2018 Ontario Polls

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JKR

NorthReport wrote:

I wonder how many Canadians realize how much damage has been created to our country since it’s inception by Liberals’ deceit. Canadians know basically where the Conservatives stand, Canadians know where the NDP stand, but the Liberals are so full of lies, and have consistently campaigned on the left and governed on the right. Just imagine how much better Canada would be today had it actually been governed by progressives.

It seems to me that the federal Liberals are a party of the centre and centrism by its nature is unclear and "mushy." I think the Liberals have campaigned and governed basically from the centre of the political spectrum. If progressives want to move the Liberals leftward they could join them and influence their policies from within. It seems to me that provincially the NDP has also campaigned and governed mostly from the centre. I think the federal Liberals and NDP  actually make for natural coalition partners. I think if we had PR they would pribably take part in coalition governments with each other. But unfortunately we have FPTP and the Liberals and NDP  split the centre-left vote so the Conservatives often form governments via vote-splitting. Hopefully we will have some kind of electoral reform to bring about a fair electoral system.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

josh wrote:

And how much worse had it been governed by the Reformatories.

So both of those parties are horrible.  And since there is no longer any possible way to argue that the Liberals could win but the NDP can't, the argument that progressives HAVE to vote Liberal to stop Doug Ford is totally discredited.  The only argument that has existed for voting Liberal in Ontario elections since the Nineties was the notion that they could beat the PC's and the NDP can't-the argument for voting Liberal was never about anything BUT "strategy".  There was no principled case for voting for that party at all in the post-1996 era. 

So IF, as now appears to be a certainty, the Liberals can't beat the PC's, what argument is there for any progressive-minded people to vote Liberal instead of NDP this year?  There are now essentially NO Liberal-PC marginals in this election.

Sean in Ottawa

The media has it wrong. These polls are not increasing Ford's chance of winning. Theya re decreasing it.

First he is peaking early before the real campaign. Momentum downwards could be a real problem as more are supporting him than are likely to be sustainable now.

The opposition is no longer in a tie. This is the scenario that the Conservatives needed. If the NDP starts the campaign with a lead rather than a tie, if the Liberals sink any lower they will build momentum.

The only chance in this election of defeating Ford -- as the Conservative to lose -- was:

1) they peak early

2) the NDP break from a tie with the Liberals early

3) Ford become presumed winner early with those thinking they want to stop him

4) The alternative to Ford not be the party that people want to throw out

These have happened.

More has to happen but this story may not end the way Ford "nation" imagines.

Mighty Middle

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The media has it wrong. These polls are not increasing Ford's chance of winning. Theya re decreasing it.

Only problem is that former NDP voters have moved from Horwath to Ford, and there is no sign that they plan to switch back to the NDP. As written in the Toronto Star yesterday

Ford is pulling votes from both Liberal and NDP supporters, which has him leading in the polls. And they seem unmoveable to move back to either the Liberal or NDP camp. Which is the whole point of the article.

What should concern Premier Kathleen Wynne and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath – as polls consistently suggest Ford enjoys support in majority government territory – is how immoveable those drawn to populists are once committed.

“Once they’ve made a decision they have a hard time admitting they’re wrong,” he said.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The NDP vote has risen in the polls since the election.  If former NDP voters were backing Ford, that wouldn't be mathematically possible-the NDP vote share would have declined.

The PC's are in a (generally declining) lead because the voters don't want the Liberals in power anymore, not because of anything people who voted NDP in past elections have done.

Your attempts to blame the NDP for Ford have failed, and it is impossible for the Liberals to win the 2018 Ontario election.  

WWWTT

Ya I would take the Toronto star with a huge grain of salt. They’re huge liberal supporters. 

Its numerically obvious that the Ford numbers have to do with liberal supporters jumping on board. 

I think suggesting the ONDP supporters are boosting conservative numbers is a game to hide the lack of ethical value many liberal supporters have. 

cco

As usual, the Liberal argument goes that Tory voters are unmoveable, Liberal voters are unmoveable, so it falls to the NDP voters to move.

NorthReport

- from the most recent poll

Many Liberals would rather the PCs win than support the NDP.  Go figure!

Liberal Budget Gains Disappear Progressive Conservative Majority, Liberals lose party status if an election held today
 

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2838/ontario-horserace-april-2018/

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

- from the most recent poll

Many Liberals would rather the PCs win than support the NDP.  Go figure!

