ONT NDP Leader Andrea Horwath will become Premier of Ontario 2

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mark_alfred

Can't agree with you there.  Volunteering time is very important to political parties.  Parties that have more scrutineers to pull the vote win campaigns.

mark_alfred

From threatened lawsuits to budget release rumours, seems both the austerity minded Libs and Cons are going down fighting.  Time to be done with these parties and vote NDP.  Premier Horwath, Mayor Chow, and Prime Minister Mulcair would certainly be an improvement.

Pogo Pogo's picture

mark_alfred wrote:

Can't agree with you there.  Volunteering time is very important to political parties.  Parties that have more scrutineers to pull the vote win campaigns.

  Do you have any scientific studies to back that up.  I remember a friend telling me that the research shows that this accounts for under 5%.  The more important task is to build a supporters list.  There are probably exceptions to the rule (John Turner's win in Vancouver Point Grey), but they are few and far between.

mark_alfred

I have no scientific studies to back my talking points here whatsoever.

Pogo Pogo's picture

And my information is decades old.  I wonder if anyone has any statistics on the value of voter identification campaigns.

TiradeFaction

Skinny Dipper wrote:

As I watched and listened to TVO's "The Agenda," the general topic seemed to be about political parties and the role of citizens in relation to the parties.  Over the past 30 years, the number of people who are members of the different parties has declined.  Many constituency associations are shells compared to what they were like many years ago.  Political campaigns are highly leader-centric and are focused on maintaining the loyalty of hardcore supporters by raising money from them, and then reaching out for that extra ten to 20 percent of voters that will give a leader and his/her political party a majority in a legislature or parliament.  The name of the game for political parties is not to present policies in order to make society better.  It is to win in a game of political hardball.  Stephen Harper knows this, and he does generally well with this strategy.  Other political leaders are catching on.

Provincially, Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath knows that she has to play political hardball if she wants to win against Kathleen Wynne and Tim Hudak.  The days of the NDP being the conscience of a legislature or parliament are fading.  Even though her party holds the balance of power, each political party is now constantly campaigning for the next election.  Each party wants to win.  In Ms. Horwath's case, she talks about labour rights when she attends labour conventions.  However, Ms. Horwath avoids talk about labour rights when she speaks to the general public.  Instead, she focuses on boutique issues like lower auto insurance rates and a new accountability office in order to attract that extra ten to 20 percent of voters.  She doesn't speak about issues that matter to supporters of OCAP because it's likely that those supporters are not donating money to the Ontario NDP campaign.  People may volunteer in a local campaign.  However, most local campaigns may influence about five percent of the vote.  The leaders and central party organizations influence the other 95 percent.  A donation to a central party is much more effective than volunteering in a local campaign.  A donation can help a party buy a media spot in order to reach a large but targetted audience.  Local campaigns tend to reach large audiences, but their effects are weak.

I think that the new reality is that even when Andrea Horwath no longer leads the Ontario NDP, the next leader will opt for a similar strategy to win power like Stephen Harper has done.  Seek donations from the loyal base; have key boutique polities that will attract the extra ten to 20 percent of voters.  Run centralized perpetual campaigns.

I just watched some of that and have a few quick comments. They go on and on about millennial disengagement with domestic politics vis a vis "globalization" and more interested in NGOs in Africa and etc., but are they taking Quebec into this equation? If I recall correctly the last election had nearly 80% turn out and I believe quite a lot of millennials, particularly very young students, in that election. I believe high turn outs are a general trend in Quebec elections. If I'm right, what makes young people more willing to vote in Quebec and not in the ROC?

Second off, somewhere half way in the video Doug Saunders comments how the idea of whether the state or the "Free market" should resolve economic matters has already been settled (with a subtle nod that it's towards the "Free Market" side). Like, what planet is this guy living on? Really?

Unionist

TiradeFaction wrote:
If I recall correctly the last election had nearly 80% turn out and I believe quite a lot of millennials, particularly very young students, in that election. I believe high turn outs are a general trend in Quebec elections. If I'm right, what makes young people more willing to vote in Quebec and not in the ROC?

