Andrea Horwath's fate on Friday the 13th

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robbie_dee
Andrea Horwath's fate on Friday the 13th

Quote:
The New Democrats’ barometer for success is not the same. If they add even a couple of seats to their existing 21, Ms. Horwath will declare victory. The problem is that with the Liberals making a strong pitch for their voters – and at least a couple of their downtown Toronto MPPs perceived to be in trouble, along with one or two caucus members who recently won by-elections – the NDP could lose ground.

If that happens, the party will face an identity crisis. The rather abrupt shift under Ms. Horwath toward pocketbook populism, with which many of its members were uncomfortable from the get-go, would be deemed a failure. New Democrats would then have to decide whether to try to return to their traditional values, presumably under a new leader.

An additional problem for the New Democrats after election day could be money; based on their inability to compete financially with the other parties during this campaign, they would be hard-pressed to afford another one soon. And the other party that winds up in opposition could have major fundraising challenges as well – a particular problem in a minority legislature that could fall at any time.

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/each-party-leader-must-face... and Mail[/url]

At this point I am expecting a Liberal minority with just 2-3 fewer Liberal and NDP seats and 4-5 more Conservatives, although I still think the Conservatives could surprise.

There are polls with the NDP at 26% of the vote and others with the NDP at just 18% so I just don't know what to believe. Andrea's late campaign itinerary suggests she believes the good polls. But frankly even if the NDP does better than in 2011 (and with such a result, likely pushes the Cons ahead), I STILL want Andrea Horwath to resign. I'd like to see some senior staff turnover, too. I think this election has been a missed opportunity - a terrible platform and an unimaginative campaign. Thoughts?

terrytowel

NDP leader Andrea Horwath says she doesn't regret toppling Liberal government

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/10/ndp-leader-andrea-horwath-says-she-...

Unionist

I wonder if she'll mind being toppled. I won't. Corruption fighters belong in the RCMP.

 

terrytowel

Will there be a 901 movement within the NDP. 9:01 p.m., one minute after the election and precisely when the movement plans to begin the process of putting pressure on Andrea to step aside?

josh

More likely that Hudak gets the boot if he winds with fewer seats than the Liberals.

terrytowel

Before the election everyone on this board said two of the three parties will be holding leadership contests, which means no election in the future if it is again another minority.

Which of the two parties will be holding new leadership bids?

nicky

The NDP has always been less ruthless with its leaders than your party Terry.

I think there is a lot of admiration for Andrea in the party, having clawed back from the sabotage of the Group of 34 (only 5 of whom were actually mebers of the NDP, something you won't read in the Star.) 

If she maintains the same seat or popular vote levels I think she will be around for a while.

Even if she is to step down the party will give her sufficient time and space to do that with dignity. One thing we are not is Liberals.

 

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
The NDP has always been less ruthless with its leaders than your party Terry.

I think there is a lot of admiration for Andrea in the party, having clawed back from the sabotage of the Group of 34 (only 5 of whom were actually mebers of the NDP, something you won't read in the Star.) 

If she maintains the same seat or popular vote levels I think she will be around for a while.

Even if she is to step down the party will give her sufficient time and space to do that with dignity. One thing we are not is Liberals.

Further to that, if the election results in a minority government, Horwath isn't going anywhere and the NDP knows that.

terrytowel

nicky wrote:

The NDP has always been less ruthless with its leaders than your party Terry.

Independents don't have a party

Ciabatta2

Assuming NDP loses seats in total:

Any majority scenario, Horwath goes.

Minority PC, Horwath stays for sake of stability but not long term as she'll be tagged as the reason the PCs got elected.

Minority Liberal, where NDP loses a number (or all) of Toronto seats, Horwath stays because the caucus remnants will likely be of her ilk and there is no successor in the wings.

Minority Liberal, where NDP Toronto caucus is intact, Horwath with a "ok, if the Wynne and her budget are so great, you deal with them" bow.  Plus caucus would be unmanageable for her.

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

@terry.... is that you outing yourself as Senator?

