2018 Ontario Polls

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SocialJustice101

I already expressed my support for the ONDP a few weeks ago, and I certainly don't encourage anyone to vote for the OLP in this provincial election.

josh

35 for the NDP.

NorthReport

Thanks josh I have already corrected it

josh

NorthReport wrote:

I blame the Liberals for attacking the progressive NDP in the dying days of the campaign when the Liberals had no chance whatsoever of winning thereby contributing to a Doug Ford majority. 

EKOS forecasts a PC majority 

PCs 39%

NDP 35%

Libs 19%

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-predicts-pc-majority/

You’d blame the Liberals no matter what.  It’s up to Liberal and undecided voters to choose how much they want to stop Ford.  If they do, there’s only one party to vote for.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Let's say the Liberals break 2:1 to the NDP over the Conservatives.  In a perfect world it would be nice for the 1/3 Conservative would stay with the Liberals and the progressives, but that isn't reality.  The Liberal collapse is going to help both sides, even if helps the NDP more.

On the other side the Liberal policy track record is probably 2/3 Conservative, 1/3 NDP.  So people should take a silver lining.  As Dave Barrett used to always say, voters should be provided a stark choice 'us or them' - particularly in a FPTP system.  Getting rid of a party that takes more progressive supporters than conservative yet is more conservative than progressive is a good thing.

SocialJustice101

Pogo wrote:
On the other side the Liberal policy track record is probably 2/3 Conservative, 1/3 NDP. 

But how would you characterize track record of provincial NDP governments?

SocialJustice101

That EKOS poll has very strange demographics breakdown, where Ford leads with the 18-34 group and the self-identified "poor", while the NDP leads with the "upper class".   This gives me a Deja-Vu of the Calgary election.   IVR polls were suggesting that 18-34 would suddenly vote right-wing.  Did not happen.  That was an effect of  IVR raw data weighting.

Pogo Pogo's picture

49:51  which is a lot better than 67:33  (conservative:progressive).  Basically when there are two parties they chase the middle voter while hoping to keep their outer extremes.  FPTP system of course.  All bets are off if you bring in another system.

This assumes only one metric (left/right) where there are always a few that complicate the decision.

SocialJustice101

Pogo, was the Rae government a lot better than McGuinty/Wynne?   I don't think so.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Up until this EKOS poll tonite I thought the NDP still had a chance 

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_6_2018c.pdf

jerrym

I don't know who is going to win but pollsters, like generals preparing war plans, plan their information gathering based on previous campaigns that sometimes aren't in synch with the current reality. 

 

JeffWells

NorthReport wrote:

Up until this EKOS poll tonite I thought the NDP still had a chance

I think the NDP still has a chance, but I think it's an outside chance. It always was.

Well, two weeks ago was looking better. But then "BUCK A BEER - DOUG'S BRINGING IT BACK!" We laughed, but that's when Conservative numbers began to rebound. If he wins, the promise of cheap beer won it for him. Which is the most depressing realization as I've had in years.

NorthReport

That and buying beer at the corner store it’s often the little things that get you

SocialJustice101

Andrea Horwath couldn't promise people buck-a-beer?   Laugh all you want, but she should have done it.

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Up until this EKOS poll tonite I thought the NDP still had a chance 

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_6_2018c.pdf

Were you not recently claiming all polls are trash?

These are polls, not votes. I don't believe 18-34 year olds are going for Ford. He is  likely doing poorly with women as well.

Frank Graves at Ekos has said he is Liberal but unbiased. The following is from Eric Grenier.

Polls suggest that the PCs are more likely to benefit from the turnout than the New Democrats. A poll by Léger has found that the PCs hold a six-point edge among voters 55 and older, a cohort that traditionally votes in large numbers. The same poll found the NDP ahead by four points among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, a group that has low turnout rates.

Both Pollara and Abacus Data found the PCs leading among votes already cast, with the PCs ahead by seven and four points, respectively, among Ontarians who voted in the advance polls. Those are ballots already in the system and counted, rather than hypothetical future votes that have yet to be cast.

