Kitchener-Waterloo byelection

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janfromthebruce

I checked the Forum site to see what polls they have done (although locked). It only mentions Vaugh and no mention of a K/W poll.

https://www.forumresearch.com/Polls.asp?scope=

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

adma wrote:

Oh, for the record, I'm hearing of a Forum poll that shows the Libs and PC tiwd at 36 and the NDP at 20 in K-W.  (And since I'm not Debater, you can't accuse me of posting info with some kind of malicious agenda;-))

If that poll is accurate, it actually gives the NDP at least an outside shot at pulling off an upset, or, at the very least, a reasonable chance of finishing ahead of the Liberals should their candidate make one or two significant mistakes in the last weeks of the campaign.

janfromthebruce

We are here for the win Ken, and nothing less. A well known and respected, and popularly elected (many times) school trustee (chair) with both a high provincial recognizition compared to unknown lib candidate and relatively unknown con candidate.

adma

Though I wouldn't be so brash as to label Eric Rogers "unknown"; after all, he did quite well (and in a way that suggests "personal credentials") vs Witmer last year in an election that generally didn't favour Grits vs Tory incumbents...

Robo

adma wrote:

Though I wouldn't be so brash as to label Eric Rogers "unknown"; after all, he did quite well (and in a way that suggests "personal credentials") vs Witmer last year in an election that generally didn't favour Grits vs Tory incumbents...

Well, then, I guess Eric Davis has the same "personal credentials" as Dominic Ursini, Elizabeth Roy, and other good second place finishers from the last provincial election. In a general election, most people vote on province-wide issues, to some extent under the influence of a relatively "thick" advertizing blitz during the election period. In other words, the local candidate matters less during a general election.

In a by-election, local candidates tend to matter more, as the province-wide advertising presence does not exist. Having a prominent candidate does not guarantee success -- but the local candidate's profile does matter more in a by-election than a general election.

adma

Robo wrote:
Well, then, I guess Eric Davis has the same "personal credentials" as Dominic Ursini, Elizabeth Roy, and other good second place finishers from the last provincial election. In a general election, most people vote on province-wide issues, to some extent under the influence of a relatively "thick" advertizing blitz during the election period. In other words, the local candidate matters less during a general election. In a by-election, local candidates tend to matter more, as the province-wide advertising presence does not exist. Having a prominent candidate does not guarantee success -- but the local candidate's profile does matter more in a by-election than a general election.

Even so, I wouldn't be *that* dismissive.  Unlike Elizabeth Roy, Eric Davis actually increased his Liberal share and narrowed the margin w/a Tory incumbent--in a way that suggest something stronger than a mere generic "province-wide" blitz effect.

Indeed, Davis in 2011 might even be viewed as a determined "practice run" for the present--much like Fife's 2007 run (or Witmer's 1987 run relative to 1990).  So, let's not be too fatally hasty in judging him an also-ran...

Stockholm

No details yet - but Forum has been tweeting that they now have the PCs in the lead in K-W...obviously there never was a 36-36-20 poll..

Stockholm

Forum just released their poll of K-W in the Toronto Star:

PC - 34% (down 9 points from Oct. 2011 election)

NDP - 30% (up 13 points)

Libs - 30% (down 6 points)

How do you like them apples?

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1241559--ontario-lib...

David Young

Stockholm wrote:

Forum just released their poll of K-W in the Toronto Star:

PC - 34% (down 9 points from Oct. 2011 election)

NDP - 30% (up 13 points)

Libs - 30% (down 6 points)

How do you like them apples?

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1241559--ontario-lib...

So.....

The third-place New Democrats have a 13% jump in support, and the article doesn't mention the K.W. NDP candidate Catherine Fife once????

Can anyone doubt the media bias against the NDP?

Go Catherine!!!!!

