Ontario election 2011 - pre-campaign thread

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Stockholm
Ontario election 2011 - pre-campaign thread

I think now is as good a time as any to have a general thread on the build up to the campaign. The ONDP announced another chunk of its environmental platform today. (so much more those Liberal agent provocateurs who tried to imply that the NDP had no environmental platform)

http://ontariondp.com/en/new-democrats-will-help-households-making-affor...

In other news a new Ipsos poll has Tory support falling to 38%, the Liberals up to 35% and the NDP up a smidgen to 23% (Greens seem to have fallen off the map to 3%)

edmundoconnor

I've been playing whack-a-mole with Liberal staffers on Twitter, and have firmly been crossed off the holiday card list of Adam Goldenberg (staffer to Glen Murray), amongst others. It's rather comical to see Liberals berate the ONDP for their platform while eliding over the fact they have not released their platform.

In my adopted riding of York South–Weston, things are going great. Paul Ferreira has been pounding the pavement since February, and aims to knock on every door in the riding by Labour Day. I'm not going to go too much in specifics, but we're been preparing for the campaign for some time. In one poll, Paul got 52 sign requests. I'm going out again today to canvass with him.

Life, the unive...

Liberal environmentalism = Melancthon mega quarry

As my father would have said Liberals don't have a pot to piss in.   They should do themselves a favour and shut up because their overwhelming hypocrisy is showing.

Sean in Ottawa

I had to unfollow Adam Goldenberg because he is just too obnoxious

Stockholm

I agree, that guy has to be one of the most obnoxiously partisan and abrasive people in the entire blogosphere.

Doug

The Liberals have had another oops, having to cancel a $420,000 contact for someone to select art for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT line.

 

As if there weren't artists and other art experts who'd do that for a fraction of the cost.

lil.Tommy

http://ontariondp.com/en/ruralontario

 

Agricultural policy release... in a targeted riding of Essex of all places :)

 Also i emailed about why i couldn't see MPPs or candidates nominated on the main page of the ndp site... pretty fast reply too, within an hour. Its being worked on, but lack of resoures again. After the election i hope that wont be an issue anymore :) I asked because the Liberals and Tories already have that info up on their sites

Life, the unive...

Wow an awful lot of that sounds like Grant Robertson from Huron-Bruce, even the language reminds me of his old weekly commentary series when he was head of the NFU.  Wonder why he didn't get the nod for the release, especially since two of the last three Agriculture Ministers come from this riding.   Hope they rectify that with a leader's stop during the campaign.  

Farmpunk

Yes, there is certainly some Robertson in the platform.

Unfortunately, at the same press conference in Essex, outside of Kingsville in fact, Horwath had to ask how to pronounce the farmer's name, the same farmer on who's land she was standing, who was standing beside her.

She also couldn't pronounce the name of the Essex candidate.

The ag policy has some decent sound bites in it, but she couldn't flesh it out.  She had some strong comments about reviewing OMAFRA.

I'd be calling into question her PR handlers. 

Life, the unive...

Well to be fair Taras Natyshak is a fairly easy name to stumble over- to the exent that Taras put out a pretty funny video in the federal election.

 

After reading the OMAFRA bit again I am more convinced than ever that Grant Robertson's finger prints are all over- what to be honest is the first decent ag platform I have ever seen out of the NDP- and that he is due at least one campaign stop, no matter how many times Horwath comes here before the election.

Paul Gross

I'd like to know who paid for this bus shelter advertisement at the corner of Baseline and Prince of Wales in Ottawa. It seems a thinly disguised election ad for Ottawa Centre Liberal MPP Yasir Naqvi paid for the Ontario taxpayer. There is no disclosure of who paid for the ad. The ad features Naqvi's constituency office phone number and MPP web address, both of which are paid for using public funds (as opposed to party-paid election campaign offices and web sites.)

Furthermore:

- There is no public interest served by spending taxpayer money on this message.

- The ad directs people to Naqvi's web site, which is mainly about promoting him. Naqvi is not associated with the Ministry of Health

- The ad is running advance of the October 6 provincial election. The election campaigning and advertising start September 7.

- This ad is strategically placed at a high traffic intersection in Ottawa Centre, a Liberal held riding where the NDP are very strong challengers.

- A quick google of "buster still can't bowl" (with quotation marks) reveals the exact same ad for other Liberal MPPs.

http://www.myvirtualpaper.com/doc/sun_editions-south-central/niagaraadva... for Kim Craitor MPP for Niagara Falls

http://virtual.strathroyagedispatch.com/doc/Strathroy-Age-Dispatch/focus... for Lambton-Kent-Middlesex MPP Maria Van Bommel.

