Is a By-Election Loss in Sudbury the Beginning of the Downward Spiral for the Wynne Liberals?

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NorthReport
Is a By-Election Loss in Sudbury the Beginning of the Downward Spiral for the Wynne Liberals?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Just doing a little "herding" (see Nate Silver) analysis of the last provincial election in Ontario.

Good luck with that.

Debater

Here we go again.

Why not wait until a week from now when the by-election takes place to see who wins first?

If the Wynne Liberals lose it then you can post your propaganda predicting that it means the end of Wynne for all time.

Until then, why clutter up the board with another thread predicting an outcome that hasn't happened yet?  Remember last year's Ontario Election and your daily predictions of Kathleen Wynne's defeat via Ipsos Reid? Laughing

NorthReport

Just doing a little "herding" (see Nate Silver) analysis of the last provincial election in Ontario on June 12, 2014.

Actual Results L - 39%, P - 31%, N - 24%

Pollster / Liberals / Dif / PCs / Dif / NDP / Dif / Total Error

EKOS / 31% / 8% / 33% /  2% / 20% / 4% / 14%

Ipsos Reid / 33% / 6% / 34% / 3% / 27% / 24% / 3% / 12% - so far Ipsos Reid is the most accurate 

 

 

NorthReport

Just doing a little "herding" (see Nate Silver) analysis of the last provincial election in Ontario on June 12, 2014. 

Debater, you and others, have been saying, and saying, and saying, how many times now, that Ipsos Reid was the least accurate of all the pollsters in the last Ontario provincial election, when actually it was EKOS that is the most inaccurate of the 4 polling companies in the study.

The resulting statistics do not back up your comments. Why is that? 

Is it because you do not understand Nate Silver's work?

Or is it because you do understand his work but......... I'll let you fill in the blanks.

Anyway this is the reason Nate Silver incorporates "herding" into his aggregator calculations.

 

Actual Results L - 39%, P - 31%, N - 24%

Pollster / Liberals / Dif / PCs / Dif / NDP / Dif / Total Percentile Error

EKOS / 31% / 8% / 33% /  2% / 20% / 4% / 14%

Ipsos Reid / 33% / 6% / 34% / 3% / 27% / 24% / 3% / 12%  

Forum / 40% / 1% / 36% / 5% / 19% / 5% / 11%

Abacus / 35% / 4% / 33% / 2% / 26% / 24% / 2% / 8%

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
Here we go again.

Why not wait until a week from now when the by-election takes place to see who wins first?

Strangely enough, I agree with Debater on this.

NorthReport

Says someone who keeps saying it is good for the NDP to be punished and dropped into 3rd place. Hummm......

adma

Honestly: isn't there a way to express that a Liberal loss in Sudbury is *not* a given, without sounding all Debater about it?

nicky

I made a suggestion a while back that the moderators amend thread topics to remove unduly partisan or results-oriented titles. They are irritating even when they promote the NDP.

Debater

adma wrote:

Honestly: isn't there a way to express that a Liberal loss in Sudbury is *not* a given, without sounding all Debater about it?

Adma, what does 'sounding all Debater about it' mean?

I'm actually pretty measured in my election prediction analysis.  You and I discussed this back at the time of the Whitby-Oshawa by-election where I pointed out that I rarely make predictions of a victory for a party, particularly in a close race.  I have not made any predictions in recent elections, and I'm not predicting a win here, either.  I said that the Liberals were likely to finish ahead of the NDP in Whitby, and they did.  That was based on objective observation of the polls & the reports from the ground.  But I did not predict the Liberals would beat the Conservatives because I always thought the Cons had a good chance of retaining it, which they did.

What I actually do is look at the data and the trends and summarize where it appears to be going.  As I said above, I don't think we can know who will win the Sudbury by-election.  Some of the polling (eg. Oracle) and some of the analysts (eg. Eric Grenier) have the riding Leaning Liberal at the moment.

But we won't know until next week.

NorthReport

Good point adma, and thanks.

adma wrote:

Honestly: isn't there a way to express that a Liberal loss in Sudbury is *not* a given, without sounding all Debater about it?

swallow

Is the crushing defeat of the Wynne goverment in 2018 the beginning of the end for Prime Minister Trudeau's government in Ottawa? And does the re-election of President Rodham-Clinton in 2020 mean that there's no hope for a fourth Putin presidency in Russia? And are those really Albertan troops crossing the border into Canada on the tenth anniversary of Czar Prentice's declaration of independence? And what will the inevitable war in trans-Dniestrian Scarborough mean for the NDP's chances of regaining the Toronto mayoral race in 2185? 

Winston

The answer to the all of swallow's questions (and this thread) is probably "no".

Betteridge's Law of Headlines

Geoff

Incorrect: "Is a By-Election Loss in Sudbury the Beginning of the Downward Spiral for the Wynne Liberals?"                                       

Correct:   "Is a By-Election Win for the Liberals in Sudbury the Beginning of the Downward Spiral for the NDP?"

I suppose we could quibble over the use of "beginning" in the second instance, but you get the point.  Fellow New Democrats, let's at least be honest with ourselves.

Unionist

So, who won the Sudbury byelection? Anyone know?

 

ajaykumar

Interesting spin. 

Unionist

ajaykumar wrote:

Interesting spin. 

Thanks, ajay. Didn't even know he was running.

ajaykumar

These might be  better spins.Did aliens help Liberals Win in Sudbury? Are UFOs behind liberal win? What about extraterrestrial endorsement of the OLP? Bigfoot?

MegB

Okay, enough. Closing for silliness.

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