Tongue out

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

If the higher recent polls turn out to be correct, and the ONDP gets over 25% of the popular vote, they will probably pick up seats. If they do gain significantly in both votes and seats, Horwath's judgement will have been vindicated, and she won't be going anywhere, no matter how loudly the gang of 34 and their friends whine.

On the other hand, if the lower recent polls turn out to be correct, and the ONDP loses vote share and seats, I expect she will resign soon, regardless of what the configuration of seats turns out to be.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Horwath is likely to increase the NDP's standing when the ballots are counted tomorrow. Why would/should she step down after gaining seats? 

josh

knownothing wrote:

Horwath is likely to increase the NDP's standing when the ballots are counted tomorrow. Why would/should she step down after gaining seats? 

If that's the case, she wouldn't.

Jacob Two-Two

Yeah I think she's going to gain as well. As far as I can see, she's been having a good campaign.

Debater

But Horwath is supposed to be in contention to become Premier or finish at least 2nd and pick up a large number of seats.  If she only gains a few seats, shouldn't she have to resign?

And if Hudak becomes Premier, will NDP supporters feel it was worth it just to get a couple more seats?

mark_alfred

It's looking very good.  According to Ipsos, Horwath is taking votes from the Conservatives.  Certainly a good thing.

takeitslowly

why would anyone be worried about a Hudak minority?

I hope the election will be a success for the NDP tomorrow, it will proved to be a good case study for Thomas Mulcair. Who knows, maybe the gang of 34 were actually intending to help Horwath by making it seems like the NDP is no longer a leftist party.

Debater

A Hudak minority can still cause a lot of damage, and the NDP will be blamed for it in certain quarters, as Elizabeth May has already started to do in the press release she sent out yesterday.

And if the NDP finishes in 3rd, it indicates that Mulcair will probably finish in 3rd in 2015, too.

takeitslowly

I don think the Ontario electon result will necessarily translate to the federal election result. The quebec dynamic and the superficial appeal of Trudeau make the federal election a bit difference. Wynne is a weak liberal leader , she reminds me of Iggy, too acaedmic.

 

But the Ontario election result will provide teachable moments, perhaps, on what the NDP needs to do to appeal to new voters. Who knows? Maybe it is a good thing for the NDP to have the same group of 34 to denounce Thomas Mulcair , it will shake off the NDP image of appearing "socialist"

 

And the only reason a Hudak minority will do alot of damage is because the liberals will enable them.

And we all know by now Elizabeth May is a liberal in a green clothing. Why would anyone cares what she says unless they are a liberal themselves?

takeitslowly

Indeed, it would be like dumping Jack Layton because he didnt beat Stephen Harper.

Jacob Two-Two

Debater wrote:

But Horwath is supposed to be in contention to become Premier or finish at least 2nd and pick up a large number of seats.  If she only gains a few seats, shouldn't she have to resign?

And if Hudak becomes Premier, will NDP supporters feel it was worth it just to get a couple more seats?

Wouldn't that be brilliant? Dumping your leader for increasing the seat count but not enough? You'd end up with a different person every election. Nobody's that stupid. Oh wait, except for the federal Liberals. But they're a cautionary tale if ever there was one. Don't be that party.

And the only way Hudak can possibly become Premier is if Wynne rolls over and gives it to him. It won't have anything to do with the NDP.

Lord Palmerston

Leader of the Official Opposition!

mark_alfred

Premier Andrea Horwath!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

A Hudak minority can still cause a lot of damage, and the NDP will be blamed for it in certain quarters, as Elizabeth May has already started to do in the press release she sent out yesterday.

And if the NDP finishes in 3rd, it indicates that Mulcair will probably finish in 3rd in 2015, too.

Are you saying the ONDP owes it to the voters not to try to gain seats?

It's not like there are any significant areas where progressive things would come of ONDP voters supporting the(almost always right-wing)OLP candidate.

onlinediscountanvils

takeitslowly wrote:
And the only reason a Hudak minority will do alot of damage is because the liberals will enable them.

Don't forget the NDP.

Trevormkidd

Debater wrote:

A Hudak minority can still cause a lot of damage,

That may be so.  What we do know is that the liberal government HAS caused a lot of damage: eHealth, the cancellled gas plants, ornge.  Massive scandals, tons of money wasted, and at least 12 deaths in the case of the latter.  That includes 4 deaths a year and half after the scandal came to light, and after the liberals brought in a hand-picked person and claimed he had cleaned up the mess, yet there are still 17 labour code violation charges surrounding that deadly crash.