It's apparently a province-wide campaign for vulnerable Liberal MPPs. The Liberals came third in all three ridings in the recent federal election.

- What's more, the Liberal are coordinating their re-election campaigns with the government paid advertising. Googling "Knee replacement wait times reduced by 245 days." yields election web sites for many Liberal candidate.
http://www.google.ca/search?q=Knee+replacement+wait+times+reduced+by+245...

There is even a video with Dotty in place of Buster: http://www.youtube.com/Liberalontario#p/u/7/M6LBHaN5GiE

edmundoconnor

I noticed that very same ad at the corner of Yonge and Finch in Toronto, except replaced by David Zimmer (Willowdale MPP). Notice how the MPP's name is helpfully coloured Liberal burgundy. Note also how neither the Government of Ontario logo nor the Ontario Liberal Party logo appears, thus making it very far from clear who paid for these ads.

I also don't think Willowdale has been the only riding getting a newsletter from their Liberal MPP in both July and August this year (after months of zero newsletters) is at all a coincidence. This is as shameless as it is obvious.

Doug

An interesting strategic decision from Toronto Centre's Tories. Their literature is attacking the NDP and not the incumbent Liberals.

Stockholm

That is bizarre - can you tell us more about what they are actually putting out?

I can see the Tories attacking the NDP in some ridings because i think that there is an anti-McGuinty vote that could swing either NDP or PC. But Toronto Centre is not that kind of place. There are Liberal-PC swing voters north of Bloor and there are Liberal-NDP swing voters south of Bloor. I don't think there are many PC-NDP switchers in Toronto Centre.

Anonymouse

PCs probably can't win Toronto Centre unless there is a crazy 3-way split; could PC polling indicate the NDP are the front-runners in Toronto Centre?

boomerbsg

Walking through Rosedale and More Park today and I'm noticing a lot of "Stop the Quarry" signs. At first I was surprised but on second thought preserving the countryside is a very Red Tory issue. Most of those old money families have "farms" in Caledon.

Dufferin-Caledonians who vote Tory are a combination of old WASP Ontario (minority and in the country) and new Harper Conservatives (in places like Bolton and new suburbs)

The WASP conservatives in Dufferin are leading the charge against the quarry.

Rosedale and More Park (and Lawrence Park lots of signs there too) are the last bastions of WASP Toronto and they do vote Liberal as well as Tory... wonder what this could mean for the NDP if those Blue Grits move over to the Tories and start splitting the vote.

Could we see a 1990 again?

Could St Paul's and Don Valley West go blue and Toronto Centre go orange???

Stockholm

Anonymouse wrote:

PCs probably can't win Toronto Centre unless there is a crazy 3-way split; could PC polling indicate the NDP are the front-runners in Toronto Centre?

 

In the federal election the Tories were a distant third - even while they were sweeping Ontario with 44% of the vote. I think Toronto Centre is just about the most unwinnable seat in Ontario for the PCs.

edmundoconnor

Anonymouse wrote:

PCs probably can't win Toronto Centre unless there is a crazy 3-way split; could PC polling indicate the NDP are the front-runners in Toronto Centre?

I'll buy packing peanuts for Glen Murray. Who's got tape?

edmundoconnor

boomerbsg wrote:

Rosedale and More Park (and Lawrence Park lots of signs there too) are the last bastions of WASP Toronto

I'll say. When Chris Moise went campaigning in Rosedale in 2010, he delighted in telling his campaign team about the stares he got simply by being very non-white.

edmundoconnor

Any word on whether Pam Taylor is helping the PCs out this time? Or is she still persona non grata over her antics on the Andy Barrie show?

adma

I thought she was bidding for another seat (Willowdale?), but I could be wrong.

Anyway...

there's something that seems so fatally false and forced about the family picture on Hudak's bus, most of all in how it shoehorns Deb Hutton into the commonplace "loving wife and mom" role...

Stockholm

Check out this Ontario NDP video - obviously they hired the same guy who did something similar for the federal NDP in April...its good but odd that there is no mention of Andrea Horwath.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnLNpz3dw_I&feature=player_embedded#!

