2018 Ontario Polls

468 posts / 0 new
Last post
Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

JeffWells wrote:

IMO if Liberal strategists aren't worried it's because they have a Bay Street drop zone for their golden parachutes. Three weeks can be a long time in an election, but it doesn't feel that way this time. Wynne is finished.

So do you think (to avoid a vote split) have the entire slate of Liberal candidate should withdraw their candidacies?

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

IMO if Liberal strategists aren't worried it's because they have a Bay Street drop zone for their golden parachutes. Three weeks can be a long time in an election, but it doesn't feel that way this time. Wynne is finished.

So do you think (to avoid a vote split) have the entire slate of Liberal candidate should withdraw their candidacies?

Perfect example of trolling. Of course nobody would suggest that.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

IMO if Liberal strategists aren't worried it's because they have a Bay Street drop zone for their golden parachutes. Three weeks can be a long time in an election, but it doesn't feel that way this time. Wynne is finished.

So do you think (to avoid a vote split) have the entire slate of Liberal candidate should withdraw their candidacies?

Perfect example of trolling. Of course nobody would suggest that.

Why not? That would avoid the vote split on the left if the Liberals were not running candidates. Wynne and the Liberals are not going to win, so why shouldn't they withdraw.

This is a conversation that has been had before to avoid a split on the left. From merging the parties to having joint nominations so only one left of center candiate faces off with the Conservatives. But right now it is too late for either of those options to avoid a vote split.

So please provide one good reason why the Liberals should stay in the race (as opposed to pulling all of their candiates) as they would inflict more damage if they stayed in the race.

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

IMO if Liberal strategists aren't worried it's because they have a Bay Street drop zone for their golden parachutes. Three weeks can be a long time in an election, but it doesn't feel that way this time. Wynne is finished.

So do you think (to avoid a vote split) have the entire slate of Liberal candidate should withdraw their candidacies?

Perfect example of trolling. Of course nobody would suggest that.

Why not? That would avoid the vote split on the left if the Liberals were not running candidates. Wynne and the Liberals are not going to win, so why shouldn't they withdraw.

This is a conversation that has been had before to avoid a split on the left. From merging the parties to having joint nominations so only one left of center candiate faces off with the Conservatives. But right now it is too late for either of those options to avoid a vote split.

So please provide one good reason why the Liberals should stay in the race (as opposed to pulling all of their candiates) as they would inflict more damage if they stayed in the race.

Ok so if asking a whole party to give up to avoid splitting the vote is not trolling  it is the height of stupid. If you are really that stupid and not trolling -- my apologies.

If you think that the Liberals would like to be completely replaced by the NDP making sure that they could not recover in the future, if you are truly this stupid and it is not an act then of course I apologize.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ok so if asking a whole party to give up to avoid splitting the vote is not trolling  it is the height of stupid.

You are the only one here on Babble who thinks that, so it says more about you than anyone else on this board.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

IMO if Liberal strategists aren't worried it's because they have a Bay Street drop zone for their golden parachutes. Three weeks can be a long time in an election, but it doesn't feel that way this time. Wynne is finished.

So do you think (to avoid a vote split) have the entire slate of Liberal candidate should withdraw their candidacies?

Perfect example of trolling. Of course nobody would suggest that.

Why not? That would avoid the vote split on the left if the Liberals were not running candidates. Wynne and the Liberals are not going to win, so why shouldn't they withdraw.

This is a conversation that has been had before to avoid a split on the left. From merging the parties to having joint nominations so only one left of center candiate faces off with the Conservatives. But right now it is too late for either of those options to avoid a vote split.

So please provide one good reason why the Liberals should stay in the race (as opposed to pulling all of their candiates) as they would inflict more damage if they stayed in the race.

They should, by simple logic, stay in the race for the seats they already hold, just as, (in the opposite situation that usually exists where the Ontario Liberals are usually pressing for ONDP voters to vote "strategically", by which they mean voting Liberal) the ONDP should stay in the race in the seats THEY would already be holding.  

Nobody here is demanding that the OLP give up trying to retain any seats at all.  And you know it.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

Nobody here is demanding that the OLP give up trying to retain any seats at all.  And you know it.

Nobody is suggesting it. I'm just saying if I was Kathleen Wynne that is what I would do. Think of the bigger picture as to what would be good for Ontario.

Ken Burch seems to agree "slightly" (not saying 100%) but slightly to pull out of certain races they don't hold to avoid vote splitting. But not entirely out of the race.

But like I said I would pull out completely if I was Wynne. Why go through the humilation of a wipe out, and chance a Ford victory due to vote-splitting.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Nobody here is demanding that the OLP give up trying to retain any seats at all.  And you know it.

Nobody is suggesting it. I'm just saying if I was Kathleen Wynne that is what I would do. Think of the bigger picture as to what would be good for Ontario.

Ken Burch seems to agree "slightly" (not saying 100%) but slightly to pull out of certain races they don't hold to avoid vote splitting. But not entirely out of the race.