But in the last provincial election in 2014, pollsters experimented with turnout models in an effort to avoid a repeat of the polling miss in British Columbia the previous year. And in every single case, the likely voter models did worse than a standard weighting to the general population.

Turnout was supposed to benefit the Ontario PCs in 2014 and give Tim Hudak a chance of winning. Instead, the PCs under-performed their polls and the Liberals won a majority government.

Polls are based on the past. 55+ people who vote are already turning out in large numbers and do a lot of advance voting. If turn-out increases how much of that is old people? Ford is not traditional PC. The NDP is 4 ahead with the 18-34 group. That sounds low to me. What happened to the people between 34 and 55?

The NDP has upset the applecart in Alberta and BC. I admit the polls are shaking my confidence as I thought by now they would be breaking for Horwath.

But if, based on past turnout, they are under-estimating youth turnout and overestimating 55+ turnout the results could be very different. 55+, especially women, could be discouraged based on the scandals swirling around Doug Ford. Youth could be galvanized by Ford's regressiveness and extreme right wing views.

Could Ontarians really choose Trump north? I must admit I didn't believe the states would do it but surely not Ontario.

SocialJustice101

Frank Graves used to be a Liberal during Paul Martin's era.   I saw him talk on TVO in January.   He sounded reliably conservative through and through. 

SocialJustice101

Pondering, the question is what *percentage* of Ontarians will vote for Ford?   He only needs around 37%, which is significantly less than in the US system.

Pondering

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Pondering, the question is what *percentage* of Ontarians will vote for Ford?   He only needs around 37%, which is significantly less than in the US system.

Yes but the percentage depends on the turnout. He is less likely to get 37% if PC voters don't turnout as they have in the past and if NDP voters show up in larger numbers than expected.

Both are very possible. Only a few percent fewer than usual could hurt Ford a lot. At least some women must be having second thoughts hearing that he hasn't given Renata a dime and she has had to morgage her home to raise her children. The business of transferring shares a zero value stinks to high heaven.

At least some people who think politicians are all the same, especially younger people, will surely see a difference between Ford and Horgan. If anything  could get them out to vote I should think this is it.

SocialJustice101

I'd like to believe that most young people in Ontario know who John Horgan is.  But, as a Millennial myself, I doubt it.

Pondering

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I'd like to believe that most young people in Ontario know who John Horgan is.  But, as a Millennial myself, I doubt it.

Yeah, but Horgan is in BC, Ford is in Ontario.

Something else occurred to me. Presumably some Liberal votes went to the PCs and some to the NDP.

Liberal voters that have been breaking PC could react strongly to the latest news. They could stay home.

Pogo Pogo's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Pogo, was the Rae government a lot better than McGuinty/Wynne?   I don't think so.

I am assuming you were in Ontario for the Rae Government.  I was there for the first 3-4 months before returning to BC. I remember the first big decision of the Government was to cancel the Opera House - I am sure that would have been gone the other way if Peterson had been re-elected.

The reason I left was that the economy was tanking big time. Things were tough all around.  Not saying that the NDP made right choices, but I am pretty darn sure that if a business party like the Liberals were in power that it would have been a lot tougher ("now is not the time to increase the minimum wage" etc...)

Sean in Ottawa

Pogo wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Pogo, was the Rae government a lot better than McGuinty/Wynne?   I don't think so.

I am assuming you were in Ontario for the Rae Government.  I was there for the first 3-4 months before returning to BC. I remember the first big decision of the Government was to cancel the Opera House - I am sure that would have been gone the other way if Peterson had been re-elected.

The reason I left was that the economy was tanking big time. Things were tough all around.  Not saying that the NDP made right choices, but I am pretty darn sure that if a business party like the Liberals were in power that it would have been a lot tougher ("now is not the time to increase the minimum wage" etc...)

