2018 Ontario Polls

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Sean in Ottawa

cco wrote:
Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think the Liberals would bnever back Ford but a coalition with the NDP would be fragile and politically problematic.

Serious question: Why do you think the Liberals would never back Ford? Is that more credible than them never voting to prop up Harper (or saying they'd be Harper's worst nightmare and then crossing the floor before the House is even convened, say)?

The Liberals in Ontario doubled down on the direction taken by Wynne. The conservatives doubled down on a move to the right. Under normal conditions those parties are much closer than they are today. the Liberals are very unlikely to dump a leader and do a 180 to Ford -- I think they could have with Elliott.  I think Ford is far too extreme for the Liebrals to work with - without doing lasting damage to themselves. All three parties are probably terrified tonight even though they will not all suffer it is unclear which ones will:

The NDP risks a stampede to Liberals by swing voters and NDP switchers. I think that is almost 1/4 of the total vote so that is a make or break number.

The Liberals risk, if they fall below the NDP having that stampede go to the NDP. This is especially true since they are a tired government and even some Liberals may be happy to see the party go into opposition. If they calculate wrong this could be an existensial decision - at least for a generation.

The Conservatives need to fear that while exciting their base Ford could get a victory or he could instead drive away enough of the swing voters that if the gravitate to either hte Liberals of NDP, the Conservatives could effectively defeat themselves -- again.

Yes, Ford will shake things up. But without knowing how each party will behave, it would be wrong to count out any of the three parties or make presumptions about which will take the advantage. This is what polarization looks like.

Sean in Ottawa

Michael Moriarity wrote:

I think it is extremely unlikely that a nearly even split between the Libs and NDP will continue from now to the election. At some point one of them will pull ahead consistently for a couple of weeks, then there will be a stampede in that direction. History says it will be the Liberals, but you never know, it could be the NDP. After all, it's pretty hard to demonize Horwath as extreme left.

Exactly. And even Liberals might want a spell in opposition. They know they are tired. If there is a bias that Wynne is unelectable then this could start without a prior poll movement. If the NDP is considered unelectable then that could happen in reverse. I think if one of the two is considered unelectable it will be the Liberals (who would later rue the day they let Wynne lead them into this election).

I think a new Liberal leader would have had a fair chance at avoiding a red bloodbath. However, a bloodbath might be what it takes to unite the Liberal and NDP voters to defeat Ford.

There is lots to see here and I would challenge anyone who thinks that this is a predictable result.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Being a "change" election there is a very good chance people will move to the NDP to stop the Conservatives. It isn't that Ontario has suddenly become more Conservative. The Liberals are just carrying way too much stink. I wonder if Trudeau will campaign with Wynne.

I suspect Trudeau will hear from at least some advisers that he is damaged enough that being with Wynne is not a good idea. Also a victory for Horwath is better for Trudeau. (I doubt I need to explain the alternation principle -- but there are many political scientists who believe that a defeat provincially frees up activists to win federally. and concentrates donations.) Also even if Wynne won she is going to remain and stink up the Liberal brand in Ontario. A loss and a new leader in opposition is likely much better for Trudeau. On policy, Horwath is unlikely to give Trudeau much grief. I doubt that she woudl be able to lend all that much to the Federal NDP either at this point. Besides the federal Liberals are more worried about the Conservatives. Also Trudeau should probably stay out of sight and reconnect when the stink of the India trip dies down (hopefully after some trade victories).

I do not think Wynne really will want Trudeau either that much.

Jagmeet Singh is probably the more likely to enter the fray but I am not sure how valuable that would be.

Sean in Ottawa

Another point: there are going to be debates. In that debate, chances are, you will have Ford being aggressive against two female leaders. It will be an intensely ugly sight to see. I suspect the PC base will love it but everyone else will be disgusted. I predict, like David from Alberta, that history is repeating. I also think the turning point in the Alberta election was an exchange between Prentice and Notley that my be milder than what could occur with Ford.

Question is -- is Ford smart enough to know this and avoid it?

