Ontario 2018 Election Results & Discussion

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NorthReport
Ontario 2018 Election Results & Discussion
NorthReport
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

So...I read on here over the weekend that the PC's took 34% of the advance vote, the ONDP took 30% and the OLP took 27%.  For purposes of comparison, does anyone know how the advance vote broke in 2014?

Sean in Ottawa

Ken Burch wrote:

So...I read on here over the weekend that the PC's took 34% of the advance vote, the ONDP took 30% and the OLP took 27%.  For purposes of comparison, does anyone know how the advance vote broke in 2014?

How would we know that? These votes are not counted yet. They could only be some form of a poll.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

exit polling evidently

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

progressive17 wrote:

exit polling evidently

That makes sense.  Are we assuming people were telling the truth to the exit pollsters?  If not, which group of voters would be most likely to say they voted in a way they didn't vote?  PC, OLP, or ONDP early voters?

Sean in Ottawa

Ken Burch wrote:

progressive17 wrote:

exit polling evidently

That makes sense.  Are we assuming people were telling the truth to the exit pollsters?  If not, which group of voters would be most likely to say they voted in a way they didn't vote?  PC, OLP, or ONDP early voters?

I don't see it -- Exit polls may happen on election day but there is no system I have heard of for exit polls to ask people extensively over many days of advance polls -- plus this would be just another poll and not really a good one since it is spread out  unlike an election day exit poll.

To settle this do we have any source for this data?

robbie_dee

I think that since advance polling opened some pollsters were asking "have you already voted" and for whom? According to Macleans/Pollara as of June 4 the early voters they spoke to broke 43% PC and 36% NDP.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-p...

 

Sean in Ottawa

robbie_dee wrote:

I think that since advance polling opened some pollsters were asking "have you already voted" and for whom? According to Macleans/Pollara as of June 4 the early voters they spoke to broke 43% PC and 36% NDP.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-p...

 

The problem here is that this data was stated to be a vote total. All of these speculations mean that it is a poll -- and one of dubious accuracy.

robbie_dee

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The problem here is that this data was stated to be a vote total. All of these speculations mean that it is a poll -- and one of dubious accuracy.

I'm not sure I understand your point? Obviously we won't have any results until Thursday. I guess you are saying we should be discussing the polling results purporting to break down the advance votes in the polling thread instead of the results thread? I'm cool with that. The polls could be wrong and the advance poll estimates from the polls have an even greater chance of being wrong since they are just a subset of a sample. Consensus of those polls seems to be that the PCs are ahead of the NDP in early votes though, for whatever its worth.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

This is not a real exit poll. Real exit polls are often very accurate, as they have huge samples.

Oh well, if Ontario votes for Ford, the lawsuit is still on. If the charges are true, this is a criminal investigation. Let's see your books, Dougie, so we can see your Midas Touch! You can tell us they are confidential, but you can't tell Hizonner or Heronner that.

1/4 of Canada's GDP is up in the air because of Donald Trump. Maybe Dougie can sell him some labels, printed in Chicago of course...

Sean in Ottawa

progressive17 wrote:

This is not a real exit poll. Real exit polls are often very accurate, as they have huge samples.

Oh well, if Ontario votes for Ford, the lawsuit is still on. If the charges are true, this is a criminal investigation. Let's see your books, Dougie, so we can see your Midas Touch! You can tell us they are confidential, but you can't tell Hizonner or Heronner that.

1/4 of Canada's GDP is up in the air because of Donald Trump. Maybe Dougie can sell him some labels, printed in Chicago of course...

Exactly and it was first presented here without a link represented as a result rather than a poll.

NorthReport
wage zombie

Is there any chance that a very slim PC majority could be foiled by a few conservative MPs defecting after the election?

Pogo Pogo's picture

Defecting where?  To the NDP?  To the Liberals in order to prop up the NDP? Cuba?

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Anecdotal reports of high turnout in Ontario. If so, all bets are off.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

progressive17 wrote:

Anecdotal reports of high turnout in Ontario. If so, all bets are off.

As opposed to high turnouts in Nunavit?

bekayne

Pogo wrote:

Defecting where?  To the NDP?  To the Liberals in order to prop up the NDP? Cuba?

To a jail cell?

Pondering

progressive17 wrote:

Anecdotal reports of high turnout in Ontario. If so, all bets are off.

That's good news. I hope it's enough. It is so depressing to even consider that Ford could win.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

progressive17 wrote:

Anecdotal reports of high turnout in Ontario. If so, all bets are off.

As opposed to high turnouts in Nunavit?

I am trying to determine how this can possibly not be a non-sequitur. However, maybe I have missed something.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I took it to mean that of course the turnout is in Ontario... that's where the election is.

Pogo Pogo's picture

I took it being a post in an Ontario Election thread doesn't need to clarify the location. I think he was just adding a bit of levity with no ill will intended.

