Final Debate Ontario Election Sun May 27 2018 @ 6:30 PM

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NorthReport
Final Debate Ontario Election Sun May 27 2018 @ 6:30 PM

Well it seems most, if not all, of the right wing forecasters have their seat predictions out showing Doug Ford with about a 20 seat lead over Andrea Horwath for the upcoming Ontario election.

The PCs have substantially dropped, and the NDP has made a remarkable rise in the polls, since the beginning of the campaign, but if the current forecasts are accurate, the NDP still needs to pick up another 10 seats from the PCs to win.

What does Andrea have to do during this last debate to continue the NDP climb in support and help to win the election on Jun 7th, 2018?  

NorthReport

2 hours to go!

NorthReport
Misfit Misfit's picture

Comments from a Twitter indicate Horwath is cracking under pressure and that Kathleen Wynne is dominating. And Foug Ford doesn't belong there. Early comments

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Misfit wrote:

Comments from a Twitter indicate Horwath is cracking under pressure and that Kathleen Wynne is dominating. And Foug Ford doesn't belong there. Early comments

Whose Twitter? The OLP's?

quizzical

i listened quickly. Ford was accusing the the ndp of being fascist. i opted back out.

Ciabatta2

Wynne was the definite winner.  Horwath didn't crack but she did not do herself any favours. She missed a number of knock chances.  Ford, well, how he does doesn't matter - no one watching this is considering voting for him or not voting for him anyway.

Wynne looks and sounds the most like a Premier.  But I've always wondered if that's mental bias code for not sounding working class.

Enough voters will be swayed back to Wynne and the media narrative will flip to Liberal momentum with two weeks to go.  Will it get her second place?  I don't know. But this pretty much solidifies a PC  majority IMHO.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

I just watched the whole thing (unusual for me) and my impressions are:

  1. Andrea did not crack at all, rather she maintained the on-message presentation that she has been using for the whole campaign.
  2. Wynne came across as the best debater, which I think she clearly is, in this competition, but it doesn't matter a bit, because nobody thinks she has a chance of winning.
  3. Doug Ford came across as the ignoramus that we all know he is. In my opinion he lost votes rather than gaining them.

My conclusion is that the NDP has an excellent chance of forming the next government of Ontario, and I sure hope they use the opportunity wisely.

NorthReport

MM good assessment

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Enough voters will be swayed back to Wynne and the media narrative will flip to Liberal momentum with two weeks to go.  Will it get her second place?  I don't know. But this pretty much solidifies a PC  majority IMHO.

I don't think anyone will be swayed back to the Liberals, but we'll just have to wait and see how that turns out.

Ciabatta2

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Enough voters will be swayed back to Wynne and the media narrative will flip to Liberal momentum with two weeks to go.  Will it get her second place?  I don't know. But this pretty much solidifies a PC  majority IMHO.

I don't think anyone will be swayed back to the Liberals, but we'll just have to wait and see how that turns out.

I think there are lots of upper-middle and white collar voters that don't love the Liberals, can't vote PC but are on the fence about voting NDP, and I think Wynne's articulate, sorry not sorry, debate-club performance showed that she's their left-when-they-want-it, right-when-they-want-it, urbane, professional candidate. But I might be wron.g.

NorthReport

 

 

Andrea needs to focus on Doug Ford and basically ignore the Liberals who are fighting to even keep official party status, as that is the NDP's key to obtaining a majority government.

If the NDP does not get a majority there is no assurance who will support who.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Enough voters will be swayed back to Wynne and the media narrative will flip to Liberal momentum with two weeks to go.  Will it get her second place?  I don't know. But this pretty much solidifies a PC  majority IMHO.

I don't think anyone will be swayed back to the Liberals, but we'll just have to wait and see how that turns out.

I think there are lots of upper-middle and white collar voters that don't love the Liberals, can't vote PC but are on the fence about voting NDP, and I think Wynne's articulate, sorry not sorry, debate-club performance showed that she's their left-when-they-want-it, right-when-they-want-it, urbane, professional candidate. But I might be wron.g.

