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Kitchener-Waterloo byelection
July 12, 2012 - 12:02pm
It has just been announced that Catherine Fife the chair of the Waterloo school board and President of the Ontario Association of Public School Board Trustees will seek the NDP nomination in K-W...the Tories have already nominated and the liberals are still searching high and low for someone willing to run for them. With Fife this could be winnable for the NDP IMHO.
you betcha Stockholm - we're in this for the win & with Catherine we will win!
Catherine Fife, trustee and chair of the Waterloo Region District School Board and president of the Ontario Public School Boards’ Association, is putting her name forward to run on the NDP ticket in the local by-election to fill the seat vacated by former Tory MPP Elizabeth Witmer.
The NDP nomination meeting is scheduled for July 26. Fife made her announcement Thursday morning in the Waterloo Public Square.
Fife seeks NDP nominationIn a press release, Fife said she was motivated to run for MPP by “both a real concern about the direction of this province and an interest in providing strong representation for Kitchener-Waterloo at Queen’s Park.”
“I’m confident that the NDP’s growing support in this province will translate into a tight three-way race in the coming byelection,” Fife said. “I’m obviously hoping to not only win the NDP nomination but also to come out on top when the byelection votes are tallied.”
HNMM, Jim from Waterloo wrote with virtual ivisible type!
I think it is winnable too.
this is what happens when you're riding high in the polls! great news! an excellent addition to caucus, a nice little grab off the tories, and a firmer hold on the balance of power in ontario's assembly: hard not to get excited about this race.
Indeed. D’Amato: Don’t count out ‘Elizabeth Left’ in byelection (KW Record)
If Karen Scian wins the OLP nom, interesting situation with all 4 main parties running female candidates. Anyone know the last time that happened in a by-election?
Catherine Fife is the only candidate, running for the NDP, who has been tested "electorially" and won, as a school trustee. In fact, in the last municipal election, we won every single poll. The other partys' candidates are really unknown to the voters.
I'd vote for Catherine. Very impressive.
Liberal nomination candidate Karen Scian is a city councillor so presumably she's been 'tested' by the voters as well.
ETA: I am rooting for Catherine, though.
Don't know about by-elections, but it happened on my side of the country in Vancouver Centre for the 2011 federal election. Hedy Fry (Lib), Karen Shillington (NDP), Jennifer Clarke (Con), Adriane Carr (Green).
Oh! Vancouver-Fairview provincial by-election was Jenn McGinn (BCNDP), Margaret MacDiarmid (BCLIB) and Jane Sterk (BC Green). The Conservative was a guy but wasn't part of the debates and they weren't a going concern at that point in time.
And actually, it happened in none other but K-W provincially in 2007 (Witmer and Fife included).
Incidentally, I've yet to calculate 2011 provincial numbers, but here's the admittedly rough 2011 federal numbers for K-W divvied up into geographic sectors (including 400 polls, but excluding 500 polls, advance and special)
laurelwood--Con 1970 (44.32), Lib 1620 (36.45), NDP 663 (14.92), GP 161 (3.62), PP 24 (.54), Ind 4 (.09), ML 3 (.07)
rummelhardt--Con 1878 (44.28), Lib 1608 (37.92), NDP 564 (13.30), GP 175 (4.13), PP 6 (.14), Ind 6 (.14), ML 4 (.09)
northfield--Con 2256 (43.68), Lib 1677 (32.47), NDP 926 (17.93), GP 262 (5.07), PP 19 (.37), Ind 16 (.31), ML 9 (.17)
lexington--Con 4491 (47.81), Lib 3060 (32.57), NDP 1405 (14.96), GP 386 (4.11), Ind 22 (.23), PP 20 (.21), ML 10 (.11)
university--Lib 1193 (41.77), Con 790 (27.66), NDP 662 (23.18), GP 162 (5.67), PP 31 (1.09), Ind 13 (.46), ML 5 (.18)
ec waterloo--Lib 2534 (37.54), Con 2522 (37.36), NDP 1240 (18.37), GP 394 (5.84), PP 30 (.44), Ind 24 (.36), ML 6 (.09)
beechwood--Lib 1296 (46.50), Con 975 (34.98), NDP 380 (13.63), GP 117 (4.20), PP 12 (.43), Ind 6 (.22), ML 1 (.04)
wc waterloo--Lib 1380 (47.21), Con 901 (30.82), NDP 393 (13.45), GP 231 (7.90), PP 12 (.41), Ind 5 (.17), ML 1 (.03)
westvale--Con 1598 (42.26), Lib 1362 (36.02), NDP 624 (16.50), GP 176 (4.65), PP 11 (.29), Ind 6 (.16), ML 4 (.11)
nw kitchener--Con 1777 (44.58), Lib 1187 (29.78), NDP 870 (21.83), GP 119 (2.99), PP 14 (.35), Ind 13 (.33), ML 6 (.15)
nc kitchener--Lib 1266 (37.85), Con 1116 (33.36), NDP 674 (20.15), GP 250 (7.47), PP 19 (.57), Ind 15 (.45), ML 5 (.15)
ne kitchener--Con 1202 (38.98), NDP 837 (27.14), Lib 834 (27.04), GP 171 (5.54), PP 22 (.71). Ind 16 (.52), ML 2 (.06)
bridgeport--Con 870 (53.21), Lib 364 (22.26), NDP 326 (19.94), GP 62 (3.79), PP 7 (.43), Ind 4 (.24), ML 2 (.12)
Ontario by-election to be held in Vaughan as Sorbara retires
Okay what do you think the political strategy is here by the Libs? This riding is held both provincially and federally by the Cons, although Sorbara won it handily the last 2 elections.