Second quesiton -- which leader -- Horwath or Wynne is going to handle it better?

These two questions may decide the election right there.

And you heard this  from Ottawa first....

NorthReport
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dp

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Debater

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Being a "change" election there is a very good chance people will move to the NDP to stop the Conservatives. It isn't that Ontario has suddenly become more Conservative. The Liberals are just carrying way too much stink. I wonder if Trudeau will campaign with Wynne.

I suspect Trudeau will hear from at least some advisers that he is damaged enough that being with Wynne is not a good idea. Also a victory for Horwath is better for Trudeau. (I doubt I need to explain the alternation principle -- but there are many political scientists who believe that a defeat provincially frees up activists to win federally. and concentrates donations.) Also even if Wynne won she is going to remain and stink up the Liberal brand in Ontario. A loss and a new leader in opposition is likely much better for Trudeau. On policy, Horwath is unlikely to give Trudeau much grief. I doubt that she woudl be able to lend all that much to the Federal NDP either at this point. Besides the federal Liberals are more worried about the Conservatives. Also Trudeau should probably stay out of sight and reconnect when the stink of the India trip dies down (hopefully after some trade victories).

I do not think Wynne really will want Trudeau either that much.

Jagmeet Singh is probably the more likely to enter the fray but I am not sure how valuable that would be.

Wynne is much more damaged than Trudeau.

Trudeau has lost some of his popularity, but he still has decent numbers.  It's Wynne who has the abysmal numbers.

So it's probably still to Wynne's advantage to have Trudeau campaign for her.

I agree with you that the unpopularity of the Wynne Liberals in Ontario is probably dragging down the Federal Liberals.  If Wynne loses the next election, it could help the Federal Liberals in Ontario in 2019.

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Why people like Donald Trump and Doug Ford get elected. It’s called inequality

 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/wanganui-chronicle/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503422&objectid=11995324

Ciabatta2

Wynne needs Trudeau.  The question is will he show up for her the way she did for him?

I suspect yes because the optics of him taking a pass are too poor.

NorthReport

Nobody knows how damaged Trudeau is at this point. Canadians are however beginning to wake up to the fact that he is not all that he was cracked to be.

https://www.straight.com/news/1028986/martyn-brown-losing-it-trudeau-bri...

 

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Statement on greenhouse gas emissions associated with the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion

http://blogs.ubc.ca/maribo/2016/08/17/statement-on-greenhouse-gas-emissi...

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Arctic temps spike over 30 degrees in the midst of winter

Extreme heat pushes into the Arctic

 

 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/arctic-temperatures-spik...

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Sean in Ottawa

I do not think Trudeua would be much of a help to Wynne. I think he is unlikely to move any votes towards her and could move a few against her. That does not mean he is less popular. Not everyone who says they would vote Liebral right now is enthusiastic. My guess is those who are woudl not be the ones Wynne would lose to the Conservatives.

Sure Trudeau might go through minimal motions in order to not make it a story that he is not helping but he will not help her if he dives in. The fact that 10% more would vote Liberal in a federal election does not make him an asset with the people that will matter in this campaign.

Also Trudeau is not beyond hope and things could get better for him but Wynne being attached to him would not be helpful.

As I said as well -- the Federal Liberals would be helped by Wynne going away. It is not that they do not like each other. They are just not presently able to help each other.

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

BTW...any possibility the OLP will panic and dump Wynne before the election? If her presence keeps the party at parity with or below the ONDP, having her stay on and fight the election does them little good.

Debater

I think it's too late for that.

The time to replace Wynne was last year.

They have to go with what they have.

NorthReport

You never ever want to count out the right-wing rich people's political parties. These two political parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives, basically represent the one percenters, and if you wanted to be brutually honest, their real mission has always been to keep the rich, rich, and the poor, poor. Every once in a while they will throw a bone to the working person but even this is often just another ploy to deceive and rasise false hopes.  The words Doug Ford, new PC Leader, were barely being spoken when these representatives the rich people's allies, like the Toronto Star, were spewing out their usual the Liberals can do no wrong nonsense. So, to sum up, never, ever count out the rich people's political parties in any election, anytime.  As Chretien so honestly stated, the Liberal Red Book is for the election campaigning only. Once the election is over, so is the Liberal Red Book, as it gets thrown in the trash the moment the election results are announced.

