Kitchener-Waterloo byelection

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Stockholm
Kitchener-Waterloo byelection

It has just been announced that Catherine Fife the chair of the Waterloo school board and President of the Ontario Association of Public School Board Trustees will seek the NDP nomination in K-W...the Tories have already nominated and the liberals are still searching high and low for someone willing to run for them. With Fife this could be winnable for the NDP IMHO.

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janfromthebruce

you betcha Stockholm - we're in this for the win & with Catherine we will win! Kiss

janfromthebruce

OPSBA president Catherine Fife seeks NDP nomination in Witmer riding

 

Catherine Fife, trustee and chair of the Waterloo Region District School Board and president of the Ontario Public School Boards’ Association, is putting her name forward to run on the NDP ticket in the local by-election to fill the seat vacated by former Tory MPP Elizabeth Witmer.

The NDP nomination meeting is scheduled for July 26. Fife made her announcement Thursday morning in the Waterloo Public Square.

Fife seeks NDP nomination

In a press release, Fife said she was motivated to run for MPP by “both a real concern about the direction of this province and an interest in providing strong representation for Kitchener-Waterloo at Queen’s Park.”

“I’m confident that the NDP’s growing support in this province will translate into a tight three-way race in the coming byelection,” Fife said. “I’m obviously hoping to not only win the NDP nomination but also to come out on top when the byelection votes are tallied.”

janfromthebruce

HNMM, Jim from Waterloo wrote with virtual ivisible type!

felixr

I think it is winnable too.

love is free love is free's picture

this is what happens when you're riding high in the polls!  great news!  an excellent addition to caucus, a nice little grab off the tories, and a firmer hold on the balance of power in ontario's assembly: hard not to get excited about this race.

robbie_dee

Indeed. [url=http://www.therecord.com/opinion/columns/article/760337--d-amato-don-t-c... Don’t count out ‘Elizabeth Left’ in byelection (KW Record)[/url]

Quote:
It has often been said that the voters of Kitchener-Waterloo riding didn’t vote for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives for two decades. Instead, they voted for their Tory MPP, Elizabeth Witmer. Witmer retired unexpectedly this spring. An important byelection is approaching. And if voters in that riding are looking for a new Elizabeth, they’ll find her in Catherine Fife. Fife, who announced her intention to run for the New Democrats on Thursday, is so similar to Witmer that you could almost think of her as “Elizabeth Left.” Both of them got their start in local politics as a school trustee, and progressed to become the chair of the Waterloo Region public school board. Both are strong-minded, formidable leaders with steel backbones — tucked under a calm and friendly exterior. Both are ambitious, hard-working pragmatists. And when they run in provincial elections (Fife ran against Witmer in 2007), each turns out to be more popular than her party.

JimWaterloo

You can visit Catherine Fife's website http://www.catherinefife.ca to find more about her and to follow her social media links.

StarSuburb

If Karen Scian wins the OLP nom, interesting situation with all 4 main parties running female candidates. Anyone know the last time that happened in a by-election?

janfromthebruce

Catherine Fife is the only candidate, running for the NDP, who has been tested "electorially" and won, as a school trustee. In fact, in the last municipal election, we won every single poll. The other partys' candidates are really unknown to the voters.

Fidel

I'd vote for Catherine. Very impressive.

robbie_dee

janfromthebruce wrote:

Catherine Fife is the only candidate, running for the NDP, who has been tested "electorially" and won, as a school trustee. In fact, in the last municipal election, we won every single poll. The other partys' candidates are really unknown to the voters.

Liberal nomination candidate Karen Scian is a city councillor so presumably she's been 'tested' by the voters as well.

ETA: I am rooting for Catherine, though.

theleftyinvestor

StarSuburb wrote:

If Karen Scian wins the OLP nom, interesting situation with all 4 main parties running female candidates. Anyone know the last time that happened in a by-election?

Don't know about by-elections, but it happened on my side of the country in Vancouver Centre for the 2011 federal election. Hedy Fry (Lib), Karen Shillington (NDP), Jennifer Clarke (Con), Adriane Carr (Green).

Oh! Vancouver-Fairview provincial by-election was Jenn McGinn (BCNDP), Margaret MacDiarmid (BCLIB) and Jane Sterk (BC Green). The Conservative was a guy but wasn't part of the debates and they weren't a going concern at that point in time.

adma

And actually, it happened in none other but K-W provincially in 2007 (Witmer and Fife included).