 

2012 election participation rate was 74.6%. I think lots of young people came out specifically to vote against Charest. The 2008 election was very low (for Québec), at about 57%, the lowest in 70 years. Previous elections were generally in the 70-80% range (never quite hit 80 I don't think).

 

TiradeFaction

Unionist wrote:

TiradeFaction wrote:
If I recall correctly the last election had nearly 80% turn out and I believe quite a lot of millennials, particularly very young students, in that election. I believe high turn outs are a general trend in Quebec elections. If I'm right, what makes young people more willing to vote in Quebec and not in the ROC?

 

2012 election participation rate was 74.6%. I think lots of young people came out specifically to vote against Charest. The 2008 election was very low (for Québec), at about 57%, the lowest in 70 years. Previous elections were generally in the 70-80% range (never quite hit 80 I don't think).

 

Interesting, thanks. Can we extrapolate younger people tended to vote in higher numbers than in the ROC during normal election turn outs (IE, not the low one in 2008)? I'm still curious if they do as to why they come out to vote where in say, Ontario or British Columbia, not so much.

Unionist

Ok, haven't looked up age groups yet, but from 1931 to 2007 inclusive, the participation rate ranged from a low of 70.42% (2003) to a high of 85.27% (1976). It actually broke the 80% mark in six elections, from 1960 to 1994. Here's the full story.

I wonder if that includes people voting more than once?

[Unionist slaps self for even thinking that, let alone not deleting it!]

Note that the first woman to run, ever, was in a byelection in 1947. Sheesh.

 

 

 

jerrym

Unionist wrote:

I wonder if that includes people voting more than once?

Don't worry Unionist, Harper is brining in Republican anti-fraud voting tactics as fast as possible to solve all your concerns. 

Brachina
NorthReport

Tim Hudak says he would scrap Ontario College of Trades

The Ontario College of Trades celebrated its first anniversary Tuesday, and Tory Leader Tim Hudak says if he has his way it won’t have a second.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/04/08/tim_hudak_says_he_woul...

Brachina
theleftyinvestor

 

It would be pretty damn sweet to see them in third for the first time since, well, Rae. And hopefully the outcome would be better than what happened that time.

mark_alfred

Here's a petition advocating for a higher minimum wage and greater worker protections.  sign here

Brachina

 I signed it.

 

 In other news Tim Hudak has promised to cancel.all day kindergarden.

 

 Is it just me or is Tim Hudak one of.the stupidest men in Canadian politics or is it just me?

 

 Sometimes I think Tim Hudak is an NDP plant whose job is to.destroy the Tory party for the inside.

jerrym

It's not just you.

Geoff

Brachina wrote:

 I signed it.

 

 In other news Tim Hudak has promised to cancel.all day kindergarden.

 

 Is it just me or is Tim Hudak one of.the stupidest men in Canadian politics or is it just me?

 

 Sometimes I think Tim Hudak is an NDP plant whose job is to.destroy the Tory party for the inside.

You could be right.  After all, Bob Rae was a Liberal plant who succeeded in destroying the NDP, at least for a good 20 years.  If the Libs can do it.....

mark_alfred

NDP site that points out past Liberal bungling of transit:  link

NorthReport

Things are looking bright for the Ontario NDP tied for 1st in the polls, within the margin of error, and with Andrea as Leader so we should do quite well in the upcoming provincial election whenever it is held.

Libs - 32%

NDP - 29%

PCs - 27%

mark_alfred

It's good news.  However, I worry that the NDP's support is largely concentrated in a few areas like Hamilton or Windsor (at high levels) rather than 29% spread across the province.  So, I worry that at these levels, there'll be a lot of wasted votes and the NDP seat wise would not come out with 29%.  Still, things are looking up.  Hopefully an even bigger break through will occur.

Aristotleded24

NorthReport wrote:
Things are looking bright for the Ontario NDP tied for 1st in the polls, within the margin of error, and with Andrea as Leader so we should do quite well in the upcoming provincial election whenever it is held.