But like I said I would pull out completely if I was Wynne. Why go through the humilation of a wipe out, and chance a Ford victory due to vote-splitting.

Oh.  Interesting thought.  Wynne would never do it, though.   And I'm not sure she actually has the power to single-handedly withdraw her entire party from the election.  The closest comparison I can make to that is Uttal Dosanjh's bizarre decision to concede defeat halfway through the 2001 BC election campaign, a decision which probably helped ensure the party's reduction to 2 seats.  

Would Bay Street(which still largely controls the Ontario Liberal purse strings) allow Wynne to do it?  You'd think they would insist on keeping two "free enterprise" parties in Queen's Park...if for no other reason than to set up a merger into something like the BC Socreds and the Yukon and Saskatchewan "Parties".   They would be furious with her for releasing the small remnant of "progressive" Liberal voters from their party loyalty so they could vote ONDP with a clear conscience.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

Oh.  Interesting thought.  Wynne would never do it, though.   And I'm not sure she actually has the power to single-handedly withdraw her entire party from the election.  The closest comparison I can make to that is Uttal Dosanjh's bizarre decision to concede defeat halfway through the 2001 BC election campaign, a decision which probably helped ensure the party's reduction to 2 seats. 

Exactly and look at Kim Campbell

Ken Burch wrote:

Would Bay Street(which still largely controls the Ontario Liberal purse strings) allow Wynne to do it?  You'd think they would insist on keeping two "free enterprise" parties in Queen's Park...if for no other reason than to set up a merger into something like the BC Socreds and the Yukon and Saskatchewan "Parties".   They would be furious with her for releasing the small remnant of "progressive" Liberal voters from their party loyalty so they could vote ONDP with a clear conscience.

I'm sure at this point Kathleen Wynne would tell the Bay Street Boys FU and then go ask Justin Trudeau for Ambassador position.

robbie_dee

Ken Burch wrote:

Would Bay Street(which still largely controls the Ontario Liberal purse strings) allow Wynne to do it?  You'd think they would insist on keeping two "free enterprise" parties in Queen's Park...if for no other reason than to set up a merger into something like the BC Socreds and the Yukon and Saskatchewan "Parties".   They would be furious with her for releasing the small remnant of "progressive" Liberal voters from their party loyalty so they could vote ONDP with a clear conscience.

I don't know what Bay Street is going to do, although I assume it will probably consist of accomodating itself to whoever ends up in power after the next election so as to minimize the obstacles to their continuing to make money. I have found it interesting that the Toronto Star appears to be largely abandoning the Liberals, though, and joining the "strategic vote  for the NDP" bandwagon. The editorial staff there really hates Doug Ford (and I think the feeling's mutual).

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I think Ontario in 2018 may finally be catching up to the UK in 1922...moving, finally, to Tory V. Labour as the natural choice in elections.  If the NDP makes the showing it seems to be heading for, and sustains its popularity in Ontario going into the 2019 elections, the structural integrity of the federal Liberals could be at risk.  

NorthReport

Check Paul Wells on Twitter 

Ciabatta2

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

The Liberals can't win only two seats with a vote total above 10%.  Stuff like this is shamefully bad prognosticating and hurts the credibility of all political analysis.

Yes the Progressive Conservatives nationally couldn't win 16.2% of the vote and only two seats. Oh, wait.

I guess this must be bad history?

...

Vote distribution is everything unless you have PR. The Liberals could run second to the Conservatives AND second to the NDP across the board, have the most votes, and no seats. Unlikely but possible.

Exactly my point. If you look at how their votes and seats are distributed across Ontario (not Canada, not New Brunswick), it is practically impossible for the Liberals to get above 10% of the popular vote but only win two seats. Not going to happen in the Ontario 2018 context. Awful analysis.

Where is your data? You criticize the analysis saying it is bad -- so where's yours? Liberal vote distribution in the province is notoriously even. The strongholds were in Toronto and the poll suggests them losing those to either the NDP or Conservatives. Also the analysis provided a range with the most likely being this number.

The number was produced through math not a guess. I can see how that could bear out. The distribution of votes for the Liberals give them maximum advantage when they reach a threshold. Below that it is really bad -- for the same reason -- very even results across the province except with slightly better in Toronto -- if they lose that then they lose almost all.

Other than not liking the conclusion explain why you think it is not the most likely in these numbers.

You might also want to look at Manitoba's history to see exactly the same dynamic -- Liberals running second to the NDP in some and second to the PCs in some and winning very few. Many ridings tilt either toward the NDP or Conservatives and will go Liberal most of the time when the Liberals have a high enough vote. When that vote drops it is all gone.

Liberal vote distribution in Ontario is even?

They won more than 54 percent of the seats with 38 percent of the vote in 2014.  They won a majority yet still placed third in 10 percent of seats. That's anything but even. 

The PCs had 20 percent fewer votes but ended up with 50 percent fewer seats.  Their voters are much more spread out across the province.

The Liberals have a majority with a total of 6 seats outside of the GGH and Ottawa.

The Liberals could drop to 10-15% and keep more than 2 seats in Toronto alone.

