Ontario 2011 election: the aftermath 2

70 posts / 0 new
Last post
edmundoconnor
Ontario 2011 election: the aftermath 2

.

edmundoconnor

Glen Murray responds to the allegations of homophobia in YSW:

"Edmund" I have been a victim of many anti gay smears during and between campaigns so obviously I think they are disgusting. They are a reality of being an out candidate. I ran for office as an "out" gay man in the 80s and it is better today. I have always believed that change has come for our community largely because of all the folks that have the courage to say "I" and "we" and not "they" and "them" when speaking of of LGBTQ folks. To your questions I cannot imagine a smear or whisper campaign supported by one of our candidates and I have publically condemed (sic) such campaigns many times and would again. George Smitherman was the victim of an actual anti gay radio ad campaign and the PC pamphlet distributed in this election says it all.

Here.

It appears we haven't heard the last of this. In the same thread, Rob Salerno (Xtra! staffer) comments:

Rest assured, Xtra is pursuing that file.

Life, the unive...

I think we call that an evasive answer.  Notice he didn't say it didn't happen, just that he can't imagine it.  Well I can't imagine bankers taking big bonuses either, but they do.

edmundoconnor

"I cannot imagine", translated, means that he doesn't have any idea what happened in YSW, but he'll pour cold water on it anyway.

I have just spoken with Andrea Houston of Xtra! about this whole episode. The paper is running a follow-up piece either tonight or tomorrow morning about it.

janfromthebruce

0

Wilf Day

Thomas Walkom: 

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1067853

Quote:
. . what should the McGuinty minority government do to forestall another slump? Not all the economists cited here will agree. But the elements do seem clear to me:

Spend on needed social and physical infrastructure; postpone budget-balancing if necessary; continue using the state to encourage new productive forms of manufacturing and — like Brazil, China, the U.S. and many others — don’t be shy about protecting domestic industries.

The beauty of this is that McGuinty has already tentatively started down this path. If pushed by Horwath, who now does hold the balance of power in the legislature, he could do considerably more.

Hamilton Spectator:

http://www.thespec.com/news/elections/article/607465--mcguinty-meets-lieutenant-governor-horwath-wants-to-get-to-work

Quote:
Horwath sent a letter Tuesday to McGuinty and Hudak, asking for a “meeting with both of you to discuss workable solutions for the short term and a plan for the long term sustainability of our province.”

The Liberals were quick to pan Horwath’s idea.

“The premier met with the Lieutenant Governor this morning to inform him that he intends to form a strong, stable Ontario Liberal government,” said Jane Almeida, McGuinty’s press secretary, in an email.

“The economy is the government’s top priority. The premier has asked Finance Minister Dwight Duncan to prepare an economic update to present to Ontarians, so we know the impact the crisis in the European Union is having on job growth here in Ontario,” she said.

“There will be lots of opportunity for input from the opposition as the legislature resumes.”

. . . there has yet to be a decision on when the House will resume . . .

Don't wait too long, Dalton, you just lost your majority. Liberals told Harper he had to meet the House, not prorogue, remember? 

Hunky_Monkey

A Tory friend of mine in Ontario heard that McGuinty has been sending out feelers for floor crossers.

Lord Palmerston

Here's the turnout by riding.  In a lot of GTA seats, it was 45% or less.  There was a cluster in the southwest: Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Huron-Bruce, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, that had higher turnout, probably due to opposition to the Green Energy Act. 

http://www.globaltoronto.com/ontarioelection/111007_turnoutmap_2.html

Tommy_Paine

From the above Glen Murray interview:

 

 

"That’ll be interesting. It’ll depend on the composition of the government. Majority government, it’s a lot easier to do those things"

Gee whiz Glen, it seems it was even harder to do those things when you had a majority.  Two majorities in a row. 

Damn, this guy is smarmy.

edmundoconnor

Well, gosh, with a majority and all, you could have *gasp* passed a sex-ed curriculum that took some notice of queers, and no power on earth would have legally stopped you! Oh, wait. You didn't.

Remind me: who pandered to homophobes? It sure wasn't the ONDP.

Lord Palmerston

No kidding.  Murray is being obtuse.  