I believe that there should be consequences for actions.  I believe that the people on wall street should have faced severe penalites for their actions leading up to the financial crash.  I also believe that there should be consequences for governments who mismanage the public trust as badly as this government has (and yes, I am being extremely kind with those words).

I am just one person and all I can do is refuse to reward corruption and mismanagement with my vote.

Some people may complain that my doing so may lead to the Conservatives coming to power, but I don't care.  History tells me that Conservatives are bound to come to power now and then.  I don't see how they would have been any less likely to come to power with an election a year from now.  Personally I consider the long term consequences of rewarding corrupt governments to be worse then the short term consequences of a (possible) Hudak minority.

Further, the voters across this province are given a choice of who to vote for.  If the concern of Liberal voters is Hudak they can choose to vote for the NDP.  But don't me that I am in the wrong because I will not vote for their corrupt party (even though they will not vote for the alternative that is not corrupt).

Quote:
and the NDP will be blamed for it in certain quarters,

So what?  Certain quarters will blame with NDP for anything.  The NDP didn't force the Liberals to mismanage their responsibility.  The NDP didn't force the Liberals to create a scandal filled incompetent government.  

Quote:
as Elizabeth May has already started to do in the press release she sent out yesterday.

Elizabeth May's statement was a complete embarassment coming from a federal party leader.  

ProfShawn

Unionist wrote:

I wonder if she'll mind being toppled. I won't. Corruption fighters belong in the RCMP.

 

 

Amen to that!

ProfShawn

Trevormkidd wrote:

Debater wrote:

A Hudak minority can still cause a lot of damage,

That may be so.  What we do know is that the liberal government HAS caused a lot of damage: eHealth, the cancellled gas plants, ornge.  Massive scandals, tons of money wasted, and at least 12 deaths in the case of the latter.  That includes 4 deaths a year and half after the scandal came to light, and after the liberals brought in a hand-picked person and claimed he had cleaned up the mess, yet there are still 17 labour code violation charges surrounding that deadly crash.

I believe that there should be consequences for actions.  I believe that the people on wall street should have faced severe penalites for their actions leading up to the financial crash.  I also believe that there should be consequences for governments who mismanage the public trust as badly as this government has (and yes, I am being extremely kind with those words).

I am just one person and all I can do is refuse to reward corruption and mismanagement with my vote.

Some people may complain that my doing so may lead to the Conservatives coming to power, but I don't care.  History tells me that Conservatives are bound to come to power now and then.  I don't see how they would have been any less likely to come to power with an election a year from now.  Personally I consider the long term consequences of rewarding corrupt governments to be worse then the short term consequences of a (possible) Hudak minority.

Further, the voters across this province are given a choice of who to vote for.  If the concern of Liberal voters is Hudak they can choose to vote for the NDP.  But don't me that I am in the wrong because I will not vote for their corrupt party (even though they will not vote for the alternative that is not corrupt).

Quote:
and the NDP will be blamed for it in certain quarters,

So what?  Certain quarters will blame with NDP for anything.  The NDP didn't force the Liberals to mismanage their responsibility.  The NDP didn't force the Liberals to create a scandal filled incompetent government.  

Quote:
as Elizabeth May has already started to do in the press release she sent out yesterday.

Elizabeth May's statement was a complete embarassment coming from a federal party leader.  

Trevor, Tim Hudak is a right to work Conservative, him coming to power is a disaster and if it happens people like you and Andrea Horwath will be to blame.  Leave the Scandal fighting, populist bullshit for the right wingers.

NorthReport

Folks, time to open your eyes, as a reliable and professional pollster out today, shows the Liberals falling like a stone.

Can't wait unrtil tomorrow nite, when Ontario puts the Wynne Liberals in the penalty box, and the gas plants scandal inquiry starts in ernest.

Wouldn't it be nice, if not only were the lying corrupt Liberals given a game misconduct, but they were never ever to form government again.  