I get your point, but I think the people you describe would never have left the Liberals. Wynne was clearly their choice, even before the debate. They are the 20% core that has held firm through thick and thin. Of course, I also might be wrong. Interesting times.

Ciabatta2

I mean, Andrea couldn't even do a good job on the labour question.  Support your principles, stand up for what you beleive in - don't pivot and attack.  Show the consequences of their lack of values and the outcomes of having yours.

NorthReport

Before the debate the NDP has had continuing momentum upwards in support, while the PCs and the Liberals to a lesser extent have been losing support, and nothing happened tonite to change that channel. I hope everyone has seen Abacus' poll results today.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Ciabatta2 wrote:

I mean, Andrea couldn't even do a good job on the labour question.  Support your principles, stand up for what you beleive in - don't pivot and attack.  Show the consequences of their lack of values and the outcomes of having yours.

I don't quite get your point here. The question I assume you are referring to pointed out that the NDP has committed to not using back to work legislation to end any legal strike by a public sector union. Both other leaders attacked her on this, and she told them that the solution is to maintain good relations with the unions, so that strikes won't happen, rather than admit defeat by legislating an end to strikes. Did I misunderstand what happened? How did you see the exchange?

NorthReport

Oops

jerrym

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Enough voters will be swayed back to Wynne and the media narrative will flip to Liberal momentum with two weeks to go.  Will it get her second place?  I don't know. But this pretty much solidifies a PC  majority IMHO.

Wynne was in the save the furniture from the flood mode. The latest poll shows 84% of Ontario voters want change. She had to hit a grand slam. She hit a single. 

Pogo Pogo's picture

Debates are becoming a minor part of the campaign.  There is just way to much information everywhere now and the debate information just gets lost in the jumble. There will never be a Mulroney/Turner turning point again.

Ciabatta2

Pogo wrote:

Debates are becoming a minor part of the campaign.  There is just way to much information everywhere now and the debate information just gets lost in the jumble. There will never be a Mulroney/Turner turning point again.

I agree generally, I just think that the people Horwath needs to win over to push her over the top are the few that actually watch these things.  Akin is right.  This isn't going to win the St Paulses of the Ontario election world. And this time, she was second best.

Pondering

I don't know that anyone will share my reaction but for what it's worth here it is.

Ford and Wynne came across as politicians. Horwath came across as a sincere person.

Misfit Misfit's picture

I am not a Liberal and likely never will be. For what it's worth, I think that Kathleen Wynne was an excellent premier and it bothers me that she is going out this way. 

 I don't believe in privatizing crown corporations and I don't like her decision to privatize Ontario Hydro. 

I also take a dim view to her recruiting the federal NDP candidate to run as a Liberal provincially in Sudbury. She threw a physically disabled man under the bus and I was very disappointed in her decision to do that.

I think that Kathleen Wynne is very intelligent and is an excellent communicator and debater.

I  also like her $15 minimum wage legislation and sex education curriculum in the classroom.

She had to implement some very tough and necessary laws that were progressive and unpopular and controversial to many.

 It is very easy to go with the flow and try to keep yourself popular by avoiding controversy. She didn't do that. And for that I commend her.

 

Ciabatta2

Definitely think she should get a high five but let's get real, she didn't do those initiatives out of the goodness of her heart.  She did it for political positioning.  Imagine just how unpopular she would be if she hadn't had the (part-time) "social justice premier" stuff to fall back on.

She did those initiatives to appeal to new voters.  Not because it was the right thing.  And I'm one of her voters.

josh

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Wynne was the definite winner.  Horwath didn't crack but she did not do herself any favours. She missed a number of knock chances.  Ford, well, how he does doesn't matter - no one watching this is considering voting for him or not voting for him anyway.

Wynne looks and sounds the most like a Premier.  But I've always wondered if that's mental bias code for not sounding working class.