Debater

3 Ontario election polling stations to remain open late due to technical issues

The eastern Ontario riding of Glengarry-Prescott-Russell will now close at 10:30 p.m.

the Toronto-area riding of York South-Weston will now close at 9:40 p.m.

the northwest riding of Kiiwetinoong will close at 1 a.m.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4259708/ontario-election-polling-stations-technical-issues/

Misfit Misfit's picture

I think what he means by the high turnout and bets being off means that with a high turnout this could be good for the NDP. I think the NDP is going to do better than you guys think.

NorthReport

7 Ontario ridings you need to watch as results roll in on election day

https://globalnews.ca/news/4254645/ontario-election-7-ridings-watch/

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Misfit wrote:

I think what he means by the high turnout and bets being off means that with a high turnout this could be good for the NDP. I think the NDP is going to do better than you guys think.

I call it the Valerie Plante effect, which I witnessed with my own eyes. Up until the end, the polls gave it to Louis XIV Coderre.

Pondering

Did high turnout impact the NDP wins in BC and Alberta?

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Did high turnout impact the NDP wins in BC and Alberta?

Both saw slightly higher turnout. BC was 60% up from 57% and Alberta highest since 1993 at 58% was up from 54%.

In both cases it was a change election that was considered competative. I am sure this is both as well. I am not sure if that is an indication of a good result.

Debater

progressive17 wrote:

Misfit wrote:

I think what he means by the high turnout and bets being off means that with a high turnout this could be good for the NDP. I think the NDP is going to do better than you guys think.

I call it the Valerie Plante effect, which I witnessed with my own eyes. Up until the end, the polls gave it to Louis XIV Coderre.

Actually, the polls showed Plante pulling ahead of Coderre going into the final week.

So Plante's win was not a surprise by Election Day, although the margin of the win was a bit of a surprise.

NorthReport
Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Certainly we can keep hoping that one day an election will have an unexpectedly high turnout because so many of the candidates are awesome and win support at the polls.  Meanwhile, though, I think high turnout continues to correlate with a Candidate Who Must Be Stopped (and that candidate's supporters, who don't want him/her stopped).

I don't know if today is about "who would make the best Premier?" so much as "should Doug Ford be Premier?".

NorthReport

2.5 hours and counting!

NorthReport

If you had to choose one riding as a bellweather riding which one would it be?

Ottawa Centre?

NorthReport

Andrea's outfit today would be a hit, at least in Western Canada!

NorthReport

The election coverage tonite will be competing with what could be the Caps first Stanley Cup! 

Washington did make it to the Stanley Cup finals once before in 1998 but were beaten by the Detroit Red Wings. 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
The election coverage tonite will be competing with what could be the Caps first Stanley Cup!

It's not the only vote today, either.

NorthReport
NorthReport

What losing “recognized party” status could mean for the Liberals

ANALYSIS: If the Liberals end up with fewer than eight MPPs after this week’s election, they risk losing their official status — and that could have serious consequences

https://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/what-losing-recognized-party-sta...

lagatta4

Don't deserve dogs... next time you call someone a bitch... Any of us involved in animal rescue has seen bitches - and mamma cats - doing their utmost for their wee ones.

SocialJustice101

The ONDP did lose official party status after McGuinty's 1st election.  And apparently, it's not the end of the world.

NorthReport

Polls close in 1 hour and then apparently results will come in fast and furious. 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
apparently results will come in fast and furious.

Provincial elections in Ontario are a nice hybrid of paper and electronic.  When you vote (on paper), your ballot is immediately scanned, right into a waiting "ballot box".  It's like a shredder, that scans instead of shredding.

The paper record is there in the box, if needed, but the results don't have to wait for minions pulling ballots out of a barrel and ticking off "one for this party" and "one for that party" after polls close.

NorthReport

1/2 hour left to post your seat totals and your vote percentages forecast

JKR

NDP: 61
PC: 60
LIB: 2
GRN: 1

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
1/2 hour left to post your seat totals and your vote percentages forecast

To put that another way, 30 minutes left to guess how many jellybeans in the jar.

Winner gets a big jar of jellybeans!

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

If you had to choose one riding as a bellweather riding which one would it be?

Ottawa Centre?

Orleans.

It has voted the way of the winning party for the past 2 decades, both provincially and federally.

Misfit Misfit's picture

NR! I would rather have dogs than Conservatives in office. did you not notice how loving and helpful that nice dog was to the little child?  What a lovely dog. 

NorthReport

Misfit

I’m still chuckling about your response. Yea, families are indeed fortunate to have a pet!

NorthReport

Wow polls close in less than 10 minutes. Good luck everyone!

Cody87

Debater wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

If you had to choose one riding as a bellweather riding which one would it be?

Ottawa Centre?

Orleans.

It has voted the way of the winning party for the past 2 decades, both provincially and federally.

Peterborough has since 1977. And I bet it will tonight as well.

NorthReport

Looks like a disaster!

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