Libs - 32%

NDP - 29%

PCs - 27%

Sounds like now is the time for Andrea to go to the next level. No more isolated boutique policies. Come up with a strong, coherent, easily-communicated social democratic agenda for the remainder of this legislative session. This agenda can either be implemented by Wynne as she struggles to hold on to power or it can be implemented by Horwath when she wins the next election.

felixr

Is Giambrone still her go to guy for candidate search? If not, perhaps she can tap Dick Cheney for his experience as chair of George W. Bush's vice presidential search committee.

Skinny Dipper

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sounds like now is the time for Andrea to go to the next level. No more isolated boutique policies. Come up with a strong, coherent, easily-communicated social democratic agenda for the remainder of this legislative session. This agenda can either be implemented by Wynne as she struggles to hold on to power or it can be implemented by Horwath when she wins the next election.

I agree.  Boutique policies will only take the Ontario NDP so far.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sounds like now is the time for Andrea to go to the next level. No more isolated boutique policies. Come up with a strong, coherent, easily-communicated social democratic agenda for the remainder of this legislative session. This agenda can either be implemented by Wynne as she struggles to hold on to power or it can be implemented by Horwath when she wins the next election.

 

About that...

 

Quote:

One executive who attended the Ryerson session said Ms. Horwath’s goal appeared to be reassuring Bay Street she is not hostile to their interests and understands their importance to the economy. Ms. Horwath promised she would not return the corporate income tax rate to 14 per cent, the level it was in 2010 before the Grits started clawing it back.

Ms. Horwath has made clear she is willing to cut government spending and drive a hard bargain with unions – the party’s long-time allies – to demonstrate she is serious about balancing the books, one NDP insider said.

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/try-it-now/try-it-now-politics-insider/?c...

[img]http://images2.fanpop.com/images/user_images/DanBackslide-405338_604_403...

NorthReport

My hunch is that Liberal support is a mile wide and an inch deep, and that during the election they may crash and burn.

The PCs could end up without a majority, but with the most number of seats.

If the NDP ends up with more seats than the Liberals, would the Liberals support a NDP-lead minority government? 

scott16

NorthReport wrote:

My hunch is that Liberal support is a mile wide and an inch deep, and that during the election they may crash and burn.

The PCs could end up without a majority, but with the most number of seats.

If the NDP ends up with more seats than the Liberals, would the Liberals support a NDP-lead minority government? 

They might have to ditch Wynne as leader because she might be too entitled to do that.

NorthReport

Is it election time in Ontario?

Go Andrea Go!

Finally!!!

 

ONW EXCLUSIVE: HORWATH, AIDES DECIDE TO FORCE SPRING ELECTION 

 

By Susanna Kelley

Andrea Horwath and her most senior advisors have made the decision to pull the plug on the minority Liberal government and go to a spring election, sources have told OntarioNewsWatch.com.

Ms. Horwath and her inner circle have determined they cannot be seen to be propping up Kathleen Wynne's minority Liberals now that criminal charges may be laid in connection with the alleged wiping of 24 computer hard drives in the Premier's Office.

Senior NDP advisors believe that supporting the Liberals would give PC leader Tim Hudak "too much of a hammer" against Ms. Horwath and they don't want to be put in that position in the public eye, says an inside source.

A major consideration is that it is the Conservatives that pose the biggest threat to new ridings won by the NDP since Ms. Horwath became leader - Niagara Falls, London West, Windsor-Tecumseh, Kitchener-Waterloo, Essex, and others.

An e-mail has gone out to riding associations offering them insurance for their campaign offices - a routine election procedure that is not usually done until a party has decided it is definitely going to the polls.

"They don't want to give Hudak the ammunition" of accusing Ms. Horwath and NDP MPPs of propping up a government whose paid staffer has allegedly broken the law by facilitating the deletion of information such as that concerning the gas plants scandal.

