Ontario 2011 election results

Here are the final predictions for EPP (Election Prediction Project) and 308.com.  I've also plugged the vote switch figures from the last Angus-Reid poll (see page 4) into the UBC vote forecaster.  Taking these three sources, I've put together a 'majority' pick for each riding.

The Liberals would retain 59 seats and lose 13 to the opposition.
The PCs would retain 25 seats and pick up four (Barrie, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Nipissing, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry) from the Liberals.
The NDP would retain 10 seats and pick up nine (Algoma-Manitoulin, Davenport, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Ottawa Centre, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timiskaming-Cochrane, York South-Weston) from the Liberals.

So the combined final meta-prediction (which happens to match mine earlier) is: Liberal 59, PC 29, NDP 19

http://www.democraticspace.com/ON-projections.pdf

democraticspace's final prediction

Mr. Morrow thinks that the Liberals will keep London-Fanshawe, Ottawa Centre and York South-Weston away from the NDP, but lose Kitchener-Conestoga and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex to the Tories.

Lon-Fan, Ott Ctr, YSW are all toss ups. They could go either LIB or NDP, depending on GOTV. Projections are rough ballparks only; they don't help us much in very close races like these. NDP could get anywhere between 12 and 22 seats, depending on how the close races break. I am confident the LIBs will win (albeit be taken down a notch), but it could be a narrow win or a comfortable one. It just depends on these close one-on-one battles.

Seems to have a misprint in 905. He clearly shows possible NDP pickups in Bramalea and Oshawa, yet the range says 0 - 1, not 0 - 2.

Yup, thanks Wilf. Fixed.

Then there is the question of ease of voting. If it comes down to this-- with buses expensive, and service poorer as some major municipalities cut back on busing this year, will there be a difference between the suffrage rates of people busing as opposed to driving? If you have a car and were at home during the day in my area, voting is an under ten minute investment. If you don't it is about a 40 minute investment in walking and perhaps another 30 minutes in waiting if you have to go in the busier evening time. Some of those shift workers simply may not be able at all, be discouraged from going out of fear of crowds, or might try only to have polls close while they are in line.

It may be that the suffrage rates might have something to do with effort required. If you are retired and are 60-70 years old and still driving voting is a heck of a lot easier than if you are working a 12 hour shift, are young and have no car.

Interestingly many of the voting places are not the easiest to get to by public transit either. They are not selected by distance only but also be available venue. The place I vote is far from most of the people voting. I don't know why they are not using the closer venue they used to use here. This means two apartment buildings worth of people most of whom have no cars will walk a long way through a residential neighborhood they are not familiar with to vote. If they indeed do that.

Municipalities could consider free buses for voting if they wanted to get out the vote... Since voters that use transit are more likely to support public services they might be doing themselves a favour.

The results thread was created in advance in order to give the editor a chance to put together a front page promo on rabble.ca

My prediction is 49 Liberals, 37 PCs, 21 NDP.  

NDP pickups are: Algoma-Manitoulin, Davenport, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Ottawa Center, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Atikokan and Superior North, Timiskaming-Cochrane, Windsor West, York South-Weston.

The ridings to watch include Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Essex and Oshawa.

Beauty day factor happenin' for the Algoma riding here. I wanted to vote twice for the NDP candidate, but the poll clerk wouldn't allow it. I operate under the pretense that it never hurts to ask.

Some polls are extended.

I'm personally worried about Kenora-rainy river. Its tory federally and without the former ndp leader it might turn blue.

By the way, toaster, in the predictions thread you were ranking the ridings you thought the NDP would win by what you called "%win" - I was wondering what that meant: the percentage of vote the NDP candidate gets, the candidate's percentage margin of victory, or the percent chance that the candidate wins?

dp

I'm seeing early numbers for Sudbury and Temiskaming Cochrane and I'm getting very nervous.

Only one small poll last I saw T-C.  The riding is largely rural where some polling stations are very one-sided and completely unpredictable of the final vote.  In this same riding in the election 5 months ago the Liberal was winning Temiskaming all night, but ended up losing by something like 7 votes based on the last polling station or two to report.

Even the Thunder Bay ridings aren't looking great, but again these are only one or 2 polls reporting.

Horwath elected in her riding.

France Gélinas (NDP - Nickel Belt) elected.

PLEASE! I REALLY HOPE MICHAEL PRUE PULLS AHEAD!!