Liberal Budget Gains Disappear Progressive Conservative Majority, Liberals lose party status if an election held today
 

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2838/ontario-horserace-april-2018/

You've already quoted that poll.  In requoting it, you're making it sound like it's new numbers when it isn't.  Essentially, nothing has changed since the last poll.

josh

He does that all the time.

lombardimax@hot...

All the coverage of the election so far, despite the polls, show wall-to-wall Wynne vs Ford. Why don’t we get international observers to insure the election coverage is not rigged?

NorthReport

Too late for that!

jerrym

A new Leger poll suggests that the party leader will be critical in determining how the election goes with Andrea Horwath considered to be the one who ranks best on having what it takes to lead the province, in addition to being more competent, more trustworthy and more aligned with the provinces core values. While the PCs still lead in the polls and Ford is ahead as best premier, these results suggest Horwath has the best chance for growth. The PCs still lead with 43% support while the NDP and Liberals are tied at 26%.

A new poll suggests the outcome of Ontario's election will come down to which leader, rather than which party, can win voters' confidence -- with Andrea Horwath the top challenger to Doug Ford.

An online poll conducted this month by the research firm Leger shows a quarter of participants believe the Progressive Conservative leader would make the best premier, while 20 per cent think it's the NDP leader and 12 per cent chose the Liberal leader and current premier, Kathleen Wynne.

At the same time, when asked whether Ford and Horwath have what it takes to lead the province, more people said Horwath did -- 35 per cent to Ford's 30.

And Horwath rated higher than both her rivals on characteristics such as competence, trustworthiness, and alignment with the core values of Ontario's population.

When it comes to the parties, however, the poll shows the Tories still in the lead with support from 43 per cent of participants. The New Democrats and the Liberals are tied at 26 per cent. ...

While a certain part of the population will vote Tory regardless, "all of these people that cannot say that yes, Mr. Ford has what it takes to be premier of Ontario, are the ones who may still switch," he said.

"So it's very much now about the leader and how statesman-like he will look over the course of the next few weeks and if he looks fit for the job. It think now it becomes a referendum on Doug Ford more than an election or not of the Conservatives."

The results suggest a shift in the left as well, he said.

When asked whether a Ford, Wynne or Horwath government would be disastrous for the province, only a third of those polled said yes for the NDP leader, compared with 44 per cent for Ford and 59 per cent for Wynne.

"The majority of people feel that four more years of Wynne Liberals would be a disaster but nobody seems to mind an NDP government," Bourque said. ...

More than 1,000 Ontario residents eligible to vote in the election participated in the survey, which was conducted from last Friday to Monday. The polling industry's professional body, the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error as they are not a random sample and therefore are not necessarily representative of the whole population.

https://www.cp24.com/news/horwath-top-challenger-to-ford-in-ontario-elec...

 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Why don’t we get international observers to insure the election coverage is not rigged?

That's funny.

Quote:
Too late for that!

But that's even funnier!

Ya, it's about six weeks away, and already the ballot boxes are being stuffed with the fake ballots.  We missed our chance!!!

 

NorthReport

Talking about pollsters being attached at the hip to the Liberals here is another Liberal commercial

https://mailchi.mp/abacusdata/onpulse-grab-that-coffee-its-our-weekly-roundup-507829?e=75d6beca1d

josh
NorthReport

Ontario PC Party's lead over Liberals, NDP shrinks, new poll says

 

“The NDP and the Liberals can take some solace that they have made up ground on the PCs, but they will need the PC vote to collapse in order to catch up. The PCs have large leads in every region in Ontario except Toronto.”

Mainstreet said it is the first time this year that it has seen the NDP take more than 20 per cent of the vote.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-pc-party-s-lead-over-liberals-ndp-shri...

NorthReport
NorthReport

dp

NorthReport

Some seat projections

PC 55

NDP 26

LIB 11

Undecided 32

https://goodgawdanotherblog.wordpress.com/

lombardimax@hot...

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-po...

I'm hopeful that this poll is accurate, but cautious about Liberal Don Guy being behind it and starting a bogus trend toward Liberal momemtum later in the campaign.

josh

lombardimax@hotmail.com wrote:

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-po...

I'm hopeful that this poll is accurate, but cautious about Liberal Don Guy being behind it and starting a bogus trend toward Liberal momemtum later in the campaign.

