Kitchener-Waterloo byelection

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Brachina

Apparently Daltons doubled down on stupidity. If his goofy attack on teacher unions isn't enough, he's planning on picking a fight with Fire Fighters unions, Police unions, healthcare unions, and other essencial service unions. These ads from teachers could be just the first volley.

http://ochuleftwords.blogspot.ca/2012/09/mcguinty-neatly-stokes-interest...(Leftwords)&m=1

nicky

Does anyone know where the NDP party will be tomorrow night?

Brachina
janfromthebruce

Nicky, for KW election, it will be the Waterloo Inn. Kiss

janfromthebruce

Autoworker, I think that McGuinty will be taking the "full load" on this: for tangling a high-paying job to Witmer who took the bait. The cost to elect an NDP MPP: under 200 grand for job for Witmer; severance pay (well over 100 grand) for Witmer; and one by election (I'm guessing but let's say 1/2 million) of our tax dollars. Now that's "precious"! Kiss

Ippurigakko

Kit-Waterloo gonna NDP!

Forum research - sept 5

nearly 700 samples

NDP 42% (+12)
PC 26% (-8)
LIB 26% (-4)
GRN 6% (+2)

18-34
NDP 42% (+7)
LIB 28% (-11)
PC 17% (+1)
GRN 12% (+5)

35-44
NDP 57% (+20)
LIB 24% (-2)
PC 12% (-19)
GRN 7% (+1)

45-54
NDP 41% (+8)
LIB 30% (=)
PC 25% (-8)
GRN 4% (+1)

55-64
NDP 40% (+10)
PC 32% (-4)
LIB 23% (-6)
GRN 4% (-1)

65+
PC 40% (-8)
NDP 32% (+12)
LIB 26% (-2)
GRN 2% (-3)

Male
NDP 33% (+8)
PC 31% (-8)
LIB 29% (-2)
GRN 7% (+2)

Female
NDP 50% (+14)
LIB 24% (-6)
PC 22% (-7)
GRN 5% (+1)

Past vote

NDP <- NDP 85%, LIB 45%, DidntVote 41%, GRN 40%, PC 23%, OTH 0%
PC <- PC 60%, OTH 45%, DidntVote 19%, GRN 7%, LIB 6%, NDP 5%,
LIB <- LIB 46%, OTH 31%, DidntVote 22%, PC 15%, GRN 9%, NDP 7%
GRN <- GRN 43%, OTH 21%, DidntVote 18%, LIB 4%, NDP 3%, PC 2%

-------------

Vaughan going Lib

LIB 49% (+2)
PC 37% (+1)
NDP 11% (+2)
GRN 3% (=)

ctrl190

Polls just closed. Election night results can be found here:

http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp

theleftyinvestor

Still only 6 polls in. At 3 polls the Liberal was leading. At 4 it was PC. At 5 and 6 it's NDP. 

Ippurigakko

Kit-Wat
NDP 36%
PC 34%
LIB 24%
GRN 4%

WillC

with 11 polls, NDP slightly ahead of Tory with Liberal behind more.  Could be the particular polls.

adma

Right now, 11 polls, NDP 36.0, PC 33.7, Lib 24.2,  Not sure if McGuinty expected *that*.

clockwise

That NDP lead is starting to widen a little.  And the Liberal candidate is well behind.  I hope Dalton wears this by-election and the expense of buying an MPP out of office.

theleftyinvestor

16 polls: LIB 23.1, NDP 40.4, PC 32.0

Very Far Away

12 polls out of 265:

NDP: 37.2

PC: 32.3

LP: 24.5

Ippurigakko

NDP 40%!
PC 32%
LIB 23

WillC

The voters of K/W don't want a Liberal majority.  Too soon to call it an Orange Wave. How about an Orange ripple?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Has the CBC called it for Fife yet?

theleftyinvestor

24 polls: LIB 21.5, NDP 46.3 (!), PC 27.2

Ippurigakko

NDP 46%
PC 27%
LIB 23

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It almost looks as if Fife could get a majority of the vote.  That's probably not going to quite happen, but that would make this result even MORE galling for McGuinty.

WillC

Looks like it's all over except the MSM rationalizations.

theleftyinvestor

If this were BC, someone would be prattling on right now about the need to keep Liberals and Conservatives united against the NDP menace. (see Chilliwack-Hope)

WillC

 

dup

ctrl190

Definitely some impressive numbers thus far in KW.

Libs could pick up a majority in Vaughan. Would certain soften the blow of a third place finish in MPP Fife's riding.

Threads

But the Liberals already hold Vaughan.  If the results are (qualitatively) as they stand now, it's basically status quo for the Liberals as far as majority-or-not goes.

ctrl190

Libertarians at the GP's heels for fourth place in Vaughan.

Edit: Liberals declared winners in Vaughan.

theleftyinvestor

At 48 polls it's starting to rebalance a bit.

LIB 23.0, NDP 42.3, PC 30.4

David Young

81 POLLS REPORTING SO FAR...

NDP   4915

PC      3811

LIB     2756

At what point does it get called for the NDP???

 

 

theleftyinvestor

81 polls, LIB 22.9, NDP 40.8, PC 31.6. The lead is >1000 votes.

Also John Turmel has one vote.

WillC

CTV just declared it for Fife. No majority

theleftyinvestor

Yeah the margin of over 1000 votes is holding but the percentage gap is closing with the PCs.

122 polls: LIB 23.6, NDP 40.0, PC 31.8

Sean in Ottawa

Fife has 1500 vote lead but still half the polls to report... 

