2018 Ontario Polls

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

How soon 'til the actual election campaign starts?  

Cody87

Ken Burch wrote:

How soon 'til the actual election campaign starts?  

It formally starts 28 days before the election (which is June 7th).

NorthReport

Latest poll out yesterday shows NDP within 3% of Liberals.

Not too shabby for the NDP! 

Go Andrea Go

PCs 36%

Libs 29%

NDP 26%

NorthReport

A double-double of cynicism in Ontario

Wynne is allowing smart ideas to be condemned as profligate spending. Ford counters with next to nothing. What’s a voter to do?

 

It’s hard to make positive change in a cynical age—that’s Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s biggest problem. And it’s one Kathleen Wynne and Doug Ford add to everyday, adding daily doses of head-shaking negativity to a province unsure where its future lies.

This week Premier Kathleen Wynne treated Ontarians to what surely is the greatest own-score in Canadian politics in a long time. Apparently having 80 per cent of Ontarians itching to give her the heave-ho in a few weeks wasn’t enough. In a bid to reach unanimity, Wynne thought it wise to table a budget bereft of any universality—except in the mocking of its insincerity.

After 15 years in government, it suddenly dawned on the Premier just 72 days before an election that a lot of Ontarians are struggling with the cost of everyday life—costs the Wynne Liberals have contributed to or ignored.

 

http://www.macleans.ca/opinion/a-double-double-of-cynicism-in-ontario/

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Latest poll out yesterday shows NDP within 3% of Liberals.

Not too shabby for the NDP! 

Go Andrea Go

PCs 36%

Libs 29%

NDP 26%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/6db584c0-cdaf-446b-b79a-6c7d54cb6c4bOntario%20budget.pdf

That would yield a Conservative minority.

NorthReport

NDP leader scheduled to attend nomination meeting

 

http://www.theobserver.ca/2018/03/29/ndp-leader-scheduled-to-attend-nomi...

jerrym

NorthReport wrote:

Latest poll out yesterday shows NDP within 3% of Liberals.

Not too shabby for the NDP! 

Go Andrea Go

PCs 36%

Libs 29%

NDP 26%

The same poll projects the following seat count: 

If an election were held today, the PCs would win a minority government of 57 seats. The Liberals would serve as opposition with 36 seats and the NDP would win 31. 

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/6db584c0-cdaf-446b-b79a-6c7d54cb6c4bO...

In other words, even with this kind of result there is a possibility that the NDP and Liberals working together could block a  PC government from occurring. 

 

Ciabatta2

Those seat count estimations are always way off.  The PCs and Liberals will have more than that.  The child care plan will wipe the NDP out in Toronto.  And without widespread gains in Toronto, there aren't 30 seats for the NDP to realistically win.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Why does Toronto keep voting Liberal provincially, when they've had years of Liberal provincial governments that havent done much of anything to help that city-haven't even done something truly useful, like, say breaking up the mega-government the PC's put in place in the Eighties just to keep the actual residents of the city from being able to elect their OWN mayor-forcing them to live at the mercy of the right-wing suburbs instead.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

josh wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Latest poll out yesterday shows NDP within 3% of Liberals.

Not too shabby for the NDP! 

Go Andrea Go

PCs 36%

Libs 29%

NDP 26%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/6db584c0-cdaf-446b-b79a-6c7d54cb6c4bOntario%20budget.pdf

That would yield a Conservative minority.

Or a Liberal-NDP coalition

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Or a Liberal-PC coalition, or a (hehehe) NDP-PC coalition.

I think the bigger question would be why the NDP takes bronze against the awesomeness of a pound of white pizza dough and the "Jim Belushi" brother of the late Mayor of Toronto.

What if Horwath were to publicly try meth?  Ford Nation likes that shit.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Or a Liberal-PC coalition, or a (hehehe) NDP-PC coalition.