Interesting reference to the byelection in KW -
After listening to Laurel Broten on "Ontario Today" yesterday, I hope the teachers' federations turn out en masse to work for Catherine Fife. The McGuinty government's willingness to tromp all over collective bargaining legislation, and spead lies right and left, was thoroughly appalling. They need a strong message.
I have friends in Vaughan but they're apolitical so I have no sense of the dynamics there. Are there any good NDP prospects? A Jagmeet Singh could do well in that diverse riding I would think....
Also in the Vaughan riding, the largest ethicity identified is Italian and followed by Jewish.
And the Jewish community is largely a far-northeast rump.
Generally speaking, the NDP *could* test-ride an "Italian strategy" here--a northward version of what's historically worked for them south of Steeles?--but I wouldn't go much further than the test-ride scenario, unless some un-corrupt bigwig from one of the other parties throws in his/her lot as a standard-bearer...
The BCNDP got Joe Trasolini (Italian by birth, ex-mayor of Port Moody) elected here in a by-election. Now that corner of the burbs has always had a bit of an orange streak to it anyway, but perhaps that might be a good case study to start with if you want to consider how the NDP might strategize in Vaughan.
However, one Italian strategy I would veer away from is whatever the brilliant minds of Yorkview came up with for the 1990 Ontario election. Some rookie named George Mammoliti became the leading homophobe of the NDP government caucus, and is now (going by Giorgio these days) Rob Ford's best buddy on Toronto city council.
Is there anyone even vaguely left-leaning in the past 10 years of Vaughan's municipal politics?
An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.
The opinion of those commenting here seems to be that the NDP does indeed have a competitive advantage in the K-W byelection. I'm not writing to refute that opinion, but rather to suggest what might have been done were the situation otherwise.
The NDP might have considered not running a candidate at all. However, since the byelection will be considered a referendum on the performance of the minority government to date, the party would need to participate in some way--but how?
Perhaps by involving itself in the election as an intervenor at the level of provincial policy, as a friend of the court, so to speak, by which I mean the court of public opinion:
For such a campaign, the party could have appealled for $ from NDP supporters province-wide--much as it is actually doing, but, I believe, with hope for a better response.
Or so it seems to me, eh?!
If that were so cut-and-dried a case, then most Alberta federal Cons should be acclaimed. However, electorally speaking, that's no fun...
Poll: Vaughan byelection up for grabs
I'll do some snip and clip here:
So it doesn't say but WHO paid for this poll? And furthermore, and which party's interest does it serve to release that information? My guess Liberal because it's to work like push polling in to tap down the NDP vote in Vaugh by suggesting "no hope", and yet not one candidate has been nominated yet, for any party.
Also, once again alluding to Catherine ahead in K/W. But also, quite weird that a poll was run in Vaugh and yet not one done in K/W although it was called a long time ago??? Perhaps a poll was done by Forum for a "party of interest" but they don't want to release those results.
What do others think is going on here?
Forum routinely does polls for free for the Toronto Star that no one pays for. Since they use computers to robo-poll the riding - it costs them almost nothing and they get publicity for themselves. I see no conspiracy here. They did a poll in Waterloo back in April the day after Witmer announced she was resigning - just testing the parties with no candidate names. This time they polled Vaughan the day after Sorbara announced he was resigning - again just party names and no candidates (for obvious reasons since no one has been nominated).
It makes no sense to poll in Waterloo right now since the Liberals are not nominating a candidate until Thursday - why do a poll when only two out of three of the major candidates have been chosen when you can wait three days and test all the parties and candidate names??
As for Vaughan, I really don't give a damn that it shows the NDP out of the running - Vaughan is and will always be one of the NDP's weakest ridings in the whole province. That riding is mostly ostentatious mansions belong to second generation Italian-Canadians - many of whom made their fortune in the construction industry employing non-union labour - if anyone can think of a riding with worse demographic for the NDP than that - please tell us. If anything, I'm impressed that the Forum poll in Vaughan has the NDP at 15% - that is a full 4 points ABOVE the 11% the NDP had in that riding last October! If the NDP vote in Vaughan falls - it won't be because anyone "votes "strategically" for ther Liberals. Why would they? its a BY-ELECTION - if the Liberals win it only brings them closer to having a majority and reducing the NDP's influence. What is more likely to happen is the ONDP will spend almost no money in Vaughan and focus 99% of its efforts in Waterloo and a lot of peopl;e who might vote NDOP in a general election will instead just stay home and not bother voting at all. Keep in mind that in the federal byelection in Vaughan in 2010 that elected Fantino - the NDP took ONE p[ercent of the vote!
thanks Stock, I didn't realize that Forum had done a poll for Waterloo the day after an election. That seems silly and a waste because of the optics of the Libs buying off a PC.
Not everybody living in Vaugh would be an owner of a construction company and obviously 15% support suggests there are folks there who want to vote NDP.
No fun whatsoever for those who experience politics as games or (a la Hedges et. al.) theatre, eh?! But for others, . . .
Another byelection in which the party might consider running a policy rather than a personal campaign.
Not sure what you are getting at Grandpa Bill, so are you suggesting that the NDP should not run a candidate in Vaughn? What about W/K?
Strange to say, that's the idea, JftB:
Bizarre, eh?!
Yeah, I know what you mean: the old "Ralph Nader elected Dubyah" argument
But ultimately, an overinsistence upon such "competitive advantage" is like an overinsistence upon the only way from Toronto to Windsor being along 400-series highways...