Enough voters will be swayed back to Wynne and the media narrative will flip to Liberal momentum with two weeks to go.  Will it get her second place?  I don't know. But this pretty much solidifies a PC  majority IMHO.

Enough voters?  You mean, a piece of a piece of a piece?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Advantage Horwath. She ripped Ford a new one. Good debate.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Definitely think she should get a high five but let's get real, she didn't do those initiatives out of the goodness of her heart.  She did it for political positioning.  Imagine just how unpopular she would be if she hadn't had the (part-time) "social justice premier" stuff to fall back on.

She did those initiatives to appeal to new voters.  Not because it was the right thing.  And I'm one of her voters.

Ciabatta, there isn't a reason you'd LIKE Wynne to make enough of a comeback to stop an ONDP victory, is there?  You've really doubled-down on presenting this debate as a disaster for Horwath and some sort of massive comeback for Wynne.   

Ciabatta2

No. I'm no longer affiliated with either one of them. Unlike MM and others, I can comment and discuss without partisanness. I'm not sure who I would vote for yet.

Not sure if any of you have a smart phone, but when I look at my newsfeed there is only one headline about the election and it's Radwanski's from the Globe: With a target on her back, Andrea Horwath struggles in the spotlight during final debate

More people will read that one line than any youtube clips or other articles. Ouch.

Sean in Ottawa

I think Horwath did not lose the debate in terms of what she had to do. I say this becuase what she needed to do was not lose to Ford. The most negative thing that could be said is that her performance may have been less than Wynne.

For many voters it is hard to imagine Wynne would be a great threat. -- if she gained it would likely be at the expense of both Ford and Horwath and likely not enough to change that many seats. I think the most important thing now is to keep Ford under a majority allowing some combination of other parties to govern.

I would of course love to see an NDP government and I think this remains possible even if the result may be close. A Ford government is also possible and I think very dangerous. Conservatism has become more and more extreme in Canada since the days of the realitively middle of the road PCs of Bill Davis. This is in part because other parties and society has moved a bit and the PCs haven't and partly becuase they are more extreme than they were. Now PC governments represent quite a move backwards rather than being merely unhelpful.

I am not a fan of the Liberal party as most people here know. I am also not happy about some of the policies of Wynne, particularly around Hydro (something first broken by the Conservatives). I did not like some of the political games she played. I do not trust Liberals. However, it is still important to acknowledge that among Liberals Wynne is more progressive than most in most respects. It is utterly wrong to suggest that the Liberals and PCs in Ontario are similar or that a change between them would be a non-event. A Ford government would bring misery to many people and set the province back.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Misfit wrote:

I am not a Liberal and likely never will be. For what it's worth, I think that Kathleen Wynne was an excellent premier and it bothers me that she is going out this way. 

 I don't believe in privatizing crown corporations and I don't like her decision to privatize Ontario Hydro. 

I also take a dim view to her recruiting the federal NDP candidate to run as a Liberal provincially in Sudbury. She threw a physically disabled man under the bus and I was very disappointed in her decision to do that.

I think that Kathleen Wynne is very intelligent and is an excellent communicator and debater.

I  also like her $15 minimum wage legislation and sex education curriculum in the classroom.

She had to implement some very tough and necessary laws that were progressive and unpopular and controversial to many.

 It is very easy to go with the flow and try to keep yourself popular by avoiding controversy. She didn't do that. And for that I commend her.

 

She did some good things.  Hydro was the big mistake.  She should probably have retired in the summer of '17.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Misfit wrote:

I am not a Liberal and likely never will be. For what it's worth, I think that Kathleen Wynne was an excellent premier and it bothers me that she is going out this way. 

 I don't believe in privatizing crown corporations and I don't like her decision to privatize Ontario Hydro. 

I also take a dim view to her recruiting the federal NDP candidate to run as a Liberal provincially in Sudbury. She threw a physically disabled man under the bus and I was very disappointed in her decision to do that.