Incidentally, I've yet to calculate 2011 provincial numbers, but here's the admittedly rough 2011 federal numbers for K-W divvied up into geographic sectors (including 400 polls, but excluding 500 polls, advance and special)

laurelwood--Con 1970 (44.32), Lib 1620 (36.45), NDP 663 (14.92), GP 161 (3.62), PP 24 (.54), Ind 4 (.09), ML 3 (.07)

rummelhardt--Con 1878 (44.28), Lib 1608 (37.92), NDP 564 (13.30), GP 175 (4.13), PP 6 (.14), Ind 6 (.14), ML 4 (.09)

northfield--Con 2256 (43.68), Lib 1677 (32.47), NDP 926 (17.93), GP 262 (5.07), PP 19 (.37), Ind 16 (.31), ML 9 (.17)

lexington--Con 4491 (47.81), Lib 3060 (32.57), NDP 1405 (14.96), GP 386 (4.11), Ind 22 (.23), PP 20 (.21), ML 10 (.11)

university--Lib 1193 (41.77), Con 790 (27.66), NDP 662 (23.18), GP 162 (5.67), PP 31 (1.09), Ind 13 (.46), ML 5 (.18)

ec waterloo--Lib 2534 (37.54), Con 2522 (37.36), NDP 1240 (18.37), GP 394 (5.84), PP 30 (.44), Ind 24 (.36), ML 6 (.09)

beechwood--Lib 1296 (46.50), Con 975 (34.98), NDP 380 (13.63), GP 117 (4.20), PP 12 (.43), Ind 6 (.22), ML 1 (.04)

wc waterloo--Lib 1380 (47.21), Con 901 (30.82), NDP 393 (13.45), GP 231 (7.90), PP 12 (.41), Ind 5 (.17), ML 1 (.03)

westvale--Con 1598 (42.26), Lib 1362 (36.02), NDP 624 (16.50), GP 176 (4.65), PP 11 (.29), Ind 6 (.16), ML 4 (.11)

nw kitchener--Con 1777 (44.58), Lib 1187 (29.78), NDP 870 (21.83), GP 119 (2.99), PP 14 (.35), Ind 13 (.33), ML 6 (.15)

nc kitchener--Lib 1266 (37.85), Con 1116 (33.36), NDP 674 (20.15), GP 250 (7.47), PP 19 (.57), Ind 15 (.45), ML 5 (.15)

ne kitchener--Con 1202 (38.98), NDP 837 (27.14), Lib 834 (27.04), GP 171 (5.54), PP 22 (.71). Ind 16 (.52), ML 2 (.06)

bridgeport--Con 870 (53.21), Lib 364 (22.26), NDP 326 (19.94), GP 62 (3.79), PP 7 (.43), Ind 4 (.24), ML 2 (.12)

janfromthebruce

Ontario by-election to be held in Vaughan as Sorbara retires

Okay what do you think the political strategy is here by the Libs? This riding is held both provincially and federally by the Cons, although Sorbara won it handily the last 2 elections.

 

Interesting reference to the byelection in KW -

The NDP secured the nomination of Catherine Fife, head of the Ontario Public School Boards Association, to be the party’s candidate in Kitchener-Waterloo.

Fife, well known in the education community, was also courted by the Liberals. Some say this is her election to lose in the riding.

infracaninophile infracaninophile's picture

After listening to Laurel Broten on "Ontario Today" yesterday, I hope the teachers' federations turn out en masse to work for Catherine Fife. The McGuinty government's willingness to tromp all over collective bargaining legislation, and spead lies right and left, was thoroughly appalling.  They need a strong message.  

I have friends in Vaughan but they're apolitical so I have no sense of the dynamics there. Are there any good NDP prospects? A Jagmeet Singh could do well in that diverse riding I would think....

 

Robo

While South Asians are the largest visible minority group within the Vaughan Riding, they are nowhere near the percentage of the elctorate that they are in nearby Brampton ridings. More telling statistics to describe the riding are that Vaughan riding is (1) 96% homeowners and 6% tenant households, and (2) 85% of the homes in the riding were built between 1986 and the date of the 2006 census while only 15% of all homes in the riding were built earlier than 1986.

janfromthebruce

Also in the Vaughan riding, the largest ethicity identified is Italian and followed by Jewish. 

adma

And the Jewish community is largely a far-northeast rump.