Wilf Day

Nine new NDP MPPs:

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/CindyForster_media.j...

Cindy Forster, 58, Registered Nurse and former Mayor of Welland, works for Ontario Nurses Association as labour relations officer.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/MoniqueTaylor-croppe...

Monique Taylor, 39, Assistant to Councillor Scott Duvall.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Sarah-Campbell-cropp...

Sarah Campbell, 29, Constituency Assistant and Outreach Coordinator for former NDP leader Howard Hampton, and represents Oxdrift on the Kenora District Services Board.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/TheresaArmstrong-med...

Teresa Armstrong, 45, insurance broker, immigrated from Portugal in 1968.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/jagmeetSingh_media1....

Jagmeet Singh, 32, lawyer

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/JohnVantof-media-300...

John Vanthof, 48, dairy farmer, ten-year President of the Temiskaming Federation of Agriculture, four-year Dairy Farmers of Ontario Director, and 12-year municipal councillor

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/MichaelMantha-media1...

Mike Mantha, former Steelworkers' staffer.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/TarasNatyshak-Essex-...

Taras Natyshak, 33, Labourers' Union Director of Training

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/JonahSchein-media.jp...

Jonah Schein, social worker, has worked as a coordinator of the Civic Engagement Program since 2006. 

 

Stockholm

I think the ONDP caucus is vastly better than it was before. I don't have anything against Hampton or Kormos but they had both been there for over 20 years and its good to see some turnover and get rid of the classes of '87 and '90 and get some new blood.

I heard that the old caucus of 10 was kind of dysfuntional with several of the MPPs barely on speaking terms with one another. Now out of 17 MPPs - 9 are brand new (and two more France Gelinas and Paul Miller were first elected in '07) - two there are young people like Sarah Campbell and Jonah Shein and Monique Taylor. A man with an agricultural background like John Vanthof. A guy like Taras Natyshak who also has some agricultural experience and also has a business. and best of all Jagmeet Singh who is a criminal lawyer and gives the NDP some representation from the South Asian community.

Lord Palmerston

Kormos will be missed.  But I'm glad there's another bright criminal lawyer in the ONDP caucus.

howeird beale

Stockholm wrote:

I think the ONDP caucus is vastly better than it was before.  A man with an agricultural background like John Vanthof. A guy like Taras Natyshak who also has some agricultural experience and also has a business. and best of all Jagmeet Singh who is a criminal lawyer and gives the NDP some representation from the South Asian community.

And Jagmeet nicely compliments the new South Asian MP, Scarborough-Rouge River MP Rathika Sitsabaiesan.

And, along with that a nurse, and a steelworker, and a group of women.

The gentleman who runs the dairy farmers association should be sent around the province for the next four years introducing himself in every rural riding in the province. Here's a big industry with a serious lobbying/ advertising budget:

Quote:
We are the marketing group for the largest sector of Ontario agriculture and
are proudly owned and operated by Ontario's Dairy Farmers.

The fact that he could get elected to head up that arm of that industry implies he must be able to cut an impressive figure with his fellow businesspeople in the agricultural industry. He should be gladhanding at every Lion and Rotary meeting for the next four years. And phoning people to let them know when he'll be addressing their issue: ie- impending destruction of prime farmland and the entire provincial water table by the aggregate industry near Hornings Mills,

http://rabble.ca/news/2011/09/melancthon-quarry-galvanizes-those-against-it

in the Legislature;

"Hey, that NDP fella, he phoned me to let me know he's gonna bring up what I told him on TV tomorrow and when it'll be on. Well, I'll be darned."

Wilf Day

First salvo of citizen lobbying of minority legislature. Many more will follow:

http://www.theobserver.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3329314

Quote:
Ideally, the opposition will force the Liberals into abandoning the fiscally-irresponsible move to close jails in Sarnia, Walkerton and Owen Sound.

Opponents to the move have pointed out in great detail the added costs that transporting prisoners to and from a super jail in Windsor would bring to taxpayers.

