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Ontario budget , 2012 - thread #3

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Lord Palmerston
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Joined: Jan 25 2004

"Cheering crowd"?  Hardly, in Horwath's case.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

I'm not sure why anyone would be heckling Horwatch - she seems to be the best thing that's happened to the ONDP in about 20 years!


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

TheStar wrote:
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath says the Liberals' surprise $275 million boost for child care and disabled benefits is "a very positive sign" on the eve of Tuesday's key budget vote. ...

Horwath said a sticking point remains the Liberals' opposition to a wealth surtax on people making more than $500,000 a year.

Hudak itching for an election 7 months after the last one costing $100 million taxpayer dollars. Tories must think they can pull out a phony majority in old conservative Ontario.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

Lord Palmerston wrote:

"Cheering crowd"?  Hardly, in Horwath's case.

 

She's a traitor to the cause. I was just telling someone the other day how socialism in one province after 30 years of neoliberalism ...


Freedom 55
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Joined: Mar 14 2010

Stockholm wrote:

I'm not sure why anyone would be heckling Horwatch - she seems to be the best thing that's happened to the ONDP in about 20 years!

 

Even if one believed that to be the case, what's in the party's best interest isn't necessarily in the province's best interest.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

I wonder if Andrea has seen this one at Chapters?


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

"The very least we can ask for is that the very top earners in Ontario put in a little bit more when times are tough." - A. Horwath

Yes, Andrea, that is the very least you can ask for. But I'm sure you'll support the budget even if you don't get even that.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

You should start a party. I'd vote for you.


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

I doubt it.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

What, you doubt that you'd start a party?

 Or do you doubt I would vote for your socialist principles and ignore the fact that you wouldn't have a snowball's chance of being elected by first past the post in old conservative Ontario? Because you could promise anything you wanted to for your first four-year term in power and never have to provide a cost assessment for your platform. That would be ideal. But we could at least appear to be socialists in the process.

On second thought there are too many safe ridings in old, bankrupt conservative Ontario. I think we should stay put and carry on heckling Andrea.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Agreed bout Horwath!

Stockholm wrote:

I'm not sure why anyone would be heckling Horwatch - she seems to be the best thing that's happened to the ONDP in about 20 years!


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Agreed 'bout Horwath!

Stockholm wrote:

I'm not sure why anyone would be heckling Horwatch - she seems to be the best thing that's happened to the ONDP in about 20 years!


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

I think there are some who just want to see Hudak take another swing at the fpp'ian cat just 7 months after the last car wreck of an election. They think that 4,000,000+ Ontarians AWOL from the last election will magically turn up at the polls, even though many of them were disabused of their efforts to vote years ago.

And then they would lay blame squarely on Horwath's shoulders for the conservatives being elected to phony majority dictatorial power in old bankrupt conservative Ontario. I think it's that they just don't like Andrea Horwath very much. 


ygtbk
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Joined: Jul 16 2009

Dalton has agreed to a key ONDP tax demand:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1166296--ontario-bud...

This is unsurprising. He has now run three times with a campaign promise not to raise taxes and each time he has broken his promise.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

TheStar wrote:
The surtax would cost someone making $600,000 an extra $3,120 annually and would affect about 31,000 wealthy Ontarians.

They won't even feel it.


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

How does a 2% surcharge on income above $500,000 cost an extra $3,120 to someone making $600,000??

Has McGuilty said what he's going to do with the money? Pay down the deficit?


ygtbk
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Joined: Jul 16 2009

Fidel wrote:

TheStar wrote:
The surtax would cost someone making $600,000 an extra $3,120 annually and would affect about 31,000 wealthy Ontarians.

They won't even feel it.

The surtax shows a fundamental lack of seriousness about the provincial deficit, his figleaf on this issue. Suppose the average Ontarian making more than $500,000 makes (horseback guess) $750,000. Then the extra annual revenue from the surtax is about 31,000 * 0.0312 * $250,000 = $240 million. (The $570 million number has always been a fantasy.) This is 1/20th of what could be raised by taking the provincial portion of HST to 10%, bringing us back to the combined federal/provincial sales tax level we had in 2005.

In other words, not only is he breaking his promise not to raise taxes, he's being completely innumerate about it.

On the other hand, it's very good politics. Ontario's population is about 13.4 million, and there's only 31,000 taxpayers targetted by this measure. Making promises to 99.75% of the population based on taking from 0.25% of the population works beautifully in a democracy. 


ygtbk
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Joined: Jul 16 2009

M. Spector wrote:

How does a 2% surcharge on income above $500,000 cost an extra $3,120 to someone making $600,000??

Has McGuilty said what he's going to do with the money? Pay down the deficit?