Generally speaking, the NDP *could* test-ride an "Italian strategy" here--a northward version of what's historically worked for them south of Steeles?--but I wouldn't go much further than the test-ride scenario, unless some un-corrupt bigwig from one of the other parties throws in his/her lot as a standard-bearer...

theleftyinvestor

The BCNDP got Joe Trasolini (Italian by birth, ex-mayor of Port Moody) elected here in a by-election. Now that corner of the burbs has always had a bit of an orange streak to it anyway, but perhaps that might be a good case study to start with if you want to consider how the NDP might strategize in Vaughan.

However, one Italian strategy I would veer away from is whatever the brilliant minds of Yorkview came up with for the 1990 Ontario election. Some rookie named George Mammoliti became the leading homophobe of the NDP government caucus, and is now (going by Giorgio these days) Rob Ford's best buddy on Toronto city council.

Is there anyone even vaguely left-leaning in the past 10 years of Vaughan's municipal politics?

Grandpa_Bill

An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.

The opinion of those commenting here seems to be that the NDP does indeed have a competitive advantage in the K-W byelection. I'm not writing to refute that opinion, but rather to suggest what might have been done were the situation otherwise.

The NDP might have considered not running a candidate at all.  However, since the byelection will be considered a referendum on the performance of the minority government to date, the party would need to participate in some way--but how?

Perhaps by involving itself in the election as an intervenor at the level of provincial policy, as a friend of the court, so to speak, by which I mean the court of public opinion:

  • by running ads of this type: Thinking of voting Liberal? Think again. Here's why . . . .
  • by having the leader and the critics speak on matters that they have been dealing with at Queen's Park.

For such a campaign, the party could have appealled for $ from NDP supporters province-wide--much as it is actually doing, but, I believe, with hope for a better response.

Or so it seems to me, eh?!

adma

Grandpa_Bill wrote:
An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.

If that were so cut-and-dried a case, then most Alberta federal Cons should be acclaimed.  However, electorally speaking, that's no fun...

janfromthebruce

Poll: Vaughan byelection up for grabs

I'll do some snip and clip here:

Poll: Vaughan byelection up for grabs ....If the provincial byelection in Vaughan were held today, the traditionally Liberal riding could fall to the Tories, a new Forum poll shows.

The Forum poll, taken by telephone late last week, shows 41 per cent of voters would choose the Progressive Conservatives, 40 per cent would vote for the Liberals, while only 15 per cent would vote NDP.

Premier Dalton McGuinty has retained his popularity in this Greater Toronto Area riding, according to the 452 Vaughan residents surveyed.

While McGuinty’s credibility with voters provincially has suffered recently, he had an approval rating of 32 per cent in Vaughan. New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath’s approval is highest at 33 per cent and PC Leader Tim Hudak is sitting at 24 per cent.

However, Forum found the Conservatives in Vaughan are more likely to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting for their party at 42 per cent as opposed to the Liberals at 39 per cent and the NDP at 37 per cent.

In Kitchener—Waterloo, the NDP secured the nomination of Catherine Fife, head of the Ontario Public School Boards Association. Some say she is the candidate to beat.

So it doesn't say but WHO paid for this poll? And furthermore, and which party's interest does it serve to release that information? My guess Liberal because it's to work like push polling in to tap down the NDP vote in Vaugh by suggesting "no hope", and yet not one candidate has been nominated yet, for any party.

Also, once again alluding to Catherine ahead in K/W. But also, quite weird that a poll was run in Vaugh and yet not one done in K/W although it was called a long time ago??? Perhaps a poll was done by Forum for a "party of interest" but they don't want to release those results.

What do others think is going on here?

 

 

 

Stockholm

Forum routinely does polls for free for the Toronto Star that no one pays for. Since they use computers to robo-poll the riding - it costs them almost nothing and they get publicity for themselves. I see no conspiracy here. They did a poll in Waterloo back in April the day after Witmer announced she was resigning - just testing the parties with no candidate names. This time they polled Vaughan the day after Sorbara announced he was resigning - again just party names and no candidates (for obvious reasons since no one has been nominated).