NorthReport

PCs would win next Ontario election despite voters’ dislike of Doug Ford, poll finds

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/12/pcs-would-win-next-on...

quizzical
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The latest poll by a credible pollster came out on March 14 and shows a much tighter race and  the NDP with 25% support

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls

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So what bold and exciting new ideas are the ONDP proposing in the Housing area which will help address the massive growing inequality amongst the citizens of Ontario

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/ontario-housing-costs-kathleen-wynne-inclusionary-zoning-1.4499775

 

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Ontario election agenda: What you need to know for March 19

The New Democrats have unveiled the election priorities that will form the core of their platform — including free prescriptions and dental care for all Ontarians

https://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/the-next-ontario/ontario-electio...

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Pondering

The Ontario NDP needs to figure out why it is doing so abysmally. This election was (is) a golden opportunity that comes rarely. The Liberals may have decided in advance they would lose this election no matter what. They let Wynne take them through it then start the hunt for a new leader they can groom. No party can stay in power endlessly and the Liberals were well overdue for a time-out. If it were not this election it would be the next. They probably couldn't have gotten a majority. They will be delighted to see Doug Ford at the helm of Ontario to teach Ontarians a lesson and send them back to the Liberals for a few more terms. 

The NDP is losing out because they have not convinced Ontarians that they can run the province better than the Conservatives and Liberals. 

Ciabatta2

Nope.  Elections aren't about convincing the electorate you can run the province.  Not by any means.  Look at the last federal election.  Look at this one.

The NDP is losing because there is no way they can propose policies like this and be taken seriously.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/27/ontario-budget-to-fun...

 

NorthReport

What nonsense.

 

The reality is no matter where it runs in any election most if not all of the mainstream media opposes the NDP and these journalists do their dirty work for the Liberals day in day out twenty-four seven 365 days a year.

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Nope.  Elections aren't about convincing the electorate you can run the province.  Not by any means.  Look at the last federal election.  Look at this one.

The NDP is losing because there is no way they can propose policies like this and be taken seriously.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/27/ontario-budget-to-fun...

 

There is no way they can be taken seriously if they don't. Maybe it is better to not be taken seriosuly proposing essential policies than being afraid to do anything other than taking the PST off of hydro.

 

NorthReport

 - from Canada's most trusted pollster

Scheer’s delight? If an election were held tomorrow, CPC could have a shot at majority government

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-march2018/

NorthReport

And if you think this does not apply to mainstream media political coverage of politics, think again.

How the New York Times Shrugged at a Falsehood

Since when did ‘true enough’ become the standard for newspapers-of-record?

https://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2018/03/27/How-Times-Shrugged-Falsehood/

Ciabatta2

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Nope.  Elections aren't about convincing the electorate you can run the province.  Not by any means.  Look at the last federal election.  Look at this one.

The NDP is losing because there is no way they can propose policies like this and be taken seriously.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/27/ontario-budget-to-fun...

 

There is no way they can be taken seriously if they don't. Maybe it is better to not be taken seriosuly proposing essential policies than being afraid to do anything other than taking the PST off of hydro.

Well, that's what I was getting at.  When they go big they get pilloried.  When they go small they get pilloried.  When they get a good idea, it gets implemented by someone else. You have to almost feel bad for them.

And then you see this:

https://twitter.com/AndreaHorwath/status/978679057255751680

and you want to scream: WHO IS ADVISING HER?  SUPPORT THE IDEA AND PUSH THE LIBERALS TO ACTUALLY HOLD A VOTE ON THEIR BUDGET!  PUSH THEM!  BE THE SAVIOUR.  BE THE CHANGE.

But nope.  Horwath took the NDP from 10 seats to 21 and now she take them back to 10 again.

