2018 Ontario Polls

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NorthReport
2018 Ontario Polls
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NorthReport

Not surprised by this latest poll as Andrea Horwath is the most popular Leader in Ontario

Now with NDP governments in BC (Premier John Horgan) and Alberta (Premier Rachel Notley) it sure does seem overdue for the NDP to make a significant breakthrough in Ontario

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

What the fuck does that matter when the Liberals are behind the Tories by 9% ?

What an unhealthy obsession you have with the Liberals.

Get back to us when the NDP is only 3% behind the PC's. SMFH.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Being the alternative to government going into the election is no small feat for a traditional third party. Big projects are accomplished one step at a time.

NorthReport

Well said Pogo.

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‘Very messy’ leaders race proof PCs not ready to govern: Horwath

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/02/17/messy-leaders-race-proof-pcs-not-ready-g...

NorthReport

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath says Ontario PCs are in 'race to the bottom'

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/02/17/news/ndp-leader-andrea-horwa...

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NorthReport

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is correct. It most definitely is a race to the bottom. Patrick Brown has just been cleared to run for the PC leadership

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If he regains the leadership, the race most likely becomes a three-way dead heat, with BOTH Family Compact parties now totally discredited.

NorthReport
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

What I don't get is...what is his RUSH to get right back into the leadership and fight THIS election as leader?  Why wouldn't he, given the situation, just wait this year out, clear his name(if he's sure he's innocent)and try again in four to eight years?  What's the damn hurry?

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Ontarians need to punish themselves for voting Liberal for the last 15 years. The best way to do this will be to inflict more punishment on themselves, so therefore they will vote PC even if Ed the Sock becomes leader.

The man-child article about Patrick Brown by Martin Regg Conn of the Tory Star was very puerile in and of itself. Yes, the Star does not want the PC Party to win. But when did they ever? People are going to read articles like this and say as they did back in the 1990s and at other times. "F*** YOU! I'm votin' PC/Reform/Harris/Ford/Harper etc." 

Indeed, the more haughtiness, petulance, and condescension by Liberals like Martin Regg Conn, the more votes are going to be driven in the direction of the PCs.

They never learn.

NorthReport

Alberta did it 

BC did it

Isn’t it time for Ontario to wake up and smell the roses and vote in Andrea Horwath as Premier

https://wawa-news.com/index.php/2018/01/23/wynne-liberals-making-it-more-difficult-for-ontario-families-in-2018-horwath/

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Another trope I am annoyed about in all this is the idea that people are votin' PC because of a reaction to #metoo. That is complete horseshit. #metoo is going to go on, no matter who wins in office. This is about basic human decency and should be impervious to politics.

The reaction is to Wynne. How she fucked up the hydro bills beyond all recognition. She is also getting blamed for the real estate boom in Toronto much as Bob Rae was blamed for the Free Trade deal. Life has gotten a lot more expensive and miserable for huge swaths of the greater GTA workforce.

People are seething in Ontario, much as they were before the election of Mike Harris. The PCs have kept their brand because Mike Harris "did what he said he was going to do". Even if he didn't.

To make things interesting Andrea Horwath should issue a paper entitled "What the NDP did wrong the last time it was in government in Ontario".

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Looks like Andrea Horwath has decided to ignore the elites just as John Horgan did during the recent BC election hopefully with the same election results

https://www.sudbury.com/local-news/horwath-hospital-overcrowding-continues-to-hurt-patients-846091://www.sudbury.com/local-news/horwath-hospital-overcrowding-continues-to-hurt-patients-846091

 

 

 

 

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Now that Rachel and John have settled down, perhaps both of them could direct some of their respective constructive energy towards helping Andrea become Premier of Ontario

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/notley-wins-the-wine-battle-today-while-the-pipeline-war-rages-on/article38079239/

Sean in Ottawa

progressive17 wrote:

...

The reaction is to Wynne. How she fucked up the hydro bills beyond all recognition. She is also getting blamed for the real estate boom in Toronto much as Bob Rae was blamed for the Free Trade deal. Life has gotten a lot more expensive and miserable for huge swaths of the greater GTA workforce.

....
To make things interesting Andrea Horwath should issue a paper entitled "What the NDP did wrong the last time it was in government in Ontario".

The sad thing here is that the Liberals took a bad situation with energy and made it worse. How was it a bad situation? Well that was the fault of the Conservatives and Earnie Eves' management of the file. Remember the Liberals were supposed to fix what the Conservatives broke. Now that they screwed it up people are forgetting that the Conservatives originally caused the problem. Go back and look at the Hydro debt and the nuclear plants fiasco caused by Harris and Eves.