They're anything but dead at these polling levels, even if they persist.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Strategic voting is a necessary component of FPTP.  The general rule I have is that you have to consider short term and long term.  Short term thinking is to consider the FPTP winner in your particularly constituency, but you have to also consider your long term goals.  If you strongly want the Green Party to achieve success you will need to vote for them, knowing that their short term prospects are nil. 

Talking about a party withdrawing all its candidates is just crazy unless you are also suggesting that they should disband.  It is also early in the campaign still.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Pogo wrote:

Talking about a party withdrawing all its candidates is just crazy unless you are also suggesting that they should disband.  It is also early in the campaign still.

As Jack Layton said they need to go into the penalty box. They could always come back in 2022. Anyways the point is moot now, the deadline to withdraw candidates has come and gone. But if I was Kathleen Wynne, I would withdraw them all to avoid vote splitting, because Ford is that dangerous.

robbie_dee

Ken Burch wrote:

I think Ontario in 2018 may finally be catching up to the UK in 1922...moving, finally, to Tory V. Labour as the natural choice in elections.  If the NDP makes the showing it seems to be heading for, and sustains its popularity in Ontario going into the 2019 elections, the structural integrity of the federal Liberals could be at risk.  

I dunno. Even IF the NDP surge holds up through election day, the Ontario parties are in a very different situation from the federal ones. I get the impression the Ontario Liberals have really worn out their welcome after 15 years, whereas Justin Trudeau still has some goodwill left. Also the Ontario PCs inexplicably chose to select the most polarizing possible leader after the Patrick Brown fiasco, basically leaving Horwath as the default choice for a large number of voters who really hate their other options. If the Ontario PCs actually lose this to the NDP this will have to go down as one of the greatest own goals in Canadian political history (perhaps alongside the Danielle Smith-led official opposition Wildrose MLA's decision to blow up their own party and join Jim Prentice's Alberta PC government right before it went down in flames). I wouldn't consider Andrew Scheer a "moderate" like Christine Elliott purported to be, but he is a lot blander than Ford and I can't see him invoking the same strong reactions among so many voters. I also think that rather than the federal NDP getting a Horwath "bump" in Ontario, at the federal Liberals' expense, its possible that Trudeau actually benefits from the loss of an unpopular provincial government dragging him down. We'll see I guess.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Mighty Middle wrote:

Pogo wrote:

Talking about a party withdrawing all its candidates is just crazy unless you are also suggesting that they should disband.  It is also early in the campaign still.

As Jack Layton said they need to go into the penalty box. They could always come back in 2022. Anyways the point is moot now, the deadline to withdraw candidates has come and gone. But if I was Kathleen Wynne, I would withdraw them all to avoid vote splitting, because Ford is that dangerous.

That is just the dumbest idea I have seen on babble all year. Sorry to all and sundry for giving it this much additional oxygen.

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

The Liberals can't win only two seats with a vote total above 10%.  Stuff like this is shamefully bad prognosticating and hurts the credibility of all political analysis.

Yes the Progressive Conservatives nationally couldn't win 16.2% of the vote and only two seats. Oh, wait.

I guess this must be bad history?

...

Vote distribution is everything unless you have PR. The Liberals could run second to the Conservatives AND second to the NDP across the board, have the most votes, and no seats. Unlikely but possible.

Exactly my point. If you look at how their votes and seats are distributed across Ontario (not Canada, not New Brunswick), it is practically impossible for the Liberals to get above 10% of the popular vote but only win two seats. Not going to happen in the Ontario 2018 context. Awful analysis.

Where is your data? You criticize the analysis saying it is bad -- so where's yours? Liberal vote distribution in the province is notoriously even. The strongholds were in Toronto and the poll suggests them losing those to either the NDP or Conservatives. Also the analysis provided a range with the most likely being this number.

The number was produced through math not a guess. I can see how that could bear out. The distribution of votes for the Liberals give them maximum advantage when they reach a threshold. Below that it is really bad -- for the same reason -- very even results across the province except with slightly better in Toronto -- if they lose that then they lose almost all.

Other than not liking the conclusion explain why you think it is not the most likely in these numbers.

You might also want to look at Manitoba's history to see exactly the same dynamic -- Liberals running second to the NDP in some and second to the PCs in some and winning very few. Many ridings tilt either toward the NDP or Conservatives and will go Liberal most of the time when the Liberals have a high enough vote. When that vote drops it is all gone.

Liberal vote distribution in Ontario is even?

They won more than 54 percent of the seats with 38 percent of the vote in 2014.  They won a majority yet still placed third in 10 percent of seats. That's anything but even. 

The PCs had 20 percent fewer votes but ended up with 50 percent fewer seats.  Their voters are much more spread out across the province.

The Liberals have a majority with a total of 6 seats outside of the GGH and Ottawa.

The Liberals could drop to 10-15% and keep more than 2 seats in Toronto alone.

They're anything but dead at these polling levels, even if they persist.