I think the bigger question would be why the NDP takes bronze against the awesomeness of a pound of white pizza dough and the "Jim Belushi" brother of the late Mayor of Toronto.

What if Horwath were to publicly try meth?  Ford Nation likes that shit.

What if Wynne were to knock an MPP off her feet while charging around the chamber for no reason?

NorthReport

Bingo!

Talk about cherry-picking.

progressive17 wrote:

josh wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Latest poll out yesterday shows NDP within 3% of Liberals.

Not too shabby for the NDP! 

Go Andrea Go

PCs 36%

Libs 29%

NDP 26%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/6db584c0-cdaf-446b-b79a-6c7d54cb6c4bOntario%20budget.pdf

That would yield a Conservative minority.

Or a Liberal-NDP coalition

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Latest poll out yesterday shows NDP within 3% of Liberals. 

Not too shabby for the NDP! 

Go Andrea Go

PCs 36%

Libs 29%

NDP 26%

The last Forum poll had the NDP 4% ahead of the Liberals. It's the first time the NDP has been within 10% of the leading PCs since Dec 2015. I don't see why you wouldn't trumpet that fact.

bekayne

To put the new Forum poll in context, The last time the PC's were this low was Dec 2015 (34%). The last time they had a lead of less than 13% was July 2016.

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

It sure looks like the PCs are way out front in a league by themselves and then there is the rest of the pack

https://mobile.twitter.com/kinsellawarren/status/981852597442105344?s=12

NorthReport
robbie_dee

DELETED

NorthReport
NorthReport
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I just hope there's an actual continuing upward trend for the ONDP in this campaign-so we don't have threads where there are endless overexcited posts about polls showing the party just more-or-less holding its ground again.  I think in the next couple of weeks we'll see which non-PC party can move decisively ahead of the other.  A break to one or the other of non-PC party is pretty much the only chance of holding Ford short of a majority or even of stopping the guy. 

The ONDP is just as capable of beating him as the OLP, if not more so, since the ONDP doesn't have to defend an unpopular history of CURRENT governance.  

Sean in Ottawa

The ONDP at 28% 12 points behind and in a virtual tie with the Liberals -- prior to the campaign -- is actually in a position where they could build to win. Typically unpopular governmentsafter a long time in power decline during an election rather than increase and I think any vote that could go Conservative from the Liebrals is already gone. I suspect the NDP would benefit more than 3-1 on any vote that might leave the Liberals now. As well, I think the NDP is liable to have greater than its share of the undecided given that they benefit both from undecided anti-government votes and undecided stop the Conservative votes, There is no substantial anti-NDP pool right now and I don't think there will be one.

I suspect the NDP will be under-estimated. This means that the NDP if they are edging ahead, could be presumed to be a possible coalition lead with the Liberals. Many Liberals might like that idea, even with the NDP having more seats, disliking their current leader.

I think in the mid-twenties many people will write off the Liberal party as it is a trend down with little hope of reversal but for the NDP this is a trend up also with little expectation of reversal.

The Liberals have been bad in Ontario but more on issues of competence than ideology. They might be very happy to play nice with an NDP minority.

I still think that a Ford-Wyne-Horwath debate has a lot of potential to go sideways for Ford. It also has a lot of potential to go badly for Wynne. A good showing could move 6 points from Ford to Horwath erasing the deficit she has now. Ford holds a great deal of support that may not be Conservative but wants to punish Wynne. If Horwath offers them a viable home this is a new campaign.

Then there is the Trump effect: the media is so invovled in the Trump fiasco that comparisons to Ford no matter if they are fair or valid will get airplay and when they are valid they will hurt.

NorthReport

Not so fast - are you sure it's an NDP budget! 

Ontario Liberals table an NDP budget — so why not vote NDP instead?

The Liberals are trying to scare Ontarians into voting for them lest Doug Ford's PCs 'cut' programs that they only came up with 10 minutes ago and don't even exist yet

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-liberals-table-an-ndp-budge...