On the second point, I would hate to see Horwath try to say what the NDP did wrong last time. It would play very badly. I do hope that she has a private assessment of it though. It would be terrible to tell the population things like: don't do a budget before a budget stateemnt making clear all the red ink that was there left by the previous government. It would also be bad to say in public that screwing over labour is going to make ennemies but not win over any new friends. It would be bad to acknowledge how much of Bob Rae's personal style of management and arrogance played a role, becuase it look like the NDP is deflecting. But the NDP were terrible communicators in government. The person that wrote the book on that (from the other side) was Bill Davis. Most since then have not known how to speak to the province other than as a partisan. Lots of the mistakes Rae made would be best not aired again. Many were unfair as well and fighting that or taking responsibility for that would be a negative.

It would be better to say that the NDP was governing in bad times and was not popular. Since then there have been stinkers from both the other parties. This is a different crew of people and lessons have been learned on all sides. Details would be a bad idea... In fact why bring it up at all?

NorthReport

Bang on Sean, bang on. Thanks for that!

NorthReport

NDP leader Andrea Horwath tries to break through chaotic Ontario political scene with tour

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/4044500/ontario-ndp-leader-andrea-horwath-tour/

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
It would be better to say that the NDP was governing in bad times and was not popular.

Wouldn't that be tantamount to saying "... so when it's all GOOD TIMES again, give us a thought!  We're ready to govern when the money tree is in bloom and the problems are solved!"

NorthReport

 

Horwath hopes that hope will seal the deal for the NDP in June

ANALYSIS: With the Liberals tacking left and the Tories absorbing most of the media attention, Andrea Horwath is banking on optimism to win the day

 

https://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/the-next-ontario/horwath-hopes-that-hope-will-seal-the-deal-for-the-ndp-in-june

NorthReport

Chantal Hébert: Political junkies lock eyes on Ontario — perhaps none so intently as Quebec Liberals

The tea leaves of the Ontario polls are bound to cause trepidation in the backrooms of Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard’s Liberal party, writes Chantal Hébert.

The numbers essentially highlight the resilience of the tide for change at Queen’s Park.

When Ipsos tested a fabricated or random-name Tory leader (called Jim Smith for the purposes of the exercise), a plurality of respondents turned to the NDP rather than join the Liberal fold.

http://www.metronews.ca/views/opinion/2018/02/21/chantal-h-bert-politica...

NorthReport

 

 

 

 

dated Feb 2 

Mulroney name has some cachet, but will that be enough to propel Caroline into leadership role?

Still, the fact is that in Canada there are more examples of political neophytes failing to parlay their pedigree into a shortcut to a major party’s leadership than the opposite.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/02/02/mulroney-name-has-some-ca...

NorthReport
mark_alfred

It's curious how different this Ipsos poll is from the recent Forum poll.  One of them is off, and I suspect it's the Forum poll.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

If you look at the size of the dots on the graph in the above link, the polls which seem to be outliers have a smaller sample size.

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mark_alfred

The Star article above was a good one.  Hopefully Horwath's tour helps boost the ONDP.

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Sean in Ottawa

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
It would be better to say that the NDP was governing in bad times and was not popular.

Wouldn't that be tantamount to saying "... so when it's all GOOD TIMES again, give us a thought!  We're ready to govern when the money tree is in bloom and the problems are solved!"

No not at all.

And those were not slightly bad times for Ontario -- triple wammy:

1) global recession

2) free trade adjustment losses

3) federal government cuts and downloading

The NDP does not need to shy away from bad times to say that judgment of performance was in that context.

Sean in Ottawa

mark_alfred wrote:

It's curious how different this Ipsos poll is from the recent Forum poll.  One of them is off, and I suspect it's the Forum poll.

If you average the last six polls after and before Brown resigned you see that the NDP is almost unchanged, The Liberals are down and the Conservatives are up. The NDP are unlikely to see a big increase unless the Liberals sink below them. If that were to happen it is possible that the NDP could pull enough Liberal support to give the PCs a race. Liberals will consider the NDP once they determine that their own cause is lost if stopping Conservatives is the priority.

The NDP is not far enough to benefit from this but within range if there is movement as voting day gets closer. Of course, the NDP also can bleed to the Liberals if they are seen as the best hope to stop the Conservatives. The trend favours the NDP slightly at the moment.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
It would be better to say that the NDP was governing in bad times and was not popular.