It makes no sense to poll in Waterloo right now since the Liberals are not nominating a candidate until Thursday - why do a poll when only two out of three of the major candidates have been chosen when you can wait three days and test all the parties and candidate names??

As for Vaughan, I really don't give a damn that it shows the NDP out of the running - Vaughan is and will always be one of the NDP's weakest ridings in the whole province. That riding is mostly ostentatious mansions belong to second generation Italian-Canadians - many of whom made their fortune in the construction industry employing non-union labour - if anyone can think of a riding with worse demographic for the NDP than that - please tell us.  If anything, I'm impressed that the Forum poll in Vaughan  has the NDP at 15% - that is a full 4 points ABOVE the 11% the NDP had in that riding last October! If the NDP vote in Vaughan falls - it won't be because anyone "votes "strategically" for ther Liberals. Why would they? its a BY-ELECTION - if the Liberals win it only brings them closer to having a majority and reducing the NDP's influence. What is more likely to happen is the ONDP will spend almost no money in Vaughan and focus 99% of its efforts in Waterloo and a lot of peopl;e who might vote NDOP in a general election will instead just stay home and not bother voting at all. Keep in mind that in the federal byelection in Vaughan  in 2010 that elected Fantino - the NDP took ONE p[ercent of the vote!

janfromthebruce

thanks Stock, I didn't realize that Forum had done a poll for Waterloo the day after an election. That seems silly and a waste because of the optics of the Libs buying off a PC.

Not everybody living in Vaugh would be an owner of a construction company and obviously 15% support suggests there are folks there who want to vote NDP.

Stockholm

The Waterloo poll was the day after the vacancy was declared...not after an election, but I agree that in both cases it was a bit hasty, especially since as I recall both the Waterloo and Vaughan polls were done on a holiday weekend (Good Friday and Civic Holiday)

Grandpa_Bill

adma wrote:

Grandpa_Bill wrote:
An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.

If that were so cut-and-dried a case, then most Alberta federal Cons should be acclaimed.  However, electorally speaking, that's no fun...

No fun whatsoever for those who experience politics as games or (a la Hedges et. al.) theatre, eh?!  But for others, . . .

Grandpa_Bill

Poll: Vaughan byelection up for grabs wrote:

If the provincial byelection in Vaughan were held today, the traditionally Liberal riding could fall to the Tories, a new Forum poll shows. . . .

The Forum poll, taken by telephone late last week, shows 41 per cent of voters would choose the Progressive Conservatives, 40 per cent would vote for the Liberals, while only 15 per cent would vote NDP.

Another byelection in which the party might consider running a policy rather than a personal campaign.

 

janfromthebruce

Not sure what you are getting at Grandpa Bill, so are you suggesting that the NDP should not run a candidate in Vaughn? What about W/K?

Grandpa_Bill

janfromthebruce wrote:

Not sure what you are getting at Grandpa Bill, so are you suggesting that the NDP should not run a candidate in Vaughn? What about W/K?

Strange to say, that's the idea, JftB:

  • Treat the byelection for what it is, namely, a referendum on the performance of the minority government to date
  • Use the leader and the shadow cabinet as princials instead of some talented, well-intentioned stand-in

Bizarre, eh?!

adma

Grandpa_Bill wrote:

adma wrote:

Grandpa_Bill wrote:
An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.

If that were so cut-and-dried a case, then most Alberta federal Cons should be acclaimed.  However, electorally speaking, that's no fun...

No fun whatsoever for those who experience politics as games or (a la Hedges et. al.) theatre, eh?!  But for others, . . .

Yeah, I know what you mean: the old "Ralph Nader elected Dubyah" argument

But ultimately, an overinsistence upon such "competitive advantage" is like an overinsistence upon the only way from Toronto to Windsor being along 400-series highways...

janfromthebruce

I respectfully disagree with you Bill. I don't see the McGuinty Liberals progressive and how they are running things. If we get a great candidate, we should support them.

Grandpa_Bill

janfromthebruce wrote:

I respectfully disagree with you Bill. I don't see the McGuinty Liberals progressive and how they are running things. If we get a great candidate, we should support them.