I think that Kathleen Wynne is very intelligent and is an excellent communicator and debater.

I  also like her $15 minimum wage legislation and sex education curriculum in the classroom.

She had to implement some very tough and necessary laws that were progressive and unpopular and controversial to many.

 It is very easy to go with the flow and try to keep yourself popular by avoiding controversy. She didn't do that. And for that I commend her.

 

She did some good things.  Hydro was the big mistake.  She should probably have retired in the summer of '17.

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

No. I'm no longer affiliated with either one of them. Unlike MM and others, I can comment and discuss without partisanness. I'm not sure who I would vote for yet.

Not sure if any of you have a smart phone, but when I look at my newsfeed there is only one headline about the election and it's Radwanski's from the Globe: With a target on her back, Andrea Horwath struggles in the spotlight during final debate

More people will read that one line than any youtube clips or other articles. Ouch.

I am not sure that anyone who would consider voting for the NDP would be put off by that. Everyone knows that this is a direct result of improved fortune for the NDP and being a threat to the other parties.

In a time of political false news and games I suspect that most people expect to hear exaggeration and falsehood if they are not already partisan for another party. The damage to Horwath can only be seen in the context where the other parties are already damaged.

The quote I hear most is the exchange where Horwath is criticized for a platform math mistake where in the same breath we are reminded that the platform was fully costed and the Conservatives did not even release one as yet. If the Conservatives release a platform very late, then how it is received could make a big difference. Any errors in it, or concerns about its priorities would leave the Conservatives no room to recover. If it is received well, that could help them but it is hard to imagine a document that adds up and offers everything to all people.

I am sure they will put some vote buying offers in there but this might be a mistake since Wynne already seemed to be accused of trying that in her last budget.

At this point it could be hard to determine if any slowing in the NDP momentum would change things at this late date.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Ciabatta2,

really???  You think her sex Ed curriculum in the schools was to get votes when so many social conservatives of all stripes were against it? 

Also you said in one post that you're backing Kathleen Wynne and then responded to Ken Burch that you haven't made up your mind who you are going to support. 

Flippity floppity!!!

post 23 ciabatta2 writes, "I'm one of her voters!" Specifically in reference to Kathleen Wynne.

post 27 Ciabatta2 writes, "No. I'm no longer affiliated with either one of them...I'm not sure who I would vote for yet."

 

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

Ciabatta2,

really???  You think her sex Ed curriculum in the schools was to get votes when so many social conservatives of all stripes were against it? 

Also you said in one post that you're backing Kathleen Wynne and then responded to Ken Burch that you haven't made up your mind who you are going to support. 

Flippity floppity!!!

post 23 ciabatta2 writes, "I'm one of her voters!" Specifically in reference to Kathleen Wynne.

post 27 Ciabatta2 writes, "No. I'm no longer affiliated with either one of them...I'm not sure who I would vote for yet."

 

Let's be fair here:

1) Poster says she is one of Wynnes voters -- this is not Wynnes first election so she may have voted last time for her.

2) Flip flop on voting? What the heck is wrong with poeple considering their vote and changing it? Why can't that be something that we can respect?

I see no reason here to not believe answers given by this poster -- there is no contradiction here

 

Misfit Misfit's picture

And I don't agree

jerrym

Ciabatta2 wrote:

No. I'm no longer affiliated with either one of them. Unlike MM and others, I can comment and discuss without partisanness. I'm not sure who I would vote for yet.

Not sure if any of you have a smart phone, but when I look at my newsfeed there is only one headline about the election and it's Radwanski's from the Globe: With a target on her back, Andrea Horwath struggles in the spotlight during final debate

More people will read that one line than any youtube clips or other articles. Ouch.

Nonpartisan? Considering this and previous tweets you have made, don't make me laugh. 

Sean in Ottawa

jerrym wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

No. I'm no longer affiliated with either one of them. Unlike MM and others, I can comment and discuss without partisanness. I'm not sure who I would vote for yet.