Not comparable anyway. Wynne governed in fairly good times -- NDP governed during:

1) Free trade adjustment shutting thousands of businesses in Ontario including whole industries

2) Federal downloading

3) global recession

4) GST brought in during a period of consumer low confidence

5) Starting from a Liberal dishonest budget that hid a large deficit

6) When the government had lost two expensive court cases (one Indigenous re rights and the other pay equality) leaving the finances worse off than even the above books ought to have shown

7) when the right wing decided to tar the NDP -- within a month of taking office -- before a budget -- the "taxed off a Bob Rae" billboards went up all over Toronto so that people fed up with the GST (federal) would blame the provincial NDP government. Conservatives (as Trump says) love the stupid.

Did I miss anything???

NorthReport
bekayne
josh

39 seems to be the Cons magic number.

josh

Pondering wrote:

7

NorthReport wrote:

Up until this EKOS poll tonite I thought the NDP still had a chance 

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_6_2018c.pdf

Were you not recently claiming all polls are trash?

These are polls, not votes. I don't believe 18-34 year olds are going for Ford. He is  likely doing poorly with women as well.

Frank Graves at Ekos has said he is Liberal but unbiased. The following is from Eric Grenier.

Polls suggest that the PCs are more likely to benefit from the turnout than the New Democrats. A poll by Léger has found that the PCs hold a six-point edge among voters 55 and older, a cohort that traditionally votes in large numbers. The same poll found the NDP ahead by four points among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, a group that has low turnout rates.

Both Pollara and Abacus Data found the PCs leading among votes already cast, with the PCs ahead by seven and four points, respectively, among Ontarians who voted in the advance polls. Those are ballots already in the system and counted, rather than hypothetical future votes that have yet to be cast.

But in the last provincial election in 2014, pollsters experimented with turnout models in an effort to avoid a repeat of the polling miss in British Columbia the previous year. And in every single case, the likely voter models did worse than a standard weighting to the general population.

Turnout was supposed to benefit the Ontario PCs in 2014 and give Tim Hudak a chance of winning. Instead, the PCs under-performed their polls and the Liberals won a majority government.

Polls are based on the past. 55+ people who vote are already turning out in large numbers and do a lot of advance voting. If turn-out increases how much of that is old people? Ford is not traditional PC. The NDP is 4 ahead with the 18-34 group. That sounds low to me. What happened to the people between 34 and 55?

The NDP has upset the applecart in Alberta and BC. I admit the polls are shaking my confidence as I thought by now they would be breaking for Horwath.

But if, based on past turnout, they are under-estimating youth turnout and overestimating 55+ turnout the results could be very different. 55+, especially women, could be discouraged based on the scandals swirling around Doug Ford. Youth could be galvanized by Ford's regressiveness and extreme right wing views.

Could Ontarians really choose Trump north? I must admit I didn't believe the states would do it but surely not Ontario.

Mike Harris wasn’t exactly Tommy Douglas.  And Toronto elected Ford’s brother.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Except for downtown Toronto, Ontario is a very conservative place.

gadar

Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Up until this EKOS poll tonite I thought the NDP still had a chance 

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_6_2018c.pdf

Were you not recently claiming all polls are trash?

They are only trash when they show Liberals in the lead. You should know that by now.

bekayne

So the pollsters who were in the field the latest were the most accurate. Who could have predicted that?

josh

And IVR did better than online.

NorthReport

 

So Forum was the most accurate pollster. Who knew!

http://poll.forumresearch.com/m/post/2852/ontario-2018-results

robbie_dee

FYI I just got phone polled by Mainstreet whether I would support a Liberal-Green Party coalition so that both parties could have official party status.

SocialJustice101

Forum had the NDP at 47% a couple of weeks before the election.   Their most recent numbers could be hoarding.   They are very similar to EKOS and Mainstreet.   Are we supposed to be believe that the NDP actually dropped by 14% in the last 2 weeks?

NorthReport
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Forum had the NDP at 47% a couple of weeks before the election.   Their most recent numbers could be hoarding.   They are very similar to EKOS and Mainstreet.   Are we supposed to be believe that the NDP actually dropped by 14% in the last 2 weeks?

Forum's results were the classic "rogue poll" that seems to happen durning EVERY election campaign anywhere.

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