Do the math -- the only way you can get 54% of seats with 38% of the vote is with fairly even distribution. If you have high concentations that means wasted vote and you would need much more than 38% to get a majority. Game this out and you will see. To a majority with 38% you need very good distribution- if you lose a little of that you can lose most of the seats.

The Liberal problem is they are behind in their strongholds running second in many places with lots of votes that are not strong enough to give seats. This is how they could lose many seats.

The NDP is in the opposite position. Their vote is overly concentrated which would lead to blow outs and wasted votes going to seats they would get anyway -- Tthe NDP vote has to get pretty high in order to deliver enough to govern.

The Conservatives are at the moment in the Goldilocks zone -- the reality is if they increase a bit from this they likely would not get much more and if they decrease they could lose a bundle.

When distribution is near perfect it means an increase may not help much and a decrease would hurt a lot.

The Liberals are way below their efficient levels. So at 22% they could get 2 seats. A couple points more at 24% and they could get 15 and at 28% they could get twice as many as that.

The NDP are also below an efficient range. At 35% they could get 30-35 seats while at 38% they could get double that or more.

The reason is these are individual races. No prize for second and no bonus for any vote more than a win.

The Liberals are in a bad way becuase their stronghold is Toronto: the Conservatives have increased there and so have the NDP to the point where the Liberals are running behind all over the place.

And There are many seats like the one I am in -- Ottawa South. This is the kind of seat the Liberals need to win. I am pretty sure this will go Conservative. The Liberals are losing both to the NDP and to the Conservatives depending on where you are.

But look at the range listed in the poll -- it is all math but it shows the most likely based on the poll result but also shows quite a range becuase small differences will make a big difference.

 

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Pogo wrote:

 That is just the dumbest idea I have seen on babble all year. Sorry to all and sundry for giving it this much additional oxygen.

and if the vote splits and twice as many PCs get elected for a super-majority, I'll ask you again if you think it is a stupid idea.

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Pogo wrote:

Talking about a party withdrawing all its candidates is just crazy unless you are also suggesting that they should disband.  It is also early in the campaign still.

As Jack Layton said they need to go into the penalty box. They could always come back in 2022. Anyways the point is moot now, the deadline to withdraw candidates has come and gone. But if I was Kathleen Wynne, I would withdraw them all to avoid vote splitting, because Ford is that dangerous.

Well that's just silly -- if they withdrew then their vote would split to NDP and Conservative and quite possibly give the Conservatives a bigger win. Also a bad blowout would make it much harder to come back.

The Liberals are hoping to increase enough to retain party status -- change leaders and have a go next time. If the Conservatives win there is still hope for them to come from third with a new leader. A washout and that is less likely.

The NDP are pushing hard becuase if they do not make it they will face a new Liberal leader and a new dynamic. If the conservatives go down significantly the Liberals can go up but if they are still high just above or below the NDP the Liberals will find that harder. The Liebrals will want to bring down the NDP any way they can. It is better for them to have a Ford sweep than a strong NDP opposition -- or victory.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Well that's just silly -- if they withdrew then their vote would split to NDP and Conservative and quite possibly give the Conservatives a bigger win. Also a bad blowout would make it much harder to come back.

Not if Red Tories move to the NDP instead of the Liberals. As I had mentioned I'm seeing post after post after post on other message boards from Red Tories who cannot stomach Ford and are turning to the NDP. So if the NDP gets all the progressive vote, plus Red Tories then the vote cannot split between the NDP and Conservatives.

Justin Trudeau pulled off the same win by openly courting Red Tories.

cco

No political party -- Liberal, NDP, American Green, you name it -- ever has a "responsibility" not to exist in order to help the less-objectionable of its enemies. That's a grotesque caricature of democracy, and if implemented, would only lead to the less-objectionable enemy party gravitating toward the platform of the worst party now that it no longer has any competition on the other side.

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Pogo wrote:

 That is just the dumbest idea I have seen on babble all year. Sorry to all and sundry for giving it this much additional oxygen.

and if the vote splits and twice as many PCs get elected for a super-majority, I'll ask you again if you think it is a stupid idea.

Hey there Might Liberal -- the Liberal party is not going to place the province above its interests as a party. I actually think no party will ever do that as they always think they are the best choice. What you are suggesting is political suicide.

A party that does not think that the best interests of a jurisdiction are in its survival would not just stand down for an election -- they would disband.

Never mind that -- consider all the donations volunteers -- do you seriously think the Liberals would have an easy time getting people to support them in the future if they folded as you suggest now? They would be a laughing stock and an extremely poor future investment.

All parties are true believers -- it it idiotic to think otherwise.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Hey there Might Liberal -- the Liberal party is not going to place the province above its interests as a party. I actually think no party will ever do that as they always think they are the best choice. What you are suggesting is political suicide.

A party that does not think that the best interests of a jurisdiction are in its survival would not just stand down for an election -- they would disband.

Never mind that -- consider all the donations volunteers -- do you seriously think the Liberals would have an easy time getting people to support them in the future if they folded as you suggest now? They would be a laughing stock and an extremely poor future investment.