Following the election, the Opposition holds the balance of power on the voting floor and this will force McGuinty and his government to facilitate more input into their policies. Olive branches will have to be extended and compromises reached if the Liberals will have any hope of getting any part of its legislative agenda passed. The iron fist method of rule will finally be gone. The public has no appetite for another election any time soon, which will force the Liberals into operating in a much more co-operative way. If they don't, nothing will be accomplish and they can guarantee an even bigger backlash during the next election.

The new minority Liberal government could be very good for Ontarians. Talk of Sarnia Mayor Mike Bradley working with mayors of Chatham-Kent and London to form a southwestern Ontario political alliance will also help our opposition backbenchers gain more strength in Queen's Park.

lil.Tommy

I agree, i think the New caucus is vastly better than before, mostly due to: more women, 7 out of 17 not to bad (41%), new beach heads in Peel and Essex, Suburban and Rural areas of the province; Youth: Campbell (28), Singh (32), Natyshak (34, birthday today the 12th!), Taylor (39)... not sure about Schein, but i'm betting hes in his 30s too. As said before, i'm hoping Rosario can see the writing on the wall and let this be his last stand, and go out on his own terms. This urban, diverse ridings needs some new life. We've already floated some names like Karen Sun..

I also agree these new faces need to be utilised strategically, as mentioned about Vanthof anf Grant Robertson should be inseperable when touring the province... why not pump another candidate who knows his stuff.

So criticism time, Windsor and Thunder Bay should have been gains? Any feedback on that?  

Wilf Day

lil.Tommy wrote:

So criticism time, Windsor and Thunder Bay should have been gains? Any feedback on that?

Turnouts even lower than putrid provincial average:

Thunder Bay - Atikokan 47.00%

Thunder Bay - Superior North 49.40%

Windsor - Tecumseh 45.10%

Windsor West 42.30%

Oshawa 44.90%

York South - Weston 46.30%

Scarborough - Rouge River 44.00%

Scarborough Southwest 48.90%

York West 40.10%

Scarborough Centre 45.50%

Brant 48.70%

Cambridge 47.10%

Kingston and the Islands 46.60%

But these are exceptions; in tight races, especially three-way races, turnout should be higher than average. It was in Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie, Ottawa Centre, Stormont - Dundas - South Glengarry, Peterborough, Toronto Centre, Guelph, Huron-Bruce, London West, Elgin - Middlesex - London, Sarnia - Lambton, and others, as well as the pick-ups in Algoma - Manitoulin, Timiskaming - Cochrane, Hamilton Mountain and Essex.

lil.Tommy

We can't just blame turnout can we?

Also, can the NDP make this embarassing turout a way to introduce (push for) electoral reform? i.e. Online voting, reducing the voting age to 16, making election days civic holidays... oh ya and SOME form of PR (MMP perhaps would be nice, the scottish model would do best in ontario since were a province of regions... but thats a whole-nother thread i'm sure) :P

Howard

Big improvement for the NDP caucus. It is one thing to see a gain of 70% in seats. It is another thing to have a lot of the new MPPs being so accomplished and diverse. The Ontario NDP has a real good mix developing. With the recent success it may also allow MPPs that may want to retire, but might have worried about retaining their seats, to consider other options.

I know this will probably sound like sacrilege here, but I would like the Ontario NDP to work with the PCs on issues of affordability that they both campaigned on in the last election. I don't think that we should give the PCs credibility but the cost of inaction, particularly given McGuinty's recent bravado and arrogance, is too costly.

edmundoconnor

lil.Tommy wrote:

We can't just blame turnout can we?

Also, can the NDP make this embarassing turout a way to introduce (push for) electoral reform? i.e. Online voting, reducing the voting age to 16, making election days civic holidays... oh ya and SOME form of PR (MMP perhaps would be nice, the scottish model would do best in ontario since were a province of regions... but thats a whole-nother thread i'm sure) :P

Alex Salmond announces that 16- and 17-year-olds will be able to vote in the 2015 Scottish independence referendum.

Wilf Day

lil.Tommy wrote:

We can't just blame turnout can we?

Turnout is not an abstraction. I never met a voter who decided to go to the polls and then decided who to vote for.

Potential NDP voters in Thunder Bay and Windsor didn't vote enough to win those ridings.

