saying this week, only half jokingly, that he might have to consider a strategic vote for Rob Ford if it comes down to a contest between Ford and Tory. His reasoning is that Tory would be much more capable of pushing a right wing agenda through council than Ford, who would likely be legislatively paralyzed for another term. Better no legislation than more right wing legislation.

Some offered a similar Ford vs Smitherman mayoralty rationalization in 2010, too.

terrytowel

Michael Moriarity wrote:

His reasoning is that Tory would be much more capable of pushing a right wing agenda through council than Ford, who would likely be legislatively paralyzed for another term. Better no legislation than more right wing legislation.

Council is more emboldened now after the Rob Ford years. Either way (Ford or Tory) they are not going to follow any mayor's agenda anymore.

We need Ford OUT no matter what.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Toronto is quite a massochistic place. John Tory might make Toronto boring again, and that will mean there will be no more fun in the sun. The serious problem with John Tory is the trust factor, and his propensity for questionable judgement. Everyone pretty well knows what Ford is going to try to do, and the chances are Toronto City Council will stop it.

Unionist

Not sure what to think of this:

[url=http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/views-expressed/2014/08/why-black-people... Black people should spoil their ballot in this Toronto mayor's election[/url]

 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Maybe the best way to defeat Rob Ford would be to have Warren Kinsella volunteer for his campaign.

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