All parties are true believers -- it it idiotic to think otherwise.

Well like I said you are the only one on Babble who feels this way, so it says more about you than anyone else here.

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Well that's just silly -- if they withdrew then their vote would split to NDP and Conservative and quite possibly give the Conservatives a bigger win. Also a bad blowout would make it much harder to come back.

Not if Red Tories move to the NDP instead of the Liberals. As I had mentioned I'm seeing post after post after post on other message boards from Red Tories who cannot stomach Ford and are turning to the NDP. So if the NDP gets all the progressive vote, plus Red Tories then the vote cannot split between the NDP and Conservatives.

Justin Trudeau pulled off the same win by openly courting Red Tories.

Which party pulled its candidates for Trudeau -- please tell me more. I missed that news. LOL.

Red Tories are a fantasy. The posts you see might even be NDP supporters playing games. All parties have supporters doing this. It is one of the reasons when you poll and ask how people voted in the previous election you get nowhere near the results of that election as people lie to suggest momentum.

For the most part Red Tories have been voting Liberal for years. Bill Davis was the last Red Tory premier. The Conservatives have won more recently by stirring up anger from the right -- not by appealing to the red tory dynamic that existed in the 1970s-1980s.

Much of the kind of what used to vote Liberal back then is likely now with the NDP. Wynne pulled them back with a run to the left but now they are again with the NDP. The Conservatives are very much like a Reform party -- populist right, the Liberals are pretty much the Red Tory party after Bill Davis. The NDP has moved to be what they used to be plus a chunk of what the Liberals were back in the day.

Apart from that you have a bunch of voters without significant ideology floating -- and they are now split between the NDP and the Conservatives. I believe the number without an identificable ideology has been growing the fastest which is why elections are less predictable and loyalty is way down. It is also the reason why you can see people vote for Wynne or Horwath in one election and Ford in another. Or why Horwath might have a chance here.

But Red tories? theya re not an identifiable force. The Conservatives in Ontario  have pushed their moderates out over a the last two decades.  That was the dynamic that let the Liberals win as long as they did.

It is also the reason why a Ford victory is a problem -- becuase there is no Red Tory wing of the present PC party.

---

As for election dynamics the NDP need the Liberals to decline a little more and to get from the Conservatives some votes. If the Liberals drop much more they will bleed to Ford as well as the NDP. Mouch of what is Liberal now will not consider the NDP or they would already be there. So- if the Liberals drop to say 18% then the NDP might be able to win but if they go lower than that then Ford will be more likely. If the Liberals increase a little if that comes from Ford then that is one thing but if it comes from the NDP Ford will win. This is a delicate level of support and distribution with a path for the NDP but advantage for Ford.

Of course a major Ford scandal would give the advantage to Horwath.

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Hey there Might Liberal -- the Liberal party is not going to place the province above its interests as a party. I actually think no party will ever do that as they always think they are the best choice. What you are suggesting is political suicide.

A party that does not think that the best interests of a jurisdiction are in its survival would not just stand down for an election -- they would disband.

Never mind that -- consider all the donations volunteers -- do you seriously think the Liberals would have an easy time getting people to support them in the future if they folded as you suggest now? They would be a laughing stock and an extremely poor future investment.

All parties are true believers -- it it idiotic to think otherwise.

Well like I said you are the only one on Babble who feels this way, so it says more about you than anyone else here.

You really know nothing about politics and waht it takes to be in that world.

It cannot say more about me -- I am not a party. The core of a party is extremely committed people. It is a huge investment, tons of work and sacrifice. You need to be a true believer to do that. Clearly you know absolutely squat about politics. The people on Babble are not the parties. They are the supporters -- or fans. This is not the first time you have the confused people who live the political party life and the fan clubs they have.

So just to help you with your poor comprehension -- I am not a true believer. I am a supporter. I have not given my life to a party or made the kind of sacrifice you don't even seem to be able to imagine. If others here have they are not saying so. Most of them would not waste their time here -- they are playing for real in the campaigns.

jerrym

With media asking Ford about the alleged stealing of Highway 407 data for use by 29 candidates to win PC nominations, this election could have an electoral explosion, if this turns out to be true. One reporter asked Ford "We have sources that tell us that 29 PC candidates spent over $20,000 in recruiting and paying international students $200 per trip to vote using names and information off of Highway 407 stolen data to have them vote at PC party nomination meetings in order to get the candidates elected as the party nominees. How would you feel if you found out that your name was used to do this?"

Ford responded by saying he had promptly responded by removing the one candidate who had been accused of taking the data. When a similar question was repeated, he said "Ask the candidates" and did not respond to any futher questions on the topic. 

This is not going away after this kind of response.  

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

DP

Pogo Pogo's picture

I generally agree with Sean so that is two.  Now it is your turn to tell us who agrees that a political party should gather volunteers, assemble an election team, raise millions of dollars only to look at the landscape at the beginning of the campaign and throw in the towel.