Now, it's conceivable that the low turnout on Thunder Bay and Windsor was entirely discouraged PC voters who knew they were running third. I doubt it, since PC voters are more loyal and less easily discouraged than Liberal voters and NDP voters.

In ridings where the NDP is in contention, low turnout is a failure of the NDP campaign.

This is an entirely separate issue from potential NDP voters staying home in ridings where they think their vote will be futile. That's a rational decision.

lil.Tommy

Its sounding more like a failure of the NDP machine in TB and Windsor to target then get the vote out.

I don't agree thats rational, in ridings where they think their vote is futile or on the other hand not needed could as we saw cost the NDP seats like the close call in Trinity-Spadina or York South-Weston. But more and more ridings are now targets, small city/rural ridings like Guelph, Cambridge, Kingston and the Islands... The campaign needs to get the message out, no vote is wasted.

But i do think the party should push for AT LEAST online voting and reducing the voting age.

Oh, and Dalton's again being a sore winner: "There will be lots of opportunity for input from the opposition as the Legislature resumes," said a terse statement from McGuinty's office.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1067749--mcguinty-te...

Wilf Day

Bob Hepburn:

Quote:
Since he has only a minority, McGuinty needs the support of either the NDP or the Conservatives to pass any piece of legislation, big or small. More often than not, that support will likely come from the NDP.

It’s been 26 years since the Ontario NDP had such power — and the urge to flex its muscles will be tempting.

In the coming months, Horwath will demand concessions from the Liberals on everything from tax cuts to public transit fare freezes and implementation of a “Buy Ontario” policy. Few of her demands will be met, though, because McGuinty will correctly gamble that none of them are do-or-die issues for the NDP.

Health care, however, could be a totally different issue. That’s because health spending will come under severe challenges due to the financial crisis facing the province as a result of the economic downturn.

On health, Horwath can use her new-found clout most effectively by holding McGuinty to his word to boost spending. She can also withdraw the NDP’s support if, in his bid to balance the budget, McGuinty makes deep cuts to services, closes hospitals or fails to make significant strides in improving the delivery of services.

McGuinty promised during the election to increase spending on health care, reduce emergency room wait times, invest in new hospitals and focus more on home care and community care.

It all sounds great, but Ontario residents have heard it before.

True, the Liberals have made some progress in all those areas over the past seven years in office. However, they have fallen far short of meeting even their own modest promises, especially in home care and community care.

In the past year, two major studies — one by the Ontario auditor general’s office and the other prepared for the government by the consulting firm Deloitte — documented a health-care system in chaos, with huge waiting lists for home care and school care and how Queen’s Park had held back hundreds of millions of dollars promised to help seniors live in their own homes.

. . . Horwath needs to decide what, realistically, she wants McGuinty to do on health care and let him know exactly what would happen if he fails to meet her demands at least part way.

The timing is right for these moves because McGuinty, wanting to convey the idea of renewed commitment toward health, is rumoured to be looking at Kathleen Wynne, a former education minister, to replace Deb Matthews as health minister.

If he replaces Matthews, it will be a clear sign McGuinty senses that health care will be a make-or-break issue for his minority government.

That’s why Horwath must refocus on health care — and in doing so make a real difference in the lives of all Ontario residents.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1068699--hepburn-horwath-s-chance-to-make-a-difference

Farmpunk

I wouldn't pin too many ag\rural hopes on Vanthof and Natyshak.  Dairy farmers are not terribly popular with non-supply managed farmers and they certainly are not "small" farms, for the most part.  The number of dairy farmers in Ontario shrinks almost every year and trade pressures may eventually erode the strength of the dairy sector.  If you have two million dollars to spare you might be able to get into Ontario's milk industry.  That's just facts, folks.

Natyshak's ag experience is minimal from what I understand.  He's a great talker, mind you, and has a lot of energy.  But he's going to have to appease a lot of rural and farming people in Essex without government support for NDP ideas.  I would guess his support came from Belle River, Harrow, Colchester, Amherstburg, the town of Essex, and less from rural people in "the county". 

Wilf Day

Farmpunk wrote:

Natyshak's ag experience is minimal from what I understand.  He's a great talker, mind you, and has a lot of energy.  But he's going to have to appease a lot of rural and farming people in Essex without government support for NDP ideas.  I would guess his support came from Belle River, Harrow, Colchester, Amherstburg, the town of Essex, and less from rural people in "the county". 