The Liberals under Dalton McGuinty cancelled the construction of two gas plants - in Oakville and Mississauga - at the eleventh hour, costing the taxpayers more than $1 billion. Critics charge they were cancelled in order to save five Liberal seats in the 2011 election, enabling the party to win a minority government.

 

http://ontarionewswatch.com/onw-news.html?id=733

 

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

Just watched a Liberal and and a PC go at it on Power Play. Apart from the fact of Don Martin's right-wing bullshit of not inviting an NDP spokesperson to be present, the PC mouth mopped the floor with the Liberal spokesperson. It was embarassing to watch.

NorthReport

During the election campaign Andrea should jump all over the Liberal government for doing nothing about the huge abusive foreign worker issue. Wynne obviously represents corporate interests and could not give a shit about low-paid Ontario workers. Jason Kenney is scum!

Aristotleded24

OnTheLeft wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sounds like now is the time for Andrea to go to the next level. No more isolated boutique policies. Come up with a strong, coherent, easily-communicated social democratic agenda for the remainder of this legislative session. This agenda can either be implemented by Wynne as she struggles to hold on to power or it can be implemented by Horwath when she wins the next election.

 

About that...

 

Quote:

One executive who attended the Ryerson session said Ms. Horwath’s goal appeared to be reassuring Bay Street she is not hostile to their interests and understands their importance to the economy. Ms. Horwath promised she would not return the corporate income tax rate to 14 per cent, the level it was in 2010 before the Grits started clawing it back.

Ms. Horwath has made clear she is willing to cut government spending and drive a hard bargain with unions – the party’s long-time allies – to demonstrate she is serious about balancing the books, one NDP insider said.

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/try-it-now/try-it-now-politics-insider/?c...

[img]

">http://images2.fanpop.com/images/user_images/DanBackslide-405338_604_403...

That article is behind a subscription wall.

josh

Sounds real social democratic to me.

Unionist

Quote:

Ms. Horwath has made clear she is willing to cut government spending and drive a hard bargain with unions – the party’s long-time allies – to demonstrate she is serious about balancing the books, one NDP insider said.

Could someone explain to her about Pauline Marois?

josh

Or Premier Hudak.

Skinny Dipper

Unionist wrote:

Quote:

Ms. Horwath has made clear she is willing to cut government spending and drive a hard bargain with unions – the party’s long-time allies – to demonstrate she is serious about balancing the books, one NDP insider said.

Could someone explain to her about Pauline Marois?

This strategy will be a high-risk gamble for Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP.  Yes, she will lose support of some very progressive New Democrats.  She had better hope that she can gain the support of middle-of-the-road Ontarians with this strategy.  She is not only going after the support of Liberals, she wants to get support from Conservative voters who may not be comfortable with Tim Hudak.  I think this strategy will fail by election day.  I do predict a Liberal majority as Kathleen Wynne will be able to set herself up as the clear alternative to Tim Hudak.  Tim Hudak is scary, Kathleen Wynne is kind of scary.  However, the worst kind of scary is the unknown.  Andrea Horwath is the scariest party leader because her way of governing will be unknown to social democrats.  We won't know what to expect from her.

NorthReport

Andrea will do fine, and is just palying the game well - she knows she has to get elected first to effect any meaningful change. Tell me any political party that divulges what it is actually going to do do before an actual election, and then does it. That is fantasyland.

 

Unionist

NorthReport wrote:

Tell me any political party that divulges what it is actually going to do do before the actual election.

So, it all depends on the masses being more credulous and gullible than you and me. We're smart. We know they're all liars. We know Horwath is just pretending to be a right-wing fanatic, but we're counting on enough voters not realizing that - because voters love right-wing fanatics, right? Then they'll vote for Horwath because they think she'll "balance the books" and attack the unions and perhaps a common-sense revolution and maybe "jobs jobs jobs" - but once she's in, watch out, she'll fool 'em all - socialism, yeah!

Sorry, NR. The proper word for someone who lies to attain power is "liar". Horwath isn't lying. That's a really unfair allegation.

She's just a liberal.