Thanks for the comment, JB.  I agree with you: the Liberals are not progressive.  That's why I suggested this earlier in this thread, with some added emphasis here as it relates to your comment:

Quote:

The NDP might have considered not running a candidate at all.  However, since the byelection will be considered a referendum on the performance of the minority government to date, the party would need to participate in some way--but how?

Perhaps by involving itself in the election as an intervenor at the level of provincial policy, as a friend of the court, so to speak, by which I mean the court of public opinion:

  • by running ads of this type: Thinking of voting Liberal? Think again. Here's why . . . .
  • 

  • by having the leader and the critics speak on matters that they have been dealing with at Queen's Park.

For such a campaign, the party could have appealled for $ from NDP supporters province-wide--much as it is actually doing, but, I believe, with hope for a better response.

And YES if the NDP gets a great candidate, . . . .  But (for me, at least) a great candidate is one who will come second at worst, not second at best.  In Vaughan, there's not a chance; in K-W, it seems to be a crap shoot. 

Seems to me:  crap shoots are for those with much bigger bankrolls.  Cool

 

nicky

Sept 6 is the date for both by-elections

Grandpa_Bill

adma wrote:

But ultimately, an overinsistence upon such "competitive advantage" is like an overinsistence upon the only way from Toronto to Windsor being along 400-series highways...

Interesting point:  it certainly has merit.  I'm, of course, more concerned with the insistence on the need to run a candidate in every riding in every election as the only route to political success.

janfromthebruce

Well Bill, the NDP has  great candidate with Catherine Fife for K/W and I really see it as bad form to only run a candidate unless we think we will come in 2nd at least.

I think that good candidates come out and may not get elected the 1st time but do the 2nd or 3rd time out - voters see them as "serious candidates" and not just there because they are assured success and MPP's paycheck. I note that MPPs and also MPs who had to work hard to get elected appear to work very hard for their constituents and want to do a good job.

Maybe that is why federally, until the NDP's big breakthrough, our MPs were well regarded in the legislature. When we got all our new MPs, it was really pressed on them that they had to work hard every day to ensure (not only re-election) but that those lucky votes will be rewarded.

The lucky MP who decided to quit and become a liberal wasn't interested in working hard or even moving to her area that she was representing. I guess she was at the end of the day  a much better fit for the liberals. Something tells me she will not run again, and we do need to run a super candidate in that riding. And I'm hoping there are few people there right now, putting down roots to run there for the NDP.

toaster

If the NDP didn't file a candidate in Vaughan, the Liberals would be assured a victory.  In the case of Vaughan, I don't mind an Ontario PC win, just because it would solidify a minority government.  I might even consider voting PC if I was a resident of Vaughan.  Again, just because of how close the numbers are to a majority.  I don't usually consider voting strategically in elections (actually never in general elections), but this is a very rare circumstance, where one seat does make an enormous difference.  Especially if the Liberals win K-W.  Of course, in K-W I would vote NDP as there is a good chance for a win.  Again, just to clarify, as a citizen, I vote for what would make my province more progressive, socially democratic, or more simply, left.  In the case of Vaughan, that may just be voting PC, as the NDP would maintain a balance of power.

janfromthebruce

Interesting McGuinty calling the date so soon in September - I guess he's trying to lesson the impact of the education negotiations getting in his way, and why he is pressuring school bds to settle by Aug 31/12. But that is not going to happen because contracts don't end until the end of August.

He's counting on being better prepared for an "air war" rather than ground warfare, since it's summer and people are still on vacation mode. Also of note, McGuinty is using 50 million of our money to buy votes in K/W, meanwhile he says we have to vote Liberal to bring down the deficit - hmm, where does that 50 million come from? I guess the libs aren't that broke when it comes to buying a seat.

Ridings of Vaughan, Kitchener-Waterloo to head to polls Sept. 6

Coincidentally, just before McGuinty told reporters the campaign had begun, the Ministry of Transportation put out a press release announcing the government is moving ahead with widening Highway 7 between Guelph and Kitchener-Waterloo by spending $50 million to acquire the necessary property to build it.

McGuinty denied he is trying to buy votes and said he’s “not familiar” with the release. “I do know that Highway 7 is something we’ve been talking about for a long time in that community,” he said.

“I have every confidence in voters to draw their own conclusions and pass judgment,” he said.

 

The Liberals have no shame what so ever - they really make politics look and feel so dirty - Go Catherine Fife.