I didn't even think of Essex as a rural riding; is it much more than 20% rural?

takeitslowly

Schein is a hottie. SORRY i just had to say that.

Wilf Day

Adam Radwanski:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/how-bold-can-mcguinty-be/article2199468/?from=sec431

Quote:
Some Liberals will be wary of making their next budget too provocative, since it will be the first big opportunity for the opposition parties to bring them down. But others contend that neither the NDP nor the Progressive Conservatives will be looking to force another election within a few months of the last one, and that the latter in particular would be hard-pressed to campaign against belt-tightening.

Suddenly I picture Hudak having to send some of his guys out of the room while the NDP stands up against a brutal budget. I love the picture!

But I actually prefer working with the Liberals to save Ontario from that outcome. If they are willing, which we don't know yet.

Howard

It looks like the NDP is preparing to make full use of that majority on committees that Stockholm talked about, by refusing to nominate a candidate for speaker eventhough Cheri Di Novo was touted to win.

Also, take it easy on dairy farmers. A lot of them are the legacy owners of business inherited through their families. While the situation of dairy farmers is very different from that of non-dairy farmers (due to the trade issues you specify, among many other reasons), they are still part of the aggie and rural family.

Let's hope Vanthof and Natyshak are just the bleeding edge of better things to come...

Ciabatta2

 

They're part of the family but quite distant cousins. There is a pretty big chasm between the supply-managed sectors, traditional farmers in sectors that aren't supply-managed, and organic farms.  In particular for the latter that assert that they're squeezed between the supply management regs that restrict their ability to grow their businesses in supply-managed sectors and the traditional guys that undercut them on price.  Of course, this is a generalization but Farmpunk is essentially correct.  Each group has their own unique set of pressures that makes their needs and priorities quite distinct.

 

Vanthof can be a strong ag voice but his cred will be knocked down a few pegs outside of the dairy world, since he comes from a sector where income is nearly guaranteed and many farmers are millionaires, on paper at least.

KenS

We have a lot of dairy farmer supporters in Nova Scotia as well. Interesting about that: it would appear that getting your nose away from severly pressed to the grindstone gives one 'space' for looking more to social democratic values.

At any rate, even for the lack of love for and credibility in dairy farmers, for the ag sector, better them than no one. And remember that most people in the ag sector, or close to it, are not primarily dependent on income from a farm. Gernerally not even largely dependent on farm income. That very often is not really by choice, but its still not the same mind set as the every day grind of living by farming.

Wilf Day

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Vanthof can be a strong ag voice but his cred will be knocked down a few pegs outside of the dairy world, since he comes from a sector where income is nearly guaranteed and many farmers are millionaires, on paper at least.

Then how come he was for ten years President of the Temiskaming Federation of Agriculture?

Life, the unive...

Sorry, this is way off topic.  But supply management does not restrict organic production.  I know a number of organic farm operations in both dairy and feather.  Grant Robertson was mentioned above- well he's an organic chicken farmer and beef too.  He made a joke at the Holmesville Ag debate that he makes money on chickens to lose it on beef.  

Anyway, outside his area I don't think Vanthof is particularly well known, if at all.  That might be an advantage actually as there will be no expectations of him.  If Vanthof can be down to earth and humourous the NDP might have a chance to grow, but the test isn't the relative postions of supply managed farmers, it is the ability to understand the needs of non-supply managed farmers.  IF Vanthof can do that- things will be fine.  If not the NDP is going to need to do something to support Grant Robertson as he is a great communicator of NDP values in the rural/small town context, but is stuck in a riding where nuclear power is responsible for thousands and thousands of jobs directly and indirectly.  If he was in any other riding- he would probably be in caucus already.  

KenS

Wilf Day wrote:

Then how come he was for ten years President of the Temiskaming Federation of Agriculture?

Because dairy farmers can afford the luxury of spending LOTS of time on the Fed. Wink

Stockholm

BTW: I our discussion of all the new diversity in the ONDP caucus (ie: women, young people, farmers, a Sikh, francophones etc...), I was wondering, is Jonah Schein Jewish? If so, that is one more bit of diversity to add to the caucus.

