Kitchener-Waterloo byelection

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Brachina

Actually it turns out Witmer's husband has cancer, that's why she resigned. She just didn't bother to tell anyone until after the by-election.

http://scottdiatribe.canflag.com/2012/09/07/ontario-voters-wake-up-today...

Scott makes some good points with my favourite being about the NDP being able to use KW as an arguement that they can win in the Suburbs.

Oh and Hudak further humiliated himself by accusing the teacher's union of buying the riding. Meanwhile the donations from corporate and the wealthy keep flowing into his coffers. Hudak the hypocrit.

And now Hudak now has to deal with rumours he's going to be forced out as is Dalton. Personally I doubt either will go as thier probably not enough time to find new leader and no one else wants their jobs.

Stockholm

Brachina wrote:
Actually it turns out Witmer's husband has cancer, that's why she resigned. She just didn't bother to tell anyone until after the by-election.

Seems odd that she never mentioned that before the byelection and let everyone speculate that her resignation was sparked by a rift between her and Hudak.

Brachina

Clearly Witmer has a sense of humour, although Hudak probably does not care for it.

Some people are saying it doesn't mean anything, it was just a protest vote, and that the NDP shouldn't jump to conclusions about meaning. Fair enough. But they shouldn't assume it means nothing either, that would be a foolish mistake. This bielection win comes amidst the back drop of a multidude of events and changing circumstsnces province wide.

Brachina

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/hudak-blames-tsunami-of-publi...

Its omnious Hudak that Unions defend its membership from being punished for rightwing economic stupidity?

I don't get the guy, he's like serial killer who complains that his oppenant hit back and beat him up and had the gull to defend himself instead of meekly dying.

Not to mention the fucking millions his party gets from corporations and the wealthy, the mindless volunteers from rightwing churches, and he has the balls to complain about union members volunteering for the NDP.

Wasn't it Hudak who believes that corporations should be allowed to donate to political parties, but not Unions? Talk about stacking the deck in your favour.

janfromthebruce

Maybe part of the deal was that she couldn't tell her reason for taking the "lib bait" until after the election. Thus her "silence" could be read by her constituency as not happy with Hudak led PC party, and thus loosening the con voters for McGuinty Libs to pick up. Thus the constituency wouldn't be angry at her for doing a dump and run, and now it doesn't matter about the "seat".

 

I like the fact that the "soft" pc voter there bypassed the liberals. Fife remained classy throughout the campaign, and so did the NDP team. So classy wins the day, and not dirty politicing.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

toaster wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

I think that's a reflection as to how transparent McGuinty's attempt to, effectively, buy a parliamentary majority by inducing an opposition MPP to resign ended up being and the degree to which the attempt inflamed the electorate in K-W.

Witmer announced that it was actually her husbands cancer diagnosis that led her to resign.  So I don't fault her.

That was meant to be a comment about McGuinty, not Witmer.  No offense to the former MPP intended.  Apologies.

love is free love is free's picture

while it's obviously wrong to jump to conclusions, the bread and butter of the ndp is precisely the strong local representative that is elected as much for personal popularity as for party affiliation.  fife seems like a natural in this sense, and my guess is (and actually, the by-election turnout indicates) that she'll be around for a while.

theleftyinvestor

Hopefully seats in new uncharted areas like Brampton and K-W will provide a "beachhead" effect that gives the NDP a bump in neighbouring ridings.

janfromthebruce

Not that I want to rain on Ms. Witmer's parade but the job she was offered paid much more than the job she was leaving, and required much less "time" and "energy". And Ms. Witmer's husband is still practicing denistry although he did just sell his dental business. So I'm not quite buying her reason for stepping down to a cushy job. I think it was an opportunity she couldn't pass up.

Wilf Day

janfromthebruce wrote:

Not that I want to rain on Ms. Witmer's parade but the job she was offered paid much more than the job she was leaving, and required much less "time" and "energy". And Ms. Witmer's husband is still practicing denistry although he did just sell his dental business. So I'm not quite buying her reason for stepping down to a cushy job. I think it was an opportunity she couldn't pass up.

I think she passed up lesser offers first. McGuinty seemed to be playing ostrich last fall, refusing to even meet with Andrea Horwath, much less negotiate with her. Inference: he was negotiating with Witmer first. When he had to call the legislature into session, he still refused to set up standing committees, with opposition majorities. Inference: he was still negotiating with Witmer. On Feb. 29 he gave up and set up the standing committees, but still wouldn't negotiate about the budget. Same inference. Then he had to have a budget, and Witmer was still holding out for a better offer, so he made a last-minute deal with Andrea, and then sweetened his offer to Witmer to the point that she finally bought it. Reasonable inference?

adma

Funny thing is, Hudak's blaming-the-unions practically makes him sound like a Warren Kinsella Liberal;-)

It's truly interesting; the real loser in K-W ought to have been Eric Davis, who in light of his strong second last year + the seat's "natural inclinations" ought to have been a presumptive frontrunner going into the race; whereas the PCs basically sensible-shoes sleepwalked on the back of incumbency and leading the provincewide polls.  Yet Hudak's big mouth made him the bigger chump here...

janfromthebruce

Wilf Day wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

Not that I want to rain on Ms. Witmer's parade but the job she was offered paid much more than the job she was leaving, and required much less "time" and "energy". And Ms. Witmer's husband is still practicing denistry although he did just sell his dental business. So I'm not quite buying her reason for stepping down to a cushy job. I think it was an opportunity she couldn't pass up.