In Kitchener-Waterloo, the NDP candidate is Catherine Fife, head of the Ontario Public School Boards Association.

Fife is described as a NDP “centrist” that reminds voters of Witmer, a “Red Tory” who was softer on social issues.

adma

Grandpa_Bill wrote:
And YES if the NDP gets a great candidate, . . . .  But (for me, at least) a great candidate is one who will come second at worst, not second at best.  In Vaughan, there's not a chance; in K-W, it seems to be a crap shoot. 

Then again, in 2007, the NDP were seven points away from 2nd in Vaughan--yeah, that was 11.7% vs 18.7% for the PCs; but, still...

Grandpa_Bill

The Literery Review of Canada (July-August 2012) contains a review by Susan Delacourt of Political Marketing in Canada edited by Marland et. al.  Here are quotes from Delacourt's review of material from two of the book's contribuors:

The Shopping Aisles of Democracy

re: Jennifer Lees-Marshment wrote:

“Close campaigns are decided by the least informed, least engaged voters,” Muttart told Lees-Marshment. “These voters do not go looking for political news and information. This necessitates brutally simple communication with clear choices that hits the voter whether they like it or not. Journalists and editorialists often complain about the simplicity of political communication, but marketers must respond to the reality that undecided voters are often not as informed or interested as the political and media class are.”

re: André Turcotte wrote:

Not enough people have been paying attention, in this reviewer’s opinion, to Turcotte’s revelation of how the Conservatives use polls. This is a party only glancingly interested in those national horse-race figures that transfix the media. Conservatives do not even bother with them, in fact. Bringing market-research intelligence to their political strategy, Turcotte shows us, the Conservatives recognized after their 2004 election defeat that they had to shape their “product” to suit those disengaged voters that Muttart was talking about—the people in a position to decide close races. “The result was that out of a sea of about 23 million eligible voters, the Conservative strategy was able to focus on a pool of about 500,000 voters, which made the difference between victory and defeat … and nationwide nightly campaign tracking was replaced by nightly tracking in winnable ridings and among key groups only.”

Running a candidate in every riding is window dressing:  nice if you can afford it, but . . . .

janfromthebruce

Legislation to impose contract on Ontario teachers could trigger an election

Attempts by Ontario's minority Liberal government to impose a wage freeze on teachers this summer could trigger a general election if it can't convince the opposition parties to let the bill pass.

Premier Dalton McGuinty has threatened to recall the legislature for an emergency session to impose a new contract on teachers if they can't reach agreements with local school boards by Sept. 1.

"We’ve worked long and hard and been sincere and earnest in our efforts to work with our teaching partners, but at some point in time you’ve got to act," McGuinty said after touring a school in Windsor.

McGuinty forgot to mention that the province isn't the legal employer and school boards are, so he can't impose anything unless he want s to contravene his own laws and statutes: the Ed Act and Labour Law.

McGuinty, Mr. Blue Liberal is showing Harper how "union busting" is done - WTG.

 

 

adma

Grandpa_Bill wrote:
re: André Turcotte wrote:

Not enough people have been paying attention, in this reviewer’s opinion, to Turcotte’s revelation of how the Conservatives use polls. This is a party only glancingly interested in those national horse-race figures that transfix the media. Conservatives do not even bother with them, in fact. Bringing market-research intelligence to their political strategy, Turcotte shows us, the Conservatives recognized after their 2004 election defeat that they had to shape their “product” to suit those disengaged voters that Muttart was talking about—the people in a position to decide close races. “The result was that out of a sea of about 23 million eligible voters, the Conservative strategy was able to focus on a pool of about 500,000 voters, which made the difference between victory and defeat … and nationwide nightly campaign tracking was replaced by nightly tracking in winnable ridings and among key groups only.”

Running a candidate in every riding is window dressing:  nice if you can afford it, but . . . .

 

So, who's to say that the NDP can't learn something from such Conservative tactics?  Kind of like outflanking them on their own turf...

janfromthebruce

Liberals select Eric Davis to carry banner in byelection

Kitchener-Waterloo Liberals selected lawyer and community activist Eric Davis over Karen Scian and Raj Sharma as their candidate for the Sept. 6 byelection late Thursday night, completing the map of who will contest the vote in 27 days time.