PC 40

NDP 30

L 23

NorthReport

 PCs 40%

NDP 30%

Libs 23%

A very significant thing about this poll is that 78% of Liberals could switch to NDP to stop Ford

Maybe we will have a minority government

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

I think the second choice picks in the Maclean's poll are very interesting. The NDP clearly has the most room to grow. This election could be very interesting.

NDP    33
Green  16
PC      11
Lib     11

NorthReport

If the NDP won we would have 3 NDP governments in Canada at the same time How often has that happened in the past? Is 3 the most number of NDP governments Canada has ever had at one time?

cco

In 1992, for a brief window, Ontario, BC, Saskatchewan, and Yukon all simultaneously had an NDP premier. (I'd thought there was overlap with Doer, making 5, but according to Wikipedia, he didn't come in until after Rae was defeated.)

We're including territories, right?

josh
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Any theories as to why the Nanos poll was such an outlier, compared to all the others?

josh

Taken at a different point in time.

jerrym

If Horwath runs a good campaign she is in a great position to win with a quite left-wing agenda as the NDP leads in "accessible voters" with 62% to the Cons 54% to the Liberals 46%. At 46%, the Liberals would have to win 85% of accessible voters to have a chance of winning, a very challenging task. 

The NDP’s pool of accessible voters has grown while the PC pool has shrunk. The Ontario NDP now has the largest pool of accessible voters (62%), growing 4 points since our first wave. The PC pool is down 5 to 54% while the Liberal pool marginally increased by 2 points to 46%.

Wave2 2

http://www.onpulse.ca/blog/new-data-as-first-debate-looms-ford-and-pcs-d...

 

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Wow! This is moving fast enough.

NorthReport

Thanks cco

More NDP governments at one time than I realized

I doubt many Canadians are aware of this

 

cco wrote:
In 1992, for a brief window, Ontario, BC, Saskatchewan, and Yukon all simultaneously had an NDP premier. (I'd thought there was overlap with Doer, making 5, but according to Wikipedia, he didn't come in until after Rae was defeated.) We're including territories, right?

NorthReport

Thanks cco

More NDP governments at one time than I realized

I doubt many Canadians are aware of this

 

cco wrote:
In 1992, for a brief window, Ontario, BC, Saskatchewan, and Yukon all simultaneously had an NDP premier. (I'd thought there was overlap with Doer, making 5, but according to Wikipedia, he didn't come in until after Rae was defeated.) We're including territories, right?

NorthReport

So the latest Liberal, sorry I mean Abacus poll shows both the NDP and the PCs up 5 points each and the Liberals down 1%.

NorthReport

What did it take for the Liberals to arrange for another poll to be released after the Pollara poll came out showing the Liberals dropping out of contention? Half an hour! I tell ya, these folks are pros at manipulating polls.

So the latest Liberal, sorry I mean Abacus poll shows both the NDP and the PCs up 5 points each and the Liberals down 1%.

WWWTT

Is it safe to say yet that the polls getting posted in this thread at least show an ONDP official opposition?

Also the momentum, I’m interpreting this as an ONDP minority government if it continues. 

I believe an ONDP minority government would be better for socialism than a majority. But perhaps I’ll just stick with poll related comments for now

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

You'll know that an ONDP government is a possibility if the MSM start attacking Horwath, or even if they start mentioning her.  

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

Who would make the best premier of Ontario?

Horwath 38%

Ford 37%

Wynne 19%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4196280/ontario-election-different-leader-poll/

josh
NorthReport

In top 10 election issues, Ontario voters don’t trust the Liberals: 

The top election issue on the minds of the Ontario people is healthcare , which 35 per cent of respondents said they’d trust Andrea Horwath and the NDP to best deal with.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4199176/ontario-election-issues-liberals-ipso...

NorthReport

Andrea Horwath's NDP making gains as Ontario election begins

Doug Ford's PCs continue to hold a commanding a lead as Kathleen Wynne's Liberals fall into third place

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ontario-polltracker-may10-1.4656808

Mighty Middle

WWWTT wrote:

Ya I would take the Toronto star with a huge grain of salt. They’re huge liberal supporters. 

Its numerically obvious that the Ford numbers have to do with liberal supporters jumping on board. 

I think suggesting the ONDP supporters are boosting conservative numbers is a game to hide the lack of ethical value many liberal supporters have. 

So are you saying that Ford is attracting ZERO NDP supporters? That it is all Liberals supporting Ford.

Because in this latest poll it shows Ford attracting 20% of NDP supporters

One thing that is interesting is that everyone is cheerleading for Forum, which shows the NDP moving up. This is the same polling firm many on this board have said is just an extension of the Liberal Party.