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
Check out this Ontario NDP video - obviously they hired the same guy who did something similar for the federal NDP in April

It was evident for a long time that the federal campaign was treated as a dress rehearsal for the Ontario provincial election. I'd love to see the impact of all those NDP seats up north on the provincial scene.

nicky

This may get interesting. From the Toronto Star today:

 

Ontario is on the cusp of a lively provincial election that any major party leader could win, a new Toronto Star-Angus Reid Public Opinion poll suggests.

With the Oct. 6 campaign officially kicking off next Wednesday, Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak is at 38 per cent, Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty is at 31 per cent and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is at 24 per cent. Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner trails with 6 per cent.

"This race is still very much up in the air," Jaideep Mukerji, managing director at Angus Reid, said Tuesday.

"The Tories clearly have an edge, but it is conceivable that any one of the parties could pull ahead," said Mukerji, emphasizing one especially ominous finding in the poll for the governing Liberals: 56 per cent of voters feel it is time for a new government.

"There's really an overwhelming desire for change in the province right now," he said.

Only 24 per cent said the Liberals should be re-elected with 20 per cent responding that they were unsure if there's a need for change.

Stockholm

Check out the full regional results of the AR poll

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/2011.08.31_Ontario_...

Looking good for the NDP in north, 416 and hamilton-Niagara

lil.Tommy

List of so-far nominated candidates is up... i'm happy to see that!

http://ontariondp.com/en/candidates

Life, the unive...

Stockholm wrote:

Check out the full regional results of the AR poll

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/2011.08.31_Ontario_...

Looking good for the NDP in north, 416 and hamilton-Niagara

 

Usual caution about polls...

That said

If you take out the NDP deadzones of the 905 and Eastern Ontario, this election starts at something that gets pretty close to looking like a dead heat.  No wonder Liberals are dropping bricks.  With some campaign attention to southwestern Ontario and ridings like Huron-Bruce, Bruce Grey Owen Sound, Essex, Brant, Guelph, Kitchener, London-Fanshawe  (in no particular order) and a few others, those numbers could tighten even more.

Stockholm

...and now there is a new poll by Forum reported in the National Post this morning: PCs slip again to 35% and the Liberals and NDP each inch up a couple of points to 30% and 26% respectively. This is getting very interesting!

knownothing knownothing's picture
Farmpunk

The campaigns has been slow to kick off.  But I suspect next week there's going to be all sorts of action starting up.  

Or not.

There are entrenched Con candidates in Oxford, Haldimand Norfolk, Hardeman and Barrett.  I don't expect change in those ridings.  I haven't been following London that closely.  But Ramal has strong support in London-Fanshawe.  Deb Matthews isn't doing that bad after being handed the health care hot potatoe.  

But Steve Peters is gone in Elgin and he was in there mainly because of his iron-clad support from people in St Thomas who remember him keeping his job bagging groceries when he became the youngest mayor in Canada (Ontari0?).  Pupatello isn't running in Windsor-West.  The PCs were openly courting Windsor Mayor Eddie Francais (he bluntly turned down the Libs).

I'd say those are two ridings to watch in the southwest: Elgin and Windsor West.  They are up for grabs.

Hudak doesn't appear to have to same sort of conservative edge to his stump, yet.   

lil.Tommy

Farmpunk wrote:

The campaigns has been slow to kick off.  But I suspect next week there's going to be all sorts of action starting up.  

Or not.

There are entrenched Con candidates in Oxford, Haldimand Norfolk, Hardeman and Barrett.  I don't expect change in those ridings.  I haven't been following London that closely.  But Ramal has strong support in London-Fanshawe.  Deb Matthews isn't doing that bad after being handed the health care hot potatoe.  

But Steve Peters is gone in Elgin and he was in there mainly because of his iron-clad support from people in St Thomas who remember him keeping his job bagging groceries when he became the youngest mayor in Canada (Ontari0?).  Pupatello isn't running in Windsor-West.  The PCs were openly courting Windsor Mayor Eddie Francais (he bluntly turned down the Libs).

I'd say those are two ridings to watch in the southwest: Elgin and Windsor West.  They are up for grabs.

Hudak doesn't appear to have to same sort of conservative edge to his stump, yet.   

Essex will also be in play; Liberal Crozier retired and then died so its an open seat, but the NDP have former federal candidate Taras Natyshak and the tories hold it federally. This might be one riding that becomes a Tory/NDP fight.

 

Stockholm

I think Essex is also very much up for grabs in the southwest. Its Liberal held, but the incumbent died recently and after the way the federal Liberals were annhilated in Essex in May, I expect a close two way race there between the Tory and the New Democrat with the liberals totally out of the picture.

Life, the unive...