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Nope.  Elections aren't about convincing the electorate you can run the province.  Not by any means.  Look at the last federal election.  Look at this one.

The NDP is losing because there is no way they can propose policies like this and be taken seriously.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/27/ontario-budget-to-fun...

 

There is no way they can be taken seriously if they don't. Maybe it is better to not be taken seriosuly proposing essential policies than being afraid to do anything other than taking the PST off of hydro.

Well, that's what I was getting at.  When they go big they get pilloried.  When they go small they get pilloried.  When they get a good idea, it gets implemented by someone else. You have to almost feel bad for them.

And then you see this:

https://twitter.com/AndreaHorwath/status/978679057255751680

and you want to scream: WHO IS ADVISING HER?  SUPPORT THE IDEA AND PUSH THE LIBERALS TO ACTUALLY HOLD A VOTE ON THEIR BUDGET!  PUSH THEM!  BE THE SAVIOUR.  BE THE CHANGE.

But nope.  Horwath took the NDP from 10 seats to 21 and now she take them back to 10 again.

Makes you think the politicians are not really sincere including the NDP.

As a potential supporter for the NDP I expect the NDP to advocate for policies like this not to try to use them for something else.

Ciabatta2

I don't doubt they're sincere, I just don't get the positioning. The messages, the value signalling, the strategery is just all off off off.  Don't get after the Liberals for this proposal - get on them to do it NOW.  Push them into the corner to back it up with immediate action.

That is worth more than another "Do you trust them" type message.  Because Canadians have long shown that they really don't trust the Liberals but they are always willing to give them a shot to do somethign big.

Ciabatta2

Don't bash them.  Give them a pat on the back and say: prove this isn't an election stunt, put it in the house and we'll vote for it - do it now.

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Don't bash them.  Give them a pat on the back and say: prove this isn't an election stunt, put it in the house and we'll vote for it - do it now.

I completely agree.

Never oppose what you agree with or you will just confuse people and have them assume that you believe in nothing.

Sean in Ottawa

Actually I think the NDP is probably screwed in the province. To see why try calling them. Then try calling the other parties. Even the Greens are answering the phone. The NDP have an IVR in place that screens out anyone who cannot spell a specific person they are calling for. Think of what message that is sending. They only want to talk to people they know already. Hello? That's not how a political party that wants to govern works in the weeks before an election campaign. Even if you are media -- it is the general mailbox for you.

Better yet the IVR offers you to go to spell the name in the "company directory." WTF. The NDP is a company? Cannot afford a custom option to not say that???

When done -- try calling the leader's office at Queen's park. The IVR there helpfully directs you to a voice mail as well except this voice mail is non functional and will imediately stop you to say that it did not get your response - while you are trying to talk to it. We are talking like 5 seconds in - it interupts. Maybe it is full or otherwise occupied.

Yes the NDP disease, gross incompetence at the management level, rears its head right before a campaign.

The Liberals are tacking to the left of the NDP. They do not care. Wynne is screwed and they know they will be defeated. This is a clever way of daring the NDP to out left the Liberals who will pile on so much debt that a red rose would blush. The other NDP option would be to actually come out and cost these proposals by talking direct on taxes in a way the Liberals, who have no intentions of governing or keeping any of these promises, will not. But if you want to call the NDP and let them know that it is better to engage the tax issue than try to outspend without a plan like the Liberals, then you will find out just how unimportant your call really is to the NDP.

Let's face it the campaign is over. The NDP ended it when they set their office up for failure. Now we go through the motions.

Or if you have any contacts in the Ontario NDP send them an alarm clock and a calendar before it is too late.

Oh and did I mention? You can get a real answer fr0m the Ontario Green party just by calling the number on their website.

Here's a friggen news flash: I won't vote for a party that I cannot reach. Not anymore.

All this bullshit about polls is just that. Campaigns are won with the basics -- talking to people.

Tell that to the NDP -- if you can!

I think I need to call the Grerens again -- for a real conversation this time.

Also friggin newsflash: organizations that want to have private conversations with people pissed at them can answer their phone or watch it happen in public. Yes -- that simple.