As a lawyer with Miller Thompson LLP, Davis practises municipal, planning and education law. He serves as the vice-chair of the board of the Kitchener-Waterloo United Way and sits on the provincial/federal affairs committee of the Kitchener-Waterloo Chamber of Commerce.

He told reporters his campaign will focus on promoting changes the Liberal government have made to health care and education during the last nine years. He rejected the notion that the byelection could turn into a referendum on whether Premier Dalton McGuinty deserves another majority mandate.

“A majority isn’t hanging in the balance. There’s a Vaughan byelection as well which is called simultaneously. We’ll have to see how both byelections work out. What we’re focused on is . . . the local race.”

Mr. Lawyer is playing with words. They need to win both to get a one seat majority.

Lord Palmerston

And the Tories are running Tony Genco again in Vaughan:

http://www.ontariopc.com/news/tony-genco-running-for-ontario-pcs-in-vaug...

felixr

Vaughan is a seat I could see the NDP winning if they won government. That alone is reason enough to target it. It is also a good test of any efforts by the NDP to expand their support into new demographics.

Lord Palmerston

I doubt it.  They didn't come even close to taking the area that now constitutes Vaughan riding in 1990 and it's one of the weakest ridings for the party in the whole province!  It's a wealthy 905 riding and very nouveau riche suburban: not exactly NDP demographics.

Wilf Day

Stockholm wrote:
Vaughan is and will always be one of the NDP's weakest ridings in the whole province.

Well, until 2015. It has 196,068 residents, 1.846 quotients. Will one part be better than the other?

Those 196,068 could be in a VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE with about 112,100 residents and a new VAUGHAN—MAPLE also with about 112,100 residents including about 28,100 residents of the present Thornhill. Maple, and the northwest corner of Thornhill, are the best areas for the NDP in both of those ridings. Still not great, but not as weak as the likely VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE.

But we'll see the proposed Ontario boundaries any day now. The other nine Commissions have now released proposals.

Robo

(Double post)

Robo

Wilf Day wrote:

Stockholm wrote:
Vaughan is and will always be one of the NDP's weakest ridings in the whole province.

Well, until 2015. ...

While the next federal election is fairly certain to occur no earlier than 2015, the minority government in Ontario means that a provincial election could occur earlier and under new boundaries. Since provincial boundaries are deemed (at least until provincial legislation changes) to be identical to federal boundaries in southern Ontario, the impending changes federally could result in an election taking place provincially in Ontario in advance of the 2015 federal election.
The PCs got almost as many votes but many fewer seats in 2011 than the provincial Liberals by winning big in "small town Ontario" to the west and east of the GTA while making no breakthroughs in the GTA or Toronto itself. Since the GTA will disproporionately gain new seats with the impending redistribution, the provincial Liberals may convince themselves that they have a strategic advantage in getting new boundaries into place as quickly as possible -- perhaps even more quickly than the currrent federal legislation allows the new proposals to take effect federally -- so as to get their majority through redistribution. Someone else can do the poll-by-poll analysis, but I have no doubt that, had the 2011 Ontario election somehow taken place based on the boundaries that are about to be proposed, the McGuinty Liberals would have won enough seats to be just over a majority in the Legislature instead of just under. While annoying in terms of motivation, that approach IMHO is actually democratic (by providing greater representation by population as soon as practical, rather than later).

adma

Wilf Day wrote:

Stockholm wrote:
Vaughan is and will always be one of the NDP's weakest ridings in the whole province.

Well, until 2015. It has 196,068 residents, 1.846 quotients. Will one part be better than the other?

Those 196,068 could be in a VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE with about 112,100 residents and a new VAUGHAN—MAPLE also with about 112,100 residents including about 28,100 residents of the present Thornhill. Maple, and the northwest corner of Thornhill, are the best areas for the NDP in both of those ridings. Still not great, but not as weak as the likely VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE.

But we'll see the proposed Ontario boundaries any day now. The other nine Commissions have now released proposals.

Though I suspect that even a Vaughan-Maple would be a longshot, unless the NDP is positioned for a Peterson '87-type landslide...

adma

Oh, for the record, I'm hearing of a Forum poll that shows the Libs and PC tiwd at 36 and the NDP at 20 in K-W.  (And since I'm not Debater, you can't accuse me of posting info with some kind of malicious agenda;-))

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