Why anyone would vote for a liberal that doesn't call herself a Liberal but promises to be a liberal if elected, is beyond me.

NorthReport

Andrea has played the political game quite well so far, and has the NDP at its highest level of support since the Bob Rae debacle. She is doing fine thank you.

For any political party to run on a platform that they were not going to balance the books would be the kiss of death for them.

That era has long gone.

NorthReport

The NDP criticized an online article, quoting unnamed sources, that says Leader Andrea Horwath and her most senior advisers have already decided that they will not support the Liberal budget and instead will send the minority Wynne government to the polls.

NDP House Leader Gilles Bisson denied the party is poised to pull the plug.

Horwath has repeatedly said in public that she, unlike the Progressive Conservatives who refuse to back the Liberals in a confidence vote, would wait to see what’s in Wynne’s budget before making this decision.

“New Democrats are focused on getting results for people,” Bisson said in a statement. “The claim that a decision of some kind has been made about the future of Ontario’s minority government is a complete fabrication.”

 

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/04/21/liberals-progress-report-claims-ont...

Skinny Dipper

I still think that Kathleen Wynne will pull the plug on the legislature rather than be defeated in non-confidence on a budget bill.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

NorthReport wrote:
Tell me any political party that divulges what it is actually going to do do before an actual election, and then does it. That is fantasyland.

[img]http://www.dcf.ca/images/tcdouglas_portrait.jpg[/img]

[img]http://fixingtheeconomists.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/clement-attlee-00...

[img]http://consortiumnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/mossadegh-time.jpg[...

[img]http://www.popularresistance.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/1-allende-la...

[img]http://media.ecuadortimes.net/2012/12/chavez_maduro_l.jpg[/img]

 

Aristotleded24 wrote:

That article is behind a subscription wall.

I'm not sure if we're allowed to post entire articles on Babble (?).

Anyways, if we can't, I'll do it just this once (if mods are perusing this thread).

Quote:

NDP’s Horwath makes a push toward centre in courting big business

New Democratic Leader has promised in recent meetings with top executives leaders not to increase corporate tax to 14 per cent

The push is part of the NDP’s overarching strategy to move into the political mainstream and become a serious contender for power. The party must decide next month whether it will vote down the ruling Liberals’ budget and force an early trip to the polls.

Ms. Horwath has held at least two business round tables in Toronto in recent weeks. One was a breakfast meeting in the atrium at Ryerson University on March 24 and another a lunch-hour session at the offices of the C.D. Howe Institute March 28. The gatherings included people from the finance, technology and manufacturing sectors, a senior New Democratic source said.

Ms. Horwath has also met one on one with some of the country’s top executives.

Chrysler Canada CEO Reid Bigland said he had a “friendly chat” with her, during which she told him about her auto-worker father, after the NDP contacted his company six or seven weeks ago.

“I spoke with her and she mentioned to me that she is very interested in Ontario business, the auto industry and jobs. She also mentioned that if there was anything she could do to help Chrysler, to call,” he wrote in an e-mail. “I appreciated the outreach.”

One executive who attended the Ryerson session said Ms. Horwath’s goal appeared to be reassuring Bay Street she is not hostile to their interests and understands their importance to the economy. Business leaders, meanwhile, wanted to know more about Ms. Horwath’s position on corporate taxes.

In public, the NDP has frequently criticized the Liberals for giving tax breaks to big business. But at this meeting, Ms. Horwath promised she would not return the corporate income tax rate to 14 per cent, the level it was in 2010 before the Grits started clawing it back. The NDP source said that, after her reassurance, one business leader remarked there was “a sigh of relief.” Ms. Horwath did not rule out a smaller hike to corporate taxes.

Central to Ms. Horwath’s corporate pitch has been a promise to dig the province out of its $11.3-billion deficit, said lobbyist Robin MacLachlan, a former federal NDP staffer.

“One of the commitments she has made and been quite staunch in her support for is the commitment to balance the budget … this is important to business,” said Mr. MacLachlan, vice-president of Summa Strategies.