Ciabatta2

Are you sure about that Sean?

I called them yesterday to complain about the Horwath response and got a live person, not even an recorded welcome message - direct to person.

I called the 1866 number.

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Are you sure about that Sean?

I called them yesterday to complain about the Horwath response and got a live person, not even an recorded welcome message - direct to person.

I called the 1866 number.

Yes -- right off the website and the IVR said it was the ONDP.

It is possible that they sometimes answer live but they did not and I called three times this morning.

Still the management of the IVR remains a problem -- both in the fact  that there are no departmental options just name dialling and second the minor issue of calling it a company. The company message was partly customized identifying it as the ONDP.

Ciabatta2

Weird. Inspired by your post I tried calling the 1866 from the ONDP and got someone again today without any intermediary (I promptly hung up like a weirdo) , but yeah they need to fix that if when they're busy you get punted to a call board with no usable options.

I have to say, the guy that picked up yesterday (Dan? Dave? Ted?) was very patient about me ragging them.  And had a few intelligent things to say too.  Those people are saints.  I remember performing that function in my previous existence and man I can't believe I've become the person on the other end of the line LOLOL!  Age changes you I guess

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Weird. Inspired by your post I tried calling the 1866 from the ONDP and got someone again today without any intermediary (I promptly hung up like a weirdo) , but yeah they need to fix that if when they're busy you get punted to a call board with no usable options.

I have to say, the guy that picked up yesterday (Dan? Dave? Ted?) was very patient about me ragging them.  And had a few intelligent things to say too.  Those people are saints.  I remember performing that function in my previous existence and man I can't believe I've become the person on the other end of the line LOLOL!  Age changes you I guess

Ok - I just tried again. I did get a live person now. He says he will look into the issue of the company wording and the lack of call management for anyone who did not know a person to direct the call to. Let us hope that they resolve this.

The rest of the conversation was encouraging.

Sean in Ottawa

Ontario polls will underestimate the NDP and here is why I think this is true:

There are two negative votes going on right now:

1) opposition to Ford

2) Opposition to the Liberal government.

I think that the undecided reflects people who are mostly decided about one of those seeking an option to best deliver that.

Opposition to Ford is going to land Liberal or NDP. Opposition to the government is going to land PC or NDP.

If they are split evenly then the undecided should break 50% to the NDP and 25% to the Liberals and 25% to Ford.

Now if you consider other issues like the fact that Horwath is more popular and experienced as a leader, Wynne a person who reminds people of policies they dislike (leader of a government) and Ford a guy capable of saying dumb things (like selling CBC to save Ontario money), you might think she could get more than 50% of each group of undecided to total more than 50% in total.

If I am correct this puts the election much closer between the NDP and the Conservatives than people think.

Now let's look at the dynamic of a debate. It will be Ford a boorish aggressive jerk across from two women. And there you have set up the kind of turning point dynamic that blew the election for the Premier of Alberta last time electing Notley.

The undecided voters dynamic favours the NDP somewhat and the election dynamic also does. Any flash of the Conservatives to the right  helps the NDP and the fact that the Liberals are claiming to be as left as the NDP is also an advantage.

Like I said elsewhere, the Liberals are not trying to win. I think they are going left in an attempt to bait the NDP to go more left and flame out equally to them giving the centre to Ford. If the NDP engages on taxation with a costed platform that promotes progressive things then the NDP will call this bluff and the Liberals will show how reasonable the NDP plan is and how radical the Conservative one is as they drive off the cliff.

If the NDP do a good campaign they may be looking at the perfect storm in their favour, especially if people see in Horwath the leader they prefer -- and I think that is possible.

The party has to manage things like how its office manages really well which is why I went after them today so quickly. Once the campaign starts there will not be time for corrections.

 

NorthReport

It’s neck and neck between the NDP and the Liberals according to these stats even with all the Liberal-supporting pollsters thrown into the mix

 

PCs 42.8% 

Libs 26.5%

NDP 23%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls

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