Non-NDP Ontario seats, in order of peak 04-06-08 share

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Non-NDP Ontario seats, in order of peak 04-06-08 share

...with a lot of sloppy offhand comments.

PARKDALE-HIGH PARK 40.41 (06): the only "takeback" target.

BEACHES-EAST YORK 34.96 (06); imagine: Minna's lowest-profile opponent ever being the one who takes her down at last

OSHAWA 34.73 (08): believe it or not, the NDP did better post-Syd Ryan, and w/more suburban sprawl to deal with--there's a silver lining to consider...

DAVENPORT 34.13 (04): none of the top 4 non-incumbent seats ever sunk beneath 30%

KENORA 32.06 (04): fumbling after '04 led this to be CPC's northern toehold instead; but in light of the rest of the North (and Howie Hampton provincially), the supertargetability is self-evident, even w/the former Grit member running again

YORK SOUTH-WESTON 27.95 (08): it's really the "loosening up" effect of Paul Ferreira's fleeting provincial MPPdom that's shoved this up the ranks

ESSEX 26.60 (08): no more Whelan; a rare Tory share to fall from '06 to '08

PETERBOROUGH 25.68 (06): boosted by an open-seat situation in '06; but share almost halved in '08--still, current candidate more "upper share" than "lower share", but high 40s Tory may be hard to catch

LONDON NORTH CENTRE 24.14 (04): perhaps dampered by rare non-GTA Liberal incumbent and demographic split

TORONTO CENTRE 23.75 (04): Rae's dampered the Shapcott-era "nominal second" advantage

SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST 23.10 (06): maybe the 416's biggest sleeper, esp. w/Tory problems and Dan Harris running again

CHATHAM-KENT-ESSEX 22.36 (06): SW Ontario agri-industrial archetype; '06 result indicates "potential"; Grits marred by candidate upheaval; former Rae MPP now mayor

BRANT 22.00 (04): pre-1993 fed NDP history; serious effort by present candidate in the face of the current + former MP

GUELPH 22.00 (06): dampered by rare Grit incumbent + '08's "third place Green" optics (though perhaps not fatally: even at 4th in '08, only 15 points away from Grits)

OTTAWA-VANIER 21.82 (06): a definite sleeper, esp. if Quebec's Laytonmania has a Franco-Ontarian echo

SARNIA-LAMBTON 21.64 (08): the only '08 Ontario seat where NDP jumped over Lib for 2nd

LONDON WEST 21.39 (06): yes, even this London seat's passed 20%; no other parties above 40% in 06-08, so who knows...

ANCASTER-DUNDAS-FLAMBOROUGH-WESTDALE 21.32 (06): basically a Dundas-Westdale rump; but who knows about agrarian populism in Flamborough or potential Hamilburban NDP-friendly spillover in Ancaster

NIAGARA FALLS 20.98 (06): a strong sleeper, esp. w/Welland next door

ST CATHARINES 20.49 (06): supposedly one of the erstwhile "anti-HST" NDP Ontario targets; and again, a potential Welland echo-effect

CAMBRIDGE 20.15 (04): strong Saltsman-Farnan history, NDP traditionally stronger than Libs, even if dampered lately by suburban growth; closeness of '08 share suggests solid second-place potential, at the very least

BRAMPTON-SPRINGDALE 19.79 (04): artificially boosted in '04 by LibCon candidate controversies; the strongest Peel seat, if somewhat by fluke and/or default

KITCHENER CENTRE 19.32 (04): urbanity + latently strong base; 3-way potential

ELGIN-MIDDLESEX-LONDON 19.24 (06/08): oh irony, if even after the Ryan Dolby crisis, the NDP nicks Lib for 2nd--it's possible

ST PAULS 19.20 (06): really a west-of-Bathurst rump situation

KINGSTON AND THE ISLANDS 19.19 (06): a Millikenless open seat + campus-town/Red Tory tradition makes this a sleeper to watch

YORK WEST 18.74 (08): low-income and well positioned, but Judy Sgro too strong--then again...

PERTH-WELLINGTON 18.61 (06): Stratford rump; potential second

NORTHUMBERLAND-QUINTE WEST 18.08 (06): for a seat like this, 18% is astronomical--Russ Christianson = the Grant Robertson of the East?

OXFORD 18.02 (08): a shockingly close third in '08 = likely 2nd in '11?

KITCHENER-WATERLOO 17.89 (06): like K-Centre, palpable 3-way potential

NIPISSING-TIMISKAMING 17.27 (06): an underexploited possibility, esp. w/boundaries now leading up to Timiskaming

DURHAM 17.26 (06): '08 dampered by candidate scandal; now it's the Tory incumbent w/scandal

HALIBURTON-KAWARTHA LAKES-BROCK 17.22 (06): remember Dennis Drainville in '90? strong 2nd place potential

LAMBTON-KENT-MIDDLESEX 17.19 (06): Wallaceburg rump; 2nd place potential

SCARBOROUGH CENTRE 16.82 (04): sooner or later, the inner-Scarborough nut must be cracked

HURON-BRUCE 16.30 (06)I find Grant Robertson overrated; if only because I find a lot of sleepers elsewhere underated

OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN 16.19 (06): dampered by Baird-vs-generic-Liberal presumptions

SCARBOROUGH-GUILDWOOD 16.16 (04): a ditto from Scarborough Centre

LANARK-FRONTENAC-LENNOX & ADDINGTON 16.15 (06): yes, they cracked 15% even in Randy Hillier country!