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-liberals-table-an-ndp-budge...

NorthReport

Still no change in the latest polling showing the PCs in the lead, followed by the NDP, and the Liberals last.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls

NorthReport

Here’s a Liberal favouring or Liberal connected pollster’s point of view:

http://onpulse.ca/blog/the-42nd-ontario-general-election-its-anyones-game

jerrym

NorthReport wrote:

Here’s a Liberal favouring or Liberal connected pollster’s point of view:

http://onpulse.ca/blog/the-42nd-ontario-general-election-its-anyones-game

Buried deep in the article is the following:

We found that 44% would at least consider voting for the Ontario Liberals, 58% would consider voting for the NDP, and 59% would consider the PCs. 

http://onpulse.ca/blog/the-42nd-ontario-general-election-its-anyones-game

The low percentage of people considering voting for the Liberals reflects the deep hostility many voters have to their last four years in office and makes it difficult for them to pull out a win as they would have to win over at least 85% of them to win. 

NorthReport

Bingo!

Well I did say they had a Liberal pedigree! 

We found that 44% would at least consider voting for the Ontario Liberals, 58% would consider voting for the NDP, and 59% would consider the PCs. 

Mighty Middle

From Now Magazine

The bad news for the NDP in Ontario is that they seem to be bleeding votes to the PCs, instead of the other way around. A poll released this week by Angus Reid shows the PCs ahead of the Dippers among voters who identify as working class. 

https://nowtoronto.com/news/doug-ford-ontario-election/

NorthReport

I’m not disputing this poll but do you have an actual link to the poll as opposed to an opinion being expressed?

jerrym

Mighty Middle wrote:

From Now Magazine

The bad news for the NDP in Ontario is that they seem to be bleeding votes to the PCs, instead of the other way around. A poll released this week by Angus Reid shows the PCs ahead of the Dippers among voters who identify as working class. 

https://nowtoronto.com/news/doug-ford-ontario-election/

There is good news here for the NDP. These voters aren't even considering voting Liberal. Immediately before your quote is the following:

It’s been a truism of Ontario politics – albeit a lesser known one – that in some ridings voters who support the PCs are just as likely to vote NDP, which has led some political observers to draw comparisons to Alberta when assessing the NDP’s chances. 

During Alberta’s last provincial election, the appetite for change was just as pronounced as it is now in Ontario, and Wild Rose supporters voted in droves for the NDP, toppling the PC majority that ruled the province for more than 40 years.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/doug-ford-ontario-election/

In Alberta, the PCs had an enormous lead before the election but when Notley far outperformed Prentice in the debates, voters shifted to the NDP, ignoring your beloved Liberals on the way. This type of Ontario voter may vote for Ford, but if he falters and/or Horvath performs well, especially in the debates, they are likely to shift towards the NDP without even considering the Liberals, as is the typical situation on the Prairies. 

 

progressive17 progressive17's picture

As in German, the "w" in Horwath's name is pronounced "v".

josh
voice of the damned

Holy shit. Is it too late for the Liberals to dump Wynne?

NorthReport

Andrea Horwath's Ontario NDP has taken a commandering 2nd place in latest polling, a full 6% ahead of the last place Liberals, and now 19% behind the leading PCs

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls

NorthReport

According to Forum Research Liberals are crashing and burning!

Forum

Date / PC / Cge / NDP / Cge / Lib/ Cge

Apr 18 / 46% / Up 10% / 27% / Up 1% / 21% / Down 8%

jerrym

The collapse of the Liberal vote leaves the Cons with th potential of a super majority of 94 seats to 23 for the NDP and 7 for the Liberals, driven by Wynne's disapproval rating, according to the Forum poll. 

Kathleen Wynne see’s approval from one-fifth (18%), and disapproval from three-quarters (73%). Only 1 in 10 (9%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score (Approve-Disapprove) is -54.