Ciabatta2

Re: LTU you are correct, supply management doesn't restrict organic production; it does restrict non-quota production.  Most organic production is non-quota. It depends on the scope of the operation.  For many organic farmers, small flock exemptions are more than enough.  But for a others, the exemptions aren't.

Quote:
Then how come he was for ten years President of the Temiskaming Federation of Agriculture?

There are two big ag sectors in the claybelt - beef cattle and dairy. The dairy guys are full-time, comparatively well-off, and very organized.  The beef guys are more of a mixed bag - more part-timers than the dairy crew, some hoobyists (you can't really be a hobbyist in the milk world), not unlike the old MPP Ramsay who was a farmer while also a municipal administrator (and a college teacher too maybe? not sure.)  There is other ag activity up there, some oilseeds/grain, other livestock, but it's minimal compared to the two.

I'm not suggesting that Vanthof can't be a good ag voice. But as a dairy farmer he is not representative at all of most farmers. It's not the end of the world but it's something he'll have to overcome. I also agree that Robertson would have been an excellent ag rep.

Life, the unive...

Ciabatta2 wrote:

That is correct, supply management doesn't restrict organic production; it does restrict non-quota production.  Most organic production is non-quota. It depends on the scope of the operation.  For many organic farmers, small flock exemptions are more than enough.  But for a others, the exemptions aren't.

 

 

 

Sorry- again this incorrect.  Most organic production in dairy is not non-quota for instance - totally wrong.  Organic Meadow and Harmony come easily to mind and there are probably more.  Any organic feather production that is of a scale to provide a realistic farm income to sustain a family is also within quota.  I can think, without even travelling outside my area, of a number of organic turkey, egg and broiler farms - all within quota.  Sure there are those who think they shouldn't have to pay for being a part of the system and there are some problems with new and starting farmers in terms of capital to get in- but your statements that quota undermines the growth in organics is totally 100% wrong.  Supply management is a good system and it is far right libertarians idiots like Michael Schmidt who tried to do an end run around quota- and used raw milk as an excuse and a means to do that- that spread this misinformation.  And I say this as an organic farmer who has been farming for decades and who raises small flock organic chickens,  turkeys, beef and lamb as a part of our CSA system.

I am old enough to remember what it was like before supply managemet came into being.  It sucked.  I am old enough to remember when beef farmers rejected becoming supply managed.  The cowboy attitude has backfired on the whole industry - organic (like me) or not.

 

Ciabatta2

I'm sorry it is not incorrect at all.  I encourage you to go back and read what was written.

No one here is knocking supply management, advocating its dismantling or saying organic farming can't be integrated into the supply management system.

All that's been said are two things.  1) that lots of organic farming is done outside the supply management sphere.  You can scale it all you want but that's the truth. Dairy is a red herring because of the costs - you're not going to invest in the all the equipment if you don't have quota.   In eastern Ontario, where I'm from, very few of the organic egg and poultry guys I know are quota.  Families that I've known have run up against the system and they're anything but right-wing smash-the-system libertarians.  It's a constant point of discussion.

and that 2) some in the organic community are *asserting* that supply management limits organic production.  Yes, you and I agree that that assertion is wrong.   But that doesn't mean the criticism doesn't exist, that this isn't a topic of debate, and that it isn't a part of the dynamic between the different communities within the industry.  These are the types of issues Vanthof is going to come up against and plugging his ears and going "la-la-la..." will get him nowhere fast.

I'm from a farming family - farms on two sides; one organic out in eastern Ont, one traditional, in southwestern Ont; neither supply managed - and both have always been and always will be strongly 100 percent in favour of supply management regardless of not being in the system.  As you have implied, it's necessary for our economy and security.  My father, the cattleman, always rued the day his predeccessors decided to go it alone.  If they hadn't I'd probably be running the farm now.  Both always spoke fondly of their colleagues in dairy, egg and poultry (dairy in particular is a gruelling lifestyle); many of the others I grew up with, however, were less than charitable.