Not sure if any of you have a smart phone, but when I look at my newsfeed there is only one headline about the election and it's Radwanski's from the Globe: With a target on her back, Andrea Horwath struggles in the spotlight during final debate

More people will read that one line than any youtube clips or other articles. Ouch.

Nonpartisan? Considering this and previous tweets you have made, don't make me laugh. 

I don't think anyone here is really nonpartisan. But this poster may really be conflicted about choices now.

I just don't think it is fair to say that there is a contradiction in a person saying they have voted for Wynne and are undecided now. Almost half of NDP voters now were Wynne voters last time. If they have been around for a while here -- many may have been partisan Liberal in the past. Some may even be in denial about how bad the Liberals may do -- even as they consider their own options.

I disagree with this poster on a lot of points recently but we should be fair and not twist words. I disagree on analysis with this pster but there is nothing here suggesting this poster is being dishonest or playing a game.

The objective here is to discuss from different points of view not to bully a person who thinks differently. I have complained about trolling here but I see no trolling here from this poster. Just because you don't like what someone says it does not mean that it was not sincere.

NorthReport

Actually because she was leading, or close to leading in the polls, and with the momentum, Andrea Horwath probably came out on top in the debate last nite, as there was no knockout, however Ford seemd lost in any detailed discussion.  

Can you imagine how the media would be treating Andre Horwath if the NDP had not released their financial plan? All hell would be breaking loose. Unbelievable, as the PCs are just continuing to deliver a big fuck you to the voters of Ontario. 

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Actually because she was leading, or close to leading in the polls, and with the momentum, Andrea Horwath probably came out on top in the debate last nite, as there was no knockout, however Ford seemd lost in any detailed discussion.  

Can you imagine how the media would be treating Andre Horwath if the NDP had not released their financial plan? All hell would be breaking loose. Unbelievable, as the PCs are just continuing to deliver a big fuck you to the voters of Ontario. 

I think the PCs are planning to release a platform right at the end hoping there won't be time for a reaction. The thing is journalists will hate that and might give them a real strong reaction.

Ciabatta2

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

jerrym wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

No. I'm no longer affiliated with either one of them. Unlike MM and others, I can comment and discuss without partisanness. I'm not sure who I would vote for yet.

Not sure if any of you have a smart phone, but when I look at my newsfeed there is only one headline about the election and it's Radwanski's from the Globe: With a target on her back, Andrea Horwath struggles in the spotlight during final debate

More people will read that one line than any youtube clips or other articles. Ouch.

Nonpartisan? Considering this and previous tweets you have made, don't make me laugh. 

I don't think anyone here is really nonpartisan. But this poster may really be conflicted about choices now.

I just don't think it is fair to say that there is a contradiction in a person saying they have voted for Wynne and are undecided now. Almost half of NDP voters now were Wynne voters last time. If they have been around for a while here -- many may have been partisan Liberal in the past. Some may even be in denial about how bad the Liberals may do -- even as they consider their own options.

I disagree with this poster on a lot of points recently but we should be fair and not twist words. I disagree on analysis with this pster but there is nothing here suggesting this poster is being dishonest or playing a game.

The objective here is to discuss from different points of view not to bully a person who thinks differently. I have complained about trolling here but I see no trolling here from this poster. Just because you don't like what someone says it does not mean that it was not sincere.

Thanks for the kind post.  As with every voter that hasn't cast their mental ballot before their real one, of course I am conflicted! 

Non-partisan might have been a stretch, but what I meant is that I don't have a dog in the Wynne surviving race.  She wears neither horns nor halo.  I've worked (long past) for both a Liberal and the NDP (at separate times, of course. And the NDP for longer than I did for the Liberals.)  I like them both (I found the NDP a more accepting and kinder community than the Liberals, but less focused and less professional), but they both have pros and cons, strengths and weaknesses, valid reasons for voting/ignoring, good candidates and bad, and both get overrun by their inner urges (to prove principle vs. to win power).  I will also cop to volunteering for the PCs, but I was young so that's my excuse. ;)

Ciabatta2

Misfit wrote:

Ciabatta2,

really???  You think her sex Ed curriculum in the schools was to get votes when so many social conservatives of all stripes were against it? 