But now that they show poll after poll that the NDP are moving up, that narrative (Forum = Liberals) has been thrown out the window. Now Forum Research (whom Now Magazine calls a Conservative pollster) is the NDP best friend.

Interesting that  the polling firms who have questionable techniques & methodology (MainStreet & Forum) show the NDP in 2nd with the Liberals trailing badly. While the more respected firms like Nanos & Abbucus have the Liberals second. Which says to me that these Conservative Polling firms (Forum & Mainstreet) are deliberately pushing out a narrative in the media to vote NDP. That way the vote is split and would allow the Conservatives to come up the middle.

But then again everyone here will say that Forum & Mainstreet are to be trusted since they show the NDP in second. Even though in 2015 when these firms showed the NDP & Mulcair in third everyone here said they were not to be trusted because they were in bed with the Liberals!

NorthReport

Things can change over time, and polling companies take their turn at being accurate and not accurate, but Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid have always been in the top tier of credible pollsters. 

But apparently there are not enough polling companies touting for the Liberals, as even the Liberal supporting CBC are now pushing more Liberal polls on us. Who knew!

Mighty Middle

NorthReport wrote:

But apparently there are not enough polling companies touting for the Liberals, as even the Liberal supporting CBC are now pushing more Liberal polls on us. Who knew!

Exactly so it is a fallacy to think every single polling firm is in bed with the Liberals just because they show them in the lead.

NorthReport

It's early in the campaign and things can change. Usually, but not always, the polls will give us a sense of what is happening. But when you see a poll come out showing so and so in the lead, and then another polling firm 1/2 hour later brings out a contradictory poll, like what happened earlier in the week, it could make you think someone is cooking the books, so to speak, eh!  

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If the NDP is now at 33%, identification with "Ford Nation" no longer equates, if it ever did, to an actual intention to vote PC.  And there's never been any reason for you to act like it means more that 20% of 2014 NDP voters identify with "Ford Nation" than it does that 21% of 2014 Liberal voters say the same thing.  Clearly, the poll proves that Ford's actual support from NDP voters is evaporating.

What is your point in repeatedly and relentlessly trumpeting that one statistic anyway?  Are you trying to argue that ONDP voters are somehow more reactionary than OLP voters?  OR that identification with "Ford Nation" is somehow the ONDP's fault?  

So you have no reason to keep making an issue of that.  What matters is that NDP support is surging and the PC's are no longer overwhelming favorites.

Mighty Middle

Ken Burch wrote:

If the NDP is now at 33%, identification with "Ford Nation" no longer equates, if it ever did, to an actual intention to vote PC.  And there's never been any reason for you to act like it means more that 20% of 2014 NDP voters identify with "Ford Nation" than it does that 21% of 2014 Liberal voters say the same thing.  Clearly, the poll proves that Ford's actual support from NDP voters is evaporating.

What is your point in repeatedly and relentlessly trumpeting that one statistic anyway?  Are you trying to argue that ONDP voters are somehow more reactionary than OLP voters?  OR that identification with "Ford Nation" is somehow the ONDP's fault?  

So you have no reason to keep making an issue of that.  What matters is that NDP support is surging and the PC's are no longer overwhelming favorites.

Where are you getting the 33% number?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

If the NDP is now at 33%, identification with "Ford Nation" no longer equates, if it ever did, to an actual intention to vote PC.  And there's never been any reason for you to act like it means more that 20% of 2014 NDP voters identify with "Ford Nation" than it does that 21% of 2014 Liberal voters say the same thing.  Clearly, the poll proves that Ford's actual support from NDP voters is evaporating.

What is your point in repeatedly and relentlessly trumpeting that one statistic anyway?  Are you trying to argue that ONDP voters are somehow more reactionary than OLP voters?  OR that identification with "Ford Nation" is somehow the ONDP's fault?  

So you have no reason to keep making an issue of that.  What matters is that NDP support is surging and the PC's are no longer overwhelming favorites.

Where are you getting the 33% number?

From the Forum poll which has the race at 40% PC, 33% NDP, 22% Lib.  There are essentially no polls that support the argument that voting Liberal is the best way to stop Ford...the clear trend in the most recent series of polls is the PC's remaining stationary or falling, the NDP surging, and the Liberals in third place.  That is the trend.  

It no longer matters who identified with "Ford Nation" in that one graphic you keep posting.

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