 

janfromthebruce

Yeah, I suppose the "rumour" was just that - a rumour and mucking about. The only candidate with momentum is obviously Catherine. Take note popularity of provincial leaders

Despite gains for the PCs, leader Tim Hudak is stuck at 25 per cent approval, compared with 49 per cent for NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and 33 per cent for McGuinty.

Even in Vaugh, Horwath got better leader numbers

Conversely, McGuinty dropped to 31 per cent approval from 32 per cent, while Hudak jumped five points to 29 per cent from 24, according to Forum, which surveyed 327 Vaughan residents on Saturday and Sunday. Horwath earned top approval with 32 per cent.

 

Ippurigakko

So you think this riding will be NDP victory?

 

PC 34% (+2)
NDP 30% (+10)
LIB 30% (-9)
GRN 4% (-3)

18-34
LIB 39% (-7)
NDP 35% (+11)
PC 16% (+3)
GRN 7% (-6)

35-44
NDP 37% (+22)
PC 31% (-1)
LIB 26% (-15)
GRN 6% (-5)

45-54
NDP 33% (+10)
PC 33% (-2)
LIB 30% (-7)
GRN 3% (-2)

55-64
PC 36% (+4)
NDP 30% (+10)
LIB 29% (-16)
GRN 5% (+2)

65+
PC 48% (+3)
LIB 28% (=)
NDP 20% (+1)
GRN 5% (-3)

Male
PC 39% (+6)
LIB 31% (-7)
NDP 25% (+5)
GRN 5% (-3)

Female
NDP 36% (+16)
LIB 30% (-10)
PC 29% (-3)
GRN 4% (-2)

Past Vote
PC <- PC 75%, DidntVote 23%, GRN 18%, LIB 6%, NDP 6%, OTH 4%
NDP <- NDP 79%, DV 59%, OTH 50%, GRN 25%, LIB 25%, PC 12%
LIB <- LIB 66%, GRN 22%, DV 17%, PC 10%, NDP 10%, OTH 9%
GRN <- GRN 33%, OTH 15%, NDP 6%, PC 3%, LIB 2%, DV 0%

 

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/0995...

madmax

post deleted... strange thing happened in quote....

madmax

adma wrote:

Oh, for the record, I'm hearing of a Forum poll that shows the Libs and PC tiwd at 36 and the NDP at 20 in K-W.  (And since I'm not Debater, you can't accuse me of posting info with some kind of malicious agenda;-))

Looks like its a 3 way race instead of a desired 2 way race....

Good for KW..

janfromthebruce

I'm thinking that it's going to break for Catherine as momentum builds and the libs become more unhinged with their rating in the press about the teachers, oh and the purposeful mis-information is unbelievable. They sure like to out right lie.

Brachina

Ippurigakko wrote:

So you think this riding will be NDP victory?

 

PC 34% (+2)
NDP 30% (+10)
LIB 30% (-9)
GRN 4% (-3)

18-34
LIB 39% (-7)
NDP 35% (+11)
PC 16% (+3)
GRN 7% (-6)

35-44
NDP 37% (+22)
PC 31% (-1)
LIB 26% (-15)
GRN 6% (-5)

45-54
NDP 33% (+10)
PC 33% (-2)
LIB 30% (-7)
GRN 3% (-2)

55-64
PC 36% (+4)
NDP 30% (+10)
LIB 29% (-16)
GRN 5% (+2)

65+
PC 48% (+3)
LIB 28% (=)
NDP 20% (+1)
GRN 5% (-3)

Male
PC 39% (+6)
LIB 31% (-7)
NDP 25% (+5)
GRN 5% (-3)

Female
NDP 36% (+16)
LIB 30% (-10)
PC 29% (-3)
GRN 4% (-2)

Past Vote
PC <- PC 75%, DidntVote 23%, GRN 18%, LIB 6%, NDP 6%, OTH 4%
NDP <- NDP 79%, DV 59%, OTH 50%, GRN 25%, LIB 25%, PC 12%
LIB <- LIB 66%, GRN 22%, DV 17%, PC 10%, NDP 10%, OTH 9%
GRN <- GRN 33%, OTH 15%, NDP 6%, PC 3%, LIB 2%, DV 0%

 

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/0995...