ProfShawn wrote:

Trevormkidd wrote:

Debater wrote:

A Hudak minority can still cause a lot of damage,

That may be so.  What we do know is that the liberal government HAS caused a lot of damage: eHealth, the cancellled gas plants, ornge.  Massive scandals, tons of money wasted, and at least 12 deaths in the case of the latter.  That includes 4 deaths a year and half after the scandal came to light, and after the liberals brought in a hand-picked person and claimed he had cleaned up the mess, yet there are still 17 labour code violation charges surrounding that deadly crash.

I believe that there should be consequences for actions.  I believe that the people on wall street should have faced severe penalites for their actions leading up to the financial crash.  I also believe that there should be consequences for governments who mismanage the public trust as badly as this government has (and yes, I am being extremely kind with those words).

I am just one person and all I can do is refuse to reward corruption and mismanagement with my vote.

Some people may complain that my doing so may lead to the Conservatives coming to power, but I don't care.  History tells me that Conservatives are bound to come to power now and then.  I don't see how they would have been any less likely to come to power with an election a year from now.  Personally I consider the long term consequences of rewarding corrupt governments to be worse then the short term consequences of a (possible) Hudak minority.

Further, the voters across this province are given a choice of who to vote for.  If the concern of Liberal voters is Hudak they can choose to vote for the NDP.  But don't me that I am in the wrong because I will not vote for their corrupt party (even though they will not vote for the alternative that is not corrupt).

Quote:
and the NDP will be blamed for it in certain quarters,

So what?  Certain quarters will blame with NDP for anything.  The NDP didn't force the Liberals to mismanage their responsibility.  The NDP didn't force the Liberals to create a scandal filled incompetent government.  

Quote:
as Elizabeth May has already started to do in the press release she sent out yesterday.

Elizabeth May's statement was a complete embarassment coming from a federal party leader.  

Trevor, Tim Hudak is a right to work Conservative, him coming to power is a disaster and if it happens people like you and Andrea Horwath will be to blame.  Leave the Scandal fighting, populist bullshit for the right wingers.

Aristotleded24

ProfShawn wrote:
Tim Hudak is a right to work Conservative, him coming to power is a disaster and if it happens people like you and Andrea Horwath will be to blame.  Leave the Scandal fighting, populist bullshit for the right wingers.

That's a brilliant strategy. The left should never address scandals or mis-spent money or ever point out when governments spend money in an untrustworty manner. They should leave that field to the right wing, because that way people will have faith in government spending and they will all vote to keep the right-wingers out!

Trevormkidd

ProfShawn wrote:
Trevor, Tim Hudak is a right to work Conservative, him coming to power is a disaster and if it happens people like you and Andrea Horwath will be to blame.

The thing about a democracy is that if one government enacts certain legislation that the people do not want then a subsequent government can reverse it.

Quote:
Leave the Scandal fighting, populist bullshit for the right wingers.

If people on the left feel that fighting against billions of dollars being wasted is for the right to deal with; that fighting against massive scandal and mismanagement is for the right to deal with; and that it is for the right to be fighting against such extreme incompentence and neglect that there is 17 labour law charges surrounding the deaths of 4 workers at a government funded company in which the government installed a new leader and claimed that the problems were fixed.  If the left feels that those issues are not issues they should give a damn about then they don't deserve votes.  Thankfully the NDP (and many on the left, hopefully most) feels differently.

NorthReport

You can read defeat all over their comments, and unfortunately not everyone loses gracefully.

Debater

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
Debater wrote:

But Horwath is supposed to be in contention to become Premier or finish at least 2nd and pick up a large number of seats.  If she only gains a few seats, shouldn't she have to resign?

And if Hudak becomes Premier, will NDP supporters feel it was worth it just to get a couple more seats?

Wouldn't that be brilliant? Dumping your leader for increasing the seat count but not enough? You'd end up with a different person every election. Nobody's that stupid. Oh wait, except for the federal Liberals. But they're a cautionary tale if ever there was one. Don't be that party.

And the only way Hudak can possibly become Premier is if Wynne rolls over and gives it to him. It won't have anything to do with the NDP.