Leading/elected:

LIB   48

PC    36

NDP  15

yeah. they incorrectly said the Liberals won Parkdale High Park federally in 2011. they seemed to say that Gerard Kennedy was an NDPer. they said it was a NDP stronghold. Who are these fools?

CBC announces a Liberal government???? CBC admit the Liberals don't yet have a majority of seats. How can the CBC claim this? BLATANT CHEERLEADING?

Paul Miller (NDP-Hamilton East - Stoney Creek) elected

There are a few NDP seats where the Liberals are currently leading, while some Liberal seats are currently NDP. Hope the stars line up.

What's up with this "the NDP is disappointed with its results up north?" The NDP is currently leading in a few seats, including Sudbury, which was supposed to be a lock for the local MPP.

Cindy Forster elected.

Rosario Marchese might be in trouble in T-S. :(

Let's go Peter Tabuns! Teresa Armstrong! Mary Kozorys!

Yasir Naqvi elected.  :(  My riding.  Ugh.

Michael Mantha (Algoma Manitoulin) Elected

Gilles Bisson elected

It looks like London Fanshawe is going NDP, a take from the Liberals.

This is NDP M.P. Irene Matheson's ridding Federally.

Jagmeet Singh starting to pull away in BGM.

This is a wonderful night for the Liberals.  Not just provincially, but federally too as it may point to the possible resurrection of the federal brand in Ontario:  

But even one of [Harper's] MPs, chatting casually in a cafeteria lineup in the Centre Block this week, was worried.

"It means the Liberal party is back," he said, having in mind the federal Liberal party, crushed so decisively in Ontario in the May election.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/stephen-harper-may-bigges...

Leading/elected:

LIB   53

PC    37

NDP 17

GRN  0

I think Dalton McGuinty may just miss out on a majority by a couple of seats, and if that happens it will be because of the only mistake he made in this campaign - writing off Northern Ontario.  By not attending the N. Ontario debate and conceding the area to the NDP, it may be what costs him a 3rd majority.

But overall, it is a historic victory - the first time in a century that a Liberal leader has been elected 3 times in Ontario.  And of course, only a few months ago, most pundits had predicted McGuinty dead and proclaimed Hudak the new Premier.

Taras Natyshak (NDP - Essex) elected!

NDP has elected 11, surpassing the 2007 results

 The big loser is Hudak.  I really think if the Conservatives ran someone who wasn't a nut bar, they would have won a majority.  The more people saw of this creepy creepazoid, the more they didn't like him.

So far, it seems only Andrea Horwath can say she increased her share of seats.

(correction-- Hudak has increased his seats, but from where the party sat in polls not to long ago, that has still got to be a dissapointment.)

There's no doubt the Liberals are going to lose between 15 and 20 seats tonight and have a much smaller majority (if it ends up being a majority) than they did going into this election.  I myself predicted the Liberals would lose that number on a previous thread.  It was never in doubt.

But obviously it is a victory for McGuinty.  Just look at the threads on Rabble earlier this year predicting him to be dead as a doornail. 

Nice to see Bob Chiarelli holding off ultra-con Randal Denley so far in Ottawa West.

Also nice to see Laura Albanese competitive in York South-Weston.

Looks like Yasir Naqvi is heading for a huge victory in Ottawa Centre.  That one was expected to be close.

Interesting to see that the Liberals have a slight lead in  Glengarry - Prescott - Russell.  Federally that riding has gone Conservative, but perhaps Francophones remember the PC's policies in closing the Montfort and are staying with the Libs.

I really don't want to see a liberal majority.

Peter Tabuns elected

Still early, but elected/leading:

LIB  53

PC   37

NDP 17

Close race in Oshawa - I wish the NDP luck in taking down the PC's there:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/ridings/061/

Woohooo Taras!!!! Essex a very lucky riding, no one will work harder for you than he.

i think it would be awful if liberal wins a majority even after what they did at the g20 in toronto..

Good to see Kathleen Wynne easily re-elected.  She is openly gay and the PC's (eg. Vince Agovino) targeted her in this election with anti-gay literature.

She could be the successor to McGuinty. 

How many more times is Paul Ferreria going to run?

Lorenzo Berardinetti holds off Budd.