That's so acheingly close, I predict a nail biter on By-Election night. And an NDP victory.

adma

Who's running in Vaughan?

edmundoconnor

Paul Donofrio. He ran in the same riding in 2011.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I hope that poll is accurate...if so, it indicates the NDP is surging and the Liberals are collapsing.  It might be time to ask Liberal voters in K-W to "vote strategically" for Catherine Fife!

janfromthebruce

Interestingly, the Libs willingly and with no regard decided to throw all education employers and all school boards under the bus - he called it a roadmap, but really it's roadkill.

JimWaterloo

An interesting blog post by a former NDP candidate, Cameron Dearlove. Case for voting strategic for the NDP.

http://thedearlove.com/2012/08/kw-by-election-time-is-ripe-to-end-strategic-voting-in-waterloo-region/

janfromthebruce

It's an interesting article and very well written.

Brachina

http://theliberalscarf.blogspot.ca/2012/08/students-putting-students-fir...

Why is this person concidered a progressive blogger? Trying to pit students against teachers is literally from Mike Harris' playbook and I believe it was condemned by the Liberals when Harris tried it.

janfromthebruce

There was a huge rally today in front of the legislature about this "putting politics, I mean students first" act. Also a super article in Toronto Star today where finally, it seems an opinion writer finally does not repeat the liberal or conservative lies and states the simple truth.

I am actually seeing the worm turn here, and it doesn't look good for the Liberals.

Walkom: McGuinty teacher gambit attacks the middle class

Dalton McGuinty’s attack on teachers’ trade union rights is ultimately an attack on the middle class. It is misguided and unnecessary.

It is also unfair.

McGuinty’s archly named Putting Students First bill is unnecessary because it seeks to end, through a two-year strike ban, a labour dispute that does not exist.

 

Tim Hudak’s Conservatives are at least up front on this issue. Hudak seems to believe that unions are evil. He is an honest troglodyte.

The Liberals are more duplicitous. They work to cripple trade unionism while protesting that they are friends to the middle class that such unions protect.

This fight isn’t just about teachers.

Brachina

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1248928--cohn-dalton...

Cohn calls this a manufacted crisis and reminds readers of what Dalton said to Harris when Harris manufactured a crisis.

janfromthebruce

Libs/tories same old, same old

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The Star actually went there...used the worst possible pun of the campaign:

"Kitchener could be Tim Hudak's Waterloo"

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1250258--cohn-kitchener-could...

Brachina

Anyone else keeps hear,Waterloo by Abba when thinking about this campaign?

janfromthebruce

no, I'm thinking "one more door, one  more voter, good vibes all around in KitWat.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I keep wondering if the Tory canvassers shout "Make Way For Lord Kitchener!" as they carry their handouts down the streets.

autoworker autoworker's picture

Have any of the parties' candidates discussed future investments in R&D, or technology inputs needed to maintain, and grow, the knowledge-based economy of the K-W region? How are the different candidates addressing the problems at RIM, and their effects on the region's economy?

Brachina

http://www.flyingsquirrel.ca/index.php/2012/09/02/by-election/comment-pa...

A revolt in the Liberal ranks over Dalton's actions, its clear Dalton must be afraid Catherine's going to take it.

Brachina

http://www.catherinefife.com/mulcair-and-horwath-catherine-fife-is-the-b...

From Catherine Fife's website, Tom Mulcair, Andrea Horwath, and Catherine Fife along with 200 volunteers. I'm glad Tom's particapating along with Andrea and Catherine.

Very Far Away

I was there today. Thomas Mulcair and Andrea Horwath's speeches were short but to the point. Both of them were elected in by-elections and they said this would be the case for Catherine Fife:) 

It will be a very interesting riding to watch. If Liberals win, they will have the majority. If Cons win, we will have the statusquo. If NDP wins, this could be the start of orange wave in Ontario. Let's hope for the best.

autoworker autoworker's picture

Brachina wrote:
http://www.catherinefife.com/mulcair-and-horwath-catherine-fife-is-the-b...