Stupid?  The Federal Liberals are the most successful party in Canadian history. (maybe not recently mind you, but historically).  And they have given some of their leaders more than one chance (eg. John Turner).  It wasn't possible with Dion or Iggy, though.  Anyway, we are talking about Ontario Provincial politics here.

And most parties DO dump their leaders if they fail to gain seats or only gain a few when they were expected to win or at least finish 2nd.  Look at Ontario politics.  Eves was only given one election by the PC's.  Tory was only given one election by the PC's.  And look at other provinces.  Dix was only given one election by the BC NDP.  And Carole Taylor was dispensed with pretty quickly after not winning as many seats as hoped, wasn't she?

There were threads here earlier in the year predicting that Horwath would be the next Premier of Ontario.  If she doesn't become Premier, she should be replaced.  And that goes double if she finishes 3rd.  Having an election just to pick up a couple more seats is acceptable?

Btw, you sound like the Federal NDP when you say if we get Premier Hudak it will not be the NDP's fault.  Just like the Satellite Offices Expenses scandal is not the NDP's fault, either.  You complain about the Liberals and the Conservatives making excuses, but is the NDP ever responsible for anything?  Is it always someone else's fault?  Seriously.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Some people make very optimistic predictions.  They don't happen.  It is the leaders fault.  That seems a little far fetched.

Rokossovsky

Aristotleded24 wrote:

ProfShawn wrote:
Tim Hudak is a right to work Conservative, him coming to power is a disaster and if it happens people like you and Andrea Horwath will be to blame.  Leave the Scandal fighting, populist bullshit for the right wingers.

That's a brilliant strategy. The left should never address scandals or mis-spent money or ever point out when governments spend money in an untrustworty manner. They should leave that field to the right wing, because that way people will have faith in government spending and they will all vote to keep the right-wingers out!

Yeah. Lets all shut up about Rob Ford scandals.

Speaking of right to work Conservatives and scandals, the Liberals are running one against Prue in Beaches East-York apparently: 5 Things Liberal Voters Should Know About Arthur Potts

Quote:
Arthur Potts is a former executive director, and long-time spokesperson for “Merit Ontario (aka Independent Contractors Association, Open Shop Contractors Association) a benign-sounding organization that advocates for right-to-work legislation, and has worked closely with Tim Hudak and Mike Harris for more about 15 years.

Arthur Potts is on record saying that Mike Harris’ Conservative union-busting legislation was not harsh enough, because “no non-construction employers have been able to escape their bargaining relationships with the trades”

Jacob Two-Two

Funny that you've already decided who's to blame for Hudak coming to power despite the fact that it hasn't happened and we don't know how it would if he did.

If Horwath begged Wynne to enter a coalition with her and she refused, passed the Premier's seat to Hudak and then voted to support his budget, would that still be the NDP's fault? I bet it would. I bet the NDP could have no seats at all and you would still think they were responsible for everything bad that happens.

If Hudak gets a majority then that's on the voters. They made a choice. If he doesn't then there's no reason he should become Premier unless Wynne or Horwath allow it. Why don't we wait to see who's actually at fault before we get out our hanging ropes, assuming this hypothetical situation even comes to pass.

Wilf Day

Michael Moriarity wrote:

If the higher recent polls turn out to be correct, and the ONDP gets over 25% of the popular vote, they will probably pick up seats. If they do gain significantly in both votes and seats, Horwath's judgement will have been vindicated, and she won't be going anywhere, no matter how loudly the gang of 34 and their friends whine.

This thread is premature, folks.

takeitslowly wrote:
Who knows, maybe the gang of 34 were actually intending to help Horwath by making it seems like the NDP is no longer a leftist party.

That letter was so mysterious, that I've been wondering the same thing.

Jacob Two-Two

It has kinda baffled me as being a seemingly pointless maneuver. I must admit, it makes more sense as theatre than it did as a straightforward statement of concern.

Rokossovsky

It reads like a press release. Then it ends up in the press.

Caissa

I look forward to the resignation of another conservative NDP leader.

Unionist

Wilf Day wrote:

This thread is premature, folks.

Or, it might be way too late.

Would have been nice to see NDP supporters discussing Horwath's fate the instant she started arbitrarily and despotically changing party policy. That assumes some tradition of internal democracy, of course.