Wouldn't that be tantamount to saying "... so when it's all GOOD TIMES again, give us a thought!  We're ready to govern when the money tree is in bloom and the problems are solved!"

No not at all.

And those were not slightly bad times for Ontario -- triple wammy:

1) global recession

2) free trade adjustment losses

3) federal government cuts and downloading

The NDP does not need to shy away from bad times to say that judgment of performance was in that context.

Not sure why you're being so unsparing in your judgement of the ONDP government here-they were pretty much doing what you always say the NDP should do:  putting "balanced budgets" and the appeasement of Bay Street and Wall Street ahead of defending the people who elected them.   They were doing the same things Romanow(who I think is probably your model modern-day NDP premier) was doing in Saskatchewan, if with slightly less social brutality. 

Is that what you're mad at them about...that their cuts weren't harsh enough?

NorthReport

So Andrea Horwath was correct all along accusing the Ontario PCs of racing to the bottom with their circus of a leadership race. They must really have something on Brown as he has now resigned from everything. What an absolute moron. The big problem here is that Brown’s supporters are going to be angry, very angry and which candidate will benefit from that. Well good ole Doug Ford of course. I have to admit didn’t see this one coming.

NorthReport
Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:

And those were not slightly bad times for Ontario -- triple wammy:

1) global recession

2) free trade adjustment losses

3) federal government cuts and downloading

That's like having the sun in your eyes, except there's three suns!

If the election had gone Conservative that year, I doubt very much we'd be making excuses for the ONDP.  They weren't the first government to face challenges nor will they be the last.  Aren't governments literally supposed to respond to those challenges?  Or otherwise what I said was true, that maybe the ONDP should step in as soon as there aren't challenges.

Quote:
Is that what you're mad at them about...that their cuts weren't harsh enough?

The formatting (and also what I said and didn't say) leaves me unclear whether you're addressing me, or Sean in Ottawa. 

At any rate, I'm not "mad at" the ONDP.  I just can't see any merit in pretending that they faced monumental challenges that no other government has.  Trudeau promised PR and then bailed on it.  None of us, 20 years from now or one year from now, is likely to say that "circumstances beyond our control" forced him to reluctantly renege.

 

Sean in Ottawa

Ken Burch wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
It would be better to say that the NDP was governing in bad times and was not popular.

Wouldn't that be tantamount to saying "... so when it's all GOOD TIMES again, give us a thought!  We're ready to govern when the money tree is in bloom and the problems are solved!"

No not at all.

And those were not slightly bad times for Ontario -- triple wammy:

1) global recession

2) free trade adjustment losses

3) federal government cuts and downloading

The NDP does not need to shy away from bad times to say that judgment of performance was in that context.

Not sure why you're being so unsparing in your judgement of the ONDP government here-they were pretty much doing what you always say the NDP should do:  putting "balanced budgets" and the appeasement of Bay Street and Wall Street ahead of defending the people who elected them.   They were doing the same things Romanow(who I think is probably your model modern-day NDP premier) was doing in Saskatchewan, if with slightly less social brutality. 

Is that what you're mad at them about...that their cuts weren't harsh enough?

Did you completely misread my post? It almost reads like you are playing both ends against the middle. First you are clearly angry with them and somehow at me for saying what the context was -- then you claim I was mad at them.

I neither priased nor condemned them in that post. What I did was say what the context was for their government.

And to be clear, yes I think they are over-harshly condemned today given the context and how much history has happened since. And yes, I think they could have done better. You seem to be going at me like I am one way or another on them (and I can't figure out which you think I am). I am of the opinion that they came in during a bad time and did not do a great job but have been overly demonized -- in other words I am at neitehr extreme. I do like to point out to detractors the context that people seem to forget. And sorry I forgot one -- there is a fourth: the GST adjustment also was when he was in power.

 

Perhaps you could start with making clear if you think I am too harsh or too lenient on them as I can't figure out which one you are accusing me of.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
It would be better to say that the NDP was governing in bad times and was not popular.

Wouldn't that be tantamount to saying "... so when it's all GOOD TIMES again, give us a thought!  We're ready to govern when the money tree is in bloom and the problems are solved!"

No not at all.

And those were not slightly bad times for Ontario -- triple wammy:

1) global recession

2) free trade adjustment losses

3) federal government cuts and downloading

The NDP does not need to shy away from bad times to say that judgment of performance was in that context.