I'm starting to think voting Liberal is becoming the new dirty little secret.  I can't find anyone, besides hard core partisans, openly admitting they will be voting Liberal in my riding.   I suspect some will of course, but I get the sense, as I did before the federal election that Liberal support, where it exists, is very, very soft and it won't take much of a push to move it.  And I am represented by a cabinet minister, who has been using taxpayer money to campaign.  In backbencher seats that support will be even softer.  The most common comment I get, even from Liberals, about our MPP is that "she's toast."

Howard

PCs 35% Lib 30% NDP 26%

Forum Poll

Aristotleded24

Life, the universe, everything wrote:
I'm starting to think voting Liberal is becoming the new dirty little secret.  I can't find anyone, besides hard core partisans, openly admitting they will be voting Liberal in my riding.   I suspect some will of course, but I get the sense, as I did before the federal election that Liberal support, where it exists, is very, very soft and it won't take much of a push to move it.  And I am represented by a cabinet minister, who has been using taxpayer money to campaign.  In backbencher seats that support will be even softer.  The most common comment I get, even from Liberals, about our MPP is that "she's toast."

Even though this clip is not in Ontario's majority language and specifically speaks to what's happening one province over, I think the general theme applies:

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F73mSyeL3j0]Free Ontario From The Liberals![/url]

adma

Farmpunk wrote:
There are entrenched Con candidates in Oxford, Haldimand Norfolk, Hardeman and Barrett.  I don't expect change in those ridings.  I haven't been following London that closely.  But Ramal has strong support in London-Fanshawe.  Deb Matthews isn't doing that bad after being handed the health care hot potatoe.

Given how the Grits are doing provincially, Ramal's "strong support" ain't likely to be strong enough (and given the federal representation, it's obviously low-hanging NDP fruit, though I'd rather strategically see it as a three-way).

Quote:
I'd say those are two ridings to watch in the southwest: Elgin and Windsor West.  They are up for grabs.

Besides the already-mentioned Essex, I don't see why Dwight Duncan's Windsor-Tecumseh should be out of the picture--esp. considering how Dave Cooke used to be bombproof there.  For giant-killer fetishists, he ought to be plainly in the crosshairs.

And don't forget in between Windsor and London: Chatham-Kent Essex (Pat Hoy retiring; Con federally w/Grit in third) and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex (which probably already would have switched in 2007 were John Tory not so unappetizingly blue-blood-Torontonian a PC leader)

2Gyor

Howard wrote:

PCs 35% Lib 30% NDP 26%

Forum Poll

Hudak has no charisma and Andrea is still a relatively unknow and Mcguinity has been only challenged to date in adds on being the "Tax Man", yet if you look at the desire for change, only 24 percent of the liberals 30 persent believe he actually deserves to be reelected. A large portion of the Liberal vote is just parked there for now. Even some of Hudak's vote could taken by the NDP as he's not catching on. Andrea is the most charismatic leader and the only one willing to protect the economy.

lil.Tommy

2Gyor wrote:

Howard wrote:

PCs 35% Lib 30% NDP 26%

Forum Poll

Hudak has no charisma and Andrea is still a relatively unknow and Mcguinity has been only challenged to date in adds on being the "Tax Man", yet if you look at the desire for change, only 24 percent of the liberals 30 persent believe he actually deserves to be reelected. A large portion of the Liberal vote is just parked there for now. Even some of Hudak's vote could taken by the NDP as he's not catching on. Andrea is the most charismatic leader and the only one willing to protect the economy.

And thats why you will only see one debate... Andrea is untested, and so is Hudak. BUT Andrea is far more, as you say, charasmatic. More importantly shes the most likeable and real of the three. Dalton will be either in defense mode or aggressive fearmonger/mud-slinger mode.

 

edmundoconnor

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

I'm starting to think voting Liberal is becoming the new dirty little secret.  I can't find anyone, besides hard core partisans, openly admitting they will be voting Liberal in my riding.   I suspect some will of course, but I get the sense, as I did before the federal election that Liberal support, where it exists, is very, very soft and it won't take much of a push to move it.  And I am represented by a cabinet minister, who has been using taxpayer money to campaign.  In backbencher seats that support will be even softer.  The most common comment I get, even from Liberals, about our MPP is that "she's toast."

Especially in York South-Weston, where Albanese is so buried in the backbenches her seat is on Spadina Ave.