Aristotleded24

Regardless of where things end up, and whether or not Horwath stays on (assuming the worst case predictions for the NDP pan out) the NDP has reached a critical point in its development. Up until now, an NDP vote was great at "sending a message to Queen's Park," when Hampton and Horwath both had success in picking up by-election wins, but the record of both leaders in a general election where general themes were important was mixed. Regardless of who the leader is, it's time for the NDP to take the next step, have a frank and honest conversation with Ontarians about the current shape of their province, and where the province needs to go in the time ahead. It's big picture time, and building a campaign around gimmicks like removing HST from home hydro or cutting auto insurance are no longer sufficient.

robbie_dee

Bump

Doug

I think she probably gets to stay if she wants. Same or a tiny bit better result in seats and an improved share of the popular vote. Toronto New Democrats do have reason to be annoyed but it may be fixable when the Liberal majority turns out to be not as progressive as advertised.

terrytowel

I think Andrea is safe, as she increased her seat count and the popular vote

josh

terrytowel wrote:

I think Andrea is safe, as she increased her seat count and the popular vote

Agree, but seat count remains to be seen.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Regardless of where things end up, and whether or not Horwath stays on (assuming the worst case predictions for the NDP pan out) the NDP has reached a critical point in its development. Up until now, an NDP vote was great at "sending a message to Queen's Park," when Hampton and Horwath both had success in picking up by-election wins, but the record of both leaders in a general election where general themes were important was mixed. Regardless of who the leader is, it's time for the NDP to take the next step, have a frank and honest conversation with Ontarians about the current shape of their province, and where the province needs to go in the time ahead. It's big picture time, and building a campaign around gimmicks like removing HST from home hydro or cutting auto insurance are no longer sufficient.

Amen. In this new legislature, the NDP will have almost as many seats as the Cons. The party must be the left-opposition to the Libs and propose real, progressive, social-democratic solutions. Hold Wynne on her claim that she is a progressive. While I think Wynne, as a person, is left leaning, the Liberals and their corporate paymasters do not give me much confidence that Wynne will govern as she has campaigned. While the Libs may not implement crushing Hudak-style austerity, and they may not go on a privatization bent, they will disapoint the people in downtown Toronto and other progressives who voted for them. The NDP must present themselves as the left-wing alternative to the Liberals for these people. But, it must also continue to fight against the graft, waste, incompetence, corruption, and deceit that has charaterized Liberal governments across Canada and throughout history. It must also consolidate the gains it has made in the medium-sized and working-class cities of Ontario by fighting against "progressive" polices that are paid for on the back of working people though stealthly, regressive taxes, fees, and charges.

takeitslowly

II am not worried about Andrea's fate as much as I am worried about the fate of Canadians. Are we always going to have to live under the lib con two party system? 

theleftyinvestor

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Regardless of where things end up, and whether or not Horwath stays on (assuming the worst case predictions for the NDP pan out) the NDP has reached a critical point in its development. Up until now, an NDP vote was great at "sending a message to Queen's Park," when Hampton and Horwath both had success in picking up by-election wins, but the record of both leaders in a general election where general themes were important was mixed. Regardless of who the leader is, it's time for the NDP to take the next step, have a frank and honest conversation with Ontarians about the current shape of their province, and where the province needs to go in the time ahead. It's big picture time, and building a campaign around gimmicks like removing HST from home hydro or cutting auto insurance are no longer sufficient.

Thirded.

Is an automatic leadership review triggered by the stagnant result? I would totally rejoin the NDP in order to vote against her leadership.

NorthReport

Yup, the ONDP should turf their most successful leader in decades. Wink

ONDP Recent Political History 

Date / Event / Leader / Seats / Seats - Change / Popular Vote / Popular Vote Change

2014 / GE / Horwath / 22 seats / Up 5 seats / 25% / Up 2%

2011 / GE / Horwath / 17 seats / Up 10 seats / 23% / Up 6% 

2007 / GE / Hampton / 7 seats / No Change / 17% / Up 2% 

2003 / GE / Hampton / 7 seats / ......... / 15%

 

 

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