No one in positions of political power fears Ford like you assume they should.  They have been around long enough to see multiple versions of him come and go.  Yes they (Harris, Duplessis, Vanderzalm, Aberhardt and others) create havoc, but the life goes on.

Sean in Ottawa

jerrym wrote:

With media asking Ford about the alleged stealing of Highway 407 data for use by 29 candidates to win PC nominations, this election could have an electoral explosion, if this turns out to be true. One reporter asked Ford "We have sources that tell us that 29 PC candidates spent over $20,000 in recruiting and paying international students $200 per trip to vote using names and information off of Highway 407 stolen data to have them vote at PC party nomination meetings in order to get the candidates elected as the party nominees. How would you feel if you found out that your name was used to do this?"

Ford responded by saying he had promptly responded by removing the one candidate who had been accused of taking the data. When a similar question was repeated, he said "Ask the candidates" and did not respond to any futher questions on the topic. 

This is not going away after this kind of response.  

As I said in the other thread -- while a big deal it may not be a deal breaker. Conservatives look for different things from elected representatives than NDP and Liberals. I think Conservatives will forgive more so long as the party promises to be mean to those their voters hate and cut government and taxes. Conservatives do not need to be nice or ethical or likeable in the same way that left candidates must be. This is becuase the voters' objectives are quite different and so is their view of government.

A scandal that would destroy a Liberal or NDP campaign might make a smaller dent on a Conservative campaign.

 

Look at the history -- you have a history globally of right wing candidates getting away with scandals and winning much more often than left canddiates who usually end up being brought down by them. It is rare that a left candidate will have the word teflon applied to them. I think many Conservatives like to support an asshole -- for the mandate they want them to have.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Pogo wrote:

I generally agree with Sean so that is two.  Now it is your turn to tell us who agrees that a political party should gather volunteers, assemble an election team, raise millions of dollars only to look at the landscape at the beginning of the campaign and throw in the towel.

Ujjal Dosanjh in 2000

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

You really know nothing about politics and waht it takes to be in that world.

and you should brush up on your spelling.

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

You really know nothing about politics and waht it takes to be in that world.

and you should brush up on your spelling.

An obvious typo rather than a spelling mistake. But thank you so much for making it very clear exactly what kind of person you are. I do not even have to say it when you do that.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

 But thank you so much for making it very clear exactly what kind of person you are. I do not even have to say it when you do that.

Deflection, but then again you are writing this while facing a mirror.

 

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Pogo wrote:

I generally agree with Sean so that is two.  Now it is your turn to tell us who agrees that a political party should gather volunteers, assemble an election team, raise millions of dollars only to look at the landscape at the beginning of the campaign and throw in the towel.

Ujjal Dosanjh in 2000

Sorry I have been harsh. I really hate stupidity.

But please indulge us in how Ujjal Dosanjh had his party stand down in every riding. People need this education from you, oh wise one, since many of us think he went from provincial to federal and we missed the whole thing about him telling his entire party to give up and not run. I think we need to learn this from you.

Also, given that many people believe that provincial and federal parties do not always align directly, you will need to impart your wisdom that any person going from a provincial to a federal or visa versa is an example of a leader asking the previous party to stand down. We will need you to pontificate (or blather or vomit out) how Jean Charest asked the Conservatives to not run in any ridings when he went to Liberal provincial roles in Quebec. You probably should write some barf about other floor crossings being examples of whole parties standing down. We are waiting for your wisdom -- if it ever comes.

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

 But thank you so much for making it very clear exactly what kind of person you are. I do not even have to say it when you do that.

Deflection, but then again you are writing this while facing a mirror.

 

No really -- has nobody ever told you that only assholes engage in spelling flames and that obvious typos (reversed letters) are even lamer than spelling flames?

Makes me wonder if ew are engaging with a grade school twit.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Makes me wonder if ew are engaging with a grade school twit.

http://rabble.ca/comment/5417176#comment-5417176

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

If you are really that stupid

http://rabble.ca/comment/5416776#comment-5416776

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

So just to help you with your poor comprehension

http://rabble.ca/comment/5417091#comment-5417091

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Please read a book about logic.

http://rabble.ca/comment/5416076#comment-5416076

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
and you should brush up on your spelling.

Is that how he always spells it?  If so, it's a spelling thing.

Otherwise, it's a typing thing.

jerrym

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

jerrym wrote:

With media asking Ford about the alleged stealing of Highway 407 data for use by 29 candidates to win PC nominations, this election could have an electoral explosion, if this turns out to be true. One reporter asked Ford "We have sources that tell us that 29 PC candidates spent over $20,000 in recruiting and paying international students $200 per trip to vote using names and information off of Highway 407 stolen data to have them vote at PC party nomination meetings in order to get the candidates elected as the party nominees. How would you feel if you found out that your name was used to do this?"

Ford responded by saying he had promptly responded by removing the one candidate who had been accused of taking the data. When a similar question was repeated, he said "Ask the candidates" and did not respond to any futher questions on the topic. 

This is not going away after this kind of response.  