NIAGARA WEST-GLANBROOK 16.02 (06): the least likely of the Niagaras, esp. w/Hudak provincially; but btw/Hamilton + Welland, second place on-radar

ETOBICOKE NORTH 15.74 (08): low-income; old Ed Philip country; '08 least neglected campaign in ages

KITCHENER-CONESTOGA 15.72 (04): potential 2nd

ETOBICOKE-LAKESHORE 15.57 (06): against Iggy?!? still, a distant-past NDP history

LEEDS-GRENVILLE 15.26 (06): 15% here?!? 2nd place potential

PRINCE EDWARD-HASTINGS 15.19 (04): another '04 15% surprise; fallen since, but could bounce back to #2

OTTAWA-ORLEANS 15.09 (06): given the 905ishness, how *this* cracked 15%, I'll never know

BRAMALEA-GORE-MALTON 14.85 (04): Bramalea + Malton would have gone NDP in '90; now supposedly a "star candidate" by Peel Region ethnoburban standards

MISSISSAUGA-BRAMPTON SOUTH 14.80 (04): '04 result bumped by open seat + former Mississauga councillor as most viable non-Asian

SCARBOROUGH-ROUGE RIVER 14.71 (08): bluffed into surprising '08 result; now open seat w/aggressive NDP candidate

HALDIMAND-NORFOLK 14.35 (04): "strategic voting" + '08 indy blunted vote after '04

WHITBY-OSHAWA 14.26 (08): second place vs Flaherty?  future win, even?

SIMCOE NORTH 14.13 (06): second place on backs of Penetang Franco-Ontarians?

YORK CENTRE 13.69 (04): probably sideswiped by Dryden-Adler

OTTAWA SOUTH 13.64 (04): Monia Mazigh's '04 seat

BRAMPTON WEST 13.60 (08): best '08 Peel result (maybe on the back of S Asian ethnoburbia)

STORMONT-DUNDAS-SOUTH GLENGARRY 13.55 (08): '08 Grit freefall + Franco-Ontarian demo = second place?  (+ memory of pre-1985 MPP)

DON VALLEY EAST 13.33 (08): lower-midground 416; little growth potential

YORK-SIMCOE 13.32 (06): best York seat; contender for 2nd

MISSISSAUGA-STREETSVILLE 13.31 (06): best '06 Peel result ("Canadian" vs 2 Asians)

BRUCE-GREY-OWEN SOUND 13.08 (04): post-04 share robbed by Greens; moral victory = 2nd after Green + Liberal

AJAX-PICKERING 12.82 (06): dampered by Lib-Con tussle + NDP-candidate "vacationgate"

GLENGARRY-PRESCOTT-RUSSELL 12.74 (06): Franco-Ontarian bump potential?

RENFREW-NIPISSING-PEMBROKE 12.55 (06): Gallant vs Cloutier puts this off-radar; but when it comes to the future, it's practically Northern Ontario around here...

CARLETON-MISSISSIPPI MILLS 12.50 (06): just too Tory, and probably too Liberal too, unless Alex Munter tried a homecoming

BURLINGTON 12.44 (06): off-radar but not for lack of history (past NDP and present Green mayors, and who knows what being next to Hamilton might bring)

WELLINGTON-HALTON HILLS 12.32 (06): Mike Chong's practically NDP enough for a Tory

PARRY SOUND-MUSKOKA 12.31 (08): second to Clement?

BARRIE 12.18 (06): second?  (and NDP provincially in '90)

DUFFERIN-CALEDON 12.13 (06): from fourth to second? (less than 10 points btw/Lib-GP-NDP in '08)

MISSISSAUGA EAST-COOKSVILLE 11.67 (04): long-term, who knows what the aging ethnoburbia (cf. Scarborough) might bring

PICKERING-SCARBOROUGH EAST 11.57 (06): peppy candidates over time, but McTeague too tough a nut to crack

NEPEAN-CARLETON 11.51 (06): astronomically Tory + Keon sympathy factor = no hope

EGLINTON-LAWRENCE 11.49 (06): too atrophied vs Grit-Con tussle

WILLOWDALE 11.36 (06): *maybe* long-term potential among the NY Centre apartment-dwellers

SIMCOE-GREY 11.20 (06/08): given that it's what passes for a 5-way race in Ontario, who knows, anything can happen...

MISSISSAUGA-ERINDALE 11.09 (06): Lib-Con tussle + candidate dropout = no hope

SCARBOROUGH-AGINCOURT 11.08 (06): peaked w/ex-Etobicoke councillor

MISSISSAUGA SOUTH 10.76 (06): too much Lorne Park-ish affluent suburbia in the way, + perceived Lib-Con race

DON VALLEY WEST 10.19 (08): too affluent ; that  above-average '08 candidate only barely made back deposit tells you something

MARKHAM-UNIONVILLE 10.18 (08): surprised that NDP cracked 10% here at all in '08: harbinger of orange ethnoburbia?

RICHMOND HILL 9.96 (06): 2 consecutive elections within a tenth of a point of a rebate

NEWMARKET-AURORA 9.94 (04): Belinda'd away in 04-06; Greened away in '08

ETOBICOKE CENTRE 9.91 (04): the bottom of the 416 barrel, but I saw lawn signs here!

OAK RIDGES-MARKHAM 9.88 (06): totally sideswiped by GritTory race

OAKVILLE 9.74 (06): too affluent (+ 4th place in '08)

VAUGHAN 9.64 (08): abysmal byelection result hard to live down

HALTON 8.83 (06): the NDP actually won a poll in '08!

THORNHILL 7.81 (06): the bottom of the barrel (but a potential moral victory everywhere one looks)


I bet Kellway will beat Minna in beaches.