From Catherine Fife's website, Tom Mulcair, Andrea Horwath, and Catherine Fife along with 200 volunteers. I'm glad Tom's particapating along with Andrea and Catherine.

It's interesting that Mulcair sees fit to weigh in on an Ontario election, but not a peep from him about Quebec's.

Policywonk

autoworker wrote:
Brachina wrote:
http://www.catherinefife.com/mulcair-and-horwath-catherine-fife-is-the-b... From Catherine Fife's website, Tom Mulcair, Andrea Horwath, and Catherine Fife along with 200 volunteers. I'm glad Tom's particapating along with Andrea and Catherine.
It's interesting that Mulcair sees fit to weigh in on an Ontario election, but not a peep from him about Quebec's.

Who would he weigh in behind? There is no Provincial NDP yet.

knownothing knownothing's picture

 

Exactly

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I think that poster is angry that Mulcair isn't telling Quebec federal NDP supporters to denounce Quebec Solidaire and work to make sure QS does badly in tomorrow's election, so that(I'm guessing) Mulcair can justify creating a Quebec NDP for the next National Assembly election.  Probably wants Mulcair to endorse the so-called"Quebec Liberals"(even though that would mean giving up on all NDP principles) just to make sure that happens.

Never mind that doing so would mean supporting the death of the Quebec student movement and the permanent enshrinement of neoliberal economics in Quebec.

(sorry for the thread drift, but those who haven't been following the Quebec election threads need to know that that's what it's about.)

janfromthebruce

Very Far Away wrote:

I was there today. Thomas Mulcair and Andrea Horwath's speeches were short but to the point. Both of them were elected in by-elections and they said this would be the case for Catherine Fife:) 

It will be a very interesting riding to watch. If Liberals win, they will have the majority. If Cons win, we will have the statusquo. If NDP wins, this could be the start of orange wave in Ontario. Let's hope for the best.

It's interesting but the Libs weren't technology get a majority if they won. The Speaker of the House is a Liberal but actually is forbidden to vote on a tie. Thus, he would have to step down. Remember a tied motion is a failed motion.

The libs have now gone full out with distribution of mispresention materials door to door. They are showing complete desperation. The Waterloo Record, the local paper, said the liberals do not to deserve a majority and not to support them.

Here's the link. Ontario’s fate in K-W’s hands

Excerpts

Fife’s communication skills and political experience were especially impressive at the Election Forum held by this newspaper on Monday. In his second attempt to win the seat in as many years, Davis displayed forcefulness and maturity. And while Weiler is newer to the political arena, she shows passion and commitment.

Their decision in the closing days of the last election to cancel construction of a generating station in Mississauga and improve their chances of winning seats in that area was politics at its worst. It was reprehensible and will cost beleaguered Ontario taxpayers $190 million. Meanwhile, the ongoing scandal surrounding Ornge, the province’s air ambulance service, has shredded the Liberals’ reputation as capable managers of public services and the public purse. A damning report by Auditor General Jim McCarter pointed to shady bookkeeping at Ornge as well as ridiculously high per-patient costs and declining service levels. How could the Liberals have let this mess stew and fester for so long?

This record of cynical politicking and inept management should not be rewarded on Sept. 6.

Both Progressive Conservatives and the NDP have proven that the current minority government can work and serve the interests of Ontario. Both parties have leaders — Tim Hudak for the Conservatives, Andrea Horwath for the NDP — who have grown in stature, wisdom and experience since last fall’s general election. Voters across Ontario would benefit from having more time to observe them in opposition in a minority situation and to assess their fitness for the premier’s office.

It comes down to this. The Sept. 6 byelection is a referendum to decide whether Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals deserve a majority government. In Kitchener-Waterloo the answer should be a resounding no.