I think she passed up lesser offers first. McGuinty seemed to be playing ostrich last fall, refusing to even meet with Andrea Horwath, much less negotiate with her. Inference: he was negotiating with Witmer first. When he had to call the legislature into session, he still refused to set up standing committees, with opposition majorities. Inference: he was still negotiating with Witmer. On Feb. 29 he gave up and set up the standing committees, but still wouldn't negotiate about the budget. Same inference. Then he had to have a budget, and Witmer was still holding out for a better offer, so he made a last-minute deal with Andrea, and then sweetened his offer to Witmer to the point that she finally bought it. Reasonable inference?

I guess you could make that inference, however, that would be way below the political radar screen - out of public view. I most definitely think a "part of the dream job deal" was that she could not disclose that her husband had cancer until after the election. There is no other reason she would not have disclosed that until the "day after Eday". I know in reading some comments at the Kitchener/Waterloo Record, online edition, that commenters were "miffed" that she waited to disclose her "real" (cough) reason for taking the high paying job and quiting.

By not doing so sooner, left a void in which a negative narrative could be evoked concerning Hudak's leadership.

janfromthebruce

Erik was the real loser. But the focus on Hudak shifts the focus from the McGuinty Liberals, and their cheap strategy and dirty tricks. Again, I say that it's good news for the NDP that "staying classy" wins the day.

adma

love is free wrote:
while it's obviously wrong to jump to conclusions, the bread and butter of the ndp is precisely the strong local representative that is elected as much for personal popularity as for party affiliation.  fife seems like a natural in this sense, and my guess is (and actually, the by-election turnout indicates) that she'll be around for a while.

Though it might be more of a challenge next time around, given that the proposed new federal (and, one presumes, provincial) boundaries for K-W excise the strong-NDP zone of north Kitchener...

(Of course, that's presuming that the minority government lasts its full term.)

Ippurigakko

I hope that same thing happen in Durham!

adma

Ippurigakko wrote:

I hope that same thing happen in Durham!

I've been thinking of that; *are* there any potential Fife-calibre standard-bearers in Durham?

Brachina

Lets not forget the people who made it possible, the volunteers like Greco. A round of applause for them all.

http://www.therecord.com/iphone/opinion/article/794432--d-amato-ndp-stal...

David Young

Brachina wrote:
Lets not forget the people who made it possible, the volunteers like Greco. A round of applause for them all. http://www.therecord.com/iphone/opinion/article/794432--d-amato-ndp-stalwarts-worked-hard-and-it-made-a-difference[/quote]

What an impressive volunteer!

The federal NDP should keep an eye on her as a possible candidate in 2015, don't you think?

 

JimWaterloo

I was overjoyed to be a part of this campaign and it was great meeting Janfromthebruce and all the MPs and MPPs and the over 700 volunteers that helped on e-day.  We had 6x the normal signs, ads on all media and an outstanding candidate.  The combined effort helped us win. 

Brachina

David Young wrote:

Brachina wrote:
Lets not forget the people who made it possible, the volunteers like Greco. A round of applause for them all. http://www.therecord.com/iphone/opinion/article/794432--d-amato-ndp-stalwarts-worked-hard-and-it-made-a-difference[/quote]

What an impressive volunteer!

The federal NDP should keep an eye on her as a possible candidate in 2015, don't you think?

 

Yeah, absolutely.

Brachina
janfromthebruce

JimWaterloo wrote:

I was overjoyed to be a part of this campaign and it was great meeting Janfromthebruce and all the MPs and MPPs and the over 700 volunteers that helped on e-day.  We had 6x the normal signs, ads on all media and an outstanding candidate.  The combined effort helped us win. 

And it was great mtg JimW in person. Not only are we babble buds (in which we did chat briefly about our online posts here) but also became twitter friends and often teamed up to battle the "tweet wars".

felixr

The best I told you so article I've read in a long time. Congrats to K-W New Democrats! I hope Catherine Fife proves to be that awesome MP that Scott Piatowski is suggesting.

adma

felixr wrote:

The best I told you so article I've read in a long time. Congrats to K-W New Democrats! I hope Catherine Fife proves to be that awesome MP that Scott Piatowski is suggesting.

Though Piatkowski's strong-local-organization argument dodges around the NDP's fed/prov underperformance in 2011--yet the facts underlying the argument are a reason why even *I* was regarding the NDP as a potentially viable sleeper factor, 2011's results notwithstanding.

And actually, K-W isn't alone here; the NDP held real sleeper strength throughout SW Ontario through the Layton years--maybe not enough to win, but they definitely struck a note in "the heartland", more so than in the 905 and even bits of the pre-2011 416...

adma

Polling map, FYI

janfromthebruce

I worked that campaign so is there anyway, the map has the streets/roads on them? I'd like to know how the areas that I canvassed did. Kiss

adma

If you can offer a few geographic coordinates, I can "rough it" for you.  In any event, the poll results are also on-line

http://www.elections.on.ca/en-CA/Tools/Kitchener-Waterloo+2012+by-electi...

janfromthebruce

Thanks Adma, I'll check it on line. Appreciate you posting it!

adma

Of course, for comparison's sake, the 2011 general-election results are also on-line; and AFAIK the poll numbers are identical, so it'd make for interesting comparisons...

janfromthebruce

But how can the poll numbers be identical - now that is interesting.

adma

Well, AFAIK the 2011 polling division boundaries carried over into the byelection.  (That's what I mean by "identical"; not the numbers that voted for whatever party in said polls.)

Robo

It's quite easy for the poll numbers to be the same if there was no redrawing of the poll boundaries between the last general provincial election and the KW by-election; why would the local Returning Officer go out of her/his way to redraw them? There may be a few areas where substantial new housing resulted in there being too many voters in a particular poll. If that happened, the standard thing to do is to splie that individual poll inhalf and label those resulting polls 89A and 89B, rather than redraw the poll boundaries for the riding as a whole.

Robo

Double post

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