But just because that how I've been raised and that's what I believe in doesn't mean I'm going to pretend that every guy with an issue with the system is a whacko, or that the conflict doesn't exist - because I've lived it.  That kind of attitude will only serve to weaken support for supply management, not strengthen it.

Farmpunk

Wilf: Essex is most definitely a rural riding.  Windsor is the "city" for the region.  The areas between Windsor and London are, I would suggest, rural ridings\areas.  That doesn't mean that there are no urban areas.  But there is nothing of any urban size relative to the restof the province.  For that, I call Essex rural. 

I don't think supply managed feather and dairy is going anywhere in Ontario.  Once the border is opened, everyone with a grain of ag sense knows that the profitable poultry and dairy farms, and the businesses that supply them, would disappear overnight. That's really in no one's interest except uneducated consumers and importers.  Ontario imported 160 million dollars worth of beef in September, if my memory serves correctly.  

If supply management is tampered with, then consumers would then be dependent on imports and if it was cheap today they'd best be prepared for higher prices tomorrow.  Anyone checked the price of good cuts of pork lately?  Does anyone remember the collapse of the pork industry just three short years ago?

I don't believe that Natyshak has a complete grasp of agriculture.  He has a good enough grip to get by and he can learn, of course but he got into office by courting small and medium sized urban voters with his political skills. But if ag starts to hurt and he's unable to deliver anything as an Dipper, then I fully expect Essex to revert to Lib or PC.  He has a tough row to hoe if commodities continue to dip.  He'd best have a strong constituency office.

Stockholm

I think that the vast majority of voters (as opposed to geography) in Essex riding are in suburban Windsor and in some satellite towns like Leamington and Amherstberg. The number of actual farmers in that riding is quite small.

Wilf Day

Farmpunk wrote:

Wilf: Essex is most definitely a rural riding.  Windsor is the "city" for the region.  The areas between Windsor and London are, I would suggest, rural ridings\areas.  That doesn't mean that there are no urban areas.  But there is nothing of any urban size relative to the restof the province.  For that, I call Essex rural. 

Stats Can, however, does not. To start with, they say 87% of it is within the Windsor Census Metropolitan Area. Furthermore, 37% of it is actually within the Windsor Urban Area (the parts of Lakeshore and LaSalle that a geographer says are part of Windsor and as urban as it is). Then Amherstburg is 62% urban, and the Town of Essex is 61% urban, so only the "Town" of Kingsville (13% of the riding) is majority rural. That makes the riding at least 58% urban.

Farmpunk

I'm not arguing the stats.  And I did say Natyshak's support probably came from the urban areas in Essex.  

Look at at the riding on a map compared to an urban riding like Windsor-West.  Then tell me it's not "rural".  Drive through Essex and tell me it's not rural.    

No one from "the city" would consider Leamington all that urban.  Heck, even I don't.  It has more greenhouses than houses.  

I'd compare Essex to Haldimand-Norfolk and Elgin-Middlesex-London.

Whatever it is, Natyshak won it by being tenacious and a good communicator.  We'll see if he can squeeze the same kind of support from the province (and Windsor-Tecumseh Finance Minister Duncan) that the former Lib, Crozier, was able to achieve. 

lil.Tommy

Krago wrote:

Here's a map showing the poll-by-poll results of the 2011 federal election in Essex.  You can see where Taras Natysahk got his votes (and where he didn't).

When will we have the poll-by-poll for the Provincial results? i'd like to see where Taras won over those who voted Liberal/Tory compared to the Federal.... As well as where the NDP lost out in Toronto ridings compared with the federal votes

Krago

Here's a map showing the poll-by-poll results of the 2011 federal election in Essex.  You can see where Taras Natyshak got his votes (and where he didn't).

Stockholm

Farmpunk wrote:

Look at at the riding on a map compared to an urban riding like Windsor-West.  Then tell me it's not "rural".  Drive through Essex and tell me it's not rural.    

I'm sure that driving around the riding of Essex there will be a lot of rural real estate - but a 1000 acre farm only yields one or two votes while the same 1000 acres in suburban Windsor could have thousands of votes in it. Haldimand Norfolk is a bad comparison since that is a totally rural seat with no urban areas at all. I see Essex as bing comparable to those "rurban" rdings in Saskatchewan like Palliser that consists of a section of Regina, the town of Moose jaw and some assorted rural areas in and around.