As I said in the other thread -- while a big deal it may not be a deal breaker. Conservatives look for different things from elected representatives than NDP and Liberals. I think Conservatives will forgive more so long as the party promises to be mean to those their voters hate and cut government and taxes. Conservatives do not need to be nice or ethical or likeable in the same way that left candidates must be. This is becuase the voters' objectives are quite different and so is their view of government.

A scandal that would destroy a Liberal or NDP campaign might make a smaller dent on a Conservative campaign.

 

Look at the history -- you have a history globally of right wing candidates getting away with scandals and winning much more often than left canddiates who usually end up being brought down by them. It is rare that a left candidate will have the word teflon applied to them. I think many Conservatives like to support an asshole -- for the mandate they want them to have.

This is not going away after this response simply meant that some in the media are going to continue to ask questions. Part of the media smell blood and will keep asking. It also depends on how the other parties deal with the issue. The PCs may ride it out. With victory less than a month away, the aphrodisiac of power is very seductive. 

On the other hand, the PC candidates who allegedly lost to the current election candidates may be no mood to go quietly into the good night. The internal fight could get very ugly.  But, then again, maybe not. After all, nothing happened to Patrick Brown candidacy, eh. 

Of course, the CBC covered the scandal in a manner that made it sound like only the single candidate was involved. If that is the way most coverage goes, then the PCs will be OK.

Sean in Ottawa

jerrym wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

jerrym wrote:

With media asking Ford about the alleged stealing of Highway 407 data for use by 29 candidates to win PC nominations, this election could have an electoral explosion, if this turns out to be true. One reporter asked Ford "We have sources that tell us that 29 PC candidates spent over $20,000 in recruiting and paying international students $200 per trip to vote using names and information off of Highway 407 stolen data to have them vote at PC party nomination meetings in order to get the candidates elected as the party nominees. How would you feel if you found out that your name was used to do this?"

Ford responded by saying he had promptly responded by removing the one candidate who had been accused of taking the data. When a similar question was repeated, he said "Ask the candidates" and did not respond to any futher questions on the topic. 

This is not going away after this kind of response.  

As I said in the other thread -- while a big deal it may not be a deal breaker. Conservatives look for different things from elected representatives than NDP and Liberals. I think Conservatives will forgive more so long as the party promises to be mean to those their voters hate and cut government and taxes. Conservatives do not need to be nice or ethical or likeable in the same way that left candidates must be. This is becuase the voters' objectives are quite different and so is their view of government.

A scandal that would destroy a Liberal or NDP campaign might make a smaller dent on a Conservative campaign.

 

Look at the history -- you have a history globally of right wing candidates getting away with scandals and winning much more often than left canddiates who usually end up being brought down by them. It is rare that a left candidate will have the word teflon applied to them. I think many Conservatives like to support an asshole -- for the mandate they want them to have.

This is not going away after this response simply meant that some in the media are going to continue to ask questions. Part of the media smell blood and will keep asking. It also depends on how the other parties deal with the issue. The PCs may ride it out. With victory less than a month away, the aphrodisiac of power is very seductive. 

On the other hand, the PC candidates who allegedly lost to the current election candidates may be no mood to go quietly into the good night. The internal fight could get very ugly.  But, then again, maybe not. After all, nothing happened to Patrick Brown candidacy, eh. 

Of course, the CBC covered the scandal in a manner that made it sound like only the single candidate was involved. If that is the way most coverage goes, then the PCs will be OK.

I agree with you that it will be a big story -- I just don't know if it will affect Conservative voters as much as people may expect. Will they care?

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Makes me wonder if ew are engaging with a grade school twit.

http://rabble.ca/comment/5417176#comment-5417176

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

If you are really that stupid

http://rabble.ca/comment/5416776#comment-5416776

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

So just to help you with your poor comprehension

http://rabble.ca/comment/5417091#comment-5417091

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Please read a book about logic.

http://rabble.ca/comment/5416076#comment-5416076

Nice summary -- would be more complete if you included your provocations but yeah -- pretty much indicates what I think of you now.

Only you forgot about the part where I said only assholes do typo flames which are lamer than spelling flames.

NorthReport

Very valid point Sean about how it will impact on Conservative voters

JKR

What would this election look like if ranked Instant Runoff Voting or PR was being used instead of single-member plurality (FPTP)? I think an NDP government would be the likely outcome if either of those systems were being used.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Makes me wonder if ew are engaging with a grade school twit.

http://rabble.ca/comment/5417176#comment-5417176

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

If you are really that stupid

http://rabble.ca/comment/5416776#comment-5416776

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

So just to help you with your poor comprehension

http://rabble.ca/comment/5417091#comment-5417091

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Please read a book about logic.

http://rabble.ca/comment/5416076#comment-5416076

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Nice summary -- would be more complete if you included your provocations but yeah -- pretty much indicates what I think of you now.

Only you forgot about the part where I said only assholes do typo flames which are lamer than spelling flames.

http://rabble.ca/comment/5417216#comment-5417216

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Anybody know where we're gonna get some more polls to talk about?  