Doug Ford’s approval and disapproval are even, with (37%) saying they approve and (40%) saying they disapprove. One-quarter (23%) say they do not know. Doug Ford’s net favourable score is -3.

Andrea Horwath sees the best net favourable score, with approval of (37%) and disapproval of (32%). A third (31%) say they do not know about Andrea Horwath. Her net favourable score is +5  

“The bump in support following the Liberal budget is gone,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "The Progressive Conservatives are back where we’ve seen them for the past year, and Doug Ford looks on track to be Premier in a few months.

Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the PCs include those aged 45-54 (52%) or 55-64 (50%), male (59%), and anyone earning more than $40,000 including: $40,000-$60,000 (47%), $60,000-$80,000 (47%), $80,000-$100,000 (49%), and the most wealthy (50%), parents (51%), the least educated (56%), living in Eastern (50%) or Southwestern Ontario (48%), or the 905 (49%).

Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (33%), females (33%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (29%) or $40,000-$60,000 (32%), with a college/university degree (30%) or post-graduate degree (29%), and living in Toronto (30%), Southwestern Ontario (28%), or Northern Ontario (29%).

Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (24%) or 65+ (27%), female (26%), the least wealthy (29%), with a post-graduate degree (30%), and living in Toronto (28%).

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2838/ontario-horserace-april-2018

 

NorthReport

In spite of the extreme mainstream media onslaught of right-wing BS, with the polling results released this morning, it appears supporting Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP is now the only way to stop the right-wing Doug Ford.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

In spite of the extreme mainstream media onslaught of right-wing BS, with the polling results released this morning, it appears supporting Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP is now the only way to stop the right-wing Doug Ford.

So strategic voting is appropriate?

NorthReport

 

That’s been the Liberal’s war cry forever it seems!

JKR wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

In spite of the extreme mainstream media onslaught of right-wing BS, with the polling results released this morning, it appears supporting Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP is now the only way to stop the right-wing Doug Ford.

So strategic voting is appropriate?

NorthReport

Come on Ontario citizens. Obviously voting NDP now is the only possible way to stop the extreme right-wing Ford.

New poll puts Ontario PCs in 'super-majority' territory, NDP as opposition

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/new-poll-puts-ontario-pcs-in-super-majority-t...

Mighty Middle

Ironically the last time the third party in the Ontario Legislature vaulted to first to win the election was Mike Harris Conservatives.

lombardimax@hot...

Don’t count the Liberals out just yet. The vast establishment conspiracy is still alive and well and it continues to keep the NDP out and safeguards the lib-con revolving door to power. The reason it has been so successful is that nobody can put the finger where the heart of this machine lives.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Andrea Horwath's Ontario NDP has taken a commandering 2nd place in latest polling, a full 6% ahead of the last place Liberals, and now 19% behind the leading PCs

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls

Previously was 10% behind. So progress then.

NorthReport

No one ever counts out the perpetrators of unmarked brown envelopes slipped under reporters’ hotel room doors at all hours of the nite.

WWWTT

So where’s all the anti conservative government pro liberals now in all of this polling? I’m sure if the liberals were polling in second place now, they would be setting babble on fire right now. But since the ONDP are showing opposition polling numbers, me thinks these sad quacks have either already switched to Ford nation or zipping their lips and have moved on already. 

lombardimax@hot...

The pro-lib machine is working like hell behind the scenes to get back up to at least polling even with the NDP and then the fear machine will do the rest to insure the Libs finish at least second.

NorthReport

I wonder how many Canadians realize how much damage has been created to our country since it’s inception by Liberals’ deceit. Canadians know basically where the Conservatives stand, Canadians know where the NDP stand, but the Liberals are so full of lies, and have consistently campaigned on the left and governed on the right. Just imagine how much better Canada would be today had it actually been governed by progressives.

josh

And how much worse had it been governed by the Reformatories.

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