Life, the unive...

Can we at least agree that the ONDP has a rural problem (outside the north) and needs to work hard to address it?  It may only be a handful of seats, but it will be the difference between government and opposition, maybe even thrid party status to official opposition.  THe NDP clearly had a strategy that work very well to gain support and seats in the north.  Something similar, by actually paying attention to rural issues, could propel the NDP onto the government benches in the years to come, both federally and provincially.

Aristotleded24

I think part of the NDP success in the North was Dalton's decision to skip the Northern debates. If he had shown up, the NDP probably would not have done as well as it did in the North, and Sudbury probably would not have been that close.

Having said that, yes there are always lessons to learn and next steps to take. In this case, these lessons and next steps include appealing to people in smaller and medium sized communities, if for no other reason than legitimacy. I can't see that an NDP government which sweeps urban Toronto, Brampton-Mississauga, and Ottawa Centre while not winning any rural seats would be seen as a "legitimate" government in the eyes of rural voters.

Gaian

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Can we at least agree that the ONDP has a rural problem (outside the north) and needs to work hard to address it?  It may only be a handful of seats, but it will be the difference between government and opposition, maybe even thrid party status to official opposition.  THe NDP clearly had a strategy that work very well to gain support and seats in the north.  Something similar, by actually paying attention to rural issues, could propel the NDP onto the government benches in the years to come, both federally and provincially.

I've only spent a total of three years in northern Ontario. But always the economic position of New Democrats elected there is not very distinguishable from the others. New Democrats meet with chambers of commerce (gasp) and agonize over the saving of industry and small business. What tips the balance for them is support from labour.

I mentioned this to our leader last winter, pointing out that during the provincial leadership battles a couple of years ago, the northern pretenders to the throne all had core concerns about our collective economic future - the big picture. Andria promised better organization and communication. I'm not sure that she appreciates that northern/southern distinction.

Stockholm

The polls were all showing the NDP set to make big gains in the north even before Dalton skipped the northern debate. I'm not sure if it made that much of a difference. The debate was in Thunder Bay and the Liberals actually held both of their seats there!

The current Liberal minority government has ZERO rural seats. Does that make them "illegitimate"? I guess the flip side of that is that we in Toronto will never see a Tory government as "legitimate" if (as is likely) they form a government with no urban seats!

That being said - right now the NDP - even with just 17 seats - has Welland and Essex which are both seats that have an urban component - that is more than can be said for the Liberals! If the NDP had a major breakthrough and got 35% of the vote - they would almost certainly start winning some more mixed urban rural seats.

Life, the unive...

Actually I heard someone just today that called the McGuinty government illegitimate on one of our local radio stations because it does not represent all of Ontario (ie rural Ontario)

In some ways the NDP is in a special postion with representatives from some of the most urban concentrated ridings in the province and some of the least concentrated and biggest land areas in the province.  If the NDP can learn to bridge the gap in between, such as in southwestern Ontario it could very well find itself in government.   They need to hire some people though that speak the 'language' of rural Ontario and understand our concerns.  The NDP recognizes the need to do that in the GTA, the north and so on.  The rural platorm this election was really good (thanks I suspect to Grant Robertson in large part), but we never heard a peep about it.  Not so the northern platform.  Look at it this way.  Agriculture and food now is the largest economic sector in Ontario having surpassed auto in the last few years with its troubles.  Ag and food creates a very large number of urban jobs too.   And it was never mentioned in the debate, never mentioned much during the campaign and I didn't hear the NDP mention rural issues once beyond a visit to Essex.  That needs to change if the NDP wants government.

Wilf Day

Stockholm wrote:

. . . right now the NDP - even with just 17 seats - has Welland and Essex which are both seats that have an urban/rural component - that is more than can be said for the Liberals!

Interesting point.

The Liberals' most rural seats are:

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (includes part of Ottawa; misleading name) at least 35% rural
Peterborough 34% rural
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale about 28% rural (but all within City of Hamilton)
Brant 15% rural

That's why they need a regional MMP model just as the NDP does, and just as the Toronto conservatives do.

Pages