LB didn't exactly run a good campaign though.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/ridings/084/ 

Not true.  If the Liberals win the most seats, but without a majority it is still a Liberal minority government.  Things can change in the weeks after that as happened in 1985 when the Libs and NDP joined forces.  However, in that election the PCs with their 52 seats remained the government.  Bob Rae introduced a motion of non-confidence which brought down the government and then the LG asked Peterson if he could form a government.  Peterson was not asked first even though the Libs and NDP together held the majority of seats.  It was entirely ok for CBC, CTV and the rest to call it a Liberal government when they did.

Looks like Davenport has taken a Schein to the NDP!

So there are 11 seats undecided

Liberals leading in 7 PC 2 and NDP 2

The Liberals are on the majority number but they have more of the undecided seats where it could flip back

Leading/elected:

LIB   54

PC     37

NDP  17

GRN  0

and it was Trinity Spadina that flipped back

Trinity-Spadina, NDP back in lead

53 L

37 PC

17 NDP

"It's interesting that the Conservatives ran out of gas and their message didn't get very far." - Olivia Chow

Trinity Spadina in lead, Sudbury now Libs are leading.  

That 35% of this province would vote for Hudak's Conservatives is, frankly, frightening as hell.

Relieved Rosario's pulled ahead. Very sad for YSW.

Singh is elected

York South--Weston is essentially out of reach.  Ferreira needs to gain something like 18 votes over Albanese for every outstanding poll.

Olivia mentioned that the lack of affordable housing in downtown may be forcing some lower-income people out, and this would naturally have an impact on the NDP vote.

Hudak congratulates Horwath as "respectful, thoughtful, and passionate" 

i kind of like Hudak personally , more so than Dalton. ugh. I pray this is going to be a minority government.

Marchese elected

Just watched a bit of Hudak's speech - he reminds me of "The Joker" as played by Jack Nicholoson, and he doesn't need makeup.

Schein elected

Bummer. Grant and I have been FB friends for a while.

It now looks like the most the Liberals can win is 53 seats.   So minority is almost certainly will be(barring some weird changes in any recounts).

Crowd in Hamilton notedly more pumped up than at Hudak rally.

dalton will be one seat short of a majority. woot. i am sure the conservative will help them when dalton want to pass those huge corporate tax cuts.

Yup

Horwath: "New Democrats have the strongest mandate we have had in 20 years." 

Bartolucci hangs on in Sudbury by about 500 votes.

It's all over in York South-Weston. Only 7 polls to go and Ferreira is 800 votes behind.

I'm not sure I'd be calling Davenport or Trinity-Spadina just yet, either - very narrow leads in both and still 25-30 polls to declare in each.

Disappointing result in Windsor West. The scuttlebutt seems to be that the NDP did not nominate a particularly strong candidate.

This puts Horwath in a healthy position to take credit sometimes for putting pressure on the Liberals, but never have to take responsibility for anything that goes wrong.

Undeclareds according to CBC:

Kitchener Centre (Liberals leading)

Niagara Falls (Liberals leading)

Northumberland-Quinte West (Tories leading)

Perth-Wellington (Tories leading)

York South-Weston (Liberals leading) - not sure why this one is not declared, Ferreira can't possibly close the gap with only 5 polls left.

ETA: Globe is calling Perth-Wellington for the Tories and York-South Weston for the Liberals.

The electoral landscape looks very similar to the 2008 federal election - Liberals holding steady in Fortress GTA, the Tories dominating rural southern Ontario, and the NDP doing well in the North, Hammertown and downtown Toronto.

Liberal lead in Kitchener Centre is a 200 vote gap but only 4 polls left.  Liberal lead in Niagara has a 500 vote gap but 40 polls or so remaining.  No updates in Northumberalnd-QW where the PC lead is 600 but 10 polls left and no updates in the last 15 minutes.  As long as John Milloy holds in the first riding, it's all riding on Kim Craitor and Lou Rinaldi.  If the first can survive and teh second come back from behind (10 polls left means it isn't implausible) then the Liberals have their majority.

So many close races.  Majority/minority could be decided on the recounts.  Or a last minute change-of-heart floor-crossing.

CBC declares Liberal minority government.

Christ...is the CAW EVER going to stop punishing the ONDP for the Rae years?  Rae was turfed out fifteen years ago and now HE's a Liberal.  What's it going to take to get the CAW to finally let this go?

Agree.  CAW needs to know that the NDP are their only true friends.

Congrads Jagmeet!  Wished he had won Federally, though.