Ms. Horwath has made clear she is willing to cut government spending and drive a hard bargain with unions – the party’s long-time allies – to demonstrate she is serious about balancing the books, one NDP insider said.

Corporate leaders have also taken a greater interest in the party recently.

A top financial-sector executive who met with Ms. Horwath at his request said that, while some people on Bay Street still hold knee-jerk anti-NDP views, others have no problem with a social-democratic agenda at Queen’s Park, provided there is no dramatic hike to corporate taxes.

Much of business’s desire to build a relationship with the NDP has to do with its heightened influence in the minority legislature, Mr. MacLachlan said. The party helped shape the 2012 and 2013 budgets, inserting NDP policies such as slashing auto-insurance premiums, by allowing the budgets to pass in exchange for concessions from the Liberals.

Party insiders say Ms. Horwath is taking her cues from the NDP in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, as well as the British Labour Party, which have emerged in the past two decades as big-tent coalitions of the broad centre-left. Roy Romanow’s tenure as premier in Saskatchewan in the 1990s, in particular, was marked by a push toward the centre, as his government slashed spending to get the books back in the black.

Ms. Horwath’s makeover of the party has been reflected in her policy-making, which has eschewed the sort of grand plans proferred by Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne and Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak in favour of small-ball pledges targeted at key voting demographics.

Some of these policies have been explicitly corporate-friendly, including tax cuts for small business to offset the planned increase to the minimum wage.

 

NorthReport

It sounds like the NDP wants to win here, which is the name of the game isn't it, and is moving into 21st century politics.

Go Andrea Go! 

NorthReport

It looks like the NDP wants to win here, which is the name of the game isn't it, and is moving into 21st century politics.

Go Andrea Go! 

NorthReport

We'll find out soon enough but I sure hope it's a go!

http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/04/ontario-election-believe-it-dont-belie...

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Moving to the right is disastrous, ie Adrian Dix, Darrell Dexter, Lorne Calvert, Bob Rae etc. It alienates traditional supporters who will stay home during an election, while further contributing to the sentiment that all parties and politicians are the same, resulting in low voter turnouts. We already have two parties that cater to the ruling class, we don't need another.

Tommy Douglas wrote:

The growth and development of the New Democratic Party must never allow us to forget our roots. Don't sacrifice conviction for success. Don't ever give up on quality for quantity. In a movement like ours, as socialist movements around the world have demonstrated, we're not just interested in getting votes...We are seeking to get people who are willing to dedicate their lives to building a different kind of society...a society founded on the principles of concern for human well-being and human welfare.

NDP Federal Convention, Regina, Saskatchewan, 1983

Aristotleded24

OnTheLeft wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

That article is behind a subscription wall.

I'm not sure if we're allowed to post entire articles on Babble (?).

Anyways, if we can't, I'll do it just this once (if mods are perusing this thread).

Thanks OnTheLeft, I've had a chance to read it now.

Somewhat disturbing, although there are very few specifics in the article, and I wonder how much of it is true as opposed to how much is the Globe and Mail spin trying to have us all worried.

Of course, the irony is that Horwath was at her most popular when she insisted on a wealth tax for Ontario.

josh

Liberal, NDP. The difference is very hard to see.

Skinny Dipper

Thank you, OnTheLeft, for providing the article about Andrea Horwath meeting with big business.  She can meet whomever she wants.  My issue is that if she becomes the next premier, she will attack the people who have traditionally supported the Ontario NDP--labour supporters, poverty activists, environmentalists, and so on.

As a teacher, there is no incentive for me to vote for Ms. Horwath's NDP when she will just end up attacking public service workers.  Teachers lost one and a half percent in wages/salaries over the past two years.  Ms. Horwath's NDP supported Bill 122 which reduced the rights of local union members in negotiations.  She is no friend of workers or the unions.

Ms. Horwath can move the NDP just to the left of Tim Hudak's Tea Party Conservatives.  She won't be getting my vote.  I will likely stay home on election day.

NorthReport

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