I assume those calling this know where the polls are coming from? Otherwise I'd say this is a heavy lead but not quite certain depending on the districts. I'd give her 90% chance of winning but would not call this done.

ctrl190

Mike Crawley ‏@CBCQueensPark

CBC declares NDP Catherine Fife elected in Kitchener Waterloo.

David Young

Didn't I read somewhere that this riding (or a previous incarnation) wasn't one that voted NDP in the 1990 provincial election?

 

theleftyinvestor

The gap is now 2000 votes. The % gap does still seem to be very slightly narrowing.

In other words the average of the new polls is still higher in NDP than PC votes, but by a smaller margin than the previous polls.

Doug

This is about as good as it gets. A riding the Liberals badly needed for a majority and ridings, either of which the Tories needed to show they're the government in waiting...DENIED.

theleftyinvestor

The gap is now 2000 votes. The % gap does still seem to be very slightly narrowing.

In other words the average of the new polls is still higher in NDP than PC votes, but by a smaller margin than the previous polls.

Sean in Ottawa

This is where I'd call it-- 

Given the way neighbourhoods can go, I wanted to see more as there are some very anti-NDP parts of this riding. But it looks good now.

JeffWells

David Young wrote:

Didn't I read somewhere that this riding (or a previous incarnation) wasn't one that voted NDP in the 1990 provincial election?

 

 

The riding didn't exist as such, but Witmer won the old riding of Waterloo North in 1990. No idea how much the boundaries overlap.

WillC

It's good to see Fife back over 40%.  Seems like that percentage means a more solid win.  To see if she stays that way, is the only suspense left.

David Young

Any idea of voter turnout %?

theleftyinvestor

Based on the current numbers and number of polls left, and the last election totals, I would say 44% or so turnout.

Ippurigakko

NDP 4,000 margin beat PC.

Brachina

Its 7000 votes above the Liberals who have to find this humiliating.

Important side note, last time I checked the,vote numbers the last three numbers of the Tory total was 666 (full number 13,666), seems right to me :p

Congrat to Catherine and team and the people who had the wits to vote for her.

jerrym

While interpreting byelections results effects on future general elections is always tricky, it seems to me that the victory in Kitchener-Waterloo is sgnifigicant in this regard: not only did Fife win, she increased the NDP % from 16.8% to 40.6% with 263 out of 265 polls reporting. Governments tend to be defeat themselves either in the short- or long-run through the way they govern. Only then does the public tend to examine the opposition as a possible alternative government. Because of the the growing unhappiness with the Liberals governing, this may be a critical time in the determination of the government in the next election. The growing NDP vote and the inability of the Cons to win a riding that they already held or create any growth in their vote in Vaughn suggests that the NDP is starting to position itself more and more as the first alternative to examine as a possible alternative government among many voters, especially because Hudak is offering an ultra-conservative alternative. 

Brachina

I'd also like to applaud those dippers in Vauhan, I believe they got 11.3 for like a 2 percent increase, its a start!

Wilf Day

Final count, compared with 2011 count

Party, 2012; 2011

NDP 18,559; 8,250

PC 14,823; 21,665

Lib 11,204; 17,837

Green 1,516; 1,308

Other 485; 439

Total 46,587; 49,499

Unlike most by-elections, turnout dropped very little. Remarkable. Political scientists will be studying this.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I think that's a reflection as to how transparent McGuinty's attempt to, effectively, buy a parliamentary majority by inducing an opposition MPP to resign ended up being and the degree to which the attempt inflamed the electorate in K-W.

They might just as well have put up huge banners at the Liberal rallies during this by-election that said

"In Case You Haven't Twigged To It Yet...We're Scamming You!  But You're Cool With That...Right??"

nicky

1. Tim Hudak has been particulalry graceless after losing Kitchener-Waterloo, blaming the loss on the public sector unions "buying" the election. What an insult to the voters.

2. Even the Toronto Sun is down on Hudak. Christina Blizzard, normally a cheerleader for the Cons, is very harsh:

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/09/06/byelection-losses-bring-hudaks-leadership-into-question

"As a new day dawns, though, the message is clear: NDP leader Andrea Horwath was the big winner.

And in Kitchener, both McGuinty and Hudak met their Waterloo."

3. I think we can expect Catherine Fife to be around for a while. The turnout in KW seems to have been very high for a byelection. and she seems to highly regarded personally. Her win cannot be attributed to a low turnout.

Under the new redistribution, which I assume will be adopted provincially, the riding becomes simply Waterloo and sheds some outer suburbs where the Cons were relatively strong.

4. The byelection was also held at a time when the student vote was minimized. Fife was therefore at a disadvantage which may disappear if the general election is at a different time.

5. KW is a pretty middle class and well-educated riding. The party only got 17% there in the last provincial election compared to 22% province-wide. The result may reflect a long term advance by the party into a more affluent electorate.

Recent polls, have shown that the NDP has disproportionately expanded its support with this class of voter. It is running ahead or at worst even with te federal Cons in the best educated and highest paid demographics. KW is just the kind of seat where this should be reflected.

It offfers some hope that the NDP can win over similar electorates in other seats and considerably alter the electoral map.

I suspect that the incresingly right-wing shift of the Cons has alienated these voters, much as the Republicans have lost much of their affluent well-educated base. I also think that Tom Mulcair will have a strong appeal to these voters.

 

 

 

toaster

Ken Burch wrote:

I think that's a reflection as to how transparent McGuinty's attempt to, effectively, buy a parliamentary majority by inducing an opposition MPP to resign ended up being and the degree to which the attempt inflamed the electorate in K-W.

Witmer announced that it was actually her husbands cancer diagnosis that led her to resign.  So I don't fault her.

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