Also you said in one post that you're backing Kathleen Wynne and then responded to Ken Burch that you haven't made up your mind who you are going to support.

Yes.  The social conservatives were never voting for her anyway.  They were no loss to her politically.  Red Tories were not going to vote for the Gas Plant Party, and the prospect of Brown opened up the bleed of some Blue Liberals, new Canadians, and modertate "need change" voters.  She couldn't win only with centrists.  Wynne was cornered in the first year of her mandate - she needed to open up new space and find new voters.  The only space was  "left" of the traditional Liberal base.  Part of the "social justice Premier" mantra was policy initiatives on themes like sex ed. It was the right thing to do.  No doubt about it.  It was not, however, only some great move of altruism that she did it.

Also, I said I was one of her former voters and when I wrote that I meant a former Liberal (also, former NDP) and someone that should be within her voter pool.  Apologies for the confusion.  I voted for her as Liberal leader, but voted Green in the last provincial election (not that it matters.)  With posters like Mighty Middle, I can understand why people here are testy! :)  But honestly, it's just a messageboard.  Let's chill and discuss. :)

Ciabatta2

NorthReport wrote:

Actually because she was leading, or close to leading in the polls, and with the momentum, Andrea Horwath probably came out on top in the debate last nite, as there was no knockout, however Ford seemd lost in any detailed discussion.  

I think that's why she was aggressive.  To win she needs to pummel the PCs, not the Liberals.  That's what was missing from Radwanski's debate analysis.  But the headline was just such a killer.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Ciabatta2 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

 

Actually because she was leading, or close to leading in the polls, and with the momentum, Andrea Horwath probably came out on top in the debate last nite, as there was no knockout, however Ford seemd lost in any detailed discussion.  

I think that's why she was aggressive.  To win she needs to pummel the PCs, not the Liberals.  That's what was missing from Radwanski's debate analysis.  But the headline was just such a killer.

Well, Radwanski is being paid to help them STOP Horwath.

Pondering

Authenticity is important to voters these days. Horwath won on authenticity.

NorthReport

http://rabble.ca/news/2018/05/final-ontario-leaders’-debate-wynne-was-dignified-horwath-feisty-and-ford-evasive

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Actually because she was leading, or close to leading in the polls, and with the momentum, Andrea Horwath probably came out on top in the debate last nite, as there was no knockout, however Ford seemd lost in any detailed discussion.  

I think that's why she was aggressive.  To win she needs to pummel the PCs, not the Liberals.  That's what was missing from Radwanski's debate analysis.  But the headline was just such a killer.

I agree. This explains what she did and why it may not matter. Liberals are obviously angry that their leader did not do badly but that it may not make a difference because she is no longer a factor in the result.

I think the debate is not a factor now.

The question is whether the red scare campaign we are seeing in the dying days will help lift the Conservatives for their win or backfire and give it to the NDP.

OR the thing nobody is predicting which is a minority. If the Liberals are not quite as dead as some predict and get 5-8 seats that could be enough for balance of power. As I have said before, I am not sure the Liberals would want that right now. This is why I think they would be happy to give either the Conservatives or the NDP a speaker if that will avoid the awful position of enabling the NDP or Conservatives more directly.

But if the Liberals have balance of power, I suspect they will opt to support the party with the most seats until they see something they do not like -- which might be the first budget if that is Ford or an extended negotiation with the NDP on a case by case basis that could go on for some time. If this assembly starts with a PC minority it may end with an NDP one just so the Liberals are able to prove that they are no beholden to either party.

If there is a minority government, you can be sure the Liberals will spend lots of money on polling in the next couple years (as any third party would)...