Not sure why you're being so unsparing in your judgement of the ONDP government here-they were pretty much doing what you always say the NDP should do:  putting "balanced budgets" and the appeasement of Bay Street and Wall Street ahead of defending the people who elected them.   They were doing the same things Romanow(who I think is probably your model modern-day NDP premier) was doing in Saskatchewan, if with slightly less social brutality. 

Is that what you're mad at them about...that their cuts weren't harsh enough?

Did you completely misread my post? It almost reads like you are playing both ends against the middle. First you are clearly angry with them and somehow at me for saying what the context was -- then you claim I was mad at them.

I neither priased nor condemned them in that post. What I did was say what the context was for their government.

And to be clear, yes I think they are over-harshly condemned today given the context and how much history has happened since. And yes, I think they could have done better. You seem to be going at me like I am one way or another on them (and I can't figure out which you think I am). I am of the opinion that they came in during a bad time and did not do a great job but have been overly demonized -- in other words I am at neitehr extreme. I do like to point out to detractors the context that people seem to forget. And sorry I forgot one -- there is a fourth: the GST adjustment also was when he was in power.

 

Perhaps you could start with making clear if you think I am too harsh or too lenient on them as I can't figure out which one you are accusing me of.

 

Sorry for the confusion, but my statement about being angry was meant to be directed at Magoo, not you.  My bad, sorry.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Did you completely misread my post? It almost reads like you are playing both ends against the middle. First you are clearly angry with them and somehow at me for saying what the context was -- then you claim I was mad at them.

This is suddenly even more confusing than it was before.

I'm not accusing you, or anyone else of being "mad at" the former ONDP government, nor am I "mad at" the former ONDP government.

I just don't think their mistakes were solely caused by unforseeable circumstance.  But I'm not accusing you of anything.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Magoo, he was responding to my comment there, which he thought was directed towards him.  

Pondering

The response to any reference to Bob Rae should be to dismiss it with "that was a generation ago, times change, this is 2018". Most people will respond to that. It's only party partisans that focus so much on the history of parties good or bad. The party has a general over all identify but beyond that a new leader is a new party or at least a major renovation. Just like the Liberals shed negative old history so too should the NDP. There has been generational change. 

Now that BC has shown the way a minority government can be overthown by a coalition and it will be accepted as democratic by the population. There is no need to vote for one party to stop the Conservatives. As long as they are held to a minority they can be overthrown. 

jerrym

The latest Forum poll shows the NDP ahead of the Liberals by 3%. Although the PCs have a large lead, enough of those supporting them in the poll also support carbon pricing that the loss of their support would likely make the difference between a majority and minority PC government, assuming the NDP and Liberals did not work out a deal to provide majority support to an alternative government. 

The significant level of PC support from those favouring carbon pricing suggests that they are so fed up with the Liberals that they project their desire for a change in government onto a the PC party whose leadership is still up in the air.

Once the party has a leader and it's clear to the general public how conservative its policies truly are with Brown and carbon pricing gone, some of that lead is likely to vanish. (I'm not supporting Brown or his actions in any way; rather, I'm saying he understood playing the nothing-too-fear-here-I'm-middle-of -the-road game would give them their greatest level of support).

If the NDP becomes perceived as the leading alternative to the PCs throough further polling, this is likely to further increase their level of support. 

Almost half (TOP2: 46%) of Ontarians supports having a price on carbon emissions, even if it makes some things more expensive. Just under a third (BTM2: 28%) say they would oppose a price on carbon if it made some things more expensive. 

About one-sixth (18%) say they would neither support nor oppose a carbon tax if it made some things more expensive, while about 1 in 10 say they do not know (8%).  ...

The Progressive Conservatives lead amongst decided and leaning voters by a comfortable margin, with almost half (46%) of Ontarians saying they would support the PCs if an election were held today.

One quarter (24%) say they would support the NDP and 2 in 10 (21%) say they would support the Liberals. 1 in 10 (7%) say they would support the Green Party, and few say they would support another party (2%).

“The Progressive Conservatives hold a considerable lead amongst decided and leaning voters,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “When probing the support of those leaning toward the PCs, however, we see many of these voters are highly engaged on the environment. They think Ontario should do more to limit climate change and they also support a price on carbon. This narrow band of leaning voters, while a smaller proportion of Progressive Conservative support overall, could make the difference between a slim minority and a majority for the party.” 

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/f371fcf3-5680-4de9-8146-4ad03ab12d46C...

 

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