I'm thinking that the Record likes Catherine the best just by how the article read.

 

janfromthebruce

Libs are just not classy!

Mulcair denounces ‘right-leaning’ McGuinty at K-W rally

A group of Liberal party supporters attempted to spoil the show as Mulcair and Horwath arrived. They carried signs denouncing Mulcair as being “silent on separation” of Quebec and chanted before breaking into a rendition of O Canada.

NDP supporters attempted to surround the Liberals with orange signs and banners.

Mulcair told reporters he’s always “stood up strongly for Canada.”

“I fought in the 1980 referendum, I fought in the 1995 referendum. All of my political career has been spent in the front trenches of the (Quebec) National Assembly fighting for Canada.”

He said his party stayed out of the Quebec provincial election but waded into the K-W byelection because the NDP does not exist as a provincial party in Quebec, but that the NDP plans to establish a provincial wing in Quebec that will be ready to contest the next general election.

 

 

Horwath said that the Liberals’ ongoing contract dispute with teachers, which had become the subject of mean-spirited online and flyer advertisements distributed by the local Liberal campaign over the weekend, would become moot when parents saw that schools would be open the next day.

“Kids are going to back to the classroom tomorrow. Teachers are going to be there. The parents are going to be dropping off their children. School will start tomorrow as it always was going to start.”

So McGuinty decides to throw teachers and ed workers under the bridge, blame it on them, to win a by election in KW. That was after he bribed the local PC MPP with a sweet paying job at the head of a govt organization.

Now I feel dirty.

Brachina

My instincts tell me its between the Tories and the NDP. I keep hearing that the the Liberal signs are being swarmed out by NDP signs.

I mean even my Dad whose fairly anti union and teachers thinks McGuinity's being an asshole.

Mark my words this one will blow up in Dalton's face.

And its Dalton who should feel dirty, not you Jan.

@Very Far Away it sounds like you guys are doing a great Job, were routing for you guys!

@Asshole Liberals who display thier ignorance for all to see. Those slimy bench warmers who at best watched from thier sofas while Mulcair was working his ass off in 2 referumdums and six elections against Seperatist parties, think to call Thomas Mulcair a Seperatist are the lowest f'ing scum of the earth. Sad part is is that people unfamiliar with Mulcair record maybe convinced.

I wanted the Liberals defeated before, because Dalton doesn't deserve a Majority and Catherine Fife is wonderful. Now its personal, this is just the latest dishonest slander, I want them defeated to send a message to Dalton that your disgusting lies won't work.

theleftyinvestor

While rationally I do understand why it is that Mulcair has waded into Ontario by-elections but not a Quebec general election, it sure makes for one of those amusing "Canadian Heritage Moment" situtations. Mulcair tweeted about going to the Fife rally, and my friend replied with "Glad your position's clear on the most important prov elxn on now!"

janfromthebruce

Brachina, the libs are really getting desparate and are throwing everything at Fife with a "wing and prayer" that something sticks.

janfromthebruce

okay, a teaser for tomorrow  - how will I sleep. 3 tweets from Forum research

1.

Forum Research Inc. ‏@ForumResearch

Ontario Liberals won't get their majority, but who gets Kitchener-Waterloo? Find out in the Star

2.

Forum Research Inc. ‏@ForumResearch

Liberals to win big in Vaughan by-election; September 4 Forum Poll™

3.

Forum Research Inc. ‏@ForumResearch

We polled Kitchener-Waterloo tonight, look for results in Wednesday's Star. Big upset!

 

Okay, so we know that it's between the PCs and the NDP. The PC candidate although nice is new to politics and it showed. I've been working at the KitWat campaign, and the majority - vast majority of the signs are orange.

Hudak has made some public statements that are a bit of climb downs, so perhaps their polling isn't showing a blue win. And I'm just thinking that a "big upset" could only be orange. Nothing changes if it's the blue door in terms of seat count but it would be a upset if it was an orange door - they always suggest it's a "upset" when it's orange.