Lord Palmerston

There's a contested nomination in Thornhill:

Quote:
A battle is brewing among Thornhill NDP supporters over who will represent the party in the upcoming provincial election.
Simon Strelchik, a long-time Thornhill resident who ran at the federal level for the NDP in May, is faced with a challenge for the provincial candidacy by Barry Weisleder, 58, a Toronto-based substitute teacher and writer/editor who joined the New Democrats 43 years ago. 

http://www.yorkregion.com/news/article/1074149--two-vie-for-thornhill-nd...

Stockholm

I can already see where this is leading. Weisleder lives in downtown Toronto and has no ties whatsoever to Thornhill. The only reason he wants to run there is because he's fanatically anti-Israel and so he wants to run in a heavily Jewish riding that way he create as much controversy as possible, draw attention to himself and ideally to incite disturbances at all-candidates meetings etc...The ONDP would dodge a hube bullet and save itself from being taken wayyyy off message by his rants if they immediately disallow his candidacy.

Life, the unive...

The link was broke, but just going to the site gives you a story about how he won.   So it looks like locals supported him. If he was allowed to run he must have passed the vetting process.  

 I don't know who he is from a hole in the ground, but if he is a loose cannon, someone better reign him in if it threatens other campaigns, such as the one in my riding, because the NDP has to focus on damage control instead of the other parties and its own message.    The days are gone where a controvesy in one riding doesn't spill over into all others.

 

Lord Palmerston

He got the nomination.

bekayne
Policywonk
Lord Palmerston

Having Barry Weisleder and Bernie Farber in the same race will be very entertaining from a babble POV.

janfromthebruce

perhaps LP, but I sure hope Berry considers all ramifications and just not himself here.

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

Stockholm wrote:

I can already see where this is leading. Weisleder lives in downtown Toronto and has no ties whatsoever to Thornhill. The only reason he wants to run there is because he's fanatically anti-Israel and so he wants to run in a heavily Jewish riding that way he create as much controversy as possible, draw attention to himself and ideally to incite disturbances at all-candidates meetings etc...The ONDP would dodge a hube bullet and save itself from being taken wayyyy off message by his rants if they immediately disallow his candidacy.

Maybe we should remove the word "Democratic" from the party name as well?   Love him or not Weisleder won the nomination in a democratic contest.

He has used whatever is left of the internal democratic structures of the party to advocate a point of view.  That's something that's quite admirable in many ways because alot of good political and social activists have just sorta said "fuck it" and turned away from the NDP.

He's also running in a riding represented by a Tory who brought forward a motion in the legislature that was an attempt to suppress the free speech rights of Ontario university students.   Not giving a rats ass about the freedom of speech of Ontario student activists isn't exactly the  message you want to send to these young people.    Ideally, I think one would want to attract this youthful energy to the NDP.

Israel/Palestine may not be a "provincial issue" as such, but the democratic right of Ontario university students to debate this and other issues very much is a provincial issue.

As well, seeing a relatively good turnout and a contested nomination meeting in a marginal riding like Thornhill is also a good thing.

So my best wishes to Barry in his campaign in Thornhill.

 

Fidel

Ya but you can't say fuck it and still claim to represent hundreds of thousands of kids living anywhere below poverty in Ontario. It's irresponsible to say fuck it to jobless northerners held ransom by the Liberals dumb-dumb policies on electrical power and being ignored by Toronto. It's irresponsible to say fuck it to the environment and all those people without affordable housing. The kids are paying highest in the country university tuition fees and saddled with mortgages without homes to show for it after four years. Why doesn't he craft a protest sign and run around Queen's Perk with it instead. He could even stuff it up his ass sideways for all the people on welfare and low income care about his obsession with federal issues. 

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

Fidel, young people aren't saying "fuck it" to any of those issues.    In fact they're very involved in exactly the issues you mention.  What they are saying "fuck it" to is getting involved in the NDP and in electoral politics in general.  You don't encourage them to get involved in electoral politics by being anti-democratic control freaks.

 

Edited to add:  

There are sitting members of NDP caucuses that I don't like all that much but I'm not suggesting, as Stockholm is, that they be removed as candidates.

 

genstrike

Fidel wrote:

 Why doesn't he craft a protest sign and run around Queen's Perk with it instead. He could even stuff it up his ass sideways for all the people on welfare and low income care about his obsession with federal issues. 

Holy shit... did Fidel just criticize an NDP candidate (in very harsh terms), only a month before an election no less!  Quick, someone circle the calendar!

You heard it here first, folks:  Fidel apparently loves Peter Shurman and the liberal, tory, same old story 22 percenter stoogeocrats!

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