Both Milloy (Lib) and Milligan (PC) are pulling ahead in Kitchener and Northmb. so yep it looks like 53 barring flips in Davenport and Niagara Falls (both 30 odd polls to go) and recounts and switcheroos.  With only one seat necessary there's gotta be a PCer (less likely any of the New Dems) willing to cross the floor.  Wouldn't rule it out.

Exciting photo finish.

Yes, except the Speaker must always vote in favour of the 'status quo', which in a confidence situation means voting with the government.

Has Hudak said whether he's staying on as opposition leader yet? 

He can probably blame whoever put out the transgender-bashing leaflet for the Tory defeat, given the margin.

Am I the only one who finds McGuinty opening his speech by talking about the Liberals moving forward without mentioning that he heard the message that voters sent him a trifle arrogant? What's this crap about "Ontarians voting to move forward the Ontario way?" Earth to Dalton: out of what looks like an even declining share of Ontarians who voted, they unequivocally rebuked your administration and told you that the status quo is not good enough.

I would be very, very surprised if either the NDP or PCs allowed one of their members to stand for speaker. Peter Milliken was able to stand (and be elected) as Speaker in the 2006 and 2008 minority Parliaments because there was no chance he would have to break a tie on a confidence vote - even with an Opposition MP in the Speaker's chair, the Opposition parties still had plenty of votes to ensure the Government's defeat. You can be sure that if Harper was one seat short of a majority that nobody from the Opposition parties would have run for Speaker - they would have forced them to elect one of their own MPs.

I didn't know the U.K. had a tradition of ceremonially 'kidnapping' MPs who are candidates for Speaker. I only thought that they ceremonially held one MP 'hostage' at Buckingham Palace during the Throne Speech, in order to ensure the safe return of the Sovereign. I do know there is a tradition of "dragging" the Speaker to the chair (which is also followed in Canada) that dates back to the days when the Speaker literally was the spokesman for Parliament to the Sovereign. If the Sovereign didn't like what Parliament had to say, the Speaker might find his head detached from his neck. Hence the tradition of the person elected as Speaker pretending to resist being dragged to the chair.

Does anyone know the popular vote counts?

The gaps in Davenport and Niagara Falls have widened and there are only a handful of polls left to report, so I think they can be called for the NDP and Liberals, respectively.

I don't disagree with Ciabatta2's assessment that it could have been a lot worse for the Liberals (especially the way things looked just a few months ago), but at the time same time, given the pro-incumbent sentiment that seems to be in the air across the country and the completely inept campaign run by Hudak and the PCs, finishing barely 2 points ahead of the Tories and losing 18 seats (and their majority) is not exactly a stunning achievement. Proof, I suppose, that campaigns really do matter.

I'd love to have seen the look on Warren Kinsella's face when he realized his vaunted Liberal war room came up one lousy seat short of a majority.

So, when can we expect a visit from Debater crowing about the Dear Leader's sweeping victory?

As of this second, 37.5%, 35.32%, 22.94%, 2.95%

It might have been if they hadn't been expected to lose badly a couple of months ago. On balance, I think they'll take it and be happy.

Nonsense of course.  Almost everyone in the political class in Ontario knows this was a devastating night for the PC's, not the Liberals.  Dalton McGuinty made history by becoming the first Ontario Liberal Premier in over 100 years to win 3 terms, and almost won 3 back to back majorities.  He entered the election behind Tim Hudak in the polls who had all but been anointed the next Premier, and yet managed to get re-elected despite a tough economy.  

And of course this was McGuinty's last election.  Pointing that out is irrelevant.  It will obviously be time for a new leader after 3 terms.  Very few Premiers stay longer than that.

If the tone of McGuinty's speech was any indication, he's not going to step down voluntarily.

True ture. Nothing should ever be taken for granted.

Someone almost nailed it (missed by one)

• http://rabble.ca/sites/rabble.ca/themes/dreamyrabble/images/nodelinks/su...); background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; display: inline; text-transform: lowercase; background-position: 0% 3px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; margin: 0px;">flag as offensive

A political rabble-rouser

Member: 11438
Joined: Sep 19 2005

October 4, 2011 - 11:58am
#6 (permalink)

Well here are my predictions

Liberal   54

PC        37

NDP      16

No Tories seats in Toronto.

• http://rabble.ca/sites/rabble.ca/themes/dreamyrabble/images/nodelinks/su...); background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; display: inline; text-transform: lowercase; background-position: 0% 3px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; margin: 0px;">flag as offensive