Okay, I climbed out on a limb and hope I'm right. https://twitter.com/ForumResearch/status/243178291937288192

 

Threads

Let's see.  One Forum tweet says outright that the Liberals won't get their majority.  So either the poll has the Liberals out of contention, or what Forum just did there is basically say "The Liberals are at worst competitive in the byelection, but even if Eric Davis (their candidate) wins it and Levac resigns as Speaker after he's sworn in it's not like any Tories or New Democrats will be offering for the position of Speaker because all the Liberals have to do is vote en masse for some-not-one of their own and voila majority!" in the most obtusely roundabout way they could.  That latter explanation is basically too silly (and doesn't really jive with the "big upset" tweet unless Davis is running away with it), so I'm going to conclude that the poll doesn't have the Liberals competitive.

That leaves one of four possible results, not mutually exclusive:

(1) Fife is leading, possibly outside the margin of error

(2) the Green is competitive?!

(3) a candidate from a party smaller than the Greens is beating at least one of Fife/Weiler/Davis!?

(4) Fife's campaign is a dud

josh

The NDP appears set to win a by-election that Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty engineered in a Progressive Conservative riding with hopes of regaining a majority, a new poll suggests.

In the last major survey before Thursday’s vote in Kitchener-Waterloo, Forum Research found NDP candidate Catherine Fife, chair of the Ontario Public School Boards Association, at 42 per cent.

That’s well ahead of the Liberals’ Eric Davis, at 26 per cent, and, more surprisingly, the Tories’ Tracey Weiler, at 26 per cent. The Greens’ Stacey Danckert was at 6 per cent.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1251330--ndp-is-on-track-to-win-kitchener-waterloo-by-election-poll-suggests

 

adma

Okay, then: the NDP's set to win w/a phoney majority.  Unite the right! Wink

janfromthebruce

Threads wrote:

Let's see.  One Forum tweet says outright that the Liberals won't get their majority.  So either the poll has the Liberals out of contention, or what Forum just did there is basically say "The Liberals are at worst competitive in the byelection, but even if Eric Davis (their candidate) wins it and Levac resigns as Speaker after he's sworn in it's not like any Tories or New Democrats will be offering for the position of Speaker because all the Liberals have to do is vote en masse for some-not-one of their own and voila majority!" in the most obtusely roundabout way they could.  That latter explanation is basically too silly (and doesn't really jive with the "big upset" tweet unless Davis is running away with it), so I'm going to conclude that the poll doesn't have the Liberals competitive.

That leaves one of four possible results, not mutually exclusive:

(1) Fife is leading, possibly outside the margin of error

(2) the Green is competitive?!

(3) a candidate from a party smaller than the Greens is beating at least one of Fife/Weiler/Davis!?

(4) Fife's campaign is a dud

 

geez, your 4 door choices weren't even close to this - outside of the margin of error by "a mile" - no wonder the libs were pulling out every dirty trick they had in their stupid red bag. Off to KitWat

autoworker autoworker's picture

Should the Forum polls prove accurate, it's Hudak who'll be the loser, on both counts: for the lack of confidence (some might argue: opportunism) by a senior caucus member, and former cabinet minister (the reason for the by-election in K-W ), and with voters in a riding that generally votes whichever way the wind blows. Hudak's the reason the Ontario Liberals haven't been forced to reinvent themselves.

Brachina

theleftyinvestor wrote:

While rationally I do understand why it is that Mulcair has waded into Ontario by-elections but not a Quebec general election, it sure makes for one of those amusing "Canadian Heritage Moment" situtations. Mulcair tweeted about going to the Fife rally, and my friend replied with "Glad your position's clear on the most important prov elxn on now!"

His position is clear. His position is he'll get position next election ;p

Seriously his position is he plans on thier being a QNDP next time.

Not that it should matter in an Ontario provincial bielection! :D

Brachina

Big moral here, don't fuck with teacher unions!

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