There's a surtax in Ontario. The 2% talking point number is actually 1.56 * 2% = 3.12% in real life.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

I don't know where you get all your numbers ygtbk, but you're confirming my prejudices. Still I'm glad there is a proposal to make the income tax system slightly more progressive after years of Harrisite policies.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

The Liberals only need one vote to pass their budget. If Horwath has made a deal, she should show her leadership and cast that vote herself. If they wanted to, the rest of the NDP caucus could abstain.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

or vote against it.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

ygtbk wrote:
 (The $570 million number has always been a fantasy.) This is 1/20th of what could be raised by taking the provincial portion of HST to 10%, bringing us back to the combined federal/provincial sales tax level we had in 2005.

According to economist Erin Weir, Informetrica calculated the "$570 million estimate using Statistics Canada's Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (Version 18.1)"


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

well Howard, I would hope that other NDP MPPs stood with the leader and voted the same way - it's called solidarity.


ygtbk
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Joined: Jul 16 2009

Fidel wrote:

ygtbk wrote:
 (The $570 million number has always been a fantasy.) This is 1/20th of what could be raised by taking the provincial portion of HST to 10%, bringing us back to the combined federal/provincial sales tax level we had in 2005.

According to economist Erin Weir, Informetrica calculated the "$570 million estimate using Statistics Canada's Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (Version 18.1)"

I'll see your Erin Weir and raise you a Kevin Milligan, since no details of the Infometrica calculations are available:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0App-Y0SS83SndDlTYlRKY01qVTB...

Look at cell D82, then D85. Even assuming no behavioural response the ONDP estimate is high: assuming a reasonable behavioural response (I can't believe I just said that about an assumption that came from Paul Krugman) it's high by a factor of two.

Since it looks like we're going to run the experiment in real life I guess we'll find out who's the better economist.


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

ygtbk wrote:

M. Spector wrote:

How does a 2% surcharge on income above $500,000 cost an extra $3,120 to someone making $600,000??

Has McGuilty said what he's going to do with the money? Pay down the deficit?

There's a surtax in Ontario. The 2% talking point number is actually 1.56 * 2% = 3.12% in real life.

In other words, the Star was wrong to call it a 2% surtax. It's a 2% increase in the tax rate, which is then subject to the existing surtax of 56%.

The Star has now updated their article to say, "...with all proceeds going toward paying down the $15.2 billion deficit."

So the one thing that Horwath was successful in prying out of McGuilty will not do anything to benefit the victims of his austerity program. It will all go to the bondholders and Bay Street high rollers who have been financing the provincial deficit. 


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

janfromthebruce wrote:

well Howard, I would hope that other NDP MPPs stood with the leader and voted the same way - it's called solidarity.

...based on the time-honoured principle that when the leader surrenders to the enemy, so does everyone else.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

M. Spector wrote:

ygtbk wrote:

M. Spector wrote:

How does a 2% surcharge on income above $500,000 cost an extra $3,120 to someone making $600,000??

Has McGuilty said what he's going to do with the money? Pay down the deficit?

There's a surtax in Ontario. The 2% talking point number is actually 1.56 * 2% = 3.12% in real life.

In other words, the Star was wrong to call it a 2% surtax. It's a 2% increase in the tax rate, which is then subject to the existing surtax of 56%.

The Star has now updated their article to say, "...with all proceeds going toward paying down the $15.2 billion deficit."

So the one thing that Horwath was successful in prying out of McGuilty will not do anything to benefit the victims of his austerity program. It will all go to the bondholders and Bay Street high rollers who have been financing the provincial deficit. 

 

Yeah but it's at least lowering the debt by some paltry amount.  Liberals and Tories same old stories are bought and paid-for hirelings whose job descriptions are to increase the debt on behalf of Bay Streeters and bond salesmen not stop or even lower it. 

The new business plan is this:

debt = wealth creation

And public debt is considered premium debt. The ONDP are throwing a fuck into "wealth creation" in Ontario albeit a small one.

 


ygtbk
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Joined: Jul 16 2009

M. Spector wrote:

In other words, the Star was wrong to call it a 2% surtax. It's a 2% increase in the tax rate, which is then subject to the existing surtax of 56%.

I agree with you on this point. It's an increase in the nominal top marginal rate, which then goes through the surtax calculation, so that 2% becomes 3.12%. The ONDP messaging on this has been less than completely clear. 


Freedom 55
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Joined: Mar 14 2010

janfromthebruce wrote:

it's called solidarity.

 

ITT austerity is called solidarity.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

There really is a Walt Disney Party in Ontario. And they promised all kinds of wonderful things since electioneering in 2003. They promised things you wouldn't believe. And now their leader's nose is too long by a half. 

If you want more "wealth creation" in Ontario, make sure not to vote NDP. We'll all be wealthy in no time at all.


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