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Like it or not, Ontario Liberal Party donors and Ontario taxpayers have paid for the Liberal campaign. Withdrawing all of the Liberal candidates would be a fraud on both of these categories of people.

NorthReport

There will be Additional polls out on Monday if not before

NorthReport
jerrym

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

jerrym wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

jerrym wrote:

With media asking Ford about the alleged stealing of Highway 407 data for use by 29 candidates to win PC nominations, this election could have an electoral explosion, if this turns out to be true. One reporter asked Ford "We have sources that tell us that 29 PC candidates spent over $20,000 in recruiting and paying international students $200 per trip to vote using names and information off of Highway 407 stolen data to have them vote at PC party nomination meetings in order to get the candidates elected as the party nominees. How would you feel if you found out that your name was used to do this?"

Ford responded by saying he had promptly responded by removing the one candidate who had been accused of taking the data. When a similar question was repeated, he said "Ask the candidates" and did not respond to any futher questions on the topic. 

This is not going away after this kind of response.  

A scandal that would destroy a Liberal or NDP campaign might make a smaller dent on a Conservative campaign.

Look at the history -- you have a history globally of right wing candidates getting away with scandals and winning much more often than left canddiates who usually end up being brought down by them. It is rare that a left candidate will have the word teflon applied to them. I think many Conservatives like to support an asshole -- for the mandate they want them to have.

This is not going away after this response simply meant that some in the media are going to continue to ask questions. Part of the media smell blood and will keep asking. It also depends on how the other parties deal with the issue. The PCs may ride it out. With victory less than a month away, the aphrodisiac of power is very seductive. 

I agree with you that it will be a big story -- I just don't know if it will affect Conservative voters as much as people may expect. Will they care?

Whoever did this for whatever reason used a well-placed time-bomb. The question is whether the time-bomb will fizzle or not. The question about using international students allegedly paid $200 for each time they voted at a PC meeting to help win 29 PC candidate nominations was asked just hours after provincial candidate nominations closed so any potential  candidates removed from the election cannot be replaced. By using specific numbers for the amount paid and candidate numbers, it makes the allegations sound more legitimate than if the word 'some' had been used. The word "international" suggests that this is due to foreigners, and there is a part of the Conservative base that already thinks there are too many foreigners in the country now.

I called this a potential electoral explosion because in a FPTP system, a change of several percentage points in the vote totals can make an enormous different in the seat count.  In the last election, for example, the Tories won 31.25% of the vote while the Liberals won 38.65% of the vote. Yet, the seat count was massively different: 58 Liberals t0 28 Conservatives. If we concede that the Conservative vote is unlikely to drop below Hudak's 31% because he ran a terrible campaign, there are clearly sufficient voters who are now supporting the PCs not because they always have and will but because they seem the best choice to them at the moment. A significant number of these people are susceptible to changing their opinion. 

If the allegation of PC party nomination fraud bears out, part of their own base will be upset because they will see it as proof that foreigners (in this case international students) have too much control in the country. Remember Tanya Granic Allen was making statements along these lines and she got significant support for PC leader. So she could be the one throwing the time-bomb after holding a grudge against Ford for booting her out of the election after she was his kingmaker. It could be Patrick Brown as suggested above, but he was the one who was pushing attracting visible minorities to the party. Even if those Conservatives who are anti-immigrant/visible minorities  are unwilling to vote for the more immigrant/refugee friendly NDP and Liberals, they may very well not vote if the allegations appear to be true. Others will simply see this as fraud that means the PCs cannot be trusted with power. 

Remember, Hillary was 10% ahead in the polls just after her nomination and 6% ahead when Comey dropped his bombshell less than two weeks before the election. So many who voted for Trump were not wedded to him no matter what.

On the other hand, could this benefit Ford? Yes. If the allegations turn out to be false or unproven, he will be able to turn aside further damaging evidence against him personally or the party and its policies by saying that it's just another example of the so-called liberal MSM or their political allies out to get conservatives, just like the Highway 407 data scandal.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

progressive17 wrote:

Like it or not, Ontario Liberal Party donors and Ontario taxpayers have paid for the Liberal campaign. Withdrawing all of the Liberal candidates would be a fraud on both of these categories of people.

How many times has Trump done something and people saying "This is simply not done", he does it anyways and then lives to fight another day.

Saying "It's simply not done" is the reason Ford is leading in the polls and Trump is where he is at. There is a mood to blow up the system and people are tired of the status quo.

In today's political climate the rules are, there are no rules. And Trump has shown us that.

Just today from Toronto Star

"Almost 15 years after the Liberals took office, Wynne know she’s in the political fight of her life — even at home in the riding of Don Valley West — and that her party faces a massive defeat next month."

So instead of being reduced to maybe 1 or 2 seats, and facing a humilating wipe out, I think most Liberals would understand the concept of bowing out gracefully and putting what is best for  the Province. But not having a vote split.

If it was the choice of Ford being in power or the NDP, I'm sure most Liberals would choose the NDP to be in power. So the only thing to do is withdraw all the candidates.

Pages